Victor Davis Hanson (38:23)
I was going to get to that. There was about six reasons why he did something so stupid. Everything looks stupid in retrospect, but the proper historian has to not judge in retrospect with the benefit of hindsight, but ask what was the general knowledge at the time and what was the general consensus? The general consensus at the time was that they could conquer them in three to four weeks. And the answer was, why would they think something so stupid? When you look at how huge the Soviet Union was and how big its armies and how. Well, first of all, as you said, during the 1937-39 purges of the officer corps, they shot 30,000 officers. Hitler said, see, they're leaderless. But some of the problems were that some of the younger officers, like Konev and Ostovsky and Zhukov were pretty good. And when you wiped out the old guard, they got a chance. And they proved after the first disastrous year, they were pretty good. That was one reason he did it. The second reason he did it is he didn't know how to take Britain, as I said, and he thought he needed the resources of Russia and that catastrophic defeat of the Soviet Union to force Great Britain all alone, to capitulate or to make a deal. And he thought that the United States might come into the war, but he needed to get Russia out of the war. He felt if he got Russia out of the war, the United States would not come in. At least in the European theater. There was a third catalyst for it. He looked at the arithmetic or the calculus of World War I, and he said to himself, the war started in July, August of 1914, and we fought from 1914 to November 1918, and we never really got more than 80 miles west. In other words, the indomitable French army and the British army held even when this newly created Soviet Union collapsed after the Treaty of. I mean, during the revolutionary fervor, the czar collapsed and the Communists took over and they were incompetent. Even when he cut a piece in February 1918 and he put 500,000 free troops from the Eastern Front, they still couldn't win. And that was because of the arrival of a million Americans. So he said, well, on the east, we fought for three years and defeated the Russians. We defeated the Russians, but on the west, we never defeated the British and the French, but this time we defeated the French and the British. You know, May 10th to June 27th, we defeated them in six weeks. And therefore, if we lose, the use the calculus of World War I, two and a half years versus never four years. So if we defeated these guys in six weeks, we can defeat the Russians again in five weeks. They're the easier. And people said to him, yes, but they're communists and they're much more ruthless than the czar, and they have stolen a lot of technology from the United States and from us, and they're rearming. The other thing that made him want to go in. Molotov had visited Germany and he looked over the arrangements of the Ribbentrop. Molotov, Ribbentrop. And they said to him, we just cut off 10% of Finland. And Germany was really mad about. They were pro Finnish and they were also pro Lithuanian, pro Estonian and pro Latvian. And they said. Molotov said, we're going to take the Baltic states. And then they said to them, and there's parts of Bessarabia and parts of Romania and parts areas of Eastern Europe that are disputed, and we're going to take them and we're never going to get. We carved up Poland and we're going to take Roman Catholic Western Poland, and it's going to be called Ukraine, which it is today. And they kept demanding things. And Hitler, you know, they were being bombed at the time. And so Molotov said, well, if you're so successful, why are we in a bunker? And not that the British were very effective. So they got down to nitty gritty. And after they left, Hitler said, I cannot stand those people. They're not trustworthy. They made demands on me. How dare they? I did all the heavy lifting in Poland. They haven't done one thing. They're parasitical. And then there was a fourth thing. They looked at their relative military capabilities. And Hitler said to his generals, I invaded Poland. I gobbled up two thirds of it, 25 days. They came in late, they had trouble taking one third. I gobbled up the Scandinavia, I gobbled up all of Western Europe within a year. And what did they do? They invaded Finland, little tiny Finland In November of 1939 and November, December, January, February, March, they couldn't even take Finland. And Finns didn't get any armament from anybody. And we kept out of it. And they killed a half a million Russians. They are incompetent. So they purged their officer corps. They are incompetent and they're arrogant and they're making these demands on me. And I'm looking at World War I and they didn't do very well. And we did very well in World War I, even though we lost, but we're doing, we're winning now. So that's the decision to double cross Stalin on June 22nd. No one can understand is how they were able to assemble three and a half million men right on the border. And Stalin shot people. Anybody who said they were going to invade, he had ordered them shot. Even the day they invaded, he shot commanding officers. Then we get to. So at that point, when he invaded, it was no longer the Great War of World War I. People began to