← The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Roundtable | Interesting manager/front office hires & a little Free Agency talk
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- [00:01]
Andy McCullen
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- [01:19]
Sam Miller
This is the Wind.
- [01:33]
Grant Brisby
Welcome to episode number 191 of the Round Table. Grant Brisby here with Andy McCullen. Sam Miller. Andy, how you doing?
- [01:41]
Andy McCullen
I'm good.
- [01:41]
Grant Brisby
Sam Miller, how you doing?
- [01:43]
Sam Miller
The same.
- [01:44]
Grant Brisby
You guys fired up for game nine? No, we got. We got no more baseball to talk about. We got to talk about theoretical baseball. What are some of our hobby horses here? What are some of our favorite topics? We talk about the Dodgers ad nauseam. Who's an ace?
- [01:59]
Sam Miller
Absolutely.
- [01:59]
Grant Brisby
Andy's narrowed it down to Tarek Skubel, Logan Webb, a couple others. But I feel like the Rockies get a lot of play here, right? They're fasting for a lot of reasons. The Rockies just hired Paul DePodesta, who was previously. And you can't make this up with the Cleveland Browns. Maybe, like, honestly, if you had to rank all North American sports teams, that might be like, the organization that has a better, like, one above the Rockies. And we have to talk Rockies. I know it's a big off season. I know there's a lot going on, lots of managerial hires. I gotta know. Andy, do you have any. Any chatter? Do you have any GM chatter? Exec chatter?
- [02:35]
Andy McCullen
No, I was. I'm kind of. I've been kind of decompressing this week, however, I've talked to, I mean, I guess have a little, a little chatter and I. It's a surprising hire for a variety of reasons. I think it's a very interesting hire. It is kind of rude to suggest that the rockies remain living 20 years in the past, but when you hire Paul DiPodesta in 2025, that does kind of feel like you are living 20 years in the past. That's not to say that he can't do the job. That's not to say that he might not be the man who sort of changes things. And look, he's got a wealth of experience in a variety of different endeavors. Obviously he was a formative figure for the Moneyball. A's a really important part of Billy Beane's front office. You know, he had probably less notable tenures with the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets. And then he's been doing something for the Cleveland Browns for like about a decade. And I'm not totally sure what it, what the job was. He might have been in charge of everything. He might have just been consulting on things. I think it's shifted as time goes on and we haven't, we don't really have a full accounting of like, what exactly was going on there. During his time with the Browns, they made what is generally considered the worst trade in, I don't know, North American professional sports and acquiring DeSean Watson for a variety of reasons that we don't really need to get into. But I think, I mean, look like it's an, it's an interesting hire. And especially after, you know, it appears that Amiel Suade and Matt Foreman, the two sort of prime candidates, basically either turned down the job or walked. It's fascinating. It really, it's one of the most interesting hires they could have made outside of Adam Otovino, which would have also been pretty fun.
- [04:30]
Sam Miller
I agree that it, it was a headline grabbing move. It was a really interesting choice. I used to edit the Baseball Prospectus annual and we would have to get like a sort of semi celebrity ish person to write the forward. And you're talking like Gabe Kapler, right? Assistant or you know, assistant GM in an organization or a pitching coach in an organization, someone who like is in the game and you had like various people that you kind of knew and you'd make the list and then you'd have like, someone would go, what about Eddie Vedder? Like, he likes baseball and that's the dream. Like, you don't know if he can Write a forward. You don't know if he can respond to a deadline.
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Andy McCullen
Does he have an email?
- [05:13]
Grant Brisby
You know, like, it'd be super rad.
- [05:16]
Sam Miller
If, like, Eddie Vedder wrote the forward for the annual. And deep Odesta feels like, when I heard it, I thought that was kind of like, he's the Vetter, you know, like, he's a big celebrity. He left the game to go do, like, this weird challenge in a different sport, and now he's coming back to baseball to do the only weirder challenge of conquering altitude. And that's how I first processed it.
- [05:39]
Andy McCullen
It's like the. It's like the reverse Theo Epstein. I couldn't fix the Browns, so I'm gonna see if I can not fix the Rockies.
- [05:49]
Sam Miller
Yeah. So that was my first reaction to it. That's how I processed it. And then I read that he was just their third choice, so he wasn't their Vetter at all. Like, that's what sort of is throwing me is like, he only got it because two other guys turned them down first. And so now, instead of thinking Depot is like, the. The flashy star pick that they managed to, you know, to lure back, now I think, oh, like, he was damaged goods, and he was hanging around, willing to accept a job no one else did. I'm not quite sure now how to process it, which of those it is or where in the spectrum it is.
- [06:26]
Grant Brisby
I just think it's funny that if you go on, like, literally any sports reference page, not. Not baseball reference, you just start clicking around the. At the top bar, you get baseball, you got football, you got. And you start picking teams at random. You know, the New York Giants, the New Orleans. Like, who could be. What team is funnier than the Browns in this scenario to go to the Browns for a decade?
- [06:47]
Sam Miller
It's not like. I feel like. Like, Carrot Top is, like, the only.
