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Experian welcome to the Watch Floo Sarah I'm Sarah Adams. Right now we're at this interesting and consequential moment. The US Administration chose to take out Iranians Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. It's of course led to ripple effects across Iran. Now yes, this regime is highly organized and of course has plans in place place for this, but it does not mean that they expected it to happen. And so we have a lot of questions to go through. And today we're really going to talk about what the threat picture looks like right now. But we have to also remember that this regime for decades has caused harm to Americans. All the way Back to the 1983 Marine Barracks bombings and then other targetings of course, across Lebanon at the time, including against the CIA and other U.S. diplomats. We had the 1994AMIA bombings all the way over in Argentina. Right. Knowing the breadth that they can reach, we of course had them lots of times try to do it with a hidden hand. But of course they were involved in what, over 600 deaths of U.S. service members in Iraq. We've had from 1979 when they did the first real hostage taking, to today when they still will take Americans or at least dual nationals as hostage and use them as leverage against our government. Right. Hostage deployment diplomacy is a really big thing and it's brought in amazingly, a lot of legitimacy to the Iranian regime, a lot of money to the Iranian regime. And it's giving them a lot of passes, especially when it comes to their nuclear enrichment. So we are entering a new era and no one exactly knows what that's gonna look like, especially after we're assuming more layers of leadership are still set to be killed going forward. This isn't a government where you can just remove one man. So there are many unknown. What I want to spend time on today though is not guessing what those unknowns might turn out to be or how government formation might look. I want to talk about the ways the current regime as it is can vent. They can vent militarily through their proxies, through cyber operations, economically, psychologically. And we're going to walk through what that looks like, how it maybe has looked in the past, just so you can be prepared, because there's so much information coming out that, you know there's an Iranian sleeper cell in every corner of this country. And that's not exactly true, but you do need to understand the entire threat picture so you can be best prepared and aware of what could eventually pop off. So when it comes to a threat assessment, I want to walk through like each layer. Of course, the top tier, tier one layer of this and the threat that is posed the most is to, of course, Americans serving overseas. First it's our US Military personnel in the Gulf, then it is anybody who supports their efforts. It could be defense contractors, intelligence officers, then diplomatic staff at U.S. embassies because these individuals are the U.S. representatives overseas. And of course, to a regime like Iran, they are the same as hitting US Military targets. They view it as an equal retaliation in this event. And of course they're most likely to come under target and be concerned. But we did see guidance even here in the United States from northcom, for example, telling active duty service members, you know, don't wear your uniforms out in public. Right. Maintain a lower profile. And that is important. Like, there's no reason to draw attention to yourself or to become a target in any way. You know, when we talk about how things have occurred in the past, obviously everyone's familiar with some of the limited strikes Iran took after we bombed the nuclear program this spring. And then if we go back like five years, when we killed Qasem Soleimani, they did the same thing. They attacked like US Bases in Iraq. And, and that's really a very similar model that we've seen over time. It's calibrated and kinetic and that is what we have seen, like public facing. It's because Iran likes to also do things with a hidden hand. So when they can, they prefer using their proxies and proxy warfare because they like having place plausible deniability, because this isn't just about military action. It's also about COVID influence. And they need to continue to make us look like the aggressors and the bad guys. And that misinformation is important. So if they look overly aggressive or if they're being blamed for everything, it's harder for them to say hey, no, the US Is the bully in the room, not us. It's a little bit of the game that they've always played. Now, if you're serving abroad and if you have family members serving abroad, because I am seeing a lot of people posting where their loved one's serving and saying they're worried about their safety. Like, let's not do that. You need to be very careful highlighting, you know, where troops are located, but of course, reduce any visibility, vary your routes, and be extra cognizant. We get lazy sometimes when we're overseas. Don't, you know, get back to, you know, looking for surveillance on your routes. Another thing is you really need to confirm your emergency action plans. I've made this joke many times, but it is true. When I was in Benghazi, we had dozens of people at our base and our evacuation plan was literally to put on scuba suits and swim out to the ocean and catch a boat. First off, there's only a handful of suits. Nobody maybe