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specialoffer welcome to the Watch floor. I'm Sarah Adams. When people think about the decision logic behind a terrorist attack, they usually just assume it's based on ideology. That's only partially true. You need more than ideology to carry out an attack. You need someone to make a real decision. You need the person or the head of a group to choose the target, to decide when to strike, to determin, what are the vulnerabilities? And then how do we get around these security weaknesses? And then is now the time to have a success and does it trump the risks right now to even carry out this event today? We're not going to focus on why terrorists believe what they believe. We're going to talk about the thinking behind successful attacks and what is a success. We're going to walk through three real world attacks. We're going to talk about the 2008 Mumbai attacks in India carried out by Lashkari Tayba. We're going to talk about the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya carried out by Al Shabaab. And then we're going to talk about the November 2015 Paris attacks carried out by ISIS. So we have three different regions, three different groups, but you'll see they have a lot of the same and underlying decision making processes. It's not just about what happened when we talk about these attacks, it's how and why certain decisions were made to either prolong these attacks, to choose the correct targets to lead to higher casualties. Because once you understand this decision logic, you can start seeing the signs before an attack even happens. There's a common belief that terrorists choose targets solely based on symbolism. And that's not wrong, but it's incredibly incomplete. So terrorists choose targets based on a number of things and they weigh certain factors. So when we talk about those factors, they are psychological impact, accessibility, vulnerability, ability to control the environment, and media attention. It's not exactly the question, is this target symbolic? The question more is, how can we get at the target and be successful? A really great example of this and a question I've heard people have before is when it comes back to our Benghazi attacks, they say, okay, well, if Al Qaeda wanted Ambassador Chris Stevens, why do they not go get him at the US Embassy, a more symbolic target that was based in Tripoli, then wait and try to get him at kind of this outpost, which was a US Mission and we call it the consulate, where he rarely spent time. And this is really important for people to understand. So of course the terrorists looked at both locations and they decided the US Embassy was a lot more fortified. So, yes, that is a more symbolic target. Right. It would have brought maybe more media attention, but their goal was to capture the US Ambassador. So they had to make the tactical decision of when it was best to capture him. And then, as you can imagine, they had to be flexible and fluid because they did not know when he would come to Benghazi. So as most people know, Ambassador Stevens was in Libya during the Revolution in 2011. He went home to got appointed. The ambassador came back in May. It was in June of 2012 that the terrorists decided to do this attack. And then the ambassador stayed in Tripoli in June, he stayed in Tripoli in July. He was supposed to travel to Benghazi in August. It got canceled for security reasons. Finally, it was decided in early September that he would travel to Benghazi. And it was September 6 when the terrorists quickly put in the last pieces of the plot to carry out this operation. And again, it's because it was a weaker security posture. He was much more time and place predictable, and there was actually a bigger terrorism force in that city to even help support this event. So I just want you to keep those things in mind. It might not always be something like the US Embassy. They choose if there is an operational win by going at another location. This episode is brought to you by Pocket Hose, the world's number one expandable hose. We all know what it's like to use traditional garden hoses. They are beyond frustrating. They kink, they always twist up by the side spigot. And anytime you're trying to do something quickly, they get all tangled up. Old fashioned hoses never stop getting those kinks and those creases. But the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees, which allows for full water flow and really just freedom to water all around your house. 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The first case studies from November 26 and 2018, this is when the 10 Lashgray Taybah terrorists carried out kind of this massive assault in Mumbai. So this event lasted over 60 hours. Unfortunately, 166 people were killed, over 300 were injured. I mean, this is a pretty massive event. Some of the main locations that occurred at was the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, which was like the most luxurious hotel in the city, the Oberoi Trident Hotel. This was known for a lot of international and business visitors. And then of course the train terminal. You know, this is a historic place. It was even a World heritage site. But it was also one of the busiest terminals in the entire country. And lastly, the Narum House, which was a Jewish target. And again, it kind of shows you the breadth of some of the targeting options in this. So each of these locations really did serve a different purpose for the terrace. So the hotels allowed them to control space, take hostages, extend the attack. The train station gave them an opportunity to carry out a mass casualty event. And then the Jewish welcoming center allowed them to do more of a religious image and to ensure that they also kind of hit on international targets, even though there are plenty as well within the hotels. So this attack wasn't like symbolic versus practical. It was both working in concert so it was planned in a very smart way. And like in any attack at this scale, they conducted reconnaissance ahead of time. They used GPS and satellite imagery, they entered the by sea to be undetected during the attack. They were sharing and receiving real time information updates so they can make changes and flex and move farther away from where law enforcement was posturing. And the event was planned for a maximum effect and it was incredibly successful. Before an attack happens, of course, terrorists have to really have the discussion about what all has to go right for this to succeed. Especially something as complex as what we saw in Mumbai. And reconnaissance and all the pre attack preparations are key to this. You have to spend the time on target to make this happen. So attackers visited locations multiple times. They watch the security behaviors at these locations. They identified the weak points, they paid attention to when crowds were the highest. And this isn't random, it's deliberate testing. And if you stay tuned to the watch floor, we're going to do a follow up episode to talk about those signs people miss in advance of terrorist attacks. So we won't just discuss how the terrorists think about it. We actually want you to know what to look for so you can help report if there's anything suspicious. And to get ahead of this type of place planning and plotting. Obviously Mumbai was a highly coordinated event, but studies show that between 25 to 35% of terrorists, even if they're just lone attackers, actually go conduct on the ground surveillance. And then of course, when it's a coordinated event, that percentage is even higher. So that work, as you can imagine, reduces uncertainty for the terrorists when they go carry