The Windup – The Roundtable | Mariners steal Game 1 & Who's the Underdog in the Brewers-Dodgers Series

Episode 184 | October 13, 2025
Hosts: Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, Sam Miller
Podcast by The Athletic

Brief Overview

This episode dives deep into two of the key storylines in the MLB postseason: the Seattle Mariners’ improbable Game 1 ALCS win and a dissection of what makes a true “ace” pitcher in today’s game. The hosts also dig into the Brewers-Dodgers NLCS matchup, debating who’s really the underdog and breaking down why both teams present compelling paths to the World Series. The conversation, true to The Athletic’s insightful and sometimes irreverent tone, offers a blend of analysis, statistical context, and behind-the-scenes observations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Death of the “Ace”?

Timestamps: 02:09–14:23

• Sam Miller provocatively proposes that the era of the “ace pitcher” is fading, points to Tarek Skubal’s six-inning, 99-pitch postseason performance as an example.

• Miller argues that if even clear top-tier talents aren't going deep into elimination games—by team design or pitcher limitation—maybe there’s no such thing as an ace anymore.

  “I think it’s possible that there are no aces, that we have to retire the ace concept…” (02:29, Sam Miller)

• Discussion of Skubal’s usage and AJ Hinch’s approach: dominate for as long as you can go, but don’t push past the tank’s limit.

• Andy and Grant push back, noting that round numbers and pitching philosophy have changed; ace-hood might be more about regular season durability and performance than October heroics.

  “Being an ace is way more about the regular season than the postseason. …They put together the results.” (11:49, Andy McCullough)

• Sam reveals that 2025’s “ace cohort” postseason performance averages 3.11 ERA and 5.8 innings/start over 12 starts, which feels disappointingly short and echoes the shift in how starters are used.

2. The Pitching Environment Has Changed

Timestamps: 14:23–18:39

• Andy and Grant marvel at the velocity and depth now present even in back-end/low-leverage relievers, citing Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby as examples.

  “Aaron Ashby… he’s just blowing cheddar from the left side…. This is like the fourth-best guy in the Brewers bullpen.” (17:38, Grant Brisby)

• Sam notes that today’s “terrible” reliever would’ve been better than Javier Vazquez 20 years ago—contextualizing how difficult it is for even stars to be dominant deep into playoff games nowadays.

3. Mariners’ Steal Game 1: Luck or Skill?

Timestamps: 18:39–27:10

• Mariners entered Game 1 “the most disadvantaged team” imaginable according to Sam, forced to start Bryce Miller on short rest with a taxed bullpen.

• Sam’s poker analogy: sometimes the apparent underdog flips the game script—a huge psychological and tactical win now that Seattle shifts the series odds.

• Jorge Polanco’s emergence—from cheap February signing to October hero—is a recurring talking point; Andy notes he was the archetype of an undervalued, high-upside move.

• The team explores Blue Jays’ early aggression and how their contact-heavy approach led to quick, low-pitch innings—a double-edged sword.

  “The Mariners threw 100 pitches on the night… for the entire staff, that’s remarkable.” (25:15, Grant Brisby)

• Andy and Sam break down the challenge: Toronto made “decent swing decisions, bad results”—not a team that strikes out, but sometimes putting the ball in play works against you.

4. Mariners Bullpen Philosophy & Rotational Gambles

Timestamps: 26:26–27:07

• Mariners still stretching thin with Logan Gilbert not on full rest for Game 2 and Brian Wu set up for a vital outing (despite injury reservation).
• Grant and Sam discuss the calculated risk: are you playing with a ticking clock if you lean on a not-quite-healthy Wu?

5. Brewers vs Dodgers – Who Is Actually the Underdog?

Timestamps: 27:10–34:23

• Despite the Brewers’ top record, run differential, and sweep of the Dodgers in the season series, the “nobody believes in us” narrative persists.

  “The Brewers would have you believe that they’re massive underdogs. No one believes in them.” (27:30, Sam Miller)

• Andy illustrates the identity crisis: Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy’s average-joes, woodpeckers, and cliffhangers metaphors—underdog status, self-imposed and self-marketed.

• The Dodgers’ star-laden, high-profile roster is contrasted with the Brewers’ relative anonymity and “contact-happy,” fundamentally-sound approach.

• The panel agrees Dodgers are favorites on top-end talent, but Brewers have a path—especially if the series comes down to late-inning defense and executing in chaos:

  “If you imagine this series coming down to one play… the Brewers are the team that is more likely to make a play.” (34:23, Sam Miller)

6. Series X-Factors: Rotation Depth, Reliever Familiarity, and Health

Timestamps: 35:12–41:28

• Brewers’ Achilles heel: lack of rotation depth behind Peralta, risk of overexposing relievers in a longer series—the “exposure tax.” (35:15–36:24)
• Dodgers: deep, healthy rotation (Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasnow), actually might be their best-ever postseason setup—pushing Ohtani back in the order to help his bat, not because of health.
• Brewers’ injuries (limited Yelich & Chourio) versus Dodgers’ robust health create a potentially decisive edge.

7. World Series Predictions and Preferences

Timestamps: 43:09–45:52

• Andy: “I look, I’m rooting for me. That’s what I’m rooting for.” (43:12) Prefers Dodgers-Mariners for logistics, predicts Dodgers-Blue Jays.
• Sam: Thinks “Dodgers-Mariners” would be most interesting nationally, but all permutations are intriguing.
• Grant: Heart wants “Brewers-Mariners” for the “first timers” narrative, predicts “Blue Jays-Brewers” for alliterative fun.
• Postseason X-factor: Watching for “throw day” appearances, especially for the Brewers (who are so thin, any day might be a “throw day” for someone).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “ace” debate:

  “If Derek Skubal is not an ace, no one’s an ace.” (03:14, Sam Miller)

• On pitching in 2025:

  “We have crossed a threshold of what pitchers are able to do so quickly… now the 24th guy on the roster [is] doing what was once unthinkable.” (15:22, Andy McCullough)

• On the Mariners’ luck:

  “There’s never been a team, I don’t think, that was more disadvantaged going into a game…” (19:47, Sam Miller)

• On Brewers’ self-perception:

  “They’ve called you guys Average Joe’s all year. Well, you’re the not so Average Joe’s now.” (29:11, Andy McCullough relaying Pat Murphy)

• On World Series hopes:

  “In my heart of hearts, I want it to be Brewers–Mariners, because I love the idea of first timers, who’s going to get their first championship…” (44:12, Grant Brisby)

Important Timestamps for Segments

• 02:09 – The “Ace” argument and Skubal’s outing
• 11:49 – Regular season vs postseason “ace” value
• 17:38 – Unheralded relievers and the velocity revolution
• 18:39 – Mariners’ unlikely Game 1 win
• 23:28 – Blue Jays’ quick innings: approach or flaw?
• 27:30 – Brewers vs. Dodgers: Who’s really the underdog?
• 34:23 – Series X-factor: “Who makes the play?”
• 35:12 – Bullpen fatigue and reliever exposure tax
• 38:44 – Dodgers’ rotation: best ever?
• 43:09 – World Series picks and preferences

Conclusion

This episode encapsulates the evolutions, quirks, and narratives animating postseason baseball in 2025: the shift away from heroic aces, the exponential rise in pitching talent, the challenges faced by underdog teams, and the endlessly fertile ground for debate brought by October ball. With humor and insight, Brisbee, McCullough, and Miller cut through the clichés to offer sharp analysis and unexpected perspective—a must-listen for fans who want to understand the narratives beneath the headlines.