← The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Roundtable | Last day of the regular season madness & ranking the Wild Card matchups
00:47:04
Loading summary
Transcript220 lines
- [00:00]
A
Banking with Capital One helps you keep more money in your wallet with no fees or minimums on checking accounts and no overdraft fees. Just ask the Capital One bank guy. It's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. He'd also tell you that this podcast is his favorite podcast too. Ah, really?
- [00:18]
B
Thanks.
- [00:18]
A
Capital One Bank Guy. What's in your wallet? Term supply see capitalone.com bank capital1na member FDIC the market's uncertain, revenues tight and hiring on hold. That's why results driven companies are using upwork to keep work moving.
- [00:35]
B
Go to upwork.com today and start hiring proven freelance talent. Fast. No bulky overhead, no rigid long term contracts. Just the right expert right when you need them. Work smarter and faster with Upwork. Go to Upwork.com now and find your freelance expert. That's Upwork.com post a job for free and get started today avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows home, so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app Download today. This is the Wind Up. Welcome to episode number 180 of the Roundtable. Grant Brisby here with Andy McCullough and Sam Miller. Andy, how you doing?
- [01:42]
A
I'm tanned, rested and ready.
- [01:45]
B
Hell yeah. Yeah. Sam Miller, how you doing?
- [01:48]
C
Too soon to say.
- [01:49]
B
All right, fair enough. Fair enough. Sam, let me ask you another question. How did you feel about game or day 162? What do we call it? Game 162? Day one. It's not day 162. How'd you feel about the last day of the season?
- [02:02]
C
I understand why they do it the way they do, but I do miss the tiebreaker games. I don't know if this is realistic, but in the absence of tiebreaker games, I, I would like to not know who has the tiebreakers in advance. There would have been, I mean there, there really would have been a lot more tension if, if playing for a tie was still, you know, like, you know, had tension to it for these teams. So for instance, again, I don't know if this is realistic, but imagine a scenario where there are maybe eight potential tiebreakers and you don't know which one is in play that year. And after the last out of the season, they open the envelope and, and decide what the tiebreakers are, then Sunday would have been more tense. You know, like the Yankees winning their game after the Blue Jays had already won and looking morose and sort of just moping off the field. We wouldn't have had that because they wouldn't have known if they had the tiebreaker. Same goes for, you know, the Astros, Tigers, Guardians, Melange. It all would have been kind of more interesting if we hadn't known that winning the tiebreaker was already like a fait accompli for those teams. So that's my, my suggestion.
- [03:13]
B
Fait accompli. Have never said that out loud.
- [03:16]
C
I know I got that one right. But I'm not sure that Melange was correct. I don't actually.
- [03:21]
B
No, that's Beyonce's sister. Right? Sorry. No, but yeah, I, I love your idea. I feel like it's more chaos, but in a, a helpful way because I feel like if the Guardians hit that grand slam right at the point they hit that grand slam, they were in, right. The Tigers had lost. That grand slam was a cherry on top of what should have been the whole Sunday to me, like, and I don't know how to create that, but it was like at the time, like, ah, we're in. Oh, we're down big. And extras. Oh, a great or not grand slam, but three run homer. Excellent, excellent, excellent. So, yeah, I apologize for saying grand slam earlier.
- [03:59]
C
Yeah, you just love. All home runs are grand to you. Any slam is grand to you. I actually thought that, you know, here's the, here's the sort of perverse thing about that, that walk off home run that the Guardians had to finish their season because it meant nothing to the standards, because the standings, because the tiebreakers had already been, you know, calculated and were well known. That home run meant nothing to the Guardians technically. And instead I heard it, I was listening to it and I listened to it thinking that poor guy making his major league debut just gave up a walk off home run in his major league debut. It actually felt like rotten, you know, like, oh, like the guards get nothing out of it. Guy making his major league debut, he's got to live with that for the next six months. That's his entire line.
- [04:46]
B
I will just say it meant something to the Guardians because it's. You always celebrate your first home run of the season.
- [04:53]
A
You guys are making an excellent point because not doing a bit. I have no idea what you're talking about. The Guardians won on a. Like, I stopped paying attention once it was done. I Didn't watch the end. I'm seeing now that they won. Good for them.
- [05:08]
B
It was a wacky extra inning game.
- [05:10]
A
That had no interest whatsoever. I was locked in on Mets, Marlins and Reds.
- [05:17]
B
Just say Eagles. Well, no, just say Eagles.
- [05:19]
A
I don't need to worry about the Eagles. They're undefeated. The offense is fine. They're totally fine. There's nothing thing to worry about. It's not gonna be like two years ago, but I was just, yeah. Locked in on the Mets, Marlins, World Series, and then the whatchama. Who's it? The Reds, Brewers. Can I say something about the Marlins real quick? So there was like some slight sort of shade thrown at the Marlins in that they were kind of, they were like hyped up for this series, like pretty clearly. And you know, a little bit it was online and like the, the Mets broadcast, they were not like sneering at it. I think they were just remarking upon it.
- [05:56]
C
No, no, I think they were salty. I actually, I noticed it. I noticed it throughout the weekend.
- [06:02]
A
Yeah. I will say this though. Like, for me, the fact that the Marlins cared about this series is such like an, like a resounding victory for them as an organization and that they have like, motivated their players to be invested in trying to care through 162. And you know, people are like, oh, you're not like, you know, the Mets aren't a real rivalry with the Marlins. And it's like, are the Marlins supposed to just like get up and be like, yeah, we're losers, like we're a joke franchise, like, we shouldn't even try, like it's a good thing, like they are trying to win. I think it's a testament to, you know, the culture that like Clayton McCullough, you know, my cousin has built there. And so like, you know, there's just this sort of like weird reaction to giving a. That like feels, I don't know, like this is the point of the endeavor is to like try and win and play. And so like, yeah, they were motivated to spoil the Mets season. They think they're better than the Mets. Like, they think they're a better baseball team. And the mets spent like 300 million more dollars than them. So yeah, they enjoyed that. Like, that's the point of the endeavor.
