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Up to 35% off your first subscription order with promo code Acast. Go to livemomentous.com and use promo code Acast for up to 35% off your first Subscription Order. That's livemomentous.com promo code AK Acast. Welcome to episode number 197 of the Roundtable. Grant Brisby here with Anim McCullough and Sam Miller. Sam, how in the heck are you?
Sam Miller
Good, Andy. How are you?
Andy McCullough
I'm all right, yeah. I mean, I'm. I'm trying to grow a mustache now. It looks bad, but luckily we're still not on video.
Grant Brisby
So.
Andy McCullough
Yeah, Sam. The mustache is so faint that Sam leaned in to look at it.
Sam Miller
Andy broke this news to all of us at the same time. The listeners and the viewers.
Grant Brisby
I just like licked my thumb a little bit and tried to get it off of my computer and it worked. That's the weird part is that it worked. Now you don't have a mustache. Because I was able to do it from 3,000 miles away.
Andy McCullough
I've had a. I've had a belief kind of my, my whole adult life that if I could grow a beard, you know, my life would change. Like, I would look cooler. I'm always like so self conscious about my double chin. Like, I think I would. I would just look like, great. So while I've been on paternity leave, I. I have some time. I just don't leave the house. So I'm just kind of sitting around and I don't have. I don't see anyone. So I've been trying to grow a beard. It wasn' looks so bad. Like it just. It's patchy, it's white. Like it came in full white and it's just like white patches. Here's the cat. Get out of here, Harry. Harry hates the beard. And so I was like, all right, I. I can't grow. Like, I just have. I had to give up. Like, I can't grow a beard. Like, when I was a. When I was a kid, I was really into music and it was a lot harder to access music. And so you would hear about these albums, you know, that, that had come out years before, but like, you couldn't get them at the store or something. And like I didn't, you know, have a ton of money to like, buy these. Yeah, so the, the exact one is the. The Soft Boys Underwater Moonlight. I was like, I liked. It was always listed as like, you know, a record that I, that I would like as someone who liked, you know, that sort of 80s, you know, jangle pop type stuff. The point was that I finally listened to the Soft Boys record. After like three years of trying to find it, I finally found it in the store and it sucked.
Sam Miller
Grant. Grant, do you have. I'm. Do you have an equ. Thing you need to do to become a full adult in your mind?
Grant Brisby
I mean, I'll just say it. It was the beard. Everything changed once I got this beard. I mean, it's. And Andy's not wrong. If you chart like you could plot a graph. I grew this beard on my honeymoon and the graph just keeps going up. You know, kids, career, success, pretty much all the beard.
Sam Miller
I wanted to be able to dribble the basketball without being worried that someone was going to come take it from me. Like, I wanted to have sufficient ball handling skills, that I wasn't constantly worried that someone was just going to run up and take the ball from me. For a long time, I thought that ball handling was the key to being an adult, and now I'm pretty good at that. I still don't feel like an adult. I think that currently the missing piece in my head is being able to dance at a wedding. I still don't have those.
Andy McCullough
Like, what is holding you back there?
Sam Miller
I don't have the confidence. I don't feel like. I don't feel like I have it. And so then I. I sort of, like, find ways to avoid the situation.
Andy McCullough
You do know there's a performance enhancing drug for this alcohol? It's. Yeah, it's called just getting trashed. You don't have to get trash. Have three beers, have three drinks. I don't know. You might not drink. That's. That's fine. I would say sober dancing in a wedding seems crazy to me.
Grant Brisby
I just realized I've never tried it.
Sam Miller
Never tried dancing at a wedding?
Grant Brisby
Sober dancing at a wedding. It's like my. My era of weddings is when you're 20s, and every one of those is special and dear to my heart because they were so fun and I might have danced. I. I even rapped at one. But nowadays, I'm not going to as many weddings, and I don't have the PED that I need.
Andy McCullough
I would say that one of the prouder moments of my adult life.
Grant Brisby
Cocaine.
Andy McCullough
Don't do that. That's. That's an unnecessary. That's like doing, you know, the. The stanilazole.
Grant Brisby
Right.
Andy McCullough
You can just use trace amounts of hgh. They can't test for that. But one of the prouder moments of my adult life is at Jake Mintz's wedding. I was dancing so well that Pedro Mora said to me, I did not know you had those moves.
Sam Miller
Ooh.
Andy McCullough
I mean, that's like when a cool guy tells you that you're dancing. Well, like, that's. Yeah. That got me through some tough times.
Grant Brisby
I think you misspoke, though. You said wedding when. I think you meant when he asked his date to homecoming. He had, like, a party or something.
Andy McCullough
Jake's, like, in his 30s, man. We're very old.
Grant Brisby
I know. I saw that his official title is senior writer, and it's like, come on, man. Like, what was he, a sophomore writer two years ago? Anyways, all right.
Andy McCullough
As you can see, there's been a lot going on in baseball over the weekend.
Grant Brisby
Yeah, no, as we Were. This is the first time. I mean, this is episode 197. Andy's been around for most of them. Sam's been around for what, half of them now. This is the first time. I really remember us beating our heads against the wall trying to think about what baseball to talk about, because y' all talked about the Mets, but I think we landed on something. I think we landed on Tyler Rogers, the Blue Jays, the Blue Jays winning the off season, the powerhouse Blue Jays with the whole country to themselves. That's kind of interesting because Tyler Rodgers is interesting, I think. I don't know. What do you guys got?
