← Runaway Country with Alex Wagner
Loading summary
Transcript172 lines
- [00:00]
Alex Wagner
This podcast is brought to you by Planned Parenthood Federation of America. Everyone deserves access to high quality, affordable health care, no matter what. That's why millions of people rely on Planned Parenthood health centers for services like cancer screenings, wellness exams, birth control, STI tests, and more. In fact, one in three women in the US have been to Planned Parenthood for care. So it kind of blows my mind that lawmakers are trying to permanently shut them down. They already passed a law that blocks patients who use Medicaid from getting the affordable preventative care they need, and now they want to make that law permanent. Nobody benefits when people are getting fewer exams, paying more for care, or just skipping the health care they need. And we know that's happening. Planned Parenthood health centers have reported that fewer patients are getting basic care like breast exams and STI tests since the Trump administration and their backers defunded. Planned Parenthood. Patients shouldn't suffer because of their laws. Our communities deserve better to get involved Text update to 22422 again, text update to 22422America's 250th birthday. The semi sesquintennial calls for a history as sprawling and contradictory as the country itself. A History of the United States in 100 Objects, produced by the BBC Studios and 99% Invisible, tells this story one OB told over 100 episodes. Join host Roman Mars as he reveals the fascinating story behind a collection of often overlooked objects, each of which sheds light on key moments in American history. From a gold coin found in a shipwreck that triggered financial panic to a tiny screw that kickstarted an industrial empire, Every week, one object will open the door to an extraordinary, often shocking story about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. New episodes of A History of The United States in 100 Objects are released every Tuesday. Find it in 99% invisible. Wherever you get your podcasts with VRBoCare, help is always ready before, during and after your stay. We've planned for the plot twists, so support is always available because a great trip starts with peace of mind. If the world were like a sleep number mattress, everything would adapt for your comfort. Because as your life change changes and your body changes, sleep number mattresses adapt and shift to give you personalized comfort night after night. And now it's the final days of
- [02:35]
Nikki Lorenzo
our Everything's On Sale event.
- [02:36]
Alex Wagner
Save up to $1,200 on mattresses. Our Memorial Day event ends Monday. To experience a whole new world of comfort, visit a Sleep number Store or go to sleepnumber.com sleep number to a good life Sleep Hi everyone. It is a complicated week to be a Republican. Okay, every week in the Trump era is a complicated week to be a Rep. But this week, four term Texas Senator John Cornyn was walloped in a runoff primary by the state's impeached and scandaled ultra maga former Attorney General Ken Paxton.
- [03:10]
Dan Pfeiffer
When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen. Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party and his endorsement in this most power is the most powerful, powerful force in politics. I trust the voters of Texas and they've made their decision and I must respect it.
- [03:35]
Alex Wagner
Cornyn's defeat isn't just symbolic of the death of the conservative establishment wing of the GOP at the hands of Donald Trump. It is also maybe the race that could move the Senate into Democratic control. Here's a clip from CBS the day
- [03:48]
Dan Pfeiffer
after and I think Ken Paxton being the nominee for the Republicans has given
- [03:53]
Alex Wagner
the Democrats a new level of motivation because Ken Paxton will now face Democrat James Talarico, a state representative and a seminarian and literally the opposite of Ken Paxton. In the words of my former colleague and Texas political savant Mark McKinnon, James Tallarigo could be Moses. So good job Donald Trump and Texas Republican voters. You have now given Texas a legitimate chance of turning blue this November. But the tumult and the chaos this week is not limited to the right. If the second biggest, most populous state in the union is dealing with political shockwaves, so too is the biggest. For the last seven years, Californians have been under the wing of Governor Gavin Newsom, who has emerged as one of the most prominent anti Trump voices on the left.
- [04:41]
Dan Pfeiffer
We could have decided to write an op ed. We could have decided, you know, hold hands, have a candlelight visual, win the argument. These guys are ruthless. On the other side, Trump's not screwing around and nor can we. Yeah, it's uncomfortable fighting fire with fire. Yes, we all want the better angels, but we'll lose our country. We will lose our country.
- [05:06]
Alex Wagner
That is Governor Gavin Newsom at a Center for American Progress conference last week where his 2028 presidential ambitions were not exactly a secret. Newsom is now term limited from running again, which begs the question, who replaces him? California, after all, is the avatar of anti Trumpism. It's arguably the most powerful blue state in the union, and it is one that's gotten even bluer this year. Thanks to voter approved redistricting for months, the frontrunner to replace Newsom was Representative Eric Swalwell. Until April, when some very disturbing and credible allegations of sexual misconduct came out. Here's a statement from one of his accusers, Lana Drewz, followed by Swalwell's rebuttal.
- [05:46]
Nikki Lorenzo
I arrived at his hotel room, I was already incapacitated and I couldn't move
- [05:54]
Alex Wagner
my arms or my body.
- [05:56]
Dan Pfeiffer
These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They are absolutely false. They did not happen. They have never happened. And I will fight them with everything that I have.
- [06:08]
Alex Wagner
Swalwell dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress on April 12, leaving Californians about 50 days until the primary. Cue the red balloons. In the weeks since, the gubernatorial race in California has been flooded with an almost unquantifiable number of hopefuls. No clear leader, Republicans doing better than they ought to in the state of California. And voters left struggling to make out candidates policies.
- [06:36]
Dan Pfeiffer
Me paying more taxes is not the answer. I've said I. Believe me. People say that again. Tom, we finish.
- [06:44]
Nikki Lorenzo
Mr. Hilton.
- [06:44]
Alex Wagner
Mr. Hilton.
- [06:45]
Dan Pfeiffer
I said one person putting more money into the system.
- [06:49]
Nikki Lorenzo
Mr. Hilton, if you guys are people at home won't be able to hear you.
- [06:52]
Dan Pfeiffer
So one person puts more money into the government. That doesn't solve it. We need structural change.
- [06:57]
Alex Wagner
That is billionaire Tom Steyer, sparring with Trump, endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, who along with Democrat Javier Becerra are the closest thing Californians have to front runners in this race. And the chaos is not limited to the California Governor's mansion. The mayoral race in Los Angeles, as in Los Angeles, California, has now been upended by, wait for it, a Republican reality TV star.
- [07:24]
Dan Pfeiffer
This is where Mayor Vass lives. You notice something? Or here, where Nithya Raman's three million dollar mansion sits. They don't have to live in the mess they've created. Where you live. This is where I live. They let my home burn down. I. I know what the consequences of failed leadership are. That's why I'm running for mayor.
- [07:44]
Alex Wagner
Spencer Pratt, the antihero of the reality TV show the Hills, and a Republican, is now polling in a not very distant second place against the city's current embattled mayor, Democrat Karen Bass. How the hell is this happening in California? The state has one of the most reliably blue electorates and has become an essential testing ground for the Democratic Party both in terms of what policies work and who is most successful at enacting them. But all of a sudden, Republicans in both the gubernatorial race and the mayoral race have seized on Democratic disarray to significant advantage. What is going on here? Just like Texas has lessons for Republicans, what is California telling Democrats? If the state is the Democrats lab, should the party be worried about the science? I'm Alex Wagner, and this week on Runaway country, what can the left learn from California's election chaos as the national party angles for power in Congress and eventually the White House? To dig into all of that, I'm going to be talking to the best in the biz, Crooked's own Dan Pfeiffer, host of Pod Save America and author of the Essential Message. Box substack. But first, I wanted to gauge the mood on the ground in California. So I'm talking to Nikki Lorenzo, an anchor and political reporter for Fox 40 in Sacramento. Nikki moderated a California gubernatorial primary debate last month and has conducted interviews with candidates including Democrat Katie Porter and Republican favorite Steve Hilton. She even sat down with Spencer Pratt. Here's our conversation. Nikki lorenzo, welcome to Runaway Country. So I am on the other side of the country in New York, but we understand, though it may not always seem in our media coverage, we understand the pivotal role that California plays in our national political dialogue. And it is both right now a mystery and a beacon for the rest of the country. Right. Give us, if you would, the big picture on the gubernatorial race. What are the issues that have really animated and sort of moved voter opinion in the 16 years that this race has been going on?
- [10:03]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yeah, it really does does feel like that. You know, I had to go back and look at when I started the coverage. It was two years ago. This, this like in the spring when the lieutenant governor announced she was running and was considered somebody that was going to be formidable because she's got a ton of money. She's not even in the race anymore. So that's how much the race has changed. And look, the implosion of Eric Swalwell after the scandal.