- [07:06]
B
I can't imagine getting mad at that. The whole point is to get up, put your pants on and care about something.
- [07:11]
A
Yeah, I think there's just a. There's just a sort of. There's just a sort of knee jerk reaction to certain types of Franchises that whenever they attempt to care, it's like, you guys are losers. Poverty franchise. It's like, I don't know man, like you couldn't beat the Marlins to get in the postseason.
- [07:28]
C
There is a petty reaction that humans feel watching other humans try. And I will admit that there were moments where I found the Marlins enthusiasm, or maybe their broadcasters enthusiasm a little discordant to the moment.
- [07:46]
A
It's very funny.
- [07:47]
C
Like for instance, on Saturday their closer Tyler Phillips came in and you know, the Mets season is on the line, the Marlins season is not on the line. And Tyler Phillips comes in to try to get a met out in high leverage. And the Marlins broadcaster said something like, this is the biggest plate appearance of Tyler Phillips career. When you think about what's on the line for the other team. And I thought that's a funny thought. Like that's a funny sentiment. Like the stakes are not any higher for Tyler Phillips than they would be any other time. But for the other team they are. So I kind of chuckled at that. I chuckled at the Marlins broadcasters call of the last out of the game where it seemed like they had accomplished something to myself. I quietly chuckled. And so like there is that human tendency to think, ah, look at these guys caring. Ah, like you sneer at them. We're Gen X, you know, like we. Andy's not Gen X, but we're Gen X. We don't care about stuff. That said, like the broader. In like a more broad experience of the weekend, I found it pretty cool that the Marlins were caring. The broadcast was excited that the players went out afterward and you know, took a team photo which the Mets broadcasters were making faces at.
- [09:08]
A
They were a little.
- [09:09]
C
Yeah, but it made for a good series. It's far better than the alternative. The tendency to judge people for caring is not a good tendency. It's not one that like I think humans should lean into. And so great, the Marlins brought it. Their starting pitcher did pitch from the wind up with a runner on first base. So they might have been slightly checked out.
- [09:33]
A
Who knows, the dugout could have called that. You never really know what's going on with those kooky Marlins. One, one thing about Tyler Phillips and then we can move on to stuff people actually care about. But just that entrance on Saturday night, you know, Phillips, he slaps himself in the face. And I was watching the Mets broadcast and Keith and Ron were unprepared for this guy coming in. They were like, whoa, he's hitting himself. Like they were, they were like, wow, what's up with this young man. Like they were kind of taken aback by that. And I, I enjoyed it. And again, I don't want to do not put in the paper that I said Gary, Keith and Ron were all that salty. I really didn't think that. I think that they were just sort of taking, I think that they were presenting it as a, if anything a contrast with the kind of lifeless Mets performance. You know, like this Mets team who has everything to play for and shows up and just clanks the ball off their glove and goes scoreless in, you know, the last game of the season. And then you've got this young team with theoretically nothing to play for, you know, playing as hard as possible. And that just, it presented an interesting contrast to, to put a capstone on, like truly a historic collapse for the Mets.
- [10:41]
C
It's also, you can't take away the, the context that the mar. The Marlins were not the Rockies this year. This was not trying to redeem 115 loss season. On the last weekend the Marlins outplayed the Mets for the final four months. They weren't really playing for anything for almost any of the season. And yet they did it very well. They played very well. They didn't fold. They had a strong second half and they almost caught the Mets in the standings. And so this is the, this is the culmination of four months of somehow getting each other to care about a season that probably wasn't going to go to the P.O. you know, they weren't going to the playoffs. Something in that organization, in that clubhouse, in that dugout, managed to get them all caring throughout it. And so this didn't come out of nowhere. This wasn't just like a deus ex machina for the Marlins final weekend. You know, they were paying off like a kind of a four month investment.
- [11:40]
B
I will say that if I'm a closer, I don't start my outing with getting hit by someone, even if it's myself. Right?
- [11:47]
A
It's.
- [11:49]
B
I, I was going to like say that's anathema to me, but I've never said that word out loud too. Sam's got all the fancy words. Anathema. Anathema. All right, that would be anathema to me, but I will say so you brought out the Rockies. That's a good point. Because that is if the Rockies came into the weekend series with the Giants having a chance to go to 81, 81, 500 ball, baby. That's, that's the 20, 25 Giants. If the Rockies came into that series and said screw you we want to take one game. We want to take the final day. This, we don't care. We want to make it so that you have lost more games than you've won. Sort of like us, we're kind of like brothers, like that, right? And if they came in and they just went on all cylinders and that made that their goal, that's perfectly fine. That's cool as hell. That speaks to the culture of the Rockies. Like, no, we're not going to sit down and just get dominated by Logan Webb in the last eight season.
- [12:38]
A
I'm gonna drag you to hell with me. Yeah.
- [12:40]
B
Yes, yes, that is acceptable. So I, I don't find any slight. They can hype it up as much as they.
- [12:46]
C
Almost every Marlin in the dugout on Sunday is going to be there on opening day next year. This is not a team that's just like got a bunch of garbage that they're going to be like, you know, move, move, moving, churning pieces around. Like, this is the team that they're going to go into next year trying to actually make the playoffs with. So why not have a good five month narrative in your head.
- [13:06]
B
Welcome back again to the roundtable where we are talking about the MLB playoffs and of course the Marlins. Andy, more thoughts on the Marlin? Yes.
- [13:15]
A
No, can we talk about the Mets real quick?
- [13:18]
B
Oh, please. For, yeah, I was going to say for all off season.
