Mike Pothorser (3:18)

Great to be back.

Anat Shenker Osorio (3:19)

Thanks for having us.

Jon Favreau (3:21)

So now that we officially have our presidential and vice presidential nominees for both parties, I wanted to talk to both of you about how the race has changed, what it'll take to reassemble the anti maga coalition that beat Trump in 2020, and most importantly, the best way to persuade people who haven't yet decided who they're voting for or whether they're voting at all. Mike, it's hard to believe, but it's only been 19 days since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Not even three weeks. Aside from our new Democratic nominee and the addition of two running mates, how has this race changed in your mind since the president stepped aside?

Mike Pothorser (4:04)

Sure. And it is. It's like there's a famous saying that for decades, nothing happens, and then in a week, decades happen.

Jon Favreau (4:14)

Feels like it.

Mike Pothorser (4:15)

That's what we're living through. I think that in a way, the basic structure didn't change in the sense that even with Harris's candidate, both are underwater in terms of favorability, that we're still in an election in which it really comes down to whether it's a referendum on the future that Trump wants to take us in or on people's grumpiness about the last four years. And what Biden stepping aside did was make it much less likely. It'll be about the latter, because people were saying pretty loudly in polls and elsewhere for quite a while that they felt that his age was disqualifying, and that would have made it easier for them to make the election about Biden's age. Right. That's off the table now. So I don't think the structure of what it's going to look like has changed, but the opportunity to make it an election about clean, about what they're going to do has just really become easier.

Jon Favreau (5:28)

Anat, you are quite familiar with another national campaign where an old guy stepped aside for a younger woman with just six weeks until the election and she won. Talk about Jacinda Arden's 2017 victory in New Zealand that made her the world's youngest woman head of state. And what lessons do you think Kamala Harris and the Democrats can learn from that race?

Anat Shenker Osorio (5:52)

Yeah, for sure. Necessary caveats. New Zealand is like more sheep than people. It's roughly the size of Minnesota, which I think will come up in future conversation, not a global superpower. So nothing that I say discounts the reality that New Zealand is sort of the land of make believe, where literally everyone is cousins. And the United States. But that said, I think was really, really extraordinary about that dynamic, is that Andrew Little, who was the head of the Labour Party, read the tea leaves, saw the writing on the wall, and assessed his party's ability to overtake the then ruling Conservative coalition. If I stay here, we will lose. Brought Jacinda Arden to the forest. She was a relatively unknown backbencher. And in six weeks, they already had the ads made, they had the banners printed. Everything was done. And so they had to remake an entire campaign, which sounds pretty exhausting in very little time. And I think the main thing, I mean, besides the fact that their slogan, which they ended up going with, which is let's do this, you know, is the fact that Harris has so prominently featured let's win this a homage or a nod to Jacinda? I don't know. But fun thing to speculate.

Jon Favreau (7:11)

Yeah.

Anat Shenker Osorio (7:12)

Is that it really revivified the campaign. It took a kind of known entity, known quantity, and shook it up. And I think that that dynamic, to add to what Mike was saying, yes, it's absolutely about, in the US case, putting MAGA's agenda and just exact the many, many waves that they plan to screw you. And not in the fun way on the front burner. But it's also that right now, as we saw in New Zealand back in the day, the choir actually wants to sing from this songbook. And that's not nothing. It's not nothing to have, even if it's just activists. And it seems from the data and at least the conversations we've been having in focus groups that the disaffected Democratic base is much more excited about singing this song. And that's really the only way to break a signal through the noise is to have something that the choir wants to repeat over and over again. That's what Jacinda did. That appears, at least for now, like what Kamala is doing, even if it's just in our own social media bubble. People actually now want to talk about this. They want to show visible support for it.

Jon Favreau (8:26)

So, Anat, you just mentioned focus groups. I'm sure both of you have heard a lot about how voters are processing these last three weeks, either in focus groups or polling. Anat, you were kind enough to share some findings from four different focus groups conducted over the last month. Persuadable white women in Michigan, persuadable black women in Michigan, black men across the battleground states, and young black voters across the battleground states. I want to start with the two groups of persuadable women voters from Michigan, one made up of white women and one made up of black women. Mike, two things in these groups stuck out at me. One, some of them aren't really sure that Project 2025 could actually happen. And two, they don't want to hear so much Trump bashing. Now, I know that you've said the Democrats will win if this election is about maga. So how do you reconcile these two seemingly contradictory views from voters?

