← The Watch Floor with Sarah Adams
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Welcome to the watch floor. I'm Sarah Adams. What if the most important battlefield in the U.S. iran conflict isn't in the Persian Gulf itself? It's not in the Strait of Hormuz, it's not on Carg island, it's not even at the negotiating table. The real battlefield is perception. From Tehran's perspective, this isn't a conflict over who has the most powerful military they know. It's the United States. It's defined by the cost of action. Who can outlast the political pressures of those costs. In that framework, Iran understands something quite fundamental about the United States. It's not looking at how America fights wars. That's not what they're doing any of their planning around. It's looking at how we decide to stop fighting them. From an Iranian strategic perspective, the United States is not viewed as militarily weak. Yes, they might put out some propaganda internally to act like they're winning at this war and we're making a bunch of mistakes and we have no plan. But they understand the issue with the United States is that it's politically constrained. Because the way Iran does analysis is they know very well that American wars in today's present era are rarely defined on the battlefield. They are decided in Washington during election cycles by public opinion. And of course, all of that is around political pressure. Iran looks at all the options the US has in front of them and figures out how to counter them. But when they look at how to counter them, they're not exactly focused on how do we counter them militarily. They focus on how can we do this psychological, how can we spin this to constantly make the United States look like the imperialists? You know, I just spent a week in Libya, and I watch a lot of, you know, Iranians national news on the TV there, because it was actually in English. And I found it very surprising. They spent a lot of time, even going back to like the first Gulf War, talking about how US is constantly doing imperialist interventions into the Middle East. And so they're just saying, hey, what's happening right now is just the US's normal cadence. It's the US coming at, you know, the Arab world again. And it's an interesting way to frame it, but that is how they sell it to their people. And then they, as you can imagine, aren't the ones on offense. They're in a defensive posture. Another thing that's really interesting from their messaging is they know very well that Donald Trump does not want to go to war. So what they want to do is they want to push him to the point to where either he's almost at war, he has to go to war, or he has to cut a deal. The goal here by the Iranian regime is of course a deal. But when the deal is cut, they get to claim victory. They didn't have to give up their nuclear ambitions. They still have the Iranians Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in power. And at the end of the day they get to sell it that the US was the aggressor. Right. Iran is the victim here. You guys know I spend a lot of time being focused on staying sharp, functional and just trying to keep up with the pace of everything that I do. That's one of the main reasons why I tried Blueprint's longevity mix. If you've been anywhere online in the last few years, you've probably seen Brian Johnson, the don't die guy. He's known for tracking longevity and his health data in a really extreme way. This is his formula. What I like is that it's simple. You mix one scoop with water and you're done. Its ingredients support energy, mood, sleep, focus, cognitive performance and healthy aging. Some of the ingredients are magnesium, taurine, glycine, creatine and more. I also like that they third party test everything for purity and things like heavy metals and then they produce those results. Publicly, Blueprint is science backed, Precision dosed, no BS. For a limited time only. Our listeners get 20% off plus free shipping at Blueprint. Brian, that's B r y a n johnson.com using code watch at checkout. Again, that's watch blueprint.brianjohnson.com for 20% off. After you purchase, let them know the watch floor sent you. So what Iranian planners have been doing is they've been studying a number of patterns very closely. One is how the long wars affected our country, even internally with perceptions in both Iraq and Afghanistan and even how we left Afghanistan and what the American people thought of that. Another thing is the political backlash around losing Americans, especially now that we have 13 dead unfortunately within this conflict. Another is this rapid shift in public support, right? We have anti war narratives, we have misinformation going on that Israel is pulling the strings. We have plenty of concerns just by everyday Americans over the gas prices. I was just walking by, you know, two women chatting with their dogs yesterday and of course, what, what were they talking about? Gas prices. That's what every American is talking about right now. It does have an effect. Another is kind of looking at those cleavages and those divisions between political parties in the US and even thinking through how you sow more division, these parties want to also take advantage of this situation. And they might also put up Iranian propaganda and support the regime if they can hurt the other party. Another thing they're spending a lot of time looking at is this growing resistance to overseas military commitments. Right. You know, President Trump ran on America first. His base doesn't want to be involved in these conflicts overseas, even though the majority of them do understand Iran since the mullahs took over and this regime has been in power and these terrorists kind of have led the way, has been in this now decades long war with us. Right. If we don't get rid of the regime, that war continues. So we're not going to end a war. Most likely we're going to make a deal and unfortunately continue to have to deal with this regime. I mean, that's just a fact. And another thing is even for all the Americans who want to get out of the Middle east, they forget the fact the enemy gets a vote. The enemy understands this. The Iranian regime sits down monthly with Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to talk about global plans and threats. They know what some of our other enemies are planning against us. Right. We have major gaps and black holes in this thinking. But