Sam Miller
When everybody was putting out their top 50 free agents list before the offseason began, they would all say that Tyler Rodgers just got out. You know, like he was underrated. He just gets out. He doesn't do it in a flashy way, but he's. Over the last seven years, he's got, you know, the second best ERA in baseball or something crazy. And then they would rank him like 64. And I was waiting for someone to say, he's legitimately good. I think he is legitimately good. I. I have often said there are only four good relievers, and no one has followed up. I don't believe with, who are they, Sam? But someone did the other day, my friend Justin did the other day. He said, who are they, Sam and I? Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Craig Kimball, and Tyler Rogers is the only repeatable bullpen, you know, the only repeatable reliever, the fourth most repeatable good reliever in baseball history, in my mind. And so I'm glad to see that he got like, you know, I've been tracking. I've got my spreadsheet, you know, my. Our salaries solved spreadsheet to see whether free agent salaries can now be accurately predicted, giving given commonly shared inputs. And so I've been looking at MLB trade rumors, salary predictions for the top 50 free agents, and how close they get, and they've been just crushing it. Like, they're on every contract and someone will sign, and the reaction on Twitter will be like, can you believe this guy got the thing? And then you go look at MLB trade rumors predictions, and it was right on, right on. Everything is right on. And Tyler Rogers just ruined their off season. They had 2 and 18 for Tyler Rogers. Two years, 18 million. He signed for 3 and 37. So they were a year short. And they were also less than three quarters of the average annual value. And that makes me really happy because Tyler Rodgers is. He is not a player who has certain Physical attributes that you think maybe you can bring something good out of him? No, no, he's just. He knows how to get outs. He knows how to be good at baseball, and he's demonstrated it, and I'm happy to see it. I thought that the Mets. You know, there was a sense that the Mets overpaid to get him at the trade deadline. Relative to what, other relievers. No, no, no. He's awesome. And the Mets got really good performance out of him. He was way better than the other, you know, not all the other relievers that were traded at the trade deadline, but most of them. He had a 2.3 ERA for them. He struck out 10 batters in 30 innings, but he had a 2.3 ERA. So good for Tyler Rogers. Good for the Blue Jays. Good for last summer's Mets. Good for the Giants. For many years, everybody who's ever put their hopes in Tyler Rogers. Good for you.
Andy McCullough
I have one point of correction. He's quite flashy. He's one of the flashier throwing guys there is. He just doesn't throw hard. But he's, you know, I mean, look, he's kind of about himself when he's out there.
Grant Brisby
I've never heard it phrased quite like that, but, yeah, go get yours, young man.
Andy McCullough
He's OFB when he's on the mound. Like, he's not, you know, trying to be conventional, like he's. He's breaking down barriers. Yeah. I will say that one thing that is quite interesting, notable to me is the sort of template for relief contracts is clear. It's like three years. What's your AV? We'll give it to you for three years. You know, Devin Williams, 3 for 51. Diaz 3 for 69. Robert Suarez, I think 346 maybe. And then, you know, Tyler Rogers, 3 for 37. And it's like, yeah, that's kind of. That's kind of what it is. And so that does sort of buy. That does sort of offer some corroboration of our theory that free agent contracts are signed, that they're sort of. It's solved. Yeah, it's solved to an extent. To an extent. And they're still, you know, but especially for that market, it seems the most, like, sort of reasonable to just sort of, look, this is our price point. If you want to sign at this price point, we'll give you this deal. Otherwise, you know, we'll find the next guy and we have a slightly different price point for him.
Sam Miller
Whatever.
Grant Brisby
I will say for Tyler Rogers, I've been covering him for, you know, more than a half decade now. And it would have been. If I could figure out his fatal flaw. If I could just say, well, actually, you know, he's not that good because of X. Or here's what you have to worry about with Y and Tyler Rogers. If he had one of those, it would have really made for a rip and column. It would have. Because there is a certain subset of Giants fans. It's not a majority, it's not a plurality, but there are just certain people who can't stand him. Right. Because he has that. When it doesn't work, it looks like it shouldn't work. Just aggressively looks like it. Like when it. When he throws a meatball in the middle of the zone just thigh high and someone crushes it 50 rows deep, it looks like that's. Yeah, that's what should have happened. But over and over again, year after year, he's just good. Like every year, there's no lefties, righties, late innings. If you want to get him a save, whatever, he's just good. His only fatal flaw. And if you're a Blue Jays fan, you think. You think this is a minor point, but I promise you, his fatal flaw is getting hitters to hit the ball too poorly, too oddly. And then your infield is like, he. He can let the other team start a rally by, like, sneezing on the ball, and then all of a sudden, it's like, second, third, nobody out because he's done nothing wrong. That's where he'll drive you nuts. Other than that, I'm. I'm with Sam. He's like a legitimately great reliever. I'm gonna say good. He's just a great reliever.
Sam Miller
I can't remember if this is something that I read about at Fan Graphs or something like that, or if this is just something that the Giants broadcasters talk about, but it is an unusually high number of. His hits are like the sort of hit where, like, oh, well, it's off the nub of the guy's bat, and it starts off foul, but then rolls back. Yes. Or it's a pop up just over the pitcher's mound that, like, dies before it reaches second base. Like, they are freaky hits. They're like really weird hits. They're like hits off of the handle.
Grant Brisby
Yes. He's throwing a ball that's a guy swung at and hit him in the face.
Sam Miller
It's great the way the pitch hit him in the face, or like a foul ball or something. Hit him in the face.
Grant Brisby
I want to say. I want to say the pitch I'm gonna go look for as a Padres guy. I can't remember his name anyways.
