The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): OGs Roundtable – SpaceX at $800B, Harvey’s $8B Raise, Airwallex v Ramp, Netflix Buys Warner Brothers, IPO Market in 2026

Guests:

• Host: Harry Stebbings
• Rory O’Driscoll (Scale Venture Partners)
• Jason Lemkin (SaaStr)

Release Date: December 11, 2025

Overview

This high-energy roundtable delivers unfiltered, rapid-fire takes on some of the most explosive stories and trends in tech and VC as 2025 closes out. Harry, Rory, and Jason riff (and sometimes spar) over SpaceX’s jaw-dropping $800B valuation, the return of mega-IPOs in 2026, AI startup euphoria (Harvey, Anthropic, Databricks), Netflix's blockbuster pursuit of Warner Brothers, and the East/West intrigue around Airwallex's new funding. The mood: spicy, candid, and full of inside baseball wisdom about valuations, markets, and what’s real versus hype.

Key Topics & Insights

1. SpaceX $800B Valuation & Mega Secondaries

[04:45–7:52]

• Harry kicks off: SpaceX is pursuing an $800B valuation in a new secondary sale, raising eyebrows across venture land.

• Rory’s assessment:

  "It's an amazing company. But $800 billion for $15 billion of revenue growing at 30%... that's a pretty hefty valuation, north of 40 times run rate." (05:00) He attributes much of the price to the ‘Elon magic’ and Starlink's potential, but points out it’s “not obvious math.”

• Jason relates to IPO prospects:

  • SpaceX's scale will dwarf any IPOs of recent years.
  • Wonders about the ‘retail premium’ for such household names as SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks entering public markets.

• Emotion vs. Reality:

  • Rory muses on private-market “high water marks”:

    “Does it make IPOs... emotionally unattractive when the public market values you below your last secondary price?” (07:16)

  • Jason and Rory agree that down rounds are now 'baked in' for big growth rounds:

    "Private market valuations were found wanting every time they met public markets.” (08:01 Rory)

2. 2026 IPO Market – Will It Roar Back?

[10:16–15:44]

• Harry asks: Will 2026 be “the year of IPOs” with Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, SpaceX lining up?
• Rory’s math:
  • These three alone equal $1.4T market cap; VCs could see $700B returned.
  • Power laws mean a couple of giant IPOs can dwarf dozens of smaller ones.

  “It only takes one or two at the top of the power law to go public.” (10:36)

  • Notes: Even if these IPOs come out down 20-40% from their last round, it'd still be a “spectacular year.”
• Jason: Markets have normalized to the idea of ‘down’ IPOs – risk is part of the business model.
• More nuance from Rory:
  • "As I look at $800B pre for a $15B revenue business... in the absence of the Elon premium, I think that price would look pretty sick in the public markets." (09:37)

3. Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe: IPO Forecasts and Bets

[15:44–19:10]

• Betting on IPO Values:
  • Jason predicts Anthropic IPOs at $500B (“20x revenue isn’t even that high at the top end”)
  • Rory is more conservative: $350B.
  • Harry splits the difference at $420B.
  • Explains rationale: “At this scale, if [Anthropic] has 3x growth in the bag, it’s a great time to IPO” (16:28 Jason)

4. Netflix Bids for Warner Brothers – Industry Implications

[19:10–26:35]

• Rory’s take: Signals Netflix has “won” the content/streaming war, now able to make a ~$100B acquisition with <20% dilution.

  “Netflix is a $470B company. Paramount is $20B. They are massively outmatched competitors.” (19:29)

• Regulatory & political hurdles:
  • Regulatory pushback happens, but Netflix is more likely to close; Paramount needs outside financing.
  • Unique risk here: not just consumer harm, but Hollywood's fear of Netflix as a monopsony (sole buyer of content).
  • “Hollywood hates the Netflix deal... If Netflix becomes the biggest buyer of content, creators lose leverage.” (22:09 Rory)
• Outsider vs. Incumbent:
  • Tech is eating legacy industries; “yet another industry rolled over and died.”
  • Which industry is next? “Banking’s probably going to go that way and maybe auto... over enough time, tech eats all.” (28:41 Rory)

Notable Quote:

"We just did it to Hollywood. Thanks for playing, guys. We’ve got distribution. We’re going to take over your sexy business, too.” (27:03 Rory)

5. Tiger Global’s Shrunken Fund & Lessons from 2021

[28:41–33:16]

• Jason: Tiger’s downsizing from hyperactive 2021 pace (100+ deals) to now doing just 9 deals a year.
  • Both hosts agree it’s the “strategy of the day” to go high-conviction on a few big winners.
• Rory’s praise:
  • Gives credit to Tiger for “swallowing pride,” repositioning, and recommitting with a big GP commit (“gotta love the game”).
  • “Money is a great fruit serum. Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you do.” (33:16)

6. AI Mania: Harvey, Databricks, and 'Bubble Behaviors'

[34:00–47:10]

• Harvey’s $160M at $8B Valuation; Databricks’ $500M Seed:

  • Rory, Jason, and Harry parse whether these sticker prices are justified.
  • Growth rates: Harvey is $150M ARR, 300% YoY, 98% logo retention, 168% NDR.

• Skepticism vs. Momentum:

  • Jason: “If growth is durable and it triples from 50 to 150 in a year, you do the deal.”
  • Rory: “You can lose money on a great company if you pay the wrong price—especially if hypergrowth slows.” (44:31)

• Concern over 'paying three years ahead' just like in 2021.

