Victor Davis Hanson (70:00)
I mean, you can. You can get like that. And how many tanks are. There's fewer than 50 that are running in Germany, and I think Germany has about 10F35. So even if they wanted to, they wouldn't. They couldn't, and they don't want to. So what's holding Vladimir Putin from absorbing all of Ukraine are the heroism of the soldiers in the field that are Ukrainian, and the average age is getting up close to 30, and they're worn out. And US munitions and intelligence and economic aid. I think we pay for the entire salaries of the Ukrainian administration. Okay, so then Donald Trump is saying, we want this concessions to be paid back. And they said, how dare you do that? They don't understand Trump. They don't understand any of this. This is all art of the deal trolling. And what he's basically saying is, Mr. Zelensky, you are not master of your own fate. Don't tell me what you are going to do and what you're not going. It's your country. I'm not saying I'm going to get into your business. I'm just saying if you want me to get into your business, and apparently you do, then I'm going to have the say. If you don't want me to get in your business, fine. You go deal with the Germans and the Poles and the British and they're going to protect you. But don't play this game where you come and fly during an election year to an ammunitions plant and start lobbying against me and then tell me that you're disinterested. I'm not going to believe that. So if you want United States aid, you from now on are going to pay for it and we'll have a concession. But the real subtext was Zelensky thought about, ah, this is horrible. And then he thought about it and obviously some people, he said, Mr. People came to him and they must have said, hey, Zelensky, you understand what he's really saying? He's not going to send US Troops over there. And if the British sent troops and the French, that wouldn't be any good. Any. But he's going to put a lot of American businesses and investment there. And so if Putin were to try to break whatever negotiation we have and try to overrun, he's going to be dealing with American investment money, corporations, employees, infrastructure. And that will bring the United States into conflict with Putin. In other words, we're trying to sort of kind of have an investment in Ukraine to get back the money, but also to tell Putin, this is a nation that's going to open up investment to Western concerns, so don't go in again. So then in this rigmarole, Neill said that it was like the Gulf War. J.D. correctly, I think, and this is no criticism of Neil, that that was not a historical, good, historical account. I pointed out that this is exactly like in my response to both of them, exactly like the 1939 Winter War, November. Hitler had made a deal with the Soviet Union. The United States was isolationist. France and Britain were terrified over the loss of Poland. They knew they were going to be invaded soon, and they were invaded. And Stalin said, you know what? Germany's on our side. There's no other opposition. We're going to go take what we want from Finland, our neighbor. So they went to General Mannerheim and said, we want 10% just like Putin. Oh, no, no, you can't. Okay, we're going to invade and they invaded, and that was the worst. Like Putin they had at Kiev, they had no idea about the mettle of the Finns. They're some of the bravest, most courageous people in the world. And all of November, December, January, February, they killed, wounded or captured 400,000 soldiers. The Finns were on skis, they had sharpshooters, they were dressed in white during the snow. They understood the terrain, the weather, and the Russians were just bled white. And then finally Stalin said, grind them down. They poured in artillery, they poured in tanks, they poured in another million people. And all of a sudden, this poor little country of two and a half million was overrun. So then what did they do? They were in the same position as Mannerheim, went to Stalin and said, look, we'll give you the 10%, but if you try to take the whole country, we'll fight to the death. And Stalin said, well, that's what I. I only wanted to steal 10%. And what happened after that? Mannerheim was very careful. In World War II, he helped the Germans, but he never invaded the Soviet Union. He promised he would never join Germany. And even though the Germans begged him at the siege of Leningrad, please, you got a half a million of the best fighters in the world. You could break the siege of Leningrad if you just set foot on Soviet territory and stop the supply. And Mannerhum said, nope, I will help you any way I can, but I'm not going to invade the Soviet Union. And when they lost, Stalin went over to Finland and said, I'm going to let you go. You're not going to join the West. You're going to be, like, off. No west, no Soviet. And it kept their freedom for 85 years. So