The Walker Webcast: Real-Time Insights with Industry Titans

Guests:

• Michelle Herrick (Head of Commercial Real Estate, JPMorganChase)
• James Millon (President & Co-Head of Capital Markets U.S. & Canada, CBRE Capital Markets)
• Justin Wheeler (Chief Executive Officer, Berkadia)
  Host: Willy Walker (CEO, Walker & Dunlop)
  Date: February 19, 2026

Overview

In this powerhouse episode of The Walker Webcast, host Willy Walker brings together three of the commercial real estate industry’s most influential leaders for an unscripted, insightful discussion on capital markets, the lending landscape, leadership, and the game-changing rise of AI and data centers. Against the backdrop of 2026’s economic environment, the episode explores challenges, opportunities, and big shifts shaping CRE, all with remarkable candor and collegial competition.

Market Mood Swings & Capital Flows

[00:44–04:52]

• Uptick in Capital, Lack of Seller Appetite:
  Justin Wheeler describes contrasting moods at industry conferences: capital “euphoria” among lenders, but caution among multifamily owners unwilling to sell at current prices.
  • "Everyone's a buyer, everyone wants to buy more, but no one wants to sell at today's prices… There’s a real mismatch." — Justin Wheeler, [03:47]
• Lenders Filling Gaps:
  Aggressive debt capital is stepping in, sometimes taking on higher LTVs, and “extend and pretend” attitudes persist among lenders.
• Stalled Transaction Flow:
  Institutional hesitation prevails; as Wheeler notes, "No one wants to be the first guy to walk into the Harvard Club and say 'I sold my stuff at the six cap.'" [04:37]

Sales Activity Outlook & Industry Consolidation

[04:52–09:19]

• Forcing LP Exits:
  James Millon notes $300B in NAV is “trapped” in closed-end funds past maturity—eventually forcing sales as LPs demand capital back.
  • "You can't do continuation vehicles again and again and again. LPs want their capital back. The new acronym is DPI, not NAV." — James Millon, [05:57]
• Bid-Ask Spread Tightening:
  Investment activity is picking up, with financing as a catalyst for more deals—Millon sees values starting to reset and bid-ask spreads closing slightly.
• Consolidation Ahead?:
  Wheeler expects middle-market funds with weak track records to be absorbed or disappear:
  • "Track record matters... Some of those lower performing funds... people are going to be looking at track records and saying it matters." — Justin Wheeler, [08:38]

Construction Lending & CRE Supply

[09:19–12:19]

• Selective Construction Lending:
  Michelle Herrick at JPMorganChase emphasizes consistency and risk discipline. She reports a careful appetite for new projects and notes that in multifamily, supply is generally overshot, except in constrained markets like NYC and parts of California.
  • "We pride ourselves on consistency of capital... It starts with client selection and risk discipline." — Michelle Herrick, [11:45]
• Liquidity & Recycling Capital:
  Patient local capital has found opportunities as transaction volume increased, but 2026 is “nowhere near” 2021 levels.

Talent Wars: Pitching Top Platforms

[12:19–17:29]

• Why Work for Us?
  • Berkadia:
    Wheeler touts the benefits of being privately owned (by Berkshire Hathaway), allowing long-term thinking and a collaborative team culture.
    • “It’s really nice not to be a public company... Berkshire lets us take a long term view that’s kind of rare in the business.” — Justin Wheeler, [13:06]
  • CBRE:
    Millon frames size, scale, and multi-disciplinary teams delivering “strategic advisory” as the CBRE difference.
    • “We want to be doing strategic advisory for our clients... Not just transacting, not just brokerage.” — James Millon, [14:55]
  • JPMorganChase:
    Herrick leverages the depth and breadth of JPMorgan’s global platform—balance sheet, underwriting expertise, and knowledge from operating their own space.
    • "If you want to make a name for yourself, you need capital backing and depth of products... We’re pretty unstoppable.” — Michelle Herrick, [17:00]

Leadership: What the Greats Teach

[17:29–26:41]

• Jamie Dimon’s Influence:
  Herrick admires Dimon’s combination of authenticity and unending curiosity, noting his leadership style challenges teams to learn deeply and globally.
  • "It’s the authenticity in his leadership combined with this insatiable appetite to never stop learning.” — Michelle Herrick, [17:50]
• Bob Sulentic at CBRE:
  Millon highlights Sulentic’s clear strategy: every decision must trace to core aspirational pillars.
  • “Everything has to tie back to the strategy... set from the very beginning.” — James Millon, [19:55]
• Warren Buffett at Berkadia:
  Wheeler shares a memorable Buffett lesson: focus on building the best franchise, not chasing yield.
  • “Tell Justin his job is to build the best franchise in the industry.” — Warren Buffett (paraphrased by Wheeler, [23:33])
  • Buffett’s “calm assurance of effortless superiority” earns a knowing laugh.
• Talent Retention Philosophy:
  Walker recounts Wheeler’s perspective on talent:
  • "If we lose someone... it’s shame on me for not having created something for them to stay for." — Justin Wheeler (via Walker), [26:46]

Data Centers: Booming, Risky—What’s Different This Time?