wanted to were scuba certified because that was from during the revolution and there was no boat to swim out to, right? So make sure the plan is up to date because you would be so surprised that they really aren't. Another thing is keep physical copies of the things you need. Your documents, you know, any kind of numbers. Medical, if you need to move quick. If you don't have your device, you know, that'll come in handy. You need to have rally points, especially if your family is with you overseas. You need to know the different medevac routes, and then you need to stay updated and in connection with your command. So when updates and information are coming out, you're not getting it delayed or you're not hearing it secondhand. You're getting it when it's put out immediately. Right? Because if there's a duck and cover, right, you don't want that five minutes late so early. Decisive action saves lives. You know, it's not perfect action, but it's decisive, right? You need to put a plan in place and you need to do things a little better so than you did them yesterday. And that's what we're always striving for, right? Let's get a little better at this. Let's get a little better at this because the enemy themselves are also getting better. Now then the other piece that matters is, of course, Americans who are just like, living or working in the Gulf. So we saw Iran has no problem just targeting civilian areas in places that we hadn't even seen them strike before, right? They start hitting around in the uae, near the Burj Khalifa. They struck in Oman, right. Kind of like a Switzerland in the region. So this was a wake up call for a lot of people who really didn't even consider that Iran would hit those locations or that Iran would only hit US Military bases in those regions. And of course they showed, right, they don't have a red line there. They will just straight hit civilians. And we've long known that they do this, right? That's what they did or attempted to do with a number of their attacks in Israel. So you just have to be aware of this and now plan for it. You know, at least the Emirates has done a really great job. Unfortunately, there has been some deaths, but they had about 500 different kind of, you know, missiles and drones come in. You know, they were able with their defenses to deal with most of them, but unfortunately they did have some deaths and then, you know, a few dozen injuries. So we, we do have people dying in these situations. So anything we can do to be smart, be prepared, be alert, you know, and not be in the wrong place at the wrong time is very, very helpful. So what we've seen in the Middle east in the last day or two is missile launches, you know, forcing airspace closures. We've had drone operations targeting critical infrastructure. We've had airport disruptions, and of course we saw even in Dubai the airport specifically targeted. Then we've had a number of regional flight restrictions. So also, if you're in those locations, you might not be able to leave immediately. So you have to think through, okay, if I'm going to be locked down for a short period, what's that going to look like? We have Americans all over this region. Doesn't matter if it's Dubai or Abu Dhabi or Muscat, Doha, etc. Right. Situational awareness is very important right now. So here's a few practical steps. If you're an American right now living in the Middle east, my number one recommendation is, and because I saw so many people do this in Ukraine and unfortunately people die. If you have your phone and your device and you bought it in the United States, it is going to show it's an American device even if you're in Dubai and the Mall. So the best thing to do is just go out on the local economy and get a SIM in a device and it quickly eliminates that so you don't have this massive flag like, hey, there's an American here with a device. You know, another thing is avoid anywhere that those flashpoints and like protests just Kind of come out of nowhere. If you're living in a city, you know exactly where those locations are. You also need to, unless you have an emergency, just stay away from any embassies or consulates right now. A lot of people, even if some people go there and want to safely protest, there are many who want to take advantage of the situation, you know, and do some sort of attacks on them. We've of course seen attempts at our embassies in Karachi and Lahore. We have an issue where, you know, people are forming outside of, you know, our embassy in Baghdad. So just be smart and stay away from those locations. Another thing is kind of any government building because we're in a situation where some of these countries across the Gulf are likely going to retaliate if they keep getting hit, like a Saudi, the Emirates, they might strike back at Iran. And then it makes those government institutions and building areas dangerous because then they could become targets. So we got to think second, third, fourth or third border effects to keep ourselves safe. Another thing is wested branded hotels or hotels where a number of Westerners go or even restaurants. Like, you know, just stay away from those locations for the time being. You know, it's a smart move. Also, I say this all the time, but it's super important. Download offline maps of where you are. So if you can't connect in some way while you're using your gps, you will have the map to use. Obviously, no multiple routes to, you know, the residents