- [10:25]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [10:25]
Nikki Lorenzo
Really upended everything. I mean, he wasn't the front runner, I would say, but he had a lot of that momentum. He had all of the big union support, all of the interest support, and he was really on his way. So sort of after that, it was, you know, there was a lot of discussion of like, this is a boring race because you didn't have these big powerhouse names like a Gavin Newsome or a Jerry Brown or even like an Arnold Schwarzenegger. So people are like, you know, and with Donald Trump just dominating 24 7, it was hard to get people to pay attention to this race. After Kamala Harris decided Not to run. So it's like, okay, we have like sort of this list of candidates that nobody really knows. And you know, for the most part, you know, if we would have had a Democratic president, I think we would have had a different race. It really would have been more about sort of the issues in California. But it's really been who the, who is the candidate that's going to be able to fight Donald Trump. And Eric Swalwell, you know, had that resume and now with him out of the race, the focus has gone to Javier Becerra because he is, you know, the former Attorney general, sued the president over 100 times, former HHS secretary and member of Congress. And Democrats have really looked at the resume of Javier Becerra and not so much the issues. I mean, they're having. All the Democrats are kind of having this battle over who's for single payer health care, who's not, you know, who's flip flopped on this, you know, what can you really do as governor when it comes to the insurance crisis. But the big issue is affordability. But I just think with sort of the drama surrounding this race and lack of a clear front runner, we haven't really had the candidates define themselves on the issues. I was actually scheduled to do an interview with him the day before. I think it was 24 hours before the story broke. And I got a message from his campaign that there was some mishap in scheduling and he was not going to be able to make the interview. Let's see if we can have some time on site at the rally he was holding. So I contact the campaign on the ground here, we don't know about this, we're just going to cancel the interview altogether. We weren't really sure if there was going to be press avail, so we had a reporter go there and he vehemently denied everything. And then, you know, obviously 24 hours later, all the news comes out. We were scheduled to do a debate in less than a week based on polling we had done three weeks prior. So it was a mad dash to kind of figure out what we were going to do and really try to read the tea leaves about what this meant for the race and where the voters were going to go. And I'll tell you, on the call I had with our team, I said, look, with, with this sort of narrative, I think a lot of those, we all thought they were going to go to Katie Porter and they went to the guy who's been pulling in single digits. I mean, Javier Becerra got in. I Think it was like 3% when we pulled him, 5%. Then after his scandal involving his chief of staff, it went back to 4%. He just came out of nowhere.
- [13:15]
Alex Wagner
Can you talk about what kind of race is Javier Becerra run? I mean, you're talking about someone maybe elaborate a little bit if you could, on the, the, the controversy surrounding his staffers that as of right now, we have no reporting or reason to believe he was involved in. But that does not diminish the cloud of, I think, a little bit of skepticism around him.
- [13:35]
Nikki Lorenzo
Right? Yeah. So, so this all broke in November of last year. I'm trying to get my timelines straight with all the, that has happened in this race. And so it was a, you know, according to court documents, it involved Javier Becerra's longtime chief of staff, Sean McCluskey, a longtime lobbyist here, Greg Campbell, and then Gavin Newsom's former chief of staff, Dana Williamson. And according to court documents, this is this alleged conspiracy that they funneled campaign funds from a dormant campaign account, Javier Becerra's dormant campaign account, to Sean McCluskey. And in the beginning, Javier, I did the only interview with Becerra after this broke, and he said, look, I'm a victim here. He's like, this is a gut punch. I feel like I was in a marriage. And it, it, you know, it was like lying in a marriage or infidelity is how he, he articulated it. I'm a victim in this. And I said to him, you know, he's like, I knew the payments. There is some sort of work that needs to happen with dormant campaign accounts. They need to be managed. I trusted my people to manage them. Sean McCluskey was his longtime chief of staff. I mean, they go way back. And so it has been deemed, even with the last plea deal that Dana Williamson entered into two weeks ago, for what we know right now, it does look like Javier Becerra was a victim. But this question of this happened on your watch. This happened with one of your high level people. What does this say about your judgment, you know, in your ability to man the shop and kind of have an eye on your people, you know, and your judgment? And I said, what do you say to people who might question your ability to lead? And he said, you know, keep, follow the facts and trust reporters like you are going to keep asking questions. And so he's just maintained that I didn't know anything. And this has sort of been something that happened and I was duped and I was a victim.
- [15:32]
Alex Wagner
Well, it sort of sounds like, it hasn't hurt him. I mean, if anything, he's ascended in the polls right, since last year. He came from single digits. Swalwell drops out. And now it seems like it's Becerra's. He's the, you know, effectively the front runner.
- [15:45]
Nikki Lorenzo
Is that. Yeah, I like. Yeah. I mean, he's just cracking the 20s now. So the Public Policy Institute of California is out with a poll. I have it now. It's not going to drop until tonight, which we're, what is it, Wednesday night? Granted this, you know, we know polls are a snapshot in time and this was done two weeks ago. It has Becerra, you know, at the top at 23%, then followed by Steve Hilton and then Tom Stiers at 15%. So he's sort of maintaining, it's kind of like, you know, he's sort of in that spot. And I really, truly feel like people just looked at his resume. I mean, in the polling we've done with Emerson College, it has shown that he has continued to gobble up Democratic primary voters. That's, he's grown his base there. And all of the attacks, I can tell you, every a single commercial, no matter what you're watching, is a Becerra ad or a Tom Stier ad and they're talking, you know, they're attacking one another. And so it, you know, the scandal involving, you know, when his time at HHS or, you know, just the criticism, I won't call it a scandal, but the criticism of his time at HHS involving, you know, the migrant children and sort of the loss of where they were placed in, in the country during that time. There were ads, you know, involving that there were ads involving his scandal. Nothing has really seemed to affect him yet. So while we have these conversations of people that cover politics 24 7, it doesn't really seem like it's landing with the voters right now. Again, anything can change because I do know voters, Democratic voters.
- [17:14]
Alex Wagner
The primary is in a week. Nikki. I know, I love that you're like, anything could change. Like, I mean, anything in the 72
- [17:21]
Nikki Lorenzo
hours could be tomorrow. Because we like, we're looking, we're following the returns of the ballots coming in and it's showing these very slow returns of those mail in ballots and just having Congress, I'll tell you, I was at a wedding over the weekend and no. And the, the dominant conversation was, I don't know who to vote for. I'm sitting on my ballot, I don't know what to do. Is something else going to happen? I'm not really sure about this. And it's just been so interesting covering so several governor's elections in California and people Democrats kind of being like, I guess I'm gonna, I'm gonna vote for Becerra.
- [17:57]
Alex Wagner
You know, you mentioned Tom Steyer. He has spent $200 million, is that right? On his campaign?
- [18:05]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yeah, he broke a record. I think Friday was the, was the point where he, he spent over $200 million.
- [18:11]
Alex Wagner
Is that legitimate? I mean, you're talking about a poll that's coming out that shows him considerably behind Becerra. But up until now, he has had some, you know, he has had some as like the maybe third place front runner in all of this. Is it the ads that are to explain that, explain that, or do people genuinely like Tom Steyer? I mean, how would you sort of assess his campaign and his prospects?
- [18:35]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yeah, I mean, he spent all that money starting in the winter of last year, November of last year. And when we did our first poll, I believe he was at 4, he was in single digits. And he is just has been flooding the airwaves. And I mean, he is, it's Tom Steyer all the time. And so you're buying that name ID in the state of California. I mean, that's basically what he had to do. We saw it with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who got into the race late and, you know, was going to have all this, this tech wave behind him and he was, they were going to spend all this money and it was sort of the campaign that was it. Because he's in this poll that's coming out tonight. They don't even mention him. It goes Becerra, the two Republicans, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter, and then everyone else. He's not even mentioned in that conversation. I will say, you know, look, we can have a whole other discussion about polling and how accurate it is in, in this day and age and how honest voters are, because, you know, we could see something totally different on election day. I mean, our presidential elections have shown us that. But there is a good chance that we could have Javier Becerra and Tom Stier in the runoff. And honestly, that's what we're hoping for out here in California among the journalists, because let's have a real debate about the issues here, because the way the math is, look, I'm not in the prediction business and I know don't come for me in the comments, but we know what the math is here in California. Republican is not one for a really long time. So if we see Steve Hilton and Javier Becerra advance past June. We know what the race is going to look like. We know what a likely outcome is going to be.
