Sammy Wink (5:20)
He's the best NATO general secretary they've had in a long, long time. And he was prime minister of the Netherlands for a long time. He was the one that the left got outraged about when he said daddy at the NATO summit. Donald Trump is trying to Thread the needle. Everybody should remember that. He's got on the one hand the MAGA base that says we are neo isolationists, were Jacksonians, but we do not want to get involved in Ukraine, we didn't want to get involved Iran. This is the base of Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon. On the other hand, there is the traditional Republican base that redefines deterrence in a different way. And that's. You have to from time to time to intervene or to be active to ensure that our enemies and our rivals don't take advantage of our appearing passive. So what, Donald Trump is trying to thread the needle. In the case of Ukraine, he came into office saying he could solve it in one day. You can't solve it. Nobody could solve the Ukraine Russian war in one day. But he, as we had that famous intervention with JD Vance and Donald Trump that set Zelensky straight. You're a beggar, basically. You're here asking for us, so don't tell us what we have to do. That was salut. That relationship has been restored. Donald Trump, in a weird, ironic way, has set the stage where he. I think he'll be much more successful as a mediator in Ukraine for a couple of reasons. He has bent over backwards to be conciliary, to conciliatory with Vladimir Putin. No one can say he didn't exhaust all avenues. There was a famous anecdote circulating on the last 72 hours that he said, I just had a good call with Vladimir to Melania, our first lady, and she said, every time you have a call, he bombs some civilian center. And Donald Trump said, you know, you're right, maybe he's playing me. I don't know what I think Trump is trying to warn Putin that he's going to get tough. And indeed, he said when Mr. Root came to Washington that he was doing something that no other president had done. And that's a secondary boycott. Secondary boycotts here in the United States are illegal in most cases under labor and trade acts. In other words, secondary boycott says you don't boycott Russian goods. You boycott anybody who buys and trades with Russia. That could be catastrophic for Russia. It could also disrupt world trade. What he's saying is, if you are China and you're buying Russian oil, if you're India and you're buying Russian natural gas, indeed European countries are doing it, then we're not going to trade with you. But he gave 50 days. It was kind of ironic because the Europeans said, why did you give 50 days? Why not do it now? Well, if he did it. Now, some of you, Germany in particular might be secondary, boycotted because you have been still trading in various, you know, silent ways with Vladimir Putin. The other thing he did was he tried to square the circle and said, we're going to give a lot of aid patriots, missile defense to Ukraine, but this time you guys are going to pitch in and help pay for it. We're not going to be the only ones that deplete our munitions and then not get paid. I don't think that went over very well with the left, but it was consistent with the MAGA agenda. So basically, where are we with Ukraine and Russia? We're just a $64,000 question. Vladimir Putin, we don't know exactly, but he's lost, dead, wounded, missing, somewhere between one and one and a half million Russians. And he has to tell the Russian oligarchs, the Russian military, he's got to tell them that that was worth it. The greatest loss of Russian soldiers since World War II. It was worth it because, and here's what he has so far, he can say, I got them out of NATO, they're not going. The idea they weren't in NATO, but they're never going to be in NATO. I had to do that. Number two, he's saying, I know we had the Donbas, I know we had Crimea, but now the west has institutionalized that they belong back with Russia. And now he's depending on this huge 600 mile front. He's somewhere between 40 and 80 miles beyond the demarcation point of the war of 2022. So the question is how much territory that he occupies in addition to what he had at the beginning of the war. Can he go back and tell the Russians, we're done, peace? And they're going to say, well, it was serious losses, Vladimir, but at least you got the following. And apparently getting an assurance that they won't gain entrance into NATO and they will not have to worry about giving back the Donbass was not enough. We don't know what that magical line is of advancement westward that Putin thinks will satisfy his. You know, he's a dictator and you know how dictators function. They, they're here one day and they're gone because they have no political legitimacy. So we don't know what he has to have. But apparently he thinks it's more than he has. Now. The other thing that is the second factor is it doesn't