- [13:22]
A
Well, the playoffs, the postseason will happen. These wild card series will be interesting. But like for me, with the Mets, right, like there are big issues and little issues, right. And we've talked a little bit about their David Stearns stance on starting pitchers and he's sort of clear disinterest in giving out long term deals to free agents. Right. I do wonder though, like when Yoshinobu Yamamoto's agent told Steve Cohen, stop making offers, he's going to Los Angeles and Los Angeles is just going to keep matching it. Like, just stop. Should Steve Cohen have just said, no, I'm not going to stop. I'm Steve Cohen, I'll give him a billion dollars if I have to. You know, like, and I sort of feel like, look, if you're going to give $75 million to Sean Mania, why don't you give 150 to Blake Snell? I get what the difference is, but what is the difference? And if you're going to, you know, sign Frankie Montas, right, like, why don't you sign five Frankie Montases? Because one Frankie Montas is probably not going to be available. They're going to make some changes. They're going to, you know, there's been a lot of reporting, you know, from even from just like Will Salmon and Tim Britton today that they're going to change up the coaching staff and you know, they got to figure out the culture and that, that. But at the end of the day, like is the simplest thing, is they just simply need to get elite starting pitchers. Right? Am I oversimplifying it by saying this is the simplest thing?
- [14:52]
C
Yeah, you're oversimplifying it. It's true that if they had better pitchers, they will probably would have won one more game and made the playoffs. And so at like it at this stage in the season, you can diagnose the problems and their pitching, you know, if it had been better, they would have made the playoffs. What you're basically saying is what is the lesson of the New York Mets, right, Which, which you put. And the pitching was not bad in the way that like the Orioles pitching was bad. They had a theory that they could underinvest a little bit in pitching because pitching is a kind of inexact science. There's a lot more variation from year to year by, from, from the players. Maybe it's better to invest in sure thing bats and then hope that you can develop your pitching without getting stuck spending $300 million on a guy who's, you know, going to throw 18 innings for you. That was a theory and you could say that it didn't work because they only won 83 games and their pitching was worse than their hitting. Their pitching was kind of fine, you know, like it was a league average staff. It wasn't disastrous. They did manage to develop or get some pretty good performances out of players that you weren't expecting a whole lot out of. So I don't want to defend the approach because clearly the season failed them. But it also like I think the Orioles are the poster children for like here's what happens when you don't value pitching or when you're hostile toward it more than the Mets are in general. But yeah, you're right. I think that the question of what actually restricts Steve Cohen from spending more is an interesting one. What does he have like 40 billion?
- [16:41]
A
It's like 22.
- [16:42]
C
22 billion. So the difference between, we'll have to check the markets. The difference between 200, between 350 million and say like, I mean like 650 million is nothing to him. Like it doesn't affect his standard of living at all. It doesn't even really affect his place on the, you know, the Forbes leaderboard. And so what does stop him from just spending more? Is it like, principle that he, he thinks that, you know, if he can't turn a profit, that he's not a good businessman? Is it that he's worried about backlash, that the league will, that if he, if he goes too far, the league will stop him somehow? Is it greed? I mean, what exactly is it that makes him not just say, well, I have spare billions and this is the thing I care most about in my life. The ball club, the sport. So I'll just spend whatever it takes? I'm. I'm curious. I don't know.
- [17:40]
A
The Mets are not profitable. Like, he's, he's losing money, right? Like doing this. And that's not a problem. He's never said, like, you know, he has said, you know, if you lose money, it's not good business or whatever, but he's like, clearly willing to lose money in pursuit of a World Series, I think, because it is literally difficult to spend that much money. Like, you have to do things that no one in the organization will say, this is a good idea. Like, you don't sign BRANDON Nimmo for $140 million. You sign him for $375 million. You know what I mean? Like, it's just like I've. The theory that I've had for years and years is like, it's genuinely hard to create a $300 million payroll because you have to do things that so many people in the organization will be like, what are we doing? This is a terrible allocation of resources. And so I think it's just they basically, they looked at these past couple winters and when they've looked at pitchers, they're like, we are not doing these six, seven year deals for big time starters, right? And it's like, yeah, they, they have clearly said that. What are we laughing at?
- [18:44]
C
You said six, seven.
- [18:46]
A
I don't get that. What is that?
- [18:50]
C
Move on.
- [18:52]
B
No one gets it. Move on. Move on.
- [18:54]
A
We talked about this. This is like no soap radio.
- [18:56]
C
I was not laughing at six' seven. I was laughing at Grant losing his mind in the corner of my feet. Only Boost Mobile. Boost Mobile will give you a free year of service.
- [19:09]
B
Free year.
- [19:10]
C
When you buy a new 5G phone.
- [19:11]
B
New 5G phone.
- [19:13]
C
Enough.
- [19:13]
B
But I'm your hype man. When you purchase an eligible device, you get $25 off every month for 12 months with credits totaling one year of free service, taxes extra for the device.
- [19:20]
A
And service plan online only banking with capital one helps you keep more money in your wallet with no fees or minimums on checking accounts and no overdraft fees. Just ask the Capital One Bank Guy. It's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. He'd also tell you that this podcast is his favorite podcast too. Ah, really?
- [19:39]
B
Thanks.
- [19:39]
A
Capital One Bank Guy what's in your wallet? Term supply See capitalone.com bank capital1na member.
- [19:46]
C
Fdic if you're navigating anxiety, depression, relationship challenges, postpartum struggles, or something else, you deserve care that meets you where you are. Grow Therapy is designed to help you find a therapist who fits your needs and supports the way you want to feel. They connect you with thousands of independent licensed therapists across the US offering both virtual and in person sessions. You can search by insurance provider, specialty treatment methods and more to find a therapist who works for you. Whatever challenges you're facing, Grow Therapy is here to help. Sessions average about $21 with insurance and some pay as little as $0 depending on their plan. Visit growther.com acast today to get started. That's growtherapy.com acast growtherapy.com acast availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plan okay, so they don't want to give seven or six year deals to pitchers.
- [20:52]
A
They don't want to sign Corbin Burns, right? And you saw how that works. Like the D backs are probably like rats. That has not worked out. The Yankees probably feel pretty good about year one of Max Freed, right? But how are they going to feel about year four? You know, the Carlos Rodon thing, you know, has been kind of up and down. Like there's, there's perils in that for sure. But it's kind of the best way to access elite pitchers. Even if it's for a short term. If you're losing on the back end. He's a guy who can afford to lose on the back end.
