The Windup: The Roundtable | Are the Mets in Trouble?

Podcast: The Windup (The Athletic)
Hosts: Grant Brisbee & Sam Miller
Episode: #175, "Are the Mets in trouble?"
Date: September 12, 2025

Episode Overview

In this sharp, lively episode, Grant Brisbee and Sam Miller take a deep dive into the late-season collapse of the New York Mets, examining both analytical and emotional angles of team slumps. Using the Mets as a gateway, the hosts explore perennial playoff questions: Are the Mets really in trouble? How much faith can you put in rookie pitchers in October? Is a home run-happy offense doomed in the postseason? Can an offense like the Brewers’ “ground attack” ride infield hustle all the way to the World Series? The discussion is intellectual, tongue-in-cheek, and full of baseball history, data, and memorable storytelling.

Key Discussion Points

1. Mets’ Recent Collapse: What Happened?

• Recent Performance: The Mets were just swept by the Phillies in punishing, uninspiring fashion. Over the last 81 games, they're playing at a 68-win pace—even though they'll probably still sneak into the playoffs. (03:01)
• Team Breakdown: The Mets are above average at every position except one and boast a top-three NL player in Juan Soto. While the bullpen’s been league average, and their starting rotation is patchwork, the team on paper isn’t terrible.
• Mysterious Case: “The mystery is just like, well, how do you explain a pretty good team that has pretty good players can play this bad for half a season straight? And what does it tell us about them?” – Sam Miller (03:16)
• Key Stats: Since June/July/August, the Mets’ team ERA has drifted close to 5, with run prevention and pitching quality declining rapidly. (05:14)

2. Are the Mets’ Rookies a Playoff Liability?

• Pitching Shakeup: The Mets’ current rotation is increasingly rookie-reliant, with three top prospects giving the team quality innings while established arms like Kodai Senga falter.
• Risk or Reward? Is starting multiple rookie pitchers in October a dealbreaker?
  • Data Dive: Since 2000, rookie starters in the postseason are nearly perfectly mediocre—40 wins, 41 losses, 4.05 ERA vs. 3.98 league postseason ERA. So, “a rookie is not an automatic liability.” – Sam Miller (13:13)
  • Selection Bias: “If this rookie is pitching in the postseason, they've probably proven something to their manager a little bit more.” – Grant Brisby (13:13)
• Memorable Examples: The hosts discuss Solomon Torres’s infamous collapse (for the 1993 Giants’ playoff hopes) and Madison Bumgarner’s evolution from exhausted afterthought in 2012 to postseason hero in 2014. (11:05, 19:20)
  • Quote: “It makes me realize that it's really just about the moment. And not the overarching category, the halo over a certain guy.” – Grant Brisby (20:02)

3. Can Home Run-Heavy Teams Win in October?

• Yankees Under Fire: The Yankees, critiqued for relying too much on homers and sloppy fundamentals, are a case study in high-variance offense. (21:15)
• Public Critique: “[The Yankees make] a lot of mistakes in the field. They don't run the bases very well. If they don't hit home runs, they don't have a chance to win.” – Buck Martinez, via Sam Miller (22:06)
• Analytics Perspective: More home runs actually correlate better with postseason success than other offensive markers. “It’s harder to get three hits in a row than it is to get a home run against great pitching.” – Sam Miller (24:20)
• Grant’s Conversion: “My conversion moment came when I just looked at Giancarlo Stanton’s baseball reference page... Every time Stanton’s up, you’re thinking he’s going to hit home run. …That just says, okay, great theory, guy. But… now you’re talking about tired pitchers. …They’re going to tire a fastball right in the middle… I think even is where I’m going for.” (23:05)
• Why Fans Doubt Homers: The drama and sustained tension of small ball feels more “real” to fans than the sudden, random-seeming nature of the home run. But the math doesn’t lie. (28:48–29:51)

4. The Brewers’ “Ground Attack”: Skill or Fluke?

• On-Field Chaos: The Brewers “pressure offense” produces tons of infield hits, forces errors, and avoids double plays—adding up to nearly an extra out per game and explaining their unexpected offensive success. (33:38)
• Skepticism: Both Grant and Sam are wary, likening it to “BABIP luck” or overperformance in one-run games—skills that often regress to the mean in following seasons. (37:12, 39:10)
• A Key Distinction: “It feels like if a team’s success was largely dependent on how many home run robberies their outfielders… do you really want to live two feet above the outfield wall?” – Sam Miller (41:09)
• Playoff Uncertainty: Can these fluky, hustle-driven advantages survive the precision and elevated defense seen in October?
• Reluctant Admiration: “I have come to love the Brewers… but… beating out infield hits. You say it's a provable, repeatable skill and maybe it is. From my, to my uneducated mind, it feels bab epi.” – Grant Brisby (37:12)