Sam Miller
Yeah. So there's, like, a sense that you're a little bit more. Well, the. The. You know, we all know the Babip gods are cruel and fickle, but he's dealing with the Babip gods dancing drunk at a wedding. Right. They're really weird when it comes to him. Andy's dancing right now with his mustache. What'd you find out about Tyler Rogers?
Grant Brisby
It didn't hit me. It hit him in the shoulder, but it almost hit him in the face. I'll drop it in the chat.
Sam Miller
The pitch or the.
Grant Brisby
Or a foul. It was the pitch. So he swung with all his might and it.
Sam Miller
Yeah, I think I'd be more impressed by a pitcher that could get you to foul the ball off your face.
Grant Brisby
Yeah, I'm sure he's done that. I mean, like. And that's the other thing. He will get not just the weirdest contact on balls in play, but balls not in play.
Sam Miller
I know.
Grant Brisby
I've told the story. When I went to a driving range and I tried to hit a golf ball while using my baseball grip and ended up, like, hitting it off of the divider and back into. Into my face. Like, that's what happened when I tried to use a baseball grip and try. You, like. And that's kind of like the analogy is that you're not supposed to do this in this sport. Like, this is not for this sport. You have what Tyler Rogers is doing. Like, no, no, no.
Andy McCullough
That.
Grant Brisby
Those pitches are not baseball pitches. Get out of here. You're breaking. You're, like, hitting handles and faces and stuff. Get out of here.
Sam Miller
Yeah, so this is the. The most aberrant. Maybe. Is aberrant the right word here? Aberration. The furthest from the prediction that a signing has happened. You know, that a signing has been this year. Pete Alonzo's total value was also a spreadsheet buster. They had him signing for much less, but otherwise, MLB trade rumors, median miss is only like 10%. Whereas in 2014, the state of the industry's predictions were like, 28%.
Grant Brisby
Miss.
Andy McCullough
I have a question about Alonzo. We didn't really actually talk about the Orioles aspect of them signing Alonzo, which, like, you know, kind of a big deal for a team that's, like, relatively, you know, fairly important to the, you know, the Major League Baseball in 2026. I was thinking about. You know, we talked about this in the context of like. Like, if you're not getting caught, stolen bases, stealing bases, you're not stealing enough bases. If you're not missing flights, you're showing up too early at the airport. Do you think that applies to free agency? Like, if you're not whiffing big, you're not signing enough free agents.
Sam Miller
If you had a big enough sample, that would probably be true. But you only play like two or three of these pots a night. You gotta. You can't.
Andy McCullough
You gotta win your all ins.
Sam Miller
Yeah, exactly. I mean, the Orioles are gonna sign somebody like Pete Alonso once every three years. You know, they can't be missing at all. You just. I mean, you could. Maybe it would be good process for you to miss some of them, but you get fired. Like, your next. You would be part of the analysis that the next GM did. Right? Right.
Andy McCullough
Yeah.
Sam Miller
In.
Andy McCullough
In poker they call that variance. So I guess then how Sam and Grant, would you like? Is this the $155 million swing that the Orioles should have taken?
Grant Brisby
I need to see the rest of the offseason. I need to see if this is freeing up some of their younger position player types for trades for pitching. Because I wasn't necessarily worried about the Orioles ability to. I know they had a rough year last year, but I wasn't necessarily worried about their ability to score runs over the next couple of years where I was very worried about their ability to keep runs off the board.
Sam Miller
Yeah, I'm writing today, literally right now, like a half hour ago, I was working on the Baseball Prospectus essay, annual essay about the Orioles. I don't really want to get too deep into where my thoughts are right now because they're still being like they. The writing process is drawing them out. But the Orioles antagonism toward having pitching. Yeah, it doesn't feel like it's working. I think there's a little bit of room for debate on that. They were 28th in baseball last year in ERA Plus. So they were real, real, real bad after investing almost nothing in pitching. The Baseball Prospectus uses a different measure called DRA minus, which is complicated. It, like, factors in, like, weather. It factors in lots of stuff.
Grant Brisby
Right.
Sam Miller
And they had The Orioles being 14th in true pitching performance. And if you assumed that that was accurate and that the Orioles going forward, you know, would be expected to be like a league average pitching staff while investing practically nothing in it by design, then you'd say, hey, wow. Oh, I sort of see how this works. You invest everything in more predicting, predictable hitting, and you invest nothing in pitching. And if you can just hold serve on the pitching side, then that's like kind of an interesting and maybe a good strategy. And that definitely seems to be, I know Elias is talking about, you know, he's, they're, they're looking like maybe they might still pursue pitching. They, it was a priority that they voiced entering the off season. Maybe they'll sign a pitcher. Probably they'll sign a pitcher. You have to, by law, you have to have some pitchers. What he said at the press conference is that this is arguably the best lineup in baseball now. And I don't know if that, I believe that, but you can see it coming true. You know, if a bunch of the young guys who regress unregress progress, then you could see it being true. And that's certainly a strategy. You don't, you know, you don't have to have good pitching to win. You know, if you outscore the opponent. Now I say that you don't have to have good pitching to win. I say that. But literally last year the league Average scoring was 4.5 runs a game. Every team that allowed more than 4.45 runs per game. Every single team that allowed more than that had a losing record. So it is really hard to win consistently if you don't have average pitching or better. You have to really slug like crazy. And is Pete Alonso that guy? I, I mean I'm like a little lower on Pete Alonso than a lot of people are. He's a good hitter. He's. He's not Juan Soto. He can't even protect Juan Soto, but he's a good hitter. I just don't know that the Orioles have as good a lineup as Mike Elias is arguably is is suggesting.
