Runaway Country with Alex Wagner

Episode 4: How Democrats Can Win Latinos Back

Crooked Media | June 23, 2024

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Jon Favreau (filling in for or alongside Alex Wagner), delves deeply into the complicated and evolving relationship between Latino voters and the Democratic Party—particularly in the lead-up to the 2024 election. Jon is joined by experts and organizers including Leo Murrieta (Make the Road Nevada), Carlos Odio, and Stephanie Valencia (Equis Research and Latino Media Network), who bring data, on-the-ground experience, and insight into Latino political engagement. Together, they explore the factors driving Latino voter opinions, the myths and realities around Latino political identity, and offer practical advice for those hoping to engage and persuade this essential electorate.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Latino Voters: Not a Monolith, But a Potent Collective

• Shared Identity Amid Diversity:
  While the Latino electorate is incredibly diverse in country of origin, generation, geography, and language, a strong sense of "Latinidad" and common values—like family, faith, and belief in the American Dream—help unify the group (08:32-11:18).

  • Stephanie Valencia: "We are the X factor in politics and society…we have more in common than we do that makes us different."
  • Carlos Odio: “Latinos are not a monolith, but are still a group…when you walk into the American high school cafeteria, you look for people like you.”

• How Identity Operates Politically:
  Identity serves as both a shield (“who is on my side?”) and a prism for interpreting parties’ actions, though its salience can fluctuate, especially against a backdrop of rising cost of living and economic pressures.

Breaking Down Latino Political Views: Complexity Beyond Clichés

• Country of Origin and Context Matter:
  Political views vary widely based on country of origin, region, level of assimilation, generation, and whether someone is urban or rural (12:06).

• Generational Shifts—More About "Fairness" than Purely Left or Right:
  Later-generation Latinos aren’t necessarily more conservative on immigration, but express more nuanced views focused on fairness and order (14:03-16:13).

• Highly Persuadable, Not Ideologically Fixed:
  Many Latino voters are low-propensity voters—less loyal to any party, highly open to being persuaded based on which party addresses their needs.

The Myth of a Latino Realignment

• 2020 and 2022 Data:
  There was some shift toward Trump in 2020 (from about 3 in 10 to 4 in 10 Latinos voting Republican), but 2022 showed stability, not a continued rightward slide. Florida is a true outlier—Democratic neglect and investment gaps allowed for a pronounced GOP surge (16:45-18:47).

  • Carlos Odio: “Conditions exist for realignment, but conditions do not determine outcomes.”

• Why Didn’t Republicans Do Even Better in 2022?
  Republicans failed to close the "identity" gap or to show Latino voters that they are tangibly better for their families, despite economic discontent (20:05-22:50).

  • Stephanie Valencia: “Republicans still have not convinced Latinos that they are actually better for them... Is Donald Trump the guy to deliver that message for them? That is the biggest question.”

Lessons from Florida and the “Identity Force Field”

• The "Identity Force Field":
  For many Latinos, identity has historically been a social constraint against voting GOP, but that weakened in recent years, especially in places like Florida with a strong right-wing media presence and Democratic disengagement (23:12-27:09).

  • Carlos Odio: “The identity constraints are common across geography…the question is which one’s better for Latinos…that force field kind of flickered.”

• Florida’s Unique Case:
  The confluence of new arrivals, strong conservative media, and lack of Democratic competition led to dramatic and sustained GOP gains (27:18-29:24). Yet, with an abortion ballot initiative and new immigrant communities, opportunities remain for Democrats to re-engage.

Latino Priorities: Cost of Living & Economic Insecurity

• Top Issues Match Those of Broader Electorate:
  Latino voters are primarily concerned about inflation, jobs, housing, healthcare, and overall economic insecurity (29:24-30:38).

  • Voter quote (29:44): “I got a new job and I’m making the most money I’ve ever had, but I feel worse than when I was making 16 an hour.”

• Feelings Outweigh Facts:
  Policy accomplishments mean little if voters can’t feel the impact. Democrats need to bridge the “last mile” between policy and everyday lives (30:38-32:53).

  • Stephanie Valencia: “We need to figure out how to communicate feelings over facts.”

• Advice for Democrats:
  Instead of dismissing voter frustrations as misinformed, embrace them, and show how Democrats are offering specific, relatable solutions (32:53-34:16).

Immigration: A Divided but Evolving Issue

• Immigration’s Role Has Changed:
  Used to clearly differentiate parties, but years of inaction and mixed messaging have eroded Democrats’ historical advantage (36:38-38:39).

  • Carlos Odio: “Immigration was never the number one issue…but it always helped differentiate between the parties.”