Mike Pothorser (9:20)

Sure. I think that one of the challenges internally in politics is that people are often not very good at telling you what's going to persuade them or what they do or don't want to hear. And part of the problem in the political conversation is always taking them literally and then being surprised when it turns out not to be true at all. So if you remember, like, up until it wasn't, if Democrats did the J6 committee hearings, it would backlash because people wanted to put that in the rearview mirror for, I don't know, more than a decade. They said, don't talk about abortion because it would never be a voting issue on our side, because that's what people said in polls right up until Biden stepped aside. Harris wasn't doing any better in the polls against Trump than he was. And so you really have to be cautious about just taking at face value what people say. And I think probably anat will go into this, but I think there are two kinds of ways of attacking 2025 and Trump and so forth. One is a kind of wild ad hominem way, and another that is really just making it credible that these things will happen. Right. Because people basically categorize those kinds of attacks as negative advertising when they don't believe it and as truth when they do. And so what's important is, especially for people who are not seen as, you know, committed capital D Democrats to be concerned about all the things in 2025.

Jon Favreau (11:21)

Anat, what do you think?

Anat Shenker Osorio (11:23)

Yeah, I mean, it's a horrific thing to have me on tape agreeing with Mike, and I really wish that this isn't the position that you put me in, John. I'm not really sure what I did to you. We've met in person very few times. I don't think I've had the opportunity to be as offensive as I'd like to, but clearly I did do something, and this is very weird way of taking it out on me. I use weird very intentionally in this sense.

Jon Favreau (11:51)

Yeah, no, I'm sorry.

Anat Shenker Osorio (11:52)

Now, I'm gonna answer the question, but I just need you to know exactly what you've done. So that you can think about it. I think that you know what Mike is talking about and what you've brought up is something that I have termed the credulity chasm mostly. Cause Mike can't pronounce that phrase for some reason. So it's really perfect in that way. And what we see, for example, in one test that we did, we asked folks, we sort of gave them the bare bones introduction to Project 2025. And I'm going to interrupt myself to say one of the biggest challenges that we have serving about Project 2025 is that when we actually cut and paste verbatim from the Heritage document, people are like, that's a bunch of bullshit. Like why did you make that up and what is wrong with you and why are you lying to us? And we're like, we actually have to temper what is in the document in order to be able to ask questions about it. It's extraordinarily hard to write these questions because people think that it's apocryphal and like, so we have to make it sound less terrible.

Jon Favreau (12:55)

What are some of the parts of the document that people are like least likely to believe because they sound so terrible? Are there any examples or just one or two?

Anat Shenker Osorio (13:03)

Yeah. The stuff about, for example, I mean, I don't have it verbatim in front of me, but basically to, you know, more or less paraphrasing, it says that they're gonna outlaw porn and they're gonna imprison people who make says that. You know, the stuff about enacting sort of biblical rules around marriage ending no fault divorce. People don't believe that, especially when coupled with, you know, Mr. Divorce himself, Donald Trump, like that feels especially difficult to buy. Cause they're like, this man, this man does divorce at the drive through. Like, I'm not really sure that this is his agenda. So yeah, I mean, those are some of the kind of head scratchery elements. So to go back, when we have asked folks, for example, you know, we'll do sort of a bare bones Description of Project 2025 and this is some of what they intend. And we'll even sort of water it down and say they plan to or they intend to or whatever. And then we ask them, do you think that this is gonna happen? And we offer them a series of reasons why it could potentially not happen. Like Democrats will stop it, the Supreme Court will stop it. You know, they're too incompetent to do it. They don't actually want to do it. When we ask the question that way, we end up with 21% of voters saying they will do this. We can increase that number if we ask the reverse of that question by saying, what are the reasons why they could possibly enact this? But going back to that credulity chasm, which is real and much more marked in our focus groups among white voters, black voters, so far that we've talked, they have no trouble. They're like, oh, no, they're gonna do all that. That's their plan. That's their venue. Like, they don't live in the credulity chasm. They live in the reality. For folks who are sort of scratching their heads how this is possible, I would just remind you that we lived through at least a generation of people being like, oh, but they'll never overturn roe. That's never gonna happen. And so the just world theory, what psychologist John Jost calls system justification, and it's really strong in people, this sense that things are not going to be upended, the world's not going to be turned upside down. My sort of desires in life aren't going to just be taken from me. And so the ways that we have to contend with this, that we've seen are, number one, to point out that in states where they have full control, where they have a red trifecta, they have implemented lots of these. That's a helpful sort of proof point. Always pointing back to Dobbs and the fall of ROE is a helpful proof point. And then actually what we find is ensuring people feel that they have agency to stop this, giving them the sense that this is their plan, this is what they intend, but not on our watch. And we are like, they'll have to go through our dead body to do it increases people's willingness to accept that this is actually their plan. Because much like climate change messaging for lots of time, if you just simply present people with, you know, this is the horrible abyss that awaits us, they have a natural response to want to be like, la, la la la la la la, la, la. Because how are you supposed to take that in? And so it's about sort of how we present it. Not presenting a laundry list, just picking out three things it before in other places and making sure that whatever we say about the badness, it comes packed inside of a but we're going to defy them.

