The Walker Webcast: Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital

Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Willy Walker
Guest: Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital

Episode Overview

In this episode, Willy Walker sits down with Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital, to discuss Rithm’s evolution from a Fortress spinoff into a diversified asset management powerhouse. The conversation covers Rithm's journey through high-profile acquisitions, the nuances of asset-backed finance, industry differentiation, the health of the U.S. consumer, housing market dynamics, the impact of AI and large-scale capital deployment, market risks, and strategic views for 2026. The dialogue is candid, data-driven, and full of grounded industry perspective.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Genesis and Growth of Rithm

[03:08] - [05:40]

• Willy recaps Nierenberg’s extensive leadership roles at Fortress, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers, highlighting a career defined by expansion and strategic acquisition.
• Nierenberg characterizes Rithm as a “scaled asset management business” that grew through acquiring diverse assets, culminating in $110B AUM and $8.5B of permanent capital.
• Quote: “We’re not Blackstone, we’ll never be Blackstone, but I think there’s a lot of room for us as we continue to grow our asset management business.” (Nierenberg, 04:32)
• The 2022 buyout of their Fortress management contract was pivotal for diversifying beyond residential mortgages into commercial real estate and alternative asset management.

2. Differentiation in a Diversified Platform

[06:54] - [09:30]

• Rithm's foundation in mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) post-2013 dislocation.
• Key focus on Asset Based Finance (ABF): “one of the most highly demanded products from LPs today.”
• Commercial real estate acquisitions (like Paramount) are viewed as opportunistic but distinct from core ABF.
• Simplification of business story is a future goal; potential for separable public asset management entity when scale allows.

3. B2B vs. B2C Dynamics

[09:57] - [11:56]

• The consumer mortgage business serves over 4 million customers across $850–$900B in serviced loans, under the brand nuurez.
• Commercial real estate (e.g., Paramount) remains business-to-business, dealing with top-tier tenants.
• Emphasis on generating “sustainable earnings” and transitioning market perception of Rithm from REIT to asset manager for valuation advantage.

4. Health of the U.S. Consumer

[12:50] - [16:53]

• Despite concerns about the K-shaped post-pandemic recovery, Nierenberg reports “a very, very healthy consumer” in Rithm’s mortgage portfolio, with only isolated issues in certain subprime sectors.
• Quote: “If you can control your own destiny via servicing, it’s a huge leg up…” (Nierenberg, 16:40)
• Acquisition of Marcus consumer loans from Goldman: decent performance, but highlighted the importance of brand/servicer recognition.

5. Lessons from Banking Giants – Goldman vs. Morgan Stanley

[17:53] - [21:02]

• Morgan Stanley’s “fantastic franchise” in wealth stands in contrast to Goldman’s foray and retreat from consumer lending.
• Quote: “Kudos to both of those folks for doing a great job. I think in the case of Goldman they just pivoted ... and said okay, this might not have been right.” (Nierenberg, 18:47)
• Recognition of recent moves—like the Apple Card shifting to JP Morgan—reflect the realities of scaling consumer banking.

6. Consolidation and Scale in Banking

[21:16] - [22:35]

• Recent Santander–Webster Bank deal used as an example of ongoing consolidation and the unmatched scale of U.S. banking compared to Europe.
• U.S. remains the dominant market for expansion due to sheer size and opportunity.

7. Institutional Capital in SFR/Built-to-Rent

[23:01] - [27:20]

• Rithm owns about 4,000 homes but is reducing exposure; Nierenberg sees single-family scattered-site rentals as a difficult business.
• Belief that the government will target “scattered” homes over built-to-rent communities.
• Quote: “Owning scattered homes and collecting rent is just not that easy.” (Nierenberg, 25:52)

8. Housing Market & Multifamily Outlook

[27:20] - [30:59]

• Acknowledgment of housing shortages and some government measures (Fannie/Freddie purchases) marginally lowering mortgage rates.
• Not overtly bullish on home price appreciation; sees multifamily as “in good shape” with strong demand.
• Suggests reducing transaction costs (like title insurance) could aid affordability.
• Robust underwriting standards remain crucial as ABF lending expands.