[28:25–34:58]

• Banks, Credits, & Structuring:
  Herrick says lending on data centers is a hybrid of infrastructure and real estate, requiring the whole bank’s expertise—real estate, credit, corporate, syndications.
  • “It's the ultimate tweener... There’s a very compelling overlap with infrastructure and real estate.” — Michelle Herrick, [28:29]
• CBRE’s Edge:
  Millon touts CBRE’s operational, investment, and info advantage:
  • "We definitely have an information advantage... We started writing white papers for many of these lenders." — James Millon, [30:13]
• Are We Overbuilding?
  Herrick is confident in JPM’s current underwriting but sees the need for a functioning long-term financing market and notes syndication helps de-risk large deals.
• Dot-com vs AI Booms:
  Walker draws parallels and warns: this time it’s big players at risk, not dot-com upstarts. Herrick notes transparency has increased, which is healthy.
• Berkshire & AI:
  Wheeler says Buffett's group hasn't made significant moves in AI, comparing prior skepticism about Bitcoin to the current posture on AI.

AI & The CRE Workforce: Tools or Threats?

[35:28–47:26]

• Productivity, Not Downsizing—Yet:
  Wheeler and Millon both envision AI handling repetitive, “science” tasks, freeing people up for creativity and deeper client work.
  • "People are the art, machines are the science. We want all the science to be done by machines...” — Justin Wheeler, [38:19]
• Entry Level Disruption Coming:
  Wheeler highlights potential loss of learning-by-doing opportunities for junior staff due to automation.
  • “A lot of what [analysts] do... is repetitive... and now they can just talk to chat GPT. How that goes through the workforce... is going to be very interesting.” — Justin Wheeler, [42:27]
• Human Touch Still Needed:
  Herrick and Millon both stress the lasting value of human interaction, intuition, and understanding interconnected financials.
  • "Humans desire human connectivity... There’s a balance.” — Michelle Herrick, [44:28]
• Historical Analogy:
  Walker cites the slow, incomplete displacement of retail by e-commerce as a way to moderate concerns about AI replacing all jobs.

Multifamily, Policy, & GSEs in 2026

[47:26–53:07]

• Fannie & Freddie’s Market Role:
  Wheeler expects agencies to remain vital liquidity providers; non-GSE capital is abundant as well, but operational capacity at agencies could be a constraint.
  • “There are a lot of debt capital sources... There’s a lot of debt capital that’s available.” — Justin Wheeler, [50:05]
• Housing Policy Push:
  Millon points to a policy focus on affordability and a steady macro setup for multifamily, with secular tailwinds—even if some Sunbelt markets face short-term softness.
  • "We feel pretty good about the macro setup to multifamily and what we call the secular tailwinds…" — James Millon, [52:01]
• Liquidity & Transaction Boom Expected:
  Herrick foresees an active couple of years for CRE, with strong fundraising, transaction flow, and looming refinancing waves.

Rapid-Fire: Where Would You Invest in 2026?

[54:56–57:49]

• Asset Class "Bet the Farm" Picks:

  • Justin Wheeler: "Potato land in Idaho" (humorous nod), but otherwise—office in San Francisco, notably unloved 18 months ago.
  • James Millon: Senior bond positions in trophy NYC office buildings—risk-adjusted returns at deep discounts to today's value.
    • "If you can go and buy an HRR bond and yield 9% at effectively 60% of today's value at a 9% debt yield, that feels pretty good." — James Millon, [56:46]
  • Michelle Herrick: Equity in multifamily in supply-constrained markets, e.g., New York—with optimism for policies targeting housing supply.

• Walker’s Closing Note:

  • "Two of the three here were office in San Francisco. Not one of the four of us could get a bid... 18 months ago... these markets move, and they move quickly." — Willy Walker, [58:09]

Memorable Quotes & Leadership Lessons

• Wheeler on Buffett’s advice:
  "Tell Justin his job is not to figure out how to get excess yield on extra capital. ...his job is to build the best franchise in the industry." [23:33]
• Herrick on Jamie Dimon:
  “Authenticity... combined with this insatiable appetite to never stop learning.” [17:50]
• Walker on talent retention:
  “If we lose someone... shame on me for not having created something... for them to stay for.” [26:46]
• Wheeler on AI and work:
  “People are the art, machines are the science.” [38:19]
• Herrick on human interaction:
  “Humans desire human connectivity.” [44:28]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:44] — Capital flows & market euphoria vs. caution
• [04:52] — Outlook for sales activity, forced exits, bid/ask dynamics
• [09:19] — Construction lending trends & market insight
• [12:19] — Talent wars & platform recruiting philosophies
• [17:29] — Leadership lessons (Dimon, Sulentic, Buffett)
• [28:25] — Data center boom, risks, and lending innovation
• [35:28] — AI’s impact on CRE and the future workforce
• [47:26] — Multifamily, GSEs, and policy tailwinds
• [54:56] — Panelists’ “best bet” CRE investments for 2026

Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is collegial, insightful, and candid—balancing competitive banter with mutual respect. The overall mood is cautiously optimistic: capital is plentiful, AI offers transformational (but not existential) change, and leadership matters more than ever in times of disruption. The panel offers both a snapshot of present challenges and a playbook for navigating the future.

For those in CRE or curious about the sector, this episode is a masterclass in strategy, leadership, and market adaptation—with a healthy dose of humility about what no one can predict.