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Andy McCullough
It was clear in going after Schwarber they were looking for you know like kind of a. Yeah like a big right handed presence. It was clear in pivoting immediately to Alonzo that they're like all right, well you know we can't get that but so we can still get a pretty good player. Like again like we. I think the thing with P. Alonso is because it's he's been in free agency the last couple years there's been a lot more discussion about the things he doesn't do well and not the baseline of just like the guy hits 35 to 40 home runs, you know and is tends to be pretty good most of the time. Like doesn't go through hu. You know, he was one of the few Mets who played well down the strats, etc. Etc. He's, he's a really, really good hitter. He's going to make their lineup better. But it is kind of them really leaning in to just not believing in pitchers as a concept. You know they've already traded Grayson Rodriguez for, for Taylor Ward and you know they gave up a lot more control with Rodriguez than they're getting Back with Ward, which, you know, might suggest how they felt about Rodriguez's, you know, sort of future and, you know, health questions or whatever. I guess we'll see how that shakes out. They still have, you know, like, if they traded for Freddie Peralta in the. They traded for Corbin Burns, you know, a couple years ago, would that shock anyone? Like, no. They still have a ton of pieces to, to make a trade and. And to improve the pitching staff. It's an interesting. Pete Alonzo is certainly not the player I would have wagered on Michaelias making his first nine figure commitment. That's a pretty surprising guy given the way that they've built this team and the way that they tend to, you know, they seem like they think about players, but it's also like, you know, he's a really good hitter and they kind of need a reliable hitter and that's who Pete Alonso is. And so it'll be. It'll be quite interesting to see how it works out.
Sam Miller
While clearly the problem when you look at their roster is the lack of pitching, the problem when you look at last season was also the hitting. They finished sixth from the bottom in pitching. They finished seventh from the bottom in hitting, which feels like a problem that was going to largely sort itself out, but also did need to be sorted out. And so it's for a team that really wants to slug and, like, have offensive depth and, you know, be nine deep and everything like that, it's not that surprising that they would say, well, it was really frustrating watching the offense suck last year. Let's do something about it again. I think that part of this is you just have to remind yourself that $150 million isn't as much as we think it is. We haven't. You know, we were raised doing transactional analysis pieces 10 years ago when 155 million was a lot more than it is now and less than it will be in five years. So it's not as though this keeps them from ever making another big signing. So that's part of it, too. But, yeah, I mean, I don't know. I would rather have Schwaber on, like, every dimension for that reason. It's kind of not a signing that, like, I'm super giddy about, but sure, you know, take runs however you can get them. Right, right. Right.
Grant Brisby
I am scarred permanently by certain teams throughout my baseball watching life where I just. They bother me. They still bother me. Like, it's like, it's just an itch I can't scratch. And for me, the Cleveland team in the 1990s was one of those. It just, they still bother me because I'll look at their baseball reference page and, and just the names are unbelievable. What they're doing is Tome and Mandy Ramirez and they're just going nuts. You know, it's just they're, they're all just doing as well as they can possibly do. And then you go down to the pitching and the pitching is, you know, at best you've got guys with like you know, 100 era plus or something like that and you've got the. And. And they were so frustrating because it was so simple to be like I, you know what your guys problem is is you're not preventing the runs. Anybody can take the, you know, like, like car reservation. So it's. That is I'm scarred by those teams. The Rangers of the late nights, something like. I think that's the worst way, the worst possible way to lose. And we've talked about this and the bad bullpen is probably higher up on the list of ways you don't want to lose. But having a fully functional death star of a lineup in just the, the most mid rotation or worse or bullpen, the. That is just a dynamic I can't stand. And I've watched all pitching, no hit teams, that's also frustrating. But the idea that you have, you can have generational hitting and not win. That is like what the Orioles look like they're setting themselves up for like maybe we'll have generational hitting one day but then they'll just be the freaking 90s guardians or Indians.
Sam Miller
First of all, what's Cleveland in the 90s was phenomenal, Grant. What are you talking about? They were great and they came like, I mean they should have. They blew the 1997 World Series. They were, they were there. Okay. The Big Red machine was also this team in the 70s. So anyway.
Andy McCullough
But this is Don Galette erasure.
Sam Miller
I'm just saying that if the, if the Orioles could hit like either of those teams, it wouldn't be a problem. Largely I agree with your point. The problem, the problem with the Orioles current team building structure is that on the pitching side you have cascading failure. If you don't have enough pitchers, then you're going to have to fill those innings with even worse pitchers. And that puts more pressure on the bad pitchers you already have. It moves the bad pitchers into higher leverage roles. It puts more strain on the relievers. You're already going to be challenged with pitching depth because someone's going to get hurt or Three guys are going to get hurt at the same time. And so it can really become a of part, you know, a situation where you have a guy who's got an eight and a half ERA and he's actually having to pitch. And there is no circuit breaker on that. Right. Like it's half the game is you trying to find pitching. And if you don't have any of it, it can really get out of hand bad. Whereas with hitting, with a first baseman in particular, if your first baseman is really bad at hitting, well, that's one spot you have to fill and you probably kind of will be able to, like, maybe you're going to have one spot in the lineup that has a.660 OPS for a couple of months. But the problem is contained. It doesn't. It doesn't get out and infect the entire lineup. The left fielder isn't going to, you know, be worse because your first baseman can't hit. Whereas with pitching, it really feels like it does. It's like a. It's a unit. They're sharing the labor. They're all interacting with each other in ways. And so how many teams missed the playoffs because. Or how many teams underperform by 20 wins? So the Orioles last year were supposed to win like 89 and they won 75. And the fact that their pitching was terrible. Well, I guess I had just said that their hitting was terrible too. So maybe I'm going to undermine my own point, but how many teams have you seen collapse because their first baseman wasn't great? Not that many. Like, maybe they underperformed by a couple wins, but how many teams have you seen collapse because the pitching wasn't great? Like, happens every year.