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Jon Favreau (17:30)

Mike One thing you hear from a lot of these voters is when they're asked about Kamala Harris, they know of her, know her. A lot of them say, I want to know more. I want to know what she stands for. I want to know who she is. How much do you think Kamala Harris needs to define herself and talk about her plans and her agenda and erase that, as you've said, needs to be in a larger sense about MAGA and the threat of maga.

Mike Pothorser (18:00)

I think one of the things that is really important is that, like, there's just not one thing that every actor should be doing right. There's no, like just comprehensive. This is what everyone should be saying or doing right. Harris My view of it, part of why she's been as successful as quickly as she has been is because she has been defining herself in a pretty good way by showing up and being comfortable in herself and in her attitude towards Trump and in ways that aren't exactly. Well, here's my position on this and here's my position on that. I think really she just needs to clear the bar of people feeling comfortable with her being president and then it can move to the other. I think obsessing over, like, what combination of issues is she going to talk about or what positions is she going to take is not what voters really are looking for. They just want to be comfortable with the idea that she's going to be their president. And that has a lot more intangible to it.

Jon Favreau (19:16)

Anat what, if anything, is different about the voters she still needs to persuade versus the voters that Biden needed to persuade.

Anat Shenker Osorio (19:24)

I mean, I think it's still roughly the same calculus. I'll talk about the differences after the similarities. You know, it's still what Mike has termed over and again, this anti MAGA majority. It's the folks who turned out for us in 2020, the folks who turned out for us in 22, and the places that they did turn out where we won. I think that obviously people age into the electorate and some people age out of the electorate as they age out of their life on earth. So there are some changes in terms of, you know, the actual physical makeup of what that voting body is. We have had, as I think, you know, well, struggles at the younger end and so that's a place where I think Harris is really, really well positioned to kind of harness this enthusiasm, this excite excitement. At the risk of presenting anecdote here, I think one of the sort of fun things that's happened to us is that as we're recruiting, we only really do two kinds of focus groups. One is with swing voters, and one is with people we call disaffected Democrats, who basically are kind of in that double hater category. So are the swing, to be quite honest. And the last couple of groups, we have actually had challenges with our recruitment vendor to get disaffected folks into these rooms because they're not meeting the recruit, which is, you know, to say, I'm not excited to vote, that's anecdotal. But, you know, a fun little nugget of hope.

Jon Favreau (20:57)

It's a good anecdote. I'll take it.

Anat Shenker Osorio (20:58)

Yeah. Fun little nugget for you on a Friday. So I think that it's largely the same group. I think that obviously, you know, we still woke up after this decision for Biden to step aside and hand the reins over to Harris. Living in the United States, I know that most people don't want to remember that. And by that, I mean, you know, still a racist, sexist spot. And so it's possible there are some people, especially in that more swinging category, who were okay with an older white man who are kind of less comfortable with a younger than him woman of color. And so, you know, sort of, how does that dynamic play? I think that I largely view the election as a question of kind of getting our anti maga coalition to turn out rather than try to lure people in who just kind of have no business ever voting for us. So I don't think it's that different. But I'm actually curious what Mike would say in terms of, you know, is it the same folks? Different folks?

Jon Favreau (22:03)

What do you think, Mike?

Mike Pothorser (22:04)

I think it's mostly the same. I think that we're now in our fourth Trump MAGA election. Over that period of time, there are at least 10 million more people who can vote this November who have voted for our side than voted for their side, beginning as if we don't know that and as if we're just starting from scratch. And looking for swing voters is really misguided. Right. If we just get the people who voted for us to vote again. Right. Then we win.

Jon Favreau (22:45)

Right.

Mike Pothorser (22:46)

And that's just a fact. Right. And it's very different from the way it felt in 2016, where we're desperate to find new voters. We have the new voters. Right. And I think one of the things that you said earlier that was really, I really appreciated was it's not just a question of getting people to are undecided between which one to vote for a much bigger audience are the people who may or may not vote. Right?

Jon Favreau (23:13)

Yeah.

