The Roundtable | Mariners steal Game 1 & who's the underdog in the Brewers-Dodgers series

Summary

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The Windup – The Roundtable | Mariners steal Game 1 & Who's the Underdog in the Brewers-Dodgers Series

Episode 184 | October 13, 2025
Hosts: Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, Sam Miller
Podcast by The Athletic

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Brief Overview

This episode dives deep into two of the key storylines in the MLB postseason: the Seattle Mariners’ improbable Game 1 ALCS win and a dissection of what makes a true “ace” pitcher in today’s game. The hosts also dig into the Brewers-Dodgers NLCS matchup, debating who’s really the underdog and breaking down why both teams present compelling paths to the World Series. The conversation, true to The Athletic’s insightful and sometimes irreverent tone, offers a blend of analysis, statistical context, and behind-the-scenes observations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Death of the “Ace”?

Timestamps: 02:09–14:23

• Sam Miller provocatively proposes that the era of the “ace pitcher” is fading, points to Tarek Skubal’s six-inning, 99-pitch postseason performance as an example.

• Miller argues that if even clear top-tier talents aren't going deep into elimination games—by team design or pitcher limitation—maybe there’s no such thing as an ace anymore.

  “I think it’s possible that there are no aces, that we have to retire the ace concept…” (02:29, Sam Miller)

• Discussion of Skubal’s usage and AJ Hinch’s approach: dominate for as long as you can go, but don’t push past the tank’s limit.

• Andy and Grant push back, noting that round numbers and pitching philosophy have changed; ace-hood might be more about regular season durability and performance than October heroics.

  “Being an ace is way more about the regular season than the postseason. …They put together the results.” (11:49, Andy McCullough)

• Sam reveals that 2025’s “ace cohort” postseason performance averages 3.11 ERA and 5.8 innings/start over 12 starts, which feels disappointingly short and echoes the shift in how starters are used.

2. The Pitching Environment Has Changed

Timestamps: 14:23–18:39

• Andy and Grant marvel at the velocity and depth now present even in back-end/low-leverage relievers, citing Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby as examples.

  “Aaron Ashby… he’s just blowing cheddar from the left side…. This is like the fourth-best guy in the Brewers bullpen.” (17:38, Grant Brisby)

• Sam notes that today’s “terrible” reliever would’ve been better than Javier Vazquez 20 years ago—contextualizing how difficult it is for even stars to be dominant deep into playoff games nowadays.

3. Mariners’ Steal Game 1: Luck or Skill?

Timestamps: 18:39–27:10

• Mariners entered Game 1 “the most disadvantaged team” imaginable according to Sam, forced to start Bryce Miller on short rest with a taxed bullpen.

• Sam’s poker analogy: sometimes the apparent underdog flips the game script—a huge psychological and tactical win now that Seattle shifts the series odds.

• Jorge Polanco’s emergence—from cheap February signing to October hero—is a recurring talking point; Andy notes he was the archetype of an undervalued, high-upside move.

• The team explores Blue Jays’ early aggression and how their contact-heavy approach led to quick, low-pitch innings—a double-edged sword.

  “The Mariners threw 100 pitches on the night… for the entire staff, that’s remarkable.” (25:15, Grant Brisby)

• Andy and Sam break down the challenge: Toronto made “decent swing decisions, bad results”—not a team that strikes out, but sometimes putting the ball in play works against you.

4. Mariners Bullpen Philosophy & Rotational Gambles

Timestamps: 26:26–27:07

• Mariners still stretching thin with Logan Gilbert not on full rest for Game 2 and Brian Wu set up for a vital outing (despite injury reservation).
• Grant and Sam discuss the calculated risk: are you playing with a ticking clock if you lean on a not-quite-healthy Wu?

5. Brewers vs Dodgers – Who Is Actually the Underdog?

Timestamps: 27:10–34:23

• Despite the Brewers’ top record, run differential, and sweep of the Dodgers in the season series, the “nobody believes in us” narrative persists.

  “The Brewers would have you believe that they’re massive underdogs. No one believes in them.” (27:30, Sam Miller)

• Andy illustrates the identity crisis: Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy’s average-joes, woodpeckers, and cliffhangers metaphors—underdog status, self-imposed and self-marketed.

