Podcast Summary: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC)

Episode: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media

Host: Harry Stebbings
Guest: Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder & CEO, Kalshi
Release Date: December 8, 2025

Overview

This episode gives exclusive insight into Kalshi’s meteoric rise following their $1B raise at an $11B valuation and high-profile partnerships with CNN and CNBC. Harry Stebbings interviews Tarek Mansour, diving into Kalshi’s competition with Polymarket, the transformative potential of prediction markets, growth challenges, philosophy on brand and media, reflections on leadership under adversity, and the evolving legacy of news and trading platforms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rationale and Impact of Kalshi’s $1B Raise

• Why Raise $1B?

  • Kalshi sees a "rare shift in consumer behavior" from passive news consumption to active participation in prediction markets, likening it to "a ChatGPT moment" for the sector [05:36].
  • Tarek highlights that new classes of prediction market traders resemble the emergence of Airbnb hosts or Uber riders—an early signal of an enormous opportunity.
  • The capital will massively accelerate brand-building, international scale, and support reserve requirements as a federally regulated exchange.

• Quote:

  "We're growing at that pace...the fastest growing company in America outside of AI. And...there's a real and rare shift in consumer behavior." – Tarek [04:26]

• Use of Funds:

  • Building a global, recognizable brand.
  • Marketing and scaling the team (still only 100 employees).
  • Meeting regulatory capital requirements for increased trading volumes.

2. The Polymarket Rivalry – Competing and Growing an Industry

• Healthy Competition:
  Tarek describes the intense rivalry with Polymarket as essential:

  “An industry truly becomes an industry when there’s a rivalry. Without Polymarket, we wouldn’t have pushed our marketing and pushed our product as hard.” – Tarek [00:00, 13:08]

• Spectacle vs. Substance:
  There’s an element of “boxing” showmanship—competition makes the sector more exciting for users and supports broader industry growth.

• Learning from Rivals:

  “That infighting…is going to push both of us to scale this industry and reach heights that we honestly wouldn’t have been able to otherwise… the net winner…is these early evangelists.” – Tarek [13:08]

3. Kalshi’s Relationship to Sports Betting & Broader Markets

• Misconceptions:
  Kalshi is often mislabeled as a sports betting platform, but volumes ebb and flow with what’s trending—politics, Fed decisions, and pop culture as much as sports [07:34, 08:58].

  “The volumes will ebb and flow...whatever is in the news, whatever is trending on X, whatever is top of people’s minds.” – Tarek [07:34]

• Unique Position:

  • Kalshi aims to “financialize” diverse real-world events, not just sports.
  • Focus on underlying value—trading against other users, not a “house.”

4. Competing with Giants, and Platform as Media

• Robinhood & Incumbents:
  Tarek praises Robinhood’s execution, considering them “incredible partners” [09:25–10:51].

  • Notes legal victory against the U.S. government in 2024 as the industry's “ChatGPT moment,” sparking mainstream competition and innovation.

• Prediction Markets as Media:
  Kalshi aspires to become not only a platform but a new kind of media company—prediction markets offering more transparent, data-driven news [15:21–17:09].

• Partnerships with News (CNN, CNBC):
  These deals are early steps in embedding prediction markets into news coverage, e.g., real-time trading on election outcomes [15:31].

• Quote:

  “Prediction markets can extend the news to cover what's about to happen next, which is kind of the next sort of iteration of news.” – Tarek [15:31]

5. Brand, Distribution & Building Trust

• Brand Storytelling:

  • Kalshi will increasingly invest in telling its underdog-to-success story to inspire entrepreneurs and connect with users [15:31].
  • Emphasizes resilience as their defining trait: “You truly can will something into existence.” – Tarek [15:31]

• Early Investors and Trust:
  Despite heavy interest from top funds, Tarek protected early investors’ pro-rata rights, citing the importance of long-term relationships and reputation [27:05].

  “We’re playing a long-term, iterated infinite game. Every decision is a round… you build a reputation where people can trust you.” – Tarek [27:05]

6. Founding and Leadership Under Adversity

• Lowest Moments:
  Tarek recounts losing regulatory battles, being blocked before the 2022 midterms, losing team faith, and personally doubting survival [17:39].

  • Called his mother for support after major setbacks; “You actually feel physical pain… that hopelessness that you’re like, it is done.” [17:39]
  • Persistence paid off: eventually, Kalshi won its legal fight and saw massive growth [17:39].

• Leadership Doubt:
  Frequent, persistent doubts about scaling himself as CEO, admitting the challenge of evolving with company growth [20:03, 20:38].

• Cultural Weaknesses:
  Admits Kalshi is “a little bit chaotic” as a function of prioritizing product velocity over organization [42:18].

7. The Future of Financialization, Regulation, and Information

• Democratizing Prediction, Not Just for Pros:
  Firm belief in prediction markets as a way to “bring more truth” and open financial tools to everyone’s unique expertise, not just Wall Street [21:29].