5. Playful Postseason Scenarios & Baseball Lore

• Funniest World Series Possibilities: Brewers-Yankees? Padres-Mariners? The “Vedder Cup” and the unique place of teams seldom in the spotlight. (42:00)
  • “[Padres and Mariners] play an interleague series called the Vedder Cup because Eddie Vedder was surfing in San Diego when he got recruited to join Mookie Blaylock…” – Sam Miller (42:15)
• Movie Tangents: The hosts riff on period-piece baseball movies and share revealing moments from their own pop-culture upbringings. (44:44–47:17)
• Baseball Writing Origins: Waiting for Boof—how Grant’s blog title inspired years of creative energy. (15:43–16:36)
  • “If I didn't land on it, [the blog title] very well could have just said screw it.” – Grant (16:00)

Highlighted Quotes & Timed Insights

• "The mystery is… how do you explain a pretty good team that has pretty good players can play this bad for half a season straight?"
  — Sam Miller ([03:16])
• "If this rookie is pitching in the postseason, they've probably proven something to their manager a little bit more."
  — Grant Brisby ([13:13])
• "Rookie is not an automatic liability. …I could refresh your memory on any number of great rookies who had great postseasons..."
  — Sam Miller ([15:00])
• "It makes me realize that it's really just about the moment. …It's how is this guy feeling in October 2012. Right. More so than the mythos…"
  — Grant Brisby ([20:02])
• "My conversion moment came when I just looked at Giancarlo Stanton’s baseball reference page... He crushed them."
  — Grant Brisby ([23:05])
• "It's harder to get three hits in a row than it is to get the home run..."
  — Sam Miller ([24:53])
• "Beating out infield hits, forcing infield errors, it feels to me like it's in the same category as… [Batting Average on Balls in Play]."
  — Grant Brisby ([37:12])
• "It feels like if a team's success was largely dependent on how many home run robberies their outfielders… do you really want to live two feet above the outfield wall?"
  — Sam Miller ([41:09])
• "Padres and Mariners play an interleague series… called the Vedder Cup because Eddie Vedder was surfing in San Diego when he got recruited…"
  — Sam Miller ([42:15])
• "If I didn't land on it, very well could have just said screw it."
  — Grant Brisby ([16:00])

Engaging, Memorable Moments

• Opening Big: The episode opens with musings on the meaning of life before weaving seamlessly into the existential woes of Mets fans.
  • “I think the meaning of life is that when you’re 10 seconds away from your own death… you feel at peace with it. I think that’s the project of life is to be ready…” – Sam Miller ([02:02])
• Spreadsheet Surprise: Sam brings a spreadsheet of rookie playoff starts, revealing the actual numbers behind the myth. The data’s mundanity is its own twist.
• Storytelling and Personal History: Grant’s story of Waiting for Boof—blending baseball, theater, and chance—shows how baseball narrative is written in real time by fans.
• Baseball Analogies: Comparing indeterminate hustle outs to living life “two feet above the outfield wall”—the precarious edge of baseball luck.

Segment Timestamps

• 02:30 – The Mets collapse and playoff outlook
• 06:49 – The Mets’ rookie-led rotation: risk or opportunity?
• 11:05 – The mythos (and data!) of rookies pitching in October
• 15:22 – Rookies who triumphed or faceplanted in the playoffs (e.g., Boof Bonser)
• 21:15 – Yankees, homers, and playoff “fit”
• 24:20 – Projections, evidence, and the fallacy of the “wrong” offense
• 33:38 – The Brewers’ ground attack offense explained (and doubted)
• 41:09 – Analogy: outfield wall robberies & living on the slot edge
• 42:00 – Funniest possible World Series matchups, the Vedder Cup
• 44:44 – Movies, pirates, and baseball’s pop culture connections

Takeaways for Listeners

• Are the Mets in Trouble? The answer hangs in nuance: Yes, recent play is bad, but foundational talent remains; the wildcard is, which version takes the field in October?
• Do Rookies Doom or Save in October? Not by default—just like any pitcher, it’s about current stuff and composure. The postseason memory is written by moments, not labels.
• Is a Home Run-Only Team Doomed in October? No—if anything, power plays up in the high-run-prevention environment; the drama of small ball is often fan illusion.
• Can Luck-Driven “Hustle” Offenses Survive October? Skepticism remains. What works for months may collapse when every opponent is sharp and locked in.
• It All Comes Down to Timing, Not Type: No one archetype guarantees October survival; resilience is found in the moment, the matchup, and a dash of randomness.

For fans who missed this one: the discussion is both a primer on current playoff debates and a love letter to baseball’s mix of numbers, myth, and the human element. Recommended for Mets fans in need of catharsis, plus anyone wondering whether power, speed, or just plain timing wins October.