Grant Brisby
I always think about. I don't remember what year it was, but there was that one year where the Red Sox were just. They had a postseason locked up until September, and then by the end of September, there was like the last of the seasons. Like, the Red Sox might be signing Bruce Chen to make their, like, last start of the season. It was like that dire.
Andy McCullough
Yeah, it was 2011. They were the fried chicken and beer season. I remember I was covering the Mets and they were like, trying to trade for Chris capuano, like on September 20th or something. And I just remember being like, is this possible? Like, they were just like, we'll just give you money. Just give us. We need cappy. I do think the Orioles are not dissimilar from a lot of teams who are, you know, run by, you know, just sort of sharp thinkers that, like, they're not. The calendar is not their enemy.
Sam Miller
Right.
Andy McCullough
Like, there's good pitchers out there on the trade market and in free agency they will probably acquire some of them. I say this now, brother, there could be egg on my face in a few months. But I, I tend to, I mean, like, I think they know what they're looking at. They know that this is a problem. And I, I guess they were always more likely if they were going. If, if you really follow the way that they have evaluated players and what they prioritize. I guess they were always more likely to bet big on a hitter in free agency than bet big on a pitcher. But there had been a team the past couple years where they go into the offseason. It's like, well, you got to sign a pitcher, right? Like you got to do that. They're just like, no, that's not no. And you know, like saying no hasn't worked. And so we'll see if they are able to, you know, sort of look, there's still a lot of good players on the market. There's still a lot, a lot of good arms on the market. And we could look up and on March 1st and you know, they could be the division favorites.
Sam Miller
It's not that the Orioles haven't signed a pitcher. It's this offseason yet. It's that the pitchers haven't signed yet. Like we haven't gotten to that stage. And so you can't say that they've opted out of it. Now that said of any team, if you had to pick a team that was going to choose never to sign a pitcher, they, they, it would be them. They've got a six year track record in that, that front office has a six year track record of doing it a certain way. The most they've given to Any pitcher is $15 million total commitment. That's the most they've given to any pitcher. So they might keep that up. But it does seem like they're. There's a lot more kind of smoke as far as the Orioles pursuit of pitching this offseason than there had previously been.
Grant Brisby
Let me ask you guys a question. I'm covering a team that is in need of at least one starting pitcher, maybe two. Fans are getting a little bit uneasy about it. I still look at the free agent market and the market of pitchers who are available in trade and I can go like 20 deep and go, yeah, that makes sense for like every team. You know, there's like, it just feels to me, it's not like there's A bulk of pitching, but you can go pretty far before you start wincing going. I don't see. See that in. In a contending rotation. Like, it feels like you can go farther. And then you start, like, thinking like Adrian Hower have to learn about, you know, like, it's. It's like, I call it the Hauser line. Do you guys feel the same way about pitching or. Or are you a little bit more cynical?
Andy McCullough
I don't feel 20 deep. I feel about 8.
Sam Miller
Just to be clear, you're saying there's lots of good pitching available.
Grant Brisby
Not good, but pitching where you could see it. Like pitching where you say, yeah, that guy belongs in a major league rotation. He's not going to hurt their chances to contend. At worst, he might, you know, really propel them. At best, I feel like there's 20 pitchers that I could make an argument for. I want this guy in. In my rotation. Too many. I. I'm getting some weird faces.
Andy McCullough
I would love to see 10 to 20 for you.
Sam Miller
They're all aces, too. No, I, I don't feel that way. I mean, I could see it's like.
Grant Brisby
Tyler Molle, like, right. I just. I think he could be good.
Andy McCullough
Yeah.
Sam Miller
Okay.
Grant Brisby
You know what I mean?
Andy McCullough
I'm literally, I'm looking at the fan graphs. List of available free agent pitchers sorted by projected WAR for next year. All right, ready? From Bravo Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Zach Gallon.
Sam Miller
I'm done. No, you got me. I got three names that I like. There's three guys who I want starting a postseason. Okay.
Andy McCullough
Four Imai.
Sam Miller
I would.
Andy McCullough
@ least you got. You should probably be in the email business, I think. But then, right, you have Chris Bassett. Yeah, totally fine. Zach Eflin. Not very good last year in my. Zach Littell, you know, Justin.
Grant Brisby
Verlander. There was a key part, though, I said also in trade. So when you. Now you start, you know, you start talking about Mackenzie Gore and.
Andy McCullough
Joe. Of all the terrible takes I've had on this pod, I think saying the Orioles can't trade Jackson Holiday for Tarek Skubal is probably the worst. I don't think that deal's on the table.
Grant Brisby
Anymore. I don't think it.
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Sam Miller
Purchase. There are guys who I don't mind giving innings to. You know, last year, the Orioles, they got Sugano Morton, and then when it all fell apart, Kyle Gibson. There are players that I would say are at the Morton level or higher, but are. How many pitchers are there that I would give a postseason start to? There are three, there are four. And that's kind of the line I draw is like, is this guy a postseason pitcher or are you going opener? And I'm going opener after Michael.
Grant Brisby
King. See, I can go.
Sam Miller
Down.
