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- [00:01]
Alex Wagner
Runaway country is brought to you by Ethos. I am trying to be a responsible parent and responsible parenting includes packing healthy lunches and planning for any eventualities. And one of them is the requirement and the necessity of getting a life insurance policy. That's what responsible parents do. In addition to making sure that children eat, you know, several servings of fruits and vegetables, it's making sure that there's a plan should the worst thing happen. Well, Ethos makes getting life insurance fast and easy, 100% online, you can get a quote in seconds, you can apply in minutes, and you can get same day coverage. There is no medical exam, you just answer a few simple health questions. You can get up to $3 million in coverage and some policies are as low as $30 a month and you will get your lowest rate from their network of trusted carriers. Ethos has 4.8 out of 5 stars on Trustpilot with over 4000 reviews. So take 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote@ethos.com Alex that is E T H O S.com Alex Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Sometimes you want to hear directly from the people at the center of the story on NPR's Newsmakers. They go face to face with the people who are shaping this moment. Hear NPR's biggest interviews featuring guests like Dave Chappelle, Jill Biden and Zoran Mamdani with the questions that matter and a push for real answers. Follow newsmakers wherever you listen to podcasts or watch on YouTube.
- [01:29]
Megyn Kelly
The 2026 FIFA World cup meal at McDonald's is underway with one of nine legendary cups in the lineup. Christian Pulisic, David Beckham, Lamine Yamal, Ronald Dinho, Thierry Henry, Son, Hyung Min, Alphonso Davies, Santi Jimenez and between the posts, it's Grimace. Get one of nine collectible cups with a FIFA World cup meal at participating
- [01:54]
Jonathan V. Last
McDonald's for a limited time while supplies last.
- [01:56]
Megyn Kelly
All rights reserved. 2026 McDonald's at FIFA World Cup 20
- [01:59]
Alex Wagner
shop the Sherwin Williams 4th of July sale and get 30% off paints and stains June 26th through July 6th. Whether you're refreshing your interior or exterior, we've got the colors to bring your vision to life. And with delivery, getting everything to your door is easier than ever. Shop online to have it delivered or visit your neighborhood Sherwin Williams store. Click the banner to learn more. Retail sales only. Some exclusions apply. See Store for details. Delivery available on qualifying orders. Hi everyone. President Trump is on the ropes. He has been trying to put A positive spin on his catastrophic war in Iran, which has killed thousands of civilians, weakened America, and done nothing to achieve Trump's stated goals. The cost of living here at home keeps getting more expensive as gas prices remain high and inflation continues unabated, sending Trump's approval rating plummeting. His immigration policy remains hugely controversial, with subhuman detention conditions that have prompted hunger strikes inside facilities. And congressional Republicans charged with carrying out Trump's most insane legislative requests appear maybe, just maybe, like they're fed up, especially since their majority is very much on the line. So, yeah, things are bad. And maybe the craziest part of all of this is that Donald Trump knows it. Here is Trump last week at the G7, explaining his attempt to end the war in Iran and sounding uncharacteristically humbled.
- [03:31]
Megyn Kelly
I've studied presidents. Some good, some bad, some great. Not too many are great, and some really bad. We had one just recently, and the one president I did not want to be was the late great Herbert Hoover. I didn't want that. And who knows what would have happened. But bad things happened.
- [03:53]
Alex Wagner
Hoover, of course, was the massively unpopular US President who is best remembered for the Great Depression. Trump's increasing weakness, and I'm not just talking physically, has not gone unnoticed even by Trump loyalists. Here's Megyn Kelly. MAGA is not what it was. MAGA is now this very, very small group of Trump diehard loyalists who have to love Mark Levin. And so that's by definition an increasingly tiny group. I guess I've been surprised to see how quickly it's shrunk down to something less formidable by far than it used to be. Side note, Mark Levin, the notorious Trump diehard, isn't too happy with the president either, if publicly criticizing the president's Iran deal is any indication of his enthusiasm. But if Trump allies are angry and disillusioned, look at what is happening inside his one time base. According to Reuters Ipsos polling this month, Trump's approval rating in rural America has dropped to a new low of 50%. We are talking red state America, folks. Places like Montana and Mississippi, a 50% approval rating. And then there's this. Between the last midterm Trump faced in 2018 and this year, blue collar white voters, the very core of Trump's coalition, have turned on him on by a whopping 60 points. Back then, working class white voters approved of Trump's management of the U.S. economy by 30 percentage points or even more. Now polls show those same voters disapproving by up to 30 points or more. According to Trump's most important audience, he has totally bungled the American economy, their most important issue. Trump's support is even cracking in the evangelical and born again Christian communities, which voted him back into office by a whopping 82% in 2024. According to CNN exit polling today, Trump's approval rating in this same demographic is only 52%. That is a 30 point drop. This all goes a long way in explaining why, according again to Reuters Ipsos, Trump is living in the proverbial basement with a national approval rating of about 35%. For Republicans to keep their majority, for them to have even a shot in 2028, the GOP will need to bring Trump's flock back into the fold and quickly. But they will also equally need to win back less partisan independents to recreate the broadness of the coalition that helped deliver Trump the White House in 2024. That would be the unlikely group of voters that left the Democratic tent that year to give Donald Trump another shot, including young white men, men of color, and an unusual coalition of health focused independence, better known as the Maha movement. The supporters of the Make America Healthy Again agenda, believers in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And this simple message.
- [06:48]
Megyn Kelly
Our children are now the unhealthiest, sickest children in the world. Don't you want healthy children?
- [06:58]
Alex Wagner
When he dropped out of the presidential race and accepted a position In Trump's cabinet, RFK Jr. S supporters overwhelmingly went with him in the hopes that Trump and the Republican Party would embrace Kennedy's ideas, including getting chemicals out of clothing, pesticides out of food and junk out of the hands of children, but also ending vaccine mandates and cracking down on what they see as the overt medication of Americans. The Maha faithful, many of them moms, put their faith in Donald Trump, who probably did not know what the pesticide glyphosate was before taking office, and whose staffers say his favorite meal is two Big Macs, two filet o fish sandwiches and a chocolate milkshake. I'm Alex Wagner and this week on Runaway Country, Trump's fracturing coalition and what it means for the health of the Grand Ole Party. We're going to dig deep into one of the cornerstones of Trump's space, the Maha movement, which now looks increasingly over the party and him.
- [07:59]
Hannah Dunning
I am free frickin pissed. Did President Trump just hand legal immunity to pesticide companies?
- [08:04]
Alex Wagner
The Republicans in Congress are working very
- [08:06]
Hannah Dunning
hard right now to give immunity to chemical manufacturers to provide them with this
- [08:12]
Alex Wagner
shield so that when we get sick from their chemicals, we will not be able to sue it is the most enormous slap in the face to Maha and all that we've worked for. If conservative podcaster Alex Clark, a regular at Turning Point USA conventions, if she has issues with the president, then, you know, it's bad. To get a closer look, we're going to be talking to Maha influencer Hannah Dunning, known online as the Clean Clothing Chick, about why she and so many of her fellow Maha moms voted for Trump, why they've lost faith in him, and what lies ahead. And then we are going to get into the bigger fracture with the bulwarks. Jonathan V. Last, who has no shortage of astute analysis about how this president has failed the country. But first, the inside scoop from Maha activist Hannah Dunning. Here's our conversation. Hannah, welcome to Runaway country. Let's get into it. You founded the Clean Clothing Chick, which is an online forum for research and news in terms of what chemicals are in American clothing, which is, I'm sure, like a horrifying list. What drew you to the Maha movement initially?
- [09:26]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah, you know, I think if you ask most people who sort of identify with Maha, they've had their own health journey. They've either had somebody in their family who's gotten sick or they themselves have experienced being sick. And that is exactly what happened to me. So I lost somebody very close to me to estrogen positive breast cancer. And then I myself went through a crazy health journey during my first pregnancy where my liver essentially stopped working and I had to deliver prematurely. We had a crazy NICU stay. So I was forced to attack the health question head on. I think if it weren't for those experiences, I would really be enjoying a very quiet life with not having to worry about the chemicals in our clothes and not having to try to fight against big industries to get them out. So I understand why this topic could be overwhelming and straight up depressing to most people, but when you've been directly impacted by feeling or being sick or loving somebody who's been sick, sometimes you don't have an option.