- [21:21]
C
Steve Cohen the perils of signing Corbin Burns or of giving a seven year contract to a good pitcher or to overpaying by double, the perils of those things only are perils within the framework of a realistic of a reasonable of a restrained payroll. If you once you set a limit and you say, well I'm only going to spend $350 million, then yes, you got to think is this the best way to spend the money in standard.350? I don't understand why the money is real to Steve Cohen at all.
- [21:51]
A
I think it's because they trust the baseball ops department's recommendation on that.
- [21:56]
C
Do you think that baseball ops though, if Steve Cohen walked in and said 700 million, that's, that's payroll this year, would baseball ops be like, we don't want to do it, the blogs will kill us.
- [22:07]
A
No, I don't think so. I don't think Cohen looks, I mean, again, like he's a. He don't get to be a $22 billion guy by behaving that way, right? Like, he still wants to do, quote unquote, smart deals. He's just willing to like overpay or whatever to get it done. So I don't think that he approaches it that way. I think it's like you come to him and say, hey, look, we can go after, you know, these types of players. Here's why these types of contracts, contracts don't work out, right? And it's not dissimilar to how sort of Andrew Friedman dealt with, you know, free agency in the early years of his tenure with the Dodgers when like, Guggenheim did not have the wealth of Steve Cohen. But Guggenheim had a lot of money and were clearly willing to invest it. But the Dodgers were, you know, were holding the line and, you know, did. Weren't interested in doing, you know, these sort of clearly irrational contracts. They have entered a financial realm in the past couple years where they are doing irrational contracts. There is no way that from a rational perspective, they were like, yeah, 4 for 72 for Tanner Scott. Like, yes, like, what could go wrong? You know, like this is, you know, they know what it is, but it's like, we want access to that player. We can overpay. Like, we think it'll work out and it still might, to be clear, like, they'll have them for three more seasons. The peril, as you said, of like signing a Corbin Burns is all of a sudden he's out for next year and your owner's not letting you spend, you know, the money on something else. It just becomes a matter of, you know, are you going to basically go against what all of your instincts say, how these deals work, right? To just ignore all the things you know to be true. All of the sort of strategies you use to be successful. Like, it involves like doing things that you feel like might be wrong and just understanding you can do it with the safety net of your owners largesse.
- [23:56]
C
It's interesting because there's billionaires that want to win a World Series and then there's other billionaires that want to go to space. And the billionaires that want to win the World Series, they're sort of stuck within the framework of how much other people have previously valued the thing they want. So they're stuck thinking, well, Corbin Burns is only worth $185 million. I read it on a blog. You know, whereas the guys that want to go to space, there's no pre existing number for what it takes to go to space. They're not limited. No one ever is. Like, wow, Bezos spent $8 billion going to space. Our models value that at like a 6.5 billion project. He overpaid, like he can just do whatever Cohen is. He's restricted strangely by the opinions of some baseball Prospectus writers from 19 years ago.
- [24:51]
A
Well, there also, there also is the, there also is the fact that he's in an organized monopoly. And there are some pressures there, you know, probably more soft than, you know, like actually explicit things. But like, you know, he's, he was allowed into the club and you know, you don't want to make it so that everyone in the club wants you out of it essentially.
- [25:13]
C
So you do worry about the backlash and you do worry about your own sense of like sort of your own identity that you, that your self image of yourself is smart and able to beat the game. Like you. There are these soft pressures on him.
- [25:25]
A
Two years ago they had the most expensive roster in baseball history and they missed the postseason and you know, they traded Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer. And Cohen, not in these words, is basically just like, I feel like a dingus for, you know, like financing this. Like this was a bad bet. Like I don't want to do, I don't want to do dumb things anymore, you know, So I don't know.
- [25:45]
B
Do you know that I'm in the Merriam Webster dictionary for dingus?
- [25:49]
C
I did know that, yeah. I don't, I don't think about it all the time, but when it's search.
- [25:53]
B
Up on Merriam Webster, they cite me, baby. I would just like to point out my complete obliviousness with the actual day to day operations of a billionaire's finances. I know that he doesn't just go to the atmosphere, take out 20 and go 20,456,000,792. Right. You know, so it's like he's getting the money for his lifestyle based on loans based on his net worth, which is liquid and all. Or I was looking.
- [26:21]
A
He's way more liquid than everyone else. He's do. He's, he's in a pool.
- [26:26]
C
He's got the ripping.
- [26:27]
B
Oh, baby, I love it. Okay, so this is not a Tesla stock situation.
- [26:31]
A
This is a part of his advantage is that everyone else is paying with a credit card and he can pay with cash.
- [26:37]
B
Oh, hell, then, yeah, buy the. Buy the roster. I will say if I had the money.
- [26:40]
A
They're trying.
- [26:44]
B
If I have. If I have that kind of money, I'm gonna try. If that's the choice. I'm gonna try to win a World Series in space.
- [26:53]
A
I think it was last episode. Grant, you asked Sam if he was a billionaire if he would buy a baseball team. And there was no point in asking me because obviously my answer was like, no, and you'll. No one will ever see me ever again.
- [27:06]
C
No, no, he'd be in. He'd be in Macau playing nosebleed poker.
- [27:10]
A
Yeah. No, what? I would be. Yeah, no, that's right. I would be bracelet hunting every summer.
- [27:15]
B
You would be sitting next to George Clooney in the beginning of Michael.
- [27:19]
A
No, it would be like. It would be way worse. Like, I would be sitting at the $600 deep stack, you know, at the Orleans casino, trying to win a, you know, a circuit ring.
