Sales volumes have collapsed across Canada, and Vancouver is no exception. May 2025 saw just 2,228 sales—down 18.5% from an already slow May last year, and a staggering 30.5% below the 10-year average. This marks the slowest May on record in over 20 years, highlighting just how extreme the slowdown has become. In the pre-sale market, the picture is even bleaker. Vancouver saw only 816 new condo sales in the first quarter of 2025, an 84% drop from the 5,250 sold during the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, in the Greater Toronto Area, April 2025 recorded only 310 new home sales, a shocking 72% drop from the same time last year and an astonishing 89% below the 10-year average—this is the worst April on record for new home sales in the GTA.

In the resale market, the GTA is facing a flood of new listings, with active inventory reaching 30,964 in May—a 41.5% jump year-over-year and levels not seen since the 1995 housing downturn that led to decades of price stagnation. New listings surged 14% compared to May 2024, totaling 21,819—the second-busiest May on record. However, with sales unable to keep pace, the sales-to-new-listings ratio plummeted to just 28%, firmly in buyers’ territory, where prices typically face downward pressure. Interestingly, despite the surge in inventory, prices in Toronto edged up 0.3% month-over-month to $1,012,800, though they remain 4.5% below last year’s levels. Whether this is a sign of a bottom or just a temporary pause in the broader correction remains to be seen.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting, despite core inflation still hovering above 3% on a three-month annualized basis. This decision reflects concerns about slower growth and sticky inflation, which have been exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs that threaten to prolong a period of stagflation—where growth slows but prices continue to rise. The high cost of borrowing continues to weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability, contributing to the ongoing collapse in sales.

In Vancouver, the market is grappling with both a surge in listings and persistently low sales. New listings in May reached 6,640, 4% higher than May 2024 and 9% above the 10-year average, though slightly down from April 2025’s peak. Despite this influx of supply, active inventory soared to 16,535—up 26% from a year ago and a massive 46% above the 10-year average—marking an 11-year high for the month. This has given buyers their most extensive selection since July 2014, yet sales volumes remain extremely low, highlighting a deep disconnect between supply and demand.

The sales-to-active ratio sits at a meager 14%, indicating a market leaning towards buyers’ territory. While the composite Home Price Index (HPI) dipped $7,000 (0.6%) month-over-month to $1,177,100, the median price surprisingly rose for the fourth consecutive month to $985,000, the highest reading this year—suggesting that while high-priced homes might still be selling, the overall market remains fragile. Sellers, especially those receiving offers, need to treat them seriously in this climate, as buyer hesitancy is at a peak.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com