that's a good model for Ukraine. They're not going to get the Crimea back and they are not going to get the Donbass. And that has not been the policy of Mr. Obama, Mr. Trump, or Mr. Biden to get it back. Militarily, nobody believes they can. They're not going to, Joe. And another argument that Neil Ferguson made was, we're giving back. You're playing poker and you're giving away all of your leverage. You say you're not going to get back Donbass and you're not going to get Crimea, and you're not going to put. Well, don't tell Putin that, because now you're giving away the negotiation. No, no, no, no. If you're playing poker and you're bluffing and you're going like this, well, I've got a really good hand. They know you're bluffing. They know that Europe doesn't want them in NATO because they don't want to go have to rescue them. By statute, we don't want them in NATO. Russia doesn't want them in NATO. And I don't think Ukraine wants them in NATO deep down inside. And more importantly, nobody believes they have the military ability to take back Crimea and take back Donbas. And nobody wants to give them that, you know, a half, I don't know how many billions it would be a half a trillion dollars in equipment to try and another 300,000 dead to try to take those things. But, and here's what I think JD Vance and Neil Ferguson and Donald Trump would all agree on. They can cut a deal. They can go to Putin and say, okay, you get to go tell the Russians that you institutionalize the occupation, the theft of Crimea and Donbass. You can tell them that you caused dissension in NATO and you stopped Ukraine from being in NATO. And that was worth. It's a disaster for Russia. And then you got the sanctions lifted and Russia now is going to be part of the G7. It's going to go back to the normal. And then Ukraine can say, we saved our country and we pushed them back to where they were on February 24th. And that would mean that Putin would have to withdraw 30 or 40 miles. They would make a South North Korea type DMZ, and that's the negotiation. And I think that Trump can, if he pulled that off and to pull that off, he's saying some crazy things, but like everything he says, whether it's Gaza or Panama. You know, I had a talk with some people this weekend and somebody came up to me and said, I won't mention the person, but not a friend. And a couple people wrote me really nasty things. Oh, you're a Trump sellout or you're an appeaser. Shame on you. You've ruined your reputation for suggesting there should be a negotiation. We need to give. We need to give him a lot more. We can give him a trillion to all this crap. We should have American troops and all this stuff. Stupid thing. We should put him on the nuclear. No, no, no. But the fact is there can be a negotiated settlement that will stop the killing. And Ukraine will have its country. It can get its refugees back. You'll get Western investment. And it's the best armed country in NATO right now other than us. And it's got the most experienced fighters, and Putin knows that. So all we have to do is have a dmz US Western investment in Ukraine, get back its population, rebuild the country and keep that army at the same size it is now and beef up NATO and Putin will not go in again. And so that's what we're talking about. Donald Trump. Just one last thing, Jack, is that they don't understand what he says. I don't know what the word is, trolling. But. But he wasn't going to invade Panama. But he did stop that awful agreement in which China was going to have a concession and has a lot of extra legal influence on our Panama Canal that we gave and we had a treaty that no foreign power should usurp. Our premise vis a vis the Panamanians. Their foreign nation's closest relationship has to be us and they got out of that deal. He's not going to make Canada a 51st state. What he's angry about is they had an open border and all of a sudden Trudeau was spending a billion dollars and putting thousands of people to patrol the border. And more important, he's looking now like, oh, they caught me with that $50 billion surplus and this asymmetrical. He wasn't going to attack Greenland or force Denmark, but he did want a concession that China and Russia are extracting key concessions in the Arctic Circle. Greenland is a North American territory. We've had a long history with it in World War II. It's a vital piece of real estate. The Danish have agreed now to give a billion dollars in development for Greenland as colonial powers. And more importantly, the Danes now says they're going to arm up to 3 or 4% of GDP. And that's what he. That's all he wanted. That's all he wanted. So Panama, Canada, Ukraine, there's a pattern there. He tries to confuse, rattle, cause controversy, get people thinking. Same thing with the Gaza thing. And then once it all settles down, things happen and I think there's a 50, 50 chance you'll get negotiated settlement.