The Walker Webcast: Ivy Zelman, EVP and Co-Founder of Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop Company
Host: Willy Walker
Guest: Ivy Zelman
Date: January 22, 2026
Episode Overview
In this lively and data-driven conversation, Willy Walker sits down with Ivy Zelman to dissect the current state and future of the U.S. housing market. They explore the enduring challenges around affordability, housing supply, recent shifts in government policy—especially regarding single-family rentals (SFR)—and the outlook for new construction, rent trends, and capital markets. The discussion is rich with insights for anyone in real estate, finance, development, or policy, and includes Ivy’s candid takes on regional trends, M&A, technology, inflation, and policy dynamics. The tone is collaborative, honest, and insightful, combining hard data with practical wisdom.
Key Topics and Insights
1. Presidential Policy Announcements and Market Impact
[01:55 - 03:43]
- President’s speech at Davos focused on maintaining home prices, not driving them down with forced new supply.
- No major new initiatives on promoting new construction or affordability announced, despite market expectations.
- Institutional investment is being deliberately pulled back from the single-family rental (SFR) space.
"We thought there was going to be this big program announced to really drive more new construction … and support, you know, for those that have been in the have not camp ... And that obviously did not get announced."
— Ivy Zelman, [02:24]
2. Mortgage Rates, Yield Curve, and Affordability
[03:43 - 09:34]
- Short downturn in mortgage rates to sub-6% was brief; rates have edged back up.
- Policy focus is on mechanisms (e.g., mortgage-backed security purchases) to press rates lower for affordability, but structural challenges remain.
- Steepening yield curve primarily benefits developers with short-term debt; 30-year fixed-rate loans remain dominant for homebuyers.
- Potential policy shifts (like yield curve control or changes in debt issuance) are speculative and fraught with risks.
"People want 30 year fixed mortgages. That would really create a lot more confidence. But I don’t expect the ARMs to be a significant portion of purchase money mortgages.”
— Ivy Zelman, [06:16]
3. Institutional Capital in SFR/BFR and Policy Uncertainty
[09:34 - 13:33]
- Administration’s efforts to ban institutional SFR involvement poll well and will likely persist through the election.
- Uncertainty over "carve-outs" for new build-for-rent (BFR) developments: pure BFRs may be safe, but mixed-use communities’ status is unclear.
- Immediate market impact: major lenders are pulling back from BFR deals out of regulatory fear.
“We had a very large institutional ... lender who had a $70M construction loan for ... horizontal multifamily ... and it was a $70M term sheet and it was basically torn up last week because ... being anywhere close to BFR or SFR.”
— Willy Walker, [11:49]
- Despite anxiety, some players like Invitation Homes are pursuing BFR acquisitions, showing that nuances in policy could allow for selective growth.
4. Multifamily and SFR Market Dynamics: ‘Survive to 25’ Becomes ‘Hang on to 27’
[13:33 - 17:33]
- The overhang of supply, especially in Sun Belt markets, is greater and more persistent than expected.
- National rent growth is flat to slightly negative for 2025, with notable pockets of severe weakness (SFR down -1.1% in recent survey—the worst on record).
“It was the worst numbers in our survey history with respect to negative rent growth ... blended ... was one of the lowest numbers.”
— Ivy Zelman, [15:09]
- Oversupply is exerting downward pressure on rents, especially where SFR, multifamily, and single family 'for sale' are all peaking together.
5. Affordability Crisis, Not a Housing Shortage
[17:33 - 18:27]
- The core problem is price, not the amount of available housing.
- High percentages of young adults at home or ‘doubled up’ suggest potential latent demand—but only if pricing is accessible.
“It’s a price point issue, not a volume issue.”
— Ivy Zelman, [17:41]
6. Entry-Level Homebuilding and Builder Incentives
[18:27 - 21:28]
- Lower price point homes face weak demand absent heavy incentives (mortgage rate buydowns); move-up and higher-end homes are selling without similar strain.
- Builders face a ‘circular challenge’: spec-building is required to spur sales at affordable price points, but only aggressive incentives close the deal.
“They have to keep specking homes ... the only way they get the demand ... is by giving mortgage rate buy downs.”
— Ivy Zelman, [19:24]
7. Land Costs, Impact Fees, and Regulatory Frictions
[22:09 - 27:07]
- Impact fees and regulatory/entitlement barriers put acute cost pressure on new homes, varying dramatically by region (e.g., 15% of price in SF vs 5% in Houston).
- Land prices (not labor or materials) are currently the biggest impediment for affordability. Land values have only recently plateaued after constant inflation.
“The lot prices ... have remained elevated ... a third would be lot price, a third ... materials, a third ... labor.”