- [10:28]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, well, I think also people who think about their children, I mean, there's a lot of responsibility as a human being on planet Earth and sort of shouldering that responsibility to try and make it cleaner and better is perhaps not universally shared, but not not important. Did you when you so you're part of this movement that's very focused on chemicals, I would assume pesticides are in there, Big Ag, Big Pharma, et cetera, but runs adjacent to this other movement called maga. Where do you see I mean, where do you see the crossover between those two movements and the fault lines between them?
- [11:07]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah, look, I don't think President Trump brought RFK Jr on board because he wanted to get red dye 40 out of kids cereal. Like, I don't think anyone necessarily thinks that. I think he brought him on board because he understood what politicians have understood throughout history, which is sometimes it makes a lot of sense to bring the moderates on board, the independent independents on board. And he knew that by doing that, by bringing RFK Jr. On, who was obviously running as an independent, he could have a shot at getting them on his side. And that's exactly what happened. So I'm. I under. I think it's interesting that people are so surprised that this MAHA group is, you know, not happy with a lot of decisions that President Trump has made because they're independents, a lot of them are independent. So why are we surprised that they're voting and thinking and feeling like independents? A lot of them are not blindly Republican.
- [11:58]
Alex Wagner
Was it RFK's endorsement? Was it RFK bringing brought into the cabinet? When were you like, okay, I'm gonna support this guy or I'm gonna vote for this guy, even if I don't agree with everything he's talking about?
- [12:09]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah. You know, I feel like I'm a unique individual in the sense that I'm extremely independent. I really don't trust any politician ever until proven otherwise. There's, I think, a few I can count on my hands that I actually think have, have great motives and are doing the right things for me. Watching the Democrats bypass the primary and when they bypassed Bernie Sanders being a potential choice based on what the people wanted and when they just established Kamala as a representative no matter what, and they sort of like shoved that down our throat, I would say that's when I personally started being like, what is going on here? And by the way, I was going to vote for RFK Jr. And I think that I represent a decent amount of people who were a part of MAHA who were going to vote for him with complete distaste for super polarized two party system today. So I can't tell you exactly when the moment of being like, I'm done was, but I can tell you that it built up for a very, very long time. And to be clear, I detest both parties greatly.
- [13:17]
Alex Wagner
Well, let's talk about how it's worked out. I mean, tell me where you sit now when you think about the Trump administration and whether it has done what you wanted it to do.
- [13:30]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah, well, first and foremost, I'm focused on health, and part of health is absolutely the environment. And this is something that I want Republicans to take more seriously. And it's something that I'm actually seeing shift on a positive note at home and amongst normal people, not with politicians. People are starting to care about the environment because they're understanding that it's directly impacting their health, especially in places that are very Republican, like, for example, Cancer Alley right now, or the places in farming, rural farming communities. We see this in Iowa, too. Like, Iowa just rejected who everyone thought they were going to vote for as farm country, who is typically voted on behalf of Big Ag because Iowa has one of the highest cancer rates in our entire country. So they're starting to connect the dots between environment and health. And it's something that should have been connected a long time ago, but sometimes, again, takes people getting sick themselves to realize it. So when I see President Trump roll back PFA limitations in our water, that makes me want to flip tables. Are you kidding me? Or when he opens up, you know, sacred protected fishing waters in Hawaii on the same day that he has, you know, motocross and MMA fighters or whoever on the White House lawn, like, that's disrespectful. So I think that most people don't understand that Maha is incredibly diverse in belief. And, I mean, that exactly how it sounds. I think that would blow most people's minds. I think that they think Maha equals Maga, and that's simply not the case.
- [15:03]
Alex Wagner
You know, they have some letters in common, Maha and Maga, but, you know, I mean, I think there is some understanding that there's a very discreet set of goals and concerns that Maha has that center around the environment, that center around chemicals, Big ag, big pharmaceutical, healthcare, maybe in some cases. And you point out this administration, I mean, not only have they not taken those goals to heart, it's been sort of the opposite. Right. He's repealing landmark legislation and regulation relating to greenhouse gases emissions, methane limits, water quality, air quality, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, weakened protection for endangered species. I mean, the list goes on and on and on. And. And as you have seen that in the second administration, you said it makes you want to turn over tables. Can you elaborate on that?
- [15:53]
Jonathan V. Last
Like what?
- [15:54]
Alex Wagner
And. And what is the degree to which that feeling is shared with other people like you, who voted for Trump in the hopes that this was the dawn of a different kind of agenda?
- [16:04]
Hannah Dunning
Me, personally, I didn't necessarily think it was going to be the dawn of anything new. I was just Hoping we'd be able to get things done despite in the White House. Right. Like, I didn't again think that President Trump was all of a sudden just going to really deeply care about regenerative organic ag culture. But I was wondering what potentially we could get done with the momentum that I clearly saw happening. And I think that that would be the same for a lot, excuse me, of MAHA advocates. I think that most of us are pretty upset right now, but I will also say that most of us are working also very hard right now. So the encouraging good news is that on the House floor, on the Senate floor, and in state races, MAHA is making an incredible difference. But it's no thanks to our politicians in terms of who' in the White House. It's thanks to American families, mothers, parents and local representatives. Like, I'll give you an example in April that was really, really fascinating and is a clear example of what Maha is actually doing beyond what we're seeing on social media or in comment sections. And in April, we found out that Big Chemical Bear Monsanto was trying to pass a chemical liability shield on the House floor. We got wind of it. We, meaning members of maha, who have somewhat of an influence on social media, and we flew to D.C. to expose them. We had hundreds of thousands of mothers across the United States calling their representatives, who by the way, they, most of them voted into office. We had Republicans calling Republicans telling them, if you vote on behalf of Big Chemical, I will make it my full time job come November to get you out of office. That's what MAHA really means. We are holding our politicians accountable.
- [17:45]
Alex Wagner
Are you holding RFK Jr. Accountable? Like, I guess? Let's look at the example of glyphosate. Right? So Trump issued an executive order that increases the production of glyphosate, which is a pesticide, and grants the company that makes it immunity from liability. RFK testified on Capitol Hill and defended that and said it was not necessary for national security. First of all, how'd that make you feel? And has your enthusiasm for him diminished?
- [18:13]
Hannah Dunning
Listen, I think the real question is who's really making and calling the shots. I think that our country has a corporation problem. I think Big Chemical and other large corporations are calling the shots. And you can look to what happened in Kentucky right now. Thomas Massie is one of the very few MAHA representatives calling MAGA out. So what did MAGA do? They gave $11.2 million to the person running against him, making it the the largest funding difference in American history. Right. So I think that's what RFK Jr. Is up against. I know people who work with him almost every day. Personally, I think he's a good guy. I actually think he's more of a Democrat in a lot of ways. I think that you can look to
- [18:55]
Alex Wagner
his career, he is a Kennedy, to see that.
- [18:57]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah, right.
- [18:58]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [18:59]
Hannah Dunning
So I think that if I could get him to take like a truth pill, I think that he would be very honest about his real beliefs about glyphosate and all those kinds of things. But I think his hands are tied because we are up against the props problem of having big chemical calling all the shots. Trump appointed Nancy Beck from the acc. The ACC is the largest lobbying arm for chemical companies in our country. He appointed her to the epa. So what I'm saying is we were angry when RFK backed the executive order to protect chemical companies, but guess what he did. Two weeks later he made the rounds. He was in Texas promoting regenerative organic agriculture. I think that's his true self. I just think that with our current system and the way it's set up, there's really not much you can do against the big dogs calling the shots.
- [19:46]
Alex Wagner
So it sounds like you still believe in him and his principles, but you're pretty disillusioned, unsurprisingly, with the presence of big corporate money in American politics, which I think is a pretty bipartisan concern. I wonder how much you're disillusionment with the way that the administration has either taken orders from corporate America or aligned itself with corporate America. How much of your disillusionment with this administration on that front extends to the Republican Party on whole. I know you're an independent, but as you're like, you're thinking about these midterms and maybe even 20, 28, like, what are you looking for and how much are you going to try and punish. I don't want to use that word in like an aggressive form. Yeah, okay, fine. How much do you want to punish the people who are associated with this kowtowing to corporate interest?