- [27:29]
C
Earlier in the year, they had like 37 steals in a row without getting caught. Something like that. It was a. It was a record for a team. And then they got caught. And they've. Since then, they've got caught a few times, but they've always gotten caught either stealing third or being picked off. So Gary Cohen has been noting as they steal bases, that their streak of successful steals of second base, not counting pickoffs. So like on a pitch, right? Steals of six of second base on pitches they have now stolen 101 in a row without getting caught. 101 in a row. Now there is a little bit of like moral hazard there because their approach is take reckless jumps. So therefore they are prone to getting picked off. And if they, if they get picked off, that's a caught stealing. But if there's no pickoff, then they're like 12ft ahead of the play. And so they're going to be safe. So it's like kind of a little bit cheating to not count pickoffs in their case because they're so exposed to pickoffs. That's the strategy. But all the same, like 101 straight throws from the catcher to second base that were late.
- [28:42]
B
Do the Mets lead the league and getting picked off?
- [28:45]
C
That's a good question. I doubt it, but they might be up there. Let me look.
- [28:50]
B
But I mean, if they're first, like, my opinion is still reserved. Maybe they're first by two.
- [28:55]
C
Yeah, well, they did.
- [28:56]
B
If they're first by 30 then they did.
- [28:58]
C
I mean they. I don't think they are stole. They had 9090 success rate this year and that includes pickoffs. Pickoffs count as caught stealings in those cases. So the Mets are. They had. They were picked off 14 times. League average was 13 times.
- [29:13]
B
Seems like what they're doing works.
- [29:15]
C
Yeah, they were.
- [29:16]
B
Except for all the other stuff.
- [29:18]
C
They were picked off 14 times. They were caught stealing 8. 18 times. Juan Soto led the league in stolen bases Bold Inc. For the rest of his life. Juan Soto, stolen base Bold ink for the rest of his life. Incredible.
- [29:31]
B
I should have picked him for my fantasy team. I'll just say it. I'll just say it right here on the podcast. All right, let's move on to which one you want.
- [29:40]
C
How do you want to do it? You want to just do like quick predictions or what? Like do you want to talk about.
- [29:45]
B
Start with the. Yeah. Predicting one. And then you bleed into the conversation and then we lose our gas and steam and then we look at each other and then move on to the next one.
- [29:52]
C
Like always ask a question.
- [29:55]
B
Which series should I start with is what I'm asking.
- [29:58]
A
You know, start in order of who gives a. You know, guards, Tigers, sarcastic.
- [30:03]
C
Who gives a. Or. Or sincere.
- [30:05]
A
I'm going to right now rank in order of my interest in terms of.
- [30:10]
B
From.
- [30:10]
C
Let's do it that way.
- [30:11]
A
Pure spectator. Spectator. I go number one. East coast bias. Sox, Yankees Classic series. Two good teams. I think whichever team wins that series, you could reasonably say, hey, they're the favorite in the American League. Number two, Dad's Cubs. That's the classic exciting series. You've got some famous players. It'll be games during the day at Wrigley. They're both. I think they're athletic. Even though it's possible the Padres are not. They just have nice uniforms. Third, Dodgers, Reds should be what it is, but who knows. The Reds have some pitching. And then last Guards, Tigers, which we just watched last week. God bless them all.
- [30:54]
B
I just got a notification that Bob Melvin was just fired. So my day is now very, very different. But I'm still very excited about the guardians. Don't get me wrong, like guardians, Tigers is forefront of my mind. The Giants managerial situation, not so much. I think. I think you have it about right. Listen, I honestly feel like we're a little bit further removed from the Sunday night heyday, four hour Yankees, Red Sox and ESPN era. Right. I feel like there is a little bit more juice to Red Sox, Yankees now. And I don't know why, it's just, it feels like it's less, it's more organic, it feels less forced and it's just, it feels like these two teams weren't necessarily direct competition. It was Blue Jays, Yankees at the end for the title. I really, really enjoyed, I mean, looking forward to this series because they're both very flawed teams. But like you said, they're both pennant worthy if they get there.
- [31:45]
C
That's a good observation. I had not noticed that the Red Sox, Yankees fatigue had actually receded and I don't feel it anymore. Put them together, that's a good matchup. I don't know that. I think the Yankees are severely flawed team. I mean, clearly they need to survive the, the, you know, the October bullpen and you know, I mean, is there a little bit of a fall off in the rotation? I guess so. But that's the second or third best team in baseball right now. Maybe.
- [32:16]
A
Yeah. I mean they were tied for, tied for third or fourth and wins. Right. They're two teams, one more games than them.
- [32:23]
C
The offense is extraordinary. The top two in the rotation are both guys that you're happy to give the ball to in a game seven. The bullpen was. I don't know if you guys know this, but I do play basketball with other adults and, and there's guys who are tall who were always tall and then there's guys who were tall who used to be short when they were kids and used to be short, but now you're tall. That's like the secret sauce because you had to learn how to play as a short guy. And then you, once you grow into your, your, your frame now you've got the, you know, little guy skills, but big, big guy body. And the Yankees, because their bullpen was so bad this year, they then had to go out and get a whole bunch of extra relievers. And if it comes together in October, you know, they've got, they've got a lot of names in that bullpen. They've got a lot of firepower in that bullpen and they've got some fips that were better than eras, if you know what I mean. So it could go well for them. And the vibes, I mean, I almost feel like the summer Yankee vibes, those are like, those feel like pre pandemic. Like the vibes in the Yankees are good right now.
- [33:36]
B
If you love to travel, Capital One has a rewards credit card that's perfect for you.
- [33:41]
C
With the Capital One Venture X card.
- [33:43]
B
You earn unlimited double miles on everything.
- [33:45]
A
You buy, plus you get premium benefits.
- [33:47]
B
At a collection of luxury hotels when you book on Capital One Travel, and with Venture X you get access to.
- [33:53]
C
Over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
- [33:56]
B
Open up a world of travel possibilities with a Capital One Venture X card.
- [34:01]
C
What's in your wallet?
- [34:02]
A
Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See capital1.com for details.
- [34:06]
B
The market's uncertain, revenues tight and hiring on hold.
- [34:10]
A
That's why results driven companies are using upwork to keep work moving.