Iran is seeing one year ahead, five years ahead, 10 years ahead. They view this so much differently than us. Remember, we view everything within kind of like two year election cycles. We have a hard time doing long term strategic thinking. Iran knows that and they're taking advantage of it. So one of the key core beliefs in Tehran's thinking is that, well, the US doesn't lose wars by being defeated. Right. You really can't defeat their military, but they lose wars when the political costs become too high to continue. Right. That distinction matters because it's how they're making their decisions. A lot of people are like, well, why won't Iran cut a deal? You know, Trump is raging on about them failing to cut a deal. But this is a part of their strategic thinking, their perspective, their planning. They have always been successful when they impose time and costs and delays on us, especially when it comes to making deals. When we just talk about something as simple as a straight of Hormuz and kind of this concept of the, the power using risk, vice control. Iran understands that they can't match the US Navy vessel to vessel in a direct fight. That is not their objective. That has never been their objective. Iran focuses more on let's control the risk perception. So within the Strait of Hormuz, Iran understands, even without firing A shot that. That the uncertainty is enough to essentially control the strike. So they can issue maritime threats. They can have drones and missiles going off. They can have this mining, right? It's a kind of a warfare capability that causes this uncertainty. And then, of course, there's this constant harassment of these shipping lanes. So the goal here with all of those objectives is not to defeat the US Navy, it's to affect how everyone else reacts to it. So, of course, for these carriers, their shipping insurance rises. Most of them, the shipping companies, the insurance companies, like, we're not even going to fund this. You can't go through this straight. Another thing is the energy markets are fluctuating. Well, we say, oh, this is causing pain to Iran. Iran is used to pain, right? They don't sit around and worry that their people are not able to get gas or not able to bring in their medicines or not able to make a good living. They don't worry about those things. They're not like us, right? They only care about preserving the regime. So if we just say, oh, these costs are going to hurt them so much, right, they'll have this internal uprising in their forces. They don't think that way at all. That is not even the same thinking. And we sometimes put all of our Western views on a place like Iran, you know, somewhere controlled by terrorists. And then we're so shocked when they don't act the way we expect them to, because they're not us. Another thing is this global risk increases, and then the political pressure builds. As you've seen, there's pressure in Iran around the Strait. But then there's also been a lot of international pressure around the US around the Strait. And it's really interesting. It becomes more psychological than a military issue. You know, when I was watching the news, when I was overseas, it's. It's funny because Iranian news calls what we're doing in the Strait of Hormuz piracy, right? And this is broadcast all across the Middle East. But do you understand how they can sell it this way? It can look this way, right? Us put in a blockade, we're boarding ships. They know how to take this and flip it and make it look again. Oh, it's just the imperial US coming into our territory, thinking they can control everything, wanting the oil, wanting the power, wanting the influence, and it goes a long way. And so from Tehran's perspective, you know, the Strait of Hormuz isn't like geography. It's just another point where they can create some uncertainty. And of course, that uncertainty gives the regime Leverage. You know, a central part of Iran's strategy is messaging how this conflict is perceived. You know, a lot of people are talking about the information warfare around this. And we see this. You know, it doesn't matter what social media platform you're on. There is massive amounts of, you know, pro Iranian messaging out there, right? And this gets out to millions and millions of people. It has impacts. And so Iran is seeking to operate in this space where they look like they're reactive. You know, they're not initiating this. They're protecting themselves. The US Came in and bombed them. That's the way they're playing it. They're saying, well, anytime we put in some sort of escalation, well, that's defensive. We have to respond if we're being attacked. And then they shift all that responsibility and the consequences to United States. You know, they say, well, we wouldn't be shooting missiles at any of our neighbors, you know, if you weren't attacking us. And if those neighbors weren't allowing you to use their airspace, see how they can play this very well to their advantage. Why does this matter? It's because perception really does affect international response. So as I said earlier, right, if they focus on us being the aggressor in the war, they get to play the victim. Obviously, the victim card can be very valuable. But think about it. If it was reversed and Iran was viewed as the aggressor, how would it impact some of the things they've been successful with? One is it would probably put a stronger and broader coalition together against Iran. Right now, Iran feels like it's done a really good job of influencing the eu, especially the UK and France. In the regime's perspective, it's like, hey, they might not be exactly on our side, but they didn't back the US and so that matters to us. Another thing is they feel like they've been very, very successful at saying, hey, we didn't cause any of this. And look at some of this regional Arab aggression, backing the US Imperialists against us. And of course, they leaned in very heavily on blaming the United Arab Emirates. And so they say, of course we're bombing the Emirates. Now, if they had some unity and solidarity with us, right, they backed their Muslim brothers and kicked the US out of their country and didn't support this war in some way. Of course we wouldn't send missiles at them. But as long as they're harboring Americans, American companies, the US Embassy, anything to do with the US Government, we have to respond and attack. We're on the Defensive. And so they've played this