Mike Pothorser (23:14)

And in the sort of mainstream commentary about the election, that part of the electorate is completely absent in the conversation. Right. The conversation is always, how do I get them a voter to be for her instead of him? Never. How do I get a voter to care enough who already is against MAGA to show up again? And that's really what we have to do. I mean, to me, as someone who follows this, it's kind of mind blowing that after 2016 we had this really unprecedented increase in people voting, and no one pays attention to that, that there's this new group that creates the anti MAGA majority. The people who voted in 2016 and 2020, the people who voted in the Clinton and for Biden voted for both of them by two points. Right. If they were the only people who came back, Donald Trump would be finishing his second of three terms or whatever. Right. But that isn't what happened. Instead, about 30 or 40 million people who hadn't voted in 2016 showed up and they supported Biden by 12 points and by half of them really weren't thrilled about it, but really didn't like Donald Trump. And that's basically who we have to get out. It's young voters who really think the system has failed them, both Democrats and Republicans, and want to change things up a lot, but not in the way Trump wants to. And that's why through these last several months, even with Biden on, like, still nominally the ticket, those voters, those voters who had voted for Biden were not going to Trump. Even in sort of the worst polls, only 4% max of people who voted for Biden in 2020 said they were going for Trump. Another 20% or so said they were undecided or going for a third party. Right.

Jon Favreau (25:29)

Yeah.

Mike Pothorser (25:30)

They just parked themselves somewhere else. And Harris quickly got a bunch of them back, which is what we're seeing. But whether or not the rest of them show up comes down to the credulity chasm and whether they're convinced again that they need to go out and vote because there will be a national abortion ban or there will be national stop and frisk, or there will be reckless deportations of your friends and all of that. So that's what has to have that's who we have to win back, Walz.

Anat Shenker Osorio (26:05)

Says, and what the independent expenditures and what activists say, it's all a piece of the puzzle. But I think this is where I really have to praise Harris, because rather than fall into the trap of let's take the temperature today and see that, oh, Social Security is the issue du jour, or repealing Obamacare is the issue du jour, or this tax cut is the issue du jour, she's actually constructing a narrative which is hallelujah, lovely to see. And that narrative, I think it's undeniable, is constructed out of 2F words. And those F words, not one of my favorite F words, but those two F words are future and freedom, and freedom's plural whenever possible. And I think that that does succinctly and powerfully what we've been talking about, which is really to make clear that this election is a referendum on which future we're going to have. A future in which we allow MAGA Republicans to take us backwards into the Mesozoic Era and to control our lives and, and to, you know, take the wealth of our livelihoods and basically to refashion the world in their own interest on behalf of the billionaires who have bought them. Or a future in which, let's not pretend everything is magically delicious, but a future in which we sort of still possess the freedoms to be able to live, to fight for the rest of the promise of the American dream that has heretofore evaded us, but we still believe, and I think that that storyline, which can be applied to then how you talk about Social Security or how you talk about Obamacare or how you talk about taxes or how you talk about unions. That's what allows a signal to break through the noise because it's a repeated trope again and again and again. You know, I think it's just really great to see that.

Jon Favreau (27:57)

Yeah, yeah, it has been. Let's talk about the running mates, who in some ways are like mirror images of each other. J.D. vance was picked as the MAGA heir apparent for his working class, rural Midwest roots. Though what we've seen so far in the campaign trail is what Tim Walls calls weird. And he was selected by Kamala Harris for his rural, working class Midwest roots to project a very different image to America. Anat you've worked in Minnesota on campaigns with the very same messaging. We're hearing from Tim Walls. Let's hear some of that now.

Tim Walz (28:31)

But these guys are just weird. That's where they are. So it ain't it isn't much else. Don't give them the power. Look, are they a threat to democracy? Yes. Are they going to take our rights away? Yes. Are they going to put people's lives in danger? Yes. Are they going to endanger the planet by not dealing with climate change?

Mike Pothorser (28:45)

Yes.

Tim Walz (28:45)

They're going to do all that. But don't lift these guys up like they're sometimes heroes. Everybody in this room knows. I know it as a teacher. A bully has no self confidence. A bully has no strength. They have nothing. Their policies are what destroyed rural America. They've divided us. They're in our exam rooms, they're telling us what books to read. And I think what Kamala Harris knows is bringing people together around the shared values. Strong public schools, strong labor unions that create the middle class, health care that's affordable and accessible. Those are the things you look what they're talking about. They went right to division. In Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and their personal choices that they make. Even if we wouldn't make the same choice for ourselves. There's a golden rule. Mind your own damn business.

Jon Favreau (29:32)

Anat, tell us a little bit about your work in Minnesota. For those who haven't tuned into earlier seasons of the Wilderness and your fantastic podcast words to win by, tell us a little bit about your work with Minnesota and Tim Walls.