- [06:53]
Grant Brisby
Yeah. It's just. It' like, man, a focus group would have. Like, if you convened a focus group to say, what is the next worst professional sports organization in North America? Like, they might have come up with the bronze. That's what. And I know that Dave Podesta has a great history. I know that Jonah Hill has become a star probably because of his star power. Right? And so you just got to wonder, I don't know, what are you. What are you doing here?
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Andy McCullen
But also, like, that movie came out 15 years ago almost, right? Like, and I think, what is. And it's so much time has passed that I bet if you ask the average baseball writer, like, I mean, this genuinely the average, you know, BBWA member who has joined since 2015. They might not know that Peter Brand is a composite character based on Paul dipodesta because Deep destitute did not want to be involved in the production of the film. You know, it would be like hiring Voros McCracken as your pitching coach. Like, it's just, it's not to say that he can't do the job. It's just. It's more just like, like it's not a contemporary or, you know, like, I don't. Relevant is not the right word. I'm struggling to sort of. I guess what is, what is interesting is like, I, I don't know if anyone knows what Paul DiBenessa thinks about baseball, right? And if you hire Amiel, if you hire Matt Foreman, you might not totally know what they're going to do, but you know where they've been working. You can talk to people in their organization about, like, how they think about the game. You could extrapolate, like, okay, here's what, you know, Matt Foreman would do with Deepenesta. Like, who knows? Like, who knows what he could be. He could be thinking that second baseman still bat second. Like, we don't know. Like, that's the time period from which that he sort of came of age. And so I, I just think it's. I think it's going to be really interesting.
- [08:40]
Grant Brisby
I can make a good faith argument for this. And it's. It has to do with when he left. When D. Podesta left the game. He left the game, I believe, in 2016, to, to work with the Browns. That's not just a name. That's just. You're throwing a name out there at random or a number out there at random. Like, that's that the year when everything changed. That's, you know, 2015, 2016. That's when stat cast. That's when all this batted ball data starts coming in. That's when saber metrics becomes more. You're analyzing delivery motions and spin rates and launch angles and all that stuff. The game has totally been revolutionized since he left. Right? And there's a part of a good faith part of me that thinks maybe the person who fixes the Rockies has to ignore that and get back to, you know, patient zero of how do you win at altitude? Like, we can do all this stuff and you've got a guy who's been thinking about it for 20 years. Like, even when he's in baseball, he's thinking, you know, what I would do here's how I would get back the home field advantage. That's my only good faith. But it's also like, I can talk myself into it. Like, it's almost like it's someone who's inside the box and yet outside at the same time.
- [09:46]
Andy McCullen
Yeah, he's a very smart person who's had a lot of success, you know, and was, like, really on the cutting edge of stuff. You know, it's just. It's. He's. He's not been a part of the modern. What we would describe as the modern game. And that, in some ways can be an advantage, and. And in some ways, it certainly will be a hindrance. But the argument for him is he's like a super bright guy who's gonna probably do all the things that we've talked about, you know, on this show about, like, doing some version of, you know, the. The Apollo project for the Rockies. I suspect, you know, he would be involved in that, but it's also just sort of like. Like, I genuinely do not know what he thinks about baseball. He hasn't talked about it in a decade.
- [10:27]
Sam Miller
Him going back to baseball at this point feels a little bit like him going back to, you know, going to the NFL in the first place. It. It feels like an intriguing challenge for him, but it's not clear whether it works or not. I remember when Theo Epstein had won, you know, the World Series in 2016, there was discussion like, well, yeah, what could he do now? Like, how does he elevate his career from how now, you know, he won for the Red Sox, won for the Cubs. And one of the things that people would sort of float out there is like, oh, wow. Well, if he could make the Rockies a winner, that would really be the capstone of his career. And I don't know, it kind of feels like the Podesta is looking for those same sorts of challenges. He just doesn't have the. He's not Theo Epstein. He doesn't have the track record where you, like, believe it is definitely going to happen. I don't know. That's sort of. That was my sense of what's happening here is like, oh, it's a very interesting career intellectual challenge for a guy whose career had already previously been defined really early. He's, like, looking for a way to, you know, do something new. That's what I thought until I heard that two other GMs had turned him down. Maybe he was just the, you know, third place. I don't know. I don't know what to make of that. And I, you know, I, so I.
- [11:36]
Grant Brisby
Yeah, I don't know because you have to think if you're one of these other candidates in the Rockies approach you a. It's, it's a very unique opportunity, but also like this might be your shot. You don't know how many times you're going to get another chance. And it just seems like the. They're. They're maybe making it more difficult for themselves than they could be.