• Latinos Want Order and Compassion:
  Most want secure borders and humane treatment for those already here—a “both/and” mindset.

• Biden’s Recent Actions:
  Tougher border measures are popular with many Latinos, but there’s strong appetite for real solutions for those long-settled in the U.S (42:09-42:51).

• Republican Overreach Risks:
  Trump’s mass deportation proposals, if widely known, could backfire with many Latinos (43:22-44:52).

  • Carlos Odio: “[Trump’s] people want to talk about mass deportation…Trump is majorly overreaching.”

Battling Disillusionment and Distrust

• Frustration with Both Choices:
  Many Latinos feel stuck with two bad presidential options, echoing distrust in the larger system (46:31-47:56).

  • Voter quote (46:54): “Four years ago I was very confident I didn’t want to see Trump in office again…Now…the past four years have been pretty underwhelming.”

• Persuasion, Not Just Mobilization:
  Democrats must persuade voters by addressing their insecurity and showing they are “on their side”—not just rely on anti-Trump messaging.

Reaching Latino Voters: Media and Messaging

• Trusted Messengers & Channels:
  Latinos over-consume Spanish-language radio (especially Mexican Regional formats), Univision, Telemundo, YouTube, and WhatsApp (51:50-55:12).

  • Stephanie Valencia: “The number one music format in which to reach swing voters…is Mexican regional music.”
  • “If you’re a Latino that’s not on WhatsApp, that’s the minority.”

• Right-Wing Dominance in Social/Video Media:
  Trump is highly overrepresented on platforms like TikTok and YouTube; Democrats and progressives need to invest in these spaces or risk losing ground (55:40-57:25).

• Permission Structures & Cultural Vibes:
  More Latinos expressing support for Trump on social media can create a “permission structure” for others to follow (56:21).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the "Identity Force Field" (25:11), Carlos Odio:
  “There was a social constraint…the lens for a while was kind of identity, and it was what’s best for people like me, people like me being Latino.”

• On the need for specific policy messaging (22:50):
  “Let’s get specific: gas prices, prescription prices, the cost of baby formula…Republicans at the end of the day are looking out for the rich and the powerful and not people like you.”

• On Democrat messaging, Stephanie Valencia (30:38):
  “We need to communicate feelings over facts. Because whatever policies have passed…are not impacting everyday people's lives.”

• On the future of persuading Latino voters, Carlos Odio (57:51):
  “The way you persuade people is by providing new information that is relevant to them. We have to talk about the future, about what [Trump] has planned in the future.”

• On the power of ordinary conversations, Leo Murrieta (62:45):
  “Don’t write anyone off. Every ordinary person can be spoken to, can be convinced if they trust you. …People don’t want to hear from me. They want to hear from their nieces, their nephews, their tías, their theos, their moms, their grandmas.”

Important Timestamps

• Latino Identity & Common Values: 08:32–11:50
• Latino Electorate: Differences & Categories: 12:06–16:13
• 2020–2022 Electoral Shifts: 16:45–18:47
• Florida Case Study & “Identity Force Field”: 22:57–27:09
• Latinos’ Top Political Priorities: 29:24–30:38
• How Democrats Need to Communicate Policy: 30:38–34:16
• Immigration Views – Both/And: 36:38–39:05
• Trump’s Overreach on Deportation: 43:22–44:52
• Reaching & Persuading Latinos via Media: 51:50–55:12
• Advice for Persuading Voters: 57:51–59:21
• Leo Murrieta’s Closing Call to Action: 62:45–64:32

Practical Advice for Engagers and Organizers

• Lead with Empathy and Specifics:
  Don’t dismiss frustrations as ignorance—meet voters where they are, describe tangible policy benefits.
• Make the Election a Choice About the Future:
  Focus not on relitigating the Trump years, but on what’s at stake now—who will fight for you tomorrow?
• Don’t Rely on Stereotypes or “Othering”:
  Recognize multiple, overlapping identities and speak about shared American aspirations.
• Use Trusted Channels & Messengers:
  Spanish-language radio, WhatsApp, culturally relevant influencers, and ordinary family conversations are most persuasive.
• Provide Solutions, Not Just Critiques:
  Highlight accomplishments, but frame them as solutions to real, daily problems.

Final Takeaways

Latino voters remain one of the most dynamic, diverse, and decisive blocs in American politics. While Democrats retain many historical advantages, these cannot be taken for granted—policy, communication, and coalition-building must adapt to the realities, insecurities, and trust issues Latino (and all) voters face in 2024. Above all, persuasion, empathy, cultural fluency, and authentic engagement will be the key to winning these votes back.

[Podcast ad sections and intro/outro have been omitted for focus on core content.]