Anat Shenker Osorio (29:45)

So Minnesota, as a person from Wisconsin, people need to understand just how painful it is for me to say anything positive about Minnesota. So obviously everything that I'm saying is true because no one from Wisconsin wants to praise Minnesota unless they absolutely have to. In 2016, Trump came within the closest margin of getting Minnesota. He didn't that a presidential candidate had done since Ronald Reagan. And what the right wing in the state saw in that and they in that year, they had control of the state Senate and the state House. They saw sort of their ability to weaponize the trifecta in the Minnesota case of anti migrant, anti black, anti Muslim hate baiting because of the significant Somali American population that is clustered in that largely white state. And so they went double, triple, quadruple down with all sorts of ugly dog whistles. And they had all of this messaging and all of this sort of discourse about specifically Somali daycare fraud and suitcases full of cash going to Mogadishu. Like that was their story. They were pounding that gong hard. And what organizers in the state and here I really just want to hold up seiu, Minnesota Education, Minnesota Faith in Minnesota, Unidos, the Somali Worker Center. Better Minnesota, like so many folks had already had the Muscle of working together as a choir, of having a unified message, of knowing that in order to break a signal through the noise, you have to say fewer things and say them more often. And so they looked around and they'd been going door to door because they organize year round, God bless them. And what they found is that when they would knock on doors in rural Minnesota and they would give their economic promise, they would say, you know, we're gonna raise wages and we're gonna give you childcare and we're gonna do this kitchen table, kitchen table, kitchen table, kitchen table. People at the doors would say, that sounds lovely, but there was a guy knocking doors here about half an hour ago who said that immigrants are taking our jobs or who said that we can't go into the Twin Cities because there's too much crime. And what they realized is that a colorblind economic only message has no hope of landing and penetrating in an arena in which people are subjected to a cacophony of this divide in order to conquer. Right wing strategy that we know well. And so they signed on to this project that I was really, really proud to help lead called the Race Class Narrative. And then we actually started implementing it most thoroughly in Minnesota in 2018, when Tim Walls became the governor. And we called that campaign, we branded it Greater Than Fear, because that is the goofy way that Minnesotans refer to the rural parts of their state. They call it Greater Minnesota. Who knows, right? They have to have their affectations.

Jon Favreau (32:43)

Sure.

Anat Shenker Osorio (32:44)

I think they also call soda pop.

Jon Favreau (32:45)

That's fine. I like that.

Anat Shenker Osorio (32:48)

Do you know this is a little aside. Do you know that instead of calling it Duck duck goose, they call it duck duck gray duck, which is honestly, like, how are they calling people weird? Because that's.

Jon Favreau (32:58)

That's weird. I was just about to say it. That's weird. That is weird.

Anat Shenker Osorio (33:02)

It's very controversial. Duck, duck, gray duck. It's like the most upsetting thing to learn about Minnesota. I'm sorry to be the one to share it. I'm guessing this is going on the cutting room floor. So when we started assembling that campaign, Tim Walls had cinched the nomination for the governorship. And at a fundraiser, the organizers sort of encouraged, AKA forced me to, after he and Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, soon to be the governor of that state, woo hoo. Made me give him a Greater Than Fear shirt with our campaign logo so that reporters that were at that event could take pictures of him sort of wearing our messaging. And when I said to them, isn't everyone gonna think that this random lady from California is an asshole for interrupting a Minnesota fundraiser. They're like, absolutely, they will, but then you'll get on a plane and go home. So Walls really, through partnership with these extraordinary organizers and through his own incredible ability, props were due as an order and as sort of everyone's dad really figured out that you can't just make believe that these attacks are not happening and try to kind of let them therefore dominate the conversation about race, about gender, about these sort of, quote, cultural issues. And he really figured out, as did other folks in the state, how you have to have a message that presents a really big we and that presents values, whether that be mind your own business, whether that be looking out for your neighbor, whether that be freedom that most people believe in and then call out the other side for precisely how they're trafficking in division, essentially reveal the magic trick that it's all a sleight of hand, that they want us pointing our finger in the wrong direction. They want us shaming and blaming some sort of constructed other so that we don't notice that actually they're the ones that are making our lives impossible by handing the wealth our work creates to a small class of billionaires. And Walls has really perfected this. And I hope that it serves as a model that, yes, he's real good at this, and that is somewhat an individual characteristic, but there's also a formula to it, and it's a formula that you can rinse and repeat and it works.

Jon Favreau (35:30)

Anat, what do you think about Walls defining JD as weird? What do you think about the weird messaging?