9. Jobs, AI, and the Macro Outlook

[31:21] - [33:06]

• Not especially concerned about jobs or unemployment despite AI’s advance; new industries will emerge.
• Skepticism over the hype in consumer-facing AI products (as seen in lackluster Super Bowl ads).

10. AI, Equity Markets, and “Bubble” Concerns

[33:58] - [37:58]

• Huge data center projects and AI-driven capital deployment are extraordinary in scale.
• While Nierenberg recognizes the legitimacy and staying power of AI, he’s wary: “Can you say it feels a little bit heavy? The answer is yes … it just doesn’t feel early at all.”
• Importance of “believing in the counterparty” in large-scale ABF lending.

11. Gold, Bitcoin, and Speculation

[37:58] - [41:03]

• Discusses the coexistence of risk-on equity markets and the rise of “risk-off” assets like gold and Bitcoin.
• Emphasizes rampant speculation but doesn’t claim to know if/when a bubble might burst.
• Quote: “There’s not a lot of room for error in any of this stuff.” (Nierenberg, 39:41)
• Close watch on credit and consumer indicators is critical to avoid overextension.

12. 2026 Strategy and Defensive Posture

[43:07] - [45:23]

• Rithm’s key bets: strategic office investments, preference for lending in ABF over holding assets outright.
• Quote: “I would rather be a little bit more cautious as we go through the year than probably we’ve been in a couple years past.” (Nierenberg, 45:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rithm’s asset management ambition:
  "We're not Blackstone, we'll never be Blackstone, but I think there's a lot of room for us as we continue to grow our asset management business." (03:54)

• On versatility in lending and asset aggregation:
  “Our goal overall is how do we create sustainable earnings in each one of our sectors ... and have the market think of us as an asset management business.” (10:44)

• On consumer credit performance:
  “If you can control your own destiny via servicing, it's a huge leg up then versus someone else who's just going to buy an asset in the marketplace.” (16:45)

• On housing investment challenges:
  "Owning scattered homes and collecting rent is just not that easy." (25:52)

• AI bubble perspective:
  “Can you say it feels a little bit heavy? The answer is yes. Could I be wrong? The answer is absolutely yes ... for our firm here, we're very late in that game and it just doesn't feel early at all.” (36:45–37:30)

• On managing risk:
  “Keeping our eyes on credit is something that's very, very important, not only just in the credit markets, but also in the underlying consumer.” (42:16)

• On strategic posture for 2026:
  “I would rather be a little bit more cautious as we go through the year than probably we've been in a couple years past.” (45:05)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Introduction & Rithm overview: 00:43–05:40
• Strategy, differentiation, and business model evolution: 05:40–11:56
• U.S. consumer health: 12:50–16:53
• Big bank strategic lessons: 17:53–21:02
• Institutional SFR/Build-to-rent debate: 23:01–27:20
• Housing market & multifamily perspective: 27:20–30:59
• Jobs, AI, macro outlook: 31:21–33:06
• AI ‘bubble’ & mega projects: 33:58–37:58
• Speculation: Gold, Bitcoin, market risks: 37:58–43:07
• 2026 strategy and risk posture: 43:07–45:23

Tone and Style

The conversation is forthright, nuanced, and full of both self-effacing humor and grounded analysis. Nierenberg’s “been around the block” wisdom shines through, offering both macro perspective and nitty-gritty operational insight, while Walker steers with informed, pointed questions and an obvious passion for the details of leadership and markets.

This summary tracks the episode’s natural flow and the speakers’ candor, making it valuable for anyone seeking to understand the latest thinking on asset management, current economic conditions, and the macro themes shaping 2026.