• The Dodgers’ star-laden, high-profile roster is contrasted with the Brewers’ relative anonymity and “contact-happy,” fundamentally-sound approach.

• The panel agrees Dodgers are favorites on top-end talent, but Brewers have a path—especially if the series comes down to late-inning defense and executing in chaos:

  “If you imagine this series coming down to one play… the Brewers are the team that is more likely to make a play.” (34:23, Sam Miller)

6. Series X-Factors: Rotation Depth, Reliever Familiarity, and Health

Timestamps: 35:12–41:28

• Brewers’ Achilles heel: lack of rotation depth behind Peralta, risk of overexposing relievers in a longer series—the “exposure tax.” (35:15–36:24)
• Dodgers: deep, healthy rotation (Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasnow), actually might be their best-ever postseason setup—pushing Ohtani back in the order to help his bat, not because of health.
• Brewers’ injuries (limited Yelich & Chourio) versus Dodgers’ robust health create a potentially decisive edge.

7. World Series Predictions and Preferences

Timestamps: 43:09–45:52

• Andy: “I look, I’m rooting for me. That’s what I’m rooting for.” (43:12) Prefers Dodgers-Mariners for logistics, predicts Dodgers-Blue Jays.
• Sam: Thinks “Dodgers-Mariners” would be most interesting nationally, but all permutations are intriguing.
• Grant: Heart wants “Brewers-Mariners” for the “first timers” narrative, predicts “Blue Jays-Brewers” for alliterative fun.
• Postseason X-factor: Watching for “throw day” appearances, especially for the Brewers (who are so thin, any day might be a “throw day” for someone).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “ace” debate:

  “If Derek Skubal is not an ace, no one’s an ace.” (03:14, Sam Miller)

• On pitching in 2025:

  “We have crossed a threshold of what pitchers are able to do so quickly… now the 24th guy on the roster [is] doing what was once unthinkable.” (15:22, Andy McCullough)

• On the Mariners’ luck:

  “There’s never been a team, I don’t think, that was more disadvantaged going into a game…” (19:47, Sam Miller)

• On Brewers’ self-perception:

  “They’ve called you guys Average Joe’s all year. Well, you’re the not so Average Joe’s now.” (29:11, Andy McCullough relaying Pat Murphy)

• On World Series hopes:

  “In my heart of hearts, I want it to be Brewers–Mariners, because I love the idea of first timers, who’s going to get their first championship…” (44:12, Grant Brisby)

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Important Timestamps for Segments

• 02:09 – The “Ace” argument and Skubal’s outing
• 11:49 – Regular season vs postseason “ace” value
• 17:38 – Unheralded relievers and the velocity revolution
• 18:39 – Mariners’ unlikely Game 1 win
• 23:28 – Blue Jays’ quick innings: approach or flaw?
• 27:30 – Brewers vs. Dodgers: Who’s really the underdog?
• 34:23 – Series X-factor: “Who makes the play?”
• 35:12 – Bullpen fatigue and reliever exposure tax
• 38:44 – Dodgers’ rotation: best ever?
• 43:09 – World Series picks and preferences

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Conclusion

This episode encapsulates the evolutions, quirks, and narratives animating postseason baseball in 2025: the shift away from heroic aces, the exponential rise in pitching talent, the challenges faced by underdog teams, and the endlessly fertile ground for debate brought by October ball. With humor and insight, Brisbee, McCullough, and Miller cut through the clichés to offer sharp analysis and unexpected perspective—a must-listen for fans who want to understand the narratives beneath the headlines.

Transcript

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[Grant Brisby]

This is the wind up. Welcome to episode number 184, the Roundtable. I'm Grant Brisby here with Andy McCullough and Sam Miller. Andy, how you doing?

[Andy McCullough]

I'm good.

[Grant Brisby]

Sam Miller. How you doing?

[Sam Miller]

Fired up.

[Grant Brisby]

Fired up.

[Sam Miller]

Fired up.

