Runaway Country with Alex Wagner
Episode 1: The Path to Defeat Donald Trump
Date: May 26, 2024
Host: Alex Wagner (Crooked Media) — Guest Host: John Favreau

Episode Overview

The debut episode of "Runaway Country" is a sobering, insightful exploration of what’s at stake in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Focusing on the looming threat of a second Trump term, host John Favreau sits down with veteran political strategists, analysts, and organizers to dissect the profound challenges and opportunities facing the anti-Trump coalition. The episode highlights how calcified political divisions, post-pandemic malaise, and a fractured media landscape have shaped the electorate—and lays out a path for listeners to make a real difference.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Alarming Stakes of 2024: What a 2nd Trump Term Could Look Like

• The episode begins with a dystopian “what if” scenario, illustrating just how far Trump could go if re-elected: ending birthright citizenship, deploying the military domestically, jailing opponents, purging civil servants, and much more ([01:08–01:51]).

  • Quote: “This might be the last presidential election in our lifetimes… I don't think most voters are sufficiently alarmed about the likelihood of that outcome.” – John Favreau (01:55)

• Political analyst Ron Brownstein outlines Trump’s plans to impose “red state” policies nationwide: bans on gender-affirming care, strict limitations on mail-in voting, and potentially a national abortion ban ([04:10]).

  • Quote: “One track…is basically using control of the federal government to force blue states to live under the rights rollbacks that have proliferated in red states…” – Ron Brownstein (04:17)

• Brownstein warns of unprecedented federal intervention in “blue” cities: talks of internment camps, National Guard deployments, and a mass deportation drive ([04:49–07:01]).

• The fragility of American legal and institutional checks is examined, with concern expressed that Trump, unconstrained by re-election concerns, could openly defy courts and purge the bureaucracy ([07:43–08:21]).

2. Why the Race Will Be Razor-Thin (Again)

• UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavrek introduces the concept of “calcification”—how American politics has become intensely polarized and static, with little room for voters to change their minds ([13:25]):

  • Rising party polarization and intra-party conformity
  • Shift from policy to identity issues (immigration, abortion, civil rights)
  • Balanced electorate: no party can count on an overwhelming majority
  • “It makes politics feel stuck. It's like calcification in the bones. It's rigid.” – Lynn Vavrek (15:02)

• Democratic strategist Adisu Dumasi and Vavrek agree: the election will again be decided by razor-thin margins in just a handful of battleground states ([15:47–16:27]).

  • “This is going to be a close race. Like, I don't know which states it's going to be…But like, you could write it down in ink.” – Adisu Dumasi (15:47)

3. The Unique Incumbency Challenge for Biden

• The old advantage of incumbency has withered: “Most voters have become disillusioned with politics and unhappy with the state of the country, no matter who’s in charge.” – John Favreau (17:29)

• Trump enjoys the unusual status of being a challenger with incumbent achievements to tout:

  • “You’re able to say like, and if I was president again, everything would be magically fixed. You don’t have to own what's happening now.” – Jen Palmieri, former Obama and Clinton comms director ([18:06])

• Post-pandemic malaise pervades the electorate, making optimism or enthusiasm rare ([18:46–20:03]):

  • “People are less happy after. I'm going to say, Covid—significantly less happy with how things are these days than they were at any point since 1972.” – Lynn Vavrek (19:23)

4. Democratic Advantages & The Power of Anti-MAGA Fear

• Longtime Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg insists the most powerful motivator in the race is not disappointment with Biden, but “fear in opposition to MAGA” ([20:54]):

  • “The MAGA that’s on the ballot in 2024 is far more dangerous, far more extreme than it was in earlier iterations.” – Simon Rosenberg (21:16)
  • Rosenberg even suggests a 25% chance at a Democratic blowout if Trump “collapses” ([21:35]).

• Rosenberg and Favreau explore Democratic overperformance in post-Dobbs midterms and the potential of a highly energized and well-organized base ([22:25, 24:02]):

  • “Picking up these higher educated, higher propensity voters is also creating the most powerful Democratic machine that we’ve ever had.” – Simon Rosenberg (24:02)

5. “You Are The Muscle”: The Case for Grassroots Action

• Every listener is encouraged to move from passive political consumption to active persuasion and organizing.