you're staying in to hospitals, et cetera. You know, like I said with military members. Keep hard copies or at least scans on a second device, you know, of the documents you're going to need. Have your go bag, make sure you're signed up for the STEP program or any kind of, you know, embassy alerts in your area from the U.S. embassy. And then, you know, watch any kind of airline notifications exclude, especially if you're planning to travel, because airspace can open and close really fast. Now we do have the risk always, but it can be elevated now of like hostage risk travel or just harm even coming to an American traveler. So it's just something we have to think about. You know, you can be an American in a country that they might be upset over this targeting and end up in the wrong place at the wrong time. You know, it's just the truth. And, and we know Iran has always tried to use Americans and hostages as leverage. Right? It's one of the key modus operandi. So if you're like a dual national American, you're Living overseas, you need to have a heightened sense of awareness. You don't put yourself into a difficult situation. So also limit any travel to jurisdictions that are close to Iran, or at least the population might have Iranian sympathies then. We mentioned it earlier, but please enroll in the State Department step program. You can get real time alerts and then it just helps our government know, hey, what Americans are actually in this area if something happens. Another thing is share any itineraries with your family, people who are not there at your location with you, and then just avoid any public commentary. You know, these are now becoming very sensitive environments and it's not like you're in the United States and you have the freedom of speech you are used to and accustomed to and something might be taken the wrong way. And even in these regimes, when these things are happening, they can get very paranoid of foreigners and think you might be a part of trying to agitate things and you don't want to put yourself in that situation, especially when you have no involvement. You know, just keep yourself safe and be smart. Especially online. We're going to move into the most likely battlefield the majority of people might see as retaliation. And of course it's in the cyberspace now. It's so easy to put short term operations into place quickly when they're cyber operations. Especially when you have the capabilities that Iran has. Just so you're aware, in the past, Iran has previously targeted US banks, infrastructure, public industry, and then of course different networks run by the US Government. The interesting thing with cyber retaliation is that of course it offers speed, deniability and then a scalable response. So discipline really matters. In this case, you need to be part of the defense against these cyber attacks. So if you're working right now in the government, maybe in defense contracting, you work on critical infrastructure, you're in the military, et cetera. Here's a few things. So just to keep in the back of your mind, I know you train on these things, but we get lazy. Don't click any unfamiliar emails right now, right off limits. That's my whole inbox. Looks like that, right? Never clicking any of those. Another one is don't open any unknown attachments. Also, we said this in a recent episode, but it's important if anyone new is reaching out to you on LinkedIn right now, ignore the requests. You don't have to respond to everyone. Lastly, don't approve any sort of suspicious logins to your account. You know, if they come in quickly in your email and it says, is this you? You know, make sure, you really did sign in because we're in this era where we're just doing things quick and accepting things quickly and we can miss things, you know, when we're moving this fast or things have become automatic for us. So just be careful with that. We've all seen again and again phishing campaign spike with geopolitical crisis. I mean it's a playbook. Everyone takes advantage at this time and just don't be someone they take advantage of. You don't want to be the calculus or the person who opened the door and let this foreign adversary into your place of work because they target a person. Usually that's where cyber intrusion begins. A lot of people forget that. They usually just identify human and get in that way. Well, don't be that person now if you're an individual and you're worried about this or even you know a media company because they get a lot of targeting during this time. We just saw a media outlet, two of them I think in Pakistan that got taken over by the Taliban in this way. Make sure you turn on your multi factor authentication. Keep your devices update. If you don't have what is dealing with the current patch, it of course makes your device vulnerable. Another thing is be skeptical of anything that comes to you and says it's urgent. We need a response now. Open now. Delete, delete, delete. Another thing is verify any breaking news before you share it, especially if it has links or you're forwarding this unknown message to people within your circle or your family or especially your coworkers. Then backup any important files you have, but bring them offline. Right? Your only backup shouldn't be in icloud. I always like to tell people, just get your old iPad you don't use anymore and just save them all on there. You can keep it in your go, big, fully charged and you always