- [20:09]
Alex Wagner
Well, you might, you might get a really interesting race down ballot in the mayor's race in Los Angeles where I must ask you about Spencer Pratt, AKA Pratt, Daddy conspiracy theorist. I would say MAGA adjacent. Even though these mayoral races are nonpartisan, he was the villain on the Hills, the reality TV show that is old enough that I remember it from my youth and I think has a website where he sells crystals, which is of course, you know, what every candidate for mayor does. The natural stop on anyone's resume is to be a crystal seller. You interviewed Spencer Pratt. I think it was in March. Let's take a listen to a clip of that interview.
- [20:53]
Nikki Lorenzo
All right, so make your pitch to them. Why should they vote for you?
- [20:56]
Dan Pfeiffer
I'm going in to stop the fraud and corruption that has overtaken the city of Los Angeles. I am going to make the safe streets clean again. You'll be able to walk your dog, you'll be able to push your stroller without fentanyl smoke blowing into your child's nose and God knows what harm's coming. I'm going to do everything that none of these candidates will do or even talking about doing, and especially what Mayor Karen Bass has not done in four years. So I mean, I could keep going, but I feel like no fentanyl smoke at the park is, is worth the vote right there.
- [21:32]
Alex Wagner
I mean it really, it really sounded like he was kind of coming up with his candidacy on the fly there. Nikki, what's your impression of him and his potential pro. I can't believe I'm saying this. The potential prospect of Spencer Pratt being the mayor of Los Angeles 2026.
- [21:49]
Nikki Lorenzo
Right. I mean, who would have seen. Girl, who would have seen this? So this was really interesting. You know, back then, Spencer, there were so many discussions about who was going to run for, for mayor of LA because Karen Bass was underwater with the voters. You know, she had a little bit of a resurgence with the ice rays in Los Angeles and sort of the, you know, pushback against the administration and what they were doing. Her image, you know, she saw a little bit of a rise, but that was short lived. And when billionaire developer Rick Caruso decided not to run, it left this opening with, okay, you know, what are we going to see here? And Spencer Pratt announced his candidacy at an event in the Palisades, the one year anniversary of the fire. And, and you know, you, I don't think that that's a incorrect take is that he was sort of just kind of coming up with it on the fly because he said, look, I didn't want to do this. I just felt like no one was going to run and I needed to step in because there's no way that I could allow Karen Bass to just waltz back in to the mayor's office. And nobody took him seriously. You know, and to be, to be honest, he started railing against politicians in California like right after the fire. I mean, he was sparring with the governor's office and he's, he's moved away from that. And all of his ire has been focused on Karen Bass and Nithya Rahman and people just sort of laughed it off. But really, in the last, I would say, month, there has been this groundswell of what seems to be support and seems to be attention. A lot of it is national. A lot of it is focused on social media. I think this is going to be a real study into our voters seeing these videos he's posting on social media. Are they seeing these interviews? Are they hearing this message? Or is. Is the traditional. You need to be up on the air, on the local stations in. He's getting a lot of earned media. He's doing a lot of interviews in Los Angeles. And I really do think, I mean, you can talk about where the bar was for that debate. Nobody really knew what to expect. But I, there were like 2015 president, you know, then candidate Trump vibes during that debate where people didn't know what to expect. And it's very zeitgeisty. I will say he is tapping into something in Los Angeles, the angry Angeleno, where they're like, okay, enough. Like, we, I, I don't know how, you know, accurate the polls are. We've done some polling down there. But I, there could be some voters who are not going to be honest with pollsters or not be honest with their friends and vote for Spencer.
- [24:24]
Alex Wagner
Can we just, just as an example of that there. He has been getting a lot of attention for those ads, and some of them are AI generated ads that his campaign says they have nothing to do with. But that sort of is. That's equally compelling because that means someone out there is taking the time with robots to make these pretty sophisticated ads. On behalf of Spencer Pratt, let us, for people who are unfamiliar with the Spencer Pratt AI Batman. Adam, let's take a look at that. Next. Mom, look. Okay. If you blinked and missed it there, there's more. There's Gavin Newsom eating cake There is Kamala Harris swigging vodka. And of course, the archenemy is Mayor Karen Bass, obviously a Democrat as the joker.
- [25:28]
Nikki Lorenzo
I think Marco Rubio is a DJ in it.
- [25:29]
Alex Wagner
Yes, Marco, I can't even address that. But, like, put on your, like, national politics hat for a minute. Like, this is an ad for a candidate with no experience. A very inarticulate message, no particular solutions, but that candidate, nonetheless, has been gaining real traction in the city of Los Angeles. And, like, I just think there's some level of alarm in all of this as it concerns the Democratic Party and potentially, you know, how Democrats need to think about both messaging and position going forward. I mean, the fact that Spencer Pratt has a legitimate shot at becoming the mayor of Los Angeles based on literally nothing but virality and. And bluster is. I mean, I'm not hitting the panic button, but my hand is, like, moving towards that. What do you think this phenomenon suggests for Democrats writ large? I mean, national Democrats are in that ad.
- [26:28]
Nikki Lorenzo
Agreed. And like you said, it's messaging. I feel like there was this element after the last election, like, where did we go wrong? And I'm thinking of the press conferences during the Biden administration when they were talking about the economy and it being transitory and just speaking in a way that just voters don't feel like it's resonating with them. Like, for instance, you know, when Karen Bass talks about homelessness in Los Angeles, she talks about it being down 18%. Well, people are still seeing tents on the streets, and they're seeing people suffering and they're seeing, you know, open drug use. And that 18% doesn't mean anything to them. There was a pivotal moment in that debate where I thought that. I said, this is what. This is why Spencer, I think, is. Is resonating with people. There was a moment where they were talking about offering housing and beds to the unhoused population. And Spencer said, I will go with Councilmember Rahman to under the Harbor Freeway tomorrow to offer one of these beds to one of these individuals, and she's going to get stabbed in the neck. It is unsafe. And so just creating that visual and that plain speak, it really. Alex, I'm telling you, it took me back. I was covering the presidential election in Texas at the time, and I went to a rally for then candidate Trump. I went to a rally for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. I went back to my newsroom, and I told my news director, I said, donald Trump's going to be the nominee. And he goes, you're fired, guy I go, yeah, I'm like, I'm telling you, there is something in the way he is speaking to these voters. They're hanging on every single word I said. It's. I've never seen anything like this in all of my years of covering politics in elections. And he's able to speak to them and resonate with them where these very, you know, seasoned politicians just aren't able to do that. So after, you know, the. The last election where Kamala Harris's message clearly did not, you know, resonate with voters or she just didn't speak to them, I really do think that needs to be, you know, something that's studied or taken to heart by national Democrats. Because Spencer. Spencer Pratt can come out of nowhere and say, look, I don't have all the answers. I mean, he's even said it. Look, I don't. But what else? I mean, it's literally, what else do you have to lose? I remember Donald Trump in a rally saying that to African American voters. What the hell do you have to lose? And that's basically what he's saying. And another line that was similar. I don't have all the answers, but I know all the smart people, and I will bring smart people around me. And there are people in that want to help rebuild L. A. So there are very. Even though, you know, his campaign is like, we're not partisan, I don't know what MAGA is. I'm not part of this. My party is Angeleno. There are some similarities there with his ability to just plainly speak to the public and kind of tap into that frustration that they're feeling.
- [29:23]
Alex Wagner
Yeah. In a Batman suit. Even if it's AI Generated.
- [29:27]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yep.
- [29:27]
Alex Wagner
Woo, baby. Okay, Nikki, listen, I think a lot of us have been so focused on. I mean, unsurprisingly, we always are. The media, New York, Washington, the Acela corridor. But what's happening in the largest state in the country is incredibly important, not just for that state, but for, obviously, the national party and the dynamics and, you know, the future political course ahead. So it's great to get firsthand perspective from someone who knows it well and is deeply embedded. And I'm grateful for your time and thoughts. Thanks for joining Runaway Country.
- [29:57]
Nikki Lorenzo
Of course. Happy to be here. Thank you.
- [29:59]
Alex Wagner
Good luck in the next week.
- [30:00]
Nikki Lorenzo
Oh, it's going to be. I won't be sleeping for quite some time, so.
- [30:04]
Alex Wagner
Or maybe after.
- [30:05]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yeah, I just feel like I haven't had a good night's sleep in two years, but that's okay.
- [30:09]
Alex Wagner
Political reporting in the age of Trump. Thanks, Nikki.
- [30:13]
Nikki Lorenzo
Thank you.