- [20:37]
Hannah Dunning
I have kids. I want to punish them to the full extent. I want them out of office. If they voted for something that harms my children, I want them out of office. I don't care if they're red, I don't care if they're blue. If they come for my kids, I'm going to come for them. So what does that look like for me? Come midterms in November, I will literally have a spreadsheet, state by state, of what representatives voted for, what. And by the way, I think if more Americans actually put that thought into voting versus this, this visual representation of what party means, what that we have, I think we'd see a massive shift in American politics, because I would tell you, based on voting policies, most Democrats are not actually Democrats and most Republicans are not who they say they are. And it comes down to how they vote. Our politicians have a luxury of voting in private very often, and it's not because their voting records aren't public. It's not because we don't have access to them. It's that the American people aren't watching. That's a problem. That's something I think we should be fixing. And I actually think social media is a really, really powerful way to do that, is let's shine light in dark places. I'm talking about incumbents who have voting records. Right. I can tell you, for the people who are currently in office, I'll be going on, on their action versus their words. We're done with the whole word thing.
- [21:55]
Alex Wagner
Do you think Democrats can win your vote?
- [21:57]
Hannah Dunning
My vote is always up for sale. And I wish more people would talk like that. I really do. Even if you vote Democrat, from the minute you're able to vote at 18 all the way till you die, your vote should always be up for sale. There should always be a chance. You should always be holding your party accountable. And in fact, you should be holding your party more accountable, because if you genuinely believe that your ideals are going to change our country for the better and move it in the right direction, and you want to make sure that those people aren't using and abusing, you know, your title in order to manipulate your ideals. So my vote's always up for sale?
- [22:31]
Alex Wagner
Always for grabs. Yeah, always. All right, well, I got one more question for you, just because I've been thinking about it a lot, and I'm. I would love to get someone who's concerned about health and the environment to weigh in on this. The reflecting pool is like, there's, like, all these toxic algae blooms happening, right? And they're like, dumping hydrogen peroxide in the water, and then you see, like, birds swimming in it and, like, people walking around breathing the fumes in. Do you have thoughts on this? Like, does it disturb you as much as it disturbs you?
- [23:05]
Hannah Dunning
Listen, I can't even go there. You know what I'm focusing on? This is what I'm focusing on literally today. Representative Anna Paulina Luna, Republican out of Florida, hardcore Republican, by the way.
- [23:15]
Alex Wagner
Yes, we're aware.
- [23:17]
Hannah Dunning
And Representative Shelley Pingree out of Maine Hardcore Democrat, huge environmentalist, just partnered up today to try to pass a bill banning paraquat in our country. That chemical has been banned and across most of Europe, it's a known carcinogen. It impacts every single one of us in our food systems. And they are linking arms to try to pass this just the same way they did to try to keep big chemical from getting a pesticide liability shield. So, listen, yeah, I think it's what we're seeing is silly in more areas than one, but I'm hyper focused right now on showing that bipartisanship can work and it's the only way forward for our country.
- [23:56]
Alex Wagner
I appreciate that statesmanlike answer. Hannah. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's probably not great for the environment to be dumping large quantities of hydrogen peroxide in public.
- [24:07]
Hannah Dunning
No, listen, absolutely not. I'm just not losing brain cells right now to stop. But I agree with you. I think it's silly. I feel like it's very embarrassing, but I can't even go there.
- [24:21]
Alex Wagner
There are more pressing concerns. I agree with you.
- [24:24]
Hannah Dunning
I can't even go there.
- [24:26]
Alex Wagner
Hannah. It's really, you know, the point of all this is to better understand how people are thinking about this particular American moment. You guys are right in the center of it. Your votes are going to be very important, both in the midterms and in 2028. So it's great to get some perspective on how you're. You're thinking about the landscape, and I really appreciate you taking the time.
- [24:44]
Hannah Dunning
Thanks. You too.
- [24:45]
Alex Wagner
After the break, we will put all of this into context with the bulwarks. Jonathan V. Last Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry Me. You know that feeling when your career looks fine on paper but something still feels off? Maybe you're stuck or burned out. Maybe you're ready for a bigger move. Or maybe you just want clarity on what is coming next. That is where today's sponsor, Strawberry Me, comes in. Strawberry Me matches you with a real career coach, carefully selected based on your goals and personality and professional background. These aren't random Internet gurus. They are coaches on the platform who average sales. 16 years of experience across 900 companies and 37 industries. And most have been leaders, founders or executives themselves. It is not just one conversation. You meet one on one over video. You build a personalized plan together, and you stay connected between sessions through messaging. When real life challenges crop up, most people hit a meaningful milestone within four to six sessions, whether that's landing a new role, getting unstuck, building confidence or finally taking action on something they've been putting off for years. Visit Strawberry Me and start with a coaching trial today. Tell them it was Runaway country that sent you and get 50% off your first session. Runaway country with Alex Wagner is brought to you by Wild Alaskan Company. I get scared sometimes when I go to the fish counter because I don't know how to tell what's been just caught and what's, you know, right on the verge of smelling pretty stinky. Wild Alaskan Company offers the best way to get Wild caught. High quality seafood delivered to your door on your schedule. Each Wild Alaskan box comes with individually portioned filets that are vacuum sealed, easy to prepare and great for any meal, whether it's a quick weeknight dinner or a special occasion. All fish is quick frozen fresh from the Alaskan waters, which helps log in its freshness, texture, flavor and key nutrients like Those all important Omega 3s fish you can trust with no GMOs, antibiotics or other additives. Every order supports sustainable harvesting practices and Alaskan fishermen whose history is tied to the region and practice. I am really in love with the salmon. Surprise, surprise. It's so delicious. I've been cooking it roasted. But now that grill season is here, I'm going to be doing a morning marinade and then throwing that puppy right on while I drink a NA beer. That's my life, baby. Wild Alaskan Company is so confident that their fish is the best that they offer 100% satisfaction and money back guarantee. So you can try your first box risk free. Go to wildalaskan.com Alex for $35 off your first order of premium wild caught seafood that is wild alask alaskan.com Alex for $35 off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. What a great day this is. As much as the country seems to be circling the drain, there are bright spots that the universe offers us. And the presence of JBL on Runaway country is one such bright spot. Welcome back my friend.
- [27:41]
Jonathan V. Last
You're really reaching to the bottom of the barrel if this is your bright spot.
- [27:45]
Alex Wagner
Nope.
- [27:45]
Jonathan V. Last
It shows.
- [27:46]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [27:46]
Jonathan V. Last
How we're doing.
- [27:47]
Alex Wagner
Hi Bar. You are part of the illustrious two Timers Club on this podcast.
- [27:52]
Jonathan V. Last
Wow. When do I get my jacket?
- [27:55]
Alex Wagner
Jacket? It's the end of the year. We gotta get your measurements. We were guessing and then we thought let's fit them out right. We need them in the right size jacket, so stand by on that. You'll probably be a member of the Three Timers Club by the time it arrives. But we're grateful to have you on the show today.
- [28:10]
Jonathan V. Last
Fingers crossed.
- [28:11]
Alex Wagner
I first want to ask you a sort of big picture question. You're good at these. Since we are only a week away from the semi quincentennial of these great United States, how are you feeling about our more perfect union today?
- [28:27]
Jonathan V. Last
Not great, Bob. I mean, we had a good run, wasn't always perfect. We overcame a lot, threw off the yoke of the British monarchy and eventually got rid of slavery, and then 100 years later, sort of got to civil rights rights and fended off totalitarianism in Europe and help make the world free for democracy and then decided to call it a day because it's expensive. So, you know, I don't know.
- [29:02]
Alex Wagner
So the opening of the Obama Presidential Library did nothing to restore your belief in hope and change?
- [29:06]
Jonathan V. Last
No, no. So this is, I, I think that I'm basically where my, my colleague and your friend Tim Miller is, which is. So I'm short term, short term pessimistic, medium term optimistic, long term, very pessimistic. And so the short term meaning, like the next two years, I think it's going to be very bad. We're going to have a very, very bad two years. The amount of damage Trump can continue to do as he just sort of unspools in front of us, both physically and mentally and emotionally, is enormous. In the long run, I think it is possible that we get a free and fair election in 2028, which is not a sure thing, but I think it's possible, maybe a 50, 50 chance. And so maybe, you know, maybe you wind up with a Democrat as president, maybe you even get a Democratic trifecta in Congress, although that's really hard to do. But in the long run, I think our institutions have been exposed as being incredibly weak. And it is not clear to me that there is the will to attempt to repair them or reform them. And so, like, you know, I just don't see why we won't wind up back in this place over and over again.
- [30:27]
Alex Wagner
Lessons are not going to be learned, you predict, in 2028.
- [30:31]
Jonathan V. Last
I mean, do you, do you think they will be?