have it. It's very simple. Remember, these cyber intrusions really begin with social engineering. And so the human layer is the softest target here. So don't be that layer. Very simple. Now the escalation most people understand and know the best when it comes to Iran is proxy escalation. That's of course because Iran barely operates alone and it's smart for them to use their proxies because they get to again have that hidden hand. The most famous and capable person proxy for years has been Hezbollah. But we also need to make it clear that Iran and I just mentioned this. If you saw our episode on unit 840 they work with a host of actors. It's not just terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Taliban, Al Qaeda, et cetera. They work with criminal organizations, they work with drug smuggling organizations, they work with mafia organizations. Right. Whoever is in that environment and they can leverage, they will use it because it helps with the plausible deniability and it takes risk off of them. If I can get a cartel to do this sort of casing or maybe this movement of this weapons I need in southern Texas, why would I take an Iranian national and do it? Especially right now when everybody is uber focused on Iranians because they don't understand our network is so much larger. I don't need to use an Iranian right to do this operation. So when we're talking about operations and when people worry about attacks, you know, proxies is, you know, one of those critical action elements and traditional elements, you know, Iran has use. So we have to watch for these proxies. We need to take them seriously and we need to understand that Tehran and them are almost like one. Like they're not working separately, right. They're taking guidance, looking for direction. And of course they're supportive of maintaining the status quo of each. Right. Hezbollah wants Iran to stay in charge. Al Qaeda wants regime to stay in charge. Right. These are shared goals and for years they have supported each other in different ways. And Al Qaeda is such a great example. For years the Iranian regime protected and hosted a number of senior leaders. Obviously Saif Al being one of the most famous ones who stayed in Iran until 2022. They were hosting Hamza bin Laden who lived in Iran until 2020. So these are long established close relationships. And of course, course now Al Qaeda owes them for the protection they pass on to them. So you just remember there's some quid pro quo here, you know, on the table. Some of these groups also owe favors to each other and we can't forget that. Now another thing we need to talk about, of course is Iran will probably increase as well. It's targeting of Israeli or Jewish targets not just in the Middle east, but of course across the United States. So it's something else to keep in mind. Of course we need to have extra vigilance in our own religious institutions that we visit, but especially, you know, be extra cautious when you near, you know, one of these, you know, Israeli like synagogues or community centers as well because they are also going to be in this heightened threat environment. And if you do church security, have a relationship with them, you should be doing information sharing with about what you're seeing. If there has been any suspicious incidents, if there has Been something that looked like casing. If anyone has come in and asked strange questions, et cetera, like work together with those in your community because you all can see what's happening on the ground and you should be partnering together to defend each other, then we have to, of course, talk about maritime and energy pressure. Of course. Of course, the Strait of Hormuz is going to be on everybody's radar right now. It's such an important choke point. And Iran has previously seized tankers, they've harassed commercial vessels, they use different naval swarming attacks. And then of course, if you head more east, they've used proxies and relationships, especially with the Houthis, to then cause other maritime disruptions. These are tools and they're toolkits we should watch for, be aware of and prepared for. Maritime disruption really does pressure global markets. It's not at the level like a massive terrorist attack will do, but it will cause enough disruption to where it is, massive impacts, and it adds costs. And one thing terrorists really like to do to us and other enemies is you add costs, you deploy, deplete resources, you wear the enemy down. You know, it's a very important thing in how they plan and think strategically and how they operationalize in different ways against us. Another thing, of course, it's on a lot of people's mind because we saw so much of it in Ukraine, but it's like this advanced drone and UAV capability. And Iran has kind of moved top tier in this because they spent a lot of time supplying Russia to support their operations, you know, in Russia's war in Ukraine. So we have to keep this in mind that drones also are causing their own issues. And even we've seen, right, lots of missiles stop. But it doesn't mean all the drone attacks can be stopped, you know, by these kind of air defense system. And it's something to keep in mind. Plus, drones, like, are so cheap. It's just this amazing way they can project power and carry out attacks. And it not, you know, be this super costly thing. Another thing is they are, as we said, so much harder to detect because we've always looked against