The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) – “Big Fat Quiz of the Year: Founder, Fund and Breakout Company of 2025 | Predictions for 2026”

Podcast Details

• Host: Harry Stebbings
• Guests: Jason (likely Jason Lemkin), Rory O’Driscoll, Guest Host(s)
• Date: December 22, 2025
• Episode Theme: A year-in-review and forward-looking “quiz” episode, awarding Founder, Fund, and Breakout Company of the Year for 2025, and making bold predictions for 2026 in the world of venture capital and startups, with candid, occasionally irreverent VC banter.

Episode Overview

The 20VC “Big Fat Quiz of the Year” episode brings together Harry Stebbings, Jason, Rory, and a guest host for a lively, irreverent discussion reflecting on 2025’s top founders, funds, breakout companies, and biggest surprises—plus fearless predictions for 2026. The group debates which IPOs are on the horizon, the tech stocks to buy or short, the real impact of AI on employment, and the shifting dynamics of venture investing, all while keeping score with humor and a distinctively candid tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Founder of the Year (05:12–11:22)

• Jason’s Pick: Dario Amodei (Anthropic)
  • "Without [Claude 3.5/3.7], we have no vibe coding, no Lovable, no vacations to Greece..." (05:19)
  • Recognized not only for product innovation, but for steady business leadership, driving profitability, growth, and valuation convergence with OpenAI.
• Harry’s Agreement: Dario is also his pick, emphasizing discipline and execution over doomsday AI narratives:
  • “CEO as business executive making a difference...growth rate faster than OpenAI, valuation convergence...he's played a great hand.” (06:50–08:30)
• Guest Host Additions:
  • Gwynne Shotwell (SpaceX): For navigating geopolitics and leading SpaceX to what could be the biggest IPO ever. (08:31)
  • Alex Wang (Scale AI): Praised for outsized returns—“a 20x in terms of returns”—though not as much global impact yet. (09:00–10:08)
  • Vlad Tenev (Robinhood): Applauded for product diversification and transforming Robinhood into a trusted multi-product fintech. (10:25)
    • “Nine products do over 100 million in revenue...Vlad for SaaS.” (11:01)

2. Fund of the Year (11:22–18:33)

• Harry’s Pick: Index Ventures
  • “Competent execution across multiple different exits...exits are the coin of the realm.” (11:32)
• Jason’s Picks:
  • Neo: For "aesthetic" success, early backing of hits like Cursor and Kalshee, and strong hustle. (12:30)
  • Crandom (Creandum): For prowess in Sweden (e.g., Klarna, Trade Republic) and European dominance. (14:24)
• Honorable Mentions:
  • Hummingbird: $100M fund returning $800M; standout seed performance. (15:07–15:55)
  • Benchmark: Sticking to Series A/Seed, delivering continued stellar returns. (16:40–17:00)
  • Thrive and Founders Fund: Growth fund excellence—e.g., $3B deployed in 12 months to Stripe, SpaceX, Anduril. (18:33)
  • Google (as Corporate Investor): Major stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, Waymo. (19:12)

3. Standout Individual Investors (20:10–21:44)

• Elad Gil: Raised a $3B+ solo fund, with “taste and style” and the ability to break through noise as a preferred investor. (20:18)
• Lee Marie (Kleiner Perkins): Two huge liquidity events (Windsurf and Chronosphere) returning billions. (21:28)

4. Breakout Company of the Year (22:14–28:16)

• Harry: OpenEvidence (AI medical search for doctors) – from zero to 500k users, strong revenue logic. (22:21)
  • “Doctors...are the biggest single demographic of people who want to look up a recent academic paper...Now you’ve put up your hand and said, my patient is one of them.”
• Jason: Databricks – for riding the AI wave, accelerating growth, and transforming mainstream enterprise software. (24:17)
• Guest Host: 11 Labs – voice AI reaching $400M ARR, massive value and rapid utility expansion. (25:42)
• Others Mentioned:
  • Lovable, Replit – rising prosumer/vibe code apps, expected to have outsized future impact.
  • Notion – surprise success with high-value AI upgrades and increased pricing. (44:09–44:48)

5. Biggest Surprises of 2025 (28:16–34:19)

• Harry: The scale of the “talent wars,” with $100M+ hiring deals and companies prioritizing talent over products.
  • “Meta’s willing to just give a dude $100 million bucks to show up...crazy.” (28:20)
• Jason: No limits to startup exit values (trillion-dollar IPOs possible); agentic AI just getting started. (29:42)
• Guest Host: Windsurf/Cognition acquisition saga, and Nvidia investing $100B in OpenAI starting the “circular deals.” (32:21)

6. Predictions for 2026

- Best Performing Tech Stocks (34:53–48:34)

• Harry: Stock-picking is futile – historical best performers are niche/surprise plays (e.g., Planet Labs, Opendoor).
• Jason: The "top six" momentum B2B names—Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, Crowdstrike, Snowflake—will mostly keep leading; bets Salesforce will outperform as AI agent attach rates surge.
  • “I think Salesforce might be the biggest beneficiary next year...When their rep calls...‘Now we can get rid of 200 people...with AI and it works’, you’re going to see attach rates like we’ve seen in coding.” (39:03)
• AI Revenue “Realness”: Discussion of whether AI is additive (worth paying for), or just bundled with core products and hyped up—Adobe flagged as a worst offender for claiming “AI-influenced” revenue without real bookings growth. (46:06)