- [30:33]
Alex Wagner
I don't know. I guess I'm a little bit more optimistic about the degree to which the alarm bells continue ringing after Trump leaves the building. I think there are some people that understand that structural change is needed and really regarding institutions is the order of the day. But I mean, everybody's mind in politics, everybody's Hindsight is like 10, 20, and people can gin up enthusiasm and concern for like five seconds before they get totally subsumed by their own narcissism.
- [31:10]
Jonathan V. Last
So, but Alex, we can't keep refighting the battles of the past. We have to look forward and focus on the kitchen table issues that real voters care about. Why would we want to get dragged into partisan fighting about the Supreme Court or the filibuster or making Washington D.C. a state? I, I, I don't know what they're going to say.
- [31:34]
Alex Wagner
I, the politicians will. But I do think the conversation around both the Supreme Court statehood, AKA the Senate map and the filibuster is that's a real conversation that, that actual voters and activists and organizers are having. And I'm, I don't know, I'm like slightly more hopeful. Don't color me an optimist, but maybe slightly more than you and Tim, which is a pretty low bar, let's admit. It's not high bar. Yes, high bar. To clear, to be. Anyway, I want to talk to you a little bit about what the sort of prospects are for the GOP and Trump in the coming weeks and months. I mean, we're coming off of a season of enormous discontent with this president. The polling which you and I have talked about, I've talked about ad nauseam, I'm sure, as you have. But it continues to astound me how badly he's doing in all corners, not just the approval rating which is in the toilet, but really when you dig deep into the specific, you know, parts of the coalition that delivered him the White House. Just to recap what we mentioned in our lead script, his approval rating among evangelicals, evangelical Christians, fell to 52%, which was compared to 61% last August. That same poll found Trump's support among rural Americans has dropped to a new low of 50%. That's a 10 point drop since just last year. We're talking like Montana and Mississippi here. White working class voters, this is probably the worst number for him, disapprove of his management of the American economy by anywhere from 14 to 30 points. They supported his management of the economy in the last midterm he faced in 2018 by net positive 30 points. Now it's net negative. So it's like a 60 point drop among white working class voters, non college educated blue collar workers. My question to you is, do you think we have reached the basement? Do you think Trump has reached the basement? And how baked in is this in the medium term?
- [33:36]
Jonathan V. Last
Those are two excellent questions. I don't know the answer to either. Let me talk about how we should think about the questions since I can't give you an answer. So are things going to start to kind of improve a little bit? Yes. Now when will they start to. I mean, he did his surrender in Iran, which he probably should have done in April. I mean, he should never have gone to war in Iran or never.
- [34:03]
Alex Wagner
Yes, right.
- [34:04]
Jonathan V. Last
But let's just, you know, like, look, if you just assume that, like, that is a thing that you can't undo, he should have surrendered sooner. The longer he waited, the worse it got. It will take several months for gas prices to begin to go down because there's a whole big air gap in the, in the supply pipeline. Once prices start coming down, the new baseline cost for oil is going to be higher because there will be tolls or management fees or something coming through the strait for basically a third of the world's oil. And this new reality that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and not international law is going to require drastic rethinking in insurance and reinsurance rates. And so just the base cost of transiting oil is going to become more expensive. But do you think that some portion of the American people would look at, at $3.90 gasoline and say, huh, it's not 470 anymore. That's good, we're going in the right direction. Like, I don't think everybody in America is going to think that's okay. But I think a bunch of those numbers you were just talking about, evangelical voters, white working class voters, people who are looking to give him any possible benefit of the doubt. I think it's possible that they look at that stuff and they say, ah, ah, it's turning around. And the reason I say is because that's what they did during COVID Every time things looked a tiny bit optimistic during COVID they would not focus on the fact that a million people were dead. They'd be like, but look, it's a little bit better than it was when everything was horrible. And so the question then is, on what is the timeline of this and do we start seeing improvements in late August, early September, or does it not really start manifesting until early October? Maybe it doesn't manifest until after the election. And then we start talking about, okay, well, how much does it need to move? Because the House, I think, is pretty baked. I don't think Republicans can hold the
- [36:10]
Alex Wagner
House
- [36:12]
Jonathan V. Last
minus the sort of seat theft that they've done in Florida and Texas and a bunch of places. They would have lost a lot of seats. They're not going to lose that many. And if Democrats get like a 12 seat cushion, it would be enormous. It would be a really big win for them. But is it even possible to get the Senate? I don't know. I think it is. It is at least a coin flip that Republicans hold the Senate. And so, you know, I don't know, like it's. What do you think?
- [36:44]
Alex Wagner
I wonder. I guess I wonder. I think it's helpful to compare it to Covid. But I do think the difference between obviously then and now is this is a problem. You could argue Trump's mismanagement of the early outbreak contributed to mass death, and I would argue that. But this is more directly his fault in the American public. The Iran war was his choice. The rising skyrocketing gas prices, energy crisis around the globe, fertilizer shortage, that's on Trump. And voters and respondents to polls recognize that. Right. This is his making. And even if things, and maybe I'm just trying to find a positive in this, but even if gas prices go down 10 cents a gallon, 15 cents a gallon, I just wonder if there is something fundamentally broken in the trust because this was such a war of choice. Because he lied about the Epstein files, because on these sort of central issues, I promise not to get involved in any more foreign wars. He lied to the American public and revealed himself to be someone who doesn't particularly care about the American public or care about the fact that he lied. So I just, I guess maybe that maybe that's giving too much credit to people's kind of moral compasses being the thing that directs them and their support in any election year. But I kind of wonder if something has broken inside the coalition. I mean, just for the sake of discussion, like the evangelical vote. And his cratering support inside the evangelical movement is interesting to me because rural voters, you can understand, they're driving more, they're more subject to the sort of increased costs of relating from Trump's idiocy around tariffs. Same with working class voters, who. For whom affordability is a central issue. But evangelicals, like, was it the Jesus meme? Like what particularly, what was the betrayal there? And if it was the Jesus meme, that sort of seems like something you don't get back, that seems like a trust that's broken in the real.
- [38:40]
Jonathan V. Last
So maybe, and I mean, the thing that I'm interested in is the extent to which there is an America first schism, right? I mean, there, there were people like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker and all these people who, who broke with Trump over Iran because it wasn't America first. And I would have thought that he couldn't get those back, but there are signs that he might be breaking with Israel that might. I know some of those people back. Right. I mean, if. If Trump has a hard fork with Netanyahu in Israel, which, I mean, I've written about this, like, tried to be very careful because I don't want to sound like a crazy person, but I think it's very possible.
- [39:22]
Alex Wagner
Oh.
- [39:22]
Jonathan V. Last
That we wind up in a place where Israeli politics, like Israeli political opinion and public opinion of Trump craters so drastically that any aspiring politician in Israel has to be anti Trump, which Trump won't tolerate. Which he will then take to mean, like, I'm done with Israel. Does that start to win back some of the people who broke with him over Iran? I think it could, right? I mean, they then think, well, you know, it was all Israel. Israel's the one that got him into that war and he was trying to do right by them. But, you know, he's now. Now he's with us. I think there are ways out for him, is what I'm saying. And the. The other thing is, I think it is possible that this war will have never happened by November. Yeah, totally have never happened. Really hard for a lot of numbers, you know.
- [40:12]
Alex Wagner
That is so fucking crazy.
- [40:14]
Jonathan V. Last
So much.
- [40:14]
Alex Wagner
I mean, he's betting you talked about the.
- [40:16]
Jonathan V. Last
It's never happened.
