Podcast Summary: Runaway Country with Alex Wagner

Episode 2: The Trump Voters Who Are Sick of Trump

Date: May 26, 2024
Host: Alex Wagner (Crooked Media)
Main Guests: Jon Favreau, Sarah Longwell (Republican Voters Against Trump), Tim Miller (The Bulwark), Ben Wickler (Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair)

Overview

This episode dives deep into the mindset and motivations of a critical 2024 voting bloc: Republicans who have voted for Donald Trump in the past but are now deeply disillusioned. Through a roundtable discussion with longtime "Never Trump" Republicans Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller, and insight from Ben Wickler, the episode analyzes how to reach and persuade these "gettable" Trump voters—those who aren't the MAGA base, but have serious doubts or regrets.

The episode is both strategic and empathetic: it offers a granular look at who these voters are, what issues move them (or don’t), and how progressives and moderates alike can best engage them in conversations that might sway the outcome of this year’s election.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Are the Disaffected Trump Voters?

(05:17–07:34, 11:27–12:28, 27:38–29:55)

• Deep Republican Identity: Many of these voters have voted Republican all their lives and supported Trump once or twice—not "MAGA diehards," but people who hit a breaking point (often January 6th).
  • "They may have been staunch Republicans for a long time...now they have this deep feeling that he's crossed a line, that he's lost it, that he has broken with them in a way that they can never accept again." (Ben Wickler, 00:57)
• Varied Motivation: Some are motivated by constitutional or national security concerns (ex-military, veterans), others by policy shifts like Dobbs/abortion.
• Emotional and Social Stakes: Leaving Trump can be a huge deal socially and internally—a “soul” issue more than a political flip.
• Demographics: Many are older, white, "Reagan Republicans," and have a complex relationship with their party and conservative identity.
• “Double Haters”: Many both dislike Trump and Biden, making them susceptible to third-party candidates like RFK Jr.

2. The Power of Peer-to-Peer Messaging

(05:17–07:34)

• Virality ≠ Persuasion: Campaigns run by Longwell found that viral anti-Trump ads don't persuade this group; they’re more likely to trust ordinary people “like them.”
  • "They didn't trust Democratic messengers...so we went and found Republican voters who weren't gonna vote for Trump. We got them to make little video testimonials explaining why." (Sarah Longwell, 05:24)
• The most persuasive stories are those who openly admit it was hard to vote for Biden but did it anyway.

3. January 6th & Election Denial — Salience and Resistance

(12:48–15:33, 17:27–20:28, 20:46–29:55)

• January 6th is Crucial, but Nuanced: Even among double Trump voters, some believe the media exaggerated Jan 6, yet simultaneously blame Trump for fostering the situation.

  • "He could have done so much more on that day...to be the adult in the room." (Voter focus group, ~13:20)

• Freshness of Jan 6: It's an issue that surfaced after their last Trump vote, allowing them to say "this is new."

  • "They don't have to go back and say 'I was wrong'...This is new information since they voted for him last time." (Sarah Longwell, 14:26)

• Constant Reminders Needed: These voters need to be "re-triggered" emotionally to keep their anti-Trump sentiment high.

  • "They have to get re-reminded. I've lived through this for nine years. People in my life will message me when he does something terrible..." (Tim Miller, 17:27)

• Election Denial: There’s a subset—about 30%—who believe Biden won fairly, but they still harbor general mistrust about elections, citing minor fraud or bureaucracy without believing it “stole” the presidency.

  • "There was no evidence, there was only evidence of him tinkering around and trying to do illegal things..." (Sarah Longwell, 21:44)
  • These voters have more mixed media diets and are less plugged into pure partisan media ecosystems.

4. Voter Media Habits and How to Reach Them

(41:51–45:10)

• Skeptics of All Media: Many claim not to trust any single news outlet and say they “sample” across networks for a balanced view, though some exaggerate their habits for the sake of sounding informed (e.g., “I watch BBC”).
  • "I don't really trust anybody...I try to get multiple sources because there's usually a spin." (Focus Group, 41:51)
• Local News is Key: Genuine persuadables often consume more local than national cable news, which can open up new advertising strategies.

5. Barriers to Voting for Biden

(45:10–49:05)

• Age Dominates Concerns: Across groups, by far the biggest hurdle is Biden’s age and questions about his vigor—no ideology is mentioned as much as this.
  • "Even the ones who are deeply sympathetic to Joe Biden...I just get so worried when he talks and when he walks. Like, I want to make sure he's okay..." (Sarah Longwell, 45:34)
• "Old But Good" vs. "Lunatic Surrounded by Lunatics": The best counter-message is that Biden is maybe old, but trustworthy and surrounded by smart people, whereas Trump is perceived as erratic and surrounded by sycophants.
• Fear of Far Left is Overstated: Concerns about Biden being a “socialist” are driven as much by pundits as voters; in reality, it’s centrist and working-class minority voters where Biden is leaking support.