- [30:14]
Alex Wagner
After the break, we'll put this all into context with Crooked's Dan Pfeiffer. Runaway country is sponsored by Strawberry Me. Ask yourself these five questions to see if it's time to switch jobs. Am I growing or just repeating the same experience over and over? Do I feel energized by my work, or am I constantly drained and counting the hours until it's over? Am I learning skills that will still be valuable three to five years from now? Do I know what my next career move should be? Or am I just hoping something better shows up? And if I stay here for another year, will I be proud of my progress or will I regret staying comfortable? If those questions made you realize it might be time for a change, you should talk to a career coach through Strawberry Me. Their coaches work with you one on one to understand your strengths, identify your gaps, and build a clear roadmap toward a career you're actually excited about. Because the biggest risk isn't making the wrong move. It's staying stuck without a plan. Take control of your Future at Strawberry Me Alex, today and get 50% off your first coaching session. That is Strawberry Me, Alex. Runaway country is brought to you by Zebiotics Pre Alcohol let's face it, after a night with drinks, I do not bounce back the next day like I used to. That is, until I found Zebiotics Pre Alcohol Zebiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It is a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that is to blame for rough days after drinking, pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. It's summertime, which means my usual routine of not drinking during the week may be going out the window. Which means I need to start stocking up on Zebiotics Pre Alcohol. Because every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice an actual difference the next day. Even after a couple margaritas, I can confidently plan on recording a podcast, maybe even recording a YouTube rapid response video or writing a substack, maybe doing some book edits. And also, most importantly, being a good parent. From the first outdoor brunch of the year to the start of wedding season and Memorial Day, plans May's social calendar is officially nonstop. Don't let one long night keep you from the rest of your weekend. Drink pre alcohol to stay on your game and make the most of every sunny Saturday. Remember to head to ZBiotics.com Alex and use the code Alex at checkout for for 15% off. I thought about what this week would portend, might portend and what the coming week would portend. And I said, get me Dan Pfeiffer. Get me Dan Pfeiffer. I actually didn't say it like that at all, but I said maybe we could ask Dan to come back on Runaway country. And lo and behold, you are available.
- [33:09]
Dan Pfeiffer
I'm always available for Runaway Country.
- [33:10]
Alex Wagner
Oh, bless you. You are one of the very elite group of repeat guests on Runaway Country.
- [33:15]
Dan Pfeiffer
I'm sure I'll be getting my my jacket like the Five Timers Club at the at snl.
- [33:19]
Alex Wagner
You actually have to arrive in a tuxedo much like the Five Timers and then you get your jacket.
- [33:23]
Dan Pfeiffer
Cool, cool, cool.
- [33:24]
Alex Wagner
Dan, thank you for joining Runaway country again.
- [33:26]
Dan Pfeiffer
Of course.
- [33:27]
Alex Wagner
Before we get to the second biggest state in the union, I want to talk about the state of California where you if I am getting this right, you live there?
- [33:34]
Dan Pfeiffer
I do live there, yes.
- [33:36]
Alex Wagner
And perhaps you can explain to me what in the sam hell is happening over there. It is supposed to be the hotbed of progressive thought and enthusiasm and it looks a lot more right now like a hotbed of chaos and ambivalence. What's going on, Dan?
- [33:54]
Dan Pfeiffer
I think it's more ambivalence than chaos. Let's talk with the state of the race first and then we can talk big picture about why we have this level of ambivalence in this hotbed of progressivism.
- [34:02]
Alex Wagner
Well, let's first start and there are two races that I'm interested in. Primarily I'm interested in the gubernatorial race.
- [34:07]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah.
- [34:07]
Alex Wagner
Insofar as it it tells us anything about Democratic Party politics writ large come 2028. Talk to me about where you think this race is headed and what has surprised you about its ambivalent mechanics.
- [34:20]
Dan Pfeiffer
As the learned audience of Runaway country certainly knows, California has what is called a jungle primary. So the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance the general election. And for a long period of time, there was these very real fears that you'd end up with two Republicans at the top and Democrats would be locked out, which is really the only way Democrats can lose the California governor's race. The chances of a lockout are low but not gone because Javier, becerra the former state attorney general, Biden, HHS Secretary, has risen to something some nature of a potential lead here. And Tom Steyer, the billionaire who has spent, who will end up spending a quarter billion dollars on this race, it seems at least is the second leading Democrat. We have three high quality polls coming out later this week which should give us a better picture of it. But as it seems right now, the next governor of California is either going to be Tom Steyer or Javier Becerra. And people are not particularly excited about this. And it's not. Some of that's about the individual candidates. Some of it is about the fact that this race has just felt stuck the whole time. I think what has led to, to this feeling of meh about it is first everyone thought Kamala Harris was going to run, so they were excited about that. Then they thought Alex Padilla, state Senator, was going to run and then he did not. We were left with this field of people which included a bunch of people who are all qualified and have interesting resumes on their own, but have not got people excited in a way in which they are used to after 16 years of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom.
- [35:55]
Alex Wagner
Right. So there at once very specific reasons why this race at the gubernatorial level is, shall we say, confusing to those of us on the outside. But I also, I mean, I to get into the how this plays, how this dovetails potentially with, with national party politics. I mean, I worry that we see like a totally similar dynamic could unfold with a messy, complicated primary process for the presidential nomination. I wonder if you think that there's any sort of warning signs ahead about how Democrats choose their next nominee based on what we see in California, and I mean both in terms of candidate sort of qualifications and how the party itself coalesces.
- [36:43]
Dan Pfeiffer
You know, that's a, it's an interesting question. What I think makes this makes California unique and separate from the presidential is people freaked out a few months ago about the possibility of a lockout. And people really got in their head that they should vote strategically because absent that fear, which has never really been a fear we've had in California politics before at the state level. Yeah, people just vote for who they liked. And you could be passionate, but now you're like, my ballot is sitting on my kitchen table. Every single thing is filled out on other than the governor's race. And I am waiting for these three polls.
- [37:14]
Alex Wagner
You are with half of the Democrats in the state who are waiting to fill out their way.
- [37:19]
Dan Pfeiffer
Right. And normal. I would just say this is the candidate I like most and I would vote for that person. But now I am waiting to see should I, how worried should I be about a lockout? Should I vote for my third or fourth favorite candidate? Because they would help reduce the lockout. So that we have, we've injected this idea of strategic voting into it which has led to people not turning their ballots in and it's led to this thing of I can't really fall in love with a candidate because I'm going to probably have to pull the lever for some or fill in the bubble, to use a modern terminology in a male ballot state. Fill in the bubble for a candidate that I do not love because that's the best way to get it, keep a Democrat in office. And it has really sucked a lot of the passion out of the race.
- [38:01]
Alex Wagner
But don't you worry about that. I mean, I think what happened between Biden and Harris was Biden was, he's electable. Harris was like, she's all we got. So, and then in the aftermath, and we'll talk about the 2024 autopsy in a little bit. In the aftermath of Harris, the electability question has become so dominant in Democratic politics. And like, you know, there's great fear about what awaits the other side. We would be talking about a race in which Donald Trump is, is not running. So maybe the electability argument softens a little bit. But still there's deep seated terror about what another MAGA firebrand could do, someone marginally more capable or at least awake could do if they got into office in 2029. I mean, I guess, I wonder if you think any of those fears are assuaged in a, in a bigger primary for the presidential.
- [38:49]
Dan Pfeiffer
They could be that some, a couple candidates catch people's attention. Like that could happen and you could end up, you know, with what you had to had in 2008 between Obama and Hillary where just sort of there were a bunch of candidates in that field. A lot of people ran. People forget how many people ran and it really came down to a three person, but really two person race between Obama and Hillary and it captured the party's attention, captured the nation's attention. That could theoretically happen again. I agree with you that electability is going to hang over the whole thing and it's stupid because it's a little bit different than what time in California, but it's stupid because no one really knows what electability is. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. You're only electable once you win and if you lose, you're Automatically unelectable. So what does it really tell you? But that is going to hang over it. It'll particularly hang over it if Kamala Harris runs, because she actually ran and lost, which will. Which complicates things for her, obviously. Now we can have a long conversation about why that's fair or unfair for her, given the circumstances by which she became the nominee. But it's going to hang over. To hang and hung over it in 2020, for sure. I think depending on how 2026 goes in the mood of the party in the country. Elect. What? Elect. We're either going to think about electability in a bold way or think about electability in a defensive way.