- [40:18]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, well, I mean, but the thing about tariffs, though, is that people really felt that. I mean, that is the other component. It's like people practically felt the effects of this war, which is the only reason Trump paid any attention to it right after it didn't really work out that you could decapitate the head of the Iranian regime. Then you had to actually get into a war and be tactical and. Or diplomatic. He was like, uh, fucking. But then once he started feeling the domestic effects of that, namely rising gas prices, he started giving a shit and then was like, I guess we gotta cut bait. More from jbl, right after a quick break. Runaway country is brought to you by Blissey. I had no idea that my cotton sheets were, like, creating frizz and wrinkles and sleep creases until I switched to Blissey. You can get better hair in a daze. The sleep pillows reduce frizz and breakage and they preserve color and style. They're made with 22 moms 6A grade 100% pure mulberry silk, which is naturally cooling and breathable and hydrating and hypoallergenic. It's dermatologist tested and recommended these things are fully machine washable, womp womp and there are new Wicked and Harry Potter designs. There's a Zodiac collection for all you fellow sages out there. Plus Blissey offers matching sleep maps. I am partial to mine in a big way. Bonnets and crease preventing scrunchies. I love the sleep mask because I don't like any light in my room at all and that sleep mask. Boy does it feel good. I highly recommend because you are a listener, blissey is offering 60 nights risk free plus an additional 30% off when you shop@blissy.com Alex that is B L-I-S-S-Y.com A L E X and use code Alex to get an additional 30% off. Your skin and hair will thank you Runaway country is brought to you by Common Power. You know that feeling you get when you're listening to your favorite political podcast, Runaway country, wink wink and you hear a story that urges you to step up and be part of the solution. That feeling is the essence of Common Power. Whether it's accountability for our political leaders, the impacts of AI on the environment, or the fact that everything is so damn expensive. Winning the House and the Senate is essential to solving these issues. Since 2018, Common Power has been the organizing force for training and deploying volunteers to door knock for Democrats in over 20 battleground states in over 50 races this year alone. Their teams are driven by next generation leaders and we need your support to scale and fund their travel. If you are watching this, you are probably well aware of how pivotal these elections are and no matter what state you're in, this is your opportunity to do more. For those of you who refuse to sit this moment out, you can donate to common power@commonpower.org crooked and help them take back power in Congress. To that end the schism between America Firsters and the neocons like John Potterettes who somehow found themselves, like, I guess, in Trump's ear again. Let's talk about what happened last week with Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson vis a vis Trump's white flag for Iran. Let's first play if you would, Megyn Kelly speaking with the Vice President of The United States, aka the guy with the hot potato in his lap, J.D. vance about how he intends to bring America Firsters back to the kitchen, back to the table to sup with Trump. It's been kind of civil worry over on the conservative team since this whole thing got launched and the non interventionalist right feels very betrayed, very betrayed by it. Whether you agree with that They've been betrayed or not.
- [43:54]
Hannah Dunning
Mr. Vice President, what do you say to those people?
- [43:56]
Megyn Kelly
Well, what I'd say to them is one, I think you can walk through all the ways in which this has led to a good place for the United States of America. And I'd ask them not to sort of view this purely through the filter. I know a lot of these folks are frustrated with the role that Israel has in all this. We can talk about that, but don't look at it from the lens of what is it that different people think about it. What do you think about it? Like fundamentally they're against it. Look at where we are right now. And I think you can make the best argument that where we are right now is a good place for the United States of America. And again, if we transform the Middle
- [44:30]
Alex Wagner
east, what else do you got?
- [44:31]
Megyn Kelly
This was fundamentally worth it.
- [44:32]
Alex Wagner
Okay, what did they think of it? They're against it. This is good for America. What else you got? I mean, props to Megyn Kelly just in that moment. That's the only time I'll give Megyn Kelly props. You think that this is going to ultimately be forgotten? Forgiveness never have happened. I mean, if, if he makes inroads and breaking from Israel.
- [44:52]
Jonathan V. Last
I think it might. I think it might. This is, you know, again, I can see a bunch of different ways this could go. I think the most likely of those ways is probably like we just move on. I mean, Trump is going to, a lot of people are, are fixated on the memorandum of understanding and the timelines about how everything is going to kicked down the road and will take forever. And that's all true. The negotiation will be dragged up. As far as the United States is concerned, we are done in Iran.
- [45:22]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [45:23]
Jonathan V. Last
And like Kamala said, we are never going back. Trump wants no part of this. He's moving on to his Big America 250 celebration. We'll never hear him talk about Iran again.
- [45:37]
Alex Wagner
Well, yeah, I think that they could be testing nukes with like Kim Jong Un, like just co branded nukes in Pyongyang. And Trump wouldn't even say anything about it. Like you were. I think you're completely 1000% right when you say he's just looking for plausible deniability on their Iranian enrichment and nuclear ambitions. And he's found, I guess he thinks that gas prices three, $3.75 a gallon. Gas gives him that deniability.
- [46:01]
Jonathan V. Last
He can live with that. Yeah, I think that's right.
- [46:04]
Alex Wagner
What do you think about Tucker? I think like Megyn Kelly has like the backbone of wet spaghetti. Like, I wouldn't depend on her for any sort of to be any kind of arbiter of ethics. Tucker seems excited to be a naysayer and has been for months. Maybe because he's gonna run himself. I'm not sure what I mean, I think they're machinations that we probably don't understand that are leading to this behavior. But here's Tucker on the deal, and I know we're kind of like beating this drum a lot, but I wonder how what you think this portends for his fairly consistent criticism of the administration.
- [46:42]
Megyn Kelly
Paragraph 4. Immediately upon signing this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Retreat. Pull your troops out. Get your warships out of this area. Stop hassling us. That's not a victory, that's a surrender. That's retreats, pullback. This is a loss. This is, by the way, the reason that you wouldn't want to start this war in the first place, because it could only end as it has ended.
- [47:12]
Alex Wagner
You speak for all of us. TUCKER Carlson. I don't think he. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't see him coming back into the. I don't think. I don't see him coming back into the tent. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm wrong. I think he thinks it's opportune for him to be outside. And I think he's. If he has, if he has a shred Israel. Right.
- [47:34]
Jonathan V. Last
That's right. I mean, at that point, you don't want to be alienating Trump because you've finally gotten what you've always wanted. Right. You have moved the Republican Party off of the Israel spot, which is what a lot of people like Tucker and J.D. vance, frankly, have wanted for a very long time. And I mean, did you see JD talking about, like, you know, you're a country of 9 million people. You know, you can't just run around killing your way out of your national security problems. And you have. There is one leader in the entire world who doesn't hate you guys. Why are you trying to hurt. You know what I mean? Like, this is.
- [48:11]
Alex Wagner
No, yeah. And Trump, too, trump at the G7,
- [48:13]
Jonathan V. Last
very open warfare between the Americans and the Israelis. And if the Trump establishment turns on Israel, there is no other constituency in American politics left who's going to come to their aid. Like the Democratic Party saw. I was going to say Joe Biden in the back. Right. Because. Because The Israeli government wanted Trump. The. The America first base of the Republican Party has always hated Israel. I mean, so, I don't know. I think blaming Israel and blaming Netanyahu for all of this will be a really convenient thing for Trump to do. And if he does that, a lot of the people who've been criticizing Trump from the isolationist right, I think will want to consolidate that gain.
- [49:02]
Alex Wagner
What happens to Sheldon Adelson?
- [49:04]
Jonathan V. Last
We don't need your money. Go away. I mean, I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this won't ever happen. I mean, this is. Trump's obeisance to Israel has been mystifying to me for a couple years now because it's like the one place in which the relationship isn't transactional, so far as we know. You know, like, he's not. The Qataris gave him a jet, Right. That's why he's nice to Qatar. And the Saudis gave Jared $2 billion or whatever they gave him. That's why he's nice to Saudis. Israel has just basically created political headaches for Trump, and Trump has stayed true blue with them. And I never quite understood why. And so maybe he won't cut them loose. But what is interesting to me is, again, you got to look at this from the Israeli perspective. Trump just looking at the polling on this. The Israelis hate Trump.
- [49:57]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [49:57]
Jonathan V. Last
Well, they hate this deal and they also hate Trump.
- [49:59]
Alex Wagner
His approval rating in Israel has cratered
- [50:01]
Jonathan V. Last
30 points since the end of the year. Like 20, 30 points. And it's going to be worse the next time. The next round of polls we get will be even worse. And so it could be that you end up in a position where if you're a politician on the make in Israel, you've got to become anti Trump, Trump, and Trump won't tolerate that, you know, So I don't know. I don't know.
- [50:19]
Alex Wagner
I don't know. It'll be really. Well, the other thing is, Trump's not running for president again. He's got a shepherd. Well, I mean, who knows, right? Take that with a fistful of salt. But, like, if you're a Senate Republican and you're, you're your president, the head of your party is leading you towards a break with Israel. That is a scary proposition for a lot of Senate gop. Like, really fucking scary to them. Yeah. Do you think Trump knows how bad things are for him and the party? I guess I ask because he said something amazing that Chris Hayes and I talked about on his podcast. Trump said at the G7 last week, I didn't want to become Herbert Hoover. Like, first of all, you know, you know who Herbert Hoover is. Congratulations. Good job. Did they have a picture of him in gold leaf on the wall with all the other people? Just kidding. But secondly, some amount of humility, some amount of an indication that he understands that his presidency was turning, it is turning pear shaped. But I kind of wonder the degree to which that concern is truly in his lizard brain. What do you think? I know this is all pure speculation.