out the attack. But it gives us an opportunity to see something out of the ordinary and report it. Let's jump into our second case study. This one is from September 21, 2013 when Al Shabaab terrorists entered the Westgate mall in Nairobi. And this attack lasted four days. I spent lots of time watching this one over and over because you learn so much from it. So 66 people were killed and more than 170 people were injured. And Westgate wasn't really like globally symbolic in some way. But what mattered is it was a great operational target because 25,000 people per day went into this mall. I mean that's a massive number. The other thing is because it's a mall, it had multiple entrances. You know, there was inconsistent security even for such a high level of foot traffic. You know, investigations showed that the terrorists went to the mall multiple times. And they looked for, of course, where the guards were placed. You Know, when their shifts were changing, they identified different gaps in security. They understood the peak hours, and then they made sure to exploit everything they learned from being inside. You know, there's a key takeaway here. The target does not have to be symbolic. The attack itself can create symbolism. So attackers are really making practical decisions. They're asking a few questions. First, what can I realistically access? Do I even know how to use this tool? What fits into the environment we're going to be operating in? And will using this tool create the outcome I want? So the weapon isn't exactly the point. The outcome is. I want to break that down just for a second. So accessibility matters. We get this question all the time when there's terrorist attacks and the attack is carried out by a knife. And a lot of people are like, well, why didn't they just get like an assault rifle and use it, right? But in some places, it's incredibly difficult to get those kind of weapons, especially if you're a lone attacker and you're not a part of an actual terrorist movement where they bring the weapons to you. So you have to use what is available. And you'll see in terrorist training camps, they train on these type of things. So if you're in an ISIS camp, you will spend more time learning how to employ a knife in an attack. When you're in Al Qaeda camp, they know you'll be able to get the weapons. So you spend a lot of time working, actually in small teams. You'll learn how to make IEDs. They also teach you kind of the next step up, hey, you're likely going to be near big crowds. You know, let's show you how to make, like, vehicle bombs or larger suicide bombs, et cetera. It's always going to depend on the environment, you know, what tool you use. So in tighter spaces, we see firearms and knives. In open, crowded spaces, you know, we might see a series of IEDs or vehicle bombings. And then in controlled environments where someone might have to go through security, we might see some sort of, like, hidden explosive device. You know, like we talk about with the old underwear bomber. Let's just look in 2016 at the nice truck attack, right? That's when the terrorists decided to attack the Bastille Day celebrations. Obviously, this was a densely packed crowd, so it was easier to get through the barriers and get at the crowd if you use, like a box truck. And that's why it was chosen, right? So it could cause, like, a mass casualty or really inflict damages. Attackers don't actually need, like a Certain firearm, a special explosive or a complex weapon system, the environment itself becomes a vulnerability. Let's move to the third case study. This was on November 13, 2015 in Paris. This is when ISIS carried out the coordinated attacks on the city across multiple locations. We unfortunately had 130 people killed, 350 injured. They focused on a number of places. Obviously most know about the Bataclan Theater, the Stand de France, and then multiple restaurants and cafes. Right. That the terrorists observed, you know, during their reconnaissance prior to this event. So the attack was actually in this case coordinated across borders. There is planning from Syria, from Belgium, and then of course, right inside of France. They use safe houses, they move weapons between France and Belgium, they use encrypted communications, they coordinated the timing of the events. So multiple chaotic events would occur at the same time. And as you know, that stretches security pretty thin. It also creates a lot of misinformation and a lot of panic. They used suicide vests to guarantee lethality. They used automatic weapons to sustain the attack. And then they use multiple teams to ensure the attacks can continue and that they could help push off or delay any sort of first responders from getting to the scene. So every decision reinforced the next. And here we had nine attackers working in concert, very similar to Mumbai, to carry out this level of an attack. Right. They all had to think together. So we walked through three different case studies, three different attacks, but they all had very similar patterns. If you notice, there wasn't really a single decision. There is a chain of events. We had the outcome, the target, the location, reconnaissance, any sort of adjustments that need to be made during the attacks, and then of course, the execution of the entire event. At any point, those plans could change or adjust, you know, tariffs. When they're on the objective, they're much more flexible than what people realize because when they're going through their dry runs and their practice, they prepare for if, oh, I might have to shift locations, or oh, what if a law enforcement officer arrives sooner? Oh wait, what if our IDs don't go off? So they're constantly thinking through those what ifs of how I'm going to shift. So in real time, they are better prepared to make decisions on the fly. Remember, when we're talking about a terrorist attack, the goal isn't exactly the target. The goal is the outcome of the event. And so that's the way the terrorists think about it, and that's the way we have to keep it on the top of our minds. Now let's talk a little bit about Reality here, the good thing is most terrorist attacks succeed, right? It's either the fault of the attackers, maybe they prepared the bombs wrong, or we do have a trained first responder or security guard, et cetera, that steps up and stops the event. Like huge wins. We also though, have the public involved. So when there is this planning going on and there's surveillance stages, any tips coming in on that? Of course, course can also help thwart the attack. And sometimes you don't even know an attack was thwarted. Right? Dozens of attacks get thwarted a year and there maybe was one little piece that stopped it and we never know what the final result would have been or what it would look like. But that is the wins we want, right? It all comes down to observation. So if we have people noticing unusual behavior, repeated surveillance, strange questions, and just the testing of boundaries around certain locations, these tips help play a role in stopping attacks. And we're going to keep putting out episodes that helps you better think through what you really should be looking for. If there's one thing to understand, it's this. Terrorist attacks don't start with a target. They start with an outcome. Everything else, including the location, the timing, the weapons, and even the skill symbolism, are all chosen to actually make the preferred outcome possible. And if you understand that, you'll stop seeing attacks as random and you'll start seeing the decisions behind them. And that's what we want to empower you to do. Thanks for being here today on the watch floor.