- [11:55]
Sam Miller
It feels like there's a little bit of an early off season trend of administrative roles or manager slash GMs being hired that surprise you? It's definitely like not like, well, we've got the same 25 resumes floating around and we're going to pick from them. And there's been a lot of talk about the managerial hires. I thought it was really interesting that like a couple weeks ago there were like two ongoing managerial pursuits going on. One of them was for Albert pujols, like the 20th greatest player of all time. And the other was for a guy who had played in high school and no hire. And it like to, to think of those two guys applying for the same job really showed how big the range is for who's a contender now. Like the different philosophies that teams might have about who they want to hire to be their manager. Neither one of them had experience in the job itself and they had had about as different of life experiences within the game as any two people could possibly have. And yet they were both going for the same, you know, position in different organizations. And I thought that was really interesting. And then as the hires have trickled in, it feels like there's been a couple that were like, oh yeah, that guy, definitely that guy. And then a bunch of surprises. And that's kind of interesting.
- [13:14]
Andy McCullen
I think the pool of managerial candidates is probably pretty wide because it's very difficult to identify who is going to be a really good manager until they get into the chair. I think that's probably something that we've, we've seen as a variety of different archetypes have sort of filtered through as the go to, you know, you need a guy with bench, you know, who'd been in the minors for a long time. That was like a, a thing that you needed to do. You need a guy who can develop players. You need a guy who's been on a big league staff. You need a guy, you know, who can connect to stars like you. It's just, it's a, it's a sort of role that shifts with, you know, each and every day. And the people who are best of it are people who adjust to it, you know, as time goes on, it's just hard to identify who those people exactly are. And so I think, if anything, the, you know, sort of some of the out of left field hires reflect kind of a lack of probably dynamic candidates who had, you know, previously been managers, if that makes sense. I think like the Twins hiring Derek Shelton was sort of just like, all right, well, that's the last time I'll think about this, probably for, you know, a good two to three years. Whereas, you know, the Giants hiring Tony Vitello, you're like, wow, this is quite interesting. And both have probably the same amount of, you know, chance of working for a variety of different reasons, but, like, there's not a ton to really think about when some of the retreads get hired. I do find the, the special assistant to manager pipeline to be quite interesting because the special assistant job is one where it's, you know, a guy's kind of like, hey, my. My career finished up and I kind of want to be around and help out. You know, can I do that? And you're like, yeah, sure, you can do that. And sometimes it's just a guy doing that, you know, like Brandon McCarthy did for a couple of years with the, with the Rangers. And then sometimes it's like they're the manager all of a sudden. You know, Kurt Suzuki had that role. You know, that was Craig Stammons job with the Padres. I mean, the DoD going to probably offer some version of that to Clayton Kershaw. And it's like, I don't think he's going to manage, but now he's in the managerial pipeline, you know what I mean? So it's just. It's a weird. It's just hard to identify candidates now, I guess.
- [15:26]
Grant Brisby
I was at the Tony Vettel Oppressor and I was scheduled to ask the last question. I was waiting for the microphone and they passed me over for the last question. Guy named Andy Baggerly got to ask it. I think they took the senior writer thing a little too seriously. Whatever. I'm not bitter. Talking about podcasts. Anyways, my question was going to be, what did you think the qualifications were for major league manager before you started this process? What are they now? So now I'm asking you, Andy, what the heck does it. What is it? What is the qualification for a manager these days? Because all these hires have me thinking, well, you need someone to manage the vibes. Nope, you need someone to. You need Someone who's been in the room, someone who's been like, there's, there's no consensus now.
- [16:03]
Andy McCullen
Yeah, I don't think anyone really knows. I think it's as wide open as, as it's ever been. In part because, you know, there's been candidates who didn't really make sense as managers who have had success, like, for as much, you know, I think fair criticism as Aaron Boone has taken.
- [16:21]
Sam Miller
Right.
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Andy McCullen
Like he's been a pretty good manager.
- [16:23]
Sam Miller
Right.
- [16:23]
Andy McCullen
Like he knows in general knows how to run a game and like the team goes to the postseason most years he came straight from the broadcast booth. The reigning and likely two time manager of the year in the National League, depending on how the voting goes, is Pat Murphy, who is like the ultimate hard ass college coach, you know, and he and Boone manage in completely different styles, have completely different backgrounds, and they're both fairly successful. And so I just think within that spectrum, trying to identify what you're looking for, it's really based on, you know, context and like, you know, with the Padres, like, Craig Stammon has good relationships with their star players. He knows the organization very well. He has a good relationship with, with A.J. preller. Like, I'm sure he probably can figure out how to run a bullpen. He was in a bullpen for 12 years. Like, right. Like what?
- [17:18]
Sam Miller
I don't know.
- [17:18]
Andy McCullen
Those might be the qualifications. Like, can you work with your gm? Do your stars like you? Do you understand what leverage is? All right, you, like, we'll let, we'll talk to you. You know, that's enough to get in the door. Yeah, I just think the job is really amorphous at this point.