6. How the Trump Trials and Legal Issues Land

(30:42–37:12)

• Legal Proceedings Not a Dealbreaker for All: Many view the New York trial, and even the classified documents case, as overreach or “politically motivated,” though a conviction could be marginally impactful among persuadables.
  • "A conviction matters...you can tell me it's marginal, and I'll tell you, cool, because margins are going to decide this entire ballgame." (Sarah Longwell, 32:37)
• Acquittal Is Dangerous: An acquittal could deeply demoralize or complicate the ability to persuade these voters.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Voter Doubt and January 6
  "He could have done so much more on that day...to be the adult in the room..."
  (Voter, 13:20)

• On Messaging That Works
  "The more difficult it was for them [to vote for Biden], the more persuasive it was, because that's what a lot of Republicans were doing. They were grappling with it."
  (Sarah Longwell, 05:53)

• On Persuading Reluctant Relatives
  "If you believe that there's anything more than a zero percent chance that Donald Trump wants to become a dictator, you cannot vote for him. Vote for every other Republican that you want. ...You do have to worry that Donald Trump's gonna be a dictator."
  (Tim Miller, 49:24)

• On Peer-to-Peer Recruitment
  "Having [conversations] in a tender and open and curious way can pave the way for them to have further conversations...What happens for some of these voters is it's like squeezing through a keyhole and then they pop into themselves and feel like it's okay to try out new opinions."
  (Ben Wickler, 54:31)

• On the Emotional Toll
  "I want to make sure he's okay, I want to like help him. They like, you know, they can see them like reaching for him to steady him."
  (Sarah Longwell, 45:34)

Practical Takeaways & Advice for Reaching These Voters

1. Use Peer Messengers

• Testimonials from “Republicans like me” are much more persuasive than slick, viral ads or Democratic figures.

2. Don’t Dismiss Their Concerns

• Approach discussions with empathy. Don’t make someone feel guilty for past votes; make them feel welcome in the anti-Trump coalition.

3. Constantly Reinforce the Stakes

• Bring January 6th and Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 result to the forefront; repetition matters.

4. Local Media Is Underutilized

• Focus outreach on local TV, radio, and channels rather than cable news or viral social.

5. Don't Overhype the “Biden Problem”

• Age is a sticking point. Acknowledge it honestly, but emphasize competence and the “team” approach to governance.

6. Acceptance of an Imperfect Coalition

• The anti-Trump coalition may be “double haters” and unenthusiastic about Biden. The goal is to disqualify Trump and lower his support, even if it means votes for third-parties or leaving ballots blank.

7. Be Tender, Not Purist

• Approach with questions, not litmus tests, and be ready for long, patient conversations. The pathway out of Trump support is emotional as much as rational.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:57-02:21 | Ben Wickler on the psychological journey of ex-Trump voters
• 05:17-07:34 | Sarah Longwell on the Republican Voters Against Trump approach
• 11:27-12:28 | Difference between Biden 2020 voters and never-again Trumpers
• 12:48-14:26 | Focus group: Double Trump voters on January 6th
• 17:27-19:29 | Tim Miller on the need to "re-trigger" voters emotionally
• 20:46-22:27 | Election denial: nuances among persuadable GOP voters
• 27:38-29:55 | Salience of "Trump won’t leave" argument; why democracy and “risk” language resonates
• 30:42-37:12 | Trials, legal peril, and what charges might matter (or not) to swing voters
• 41:51-45:10 | Voter media diets—how they gather information and what outlets actually matter
• 45:10-49:05 | Barriers to Biden support; why the “old surrounded by good people” line works
• 49:24-52:16 | Crafting the pitch: Tim and Sarah’s closing arguments to the Trump-reluctant
• 53:18-55:31 | Ben Wickler: How to approach conversations and move people “through the keyhole”

Conclusion

This episode is a must-listen for anyone hoping to understand the complex, often conflicted Americans who may decide the 2024 election. The panel’s frank analysis offers both pragmatic advice for activists and deep empathy for voters wrestling with their identity and values. The focus is not on building a pro-Biden army, but on keeping the anti-Trump coalition energized, open, and effective—one tough conversation at a time.