  • “Everything matters. Every issue, every ad, every voter and every person who gets involved.” – John Favreau (25:34)

• The traditional media environment is gone; peer-to-peer contact ("relational organizing") is now essential ([26:45–27:28]):

  • “Because of the fracturing of the media environment, I think the importance of peer to peer contact is maybe even more important …if my friend texts me about something, I might read it.” – Adisu Dumasi (27:28)

• A deep dive into effective voter persuasion:

  • Relational Organizing: Leveraging your own contacts to influence votes ([27:55])
  • Deep Canvassing: Empathy-based conversations shown to be more durable than surface-level outreach ([28:41])
    • “Sometimes the person…is like, 'You know what? …Now that you’ve told me how you see it and why it’s important to you, and you seem like a nice person, like, I'm with you.'” – Eitan Hirsch, Tufts political scientist (29:08)
  • Critique of "political hobbyism": Too many engaged citizens consume and argue about politics, but only ~5% volunteer ([30:05–30:41])

6. Understanding and Persuading the “Persuadables”

• The focus for the anti-Trump coalition is not on entrenched partisans, but on persuadable, uncertain voters—“the big chunk of the electorate in the middle” ([32:16]).

  • “Typically, an undecided voter…is just less interested in [politics].” – Lynn Vavrek (31:55)
  • “Black folks, if they defect a little bit, they matter. Latino folks, if they defect a little bit, they matter. If swing voters defect a little bit, they matter.” – Adisu Dumasi (33:12)

• The point of polling and focus groups: not to predict the outcome, but to identify what actually moves undecided voters ([34:07]):

  • “I read [polls] to see what do voters care about, how are they thinking… that’s how private polling and practitioners look at it.” – Adisu Dumasi (34:07)

• Challenge for volunteers/campaigns: Little of the “insider” knowledge about persuadable voters trickles down to the grassroots; this podcast aims to bridge that gap ([34:30, 35:58]).

  • “I want you to feel like Jen Palmieri feels after hearing from a focus group, like you're ready to go convince those voters to back Biden.” – John Favreau (36:24)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can't overcome the erosion of norms… federal government the first time around… it just won’t be there the second time around.”
  – Jen Palmieri, on the dangers of a second Trump term (07:43)

• “The last time an incumbent president won his second term with a bigger margin than the first was 20 years ago.”
  – John Favreau, on the end of the “incumbent advantage” (17:29)

• “Calcification in the bones. It's rigid.”
  – Lynn Vavrek, on American politics (15:02)

• “The people who are paying attention and who are absolutely certain that Donald Trump must not return to power … If you love Joe Biden, that’s great. If you don’t, … that’s okay, too. In fact, you may be even more persuasive to voters who feel like you do…”
  – John Favreau (02:55)

• “I think there’s a 25% chance that this election’s a blowout and that Trump collapses.”
  – Simon Rosenberg, presenting hope beyond “doom posting” (21:35)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:08 – 02:55 The threat of a Trump second term: why the danger is real, not alarmist
• 03:58 – 07:01 Ron Brownstein breaks down what “red state” federal control could mean
• 12:03 – 17:29 Why the race will be close: polarization, calcification, and the end of the “incumbent advantage”
• 18:06 – 20:03 Pandemic malaise and declining confidence in both parties
• 20:54 – 24:36 Simon Rosenberg on the hopeful scenario and why grassroots organizing is more powerful than ever
• 25:34 – 27:28 Why “relational organizing” is now the most impactful kind of volunteer work
• 28:41 – 30:41 Deep canvassing, and the problem of “political hobbyism”
• 31:55 – 33:53 Who are the persuadables and why do they matter?
• 34:07 – 37:51 Using polls/focus groups to inform volunteer work; mobilizing base groups
• 38:14 – 38:52 Simon Rosenberg’s optimistic call to action: “It’s about the people of the United States deciding this country is not going down on their watch.”

Final Takeaways

• This election is existential. A second Trump term could see the destruction of political norms and the systemic imposition of far-right policies, even in “blue” states and cities.
• Polarization and calcification make the race tight—but not unwinnable. The electorate is stuck, but that means every small shift, every single voter, could tip the balance.
• Relational organizing is key. People trust the people they know; volunteers can wield more influence than ever before with conversations in their own networks.
• Don’t be a political hobbyist—be a power builder. The fate of the election is in the hands of those willing to do the work, not just consume the news.
• Everyone has a role to play. “Every issue, every ad, every voter and every person who gets involved” can make the difference, and the show aims to equip listeners with actionable insights to go out and fight for democracy.

For listeners:
If you want to make a difference, visit https://votesaveamerica.com and sign up for a volunteer shift. This show will equip you with the persuasive tools and up-to-date information you need. As Simon Rosenberg reminds us:

“At the end of the day, it’s about the people of the United States deciding that this country is not going down on their watch...” (38:14)