Runaway Country with Alex Wagner

Episode 7: Kamala Harris’s Winning Message

Released: August 11, 2024 – Crooked Media

Overview

This episode delves deep into the aftermath of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, the Harris–Walz ticket’s emerging message, and the dynamics influencing persuadable voters, especially in battleground states. Veteran host Jon Favreau is joined by progressive messaging experts Anat Shenker-Osorio and Mike Pothorser to analyze recent focus groups, effective campaign narratives, and strategies for mobilizing the anti-MAGA coalition in a close and highly charged election environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Landscape After Biden's Exit

Timestamps: 03:21 – 05:28

• Mike Pothorser likens the moment to “decades happen in a week,” saying the fundamental structure of the race remains but focus has shifted from Biden’s vulnerabilities (age) to a future-based contrast between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
• Removing Biden's age from the conversation, says Pothorser, allows Democrats “to make it an election about…what they're going to do,” rather than “people's grumpiness about the last four years” (04:15).

2. Lessons from Jacinda Ardern’s New Zealand Campaign

Timestamps: 05:28 – 08:26

• Anat Shenker-Osorio draws parallels between the dramatic leadership handover in New Zealand’s Labour Party (2017) and the Democrats’ recent shift, noting how a sudden, energetic campaign can galvanize the base.
• Jacinda Ardern's slogan “let’s do this” reinvigorated supporters; similarly, Harris’s “let’s win this” is sparking visible supporter enthusiasm:

  “The choir wants to sing from this songbook. … That’s really the only way to break a signal through the noise” (07:12 - ASO).

3. Focus Groups: Voter Skepticism & Messaging Challenges

Timestamps: 08:26 – 16:54

• Groups Studied: Persuadable white women & Black women in Michigan, Black men across battleground states, Young Black voters nationally.
• Key Findings:
  • Many white voters are skeptical about Project 2025, fearing political exaggeration; Black voters, conversely, expect MAGA to follow through on harmful plans (13:03).
  • Anat identifies the “credulity chasm”—a reluctance to believe partisan warnings until after they’ve come true (“We lived through at least a generation of people being like, ‘Oh, but they'll never overturn Roe.’ That's never gonna happen.” —13:47).
  • To counter skepticism, message needs to focus on concrete precedent and actionable hope (“not on our watch” framing).

4. Defining Kamala Harris: Comfort vs. Detailed Policies

Timestamps: 17:30 – 19:16

• Mike: It’s less about enumerating policy positions, more about voters' comfort with Harris as president.

  “They just want to be comfortable with the idea that she's going to be their president. And that has a lot more intangible to it.” (18:00)

5. Mobilizing the Anti-MAGA Majority vs. Chasing Swing Voters

Timestamps: 19:16 – 26:05

• Anat and Mike agree: The biggest task is turning out “double-hater” or disaffected Democrat voters—the anti-MAGA coalition that delivered victories in 2020 and 2022.
• “If we just get the people who voted for us [before] to vote again. Right. Then we win.” —Mike (22:46)
• Many Biden ’20 voters say they’re undecided, not switching to Trump, highlighting the need to rekindle their motivation.

6. Breaking Through With “Freedom” and “Future” Framing

Timestamps: 26:05 – 29:45; 44:13 – 48:56

• Anat: Harris’s top-line narrative focuses on the dual themes of “future” and “freedom” as values that can unify disparate policy goals under a single, motivating story.

  “That narrative…is constructed out of two F words… future and freedom, and freedom's plural whenever possible.” (26:16)

• Kamala Harris’s campaign ad plays, showcasing “freedom to … get ahead,” “be safe from gun violence,” “make decisions about your own body,” and “no one is above the law.”

7. The “Weird” Framing of MAGA & Its Limits

Timestamps: 27:57 – 42:48

• Tim Walz’s “weird” attack on JD Vance & the right: Frames MAGA as out of step with mainstream, rural, and working-class America.
• Panel Analysis: “Weird” can be a light touch to humanize Harris/Walz and ridicule the opposition—but must be coupled with messaging on tangible harm.
  • “It’s more important to highlight to folks that MAGA is dangerous than that they're weird…” —Anat (35:36)
• “Mockery in a light way” (43:05) is an effective rejoinder to Trump’s persona, as long as it makes the threat relatable (“treating the wannabe dictator as a clown.” —Mike, 41:00).

8. Freedom vs. Democracy as Messaging Frames

Timestamps: 44:59 – 51:48

• Anat: “Freedom is the way that we talk about democracy,” because freedom is immediate and relatable, whereas democracy is too abstract.
  • “What value do you most closely associate with this country? It's freedom. And it's freedom, number one. And number two isn't even close.” (45:47)
• Mike: Warning about “democracy” losing resonance when people are disappointed with government. “We really over-index on how much people value democracy.” (51:48)

9. Making Voters the Protagonists

Timestamps: 51:50 – 54:20

• Political messaging should position MAGA Republicans as the antagonists, but voters—not politicians—as the protagonists (“We want you to feel like you gotta do something.” —Anat, 52:52).
• Calls to action focus on “vote for the country you want, not the candidate you want” framing.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “It's like there's a famous saying that for decades, nothing happens, and then in a week, decades happen. That's what we're living through.” —Mike Pothorser (04:04)
• “The choir actually wants to sing from this songbook.” —Anat Shenker-Osorio (07:12)
• “You have to have a message that presents a really big we…values, whether that be mind your own business, whether that be looking out for your neighbor, whether that be freedom…” —Anat (33:02)
• “Mockery of Trump, in sort of like a light way that makes him seem like a clown… that's his kryptonite.” —Jon Favreau + Mike Pothorser (42:51)
• “Freedom is what we call a contested concept. It has different iterations in different kinds of frames.” —Anat (46:54)
• “Vote for the country you want, not the candidate you want, was really, really potent.” —Anat (54:10)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:21 – Race changes after Biden steps down
• 05:28 – Lessons from New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern
• 08:26 – Focus group findings on Project 2025 skepticism
• 13:03 – White vs Black voter credulity chasm
• 17:30 – Harris’s image: comfort vs. details
• 19:16 – Mobilizing the anti-MAGA majority
• 27:57 – The “weird” framing and Tim Walz’s messaging
• 44:13 – Harris’s “freedom to…” campaign ad
• 51:50 – Voters as protagonists in political messaging
• 54:20 – Final reflections on the “two futures” framing

Tone & Language

• The episode maintains a conversational, sometimes irreverent, and deeply practical progressive tone, with frank admissions of both hope and frustration.
• Notable for its humor and candor (“I use weird very intentionally in this sense,” —Anat, 11:52), and inside-the-room strategist banter.

Takeaways for Listeners

• The Harris campaign is focusing on “freedom” and “future” to unify and energize a jaded anti-MAGA coalition, turning the message away from partisanship and toward shared values—and making democracy personal and urgent again.
• The right’s culture-war messaging can only be matched if Democrats avoid falling into “credulity chasms,” use relatable, hopeful language, and put voters—and their real-world stakes—at the center of the story.
• Effective persuasion is less about reciting policy specifics and more about giving voters a sense of agency, worth, and urgency.
• Humor, mockery, and authenticity—when paired with “voter-facing” messages—may be the essential tools for surviving (and winning) this hyper-chaotic election year.

For further action:
Listeners are encouraged to get involved at VoteSaveAmerica.com/2024.