the big fears, right, like intercontinental ballistic missiles, not some like thousand dollars drone. So, you know, the world's changing a little bit in this asymmetric warfare. Then it's so easy to transfer this technology and these capabilities to proxies. You know, I had spoke last summer about how there was the drone attack from the Houthis that reached the old US Embassy. It's now a mission compound in Israel. And it was interesting because it was a drone that wasn't believed to have gone that far in the past. And then Iran made it capable of traveling a farther distance. Right. It was kind of an update on the Shaheed. So it was an important thing to watch and also to see them transfer that technology to a terrorist group and in that case, the Houthis. So as things escalate, we do need to look for drone attacks, not just as we've seen. You know, unfortunately, there's been on some civilian targets, but military facilities, oil infrastructure, and then kind of shipping assets, port facilities, etc. The things that make our world go round. Now, back to the homeland, Everybody wants to understand the Iranian sleeper cells. What do they look like, how many are there? And just like last summer, it's all everyone's talking about and it almost is causing this wave of fear when there are even more terrorists from other groups on US soil than from the irgc, for example. So it's something to where, in my opinion, it was the same threat three days ago as it is today. But I understand now that you have all this pushing at you, it does make you feel more uncomfortable. So we do have to just talk through how this looks and what these sleeper cells are. Now, when we talk about the sleeper cells, primarily, if they're in an operational role, like where they're going to carry out an operation, primarily the cell is designed to carry out an assassination. Now, then it does all the pieces of it, right? The surveillance, the casing, the route detection, any type of planning it's going to take to then hopefully yield an assassination at the end. Luckily, as they do those things, they make a signature. And a lot of these efforts have been thwarted. And I recently brought that out in our unit 840. We talked about authority plot in Germany and another one in Britain, et cetera. So the good part is those operations also have like, tells in them that you can see, right? And it's why see something, say something is so important. Now, the sleeper infrastructure is layered and they have a number of capabilities. So one is, of course, they have these operational assets capable of violence. Right. Like I said, some are really meant to carry out an assassination. They also then have support networks. So those are people who do logistics, finance, procurement. They have huge financing, like more in the humanitarian space. So it's actually bringing in fundraising and donations that then goes back to terrorist groups. They have business and backstopping entities. So don't think every sleeper cell here from Iran can shoot a gu. The largest percent are Almost like under the operations piece of like how a business would be. Right. They are in that realm. So finance, marketing, logistics, business operations, et cetera. Because remember, when you're from the sanctioned country, you have to find ways to get around it. The ways to get around it is set up front companies and companies that look legitimate find different ways to move money, supplies, resources, all while circumventing sanctions. And this is a huge lift and this is what they really do spend the majority of their time on. So people aren't exactly being honest with you when they're saying, oh there's all these Iranian sleeper cells here. It's like, yeah, well how many? Their only job is to fundraise, right? Are they telling you that piece? No, they're not. Because it's become this kind of fear monger thing. Anytime we talk about Iran, you know, the last piece that is very important and I don't want to downplay it, cuz they're also not fighters, it's these sympathizers, media officials and those who are supposed to amplify fake news, you know, to promote the cause. A really great example in the last couple days has been unfortunately this IRGC missile that hit the this town and it impacted a children's school that sounds like it was a girls only school. Well, immediately we saw these pro terrorist account start to put out the fake misinformation that the US carried out their strike. Then Iran was smart and they had their ambassador to the UN go there and file an official complaint against the US of course when people looked at the trajectory of the missile, it came from inside Iran, but it spread like wildfire and it went viral all across social media, blaming either in some cases the US government or Israel, not Iran or the irgc. And you have to be cognizant that these campaigns are occurring because they can get dangerous, they can rile up a lot of people. It brought a ton of activists in the United States to the streets to protest against it when that's not even how it occurred. So pay attention to these influence campaigns because they really do cause a lot of damage and they're great at radicalizing and that's the last thing we need right now when we're already in this heightened state of alert. You know, we had this recent attack, you know, in Austin and we're still waiting to hear. But of course there are concerns he's been radicalized, you know, over our operation