- [51:26]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah. Total speculation. I don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party.
- [51:31]
Alex Wagner
No.
- [51:33]
Jonathan V. Last
Except insofar as the success or failure of the Republican Party makes his life easier or harder. And so he would like, all things being equal, he would like Senate Republicans to hold the Senate because that's then one other set of hearings and investigations he doesn't have to bother not complying with. But as for him, I find it hard to believe that Trump really worries that he's ever in danger. I mean, just think about his. He has been one step ahead of the law for 80 years. He was convicted of felonies and he got off from it.
- [52:17]
Alex Wagner
Yeah.
- [52:17]
Jonathan V. Last
The Supreme Court invented a rule to keep him out of jail. He attempted a coup, and not only was he not convicted of impeachment, but the voters just sent him back to the White House. He presided over Covid, a million Americans died. Nobody cares. Nobody cares. And he's going to say, what, because gas got expensive for four months, I'm going to lose it all? No, I just, from his perspective, I just think he believes, rightly or wrongly, that his hold over 38, 42% of the country is so total. Right.
- [52:57]
Alex Wagner
But that's not going to win. That doesn't win him. That doesn't win the party elections. Right. Like, he does have the strength.
- [53:01]
Jonathan V. Last
Doesn't win the party elections, but it's enough for him to hold power. Right. I guess you have that. Again, in order to start really being in danger of being ousted through impeachment. Right. You got to be at, like the high 20s or the very low 30s. And in order to start playing, like, real constitutional hardball around things like, like, we're not going to seat House victors because we're going to force the Supreme Court to rule on this because we're going to say, well, they were elected in DEI districts which are unconstitutional or something like that. I think if he's at 40%, he thinks, yeah, okay, well, we can work with that. That's enough to build on.
- [53:42]
Alex Wagner
I think we need to start approaching our thinking we need to start thinking about Trump as someone who, given what you just outlined, has almost a mystical, supernatural confidence in his ability to get lucky and to stay on top. I mean, and that was really driven home to me when I read this political reporting that his number one advisor, his psychiatrist, is Boris Epstein, who we should just start referring to as Rasputin. He's like a Rasputin like figure. I'll read some highlights from this. Epstein, the President's senior personal counsel, speaks with the boss so often that Trump sometimes puts him on speakerphone without telling others in the room. Epstein is one of the most influential people in Washington, not just because he's listening in, but because Trump listens to him as well. He's like my psychiatrist, Trump has joked, referencing how frequently he talks to Epstein, who typically offers such enthusiastic support that it is like therapy for the President. If he is seeing Boris Epstein and his personal therapist, that's all you need to know about his interest in being strategic, tethered to reality, aware of the facts. I mean it is like, it's like, is it Tsar Nicholas who is and Alexandra who are listening to Rasputin? This is the level of intentional self deceit that we're dealing with here.
- [55:06]
Jonathan V. Last
Or it's a level of just total self confidence and a belief. I mean this was the church he grew up going to in New York. Was. I forget the name of the guy there who wrote the Power of Positive Thinking. I think it was Peel. I could be wrong, guys. If I've gotten that wrong, I'm sorry. But, but it's, you know, one of those real self helpy. You can manifest your will in the world by thinking things into existence. And Trump has always really believed that, that and the world has basically worked out like that for him. Like, I just don't see why at age 80 he would stop believing that all this stuff is possible and that he.
- [55:44]
Alex Wagner
Oh, I think it's gotten worse. I think, but I think it's gotten worse and he has a team of like spiritual enablers that are helping delude him into, I mean, maybe not deluding. I mean maybe he doesn't deluding, but
- [55:55]
Jonathan V. Last
he can get away with it.
- [55:56]
Alex Wagner
But keeping him unaware of the I think real peril. I mean, I think we disagree on just how treacherous it could be for him in the coming years, but part of that depends on what happens in November. But also, I mean, I kind of want to get your thoughts on Senate Republicans, right, who are just the great embarrassment of our democracy just completely becucking themselves for this President John Thune in particular, who has to find out by dint of Truth Social whether or not there are gonna be nominations hearings. I actually, I know my day is bad when I have multiple Truth Social windows tabs open. Like I had the same Truth Social message open three different times. Cause I was trying to understand what the fuck he was saying about the Save America act being tied to FISA reauthorization and Jay Clayton's nomination being scuttled so Bill Pulte can be DNI for forever. I don't know, to the end of this year.
- [57:01]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah.
- [57:02]
Alex Wagner
John Thune is asked and is like, you know, I don't know. I don't know. I don't really know what's happening.
- [57:07]
Jonathan V. Last
So I, I mean, it is possible that you've got a bunch of lame deck, lame duck Republicans who are super duper double mad at Trump because he cost them their careers like Cassidy and Cornyn, and it's possible that they would really butch up here. But I don't know. I mean, there's a first time for everything. But on the other hand, I am always wary of saying, well, but this time will be different.
- [57:37]
Alex Wagner
No, you're right. I mean, we should once burn twice shy, or 16 times burn twice shy.
- [57:41]
Jonathan V. Last
Sometimes it's. Sometimes it is different. Right. Another thing Trump has been good about is sacrificial lambs like Matt Gae Gates. Right. Remember the Matt Gaetz nomination?
- [57:50]
Alex Wagner
Yes.
- [57:50]
Jonathan V. Last
And you know, he, he pulled that and didn't make them vote on Gates. And as gratitude, they passed Tulsi RFK Jr. Cash Patel, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, all these absolute crazy people who have no business in the government. And so they were like, oh, but, yep, we did stop Matt Gaetz though, you know, and so it's possible that there will be something like that. You know, that's what I thought the Pulte poll was. He pulled Pulte so that they would then give him everything else. And so maybe he will pull something so they can feel like they had their big boy pants on, and then they'll just bite down on a stick and do whatever they have to.
- [58:35]
Hannah Dunning
Yeah.
- [58:35]
Alex Wagner
They pulled Pulte so that he could get Todd Blanche in as ag.
- [58:39]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah.
- [58:39]
Alex Wagner
Probably Todd Blanche being the great litanus test of Republican backbone. And I am with you in a cynic, a cynical assessment.
- [58:47]
Jonathan V. Last
No chance. No chance. They, they kill that nomination as they,
- [58:51]
Alex Wagner
as he literally ensures inside the, the, the machine that is the DOJ that like monies will be sent to insurrectionists.
- [58:59]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah.
- [59:00]
Alex Wagner
Whether the taxpayers know it or not the weakest defense of. Well, the most shameless embrace of corruption that you could get from a group of Senate Republicans.
- [59:12]
Jonathan V. Last
Alex, do you think that the Senate is going to demand a vote on the Iran deal?
- [59:19]
Alex Wagner
Absolutely not. They didn't want to vote to start the war.
- [59:21]
Jonathan V. Last
They didn't want. Exactly. Some of them are saying this like Lindsay's going around like I expect to see the Vice President coming up to defend his. They will any part of this.
- [59:32]
Alex Wagner
They want this all to just get buried in the fourth of July.
- [59:36]
Jonathan V. Last
Yep.
- [59:37]
Alex Wagner
And the, you know, they, they don't want to, they don't want to have to say the word Iran ever again. They're really just praying that $3.86 gas can keep them in the majority in the Senate. That's literally the only bet that they have.
- [59:53]
Jonathan V. Last
You know what else I think he's going to do?
- [59:55]
Alex Wagner
What?
- [59:55]
Jonathan V. Last
I think he's not going to bother refilling the strategic Petroleum reserve
- [60:01]
Megyn Kelly
so that
- [60:01]
Alex Wagner
we've more gas in the right.
- [60:03]
Jonathan V. Last
So we've run down the strategic reserve in an attempt to keep the gas prices from getting as high as they should be. So this has been like our artificial try to hold them down so that even like the 450, 470 gas we had should have been much worse. It's really low right now. And in a normal world, at the cessation of hostilities, as oil production and transit resume to normal, governments around the world would begin refilling their strategic reserves. But the problem is when you do that, you're adding more demand and so you're pushing the cost up because now there's excess demand over usage. Right. I don't think Trump is going to bother refilling the strategic reserve.