Grant Brisby
Yeah. I think Lucas Giolito is probably, like, on the free agent side. Like, I would give him any. I think he could be a perfectly cromulent fourth or fifth.
Sam Miller
Starter. Fourth or fifth starter?
Grant Brisby
Yeah. Yeah. But I mean, that's okay. So you're talking. I think we're talking different contexts when we're talking about the Orioles needing pitching. They want someone to start a game one or a game two for them. Okay, that's. I'm thinking about the Giants who.
Sam Miller
Have their Logan or a game three or a game.
Grant Brisby
Four. Yeah. Okay. No, we've squared that circle. I think. I think you're right. I think if you're the Orioles, you know, you don't have your. Your anchors. I mean, depending on how you feel about whatever in the heck it was Trevor Rogers did last year, you know, you still want someone to give him help atop the.
Andy McCullough
Rotation. Yeah, that trade looks a lot better a year.
Grant Brisby
Later. Holy schnikes. Yeah, I made fun of that for a long time, and I was.
Sam Miller
Wrong. Well, it does look a lot, lot better. I mean, I. By the end, I sort of came to be a believer in him, but also it kind of looks a lot worse because Kyle Stowers. Right. Was like the throw.
Andy McCullough
In.
Sam Miller
Yeah. And probably offensive season in the National League last year, quite.
Andy McCullough
Good. Yeah. Better than Peter.
Sam Miller
Lonzo. That's one of those weird trades where everybody. Everybody feels like they won in that one. Is Bradish. Bradish is coming.
Andy McCullough
Back. Yeah, I think. Well, Wells is coming back or has, you know, like. Yeah, these guys were, you know, pretty good for them a couple years ago, but that was. They had arm surgeries, you know, about John.
Grant Brisby
Means. Is he Is he still.
Andy McCullough
Around? He might be our third.
Sam Miller
Mic Radish. So Bradish was good again last year, but in such a short period of time, and then he. He was out again, so. But that, you know, he's a good pitcher. We'll.
Andy McCullough
See. Yeah. Grant, can you take us home with some Jeff Kent.
Grant Brisby
Talk? Sure. My biggest takeaway, as it involves me personally, which most takeaways do, is that for a long time I was a little bitter about my status as a professional baseball writer. What I mean by that is since the year 2011, I've been a professional baseball writer. I have not held a different job since 2011. I have gotten my health insurance since then by writing about baseball. And yet I wasn't in the professional organization for baseball writers until 2019 when I joined the athletic, which means that I don't get a Hall of Fame vote. I've been writing about baseball professionally since 2011. I've been covering all these players, but I don't get a Hall of Fame vote for a while. And that bothered me a little bit. It wasn't like in the front of my mind, but it was like, okay, you know, whatever. So they said it was a fan until 2019. That's why I didn't get in. I get it. And whatever, I, like, made peace with it. But Jeff Kent was the first time where I really realized why those rules existed. Like, I had no business voting on Jeff Kent because he was there when I became a baseball hardcore.
Sam Miller
Nerd.
Grant Brisby
Right? He was there. I'm watching Jeff Kent 90% more than I'm watching 99% more than anyone else in baseball. I'm watching Jeff Kent more than Jim Thome. I'm watching Jeff Kent more than Ken Griffey Jr. Alex Rodriguez. I am laser focused on Jeff Kent, and he was very good at baseball while I was watching him. Does that mean I can put myself in the context and try and. Well, you know, I'm going to step back and take this 30,000 foot view of what he really. No, I can't do that. He was just a part of the Giants narrative that eventually evolved into a new ballpark and success and all that stuff. So I can't disentangle it. I can take myself out and look at the war and say, yeah, you know what? He's pretty darn good second baseman. My biggest problem with him getting in is that there are a lot of better players who aren't in. But to me, he was the story of baseball in the 90s. But I don't think that was the story of baseball in the 90s. That was to me, to me, the rando who was on Usenet groups for the first.
Sam Miller
Time. Jeff Kent, fine. You know, like, he was around 50% in his last go with the writers. Not quite, but almost 50%. Those guys always get in eventually in the veterans committees. And given 15 years, which is what they used to have, maybe he would have even gotten there by the writers, but probably not. But maybe he's a perfectly credible candidate. There are. There are many worse candidates that get elected process wise. It doesn't feel like the veterans committee should be jumping in this quickly. You know, like you give them the. The. It seems like the veterans committee should be about guys who. A whole generation has passed since they were rejected. And having Kent immediately in the hall of Fame after The writers spent 10 years saying, Nah, nah, nah, nah feels a little odd to me. So that's maybe the one. The one sour note I felt about it. It felt like a weird process. But I'm a big hall guy. And by big hall guy, I don't just mean that I believe that lots of players should be in. I just think the hall is designed to be big. It's, you know, the. The way the voting works. They just keep ask. They're like kids in the supermarket aisle where they just keep asking for a Kinder bueno until finally someone says yes. It's just ask, ask, ask. They give you tons of chances to be in the hall of Fame. So because of that, a Harold Baines can be a no a hundred times, but then one day he becomes a yes. And so just the way that they selected guarantees it's going to be a big haul with lots of people who you might not have thought were hall of Famers until one day they were. So Jeff Kent clearly is better than many hall of Famers. I have no problem with him being in.