in Iran. He was already radical, right. But it pushed him up to an operational state that maybe he would not have reached. And so that is something we have to watch. And we have to watch any factor that moves people to these different stages because we obviously don't want that to happen. So we do have Iranian sleepers who can go operational if needed. But there is also this other threat vector that really isn't being discussed and it should be. It's those terrorist groups that Iran is aligned with that also can carry out attacks. One of the best examples is of course Al Qaeda, who is at least said publicly that they sent over a thousand terrorists here to actually commit attacks on the US homeland. So also just keep that in mind. Other groups can take advantage or they could do it in solidarity with Iran. Or we have the term not everybody loves. But it is the fact there's also these inspired individuals. A lot of people call them lone wolf actors, even though primary the most of the time when you look back, they're connected to a real group. And lone wolf is almost a way to downplay real operational pulp planning and preparation in larger scale attack plans. They don't always want you to know the individuals connected to a larger network because it's scary to the public when they actually start to sit back and realize just how many terrorists are actually in our communities and actively doing targeting and collecting and surveillance. When you use the term surveillance sleeper, it's not like people are locked away in a room waiting for some smoke signal. That is not what it is. They're actively doing something could be building IEDs. If they're on the logistics side, they're just renting safe houses, et cetera. There is always some sort of action occurring. And then in this kind of environment we're in, the radicalization piece can bring inspired individuals who want to commit an act in support of Iran or maybe some of the Iran Iraqi proxies, we've seen that before, obviously inspired by Hezbollah or in support of Hezbollah, et cetera. So that is going to be a risk and we just have to be aware of it and alert. And again, it wasn't a risk a week ago and it's still a risk a week from now. We just have to be honest because these actors are here in our country now. There is one piece just because it's happened in the past, so we have to talk about it is there are these risks to aviation and it's almost like maybe miscalculated risk. It's when there's so much going on, we have an airspace open, we have an airspace closed. We have people misidentifying things. Recently we actually had The Department of War misidentify a CBP drone and shoot it down. And prior to that, weeks before, they shot down a balloon. So these even happen within the best military. So Iran now is in this situation, they're feeling extra paranoia and there is, you know, the fear they could shoot down in a commercial airline or they have accidentally done it before. So we just need you to understand that these airline risks have really spiked. Now it is something where the majority of it is confusion. Right? We're not saying the Iranian regime is just going to come out and target civilian airliners. We don't believe that. But there's disinformation, a lot of misinformation. And there is that term people like to say there is this fog of war and accidents do happen, especially in these type of environments when there's a lot going on and nobody knows what's coming next. Now the piece everybody is always most concerned of it is lower on the scale as we walk through these threats. But of course we have to talk about it is kind of economic infrastructure, sabotage. Obviously Iran has sabotage units, right? The Quds Force has units that deploy to the West. And then of course we told you about unit 840 that also has a sabotage element. So we definitely can't rule out any sort of infrastructure. So sabotage, it's a lot lower in probability than just using cyber in some way to do this. But there are small risks to doing and seeing physical sabotage, industrial site targeting, you know, if they can, supply chain disruptions. And then again they're going to likely try to deny any involvement. If they do do it, they're gonna likely limit at what scope they do this. And then it's just kind of another piece if they're putting in different operations to support their asymmetric warfare pattern. Right. So they might just decide, hey, this helps us with this piece, it accomplishes this mission and that's why they do it. We don't think it's like this system staying campaign to bring down like the entire US electrical grid or something like that. It's not like at that level of a threat. And then this of course doesn't affect everyday Americans, but we have the risk or the fallout or the ripple effects of what internal Iranian instability is going to look like and what's going to happen with it in the weeks to come. So of course we don't know yet who is leading. But also it seems like the US intends to continue strikes. So it's not even clear who is still being targeted in the coming days. As you can imagine anytime a situation like this happens, the hardliners really get aggressive, right? They want to consolidate their power and their authority quickly and not allow any sort of power vacuum that takes away from them. And of course, that's right now still going to be the regime. They control the power. Another thing is there might be rival