- [40:07]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [40:07]
Dan Pfeiffer
In 2004, facing Bush with high approval numbers, Democrats thought about electability very defensively and thought we need to nominate the war hero veteran in John Kerry. In 2008, after Bush was in the toilet and Democrats had won these huge victories. In 2006, we were able to think about electability and offensive way. And to nominate someone like Barack Obama, had we not taken the House and Senate, I don't think there would have been an appetite to nominate the first black American named Barack Hussein Obama, with his resume to be the Democratic nominee. I think. I think we don't know. We don't know yet what electability is going to look like the voters, but it will hang over it. I also think it's very possible, given today's media environment, today's attention economy, that many of these candidates who get in early are not going to wear well over time, and people are. I think there's a very real chance. We're six months into the race, Democrats are going to look at each other and say, this is all we got. That's probably unfair, potentially, but just there is something about the process that is diminishing.
- [41:06]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [41:06]
Dan Pfeiffer
You know, all of a sudden you're the governor of California, you're the former vice president, you're a superstar at this. And then all of a sudden you're on a stage with 11 other yahoos, probably determined through random straw draws from the dnc. You're up there with some member of Congress no one's ever heard of. They're yelling in your face. You know, Kamala Harris had Tulsi Gabbard yelling in her face in 2019. 20.
- [41:28]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [41:28]
Dan Pfeiffer
Well, yeah, she didn't make it to 20. So it was 2019. And, you know, you're standing on a soapbox, you're getting, you know, you're getting harangued at a diner in New Hampshire. And so it does bring you down so well, you know, we'll see. I don't think these are perfectly analogous, but I think there's a world in which people halfway into the Democratic nomination process will look at the field similar to the way California Democrats have been looking at our field.
- [41:53]
Alex Wagner
Okay. I mean, that gets me so unexcited for the 2028 race. The, the, the, the Tulsi Gabbard of 2028 haranguing the, the one of the leading nominees. I mean, barf.
- [42:05]
Dan Pfeiffer
It's going to be messy, but it is. The stakes are high and it is like for all the marbles in its are, it will be our best chance, particularly if Kamala Harris doesn't run, although even if she does run, to have a real honest, full throated debate about what the post Obama, post Trump, post Biden, Democratic Party looks like. That was delayed in 2016 because of Hillary. It's delayed in 2020 because of Biden. It's late in 2024 because of everything. And so this is the chance that I think will be fascinating and interesting and great content for all the people. Listen to Pod Save America, Runaway Country.
- [42:39]
Alex Wagner
Please subscribe.
- [42:40]
Dan Pfeiffer
Don't throw your phone in the toilet.
- [42:42]
Alex Wagner
More of my conversation with Pod Save America's Dan Pfeiffer after a quick break. Runaway country with Alex Wagner is brought to you by Wild Alaskan Company. I do not like mystery seafood, low quality stuff that's clearly been frozen and thawed. I want better options when I'm cooking at home. Wild Alaskan Co. They offer the best way to get wild caught. High quality seafood delivered to your door on your schedule. Each Wild Alaskan box comes with individually portioned filets, vacuum sealed, easy to prep and great for any meal no matter how quick or elevated. All the fish is quick frozen fresh from the Alaskan waters, which helps lock in its freshness, texture, flavor and key nutrients like omega 3s. It is fish you can trust with no GMOs, antibiotics or other additives. Every order supports sustainable harvesting practices and Alaskan fishermen whose history is tied to the region and practice. I just had some cod. I think it was wild cod last night in a delicious Portuguese fish curry boom. I'm not even kidding. It was so good. It was tasty and I felt delicious about eating it. Like personally morally delicious. Wild Alaskan company is so confident that their fish is the best that they offer 100% satisfaction and money back guarantee. So you can try your first box risk. Go to wildalaskan.com Alex for $35 off your first order of premium wild caught seafood. That's wildalaskan.com A L E X for $35 off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. Runaway country is brought to you by Blissy. I had no idea cotton and satin were causing frizz and sleep creases until I switched to Blissey. It gives you healthier skin in weeks. It reduces fine lines, wrinkles and sleep creases and it helps prevent breakouts. Better hair in days reduces frizz breakage and preserves styles and color. And we know we need color preservation around these gray parts. Better than satin. It's better than satin. Silk is a natural cooling material and it's gentler on your skin and hair. It's naturally breathable, hydrating and hypoallergenic. This stuff has been dermatologist tested and recommended. It is fully machine washable. You can get matching sleep masks and bonnets and crease preventing scrunchies like you look so cute and all that. I will say I love my Blissey pillowcase. I do feel like I'm doing this old face a favor when I sleep on one. Because you're a listener, Blissey is offering 60 nights risk free plus an additional 30% off when you shop@blissy.com Alex that is B L I S S-Y.com Alex and use code ALEX to get an additional 30% off your skin and hair. Will thank you. I think that you're so right that the outcome of the 2026 midterms is going to really dictate how ambitious people are with their nominees. But I do wonder the degree to which, I mean back to your state for a second. The degree to which there are lessons that should be and have been learned in California. And specifically, let's just talk about the outgoing governor because I wonder a how much do you think Newsom sort of set a playbook for the state and like what we as the other 49 residents in the other 49 states should expect? I mean, I can imagine Tom Steyer punching Trump in the nose. I have a harder time imagining Javier Becerra punching Trump in the nose just because he constitutionally is more of a. I don't know, he's a more moderate person in personality.
- [46:11]
Dan Pfeiffer
Temperamentally.
- [46:12]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, exactly. And also how much has Newsom written a script for other Democrats in terms of pugilism and joyful warrior and meme bot?
- [46:21]
Dan Pfeiffer
Meme bot Governor Meme bot. I think, I think you know, Becerra, I agree, like you can see Tom Steyer, like Newsom doing a lot of like very aggressive press, you know, press aggressive social media stuff to position himself as the anti Trump. It just Becerra has. Is less aggressive communications wise, I do think. But as Attorney General, he did sue the pants off of Donald Trump more than anyone else and was pretty successful about that. So policy wise, I think I don't have any reason to suspect. I don't think it's fair to say and I think there are many, many, many fair critiques of this there. I don't think one of them to say is that he would be more accommodationist towards Trump. I just think he might be less showy in that than Steyer would be. You know, I think Newsom sort of a one of one for Democrats. I don't, you know, there was a brief period of time when his tweets took off or other people started doing it where it looked terrible and didn't really work. And even he has sort of slowed down on that in the last year. He has seemed, I think.
- [47:21]
Alex Wagner
Well, the books come out, Dan.
- [47:23]
Dan Pfeiffer
The books come out, the books come out. But even long before in 2025, I think David Axelrod said this when I had him on Pate America weeks ago, that Gavin Newsom won the 2025 part of the primary.
- [47:35]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [47:36]
Dan Pfeiffer
And it's unclear who will win 2026. We got a half year to go. You know, I think that there people want a fighter and people will. Democratic candidates will embody that in ways that are different than the way Newsom did it. But you can't not be that like, I think that's table stakes in this primary.
- [47:57]
Alex Wagner
That's baked in. Yeah, I. It's interesting because there are two races that make you question like whether up is down and down is up as a Democrat. And the gubernatorial race has been unnerving, I think, to watch. Right. Even if the reasons make total sense. The mayoral race is what's the goat rodeo comes to mind. Like unmitigated potential disaster comes to mind. And I think it's worth unpacking a little bit of the dynamics there because weirdly, on a policy level, LA seems to be more of a cautionary tale the mayoral race than even the governor's race. Right. This is where you're seeing Democrats. I mean, well, you're seeing a wholesale kind of rethinking of what Democrats positions should be on certain issues. And I want to talk to you a little bit about how and why the fuck a reality TV star from the hills named Spencer Pratt is doing so much better than anyone expected. Do you have a theory of the case, Dan?
- [48:54]
Dan Pfeiffer
I do have a theory of the case. I think politics is a war for attention. He understands that and is very good at it the way he is. Because reality TV stars are. Our current president is a rally TV star. Rally TV stars have a natural advantage in this media environment where it is all on all the time. And they understand the value of how to get attention because their livelihood depends on grabbing onto the public attention, holding onto it for as long as possible. And Spencer Pratt, the Hills came on a very, very long time ago. He has remained in some measure of fame and quasi sea level relevance for decades now. And that takes some kind of skill. So that's part one of why he is.
- [49:39]
Alex Wagner
Shamelessness is another word for it.