- [17:33]
Sam Miller
A few years ago, I wrote a piece about how players who changed teams had started to outperform their projections relative to players who stayed on the same team, which it had always been the opposite. You know, like the team you were on knew you best and continuity was seen as a, as a, as a, as an advantage. And if they were willing to let you go, they probably knew something about you. They knew, you know, you were worth letting go, etc. But a few years ago, it sort of flipped. And the thinking was it flipped because when a team goes out and gets you, they probably see something in you that they can fix that they've seen something in your profile, in your traits that can be, you know, tilted just a little or tweaked just a little or, you know, coached up. And so now it changes the way you think about the big league club where the big league Club is still part of the player development process. You know, players are developing throughout their whole career, and even at the big league level, you've got, you know, the coaches and the manager can develop certain skills or abilities in players based on, you know, what they're doing or what they're leaving on the table. That is all to say that, you know, when I think about why Tony Botiello makes sense for a team, I don't think, oh, it's the X's and O's. I don't think even that it's the vibes. I think that the idea is to build, you know, kind of a player development culture at the big league level, which is more in line with what you would expect from a college program. Do you guys think, is that a. Is that a leap or is that true? Is that kind of the manager's role is going to kind of be more like shepherding a group of coaches as they coach players up?
- [19:13]
Andy McCullen
I mean, I think that's part of it. Way more so than it used to be. Yeah, absolutely.
- [19:18]
Grant Brisby
It feels to me that there's only one qualification and that it is to be able to manage and accommodate many different personalities. Right. Which is sort of the description of management everywhere in some. In some sense. But I. I do feel that with all these different hires, if you can whittle away their differences and get down to what they're expected to do, at their core, they're all talking about who's resting the bullpen before the game. They're all talking about, if this situation comes up in the seventh inning and they bring in this guy, we've got this guy on the bench. Like, those aren't the surprises now, but it is. Okay, We've got one millionaire who's unhappy because, you know, his defense is slipping and he's hearing about it. And we've got one rookie who's struggling. He's over 20, even though he's a top 10. Like, that's the job. That is just knowing which buttons to push. I just don't think you're gonna know who's good at it unless they've already done it. Which is why I'm confused by this trend towards hiring just, you know, this guy, you know, he's in the pipeline already. I. It feels like there's one qualification, but hiring someone unknown is the worst way to go about it. So I must be misreading something.
- [20:28]
Andy McCullen
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Sam Miller
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Andy McCullen
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Sam Miller
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Andy McCullen
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- [20:54]
Grant Brisby
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- [20:55]
Andy McCullen
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- [20:58]
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- [21:28]
Grant Brisby
All right, Sam, you had. Was it Sam or I don't care at this point brought up free agency. And not the concept writ large, but just this free agency before the impending lockout or the last free agency of freedom, as it were. And we're seeing our own Tim Britton every year. He does a great article with contract predictions. I go back to it constantly, but it feels a little high this year. It feels I'm seeing the numbers and I'm going. And this is coming off an off season where Alex Bregman had trouble getting paid, Pete Alonso had trouble getting paid. So are you expecting the numbers to come down a little bit, or does Tim sweet, sweet Tim Britton have it closer to accurate?
- [22:13]
Andy McCullen
Well, I don't want to criticize Tim's methodology because he's been very good at this, you know, and has really established himself as one of the, you know, is a very trustworthy resource. My issue with almost all of the projections is I don't know who's going to be paying them.
- [22:31]
Sam Miller
Right.
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Andy McCullen
Like, he's got Kyle Tucker at 12 years, 460. Who's the team? Why? Who's the team that offered 11 years for 10? You know what I mean? Like, I just don't. I. I think that all of these, these, the projections are based on basically the idea that what happened in the past will set the market for the future. And while that is obviously the way that, you know, free agency generally tends to work, I feel like in my amateurish reading of the tea leaves at the outset of the winter, I suspect it's going to be what's the one that's bad for players? Bull market bear.
- [23:09]
Sam Miller
Market bear is the bad one.
- [23:11]
Andy McCullen
I think it Might be bearish. I think it might be grizzly, as they say. Just a couple things. I mean, Shane Bieber opting into his deal was a bit surprising. Jack Flaherty opting into his deal was maybe less surprising. But then also, you know, he opted into I believe like 1 year 20 million and the projections have him at getting a 4 year, $80 million contract on the free market. I'm not sure why he would get that when he got a two year deal last year and then was not particularly good this season. The Cubs kind of, you know, selling Andrew Kittredge back to Baltimore and then allowing Shota Imanaga to become a free agent suggest that they're probably not going to be fishing on the deep end of the free agent pool. And so it just feels like whether you want to chalk it up to worry about the lockout, whether you want to chalk it up to sort of just concerns about the variety of free agents, I just am not sure who are the teams who are going to be giving out the nine figure deals this winter. That's the thing that I'm having trouble sussing out.