factions that get involved. And we also have this issue where Irene invited foreign actors. We have Iraqi terrorists, Afghans are part of things like the FETA UN Brigade who have been on the streets already killing civilians. So they're a factor in, in this country. And then there's just the proxy groups. Right. You know, if Hezbollah really decides to join in on this war, as people are turning, even though it's not really technically a war yet, but if Hezbollah gets involved and starts targeting locations, and if they do something, let's say the US Embassy in Beirut or something like that, that's then this ripple effect that comes from the internal stability as well that we just have to pay attention to, you know, so the bottom line is most Americans based in the United States aren't in imminent danger, but we need to be aware. The highest risks are, of course, to US Military personnel or any kind of diplomatic or intelligence officer serving overseas. Americans who are based inside Gulf states, anyone kind of associated with Israeli or Jewish facilities, you know, high profile political figures, obviously, like we saw after the death of Qasem Soleimani, they blamed it on President Trump and put a number of different assassination plots in place against our president. And then any kind of just critical infrastructure or sectors that are a part of kind of the US Defense industrial base. Who is helping the US Inside to do this, and then also who is helping the US externally to do this right? Who offered them airspace, who reached out and supported this operation? Who pushed for this to occur? The regime is paying attention to all those factors when they're planning any sort of retaliation. This isn't any sort of moment for panic. It's a moment for discipline to take time, step back, you know, think about the plans you've been putting in place. You know, a lot of, obviously the people who follow me have spent a lot of time working on their personal family emergency plans, thinking through, doing what if scenarios, you know, if they end up, you know, impacted in some way by a terrorist attack or another crisis, and it's now just the time. Let's review everything, make sure all of our ducks in a row. And then we need to be aware. We need to be situationally aware when we're out in public first off. If we can see something and say something and stop something, that's great. But also if we can get ourselves just out of a situation that doesn't feel right, that's even better. Our intent here is to not even be a part of any messes that occur as this goes forward. And people start getting, you know, really volatile and riled up over this incident. Even in the United States there's a huge split among people who think we should have got involved in Iran and think we shouldn't. And even that temperature is getting, I think, a little too high. You know, we need to like show respect to each other as we talk through things we don't all agree with. Like what am I going to watch for in the next seven days? It is a question I've gotten and I think it's important. First off, I'm going to look, of course to see who becomes these interim leaders. And then if there is a real body put in place to maybe be a transition government completely separate from the regime, because of course something like that could hold more power. The concern is if we don't take out enough of regime and just leave them in power to, is that going to be much of a change? Right. So we do have a lot of questions around this and things to watch for. You know, another thing is how is IRGC going to respond? Are their loyalties going to change? Like who are they going to back, you know, as all these dominoes are beginning to fall and then what they decide to do operationally, you know, in these moments, like are they focused more on preserving themselves? Is there going to be this die hard effort to preserve the regime, et cetera. So we'll have to see how all that plays out. Another thing is just the movement of their proxies. How are the proxies going to get involved? You know, what are their statements, you know, how is Hezbollah going to deal with this situation? What are the proxies going to do in Iraq? That can be very concerning because of course we still have facilities in the country. Then we have, as we brought up this cyber activity. We need to be watching for this because this will be probably one of the most visible retaliation pieces we at least see on this side of the world. Obviously you can watch missiles and drones fly in the Middle east, but when you're on US soil, it's kind of like, okay, what should we watch for? What should we expect? And I think we will be able to see, see some of the cyber activity then. Any kind of just aviation, maritime alerts and Threats, because there's just so much going on. Like I said, even if it's not something bad, there's of course going to be all of these airspace closures, a lot of miscommunication about what's going on. So it's just something, you know, to watch for and see how it all plays out. Another if there's any sort of hostage activities or different detentions or even disposal diplomacy around these type of topics, we want to make sure Americans stay safe abroad, don't become victims, not just to terrorist attacks, but any sort of hostage taking situation or anything that can accelerate to being a diplomatic issue. We don't want to give anyone leverage at this time. Then these disinformation