Podcast Summary: "What Undecided Voters Think of Kamala Harris"

Podcast: Runaway Country with Alex Wagner (Crooked Media)
Episode: 6
Date: July 28, 2024
Host: Jon Favreau (with guest Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark & Host of The Focus Group Podcast)

Overview

This episode delves into the rapidly shifting political landscape following President Biden's decision to withdraw from the 2024 race and the appointment of Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Host Jon Favreau and guest Sarah Longwell dissect the perspectives of undecided and swing voters—those crucial to the 2024 outcome—drawing on recent focus group data, particularly around initial reactions to Harris, latent fears and hopes, and the new challenges and opportunities facing the Democratic ticket.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Immediate Reactions to Biden’s Withdrawal

• Biden’s Debate Performance & Fallout ([04:40]):

  • Swing voters have harbored doubts for months, mainly about Biden’s age.

    “They would say things like, he's an animatronic wax work. They forgot to wind up. They would call him a corpse.” — Sarah Longwell (05:15)

  • There was relief—and even excitement—among swing voters about the change, despite some not being fully on board with Harris yet.

• Black Voter Perspective ([05:49]):

  • Contrary to conventional wisdom, not all Black voters wanted Biden to stay; there was apprehension about Harris, rooted in fears about the treatment of a Black woman candidate.

    “It feels better to have an old white guy, because if it’s Kamala, they’re gonna tear her apart.” — Sarah, paraphrasing focus group (06:35)

2. Pre-Handoff Perceptions of Kamala Harris

• Black Women’s Reluctance & Fears ([07:48]):

  • The hesitancy was less about Harris personally and more about America not being ready for a Black woman president.
  • The dynamic might be shifting from fear to readiness to mobilize now that Harris is the candidate.

    “Excitement can be really contagious … once she showed up … when somebody is showing up, right, and they’re going on offense … you could just see how … they’re ready to rock with you.” — Sarah (08:21)

• Comparisons to Obama’s Early Struggles ([09:19]):

  • Similar fear among Black voters about whether an African American candidate could win, but visible momentum can quickly turn that around.

3. Swing Voters’ (and Others’) View of Harris

• Lack of Exposure & Information ([10:09]):

  • Most common perception: “I don’t know her,” which is not active dislike, but unfamiliarity—a gap Harris can address.

    “Most people just have, like, an absent negative impression.” — Sarah (11:24)

• Concerns Over the Primary Process ([12:01]):

  • Some swing voters express frustration that there wasn’t a primary and feel the process was undemocratic.

    “There’s this sense of like, well, the donors got to pick … and that doesn’t feel fair.” — Sarah (12:37)

  • Few strong preferences for alternative candidates, but Michelle Obama is the one name that comes up repeatedly as a dream pick ([16:14]).

4. Early Signs of Positive Harris Momentum

• Youth Enthusiasm Spilling Beyond “Very Online” Circles ([17:43]):

  • Younger, more social-media-connected voters see Harris as fresh and energizing.

    “It feels like a breath of fresh air. I feel like it’ll be like a new beginning.” — Swing voter (17:49)

• Positive Head-to-Head Metrics ([20:18]):

  • Focus group straw polls moving from evenly split to a strong advantage for Harris over Trump (7 to 1 in recent exercises).

5. Challenges: Race, Gender, and Policy Record

• Racial and Gender Dynamics ([21:13]):

  • Some voters doubt America will elect a Black woman, particularly “old white” swing voters in crucial states.
  • Discussed risk of Harris being painted as “outside the mainstream,” and the negative implications of being labeled a “DEI president.”

• Policy Vulnerabilities from 2020 Primary ([25:13]):

  • Concerns raised that Harris’s previous progressive stances (filibuster, border, Green New Deal, etc.) will be targeted by Republicans now.

    “Every one of those policy positions, a dagger through my centrist, loving heart.” — Jon Favreau (25:31)

• Communicating Change and Growth ([26:18]):

  • Both hosts agree Harris must “own” her time as VP, not just past campaign positions, and highlight pragmatic governance.

    “Say: I’ve been vice president for the last three years, and I’ve learned a lot doing that. … Not in California, but for this entire country.” — Sarah (26:35)

6. Strategic Recommendations for Harris

• Message Hope, Optimism & Patriotism ([28:09]):
  • Harris should reclaim the narrative of American progress and optimism, referencing Obama-style patriotic themes rather than focusing strictly on grievance.