- Mega-cap Buy/Short for 2026 (50:51–54:02)

• Harry: Buy Google, short Nvidia; danger for Nvidia in CapEx cycle stalling, while Google has defensive upside.
  • “If capex tide goes out, Nvidia is going to be very heftily priced and Google still has its business and can gradually roll out AI.” (51:00)
• Jason: Hold Nvidia, avoid Amazon – competitors can’t catch up in 2026, Nvidia’s dominance not yet threatened. (52:42)
• Risks for Nvidia: Supply chain/CapEx risk only if big customers (like OpenAI) can’t keep spending $100B+; but as long as the “compute = revenue” logic prevails, Nvidia wins. (54:59–55:47)

- Next Major IPOs (57:01–62:12)

• Consensus List for 2026:
  • SpaceX: First out, “as early as makes sense” (Summer 2026)
  • Canva: Second, AI story less central but financials strong
  • Databricks: Late 2026, driven by financial momentum
  • Anthropic: End-of-year IPO to solve capital needs
  • OpenAI: Probably 2027 due to ongoing burn
  • Stripe: Unlikely in 2026
• Discussion on the “banking problem” of trillion-dollar IPOs and market demand for enormous floats. (59:47–60:10)

- AI-Driven Unemployment (62:12–66:16)

• Jason: Will we see AI unemployment in labor stats by end of 2026?
• Harry: Politics doesn't care if it's “real”; if unemployment rises, AI will get blamed:
  • “If unemployment racks up even two or three points, regardless of reason...you’ll see a tech lash that makes what we’re dealing with now an understatement.” (64:15)
  • “They've confessed to the crime… even if it’s not true.”
• Jason: “Society will be terrified of AI if that becomes true.” (65:16)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Claude/Anthropic Impact:

  • “Without this, we have no vibe coding. Without this, we have no Lovable...None of these products, many of which existed for years, did not work until we could debate when it was. They worked with Claude 3.5 at the end of last year… but 4 changed our lives.” — Jason, [05:19]

• On Index’s Execution:

  • “Index just took that same old [venture] model, which I like because I’m a boring kind of guy, and just executed to perfection. I give them the nod for 2025.” — Harry, [11:32]

• On 11 Labs’ Real-World Value:

  • “It used to take two weeks and a couple grand to get 200 conference speaker names voiced...Amelia fired up 11 Labs and did it in 10 minutes for $30. That’s why these apps are blowing up.” — Jason, [26:16]

• On Talent Wars:

  • “Meta’s willing to just give a dude $100 million to show up...social conventions about buying companies, how employees get treated, how much a human can be paid, got thrown out the window in six months.” — Harry, [28:20]

• On AI as an Investment Megatrend:

  • “There’s no ceiling on venture, which changes all the math and calculations...A trillion dollar IPO next year, maybe two...It just changes the whole industry.” — Jason, [29:42]

• On “Circular” Tech Deals:

  • “We don’t care [about circular deals]. If it drives the stock price up, great. If it marks up my fund, great. Just the way it is now.” — Jason, [32:46]

• On AI/Agent Product Attach:

  • “You have to have something where someone’s going to go in and pay as much or more for your core product for this agent. I think people will pay $100,000 a year for a Salesforce GTM agent.” — Jason, [42:47]

• On Societal Risk of AI-Driven Unemployment:

  • “If unemployment racks up even two or three points… you’ll see a tech lash that makes what we're dealing with now an understatement.” — Harry, [64:15]

• On Owning the Robots:

  • “If the robots are going to take over society, I want to be sure that I own the robots.” — Harry, [65:49]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:12–11:22 | Founder of the Year discussion | | 11:22–18:33 | Fund of the Year and Standout Venture strategies | | 20:10–21:44 | Individual Investor of the Year | | 22:14–28:16 | Breakout Company of the Year | | 28:16–34:19 | Biggest Surprises of 2025 | | 34:53–48:34 | Best Performing Tech Stocks (2026 preview, AI attach rates) | | 50:51–54:02 | Mega-cap Buy/Short for 2026; Risks for Nvidia | | 57:01–62:12 | Next Major IPOs (SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, Anthropic, OpenAI) | | 62:12–66:16 | Will AI-driven unemployment hit the real numbers in 2026? |

Tone and Style

The episode is marked by candid debate, dry humor, and the unvarnished opinions of experienced VCs, with Harry delighting in grumpiness, Jason making bold claims (and meta-references to past episodes), and Rory playing devil’s advocate. The tone is collegial, competitive, and deeply knowledgeable, relying on inside jokes, market war stories, and the occasional expletive.

Summary for New Listeners

This “Big Fat Quiz of the Year” offers a rapid-fire, deeply informed tour of 2025’s landmark companies, investors, and trends, while looking ahead to the biggest questions for 2026. If you want to hear how top VCs view the realities of AI, fundraising, company building, and public markets—beyond the press releases and LinkedIn posts—this episode delivers. Expect sharp takes, memorable predictions, and insight into how the industry’s power players think about value, risk, and the wild future of tech and venture capital.