spikes. This is incredibly important because a lot of people aren't good at science saying, oh yeah, that really was misinformation. So we have to watch for, of course, deep fake statements. There was one that went all over the place a couple days ago. It literally was like they were saying it was an Al Qaeda commander saying he backed Israel. First off, the flag behind him was like a Taliban flag, it was white. He had like a Pakistani accent, like he was from kind of like, you know, the old Khyber Province, except, et cetera, like not a known individual or terrorist. And everyone's like, this senior Al Qaeda leader is like, let's back Israel over Iran. One of the strangest things I've ever seen and I saw legitimate accounts sharing it. So let's not fall for these things. If you don't know who posted it and you don't even know the individual in the video talking, it's probably not something you should share. Another thing is kind of these fake claims about what the US military did or how they were impacted. Of course there was one that like these four missiles hit one of our carriers. It wasn't true. And then of course, we've already talked about this unfortunate incident where these young girls died in a school. Again, the US was not involved in that. That was an IRGC missile. So we don't want to help promote that type of misinformation. Then things like fake evacuation orders, those can be very dangerous, especially when everybody's like uncertain about what's happening. So if you're sharing something that says there's an evacuation of, let's say the US Embassy in Baghdad, make sure you're sharing it from the US Embassy's alert page and not some random page on X who's just putting out news. Right? There will be a formal and official notification. Make sure that's what you're looking for and sharing. And then I just seen tons of this in the recent little war happening between Pakistan, Afghanistan. It's like this manipulated footage. It could be of like fighter jets or missiles, etc. And so you have to watch and not be sharing this information. Some of it's just old video, you know, make sure it's really coming from a reputable source before you share it. And if you shared it by mistake, just go back and delete it or make a comment that, oh, this ended up being proven to be misinformation. Don't be part of the problem. The information battlefield moves so much quicker than the physical battlefield and we all need to just not be supporters of any sort of fake narratives. Let's look for the information that benefits us, it's useful to us and just let the noise be the noise. So the next seven days are really about posture messaging and like kind of detecting the different signals out there that could alert to some sort of threat streams. Most escalation pathways aren't binary, so they're incremental. We are watching for shifts, not just one single event that's going to pop off. A lot of people are like, oh, there's going to be alert that goes out to these sleepers and it'll all happen a day. And that's unfortunately just not how this ecosystem works. When we're talking about having this full spectrum awareness, that means let's watch what the Iranian leaders do in signal and also other leaders across the Gulf. Let's watch for the movement of proxies, what they're saying publicly and then what we physically see them do. Let's watch for these different patterns in cyber operations and cyber intrusions. And when we see something that might be benign, maybe take a minute and think, could this be Iranian? Another thing is just watching for this maritime friction as that can bubble up really quick and then watching of course, course for information manipulation. So this is a very serious moment and we do want people to take it seriously, but we just don't want it to kind of be this chaotic response or kind of anything stress or fear based. You know, as we go through this, you know, we're not operating in the dark, right? Iran has been an enemy of ours for decades. People might say some war just happened, but we've really been at war with Iran since the mullahs took power. And that just has been the truth. They started targeting us just several years after they took power in 1979. They never stopped harming Americans in all that time. So we understand their playbook. This isn't some new novel enemy for the US I want you to understand, because we understand the playbook, we can at least think through what likely threat scenarios would be because there is a long history of this. So most Americans at home in their communities are not in immediate danger. Even though I know it feels that way because now it's like broadcast across your screens 24. 7. The highest risks are kind of layered, geographic domain specific. And that's why you need awareness of all these different layered threats so you can watch as they potentially unfold in some of the categories we discussed today. So do not amplify rumors, do not feed disinformation. Let's just not be useful idiots for the enemy in this case. Right? So if there's any changes as we go forward in this threat environment, you know, we'll circle back and bring it here to the watch for we hope today was useful for you. And remember, you have the tools at your disposal. We've been in a fight against terrorists for two decades. You are much more prepared and ready and you're more clear eyed against this threat than you actually realize. Thanks for being here today.