really well. Another key pieces, Iran is looking at it, and they're like, hey, there's only so many big players in the world stage, right? There's the U.S. there's China. Well, to Iran, they believe China is backing us. Heck, China's giving us imagery to target Americans, right? They are in a corner. And then, of course, they're getting signaling from Russia. Russia backs us, and we have a great relationship because we've backed Russia and Ukraine. So from a power perspective, Iran doesn't really feel like they're up against the ropes because they're like, well, there's three major world powers. Two are in a corner, right? We are in a good position right now. So Iran knows, do everything possible to not look like the aggressor, because we don't want any of this unity against us to weaken. We don't want to allow extra diplomatic space to open, right? To give us, like, more leverage in these negotiations or even to bring in other countries to help influence, support the US in these negotiations. And they just want the pressure on the US to mount. And it doesn't matter for them where the pressure mounts from. If the pressure comes from near peer, if the pressure comes from our allies like in NATO, if the pressure comes just from the American citizens, any of those are a benefit to the Iranian regime. So when Iran thinks of escalation, they're not thinking about it kind of as like this kinetic action. They're thinking about it as like, narrative positioning. If we do X, then how can we sell it? So from Tehran's perspective, they don't need some massive victory in battle. They just need to keep this ambiguity and responsibility, right? And right now they're saying, hey, the US Is responsible for all of this. We're just responding. We're trying to make a deal that's fair to us. We don't know why there's this aggression against us. We don't know why our neighbors are backing these imperialist Americans. And they're playing this off so well. And a lot of people don't actually take the time to look and say, this is their strategy. They do it the exact same way every time. And we almost become surprised by the way they do it, right? We expect, oh, we killed all these commanders and all these leaders. Of course, they're fearful now and they're going to make a deal. That's not the way they look at it all. They just have to outlast us, and they know they will. 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And at checkout, let them know the watch floor sent you. So from the Western thinking perspective, right, if you're in the government, you view negotiations as separate from conflict. But in Iran, strategic thinking, they are a key part of it. So negotiations serve some key major purposes for the Iranians. First, it reduces any immediate pressure on the regime. It buys them time. Now, lots of times that time is sanctions relief. But it's also time to maybe harden different military threats. The US hasn't struck this yet. How can we defend it with this time. We're buying ourselves with negotiations. The last part is they like the time of the negotiations to test the divisions between the US and their allies and then to see where the cleavage is and where can we play on these divisions that are occurring. So this is very important for the Iranians. It's this concept of time itself. As we said earlier, the US Operates on election cycles. We have constantly shifting administrations. Iran has none of that. They don't have that kind of burden of the change. So from Tehran's perspective, time becomes a strategic resource, a resource that delays and reduces pressure on the regime. A resource that changes the political conditions. They know in the US six months difference can be all a change in how our government looks at things, especially now that we're over about two months into this conflict. The President of the United States can do these short term effects, but at some point he has to get congressional approval. Iran knows this and they're understanding. They're sitting around waiting to see what happens. They're waiting to see Congress do a vote right on having some sort of military intervention and then depending on that vote, seeing how the administration reacts to it. Now, from Tehran's point of view, their assessment is, well, Congress isn't going to prove it and then the administration is just going to blame Congress and then make a deal and kind of wipe their hands of it. You know, not saying that's going to happen, but that is like their number one objective for this near term, the next couple weeks. Also kind of with time and delay, it can really reset negotiations entirely. We can say this is the key piece of the negotiations. And we know a lot of it's been the nuclear program, program, what to do with the enriched uranium, et cetera. Well, as time goes on, we've seen this many times in negotiations, certain things fall off as you try to get closer to a compromise. And they know that the longer the delay, the more will fall off. That affects them and they don't want to be any part of. That's why these talks appear slow and incremental. That's what the regime is trying to do. They aren't going to work on the American's timeline of things. They don't care to do this quickly. They could spend 100 years on these negotiations. It's a different thought pattern and it's not necessarily indecision. A lot of people like, well, they can't make a decision. They haven't even really decided who's leading the country. None of that is what's happening. It's them creating leverage, and they're using time to do it. Now, it's very clear to anyone watching this war that a key battlefield for Iran is, of course, information. And the goal here is not just to persuade. It's to shape kind of this emotional interpretation of events. So right now, Iranian messaging is emphasizing a few key points. One is civilian suffering. You know, when I was watching Iranian tv, almost every commercial had some sort of civilian suffering, and it mostly was children. In one case, they had children that made this, like, makeshift swing on a bulldozer. And of course, they're swinging and laughing. And then of course, a US Airstrike comes in and kills them, right? It's very in your face. It's blaming the US and the suffering of your people. Another thing is this. There is this, like, sovereignty, right? This is our land. Like, what are they doing here? Why are they bombing our land? And then there's this