- [24:22]
Sam Miller
Yeah, you're always kind of looking for clues in the first few transactions and you can overreact to them, but you have you figured the agents and the teams all have kind of a sense of what the chatter is like and the first few moves kind of often look like, you know, trying to get a jump on the market as they think it's going to develop. And I think that Bieber in particular is the one that was really quite a jolt I saw, you know, like reading all the, the sort of free agent top 50 free agent projections, etc. It looked like you know, 3 and 60 ish for Bieber. And what he essentially opted into was 1 in 12 because he, there was a buyout involved. So basically he took a 1 year 12 million dollar deal. You know, probably not a pillow contract type situation. Probably more like a, well, don't want to end up, you know, going out for free agency and end up unemployed in spring kind of a situation. So that maybe that won't mean anything. Maybe, you know, maybe that's nothing. Maybe it was just one guy who was skittish. But it's a tea leaf. I think that the, so the big uncertainty is whether the looming lockout next year slash potential for work stoppage in 2027, whether that that is itself going to create market conditions this year. And everything I've read has been slightly different on that. Everybody's got a different theory for how it's going to work. The most convincing thing I think is that no one wants to be a free agent next year, probably with a lockout. And so you take the deals like Blake Snells deal with the Giants had a one year opt out and what, Cody Bellinger, I think yeah, maybe he had a one year opt out. Like the one year opt out for players. Pete Alonzo one year off to Alex Bregman, one year off.
- [26:13]
Andy McCullen
Chapman possibly.
- [26:14]
Sam Miller
Maybe he did and then. Yeah, he was. And then resigned the extension. And that's not going to be as appealing to players this year because they don't want to opt out 12 months from now and then have to negotiate with the lockout. So that's one issue. But then the other question is like if there was a real work stoppage that, you know, like let's say the owners won, right? Let's say that the finances of baseball's salary structures get completely upended, then who's betting on that? Like who's shorting? Who's buying? Who does that? Like, do you want to. If you're a player, are you trying to lock in a deal? Now if you're a team, are you trying to avoid salaries that could hamstring you in ways you don't expect under a different CBA in the NBA? I think a lot of times you want to sign after the CBA because the max contracts go up and so then you all of a sudden end up being the highest paid player in basketball even though you're not the best kind of a thing. Does that come into play? And so that's all uncertain. And so then the uncertainty in this year is does that uncertainty affect any of this year's uncertainty?
- [27:30]
Grant Brisby
Would you think that it would be more the players who were more apt to get one of those pillow contracts like a Blake Snell or a Pete Alonso that they are going to be more amenable to a 3, 100 type deal or like something where it's just big years up front but you're not tethered for too long. How do you think that players, agents are going to react to that? You don't know.
- [27:53]
Andy McCullen
Okay, that's what I'm saying for maybe the first.
- [27:56]
Sam Miller
No. 1. I don't think there's a consensus on how to play this.
- [28:00]
Grant Brisby
Yeah.
- [28:01]
Andy McCullen
And I think some of it is the. You're limited. You know, if you're an agent, you're limited by the conditions of the market. You're limited. Like all these players are flawed as all the players are in free Agency every year in a variety of ways. I think that because Sam, your point of no one wants to be a free agent next year, right? I think that would hold some water. But then why is Bieber not going for long term security? Right? Like why is Flaherty not going for long? Flaherty maybe is different. And I think there are some issues with the specific pitcher market in that there's probably going to be a glut of guys looking for pillow contracts or only being offered pillow contracts in part because you have, you know, someone like Dylan Cease and Zach Gallen who seems sort of like clear pillow type guys, right. Like come here for a year, two years, do the, you know, the Carlos Rodin type of contract or whatever, the Blake Snell type of contract and then you know, you have Michael King who's like similar to that and then he's got health issues that he needs to, you know, sort of demonstrate that he can get through a season. And I just think there's going to be a lot of like clogging in that lane where it's. There's not many guys on this market who you'd feel really good about giving a five year contract to as a pitcher and they're probably going to be looking for longer than that at a rate that is pretty significant. I don't know. I think the precedent of some of these pillow contracts makes teams, I mean teams love those, those are winners for teams, you know, and they are, they can be really great springboards for players, but they can also be ways to sort of be locked in perpetuity. I think Pete Alonso comes to mind, you know, where there's this, there's this idea that all of a sudden he's going to get, you know, five, six year contract and I just don't understand why, like he signed a two year deal last year with, you know, with the Mets and like if he demonstrates a real willingness to leave the Mets, which maybe he will be more open to doing that this winter, you know, he could probably go elsewhere. But I just don't totally see why a year later when he's a year older. And it's kind of, it's not like he's unlocked a new sort of level of play. He's the same really good player he was last year. Why all of a sudd sudden the team is going to barrel in and offer six years. I don't know. I could be wrong about that obviously, but I just am struggling to identify like who are the teams spending money? Who are the teams who are going to be really in there throwing around nine figure deals.
- [30:26]
Grant Brisby
If you were looking for an interesting canary in the coal mine, if you're looking for maybe one of the more interest like to kick this off because I have no idea how to read this. You can read this in one of any hundred ways. Shoto Managa is a free agent now and the Cubs were staring down the barrel of a three year, $57 million option, which to me from the outside seems eminently reasonable. That sounds like, you know, like, okay, so we all know that Shoto Managa was in like the book Baseball Super Superstars 2026 Squishy ball is still available. But like even if he's not a superstar, that's the going rate for a guy. And I feel pretty confident that he can be at the very least a guy with a ceiling above that. So unless the Cubs like have video of that Twilight Zone gremlin like rummaging through his arm like it's an airplane wing, like, I don't get where this, that's a reasonable, eminently reasonable contract. And if they're saying no, we need that money to go resign Kyle Tucker or no, we're just going to sit on it because we're the Cubs. I just don't understand how that helps anyone. And it makes me confused about the whole offseason because if they know something, what do we not know?
