Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC)

Host: Harry Stebbings
Guest: Oren Zeev, Solo Capitalist & Founder of Zeev Ventures
Episode Date: February 2, 2026
Episode Title: 50% of Funds Will Go Out of Business | Why Growth Expectations Today are BS and Will Not Last | Why Oren Zeev Takes $0 Management Fees But 30% Carry | Why GPs Should Not Tell LPs Their Strategy

Episode Overview

This episode features a candid and deeply insightful conversation between Harry Stebbings and renowned solo GP Oren Zeev, whose billion-dollar venture platform is known for its no-nonsense approach, radical LP alignment, and exceptional track record (Navan, Audible, Houzz, among others). The discussion is a masterclass on the realities of venture capital in 2026, the myths around growth and valuation, GP-LP alignment, and why being a contrarian—when right—still trumps following the herd. Oren shares hard-won lessons on market cycles, investing with conviction, the AI wave, fund construction, and his philosophy on management fees and ownership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Contrarianism and Competition in Venture

• Contrarian Wins: Oren explains why the greatest outcomes usually look "wrong" or "weird" at the time of investment, emphasizing the power of being right when going against the grain (05:10).
  • “If they look weird and they look wrong, then probably there aren’t 15 or 20 or 100 other startups doing it...if you happen to be right, then these are some of the greatest outcomes.” — Oren Zeev (05:10)
• Avoiding Competition: He avoids arenas with heavy competition from inception, echoing Peter Thiel's philosophy and noting, “If everyone is doing something, it’s a reason not to do it, not a reason to do it.” (06:36)

2. The AI Tsunami: Threat or Opportunity?

• Framework Shift: Every investment now requires questioning whether a company is an AI beneficiary or AI victim (06:44).
  • “Every single industry is going through change and whenever there is change, there’s opportunity...In the past three years, I have to ask myself, is this company a likely beneficiary of AI or not?” — Oren Zeev (07:39)
• Navan as a Case Study: Oren breaks down how AI has dramatically improved Navan’s gross margins (from 50% up, largely via AI-enabled support) and customer experience, dispelling fears about incumbent software companies being uniformly disrupted (09:08).
  • “I am 100% convinced that there is zero chance that we get disrupted by AI. And there is 100% chance that we're huge beneficiaries of AI.” — Oren Zeev (08:08)
• On Market Myths: Critiques “thought leaders” who claim incumbents are doomed by AI, stating successful adaptation (and excellent data positioning) will favor many incumbents (11:00).

3. Growth Expectations Are Overhyped

• Doubling Down on Fundamentals: Oren skewers the current obsession with astronomical growth rates—“the math doesn’t change”—arguing that sustainable, healthy growth should be paramount vs. growth for its own sake (13:21).
  • “If you have a company that can double every year for the next five years, it's going to be 32x what it is today...Compounding is the same compounding before AI and after AI.” — Oren Zeev (13:21)
• Beware Unhealthy Behaviors: Warns that extreme focus on growth encourages circular or outright unhealthy practices (16:00).

4. Funding, Fund Size, and Temporal Diversification

• Oren on Capital Concentration: Prefers concentration (up to 20% of a fund in one company), contending LP diversification at the GP level yields little (26:13).
• Deployment Pace: Gets candid about deploying too fast during the 2021 bubble (“we all did”), leading to funds with lower returns due to overpaying at peak valuations (28:10).
• Fund Size Reset: Shares that after two “bubble” funds >$500M, he's cut back to ~$250M for more optimal performance (30:43).
• Vintage Diversification: LPs in multiple Zeev funds get vintage diversification—even if a single fund is deployed quickly (29:43).

5. LP-GP Alignment: Radical Approaches

• Zero Management Fees, Huge GP Commit: Oren takes (effectively) no management fees, reinvesting any fees into the fund, and is always the largest LP in his own funds (about 13–14%) with a 30% carry (39:46).
  • “I pay myself zero...I don't see anything which is very unusual. I don't know any VC in the world as far as I know that has zero income from the management fees. Zero.” — Oren Zeev (40:23)
• GP/LP Misalignment: Critiques large funds where management fees vastly outweigh carry—creating incentives to optimize next-fund fundraising over returns (41:23).
• Partners vs. Solo GPs: Notes more partners = greater misalignment at individual decision level.

6. The Vanishing Middle & Fundraising Futures

• Barbell Venture Future: Zeev sees survival in being either a large platform (a16z, Sequoia) or a tightly differentiated smaller fund; “the messy middle will be painfully suffering” (31:18).
• 50% of Funds Will Disappear: Predicts at least 50% of VC funds on the market today won’t raise again (33:02).

7. Secondaries, DPI, and LP Reporting

• Selling Secondaries: He rarely sells and sees little logic to selling “winners” except to appease LPs focused on DPI; prefers radical LP-alignment (“I don’t want to shortchange myself as an LP” given his skin in the game). (37:39)
• On Metrics: Believes LP obsession has swung from TVPI to DPI due to the liquidity drought, but expects cycles to reset; advises judgment in trusting GPs’ marks, since reporting latitude is huge (35:46).