Grant Brisby
There. I know what you're saying, though, because what you're describing is a veterans committee that has the. The decades built up so now they can reflect properly. And I would think that should help someone like Don Mattingly or Dale Murphy, because in my mind's eye, I'm thinking back to what they did and how they were perceived while they were playing. Those guys weren't just all stars. Those guys were baseball. Those guys were like, if they were the free agency were the same as it. As it was or as it is today, those are the guys who would be getting, you know, the, the 500 million, the 600 million, the $700 million contracts. Those guys were baseball. And then when you strip that context from them, you just look at the raw stats. You can go, you know, especially with Murphy. Yeah, I can see it with. Yeah, I can see it. Combined with. You don't understand how good this guy was back then or how he was thought of in the game. That's. It feels to me like those should be the guys who are getting in now. And it's not, It's. I mean, McGriff was sort of like that, but not even close. Like, Mattingly and Murphy were star stars. Star Capital S stars for a.
Andy McCullough
While. It's increasingly difficult to explain to normal people why Harold Banes and Jeff Kent are in the hall of Fame, but Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens are not.
Sam Miller
In. It's pretty easy to explain why.
Grant Brisby
Barry Bonds to a normal.
Sam Miller
Person. I mean, I get the Don Mattingly, I get the Don Mattingly comparison, but everybody understands. A child understands why Barry Bonds isn't in the hall of.
Andy McCullough
Fame. Right? But then they ask a follow up question about what about the guys who did steroids who are in the hall of.
Grant Brisby
Fame. None of them. There's none. What are you talking.
Andy McCullough
About? I mean, that's.
Grant Brisby
That'S. Do you have breaking.
Andy McCullough
News? I mean, that's. Yeah, you know what I mean? Like, I guess you're right, Sam. I guess that's, that's fair. I think. I just feel like I don't care either way, you know, Like, I think it's perfectly reasonable that the punishment that, you know, players have for, you know, using performance, dancing, drugs is they don't get to have this really nice weekend and don't get to be honored and that, you know, okay, whatever, like, but also if they put them in, it's like, yeah, they're, you know, Barry Bonds is probably the greatest player who ever lived before, you know, Shohei Ohtani was born. So, like, yeah, it's, you know, he probably should be in the hall of Fame in the sense of you're trying to tell the story of the game, but if you're saying that the punishment is, you don't, you know, part of the punishment is you don't get this. It's like, all right, you know, fair enough, whatever. Like, I'm not, you know, judge and jury. I just think like when you see the news story, you know, Jeff Kent makes it and your friends are like, why is Jeff Kent in the hall of Fame? And you're like, whoa. I mean, he was 55 win player. And they're like, yeah, but he's like, what? Like, why is, why is Don Mattingly not in there? And it's like, well, he was a 45 win player. And they're like, what is the win? Like these. They're not pitchers. What are you talking about? I just think it's harder to explain it to normal.
Sam Miller
People. It has struck me for a long time that it's odd to me that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have not tried anything new to get themselves.
Grant Brisby
Support. Like Philip Rivers. Like you're talking like a Philip Rivers.
Sam Miller
Thing. Well, like, no. With. Yeah. I think, I honestly, I think that's where this idea came in. Because Roger Clemens did. He pitched for the Sugarland Skeeters several years after, after he'd already been on the hall ballot and it was clear he wasn't getting the support. I believe he then came back, did a little Sugar Land Skeeters tour, and there was talk about maybe he would pitch for the Astros again. Like Jim Crane wanted him to do something in September or something. There was speculation about like Clemens could reset his clock, you know, and so instead of being off the ballot three years ago, Clemens would be on like year three now of a new, of a new ten year window. And since it seemed like his support would only kind of go up, maybe not fast enough, but it was only going to go up, that seemed like a reasonable strategy to make the hall of Fame. And so that, that was kind of where I think, what planted the seed in me to think, well, why don't. Why is he just sitting at home being bitter? Why doesn't, why. And, and obviously like him pitching in the majors at 49, that's not the main thrust of what I'm getting at. But I'm not saying that there is a viable strategy for Barry Bonds to rehabilitate his image or to get voters, first the writers, now the veterans committee to put him in the hall of Fame. But I'm surprised he's not trying something. Like, why doesn't, why doesn't he try something? Why doesn't he try being.
Andy McCullough
Nice? Alex Rodriguez is trying and I don't think it's going to.
Sam Miller
Work. I don't think it's going to work either. I'm just surprised to see him lay down and take it. Like, I'm surprised that they're. His only response to this is to privately think, well, I belong in there and they suck. Like, go out there, do some.
Andy McCullough
Stuff. I mean, based on all the reporting, that's kind of who Barry Bonds is. I mean, that's kind of what makes Barry Bonds. Barry Bonds is. He just is like, oh, you don't. You don't agree. We'll, like, kick rocks on the.
Grant Brisby
Surface. And obviously, you know, human beings are complicated cocktails, but he seems happy just to bike around and.
Sam Miller
Not. I don't think about baseball. He doesn't seem happy at all. I don't.
Grant Brisby
Know. I think he seems.
Sam Miller
Happy. Did you. The Atlantic just did a big profile of Barry.
Grant Brisby
Bonds. Oh, I didn't see.
Sam Miller
This. Yeah. Called what do you think of Barry Bonds now? Which is a reference to the profile of Ted Williams. Completely missed retirement squire in Did.
Grant Brisby
Thomas Chatterton.
Sam Miller
Williams and Barry Bonds, sure. Aspects of his life. He's just living it. But he is still complaining about petty stuff and refusing to talk to reporters. And I mean, come on. He's not a happy.
Grant Brisby
Man. Happy that he's away from baseball. Happy to not think about baseball.