  • “Three years ahead is maybe the limit of what VC can do—even in AI.” (46:25 Jason)
  • A tipping point: “In AI, so far, no one has been wrong… The person nervous at $3B is now genius at $8B. But if momentum wanes, many will be over their skis.” (47:01 Rory)

• On durability of AI apps:

  • The group discusses 'Jaspering'—apps made semi-obsolete overnight if foundational models leap ahead.

7. Foundational Models & LLMs: Are They a Commodity?

[54:55–61:52]

• Repercussions:

  • Rory: LLMs aren’t as sticky as Cloud services; “Swapping” between Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Chinese open source models is orders of magnitude easier.
  • Differing views on whether LLM providers will be profitable or be crushed by commoditization.

    “Even though there is a fair degree of switching... you’ll still evolve to an industry structure with a few key providers.” (58:36 Rory)

  • Memory in LLMs is sticky for consumers, less so for B2B where APIs can switch backends fluidly.

• Notable Discussion:

  • Many hot startups are running Chinese open source LLMs under the hood already, due to cost.

8. Airwallex Raises $330M at $8B: The "Asia Discount" and Data Concerns

[70:45–78:37]

• Rory and Jason dissect Airwallex’s valuation 'discount' relative to US peer Ramp (doing similar ARR but valued lower).
  • “Ramp has a better multiple, but Airwallex has an Asia discount—would be valued higher if not for China ties.” (71:29 Rory)
• Hot-button: Keith Rabois’s accusation that Airwallex’s data flows to China pose regulatory/data risk.
  • Rory clarifies: Not Chinese-owned; issue is where employees/data centers are—just as with US/Europe firms.
  • “If you base your backend/data in China, you take on that regulatory risk. The further the countries drift, the more problematic it gets.” (76:32 Rory)
  • Jason: Ultimately, “just make the data location unimpeachable, remove the objection, and move on. For sales, it's an objection to be handled.” (78:50 Jason)

9. Constructive Conflict: Board Role, Founder/VC Dynamics

[82:54–84:31]

• Confrontation: Should a board mandate Airwallex to move staff out of China?
  • Rory would make de-risking China presence a closing condition.
  • Jason: “That’s condescending. Great CEOs will figure it out.”
  • Rory: "Disagree—sometimes boards must push on strategic fatal error risk and saleability. That’s part of the job." (83:27 Rory)

10. Prediction Markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) Bubble Up

[84:31–88:00]

• Jason & Rory’s double-edged take: These markets bring price discovery and leverage inside info for trading; regulation is unavoidable due to insider trading risks.

  “There’s going to be a bunch of congressional hearings when someone makes a million dollars guessing Google’s #1 query 27 days straight.” (85:55 Rory)

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• "Private market valuations were found wanting every time they met public markets."
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (08:01)
• “Money is a great fruit serum. Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you do.”
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (33:16)
• "The person nervous at $3B is now a genius at $8B—until momentum fades, then everyone's over their skis."
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (47:01)
• "We just did it to Hollywood. Thanks for playing, guys..."
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (27:03)
• "In AI, no one has been wrong so far. But if it turns, everyone will be over their skis."
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (46:25)
• "If Harvey's growth is durable... you just do the deal."
  — Jason Lemkin, (41:53)
• "Great CEOs will figure it out. It's beyond condescending to tell them how to work it out."
  — Jason Lemkin, (82:54)
• "Oligopoly in Cloud was sticky—LLMs are swappable, more fluid by far."
  — Rory O’Driscoll, (55:43)
• "There's an Asia discount—ByteDance, Airwallex, it's not shared with US peers anytime soon."
  — Harry Stebbings / Rory O’Driscoll, (73:24)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:45] – SpaceX $800B Valuation & Secondary Markets
• [10:16] – Will 2026 Be the Year of IPOs?
• [15:44] – Anthropic, Databricks IPO Bets
• [19:10] – Netflix's Bid for Warner Brothers
• [28:41] – Tiger Global’s Retreat & Return to Focus
• [34:00] – Harvey, Databricks and Bubble Signs in AI Rounds
• [47:10] – Commoditization of LLMs
• [54:55] – Model "Swap-ability" & Stickiness
• [70:45] – Airwallex: Data, "Asia Discount," and Keith Rabois Rivalry
• [82:54] – Board Roles, China Risk & Founder-vs.-VC
• [84:31] – Prediction Markets/Insider Trading Warnings

Tone & Dynamic

• Candid, combative, peppered with inside jokes and bets among the guests.
• Rory is the straight-talking numbers guy: skeptical, data-driven, but appreciates power laws and leader premiums.
• Jason is blunt, irreverent, risk-taking, but also wary of abstracting away too much from execution realities.
• Harry keeps the pot stirred, mixes self-deprecation with sharp zingers, and happily calls out the elephants in the room.

For First-Time Listeners…

This episode is a masterclass in current venture capital logic: blending enthusiasm, skepticism, and raw market math as the Valley gears up for another era of mega-IPOs, platform wars, and global regulatory brinkmanship. The group’s willingness to openly debate deal risks (even among friends and LPs!) makes for a spicy and illuminating listen.

Final Thought

Despite sky-high valuations and breakneck innovation, the show’s biggest caution is timeless:

“It is possible to lose money on a great company—especially when all you're running is valuation risk.” (44:31 Rory O’Driscoll)

End of Summary.