thought of these resistance narratives, right? We're fighting this imperialist force. And they're spending a lot of time too, talking about others within the resistance. There's a lot of news going out on Hezbollah and that resistance fight and their success. And some of the things like their successful drone program. And even in our country of Iran, like, they're saying, is our successful drone program. And so they're doing a really good job of just putting out these narratives that emphasize, hey, our people are being hurt. The resistance is doing their best to fight this. We're trying to use newer technologies where we can, like drones. And they're also framing this, this anti intervention kind of policy of things like, hey, we just want to live our lives. The funny part is we saw a little conference they put together saying, we just want peace, we want peace in the region. The US Is coming in and intervening. Like I told you, they were framing it as the US Came in and they're doing piracy in the Strait of Hormuz. This is just a crazy thing to see. You don't see piracy usually here. And then there's a lot of these regional themes, like, you know, there needs to be unity among Muslims. You know, if the US Is going to come into our region and show this type of aggression, why are we allowing them to be in the region at all? And what should we do with the countries that allow them to stay or allow them to commit these acts or allow them to have military bases? So they're constantly covering all these type of things and then playing completely innocent, like they don't have any impacts on the region. Like they have not committed any terrorism in the region. Like, they haven't intervened in any country in the region. Like, they don't run proxies all over the region. It's like almost a rewriting of history, but it's occurring in real time. And the crazy part is you are seeing Americans take this Iranian propaganda and say it without then having that other layer of the history of Iranian aggression, of Iranian terrorism, of what they're doing with the money in their country. It's not going to the people, it's not going to help this huge problem with the economy. They are funding our enemies. Another thing, when it comes to information and their messaging, they really want to spend a lot of time highlighting divisions, divisions between Western policy and public opinion. And the strategic objective here is incredibly simple. If you can shape how the audience interprets events, you can shape how they respond to them. Right? It's a very simple concept. We forget how smart the enemy is. So, for example, they're showing our military strikes, and then they're framing it as, you can imagine, aggression. They're showing their response that they're needing to defend themselves, right, from this military that is powerful and controls the world. And then they use this civilian imagery for global sympathy. Right? They learn how to do this very, very, very well in places like Gaza. And it's like the same playbook again and again and again. So it's not just messaging. You can't look at, oh, the cool Lego videos as just messaging. It's applied pressure through perception. Another thing Iran is doing, of course, it's with a hidden hand, or they're acting like it's off the books, is they're extending their influence, as always, through these allied groups. So, of course, when we were in the ceasefire period, they could still use their proxies and alliances and allies to put pressure on the us, but claim that they have no knowledge of it. Right. We saw it in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Yemen. Of course, they've long done it in Syria. And this strategically creates something that's very valuable to Iran. So we already said how important time is. Well, this creates distance, so it's not happening in Iran. It's not their backyard. So it's not exactly a direct confrontation, so no one's going to call it that. So it produces some key advantages for the Iranian regime. Of course, the most important and what they're famous for is plausible deniability. It also distributes pressure on different US interests, and then it creates multiple simultaneous challenges that the US has to deal with. So it ends up Looking like, oh, the US Went into Iran and look at all this conflict and all these problems and all these outbursts in the region because of it. See how that works? It becomes because of US action in the region, not Iran then is telling all these actors, okay, now do something as a part of this. So in simple terms, Iran just widens the battlefield without widening the war. So let's just end this by talking about what's happening going forward. From Iran's perspective, they're viewing this confrontation from two clear pathways. First, it's just the fact that it's escalation. Wider conflict would bring things like significant economic disruption, regional instability, and then high political costs for all sides. Second, they're viewing it as kind of. It could likely become negotiation and de escalation. What that can bring for them is some sort of sanctions relief, hopefully some sort of economic recovery and then a preservation of regime stability. Right? This is the angle they're going for. You know, at the end of the day, they want to cut a deal, right? They want to lose nothing and gain something and call it a victory. So from Washington's perspective, this is a contest over nuclear capability, regional influence and even maritime security. But from Tehran's point of view, it's a deeper contest. Right? It's this test of endurance. It's a test of narrative control. It's a test of political patience, something we are not good at. And when you look at this framework, victory's nothing to do with battlefield dominance. It's like a whole, whole nother form of battlefield. It's defined by the sustained pressure around the opponent's perception of cost. Right? What's it costing the us? What's it costing Iran? Who can weather those costs? Who politically can't? So, you know, one last strategic reality that's super important to understand is this conflict. Conflict isn't at all about military escalation. It's about this decision making under uncertainty. And whoever controls that uncertainty controls the psychological battlefield. And that's what's going to win this war, at least win the war in the narratives the enemy wants to project. Thanks for being here today on the watch floor.