8. Flexible Strategies and the “No Rules” Manifesto

• No Set Ownership Targets: Oren refuses to promise or stick to rigid ownership targets or investment styles, prioritizing flexibility for the right deal—“I only have one rule, and that rule is that I have no rules.” (51:16)
• Real Example: Invested in Descartes even at low ownership and via a (cap-negotiated) SAFE, breaking his usual practice for exceptional opportunities (51:58).

9. Founder Relationships & Investor Advice

• Advice Delivery—Safe Sanctuary: He finds founders are receptive to advice when it’s offered as support, not judgment, and with no strings attached (48:11).
  • “For them, I'm a safe environment...because I never forced my advice. I’m going to support them, even if I think they’re wrong.” — Oren Zeev (48:11)
• On Ownership: Refuses to “promise” LPs a specific style so as not to be box himself in or have to justify his choices ex post facto.

10. Final Thoughts, Boom/Bust, & The AI Future

• On AI’s Power: Both excited and scared, Oren repeatedly describes AI as the “biggest change ever in the history of humanity,” with the potential for immense value-creation and social risk (56:43; 63:27).
• Wealth & Perceptions: Expresses concern that America is losing its meritocratic edge and becoming overly hostile to success (55:11).
• Misses & Regrets: Shares that he’s avoided many big regrets by not being in the mix for recent generational deals, but notes earlier career “misses” due to partnership vetoes rather than personal oversight (58:41).
• Most Admired Investor: Praises Mickey (unclear from context, but likely a respected peer in venture) for authenticity and leadership (62:11).
• What He’s Bullish On: Oren is “super bullish” on venture/AI opportunity, markets, and his own portfolio’s prospects over the coming decade (63:27).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Contrarian Investing:

• “Some level of contrarian plus being right...that’s the ingredient of great outcomes.” — Oren Zeev (05:10)

On the AI Wave:

• “Every single business is going through change and whenever there’s change, there’s opportunity...In the past three years, I have to ask myself, is this company a likely beneficiary of AI or not?” — Oren Zeev (07:39)
• “AI is the biggest change ever in the history of humanity.” — Oren Zeev (63:27)

On Management Fees:

• “I pay myself zero...I have radical alignment with LPs.” — Oren Zeev (40:23)
• “I don’t know any VC in the world...that has zero income from the management fees. Zero.” — Oren Zeev (40:23)

On GP/LP (Mis)alignment:

• “The larger the partnership, the more there is not 100% alignment...In my case, it’s just me. There’s zero conflict in my mind.” — Oren Zeev (44:00)

On Growth Myths:

• “This notion that only growth matters is a very dangerous one. And I’ve seen this movie many, many times.” — Oren Zeev (16:00)

On Fund Survival:

• “At least 50% of the funds today, and maybe more, either cannot raise or at least are not sure that they can raise. And I think many of them are not going to be able to raise.” — Oren Zeev (33:02)

On Flexibility:

• “I only have one rule, and that rule is that I have no rules.” — Oren Zeev (51:16)

On Delivering Advice:

• “I never forced my advice. So for them, I'm a safe environment.” — Oren Zeev (48:11)

On AI’s Dual Sided Impact:

• “There are very good reasons to be excited and very good reasons to be worried...if something is powerful, then it's going to be very exciting and scary at the same time.” — Oren Zeev (63:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Contrarian Investing, Avoiding Competition: 05:10–06:36
• How AI Now Shapes Every Investment Decision: 06:44–09:06
• Navan as an AI Success Story: 08:08–12:06
• Critique on Growth-At-All-Costs: 13:21–17:58
• Capital Concentration, Deployment Pace, and Fund Vintage: 26:13–30:43
• Barbell Venture Future (Big vs. Boutique): 31:18–32:57
• Half of Funds Will Disappear: 33:02–33:30
• Secondaries, DPI, and Reporting: 35:46–39:43
• Zero Management Fee Strategy: 40:23–41:18
• On Not Having a Strategy, Not Telling LPs: 51:13–53:28
• Advice to Founders: 48:11–50:52
• Most Admired Investor (Mickey): 62:11–63:17
• What Makes Oren Bullish (AI & Opportunity): 63:27–64:43

Flow and Tone

The episode is fast-paced, direct, and rich with practical wisdom. Both Stebbings and Zeev trade honest takes, push into thorny industry truths, and do not shy away from self-criticism or market critique. The conversation flows from high-level VC strategy into deep operational and philosophical territory, keeping the listener engaged with concrete anecdotes, memorable quips, and actionable frameworks.

This summary covers the substantive conversation, delivering the core lessons, context, and timestamped quotes for efficient catch-up and reference.