Anat Shenker Osorio (35:36)

Yeah, we've been having an internal conversation among Mike and I both work in what I like to call cadena perpetua, my lifetime sentence of working with Mike in a thing called the Research Collaborative. So among sort of all the pollsters within the collaborative, we've been debating this weird thing. So the experiments that have been done on vote choice, both sort of out in the world with different kinds of content, and more recently a poll that Axios reported on with swing voters, they don't show vote choice movement out of this weird thing. Perhaps not the most shocking. People do have some measure of their calculus baked in. It's more important to highlight to folks that MAGA is dangerous than that they're weird. It really needs to be voter facing. It really needs to be about, you know, not that Mike Johnson and his son co monitor each other's porn, which I was very, very shocked to see. Most Americans didn't deem the most weird thing And I was telling Mike, I'm like, someone needs to do a PhD on that because that's obviously the weirdest thing.

Jon Favreau (36:42)

I would have guessed. I would have put that at the top of the list for sure.

Anat Shenker Osorio (36:45)

Yeah, like, I don't know if we just have a men problem and the two of you could fill us in on exactly what's going on and why that's not deemed weird. I don't understand it. But the most important thing is really to have the messaging be what I call voter facing. And what's interesting about that walls clip that you played is, you know, him saying, yeah, they're weird. They want to do this to you. They want to do this to you. They want to do this to you. And so for me, a few things about weird. Number one, you know, it's a question of what follows the word weird is what follows the word weird. Like they monitor each other's porn, which, like is according to me objectively weird but not voter facing. Like that's some sort of underground lifestyle habit that I don't understand. But it's not saying you don't get health insurance anymore. It's not saying you're not going to be able to have Social Security when you retire. So it's important that the way that it gets articulated is voter facing. The other thing that I would say about it that I think isn't measurable in a traditional randomized control trial that's looking at vote choice is does weird serve the role of a prebuttal or a rejoinder to the anti woke attack? Because if you take it at its essence, I think the anti woke attack is really about. You don't believe what real Americans quote unquote believe. You are outside of some kind of established norm. This is what most of us want. This is what most of us like, this is how most of us behave. And you're out there on some sort of, you know, San Franciscan Brooklyn island and what the hell is that? Silver Lake can be included too. John, you're welcome. Thanks, Marilyn. Mike, you're good. I think that to the extent that weird is an interesting rejoinder to that without actually calling attention to it, without saying we're not woke or it's fine to be woke or why are they attacking us for woke? All of which doesn't work, Weird sort of is serving the same purpose of saying this is the boundary, this is the norm, this is kind of what people believe and these folks are so far from it that they're kind of in their own category. I think that in that sense it's an interesting approach. I think it's another permutation of this race class narrative thing where we're sort of calling out the other side for being divisive and hateful. But that again, you have to ascribe motivation. If it's simply that there are in between husband and wife call each other mother and father. That's weird, but doesn't impact me. If they want to like tell me what I can and can't do with my body, then that is a kind of weird. That is really, really disastrous.

Jon Favreau (39:43)

Yeah. Mike, I had been thinking that we shouldn't necessarily be calling them weird because that's just not as effective, but we should be calling their ideas weird because they could actually have an effect on our lives, on voters lives, and not said it better. But I was going to ask you because, you know, I've had this struggle where we've got to frame MAGA as dangerous and a threat, which is different than weird. But then now I'm coming back to this credulity chasm. And so I kind of thought that maybe weird was helping some people who might not believe that it's a real threat and dangerous and that they should be scared by saying, yeah, well I don't know if it's that dangerous, but it's certainly weird and I don't want that. But I'm just trying to figure out like how you break through for people who aren't sure that it sounds dangerous or, or think people who say it's dangerous are just over exaggerating.

Mike Pothorser (40:32)

Right. So take this as a concurring opinion to what Anat said. I think that we've all heard opinionators say don't bother attacking Trump. Everyone knows it's been 10 years, there's nothing left to tell people they don't know. And I think that's not correct. I think it's is correct if it's about how weird he is, how off putting he is. Right. I mean there's a whole comedy industry based on essentially how weird they are. Right. There's, you know, msnbc, which is business model, is how weird they are. Right? Yeah. So it's not really telling anyone that anything that's going to help by calling them weird. What it does do though is make Harris and Rawls relatable. And that's where I think it's been really helpful in this time that for them instead of being super serious all the time and being like, eat your spinach, you can see that there are people like God, Thank God they're finally acting like human beings and like automatons. Right. And so I think for them in this moment, it was a great part of the introduction to America. Right. That they're loose, that they can see that. And in terms of international elections, where we have the same kind of, like, fascist who's going to ruin everything on this side versus the other, that the sweet spot that is landing the credulity chasm saying, yes, if they get elected, your life is going to be much worse, and treating the wannabe dictator as a clown. Right. Not cowering at them because the only way they'll ever get the power is if they win the election. And so I think for the candidates to be looking for ways to just laugh at Trump, that's his kryptonite, right? Which we're seeing him knelt down over it, Right?