Sam Miller
Again. I agree with Andy that nothing would work. But let's just say that Barry Bonds went to a PR firm, a reputation management firm, and said, hey, I'd like to get in the hall of Fame. Can you do something for me? Do you think that that firm would go, no, we can't, or do you think they would come up with, like, a binder full of.
Andy McCullough
Ideas? The thing is that Alex Rodriguez is running this playbook. Like, Alex Rodriguez has successfully rebranded himself as sort of dour, selfish, you know, prima donna into kooky guy who basically acted like a dour, selfish prima donna because he was insecure and didn't really know how to express himself or be around people. And now he's just like, kind of acts like a wackadoodle on TV from time to time. And I think it's helped him, I think more. I think he kind of. He got over saturated. There was a period of time where people were like, I love a rod. And now it's kind of like, all right, just like, maybe a little too much rod, you know, this week. But I think he has, like, successfully changed the conversation about what his Persona is, and it is not going to make a difference with the.
Sam Miller
Voters. And I agree with you that Bonds is not getting in the hall even with a great PR firm. Probably with a rod. There's a little bit of a difference because a rod, some people draw a distinction between test, you know, pre testing, steroids and post testing. And a rod was not only a post testing, steroids guy, but twice post testing. So that's a. There are some people who would draw that line. But. But also, while you're right that a Rod's not going to get 75% of the writers to put him in the hall of Fame. It would not surprise me at all if this reputation reset gets him in in the veterans committee because he is a bit more of a, you know, like, he is a welcome liked person in the.
Andy McCullough
Industry. He's also, like, trying to buy sports franchises and stuff like that. So, like, you know, he's also like, he's way more in the public eye ob than Barry Bonds was. I mean, Bonds came back as a coach for a little while and that was, seemed to be kind of not particularly successful, which, like, you know, it's probably kind of hard for someone that good to, like, be, you know, a good coach. I, I, I can understand that, but yeah, I, I don't know, I, I just think that the kind of like the trying to change the story that just doesn't jive with everything I've ever read about Barry Bonds. He's just always sort of been like, you don't like me, that's your problem.
Grant Brisby
Dude. Can I take us home With Roger Clemens, former major league teammates on the 2012 Sugarland ski. Let's remember some.
Sam Miller
Guys. Was Scott Casimir there.
Grant Brisby
Yet? Scott Casimir team, yes. Before, you know, and he pitched in.
Andy McCullough
2021. He made a good chunk of money for himself.
Grant Brisby
After. Yeah, he came back. We have Alex Cintrone. Remember that guy? I remember that guy. Jason Botts, Aaron Bates, number one. Remember this guy? Tim.
Andy McCullough
Redding?
Sam Miller
Yeah. Oh, yeah, I do.
Grant Brisby
Remember. That's a, Remember that guy? Par excellence. All right, this has been episode number 197 and we've reached the part of the episode where I stall in vamp until we know Friday when we're coming back. We're coming back on Friday, baby. That's a normal schedule. We'll be back on Friday. We'll be talking about baseball, talking about the big tatis for Lyndor trade. We'll see you.
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Podcast: The Windup: A show about Baseball
Hosts: Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, Sam Miller
Date: December 15, 2025
Episode: 197
This episode of “The Roundtable” focuses on offseason moves across Major League Baseball, with a spotlight on the Toronto Blue Jays’ acquisition of Tyler Rogers. The hosts analyze the Blue Jays’ offseason strategy, discuss the predictability and logic behind recent free agent contracts, and branch into the Orioles’ headline-grabbing signing of Pete Alonso — examining its implications and Baltimore’s controversial approach to building a roster. They close with reflections on Hall of Fame voting and legacy in baseball.
The hosts highlight Tyler Rogers’ consistently excellent, if unflashy, performance as a reliever.
Discussion centers around how free agent valuations have become increasingly accurate — with Rogers’ contract being one of the major “misses” this year.
Andy notes Rogers is, “one of the flashier throwing guys there is. He just doesn’t throw hard.” (10:25)
Reliever contracts have become increasingly formulaic (three years, set AAV), suggesting “the market is solved...to an extent” (Andy, 10:44).
The group agrees: While many Giants fans doubted Rogers due to his unconventional style ("when it doesn't work, it looks like it shouldn't work"), his performance repeatedly proves doubters wrong.
Discussion pivots to the Orioles’ $155M signing of Pete Alonso, juxtaposed with their ongoing aversion to investing in pitching.
The group reiterates: “It’s really hard to win consistently if you don’t have average pitching or better,” pointing to league data and historical examples (19:35–20:49).
Alonso wasn't the expected big-budget Orioles target, but his consistent power makes their lineup better.
The trade-off between lineup investment and pitching neglect prompts skepticism about the Orioles’ long-term competitiveness.
Grant recalls the 1990s Cleveland teams: amazing lineups undone by mediocre pitching. He sees parallels with the Orioles’ current roster.
Sam provides nuance: “The problem with the Orioles’ current team-building structure is that on the pitching side you have cascading failure...” (28:07)
Grant laments not having a Hall of Fame vote during the Jeff Kent years, reflecting on fandom and objectivity.
Sam notes the process issues: “It doesn't feel like the veterans committee should be jumping in this quickly...having Kent immediately in feels a little odd...” (42:10)
All agree that public understanding of Hall of Fame decisions — why certain players like Jeff Kent or Harold Baines get in while others are left out — has gotten harder to explain to the average fan (45:04–45:32).
This episode provides insightful, often humorous analysis of MLB’s evolving offseason strategies, player valuation, and the ongoing debate over legacy and the Hall of Fame — all wrapped in the hosts’ signature conversational style.