The Watch Floor with Sarah Adams

Episode: CIA “Mistakes” That Secretly Changed the World

Date: January 30, 2026
Host: Sarah Adams

Episode Overview

Sarah Adams, an ex-CIA targeter, re-examines notorious “failures” in CIA history, arguing that intelligence operations are often misunderstood and prematurely judged as failures. She discusses how the Agency’s long-term influence is subtle but crucial—delaying threats, changing adversary behavior, and providing strategic warning—even when the public or policymakers don’t recognize these outcomes as “success.” Through historical and modern cases, she demonstrates how misunderstood operations shaped world events, disrupted adversaries, and prevented catastrophe.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rethinking “Failure”: The True Standards of Intelligence

• Intelligence is judged by misleading standards; successes often look slow or invisible compared to public expectations or Hollywood depiction.

• The Three Core Rules of Intelligence:

  1. Delay Beats Denial: Slowing down adversaries is often the real win.
  2. Behavioral Change > Public Outcomes: Success is in what adversaries stop doing.
  3. Strategic Warning Matters: Informing leadership is success—even if leaders ignore warnings.

• Quote:

  "Intelligence doesn't work alongside election cycles or to mirror news cycles. And it definitely doesn't work like Hollywood portrays."
  — Sarah Adams [02:11]

1.1 Delay Beats Denial

• Preventing or delaying adversary actions (e.g., nuclear programs) buys crucial time for other tools—diplomacy, sanctions, deterrence.

• Analogy: Slowing a house fire enough to save lives, even if the house isn't saved completely.

• Quote:

  "Time is the most valuable commodity intelligence buys."
  — Sarah Adams [03:38]

1.2 Changing Behavior, Not Just Outcomes

• Often, success is unseen: If a plot is abandoned due to increased security, that's a behavioral shift caused by intelligence work.

  • e.g., The shoe bomb plot: Extra airport screening led terrorists to abandon the tactic; relaxing screening later let the threat resurface.

• Disrupting adversary trust and forcing them to adapt or limit operations signifies intelligence pressure working.

• Quote:

  "The biggest intelligence successes look so boring from the outside."
  — Sarah Adams [06:38]

1.3 The Value of Warning, Even Unheeded

• Intelligence can warn leaders (like predicting a hurricane); leadership inaction doesn’t negate the warning’s value.
• Quote:

  "Intelligence doesn't make decisions, it only informs them."
  — Sarah Adams [07:12]

2. “Failures” That Changed the World: Case Studies

2.1 Operation Gold (Berlin Tunnel, 1950s)

• CIA/MI6 dug a tunnel under Berlin to tap Soviet military communications.

• Widely dismissed as a “failure” after being compromised, but yielded huge insights into Soviet command and communication—especially how adversaries respond to pressure when they know they’re being watched.

• Quote:

  "Even when something is compromised, you learn something from that...If I know how to use it to my advantage."
  — Sarah Adams [08:55]

• Modern Parallel: Cyber warfare (e.g., tapping undersea cables, cyber intrusions). Even partial access or being detected yields valuable information.

2.2 Unpacking the “Monolithic Communist Threat”

• During the Cold War, policymakers saw China and the Soviet Union as one bloc. CIA analysts proved—contrary to popular opinion—that deep fractures existed.

• Their analysis prevented U.S. leadership from overestimating adversary unity and avoided needless escalation.

• Quote:

  "Just because two people wear the same uniform does not mean they're on the same team."
  — Sarah Adams [11:11]

• Modern Parallel: China and Russia now cooperate but compete fiercely for influence; alliances of convenience do not equal trust.

2.3 Counter-Proliferation: Delaying Nuclear Programs

• The CIA targeted the supporting infrastructure of adversary programs, delaying (e.g., Iran’s) nuclear progress by years rather than eradicating it instantly.

• Disruption creates diplomatic leverage and time for new options.

• News Clip Insert [13:13]: Major U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites summarize the chronic delays and disruptions Iran faced.

• Quote:

  "Every year they didn't cross the threshold into, like, putting a nuke on a weapon and using it, you know, is a win."
  — Sarah Adams [14:22]

2.4 Mapping Terrorist Ecosystems, Not Just Cells

• Pre-9/11, the CIA learned that attacking the support network of terrorism (routes, facilitators, safe havens) was far more effective than targeting isolated cells.

• This mapping enabled post-9/11 rapid action—drone strikes could target 20 sites from day one.

• Quote:

  "If you want to kill a weed, you don't cut off a leaf. You have to kill the entire root system."
  — Sarah Adams [15:16]

• Al Qaeda and ISIS keep trying to rebrand with new group names, but their underlying infrastructure (camps, facilitators, money routes) makes them trackable and disruptable.

2.5 Strategic Warning Post-Cuban Missile Crisis

• Agencies institutionalized strategic warning systems, shifting from “predicting” to flagging thresholds and indicators of danger.

• Modern examples: Intelligence predicted Russian invasion of Ukraine and tracks Chinese intentions toward Taiwan.

• Failure to act on warnings is often a political choice, not an intelligence one.

• Quote:

  "If you only judge intelligence by what explodes or what doesn't, you miss all the things that were never happening because they were impacted in some way."
  — Sarah Adams [19:04]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |--------------|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:11 | Sarah Adams | "Intelligence doesn't work alongside election cycles or to mirror news cycles..." | | 03:38 | Sarah Adams | "Time is the most valuable commodity intelligence buys." | | 06:38 | Sarah Adams | "The biggest intelligence successes look so boring from the outside." | | 07:12 | Sarah Adams | "Intelligence doesn't make decisions, it only informs them." | | 08:55 | Sarah Adams | "Even when something is compromised, you learn something from that..." | | 11:11 | Sarah Adams | "Just because two people wear the same uniform does not mean they're on the same team." | | 14:22 | Sarah Adams | "Every year they didn't cross the threshold into, like, putting a nuke on a weapon...is a win."| | 15:16 | Sarah Adams | "If you want to kill a weed, you don't cut off a leaf. You have to kill the entire root system."| | 19:04 | Sarah Adams | "If you only judge intelligence by what explodes or what doesn't, you miss all the things..." |

Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:00] — Introduction & Intelligence Misconceptions
• [01:50] — Three Core Rules of Intelligence Success
• [08:04] — Operation Gold & Lessons from Compromise
• [10:40] — Cold War: Redefining the Enemy Bloc
• [13:13] — News Clip: US Attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites
• [14:00] — Impact of Delaying Iran’s Nuclear Program
• [15:21] — CIA Approach to Terrorist Networks
• [16:05] — US War on Al Qaeda: Impacts and Strategies
• [18:00] — Post-Cuban Missile Crisis: Strategic Warning Systems

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Adams wraps up by reminding listeners: many intelligence “failures” become apparent as misunderstood long-term successes. Without understanding the subtle, patient work of intelligence—delaying threats, shifting adversary behaviors, and warning leaders—the public misses how many disasters were quietly averted or mitigated.

• "Let’s watch the signs, not the noise."
  — Sarah Adams [19:55]

This episode challenges listeners to reconsider what intelligence “success” and “failure” really look like, especially in today's volatile, fast-moving security landscape.