- [49:40]
Dan Pfeiffer
But anyway, yeah, you absolutely need shamelessness to survive in this media environment in a certain way. The second thing is he is an outsider and people want outsiders. You see that in Democratic primaries. You see that in Maine, we might be seeing it in a state like Michigan, we are, we saw it with. And that's not a particularly new phenomenon. That's why Barack Obama won. It's why Donald Trump won.
- [50:05]
Alex Wagner
Wait, wait, can I interrupt you though? Because like in Ohio, Sherrod Brown could win. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper could win and Georgia, John Austin.
- [50:11]
Dan Pfeiffer
But they're also, they're also running against. Well, I'd say a couple things to that. One, being an outsider does not mean you automatically are going to win.
- [50:18]
Alex Wagner
Right.
- [50:19]
Dan Pfeiffer
It is a. In Ohio and North Carolina, it's a race between two insiders.
- [50:24]
Alex Wagner
Okay.
- [50:25]
Dan Pfeiffer
And Ossoff is interesting because you can be in the Senate and code as an outsider.
- [50:32]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [50:33]
Dan Pfeiffer
And being young in the Democratic Party really coach you as an outsider. And he's. Obama was, he was in the Senate when he ran and he was also seen as an outsider. Bernie Sanders in the Senate since God was a boy. And he's an outsider, so. Or a girl, I guess, for a very long time.
- [50:49]
Alex Wagner
Or no gender or none.
- [50:51]
Dan Pfeiffer
None, depending on who you ask.
- [50:52]
Alex Wagner
Open that door.
- [50:53]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, but he's been in the Senate for a very long time and he's still an outsider. And there is a lane, particularly in a multi candidate race for an outsider. And then LA has unique circumstances because of the way the city's run, specifically by Karen Bass, specifically because of the fires and specifically just because the city's impossible to run because of the way it works. What the mayor has control over, the Board of Supervisors has control over what the county has Control over. And so you have three main candidates in that race and if one of them is an outsider, that is a very real lane that can be filled. And so in an insider versus an outsider, maybe the insider can win, but an outsider getting attention in a multi candidate race with insiders is not shocking.
- [51:35]
Alex Wagner
You don't think it has anything to do with him? And I'm just playing. I don't even want to say devil's advocate just for people who haven't been following this race. Pratt has been going after Bass for her management, of course, of the aftermath of the fight. He's been living in, I think a show trailer as an example of how uprooted.
- [51:53]
Dan Pfeiffer
But also the Bel Air Hotel, right?
- [51:55]
Alex Wagner
Yes, also. I mean, you know, who among us doesn't stay at the Bel Air Hotel when our house is in need of renovations? But. But it has also been going after the city's unhoused homeless population right there. Real legitimate issues and is a little, you know, he's very MAGA light in his kind of take no prisoners. I'm gonna say the thing that everybody's thinking that nobody wants to say out in our inclusive political landscape. And I wonder if you think Democrats. This is the state of fucking California and Los Angeles. Is there a lesson there for Democrats needing to be more vicious, less. I mean, I don't know what the right word is to give up on some of the more progressive, at least language, if not position on a number of social or economic issues. Do you see anything in that? Any cautionary.
- [52:45]
Dan Pfeiffer
I think we got to see the results in the race. Like. Like Republicans get votes in the California mayoral race. Rick Caruso did quite well before. Before not doing so. Quite doing quite well. So it's not surprising that he is getting votes. I wouldn't. I really would not take that to me now, if he wins, I think that's something else. Or if he makes the runoff and then you end up with a very, very close race like Karen Bass or Nithya Rahman or whoever else wins, then that's something else. Let's just. Like right now he's getting a swath of voters in a. In a candidate race there. I think there are things to be said about how you get attention, how you grab attention, how you consolidate a certain segment of the electorate. But I would put a pause on the lessons from the guys from the Hill piece just yet.
- [53:29]
Alex Wagner
Okay. When you say it like that, I'm sorry I even asked the question, but
- [53:32]
Dan Pfeiffer
I kinda didn't mean to be so dismissive.
- [53:35]
Alex Wagner
I mean, it's happening, people. What's happening is that Spencer Pratt is almost neck and neck with Karen Bass. That's why I'm asking for those of you who are not in California and not being that close attention to it, your opinion, your position on this seems to be a lot like mine, which is. I think it's honestly, if Democrats speak with authority and conviction and passion about basically anything, they could stand a very good chance of getting the nomination because it just feels like the party's wide open. And what voters want is authenticity. And they want fight and they want spirit, and they want, you know, people who are gonna deliver on what they say, regardless of what those things are. I mean, people always ask me, can Democrats do Democrats need to stake out a harder line on immigration or, you know, economic inequality? Although I think the economic inequality piece is probably pretty essential for any platform. But I do think it almost is. Like, it could be anything. You could do anything. You could. You just have to have and believe in a set of proposals and sell them like you got nothing left to lose. And I honestly think that that's going to be. The nominee is the person who best does that, to say nothing of any specific position.
- [54:46]
Dan Pfeiffer
I agree with that with one addendum, which is I think that also people hate politicians, and they really hate Democratic politicians. So you need to find ways that make you seem not like a typical politician. That can be with heterodox views on some issues. It can be by running against the party establishment himself. It could be, as some Senate Democratic candidates have done, deciding to say they're not going to vote for Chuck Schumer. It could be by not taking corporate and PAC money. It could be by embracing a very, very aggressive campaign finance proposal. That is hard on our side. It can be criticizing Democrats for being corrupt when they're corrupt. I just think it's not simply you just have to sing from the hymnal with the most passion, authenticity. It's that you have to find a way to separate yourselves from the choir in a way. See what I tied that in together.
- [55:39]
Alex Wagner
You really. You really used a lot of good church metaphors.
- [55:42]
Dan Pfeiffer
It doesn't really. It doesn't. Honestly, if it's one of those things where, if you look carefully, it doesn't really withstand scrutiny. But on the surface, there was a lot of church metaphors in there.
- [55:51]
Alex Wagner
Dan. If you were in the. If you were in the NFL, Dan, we know who would be spiking the football in the end zone, and his last name and rhymes with sniper actually
- [55:59]
Dan Pfeiffer
would more likely would be be spiking on the one yard line. I think I did just there so
- [56:03]
Alex Wagner
more my conversation with Dan in just a moment. But first, hey, if you haven't heard yet, tickets for CrookedCon 2026 are on sale now. Expect potential presidential candidates, campaign strategists, pollsters, organizers, journalists, creators, and crooked podcast hosts like me. Crooked Con comes just days after the midterms. We will have a lot to learn and a lot to do to get ready for the next it's all going to kick off on Thursday, November 5th with a pod Save America live show. Then on the Evening of Friday, November 6, you can catch strict scrutiny live or love it or leave it live. And on Saturday, November 7, join us for a full day of Crooked Con panels and meetups. Head to crookedcon.com to get tickets and more details, including how to become a friends of the POD for a special discount. I cannot wait to see you there. Runaway country is brought to you by Honey Love. I am a person that loves trying out new things. I'm not gonna lie to you, but I genuinely am hooked. Pun intended on the Honey Love bras. You can wear em around all day and you can exercise in them because like, who really wants to be stepping in and out of bras all day? Aren't we too busy for that? Sports bras, I find, are often tight and uncomfortable and feel like a small punishment. The straps can dig into your shoulders or they roll up, or they just give you unsightly T shirt lines or uniboob. Oh, the honeylove Crossflex Activity Bra. That's the one that I have. It is different from almost any other sports bra I've tried. It feels like a sports bra, but it's designed for all day wear. It's not suffocating, it's not stiff. It has the kind of hook and eyebag so you don't have to pull it over your head, which I absolutely hate. If you're the kind of person that reaches for a sports bra on a daily basis because of the support and coverage, but you want something that's designed for all day wear. The Crossflex Activity Bra is the solution you have been searching for. It is perfect support for light activities like hot girl walks or yoga. Treat yourself to the most advanced bras and shapewear on the market. Use our exclusive link to save 20% off honeylove@honeylove.com Alex that is honeylove.com Alex after you check out, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support Runaway country and tell them that we sent you experience the new standard in comfort and support with Honey love. You know, this all brings to mind how Democrats move forward and the ways in which they are having honest conversations with themselves and doing, I don't know, systematic and thorough assessments of what went wrong. I do because Pod Save America has been such an engine in all of this. Have to ask you about I use the word phrase goat rodeo. I don't like using the word fuck show. I've been told I curse too much on this show and I have to agree with everybody who sent in their criticisms. So I'll use the word clusterfuck. I don't know the DNC autopsy for people who have not had the bandwidth to follow this and I understand why the DNC chair Ken Martin really went back and forth over releasing the autopsy of the 2024 race and then he made it public while also simultaneous simultaneously essentially disowning it. What?
