Podcast Summary: 20VC – Anthropic’s Super Bowl Ad, Harvey’s $200M Raise, and the Future of SaaS

Podcast: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
Host: Harry Stebbings
Panelists: Mike Cannon-Brookes (Co-founder, Atlassian), Rory, Jason
Episode Date: February 12, 2026
Episode Title: 20VC: Anthropic's Superbowl Ad: Who Won - Who Lost | Harvey Raises $200M at $11BN Valuation | Sierra Hits $150M in ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode of 20VC brings together Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes and regular panelists Rory and Jason to dissect the biggest stories in tech and venture capital from the past week. The episode explores the implications of Anthropic's enormous growth projections and high-profile Super Bowl ad, Harvey's impressive $200M raise at an $11B valuation, and the increasingly crowded customer support software landscape. The discussion centers on the evolution, challenges, and potential of SaaS in an era of rapid AI advancement, market volatility, and changing venture investment dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Anthropic’s ARR Projections and Impact on the Software Market

• Anthropic’s bold revenue forecast: The company predicts $149B in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2029 in its most optimistic scenario, with OpenAI estimating $180B in the same period. This would mean together, they’d capture over half the current global software market (~$700B).
• Time Expansion vs. Zero-Sum Game ([05:03] Rory):
  “If two companies are going to do 400 billion, then we can probably assume Microsoft, who’s already at 200 billion, gonna roll over and die ... clearly the bet is TAM expansion.”
• Stacked Revenue Complexity ([06:02] Mike):
  Revenue for large SaaS companies is layered—payments trickle through AWS and chip suppliers before reaching model providers like Anthropic.
• SaaS Vendor Strategy:
  Most SaaS vendors are multi-model, balancing cost, quality, and speed among providers (e.g., Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Llama).

2. Is All Software Spending Replacing Old Budgets? Or Growing the Pie?

• Not Zero-Sum ([08:03] Mike):
  “If your business is getting more productive ... you’re going to spend money on different things. The technology budget ... has gone up massively ... I don’t think that’s going to stop.”
• Margin Stacking and Market Expansion ([08:35] Rory):
  Growth projections only make sense if the aggregate software/services market keeps expanding rather than merely redistributing existing spend.

3. The Significance of Consulting and Systems Integration in the AI Era

• Consulting Revenue Dynamics ([10:24] Harry):
  The panel highlights the irony that consulting spend (e.g., Accenture, Deloitte) on AI implementation may outpace upside for foundational model providers—at least in the early adoption phase.
• Agent Simplicity and Democratization ([12:34] Mike):
  Most enterprises start AI adoption with small automations—learning and evolving over time, not wholesale replacement of complex work.

4. AI’s Threat (or Lack Thereof) to the SaaS Industry

• SaaS “Death” Is Overblown ([14:11] Mike):
  “Will every single SaaS company make it through the next five to ten years? Absolutely not ... Will a lot continue to grow and prosper? Absolutely. Is that any different to the last 10 years? No.”
• Winners and Losers:
  Some categories (e.g., product/engineering tools) are resilient; others (e.g., traditional support) are seeing contractions as AI automates roles.
• Step Change vs. Incremental Progress ([19:28] Mike):
  LLMs are “both” driving step changes and organic improvements, but the winners must fundamentally build new things—not just bolt on AI features.

5. RPO, Growth Rates, and the SaaS Public Market Conundrum

• RPO as the New Metric ([16:19] Mike, [18:11] Rory):
  Investors now scrutinize remaining performance obligations (RPO) to assess the durability of SaaS revenues.
• Public Market Doldrums:
  Fewer breakout SaaS IPOs and heavy private equity buyout activity cause stagnating public SaaS growth rates—masking true innovation.

6. The Harvey Raise & Debate on TAM (Total Addressable Market)

• Harvey’s $200M raise at $11B ([27:10]):
  The contradiction: Market calls software dead, yet Harvey—a legal AI SaaS—closes a massive round while incumbents’ stocks tumble.
• TAM Debate ([29:19] Jason and Mike):
  • Jason: “We have to give up on TAM. Let revenue show us the path.”
  • Mike: “Our whole job in technology is to change tam ... Harvey is a fantastic business ... whether it's worth 11 billion or whatever ... growing 300% a year at 190 ARR is fantastic.”