Jon Favreau (42:48)

Yeah.

Mike Pothorser (42:48)

It's just. Don't be sanctimonious.

Jon Favreau (42:51)

Yeah, no, I totally agree. I think much more mockery of Trump and mockery in sort of like a light way that makes him seem like a clown. As you said.

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Jon Favreau (43:43)

All right, let's talk about what Kamala Harris, Tim Walls, the Democratic Party, and hopefully everyone listening, can do to persuade voters over the next few weeks. Democratic National Convention is essentially a four day national TV ad during prime time. The message and the story we tell there is entirely in our control, even if not everyone hears it the way we want to. And so far, the Harris campaign has given us a hint of what that message might sound like with their first paid television ad. Let's listen.

Kamala Harris Campaign Ad Voice (44:13)

There are some people who think we should be a country of chaos, of fear, of hate. But us, we choose something different. We choose choose freedom. The freedom not just to get by, but get ahead. The freedom to be safe from gun violence, the freedom to make decisions about your own body. We choose a future where no child lives in poverty, where we can all afford health care, where no one is above the law. We believe in the promise of America and we're ready to fight for it. Because when we fight, we win.

Jon Favreau (44:59)

So join us so Anat, when I first heard this, I was like, is Anat writing her speeches now? It's like anyone who's listened to the wilderness and heard you on this podcast in past seasons will know, will recognize the freedom framing. Talk to me about the Freedom messaging. Democracy's out, freedom's in. Why does it work? I was provocative there. I was intentionally provocative.

Anat Shenker Osorio (45:26)

Let me stand up for democracy for a moment and just say, because this actually has come out. There was even a Washington Post piece about this yesterday. To be clear, freedom is the way that we talk about democracy. It's not that we're sort of eschewing democracy. It's that democracy is too much of an abstraction for people to actually get excited about. Whereas freedom, to use a dorky word for you, you're welcome, is corporeal. When you ask people for kind of the salient exemplar of having freedom taken away, they will tell you, oh, it's being confined, it's being chained, it's being unable to move. It's kind of a thing that you can feel inside of your body. Whereas, like, what is democracy? Draw me a picture of that. It's just too nebulous. So the thing about freedom is that when you ask U.S. voters, and this is true across public polling, it's true across internal polling that we've done, what value do you most closely associate with this country? It's freedom. And it's freedom, number one. And number two isn't even close. And that's true across demographics. It's been true for a very long time. And so we've lived in this horrible universe in which we've allowed for a while the right to claim freedom, because they think freedom means that you get to worship your God as long as, of course, he's Jesus and you get to worship your gun as long as it's very, very, very large and you're white. So they have claimed this. And the left has been for many, many years, reluctant. And both Mike and I have experienced, as have others, like people being like, oh, we can't reclaim that. That's right wing. That's this. And what I would say to people all along is, tell that to FDR. Tell that to Martin Luther King Jr. Free at last, free at last. Thank God Almighty, I'm free at last. Tell that to the marriage equality movement, who not coincidentally, shifted from the right to marry to the freedom to marry. Freedom is what we call a contested concept. It has different iterations in different kinds of frames. It does have a right wing version and it absolutely has a left wing version. And so reclaiming it as we saw really, really forthrightly in 2022, among not coincidentally, folks like Governor Shapiro, who really banged the protect our freedoms drum, what it allows us to do is, again, as Mike said before, be relatable. If this is kind of the top thing that your voters think is meaningful about your country, then you can't really afford to just let it go. And it has a lot of credibility because of the fact that they came for our freedoms with respect to Dobbs, the freedom, as Harris says in that ad, to decide for ourselves what happens to our bodies. And the same is true for contraception and for IVF and a whole raft of things. And so claiming freedom, what it allows you to do is have a story that you can tell about all the things, because you can talk about freedom to send your kid to school and know their biggest worry is, where did I leave my backpack? Freedom to retire in dignity, freedom to join a union and be able to negotiate a fair return. It's a word that allows you to connect issues together rather than having to have a separate story about each thing. And it's a direct contestation of what MAGA is doing, which is trying to take away our freedoms on every level and in every dimension.

Jon Favreau (48:56)

Mike, what do you think the party's messaging goals should be for the convention? What do they need to get done?