- [31:41]
Sam Miller
Then they made the qualifying offer to him and he seems like a guy that people think ought to take it. And so if they, if he does, then they, instead of 3 and 57, they have him for 1 in 22, which maybe you prefer that maybe that's a better situation for you. But then again, makes me Wonder, well, does 2027 have anything to do with that? Like are, are they planning around the potential for a short season in 2027? That's what I don't know. Imanaga. I'm sort of glad that they decline that option because Bieber and Flaherty as players being skittish would be half the story. But now teams turning down short, you know, fairly, you know, moderate and short thing contracts now makes this a two way signal though. Again, the fact that they had the ability to just offer him a qualifying offer after that makes it a little bit less.
- [32:41]
Andy McCullen
I'm not trying to be rude to Imanaga here, but it reminds me of at some point in the past I asked why a team didn't pursue a player more strenuously and the response I got back was he sucks. And I don't think Imanaga sucks, to be clear. I think he's a good pitcher, but also you can look at it and say, well, he's going into his age 33 season. His strikeout rate took a pretty significant dip last year or this coming year. He was not really ready for prime time when the postseason rolled around and he had a.375 ERA. Maybe we don't want to give that guy $60 million or so over the next three years. That's like not unreasonable if you feel comfortable with your pitching Dev. But that's kind of the nature of going after free agent pitchers is you can always make a case for why not to send someone. And I think team after team made the case to not sign Blake Snell. And you saw kind of the, you know, the upside of actually paying him the money. He's quite good when he's right. I don't know because, you know, there's a skittishness in some ways. But then like, the brewers made a qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff, which if he accepts, would they be paying him $32 million, effectively because he had a mutual option that they declined. It had a $10 million buyout. Now, in my understanding of their accounting, they viewed that money as basically a sunk cost. You know, so. But you know, the brewers are like willing to pay Brandon Woodruff $32 million, you know, for one season. So, like there's money there. I just think it's all short and not none of it long. It feels like.
- [34:16]
Grant Brisby
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- [34:47]
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- [35:32]
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- [35:49]
Grant Brisby
I just feel so out of touch thinking because to me, when I think let's just round up 360 for Imanaga. That feels like a player with with not just value to the Cubs, but trade value to teams that miss out on some of the free agents this winter. And all of a sudden it's January and you missed out on Farmer Valdez and you missed out on Dylan Cease and you're looking for someone who's got a little bit more of a ceiling. I would consider trading for Imanaga at Alex Cobb's rates. You know what I mean? I. I don't think that that's too outlandish. I don't see how this helps the Cubs. But again, maybe I'm just overrating Imanaga and his his FIP was really bad. His whip pip was under one, which is amazing, but maybe that's the defense. I don't know. I'm just probably trying to justify him and his inclusion in Baseball Superstars 2026 available at Scholastic Book Fairs now.
- [36:35]
Sam Miller
Yeah, I'm just upset at how cavalierly Andy, you know, brushed aside the sunk cost of Woodruff's option. It is a sunk cost. It's irrelevant to they're not paying Brandon Woodruff $32 million. They're playing. They're paying old Brandon Woodruff, who's gone, long gone, never coming back that contract $10 million. This is a whole new thing. Anyway, not relevant to the meta discussion of free agency.
- [37:01]
Andy McCullen
Hold on, explain. Is this like the Monty hall problem where I don't understand. It's frustrating. I. Yeah, there's words that I feel like I know the meaning of, but don't understand the meaning of and it's possible. I don't know what a sunk cost is.
- [37:14]
Grant Brisby
Have you ever looked up Mike Francesa talking about fungibility?
- [37:18]
Andy McCullen
You know how long it took me to figure out what optionality meant?
- [37:21]
Grant Brisby
But I mean, if you have it and you just look up fungibility, Mike Francesa it's great. It's just. He gets the exact wrong definition, but he perfect anyways, Sunk cost. That's like me on a contract in this podcast.
- [37:36]
Andy McCullen
Yeah, let's talk about the fundies. Sam wrote something wonderful about the death of the fundies and I would love for him to try and explain it to our listeners.
- [37:45]
Grant Brisby
And also Grant, yeah, I have it in a tab. Sam is one of the few that gets tab status.