- [34:14]
B
Go to upwork.com today and start hiring proven freelance talent. Fast. No bulky overhead, no rigid long term contracts. Just the right expert right when you need them. Work smarter and faster with Upwork. Go to Upwork.com now and find your freelance expert. That's Upwork.com post a job for free.
- [34:34]
A
And get started today. Imagine a world of extraordinary comfort where.
- [34:39]
B
Bolin Branch bedding wraps you in the softest.
- [34:42]
A
Embrace the coziest experience made from the world's finest 100% organic cotton, all so you can sleep better. Start building your fall sanctuary with Bolen Branches iconic signature sheets made with a.
- [34:55]
B
Buttery, breathable weave that gets softer with every wash.
- [34:58]
A
Enjoy 15% off your first set of sheets with free shipping and returns at.
- [35:03]
B
B O L L and Branch.com with code buttery.
- [35:07]
A
See site for details and exclusions.
- [35:12]
B
I wrote about that when I did my postseason tears article is that when the Yankees were bad and fumbling and stuff like look at what else was happen. The Guardians were in fourth place with like the fourth worst record in the the American League. The brewers weren't also ran outside of the wild card picture even right. Like all these things are happening when the Yankees are bad. We've forgotten about those stuff. We're not forgotten about them but like we've accepted the new reality. Like oh I guess the Guardians aren't that bad. I guess the brewers are one of the best teams in just a complete, you know, well rounded team and I feel like it's easier to do that from good to bad than bad to good again. You know what I mean? Like it's easier to just accept Yankees don't got it this year, you know and then re reforge your your opinion after that.
- [35:53]
A
I wanted Ken Rosenthal to use this line if the Yankees won the division, but they didn't. So I just say it here. I wanted to say the Yankees don't know when to quit, mostly because they never remember how many outs there are in an inning. I think that's pretty good. No nothing from Sam, just complete stone face anyway. Yes, they they are a team who really does not have obvious flaws other than their bullpen eras. You know, like they're flipping a weighted coin against another good team in the Red Sox. And that's the. That's the peril of the wild card.
- [36:24]
C
Yeah, it is. And especially, I mean, you know, Garrett Crochet is, like, as good as it gets. And, you know, every time you go into a postseason series when there's a pitcher who's as good as Garrett Crochet, you, like, start by going, well, they're going to win that game. And it doesn't work that way. Like, we. We've learned that. That no matter how good a pitcher is, sometimes he loses postseason games. But it definitely feels going in, like, that's an uphill climb in game one, and then you got to win one of the next two. So Baseball Prospectus, I think has them at, like, 75% to win, which is the Yankees to win the series, which is almost. Dodgers, Reds.
- [37:02]
A
It's not that I don't trust their math, but, like, that cannot be right.
- [37:06]
C
Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. Like, I don't. Like, I literally don't know. I don't know.
- [37:11]
A
Yeah, he's playing the Savannah Bananas would be, like, 85%.
- [37:15]
C
I think that if I had to guess, the Yankees, they don't know how.
- [37:19]
B
To do any trick plays.
- [37:20]
C
Dude, the Yankees offense is. Has been a pretty sure thing. And I think that. I think both project. I think that the Fangrass projections also love the Yankees. Like, I think they maybe have them as the second best team in baseball or something like that. And, you know, home field all three games and who's starting games two and three for the Red Sox? Bucks, Giolito and.
- [37:43]
A
And Bayo, maybe.
- [37:44]
C
Yeah.
- [37:45]
A
So they're not great, but they're not. But that's not like. I suppose that's not like a punt scenario, right?
- [37:50]
C
It shouldn't. You wouldn't think it would be Dodgers, Reds, esque.
- [37:54]
A
Like, I wouldn't put the Dodgers Reds at 75%. I just. I just can't. You just can't do that. I don't know. Whatever.
- [38:02]
B
In the most extreme cases, what's. What's a Dodgers Reds game? Right. Everything's on the line. What were the actual percentages? They play a hundred games. What is it. It. 55%.
- [38:11]
A
The Dodgers win 60. 65.
- [38:14]
C
No way. No, Dodgers Reds. Like, I. I think. I don't know what the implied betting odds are, but I would say that if the Dodgers have a Good starting pitcher going. They're probably 65 high 60s against the Reds in a home game on average.
- [38:32]
B
Okay, okay.
- [38:33]
C
That surprising in a home game is key there too.
- [38:37]
B
Okay, okay, okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. I guess, I guess once you start factoring in home field advantage, it makes sense. But then do those odds go straight to heck if the Reds take game one? I would assume they do.
- [38:47]
C
Yeah, well, the Reds are a very different. I mean, we can segue into them. They are the other team that Baseball Prospectus has as the other. By the way, the other two series are 50, 50 like decimal points. Like they both round up to 50, 50. But the Reds Dodgers is the other lopsided one and it's a very different situation. The Reds are going to throw three pitchers who you're excited to see pitch. And those could be the leveling factors in that game. I mean, the Reds are a team that in with a slightly more optimistic tilt. We would have said dangerous in October because they've got a good starting rotation. They just aren't quite good enough to feel dangerous in October.
- [39:29]
A
The concept of scoring points will be a very big challenge for them, especially with the Dodgers rotation. I don't know if it's how you know Cleveland, right, is like kind of set the standard for what is the modern brutal offense this year. But like they have Jose Ramirez. The Reds do not have a player close to that.
- [39:51]
C
No, I did not realize. I also did not realize how cold Ellie De La Cruz has been for the last, last half the season.
- [39:59]
A
You mean the last three seasons. Sorry.
- [40:02]
C
He had, he had one homer in a three month stretch. I had no idea that was happening.
- [40:09]
A
It strikes me as a player that a team like the Dodgers who tends to game plan pretty well is going to neutralize, I would say. But again, like the Reds have good pitching and the Dodgers bullpen is a wreck. So like you could win a 3:1 game, you know, like you really could.