    “I would have her say a lot of nice things about America. Donald Trump right now says just garbage about America all the time. It’s a dark place, it’s a bad place. And I think that people right now want a hopeful message.” — Sarah (28:09)

• Thread the Needle on Trump ([31:08]):
  • Prosecute Trump on concrete issues—economy, Covid, border—not just character/democracy.

    "You can’t just prosecute the case on democracy … you have to tie it into policies she can contrast with.” — Sarah (32:57)

• Emphasize Authenticity ([39:29]):
  • Voters sniff out phoniness; Harris’ ability to “run as herself” and project genuine authenticity could be her greatest asset.

    "Nothing with these voters, all of them, beats authenticity." — Sarah (40:37)

• Focus on Issues that Break Through:
  • Project 2025 is beginning to register with focus groups as a “catchall boogeyman,” especially around issues women care about; Harris should stick to clear, resonant issues, not technicalities like Schedule F ([34:58], [36:05]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the Moment’s Uncertainty and Opportunity:

• “Biden dropping out this close to the election is a truly shocking development that has no precedent in US History. … The race between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign to define the VP in the last hundred days … is on.” — Jon Favreau ([00:56])

On Voter Skepticism/Process:

• “There’s this sense of like, well, the donors got to pick and our Democrats picked, and that doesn’t feel fair.” — Sarah Longwell ([12:37])

On the Need for a Fresh Start:

• “I feel like it’ll be like a new beginning. Instead of feeling like you’re watching a rerun, because Trump has already been in office. You know what I’m saying? … She’s quick witted, she’s funny, she has a personality.” — Focus group participant ([17:49])

On Race and Gender:

• “If we were going to do a woman, it would have to be a white woman first.” — Black woman in focus group ([07:27])
• “A lot of them talked about how black men that they knew didn’t like Kamala Harris.” — Sarah ([08:05])

On Policy Luggage:

• “Every one of those policy positions, a dagger through my centrist, loving heart.” — Jon Favreau ([25:31])

Strategy Take:

• “If J.D. Vance is allowed to go from calling Trump heroin for the masses and saying that Trump’s a sociopath and America’s Hitler to being his VP, I think people get to change their minds on some things.” — Sarah ([26:18])
• “If there’s one thing voters can sniff out, it’s the phoniness.” — Sarah ([39:29])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:56] – Introduction of Harris as the new nominee/episode theme
• [03:40] – Sarah Longwell breaks down focus group demographics and activities
• [04:40] – Voters’ catastrophic reactions to Biden’s debate
• [05:49] – Black voters’ mixed feelings about Harris taking the helm
• [07:27] – Black woman’s candid assessment of barriers facing Harris
• [09:19] – Obama 2007 comparison for Black voter enthusiasm
• [10:09] – “Who is Kamala?” persistent theme among swing voters
• [12:37] – Process anxiety: frustration about no primary
• [16:14] – Michelle Obama as the perpetual “dream candidate”
• [17:49] – Positive focus group clip: Harris as fresh, relatable
• [21:13] – Race, gender, old white voters’ anxieties
• [25:31] – Harris’s prior progressive positions: centrist concern
• [26:35] – Recommendation: own the Vice Presidency, communicate growth
• [28:09] – Pivot to hope, optimism, and patriotism in Harris campaign
• [31:08] – Strategy on prosecuting Trump
• [34:58] – Project 2025’s rise as a salient campaign issue
• [39:29] – Authenticity as the prime voter litmus test

Episode Tone

• The tone is informed, candid, and reflective—with moments of humor and vulnerability as Favreau and Longwell dissect how America’s “car with no brakes” might change lanes in 2024. The hosts aren’t afraid to be self-critical or challenge progressive assumptions about the electorate.

Final Thoughts

What’s clear from these focus groups is that Harris, unlike her predecessor or opponent, is not a known quantity to most key voters—a challenge, but also a moment of opportunity. The episode strongly suggests that how Harris introduces herself, threads issues of optimism and toughness, and stakes her authenticity in contrast to Trump will define the race ahead.

For listeners hoping to catch up without listening: This episode is an invaluable snapshot of what real, persuadable Americans are thinking mere days after one of the most consequential shifts in modern presidential politics.