— Ivy Zelman, [25:07]
8. Labor and Immigration: No Crisis—Yet
[27:07 - 28:16]
- Little sign of labor shortages in homebuilding today, but risks grow if demand surges suddenly.
- Immigration and deportation policies have had minor effects on housing construction labor so far.
9. K-Shaped Consumer Economy and Housing Demand
[33:33 - 35:31]
- Strong market and asset inflation benefit the "haves," while "have-nots" are held back by high student loans, auto, and credit card delinquencies—widening the divide.
- Commission cap proposals (e.g., credit card rates) could have consumer-friendly impacts but skepticism remains about market self-correction.
“The have versus have nots ... the divide is just getting worse.”
— Ivy Zelman, [33:33]
10. Fannie & Freddie: Conservatorship, Liquidity, and Policy
[36:19 - 38:12]
- Unlikely that Fannie and Freddie will exit conservatorship soon without disrupting access to affordable capital.
- The status quo continues to underpin both the single family and multifamily markets without major risk.
“I get it works ... it’s working and the system is providing liquidity ... to multifamily and single family.”
— Ivy Zelman, [37:48]
11. Regional Investment Strategies and Government Risk
[38:12 - 41:37]
- Midwest and affordable Southeast markets offer the best opportunities for risk-on investment, due to lower development costs and pent-up demand.
- West Coast markets (California, PNW) tempting for their lack of new supply, but carry heightened political/regulatory risk.
- Local government cooperation with developers is rare and essential for expanding manufacture and affordable housing.
12. Inflation, Rent Data, and the Fed
[47:39 - 48:31]
- Real-time rent data from SFR and multifamily suggests CPI shelter numbers will fall in mid-2026, potentially enabling more accommodative Fed policy.
"In aggregate, those surveys are really a precursor of what CPI will do anywhere from four to six months later ... we would see by April ... inflation would be about 2%."
— Ivy Zelman, [47:39]
13. M&A and Market Consolidation
[48:31 - 53:46]
- M&A will remain strong, especially among single family builders and potential further consolidation in building products and home furnishings.
- The public builder share has moved from low single digits to 50%+ in recent decades, and is likely to continue increasing.
- Middle-market multifamily operators face mounting challenges against larger, better-capitalized firms.
14. Technology and AI: Incremental Gains, Not Game-Changers—Yet
[54:24 - 56:57]
- No revolutionary impact from technology or modular yet—AI is enhancing operational efficiency but hasn't fundamentally changed the game.
- AI tools in data gathering and analysis are reducing manual labor at Zelman but are not yet transforming the business model.
“We are utilizing Pro ChatGPT and it allows for us to expedite and accelerate our processes ... If we can automate that through AI, that can save significant manpower.”
— Ivy Zelman, [56:05]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “It’s a price point issue, not a volume issue.” – Ivy Zelman [17:41]
- “It was the worst numbers in our survey history with respect to negative rent growth ... we've never seen a negative number.” – Ivy Zelman [15:09]
- “If everything’s working ... the system is providing liquidity ... I’m a proponent that the government does have a pretty big hand in housing, as in it’s a necessity.” – Ivy Zelman [37:48]
- “The have versus have nots ... the divide is just getting worse.” – Ivy Zelman [33:33]
- “All roads lead to Ivy.” – Willy Walker [57:04]
Key Timestamps
- 01:55 Presidential speech at Davos, policy overview
- 06:16 Effects of adjustable rate mortgages and borrower preference
- 09:03 Yield curve shifts: who benefits in the housing sector
- 11:49 Immediate market impact of SFR/BFR policy shifts
- 15:09 Multifamily & SFR rental data; ongoing oversupply
- 17:41 Housing affordability vs. supply
- 19:24 Builder incentives and spec-building challenges
- 25:07 Land and impact fees as affordability obstacles
- 33:33 K-shaped housing demand and consumer health
- 37:48 Fannie/Freddie and government’s role in housing finance
- 38:12 Regional investment strategies and risks
- 47:39 Rent data as an inflation predictor and Fed policy
- 54:59 Technology and AI: impacts on housing/research
Closing Thoughts
Willy and Ivy close by emphasizing the need for systemic solutions to affordability and the crucial distinction between supply versus accessible supply. They acknowledge the persistent role of public policy and regulation, the widening wealth and opportunity gap, and the slow but real advances in harnessing technology to improve industry insight and efficiency. Ivy's optimism is tempered by realism: near-term solutions are more likely incremental than transformative.
“I was hoping we would have a bigger announcement today, something ... but you still filled it with a lot of really important and insightful data.”
— Willy Walker, [57:04]
For those navigating US housing, this episode provides a clear-eyed, well-documented assessment of the market’s most pressing issues, and what may lie ahead.