7. Customer Support: Overcrowded or Ready for Reinvention?

• Sierra’s Explosive Growth ([44:02] Harry):
  Sierra hits $150M in ARR after a $50M+ quarter.
• Market Segmentation ([48:16] Rory):
  • Internal vs. external support are vastly different.
  • B2B vs. B2C support diversified experiences/needs.
• AI as a Trojan Horse ([47:07] Jason):
  Support functions become organizational entry points for broader, horizontal AI agent adoption.
• Overfunding & Winner-Take-All ([53:41] Rory):
  In crowded fields, VCs pile into consensus winners rather than risking third place in a crowded vertical.

8. Anthropic vs. OpenAI – The Super Bowl Ad Wars

• Anthropic’s Super Bowl Ad ([57:31]):
  Ran a campaign lampooning OpenAI for introducing ads—a dig at ChatGPT’s consumer focus.
• Panel’s Take:
  • Rory: “Of course, they're going to run ads. It's a consumer product ... If you're going to be the enterprise product, you're not going to run ads, and that's Claude.” ([58:06])
  • Jason: Ad was about signaling to Valley engineers; real consumers didn’t care ([60:36]).
  • Mike: “It's human beings. They’ve got a lot of capital, so they make Super Bowl ads ... never happened in the history of technology before—except pets.com.” ([58:45])

9. The Public vs. Private SaaS Growth and Spend Paradigm

• Public Companies’ Constraints ([63:45] Mike):
  Public company SaaS CEOs must balance long-term innovation (especially AI investment) with demands for profitability and growth—often being outspent by unprofitable, private “maximalists.”
• Balance, Burnout, and Enjoyment ([71:47] Mike):
  The reality of leading a SaaS business in this era is hard work, constant adaptation, and the importance of intentional balance—something not every leader is cut out for by temperament or desire.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Software’s Demise Is Overstated

"The idea that software as a category is dead is ludicrous to me. It's very efficient for businesses to buy pre-canned solutions of technology."
— Mike Cannon-Brookes [14:11]

On TAM and Market Creation

"Our whole job in technology is to change TAM. Actually, like if you think about it, the TAM of technology has changed as a whole for 50 years."
— Mike Cannon-Brookes [30:02]

On SaaS Growth Cycles

"Every five years, some folks go to the wall. ... Every 10 or 15 years there's an architectural shift where ... instead of being a 5% death rate, you go through a two year period where there's a 50% death rate."
— Rory [18:11]

On Venture Herd Behavior

"It’s the venture capital equivalent of you can't get fired for buying IBM. You can't get fired for sticking money in with a 1x preference on the consensus winner. This is classic top of the bubble stuff."
— Rory [55:49]

AI and Job Automation

"Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats."
— Jason [39:48]

SaaS Survival and Enjoyment

"If you don't enjoy what you're doing, would you choose this job again today? Because it's tough out there. It's going to be hard. Welcome to the technology industry."
— Mike Cannon-Brookes [71:47]

On Super Bowl Ad Absurdity

"What's fascinating is you go to the SaaS and software world, you have financializing going on a lot because they can't afford to be maximalist ... Right now everyone is maximalist ... you get these ads."
— Mike Cannon-Brookes [61:16]

Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment / Topic | |--------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 04:40 | Anthropic ARR projection and competitive landscape | | 06:02 | SaaS vendor revenue stacking and multi-model strategy | | 10:24 | Consulting/services spend in the AI era | | 14:11 | Is the SaaS apocalypse real? Software’s enduring relevance | | 16:19 | Survival of SaaS categories: “above/below the fold” | | 18:11 | RPO as a metric, SaaS growth cycles, death rates | | 27:10 | Harvey’s $200M raise, market paradox | | 29:19 | TAM debate, path to value in new SaaS sectors | | 44:02 | Sierra’s explosive ARR, saturation in customer support | | 47:07 | Customer support as a horizontal AI agent wedge | | 53:41 | Overfunding, consensus winners, venture herding | | 57:31 | Anthropic’s Super Bowl ad vs. OpenAI, symbolism & impact| | 60:36 | Ad as signaling to Valley insiders, not consumers | | 63:45 | Public vs. private SaaS company constraints | | 71:47 | Founder/CEO burnout, need for balance, evolution |

Final Thoughts & Tone

The episode is energetic, candid, and often laced with humor or pointed sarcasm. The panelists push back on market hysteria (“software is dead”), dispel neat narratives, and urge appreciation of both incremental and radical change in SaaS. They repeatedly stress the importance of execution (“you just have to be good”), the difficulty of risk-adjusted investing, and that market expansion—not reallocation—will separate SaaS survivors from casualties in the AI era. Underpinning the entire conversation is the idea that success and sustainability require not just capital and big bets, but resilience, strategic adaptability, and yes—enjoyment, even in a world always verging on the next disruption.

For more resources, show notes, and podcast episodes, visit www.20vc.com.