- [40:28]
B
One of the reasons why I love the quality of postseason baseball is that all these teams get to match, like take their time to study. You know, the Reds obviously didn't have that much time to really go into depth on the Dodgers, but at the same time they're gonna spend today really learning about the Dodgers in a way that they hadn't before. So I, I do wonder like they've got, they don't just have good pitching, they have pitching that, that, that thrives on deception rather than overpowering. And I'm just very curious to see how they, how they match up against.
- [41:00]
C
The Ohtani Yeah, the Dodgers rotation also, as great as it is, as much as I love them, as much as I'll probably pick them to win the NL in the World Series, everybody in that rotation loses the strike zone, and that includes Yamamoto, who had, you know, six walk game, five Watt game, five Watt game four watt game. Those are, like, one way outside the norm for him. Like, if you look at his strike rate overall, it's normal, but then there have been, like, five or six games this year where he was just down in, like, the 50s. And Snell, of course, we know Blake Snell goes through. Through sequences like that, games like that. So there's always the possibility that the Reds just show up and find that the wrong Dodger team walked off the bus.
- [41:46]
A
It's not inconceivable. But I do think that that poses more of a problem if you're facing a team that can really control the strike zone. Obviously, that's a time when you can exploit that. I suspect that the Dodgers will be very aggressive in trying to challenge these gentlemen from Cincinnati.
- [42:02]
B
Do you still think that the best of three is just kind of unfair and a joke for any team after 162? Or that is just. You don't want to do the best of three, then you win more games in the regular season. Are we still, like, screw you, you had your chance.
- [42:15]
A
I've been consistent that I don't like the expanded postseason, but fair is in the eye of the beholder, right? Like, sure, if you wanted a better system to determine who was the best team, you'd have it like it was 100 years ago, and, you know, we'd be gearing up for the Blue Jays to play the Brewers.
- [42:32]
C
Yeah, I don't need it to be fair at all. It's a tournament. It's a tournament. You can make it chaotic. I know. I know the score. I know what's happening. I think that giving the home. Giving the better team all three home games is. Is a nice compromise there for the short Series. If you ran up again, if you ran into a team that had, like, that was not a good team, but had, like, two elite starting pitchers, then maybe you would feel like three game series is like, it. It's just way too tilted in their favor, you know? But I don't know. I don't. I don't care. I don't care. It's all fun.
- [43:10]
A
Hold on, hold on, Sam. What is Andrew Abbott to you?
- [43:15]
C
I think Andrew Abbott I do not consider an ace. I also don't consider Nick Lodolo. An ace. But I do consider Hunter Green an ace.
- [43:24]
A
Interesting.
- [43:25]
B
And.
- [43:26]
C
But Hunter Green, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo as a 1, 2, 3. Those are three rough assignments. If I didn't think that The Dodgers had 10 times the offense and the only rotation in the National League that's kind of comparable to the Reds, then I would, I would say, yeah, the Reds are in a really good position. I just don't think that the rest of the rosters are at all close.
- [43:48]
A
Yeah, I think just the, the left handedness of Abbott and Lodolo is particularly troublesome for the Dodgers. Just getting, getting the platoon advantage on Ohtani, Freeman and Muncie. But we'll see.
- [44:00]
B
All right, let's move on to the Padres cubs night. It's 1984 again. Yeah. What, what's the, what's the first movie you're seeing? First album. You're listening. No, I mean, it's just, these are good, fun teams. Fun, interesting teams. They both have stories. The Cubs used to be the one you felt sorry for. Now, not so much. The Padres, man, they have had a history. Like, I can't root for teams, but I just want to see at some point, you know the, the Simpsons where they draw on the back of Homer's head, insert brain here. And he says, what does it say? What does it say? And he's spinning around, he's looking for it and that like, one by one, all of them stop laughing. And like, at one point, like, the Padres had no, no hitter. They had no cycle. They, you know, they've won just one World Series game. And at some point it's like, okay, like, that was funny. Now just come on, give, give Preller the, the prize. So I'm looking forward to that. But at the same time, it would be funny if he has to do it again because what would he do? I love it. Like, I love the Padres losing, too, because it's, that's an interesting story on its own just because of the transactions that go with it.
- [45:05]
A
It would be cool if it was like a one, one, one setup because the playoff environment in both, you know, Wrigley and Petko would be a blast. But, hey, look, you know, that's. The Padres want to play a home game, they got to win two out of the next three. Yeah, that's the one I'm most looking forward to. Like, I don't really. I think San Diego will win, but who the heck knows, you know, that?
- [45:27]
C
I don't know.
- [45:27]
A
I just, I'm just looking forward to watching those games. Those Are gonna be fun.
- [45:30]
B
Before we leave, let's get a World Series prediction on the record, because I know, Andy Offline, you were telling me you're picking the Guardians to go all the way, and so you have to say that now before you know the actual series. So, Andy, who you got?
- [45:43]
A
I think the Guardians will defeat the 2011 Mets in the World Series. My two favorite teams. No, I'm going. I. I could look like an absolute by Friday, but I think Dodgers over Yankees is my World Series pick.
- [45:58]
B
That's boring.
- [45:59]
A
I mean, I picked it. I picked the Astros to win last year, and they were out 36 hours into the tournament, so who knows?
- [46:05]
B
I might have picked it. An Astros, Mets, World Series. I have to go back and look. I know I picked Astros out of the ale. Sam, what you got?
- [46:13]
C
We don't have any idea what we're talking about here, and, like, 80 of our pick is just who we want to say whether than. Rather than any actual, like, ingrained belief, But I will say that.
- [46:23]
B
How dare you.
- [46:23]
C
I got the Mariners in the al. I would say the only good team this year, to me, was the Mariners. They never let me down. You know, they had. They had cold streaks like anybody else, but I don't feel like they missed a step the whole year, and I'm just going to keep riding that. So Mariners in the al. If all the teams started in the same spot here, I would pick the Dodgers. I do think the Dodgers are still the best team in the National League. I also think that them having to play that series against the Reds, there's a. There is a reasonable chance that they just get, you know, eliminated in two games. And so I'm gonna just take the slightly safer path and flip a coin between the Phillies and the brewers, and I'll say that the Phillies and the Mariners, with the Mariners winning, that is.