call whatever this was the Second World War in the Anglosphere and in the United States, people were calling it World War II. So the last tessera for this mosaic was what was the United States going to do? So we were panicking. In January, we moved the Seventh Fleet from the safety of San Diego and put it in an exposed position at Pearl harbor. We brought back MacArthur from retirement and put him in charge of the Philippines. And he had a huge army. He had over 100,000 Filipinos, he had 20,000Americans. He had about 15 submarines. He had a cruiser or two. He had a huge Filipino force. And he was going to hold the Philippines. We thought he also had, I think it was 20 something B7 brand new B17s. He had 40 brand new P40s, which weren't that bad of a plane. So he was out there, and so we were getting prepared. And so then the Japanese looked at everything and they were angry that we had started lend lease to the Russians, which were their enemy. They wanted Western Russia. They were kind of bogged down in China and they were mad at the United States that cut oil imports, cut their oil and steel imports. And then the other incentive was, as I said, they looked at all these rich territories that were orphaned. The Dutch East Indies, the French, Southeast Asia, and especially they saw beleaguered British, the great harbor at Singapore, and Malaysian rubber. And they looked at the United States and they thought, they're out. They put their neck way out in the middle of nowhere, all the way to Pearl harbor and they don't have as many carriers as we do. And then Yamamoto said, everybody thinks Yamamoto was this poet. No, he wasn't. He was a warmongering, militaristic, cutthroat guy. He'd studied in the United States. He was kind of utopian, cosmopolitan. But he said to the Tojo government, if you don't let me attack at Pearl Harbor, I'm gonna resign. So he caused the war. And then when he did, he said, I can only raise hell for six months and they will cede if we punish them enough. The Americans do not want a war, so we'll just tell them we'll call it quits. They had no idea. They should have studied Antietam or Gettysburg or Shiloh and seen the Americans don't give up. At least that generation didn't. And so then the Japanese looked at the geostrategic and they said, there's only three carriers in the Pacific. We have 10. We have a bigger fleet, we have better pilots, we have better planes. And the Germans are at the subway station in Moscow on December 1st and they're going to take Moscow within days and Russia's going to collapse and we got to get in this war so we can get some booty. And Germany was telling them, don't invade from the west because Japan had said to them, maybe we should land at Vladostalbek instead of attack and we'll come, go east and we'll meet the Germans in the Ural Mountains and we'll divide up all the loot and we'll carve it up and we'll have kind of half of China and half of Asia and Russia. And the Germans said, no, no, no, no, no, you're scavengers. This is our stuff. We get to keep the stuff. A year and a half later they would be begging the Japanese to invade from the. So anyway, at that point they decided to go bomb us at Pearl Harbor. They were right about that. The fleet was exposed. They were right about it was too far eastward without reliable logistics. But they had no idea about what America would react the way they would react. And they had no idea of the ability of Americans to build a fleet within two years that was larger than all the fleets combined in the world or to fight a two front war. Japan kept saying, they can't fight a two front war. We have. And Americans said, they can't fight, they're fighting in China and now they're going to be fighting the British and the Americans in the Pacific. But they thought that they had Pacified China, they hadn't. And so the war, 1941, ended as World War II, with the entrance of Japan, Britain, the United States. For those reasons, 1942, just to give a little glimpse, the whole question would be, can the Axis Powers very quickly end the war before the economies of the United States and the British Empire fully mobilize and the Soviet Union rearm? And for a brief moment, it looked like that was going to happen. In summer of 1942, the Germans had rebounded and they were at Stalingrad. They were right near the Caspian Sea. They were just about ready to take Grozny and get the oil fields. They were not that far from Moscow. They thought they were going to come up from behind Moscow. It looked like St. Petersburg, Leningrad was going to fall. When you look at Europe, Rommel had just taken Tobruk and he was starting to mobilize. And it looked like he could invade Egypt. He was only 90 miles from El Alamein, and he could go in and take the Suez Canal and meet up with army groups south maybe. And it looked like the Japanese, for after Pearl harbor, they had run wild, and the Americans and the Dutch and the Australians had lost every battle. And then they were coming up. But right around May, June, July, their luck ran out. So at the Battle of Coral Sea and Midway, the Battle of Stalingrad, and the American landing, the Battle of El Alamein in late in fall. El Alamein, Midway, Coral Sea, Stalingrad changed the whole picture. And then it was curtains for Japan, Italy and Germany.