Mike Pothorser (49:02)

I think what they have to get done is things we're already talking about landing that we will all be comfortable if Harris is president and doing as much distance. Closing on the credulity chasm. One thing I want to add though, that about the democracy part, which I think is really important, is that if you don't think that the direction of the country is that great, which only about 3/4 of Americans think, then it's democracy that's failing. Unlike any other industrial country. We've never had anything other than democracy. Right. And like, how we should govern ourselves has never been on the ballot or in terms of vocabulary, contested. Right. And so what we just saw in France, where the not far right all got together in the spit, which are not, you can take a lot of credit for, but in helping really quickly is because you don't have to explain to people in France what fascism is, right? There have been different types of governments in all those European countries, right. We have no other word for how we live than democracy. And if you don't think it's going well, like, to quote or not, it's like, what has it ever Done for you. Right. And so I think we even are disqualifying ourselves when we talk to people who are not yet in our camp and say, but he'll destroy democracy. Because anybody who would respond to that is already on our side. Right. What we have to do is make clear what tangibly is at stake, what they don't realize could be taken away from them. Right. And I completely agree. It's like we should have been contested. We've been trying to contest this anatomy for like, what was it like when we did the labor thing?

Anat Shenker Osorio (51:10)

2012?

Mike Pothorser (51:12)

Yeah, right. It's taken a while, but. Because the right wing version of freedom is essentially the freedom of privileged white men to do whatever they want. Right. And that is what it has meant and that's why people, not just the left, but anybody else, has shied away from it. There's a great book called Freedom's Dominion by Jefferson Cowie that really makes that clear. So anyway, I think that freedom is much better and we really over index on how much people value democracy.

Jon Favreau (51:48)

Yeah, no, I completely agree.

Anat Shenker Osorio (51:50)

The other thing about that ad, and generally speaking when we test things, is that the protagonist, antagonist, relationship that needs to be set up in messages, including when they're spoken by Democrats and certainly when they're spoken about Democrats by the rest of us. It needs to be that the antagonists obviously are MAGA Republicans and the protagonists are voters. They're not the Democratic official who's running. And that's true both, because hate to tell you, but there's nobody who believes that Democrats are coming to save us that just. I mean, you want to talk about credulity, that's where people absolutely are like, funny, cute. No, I don't think so. Yeah, but even if they did believe it, and as a focus group junkie, I can assure you they don't, we wouldn't say it anyway because what we're asking of the viewer of the ad or the listener of the message is we want you to feel like you gotta do something, you gotta get off. I now feel dirty using the word couch. I don't know if sofa's better, but like, sorry, I was saying it earlier.

Jon Favreau (52:52)

When I'm like, the voters that are gonna get off the couch and I was like, oh, can we still say that?

Anat Shenker Osorio (52:56)

Yeah, exactly. I mean, I don't know what the rating is on this podcast, but like, I hope you have explicit already. So, you know, we need you to get up off the couch. Whatever you're doing there. I'm not here to judge because you.

Mike Pothorser (53:08)

Should have the freedom to do whatever you want on your.

Jon Favreau (53:11)

That's true. Yeah. And whatever piece of furniture you enjoy.

Anat Shenker Osorio (53:14)

You know what? I've heard good things about Ottomans. I don't know, it's not the way I go, it's not how I do it. But like, okay, so I think that what's going on in that ad and in better pieces of communication is that there is some element of and we're the ones and let's decide and we have the chance to make the choice. And that's where that kind of two futures thing comes in, which we've been seeing in testing since, you know, back in January. And we saw in Poland, we saw in Brazil, we saw to a certain extent in France more recently. You know, not for nothing was the kind of Polish overarching message, vote for the Poland you want, not the person you want. And similarly, at least in the days where we still had Biden at the top of the ticket, what we were finding is saying to people, vote for the country you want, not the candidate you want, was really, really potent. Because it is this kind of inflection and fork in the road between two possible futures, one with and one without freedom, that gets folks to wanna act and to do so in the ways that we need.

Jon Favreau (54:20)

Well, that is a great place to leave it. Anat Shankar Osorio, Mike Pothorser, thank you as always for making me smarter and sharing your insights with our audience. Freedom. I'm in.

Mike Pothorser (54:34)

Yeah.

Jon Favreau (54:35)

All right, guys, take care. Thank you.

Mike Pothorser (54:37)

Thanks. Take care.

Jon Favreau (54:44)

We'll see you next week for the final episode of the Wilderness. The Wilderness is a production of Crooked Media. It's written and hosted by me, Jon Favreau. Our senior producer and editor is Andrea B. Scott. Austin Fisher is our producer and Farah Safari is our associate producer. Sound design by Vasily Fotopoulos. Music by Marty Fowler, Charlotte Landis and Jordan Kanter sound engineered the show. Thanks to Katie Long, Reed Churlin, Matt degrat and Madeline Herringer for production support to our video team, Rachel Gajewski, Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel and David Toles who filmed and edited the show. If the Wilderness has inspired you to get involved, head on over to votesaveamerica.com2024 to sign up and find a volunteer shift near.

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