- [47:12]
B
I wish your corner had gone the other way, because that would have. That would have been good for office, because I'm Phillies, Red Sox. Hart says Mariners, Padres. That is, I think, an excellent World Series in terms of talent, in terms of interest, in terms of my west coast bias. Like, that is a very good series. The Phillies and Red Sox, to me, have been such steady Eddies for the most part all year. They haven't gone through these. You know, what are they? Who are they? What. What is their identity? Ah, they just said the Phillies. They roll. They lost Zach Wheeler. They're still rolling. I do think that they are the best team in baseball. Close to it. It depends on how much I am Adding like, how much value I'm giving Roki Sasaki out of the bullpen and stuff like that. I think if the Phillies have it by a hair, I'll do Phillies, Red Sox. I think that that sounds. It sounds right. And the winner, of course, gets invited back on the the roundtable next year. Losers punted.
- [48:06]
A
Oh, Grant, I'm pretty sure you have picked Mariners, Padres as your World Series every season of the Roundtable. And so I respect you.
- [48:14]
B
I think so.
- [48:14]
A
And I want you to experience that.
- [48:16]
B
I really have because it's just, it's. I talk about the Vetter Cup. It's important to me. So. But it's gonna be Phillies, Red Sox. I think Dodgers, Yankees is fine. Phillies, Mariners are fine.
- [48:26]
C
Do we owe it to the, to the Canadian listeners to just say the words blue and Js?
- [48:32]
B
Not until.
- [48:33]
A
Yeah, that's what they earned a buy. And so they're getting to buy from this pod.
- [48:36]
C
Sure. But we mentioned the Philly. We, you know, the Phillies and the Mariners and the brewers all got mentioned. The Blue Jays also are a team in the playoffs, got the bye, best record in the American League. And as far as steady Eddies go, they didn't really have a swoon after they put things together. They didn't have a swoon. I don't know why they don't feel like a World Series contender to me in the same way that the Brewers, Phillies, Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers all do.
- [49:03]
A
Probably the composition of their roster.
- [49:05]
C
I do feel like they're like the number six team to me and that there's a gap between five and six. And I, I want to acknowledge that. But to Blue Jays fans out there, you earned it. You can hate me for not saying that they're a World Series contender. I mean the, the number three starter, man, whatever number three starter they throw out there is just going to be comical.
- [49:29]
A
They've overplayed their Pythagore by like eight games. Like, I think like it's. The rotation is far more worrisome, I think, for than any of the other elite teams.
- [49:39]
B
I lumped them in with the brewers as I a really good regular season team that I'm skeptical of in the postseason. But that doesn't mean they can't win it. They can all win it.
- [49:49]
C
Can all win.
- [49:49]
B
Except for the Tigers and Guardians. I'm just gonna say right now, no way. What are you gonna do? Make a recording of this podcast and then play it when I'm wrong? I dare you. I dare you, you dorks. The Tigers and Guardians are not gonna win.
- [50:01]
C
The Guardians on base percentage. The Guardians 296 on base percentage, which Andy pointed out to us, I think Andy pointed out to us is the lowest. That was Grant Stat head. Grant pointed out as the lowest by a playoff team ever. It's not just that. It's the 17th, 16th lowest of the millennium. 16th lowest by any team of the millennium. And of the other. The other teams, the median winning percent, the median losses was 100. So the median team with the.296 on base percentage lost 100 games. The Guardians won 11 more games than any team with a non base percentage. That bad. And watching pundits put those two facts together as inspirational is making my head explode.
- [50:50]
A
Yeah.
- [50:50]
B
Yeah. Guards ball, baby. It's. It. It's not a. It's not a bug. It's a feature. Yeah.
- [50:56]
A
Yeah.
- [50:56]
B
It's got to win ugly.
- [50:57]
A
The new market inefficiency is tautological success.
- [51:01]
B
As someone who has spent, you know, more than four decades with a personal philosophy of win ugly. I. I appreciate it. You know, my whole life is Guards ball just dropping. We'll be back on Friday. Talk about the postseason. Is that okay with you guys?
- [51:16]
A
It'll be in DS preview, right?
- [51:18]
B
DS Preview.
- [51:19]
C
I might prefer to do free agent preview.
- [51:24]
A
Giants managerial search.
- [51:26]
B
We didn't even mention Pete Alonso opting out. Damn it. All right, we'll be back on Friday. 180. Thanks for listening. Can see that.
- [51:40]
A
I was very wrong.
- [51:49]
B
How can you grow your business from idea to industry leader? Bring your vision to life with smart business buying tools and technology from Amazon Business. From fast free shipping to in depth buying insights and automated purchase approvals, we deliver everything you need to achieve your goals. It's not easy to stand out from the crowd. Simplify how you stock up to get ahead. Go to amazonbusiness.com for support.
- [52:14]
A
Ready to order?
- [52:15]
C
Yes.
- [52:16]
B
We're earning unlimited 3% cash back on.
- [52:18]
C
Dining and entertainment with a Capital One Saver card.
- [52:20]
B
So let's just get one of everything.
- [52:22]
C
Everything. Fire everything.
- [52:24]
A
The Capital One Saver card is at table 27, and they're earning unlimited 3% cash back.
- [52:29]
B
Yes, chef. This is so nice.
- [52:32]
A
Had a feeling you'd want 3% cash back on dessert.
- [52:34]
B
Ooh, tiramisu.
- [52:36]
A
Earn unlimited 3% cash back on dining and entertainment with the Capital One saver card. Capital One what's in your wallet?
- [52:42]
C
Terms apply.
- [52:43]
B
See capitalone.com for details. Group health plans are limited to a single carrier and a few plan options, but that doesn't fit everyone's needs. Now a new form of employer coverage called an ichra. ICRA allows employees to choose any plan from any carrier. Learn more@ambetterhealth.com ICRA.