- [59:17]
Nikki Lorenzo
What?
- [59:17]
Alex Wagner
Dan? It made no mention of Joe Biden's age, the sort of compromises in and around the Biden White House to get him to run again, no mention of Gaza and how it very much was a fracture point in the Democratic coalition. What was the point of all this?
- [59:35]
Dan Pfeiffer
Dan There was no point is the problem. So the way to look at this is not to think about the results of the autopsy. It's the thing about the process that brought us the autopsy, which is Ken Martin ran promising to release the autopsy, was quite critical of the post 2016 DNC for not releasing the autopsy, something they should have done but did not want to do because it would have been very critical of Hillary Clinton. And then hired, didn't even hire asked a political crony of his named Paul Rivera to do the autopsy. Paul Evera didn't do the autopsy. He basically talked to some people, never really wrote anything down. And then I guess Ken Martin didn't really or no one was writing heard over the process. So when they got it after many, many months they looked at it and said this can't be released because it's incomplete. Paul Rivera somehow refused to give them any of the underlying information like interview transcripts and data he used to like that's quite questionable. But instead of saying the autopsy is not finished, we need more time and then hiring someone else to finish it, Ken Martin just decided to say that it was done. It was helpful because they kept talking about, as he did in his interview with Jon Favreau, about how it informed the Democrats playbook, but didn't want to release it, because it would divide the party. I mean that.
- [60:59]
Alex Wagner
It would divide the party between people. Sorry, I don't mean to exhaust you on this. It would divide the party between people who wanted Ken Martin to stay in his position and people who were like, get the fuck out of Ken Martin.
- [61:08]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. It's just the whole thing was so stupid. It was poorly managed, it was dishonest, it broke trust of the dnc. It just, it just, it's a. If any. If you had hired anyone to do a project, like the Democratic members of the DNC hired Ken Martin to do this project, you would fire them immediately because it's just a just massive incompetence followed by lying to cover up the incompetence.
- [61:29]
Alex Wagner
Sort of sounds like the repainting of the reflecting pool.
- [61:32]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, it would fit in quite well. Look, it's one of those things where I have somehow like positive America has become very much associated with this for reasons that I don't particularly like it really. Well, I mean, here the story, like when Ken Martin came on the show and said he would, when he was running, said he would do the autopsy, we said that is great. When he said he wasn't going to release the autopsy, we said that is bad. You should release it also.
- [61:55]
Alex Wagner
Why?
- [61:56]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, like, yeah, like that was. I think it's a fair point. And then Ken Martin, he got really mad at Jon Favreau for a text that Ben Rhodes, a tweet Ben Rhodes sent came up to him and started, I don't want to use the term yelling because I wasn't there, but expressed his displeasure. John said, come on the show. He came on the show, couldn't answer the questions, so the show he came on to answer and now here we are. And I did, when the autopsy came out, did publicly call on Ken Martin resign, which has made me very popular with a lot of people. This is just. Look, here's the thing. Is this the biggest thing in the entire world?
- [62:33]
Alex Wagner
No, honestly, we shouldn't even mention the autopsy itself. What it does for people who are never gonna read the autopsy and just have a glancing interaction with this is like, oh, it gives rise to the worst fears I think progressives have about the Democrats have about the Democratic Party, which is, is it's a shit show. Like there's been paper over the windows. Cuz the Trump show has been so, you know, eye catching, shall we say. Nobody's been paying attention. The captain's wheel is spinning, nobody has their hands on it and it's a mess. And this is like one of the most basic things you do.
- [63:05]
Nikki Lorenzo
We lost.
- [63:06]
Alex Wagner
We got our butts handed to us in November. What did we do wrong? Let's figure it out. They can't execute on. I mean, hindsight, Dan, is supposed to be the thing that is 2020. Right. Which, if you can't get the hindsight part right, what does that mean about moving forward? And I think it really makes people scared about what, you know, the party institutions, the leadership and like, what this portends for what is going to inevitably be a loud and fractious and complicated primary process, especially actually if Democrats are in control of Congress, because then they'll have real power.
- [63:38]
Dan Pfeiffer
This is the important point. So people tend to think out there, the DNC is this incredibly important organization where like all the leaders come together and make decisions on messaging and recruit candidates. They don't do any of that. The DNC plays a very, very limited role in the midterms, but they play a role. They raise money and they give that money to people. Right?
- [63:56]
Alex Wagner
Yes.
- [63:56]
Dan Pfeiffer
Not campaigns per se, but state parties. And that can be very valuable in various state races. But where the DNC really matters is in the presidential election. And what they do is they run the primary. So the DNC is going to decide what order the states come in. If states disagree with that and try to jump the calendar, the DNC decides how we allocate delegates from those states. They make the rules about whether we have superdelegates or not, how much those super delegate votes count. They sponsor the debates. They make the rules for the debate. They'll be the ones who, if we have 20 candidates, which you probably will, they'll be the ones who decide which candidates are on the big stage, which candidates on the small stage, how it's going to be organized, what order people are going to be in the podium. They're going to make the. At some point, there'll be a criteria to get on the debate stage. How much money did you raise? What's your poll numbers? All of that. They'll make those decisions. And if people can't trust the dnc, what is going to happen is they're going to think the process is rigged against their candidate. And in the way that Ken Martin has handled this, he has made it very hard for people to trust the dnc. That, to me, is the biggest issue here. The DNC will play zero role in what a Democratic House and Senate do. They. The House and Senate people will not. They will not even take Ken Martin's calls because it just is not even like if he has an idea on what policies they should pass. They don't care. That's not his job. His job is to raise money and run the Democratic primary process. And we're currently $4 million in debt, which is not awesome. And we have this LTOS issue. So that's sort of where we are. It's not the end of the world, but it's not great. And it just, it is, as you say, it adds just more logs on the fire of people who don't trust Democrats, who don't trust the party and think it's not up to the task before us.
- [65:41]
Alex Wagner
This is all getting very depressing. Let's start talking about Republicans.
- [65:44]
Dan Pfeiffer
Okay, perfect. Perfect.
- [65:46]
Alex Wagner
I put this at the end. It's not dessert, but it is delicious in the way that dessert often is.
- [65:53]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yes. Okay.
- [65:54]
Alex Wagner
So I know you have a message box post about this and I want. It's fresh news. Last night, John Cornyn, the incumbent four term senator, was defeated by Ken Paxton, I think got his wig blown off is the more official political term. Huge. Just a catastrophic loss for Cornyn. So much so that you almost feel bad for him. And I highlight the word almost. Almost. Mark McKinnon, who I used to work with on a program called the Circus, who is a reliable Texas analyst when it comes to politics in the Lone Star State call it said that James Talarico, the Democrat that Ken Paxton will now run against in the general, could be the next Moses. And by Moses, he means a Democrat who could finally turn Texas blue. Now, we've all been there before.
- [66:45]
Dan Pfeiffer
Would he be partying the Red Sea in there? Is that the first thing?
- [66:48]
Alex Wagner
Very good. It's your. It's like Bible day in the Pfeiffer House. Hymnals, choirs.
- [66:55]
Dan Pfeiffer
It's undeserved. I will say that, yes. Despite my Jesuit education.
- [66:59]
Alex Wagner
Listen, because of. What do you think? Is this over? I mean. Okay, let me just put it more succinctly. How much should Democrats calibrate their optimism going forward in this Texas race?
- [67:12]
Dan Pfeiffer
I think that Democrats have their best shot to win Texas in a generation. Now, the closest we've come in a generation is 2.6 points in 2018. But let's just. I think there's a couple ways to look at this, right? So let's use 2018 as our benchmark. So that was the year that Beto o' Rourke ran against Ted Cruz, ran this incredible race, raised millions of dollars, kind of became a cultural phenomenon in the moment when he did, you know, Beyonce is wearing the Beto hat or like it Was a. It was a very big deal. But Beto fell short. Outperformed partisanship, outperformed Democrats, but fell short.
- [67:45]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yep.