- [60:43]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, I think you're totally right. He doesn't wanna sacrifice 1 gallon of oil in the name maybe after the election, I mean maybe, I guess maybe. Cause there could be another. He could be faced with some kind of crisis. But yeah, anything to keep the most amount of gas in circulation at the pumps to keep the prices down so that the Senate can be held by Republicans so he doesn't get impeached. I mean that's really the only reason. It's not cuz he actually cares about the party. More of my conversation with Jonathan B. Last in just a minute. But first, first the police tell us they are here to protect us. But what if their original purpose was something altogether different? Join Crooked Ideas in New York City for an immersive two hour walking tour through lower Manhattan inspired by the award winning podcast Empire City. This on the ground storytelling experience takes you to real locations featured in the series, exposing how power struggles, political forces and discriminatory policies shaped policing. Tours run monthly beginning Saturday, July 18th through Thanksgiving weekend. Tickets are just 10 bucks. Reserve your spot today at crookedideas.org Empire City Runaway country is brought to you by the Freedom From Religion Foundation. America's story has always been unfinished, a constant negotiation about power, freedom, identity and who gets included in the promise of the country itself. As we approach America's 250th anniversary, it is worth remembering that the United States began as a rebellion against monarchy and divine rule. The founders attempted something radical for the time a secular constitution with no religious tests and a government accountable to the people. That framework created space for freedom of conscience to expand over time, imperfectly and unevenly but meaningfully. And now many of those same questions are coming right back up to the surface. We're seeing increasing pressure around the boundaries between religion, government and public life, debates that affect rights, education, representation, and who feels fully included in the American story? The Freedom From Religion foundation is working to protect the First Amendment because it protects everyone's freedom of conscience. Visit FFRF US Alex or text my first name a L E X to 511-511 to learn more and join as America 250 approaches. This isn't just about remembering the past. It's about deciding what comes next. Go to FFRF US Alex or text my name Alex to 511-511. Remember, text Alex to 511-511 today. Message and data rates may apply. Ondeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five star Trustpilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes@ondeck.com depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by Ondeck or Celtic bank on Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.
- [63:51]
Jonathan V. Last
Celebrate America's 2-50th with Dish. For a limited time, get an extra $250 off when you sign up. Call 888Add Dish or or visit dish.com today and use code DISH250 to claim your $250 savings. That's 888Add Dish. Offer ends August 12th. Terms apply.
- [64:22]
Alex Wagner
All right, well, this is all fucking depressing. How about J.D. vance, I will say I do not think he has the political talent of Donald J. Trump. I think he is. We see him out on Megyn Kelly on the View. He did a tour last week for his book about returning to the Catholic Church, about which we could say a lot. But for now, let's focus on whether or not his shepherding through of the Iran deal, his excuse making over inflation, and the Epstein files, whether any of that, do you think comes back to bite him in the ass in 2028? Because I know that Marco Rubio, who is the motherfucking Secretary of State, has been seen precisely nowhere, which seems to me like a tactical choice on the part of little Marco.
- [65:08]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah. Marco is saving his powder so he can rush out in front of cameras once they do. Cuba.
- [65:13]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, Cuba's next.
- [65:15]
Jonathan V. Last
So here's the thing about JD he is a very bad politician in the sense of, like, talking to voters. And you remember that video of him in the donut shop?
- [65:25]
Alex Wagner
Oh, we played all the time.
- [65:26]
Hannah Dunning
We played it.
- [65:27]
Alex Wagner
We played it for last week's Runaway Country. We can't stop playing it.
- [65:31]
Jonathan V. Last
So that's like how JD Is with real people. But he has a real gift for managing up. Right. And he's had this gift, so far as we can tell, his entire life. He was sucking up to Amy Chua when he was in law school.
- [65:44]
Alex Wagner
Wow. Amy Chua.
- [65:45]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah.
- [65:46]
Alex Wagner
Deep cuts. Deep cuts. But remember, he's Peter Thiel's trained parent.
- [65:51]
Jonathan V. Last
Sucking up to Peter Thiel, sucking up to David Frum, sucking up to Eric and Don Jr. Right. I mean, he is all sucking up Tucker. God, he sucked up Tucker so hard. So JD has always been up on the make. And for him, the real question is, and really the only question about 2028 is can he keep the field clear? And if he can do that. And that's a managing up question more than it is a like, can I get voters to like me question. And if he can keep the field clear and get Don Jr. Because that's the real question, is can he keep Don Jr from deciding to run? I know you hate it when I talk this way.
- [66:31]
Alex Wagner
No, I think you're totally right.
- [66:33]
Jonathan V. Last
Absolutely underappreciated as a potential 2028 nominee.
- [66:37]
Alex Wagner
Who? Don Jr. No, I think that's totally right. In fact, Sam Cedar, who we would talk to last week about J.D. vance's prospects, suggested that. That the narcissist, the malignant narcissism in Trump, will want him to have his progeny in the White House.
- [66:50]
Jonathan V. Last
Yes.
- [66:50]
Alex Wagner
He'll want A Trump. More than whatever begging and scraping JD Vance has done on his behalf to him.
- [66:55]
Jonathan V. Last
More than narcissism. This is like how Mafia bosses and monarchies. And monarchies work. Because you can't trust. No matter how loyal JD Vance is, you cannot trust JD Vance to keep you out of jail. You can trust your own kid to not keep you out of trouble.
- [67:11]
Alex Wagner
Yeah, no, it's. Yeah, totally.
- [67:12]
Jonathan V. Last
You can only trust family.
- [67:13]
Alex Wagner
Yeah. And even then, you can't trust Tiffany. Like, she's definitely not getting in there.
- [67:20]
Jonathan V. Last
So I, you know, I look at JD and that. That is JD's chief objective. But everything else about JD's position is, like, really weird because his position is, look, I'm the guy who didn't want us to get into this war.
- [67:34]
Hannah Dunning
War.
- [67:35]
Jonathan V. Last
But the war went great and we got everything we wanted. And if you elect me, I promise we will never do anything like that again. Right. This is his pitch. And it doesn't make any sense.
- [67:49]
Alex Wagner
It's incomprehensible.
- [67:50]
Jonathan V. Last
It's utterly incomprehensible. But I think it does become sustainable if Trump breaks with Israel, because that.
- [67:59]
Alex Wagner
That's the sort of.
- [68:00]
Jonathan V. Last
I think Israel is the key to understanding the 2028 Republican nomination. And maybe that's his recency bias and it won't matter, but I think it's because I think Israel becomes a proxy issue for, like everything else, that is the difference between the MAGA establishment and the America first true believers.
- [68:19]
Alex Wagner
That's a very interesting observation. And it will upend. It will upend both the Republican and Democratic primaries, too. If, If Trump breaks with Israel, it will be very interesting new dynamics that people are going to have to grapple with.
- [68:33]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah.
- [68:35]
Alex Wagner
Okay, let's go back to the big picture before we close this brilliantly pessimistic conversation out. I feel like I'm really asking the wrong person this question, but I'm going to ask it to you anyway. Pew Research did a compilation of all their polling from this year to see where Americans are. Are once again at the semi quincentennial, which I've been calling the semi susquentennial. That's not a word at all. I apologize. Retroactively, they think the country's best days are behind us. When asked to look ahead to 2050, upward of half of US adults say they think the economy will be weaker, the US Will be less important in the world, the country will be more politically divided, and the American system of government will work worse. Worse than it does today.
- [69:22]
Jonathan V. Last
I feel like.
- [69:22]
Alex Wagner
Did they call you jbl. I mean, shit, man, do you think there's any way getting out of that funk? No. That's kind of your worldview, isn't it?
- [69:34]
Jonathan V. Last
Yeah, basically. I mean let's, let's start at the like the outer edges of this with the foreign affairs stuff. Are we heading back to a unipolar world? No. Is America any longer the enforcer of an American led global order? No. Can you get that back? I don't believe so. Because A, China is rising. B, America just abandoned the Strait of Hormuz and said we are no longer going to guarantee international law. Right. The international law governed the Strait of Hormuz. We went to war with Iran. Iran annexed control of the Strait of Hormuz and we are ratifying that control, which means, well, China will control the South China Sea and. Right. And this is, you know, and the,
- [70:23]
Alex Wagner
and the Taiwan Strait and the Taiwan state and like, wait for the Strait of Malacca. I mean also, America can't be trusted. You have an Obama presidency, which is followed by a Trump presidency. You have a Biden presidency, that's followed by a Trump presidency. You could have a Newsom presidency or a fucking Ossoff presidency, but who knows? Poisonous snakes wait in the long grass, right?