  • Only 1–2% of users are “active traders”—the rest use Kalshi as news, not gambling [24:10].

• Quote:

  “Everyone is an expert on something... Kalshi is really a way to get them to participate in a financial market on that vertical that is their home turf.” – Tarek [21:29]

• Media Partnerships vs. Owning the Stack:
  Too early to think about cannibalizing partners—markets must first be deeply understood. Crossing into building an owned media platform is still possible down the line [24:42–25:43].

8. Reflections on Investors and Influence

• Sequoia/Alfred Lin’s Value:

  • Lin is "the antithesis of a typical VC”—nuanced, always arguing the other side, and counterbalances founder exuberance or pessimism [28:08].
  • Value of top VCs as a signal for attracting talent: “The best people want to win…having great investors is one sign…you are on a winning team.” – Tarek [30:34]

• “Wished-for” Investors:
  Names Neil Mehta, Rivet, Mickey, Founders Fund, and crossover funds as admired investors [31:40].

9. Lessons from FTX and SBF

• Regulatory-First Approach:
  Observed SBF from his MIT/early Jane Street days, but Kalshi took the opposite approach (regulation first)—and stuck to it even when unfashionable.
  • The FTX implosion validated Kalshi's conservative, compliance-forward path.

  “The only way to build something that will last…is to work with regulators, do it clean, do it right.” – Tarek [32:15–33:44]

10. Brand, Media, and the Changing Role of Founders

• Youth and Maturity:
  Concern about very young, heavily funded founders missing the humility and “chip on the shoulder” needed for prolonged perseverance [37:33–38:01].

  • Importance of remaining “the underdogs,” always self-assessing weaknesses.

• Building Brand and Product Simultaneously:
  Tarek admits: spent too long on product at the expense of marketing; both must be muscles developed in tandem [34:04–35:11].

  “Your product’s never going to be perfect...growth, marketing and brand is a muscle…it’s something you have to embed in your company.” – Tarek [34:04]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Without Polymarket, we wouldn’t have pushed our marketing and pushed our product as hard.” – Tarek [00:00, 13:08]
• “An industry truly becomes an industry when there’s a rivalry.” – Tarek [13:08]
• “I've always been unwavering in my belief: same with Luana, regulatory first. And the reason is because...the only way...to last...and truly go mainstream is to work with regulators.” – Tarek [32:15]
• “You actually feel physical pain… It's one of those moments where you kind of walk out of the office and...it is done. We're not...this is it. And I also called my mom.” – Tarek [17:39]
• “Prediction markets can extend the news to cover what's about to happen next, which is kind of the next...iteration of news.” – Tarek [15:31]
• “The best people want to win...Having great investors is one sign...you are on a winning team.” – Tarek [30:34]
• “Most people are kind of mediocre...it's really, really, really hard to find the top five 10 percenters.” – Tarek [41:31]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Why Kalshi Needs $1B/Consumer Behavior Shift — [04:26]
• Capital vs. Execution Debate — [06:30]
• Sports Betting vs. Event Markets — [07:34]
• Robinhood and Competitive Landscape — [09:25]
• Polymarket Rivalry — [11:26], [13:08]
• Partnership with CNN & CNBC, News as Next Frontier — [15:21], [15:31]
• Hardest Days & Resilience — [17:39]
• Leadership Doubts — [20:03], [20:38]
• Why Financialization Is Good — [21:29]
• Media Partnerships vs. Owning Media — [24:42], [25:43]
• Investor Relationships & Pro-Rata — [27:05]
• Sequoia’s Alfred Lin — [28:04], [28:08]
• Investor Signaling — [30:34]
• FTX & Regulatory-First Lessons — [32:15]
• Balancing Product and Marketing — [34:04]
• On Young Founders — [37:33]
• Rapid-Fire Round (Notable: Kalshi Is Not Gambling) — [39:09], [40:38]

Rapid Fire: Personality and Culture (Select Highlights)

• Prediction Market You’d Be Too Scared to List:
  Geopolitical conflicts—useful, but potentially dangerous [39:23].
• Biggest Misconception:
  Kalshi is gambling; in fact, it's an open, neutral financial market [40:38].
• Most Controversial Hiring Belief:
  “Most people are mediocre...It’s really, really hard to find the top 5-10 percenters.” [41:31]
• Culture Weakness:
  “A little bit chaotic... trading off chaos for velocity.” [42:18]

Closing Reflection

Tarek credits resilience and strategic rivalry as the bedrock of Kalshi’s growth. The episode paints a nuanced portrait of what it takes to scale a high-velocity, regulated fintech startup, and hints at the lasting impact prediction markets may have on both finance and traditional media.

For further details, refer to [specific timestamps] above or visit 20vc.com.