matter what he thinks he has to have if he feels he's going to lose what he has. And by That, I mean, if Vladimir Putin had not invaded Ukraine, three things would have happened. NATO would have never had 30 members meeting the 2% GDP. It looks like all but Spain will do that very quickly. Maybe Spain and Canada won't for a while. Two, NATO would have never promised to shoot for 5% GDP. Number three, NATO would have never had Finland with the most effective artillery in NATO, and the Swedes frontline states right on the border with Russia, who have a very sophisticated aircraft industry. The Gripen Saab airplane is very good. So they got two valuable NATO members into the alliance, and they got a 4 to $500 billion increase in weaponry and munitions and military readiness, and they're going to have double that if they go to 5%. And then for Vladimir Putin's insistence to keep going has changed Donald Trump's attitude. Now he can say legitimately to the MAGA people, I exhausted every single avenue. And if we pull out like you want me to, this is going to be Afghanistan, August 2021, and it will destroy the Republican Party because we will be tagged not with losing an Islamic country, a backward Islamic country like Afghanistan. To be frank, we had no other policy interest in it other than humanitarianism and to prevent Al Qaeda from coming back and partnering with the Taliban. But Ukraine is a little different. It's on the doorstep of Europe, and it's an adversary, a direct adversary of Vladimir Putin's Russia. So he can't let Ukraine be completely swallowed or even largely swallowed. And so that was a big change. And he understands that now. And he's now said that, as I said earlier, he's willing to give Ukraine more munitions, he's willing to have a secondary boycott of Putin, and we are getting in very, very dangerous territory. I outlined this in the End of Everything, my recent book. It comes out in paperback this September. And in the epilogue, I said, these are the threats that are existential in the world. Pakistan, India, Turkey, threatening Israel or Greece, but also Putin, the Russian media, and the Russian military threatening to use tactical nuclear, nuclear weapons, of which our military and political and diplomatic corps have said, that's nothing. They don't mean it. They do mean it. They could do it. So if. We'll see what happens. But for now, the net effect domestically is I think Donald Trump has neutralized the MAGA base because he's tried to negotiate with Putin. He did everything he could. And I think they understand if he pulls out, it's going to be disaster, not just for Republicans, but for MAGA too, politically. And then I think he can legitimately say to NATO, I didn't disrupt NATO, I saved NATO and I'm now partnering with him. That's why the Europeans are relieved, because for all their talk about maintaining the 2% promise and going up to 5, they're not capable. They are not capable. In theory, they should. They have a huge GDP that's 15 times larger than Russia. They have altogether 500 million people in the EU versus 145 in Russia. But they're socialists and their fertility rate is crashing and they're not up to it without the assurance the United States is going to back them up. But for now, we're in a new phase where Donald Trump is getting tough with Vladimir Putin. And if you think it's not going to work, I would remind you again that there were in the last four different presidencies, Bush, Obama, Biden. There was only one four year period in which Vladimir Putin did not leave his border. He did not go into Osatia and Georgia as he did under George Bush. He did not go in the Donbass and Crimea as he did on Barack Obama. He did not try to decapitate Kiev like he did during the Biden administration. And there was a reason for that. Final thought. Medev Ed, who's sort of the bad cop in Russia, he was that Russian president for a while and then he was considered a moderate and now he's a lunatic. To regain his fides as a hawk, he said when he was asked what Trump said, he said, Trump is going to have a secondary boycott. He's giving us only 50 days to shape up. He's going to, he goes, we don't care. Russia doesn't care. We'll see how Russia doesn't care. Secondary boycott. The other thing is finally, I keep saying that, but finally this economic program is very ambitious and the trade, that, the trade war, the tariffs, interest, all these things are in flux and we don't know what the consequences will be of a secondary boycott. And we don't know what Vladimir Putin thinks the consequences will be. It may be he thinks I have enough damage anyway, I don't care. And if they have a secondary boycott of India, of China, of Middle east countries that sell, you know, that deal with me in oil, et cetera, or buy oil, whatever, this will hurt the United States if they start boycotting third parties. So we'll see. It's a mess that Donald Trump inherited Joe Biden.