- [37:51]
Sam Miller
As you both know, as most people in my life know, people who are close to me and pay close attention to my mental health, I've been sort of losing my mind over the death of the fundys this year. The Fundamentals Every time I turn on a game, things are bad, man. And I'm trying not to be crazy, you know, like old, old man about it. But it does seem to me like like I have two, two heuristics now. One is always run on every left fielder. They have not made a good throw in three years. Not one good throw. The other is if you're a baserunner and a ball goes into the corner, you just have to assume that the fielder is going to fumble it. It's an automatic now assume it. Just take the extra base. They're fumbling it. But beyond that, fundamentals in baser running, fundamentals in player decisions, they all seem to be a little bit goofy. I might be imagining this. I could definitely be imagining this. But in a effort to put some kind of reason behind it, I laid out my reasoning for why I think fundamentals have fallen. And on the defensive side, I think it's that players are playing out of position or in fact drafted really without a position, that you are raised in the minors to be a multi positional player. Because of that, you don't take the sort of ownership of mastering one set of skills the way that a player who only plays one position for 15 years would. You're no longer a craftsman. Exactly. You're more of a generalist. And because of that, you haven't internalized all of the tiny, tiny, tiny little things that you do to make sure you don't make any mistakes. So that's on the defensive side. On the baserunning side. Hesitate to say this, it's A ridiculous notion. But I think their helmets are too loose. They're running around with loose helmets, and I think it's driving them slowly insane.
- [39:45]
Andy McCullen
The amount of evidence Sam provides to back up the loose helmet theory is really compelling. Go to pebble hunting and read is 100%. What's going on? He wrote this. And I said instantly, yes, that is it. Oh, my God. How did I not realize this? They are not wearing properly fitted helmets.
- [40:06]
Grant Brisby
Jung Huli is a classic helmet go off guy. Drives me nuts. How is that? Don't you want to, like, have it snug? It's like, I'd like, you know, like, it's like one of those things that dogs wear thunder blankets. Like, I think a helmet should be like that.
- [40:20]
Andy McCullen
So they can't see they're peripheral.
- [40:22]
Sam Miller
They can't see constantly falling over their eyes. You see guys constantly running with the helmet over their nose. Because they're not just a little loose. They are hugely loose. They are wearing your dad's suit loose. The helmet is like lapping itself. Okay. And so, yes, they're constantly having to discard helmets mid play. They're having to hold the helmet while they're running, which is a bad idea. That's not how you run the fastest. And the helmets often come off at the worst time. They trip on their own helmets. They kick their own helmets. They sometimes kick their own helmets forward. So the helmet is both tripping them up from behind and then presenting an obstacle in front. I feel like watching them run with these helmets feels like watching my nephew skateboarding Jankos. Like, it's not the best equipment for the sport.
- [41:28]
Andy McCullen
I'm going to use a phrase in honor of Paul D. Podesta returning to baseball. I'm going to use a phrase from his era. The most high profile, toot bland of the World Series. Addison Barger getting doubled off second base. His helmet is obstructing him. During that play. His helmet was not properly fitted. It was it falling off his head as he was diving back into second base.
- [41:51]
Sam Miller
People saw the helmet fly off after. This was not a case where the helmet flew off after his momentum stopped at second, which is common, has always been common. This helmet was falling off from the minute he left his feet because it was balanced atop his head like a cupcake. And as he jumped, it lifted.
- [42:14]
Andy McCullen
It's.
- [42:15]
Grant Brisby
It's like one of those little derby hats a cartoon character wears. And then when they get surprised, it like goes up and wiggles a little bit. No, I. I'm all in on that there. I Dropped a link in the chat to basketball player from the 2000s. Marquez Green, good basketball player. He's got baggy shorts on. And they're not just baggy shorts, they are like. It looks fake, it looks photoshopped, but it's not. And that was the trend back then, this trend. It feels like it's been going on for years, but it also feels fairly recent. I remember Eduardo Nunez was a big bat or helmet guy.
- [42:51]
Andy McCullen
It used to be like, you know, Nuni was a guy who was known for that. Now there's like four guys on every team. I mean, you know, Sam provided a gif of it. Was it Josh Naylor whose helmet came off on a take? I mean how.
- [43:07]
Sam Miller
That'S. That is. That's an amazing one. My all timer helmet moment is in. I think it was last year. Dom Smith's helmet came off on a home run trot.
- [43:22]
Grant Brisby
There are a lot of ways he could get older. I mean there's a lot of different rabbit holes you can go down to. I feel like this is a perfectly healthy one and you know, I think it's a healthy one and it's a cause that we can all fight for and root against.
- [43:36]
Sam Miller
I one time saw this was in an earlier piece I wrote too because I've been on the helmet beat for now 18 months and I'm exhausted by it. But there was a game where Dansby Swanson doubled and you could see he was, he was like celebrating on the bass and his helmet was all like swishing around, you know, and, and he changed. He switched out his, his helmet. I don't know if he does that every time, but he had a hitting helmet and a base running helmet which was very confusing to me too.
- [44:03]
Grant Brisby
Does he switch helmets out before he like starts running to first? That'd be a good bit.
- [44:07]
Sam Miller
Would slow him down a little bit.
- [44:09]
Grant Brisby
The bat boy just like you know, like a relay runner running alongside him with a new helmet.