- [67:46]
Dan Pfeiffer
So Ted Cruz in September of 2018, so a month and a half before the election, had a 9. He was 9 points above water's approval. So he was 9 points more favorable than unfavorable. Ken Paxton has never been above water. He is five points in the last poll. But he is generally always very unpopular. So this is a hard thing to say and hard to believe, but Ken Paxton is less likable and less popular than Ted Cruz. That is a low bar, the Mendoza line of likability. Okay. And so that's 1, 2. The political environment in 2026, as we sit here today, and it could change, but as we sit here today is better than it was in 2018. TRUMP For Democrats, for Democrats, Trump was basically even in his approval rating in Texas in 2018. He's underwater by some number of points. And perhaps the biggest thing is in 2024, when Trump won Texas by about 14 points. He won Texas Latinos by 10 points. Okay. We don't have a lot of Texas specific Latino polling with sufficient sample size, but we do know that Texas, that Trump is 50 points underwater. National age. According to the New York Times poll on the generic ballot, Latinos are. Nationally, Latinos are favoring Democrats by 30 points. And we know that in actual voting in Texas, in that special states, in a special election a couple months ago, that the Latino vote shifted 34 points towards killer Ribnet, the Democrat. Unbelievable. These are all conditions that would. And then you get into Ken Paxton, who has been indicted, was impeached, is an adulterer. There is a bribes, adultery, every single thing. Securities fraud accusations. And he was impeached by the Republican House in Texas.
- [69:41]
Nikki Lorenzo
Yes.
- [69:42]
Dan Pfeiffer
Not exactly a bunch of woke libs. And so he is a very vulnerable candidate. And so I expect that, that this is an environment where James Talarico will do better than Beto or work. And now will that be enough to cross the finish line? And actually, those last 2.6 points are. Those are. That's a long last mile. But I think he has a very real shot. He's going to be under withering assault, and the question is, can he navigate it? But he's very well funded to raise $27 million last quarter. And so I think he's got a very real shot.
- [70:16]
Alex Wagner
Do you worry about his inroads? I mean, Jasmine Crockett, that primary was contentious and it exposed some real rifts inside the Democratic Party. Jasmine Crockett was, you know, in analysis that I read this morning, you know, there's talk about Talarico support among the black community in Texas. The degree to which they're pretty apathetic about Talarico. Do you think that matters? I mean, I would assume it does in a race that could be one on the margins. And how worried should the Talarico camp be?
- [70:48]
Dan Pfeiffer
I think look, to win, they have to do everything perfect. They have to persuade a significant number of people who voted for John Cornyn last night, and they're going to have to absolutely blow the doors off in terms of turnout among the Democratic base. And that is going to include the black voters that Jasmine Crockett was talking about and had so much success with. And so, yeah, they have to be watching that very carefully. I have not seen like evidence that that is a problem, but you don't really need evidence problem. You just have to do everything you can to avoid it being a problem. And so, yeah, we should be absolutely be very concerned about that. But. But it's too early to see polling that says that there is diminished turnout among black voters or presidential year black voters or first time black voters, something like that. It's too early to know that, but it's something the campaign has to work very hard to juice that level of turnout.
- [71:36]
Alex Wagner
The person that is going to feel the effects of this potentially, well, other than John Cornyn, I kind of wonder whether you think Trump has screwed the party over more by getting behind Paxton or himself behind in forsaking John Cornyn. Because John Cornyn still has seven months, seven months of a Senate term to finish out. He is not, you know, he is not a bleeding heart centrist the way that perhaps maybe Bill Cassidy is. I don't even want to say that because Bill Cassidy is definitely a Republican. But he may not flip on as many things as, for example, Bill Cassidy might. But he definitely isn't gonna be boosting Trump on some of his more controversial proposals like the slush fund and the ballroom and all the rest and even maybe Iran. So it's a problem. Trump truth socialed this morning in a bid at, I don't know, diplomacy. John, as in Cornyn will remain my friend for a long time to come as we both watch Ken become a fantastic common sense senator, one who is respected by all. I don't even. Is that intended on being an olive branch to John Cornyn? Because if it was me, it would piss me off even more.
- [72:45]
Dan Pfeiffer
I think it's an olive branch to the rest of The Republican Senate, who right after this endorsement basically torpedoed his reconciliation bill over both his ballroom and his slush fund. And so I think Trump has a minor Republican Senate problem right now, both in terms of just angering everyone because the Paxton endorsement and then with Cassidy and Tillis hanging around. So the question is, will Cornyn be like Cassidy and Tillis and be a thorn in Trump's side? I am skeptical. I could not hold John Cornyn in lower regard in terms of his political courage. He really is just a party automaton and he's in leadership. And so that makes it harder to sink bills when you're the person responsible for counting the votes on the bills. So I don't know, but, you know, there could be on some. Some nominations or a couple things, a couple. One or two places where the slush
- [73:40]
Alex Wagner
fund is not a Democratic or Republican issue. That's just pure corruption.
- [73:44]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. Like, I think that. I think the Republican. In order to pass that bill, they're going to have to do something on the slush fund. It'll be something between what the slush fund currently is and what it should be, which is gone. But I think that, that in situations like that, Cornyn will matter. But it's like the question is, will Cornyn flip his vote on the War Powers Resolution like Cassidy did? I'll believe that when I see it.
- [74:05]
Alex Wagner
So it sounds like you think Trump is fucking the party over more than himself. Like, that his agenda is not necessarily imperiled by losing Cornyn as an ally, but he's actually maybe measurably fucked the party over by making Senate, the Texas Senate race, up for grabs at best.
- [74:22]
Dan Pfeiffer
So he's fucking the party over in two ways. One, if James Taylor Cooper becomes the 51st senator, he's fucked the party and himself.
- [74:29]
Nikki Lorenzo
Right.
- [74:30]
Dan Pfeiffer
But the party is now going to have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to defend that seat. Something they would not. That. That could be money. That could be in Alaska, it could be in Michigan, a state, you know, Georgia. So, you know, it's going to prevent them from going on offense in one or two places where they think they might have a shot to expand the map, enforce Democrats play defense. And they will not be able to do it, and it hurts. But Ken Paxton is, for some, for an absolute criminal known to exchange access for financial incentives. Paxton's a pretty bad fundraiser. He did not raise a ton of money in his race. He doesn't have connections to the larger Republican billionaire class who funded John Cornyn. Maybe they will come in and help Paxton for the sake of the party. I don't know, but the party's going to have to spend a quarter billion dollars to defend Ken Paxton. That they would. We probably would not have had to spend for John Cornyn.
- [75:20]
Alex Wagner
And John Cornyn, I think I might get this number wrong. But it was a prolific fundraiser, not just for himself, but for other Republican candidates.
- [75:27]
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, he was the NRSC chair back in the day.
- [75:28]
Alex Wagner
$400 million he raised. I mean, a rainmaker. And now that rain cloud has passed and the party could be coming in for a dry spell in the West Texas heat. You do biblical metaphors? I do meteorological ones.
- [75:43]
Dan Pfeiffer
I'm basically podcasting with Taylor Sheridan right now.
- [75:46]
Alex Wagner
In fact, we look a lot alike and both of us have written really successful scripted dramas. So, you know, fantastic for both of us. Daniel Pfeiffer, known to the world as Dan, I love hearing your incisive analysis about where things are at. And I really applaud your dismissiveness on some of the more Looney Tune theories that I threw out there today.
- [76:09]
Dan Pfeiffer
I was not dismissive in any way.
- [76:10]
Alex Wagner
She thought, well, you know what I mean. Like, you're just gently dismissed. It just tells like it is. Gentle. You tell it like it is, man. You're not sugarcoating it. You're just fucking giving us the real dope. So thank you for coming back to Runaway Country. The country's still on a runaway course. We'll see where it lands. The great Dan Pfeiffer. Don't forget to check out Dan's indispensable substack, the Message Box, which is now its own political juggernaut. And always listen to Dan on Runaway country and pod Save America.
- [76:38]
Dan Pfeiffer
Alex, thanks for having me.
- [76:40]
Alex Wagner
Thanks for coming on. That is our show for this week. Don't forget to check out the show and our rapid response videos on our YouTube channel, Runaway country with Alex Wagner. And if you are not sick of me yet, please take a look at my substack, how the hell with Alex Wagner. Last but certainly not least, if you have been impacted directly by the Trump administration or its policies, please do send us an email or a one minute voice note@runawaycountrycrooked.com and we may be in touch to feature your story. A huge thank you to everyone who has written in already. Runaway country is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Ilona Minkowski, Emma Ilech, Frank Haley Jones and Anisha Banerjee with help from Eric Schutt, Kenny Moffat and Charlotte Landis. Production support from Ben Hethcoat, Katie Long, Adrian Hill and Matt De Groat. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America.
- [77:44]
Nikki Lorenzo
Sam.