- [70:44]
Jonathan V. Last
And so if you are a rational actor in Europe and you look and America is, there's a 50% chance America is an ally and a 50% chance America is not a, not a bad ally, but an actual adversary. Right? This is, I mean, Denmark was sending troops to Greenland with supplies to do blood transfusions because they were expecting a hot war with America. I mean, you can't. This is, I mean, there's a famous line about this from some French foreign minister who's like, you know, we cannot put European security up to 40,000 people, Wisconsin every four years.
- [71:19]
Alex Wagner
God, that's devastating. It's true, it's true.
- [71:22]
Jonathan V. Last
And we've seen this. Especially if you pay attention to the European defense industry. The European defense industry over the last two years has been like on fire because money is just pouring into this. They are, you know, one of the things which has held NATO together was interoperability, which is say that like their defense systems were based on our defense systems. And so even if we were angry with each other, US in Europe, Europe, ultimately, at the end of the day, all the things had to work together. That's not going to be true anymore in five or 10 years. So Europe's going its own way and they are likely to look at the Chinese as a much more reliable partner than we are because the Chinese may be authoritarians, but at least they're not crazy stable and at least they're predictable. And also the Chinese sphere of influence doesn't overlap with the European sphere. They don't have to worry about the Chinese trying to annex Greens Finland. So in the world of foreign affairs, I think the American led order is over and it's never coming back. And so at times we will be like a good, responsible member of the community of nations and at times we will be a hemispheric bully trying to like, you know, starve Cuban people or prop up Venezuelan dictators provided they give the Trump family money or whatever. Right. This is, this is what we're going back to to. In the world of economics, everybody's really freaked out about AI I don't know where you are about this. I go back and forth, I am sometimes more, sometimes less freaked out about AI but there's clearly economic change coming and economic change is scary and nobody. It is uncertainty and uncertainty is always destabilizing. So not sure about how that's going to work. And then when you look at the politics, it's getting much worse. We are at a point where red states are trying to impose their will on blue states. And you see this with the Texas abortion ban. And there are some counties in Texas which are trying passed laws saying that they have the right to a race arrest people traveling through them who they believe are going out of state, which means they're trying to govern what the neighboring states can do. Like, I don't know, you've got.
- [73:39]
Alex Wagner
Yes, or Louisiana and Mistone. I mean, medication, abortion. Another great example of them trying to restrict interstate commerce just to suit their
- [73:46]
Jonathan V. Last
Supreme Court, which is just absolutely partisan. I mean, the partisan nature of the Supreme Court is stunning. Right? And if nothing gets done to reform that, like, I don't know, why should anybody have any faith that any of these things can be fixed on the actual. How is America doing in partisan. Is America becoming more functional or less functional? We just 18 months ago handed keys to this trillionaire ketamine addict and let him go through and just turn off huge parts of the federal government. And As a result, 100,000 poor brown people in Asia and Africa died. Like, this is. Why would anyone.
- [74:28]
Alex Wagner
This is what we're doing.
- [74:29]
Jonathan V. Last
This could get better, right?
- [74:30]
Alex Wagner
Because the Knicks won in five. And I'm not kidding. But I do think. No, I think though there's every reason to be incredibly pessimistic. But I'm reminded occasionally that we are a sprawling, chaotic Multi faith, multi ethnic, multiracial democracy. And it's really fucking hard. And it's only gonna get harder. And people feel a lot of pain. And that pain has led to division. And we have someone in the White House who is only interested in stoking that division for his own ends. But I am somewhat hopeful that in the medium term, because I agree the long term is going to be very challenging. There is going to be change. I believe some lessons have been learned in a way that they weren't in 2020. I believe there can be a reconnection to the essential parts of this country that make us great. There can be a recommitment to who we are. It's not going to be uniform. But I guess there are moments of magic that sometimes creep in where you think, God, we are like, this is insane, what we're trying to do here. And it's really fucking hard. But sometimes good things happen. And sometimes people put in the work and sometimes people take the risks. And I guess I just, I hold on to that, that. Because the Knicks, one in five.
- [75:51]
Jonathan V. Last
Well, you know what? I'll try to give you some optimism. Nobody ever sees the collapses coming. So the Berlin Wall comes down. A. Nobody really sees the Berlin Wall falling, and it just does. Nobody sees the total triumph across the globe of sort of liberal democratic values, which is what we have in the wake of, of the fall of the Soviet Union. In the same way that nobody then can foresee the rise of Trumpism. Right. I mean, it sort of came out of nowhere and hit us. And you would not have sat in the middle of Obama's second term and thought, no, I bet the next thing coming is white nationalism.
- [76:32]
Hannah Dunning
Totally.
- [76:33]
Alex Wagner
You know, I wrote a book all about it at the wrong time.
- [76:37]
Jonathan V. Last
And so sometimes good things happen and you can't foresee those things either. And the same. We can't foresee the bad things. Often you can't foresee the good things. And so this is my favorite. This is like the thing I have to live by. Are you a tennis nerd?
- [76:51]
Alex Wagner
I used to play tennis. I have bad knees.
- [76:53]
Jonathan V. Last
Okay. So I am a longtime tennis nerd. And my favorite player ever is Andre Agassi. I sort of came of age watching Andre.
- [77:01]
Alex Wagner
Respect, respect.
- [77:02]
Jonathan V. Last
And he had one of these late night US Open matches. Very, very late in his career, I think he was against James Blake. And it was, you know, like he drops the first two sets, he's down a break in the third, and he comes back to win the whole thing when he can barely walk because he's an old man at this point and he is, you know, it's now 2 o' clock in the morning and he's sitting in the post match interview and they say, you know, at what point did you know you had turned it around? And Andre sort of looked at him, he said, I never knew I turned it around. And also, just because it turned around doesn't mean I had the right answers. Sometimes you just keep fighting and maybe something good happens. And that's the only answer any of us can have. That's the only answer any of us can have. Even if you don't think it's going to work out, you keep fighting because maybe something good happens.
- [77:57]
Alex Wagner
Yeah. And then if something good happens, take nothing for granted. Yeah. Okay. Well, I'm gonna take that as a dose of like a glimmer.
- [78:06]
Jonathan V. Last
I got you to optimism. I got you to happy hours.
- [78:08]
Alex Wagner
You did, you got. You did. You did. I mean, I was happy when it started just because you're here, but you got me low. But then you brought me back up. Jbl, thank you for being a wise counsel in these dark times. Even if your wisdom is sometimes tinged with sadness. I'm very grateful for your thoughts, your voice in this cacophony, and also, you know, being part of the two timers club on Runaway Country. We look forward to your triumphant third return.
- [78:36]
Jonathan V. Last
I can't wait. Anytime I put off everything to come to your show because your show's my favorite show in the world.
- [78:42]
Alex Wagner
Bless your show's my favorite show in the world. As is your writing. Happy early 4th of July. May the fireworks be bright and the hot dogs be hot.
- [78:49]
Jonathan V. Last
You too, sister.
- [78:51]
Alex Wagner
That is our show for this week. Don't forget to check out the show and our rapid response videos on our YouTube channel, Runaway country with Alex Alex Wagner. And if you are not sick of me yet, take a look at my substack. How the hell with Alex Wagner? Last but not least, if you've been impacted directly by the Trump administration and its policies, send us an email or a one minute voice note@runawaycountrycrooked.com and we may be in touch to feature your story. A huge thank you to everyone who has written in already. Runaway country is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Ilona Minkowski, Emma Elektron, Frank Haley Jones and Anisha Banerjee, with help from Eric Schutt, Kenny Moffat and Charlotte Landis. Production support from Ben Hethcote, Katie Long, Adrienne Hill and Matt De Groat. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. Mom, can you tell me a story?
- [79:40]
Hannah Dunning
Sure.
- [79:40]
Alex Wagner
Once upon a time, a mom needed a new car. Was she brave? She was tired, mostly. But she went to Carvana.com and found a great car at a great price. No secret treasure map required.
- [79:50]
Hannah Dunning
Did you have to fight a dragon? Nope.
- [79:52]
Alex Wagner
She bought it 100% online from her bed, actually.
- [79:55]
Hannah Dunning
Was it scary?
- [79:56]
Alex Wagner
Honey, it was as unscary as car buying could be. Did the car have a sunroof? It did, actually. Okay, good story. Car buying you'll want to tell stories about. Buy your car today on Carvana.
- [80:07]
Hannah Dunning
Delivery fees may apply.