- [44:13]
Sam Miller
I focused a little bit on Bob Seymour, the Rays rookie. A lot of guys nowadays will swing out of their helmets, which didn't used to happen at all but now a lot of guys will swing out of their helmet. But Bob Seymour was so aggravating to me because his helmet was so loose every time, so predictably loose that I swear he was adjusting his helmet mid swing. Like, I swear he was preempt like he was swinging as he kind of like, like was holding onto it. Like I couldn't find the photographic evidence that this was happening. But he had to adjust his helmet so quickly after Every swing that it was like, I don't think his, his head is in the swing. I don't think his mind is in the swing. It's like, it's like if you have an injury that goes off every time you, you know, swing and you're just anticipating that, that, that poke of pain in the swing. It's like that. But with his loose helmet, I think.
- [45:08]
Grant Brisby
An article loose, looser, tight helmet, the players weigh in with a hundred thousand views.
- [45:14]
Sam Miller
Yeah.
- [45:14]
Andy McCullen
Or seven.
- [45:15]
Grant Brisby
That nail it.
- [45:15]
Sam Miller
Yeah.
- [45:16]
Grant Brisby
Or say, well that's, that's the life we lead.
- [45:18]
Andy McCullen
But that, I mean it is, it's true. Like it's what's happening. Like it's, it's, it's a very. Once you see it, you can't unsee it. And now I understand sort of the, you know, the, the hole that Sam has been sort of digging deeper into over the past 18 months.
- [45:35]
Grant Brisby
I watch a lot of youth soccer. Some may say I watch it more than baseball, but I've watched a lot of 12 year old girls soccer games recently and there is, I've noticed players, they will be mid juke, winding up for the shot in the game, putting their hair behind their ears. They forget a hairband or you know, they don't realize it in the middle of the most aggressive like showing off your skills. Play hair behind the ears. It's just, you think you don't do it, but you do. You think. I, I don't know if I've said this podcast might listen back and I've said it 500 times like it's just one of those things. So I'm, I'm all in on, on the Miller theory theorem as I'm calling it, I'm coining it the Miller Theorem. What do you think, Sam?
- [46:23]
Sam Miller
Good. Yeah, let's, let's do this.
- [46:25]
Grant Brisby
All right.
- [46:26]
Andy McCullen
I just want to say be to. In order to hit the quota to talk about the Dodgers briefly, they did their now annual tradition of getting tanked and going on Mookie Betts's podcast. Not many headlines. Not many headlines this time.
- [46:40]
Grant Brisby
I don't think they waved. Who do they wave? They waved.
- [46:44]
Andy McCullen
Justin Dean.
- [46:46]
Grant Brisby
Justin Dean. Yeah, their center field in the Giants got him. So I don't know. According to these charts, every team with Justin Dean has won the World Series in the last 365 days.
- [46:56]
Andy McCullen
So if these trends continue.
- [46:58]
Grant Brisby
If these trends continue, you know, Justin.
- [47:01]
Sam Miller
Dean, probably everybody knows this, but more World Series rings than career hits.
- [47:07]
Grant Brisby
Oh, I wonder how many, how many.
- [47:09]
Sam Miller
People, not counting pitchers? Zero. It's got to be zero. I guarantee you it's zero. I'm not. I'm not like, it's. There's a. A reasonable chance that he ends his career this way. Like, not a. Not a hundred percent chance, but a reasonable chance that, you know, he ends his career this way.
- [47:23]
Grant Brisby
Terrence Gore had 16.
- [47:24]
Andy McCullen
I know Terrence Gore has three World Series rings. And, yeah, he had. He had 14 hits in 2019, and he has 16 career hits. So, yeah, he.
- [47:35]
Grant Brisby
He had a World Series ring before his first hit. So that was what I was thinking of. But he eventually, you know, Justin, that's not that.
- [47:44]
Andy McCullen
Yeah, I don't know how unique that is. I mean, Raul Mondecy Jr. Had a world Series ring before his first hit.
- [47:50]
Sam Miller
I'm not saying before, though. I'm saying that Justin Dean had a chance of. And also, it was at Alberta. Was it?
- [47:56]
Andy McCullen
Sorry, but yes, His. His name at the time was Raul.
- [47:59]
Sam Miller
Montessi Jr. Did he not. He didn't even. He didn't even have one in the postseason in that.
- [48:03]
Andy McCullen
I don't know if he played that postseason.
- [48:06]
Sam Miller
Okay. You know, like, ruining all the suspense. Herb Washington won a ring and never had a hit. So there we go.
- [48:13]
Andy McCullen
He played in game three. He pinch hit in the fifth inning. Did not get a hit. Justin Dean would have. He would have been the guy who appeared at every shopping mall in the South Bay over the off season to sign autographs. You know, and fans would be like, oh, my God, it's Justin Dean. And now it's just going to be Will Klein. And I. I feel terrible for the people of Tarzana.
- [48:41]
Grant Brisby
That's a good bit. All right, this has been episode number one. I feel terrible for the people in Tarzana. That is a tagline if I've ever heard one. All right, episode 191. We'll be back on Monday and we'll not talk about the World Series. Or maybe we will. Maybe we'll talk about it. Can the Dodgers pull it off? All right, we'll see you then.
- [49:06]
Andy McCullen
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- [49:43]
Grant Brisby
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