[Grant Brisby]

I mean, this is. It's been a good, good week of postseason ball. We got another week coming up. They're kicking people off. They're kicking people on. It's just. It's an entirely new thing. I don't know. Do I have to ask you a stupid question, Sam? Or we. We just want to talk ball these days, don't we?

[Sam Miller]

I've been a ace maximalist, as you guys know.

[Grant Brisby]

Yes.

[Sam Miller]

And I'm getting a little bored with that position. And I'm thinking of becoming an ace minimalist. Like, like, not just a minimalist, but maybe like an ace denier. I Like the writing so much. I will let Andy continue the annual series, but I think it's possible that there are no aces, that we have to retire the ace concept, that, you know, there. There just are no aces. The ERA does not lend itself to that. And the moment that I realized that was when the most undeniable ace in Major League baseball couldn't throw a hundred pitches in a winner take all game. And I just don't know that you can be an ace if you don't have 100 pitches in you in a winner take all game. It reminds me of, like, when we used to take scantron tests and if you accidentally skipped a line, you'd, like, fail the whole test even though you, like, knew all the answers. I think that maybe not going 100 pitches in a winner take all postseason game might just invalidate your scandron form. And if Derek Skubel is not an ace, no one's an ace. I mean, maybe Paul Skeens will get a chance once, you know, he hits.

[Andy McCullough]

Free agency, gets traded.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, gets traded. But for now, I think we have. I think we have strong evidence that there are no aces in 2025.

[Andy McCullough]

To be clear, did Skubal ask out after 99 pitches, or was he not permitted to go back out?

[Sam Miller]

It was kind of mutual. It sounds like the way AJ Hinch described it is that he. I can actually read you the quote from AJ Hinch. He said, you know, he emptied his tank and obviously was emotional coming off the mound. And I think that signals exactly where we were in the game. He gave us everything he could. He empties. He. His tank from pitch one. He empties his tank from pitch one. So it sort of implies that, like, this was like, Skubal never had it in mind that he was gonna, you know, like, carry the team to the ninth inning. Like he was gonna stick to his routine, which was pitching every batter to the very, very, very maximum ability. And if that meant that he only had six, then that's fine. That's what he's used to. I think they. I don't have the quote, but I think they also said that before the 6th, Hinch, like, looked in his eyes and could tell there was only one more in there. I don't think I'm making that up. I'm pretty sure that also happened. So, I mean, there's a debate here, I think, about whether you want an ace to do exactly what Scubal did. I mean, he dominated. He struck out 13 batters. He allowed one run most of the time. That's going to win you your winner take all game. And so to say that he's doing it wrong might be completely off base. There's a theory there. Right. But also, you know, it's like there's no one in that staff that you trust besides him the way that you trust him. You know that the last nine outs are going to be rocky. A seventh inning, an eighth inning would have been really good. So there's. I don't know that, hey, empty your tank from pitch one is not necessarily what I would want. Yeah. For him.

[Andy McCullough]

So do you think you are falling victim to the power of round numbers in any way? If he had thrown 105 pitches through six innings, would you have been like, well, all right, he, you know, he's over 105.

[Sam Miller]

I do have receipts. I mean, I was having conversations from the beginning. And like, I told someone early in the game that I would be more surprised if he threw fewer than 110 than if he threw more than 120. And so that's not the. That's not round number talk.

[Andy McCullough]

Sure.

[Sam Miller]

As much. I. I thought that he would go season high plus, like, what's your max like?

[Andy McCullough]

I mean, we talked about this. We were texting about this during the game and we were all like, at least. We were kind of joking, but we were at least like above 120. I think we all thought that he was going to get to it.

[Grant Brisby]

I don't think I was joking. I said 142. And that was, that was tongue, you know, a little bit in cheek. So, yeah, I was surprised too.

[Sam Miller]

I don't know, maybe this is. And I'm not like mad at him or hinge this. They had a theory. They executed it. It was immediately, I would say immediately proven wrong. They don't have seventh inning options that are as good as him. And Dan Wilson was able to maneuver the situation so that the Tigers got like their 8th best pitcher into the game, which is a dream in a winner take all game. Right. Like, you don't think you're gonna see Tyler Holton.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

Or a pitcher like Tyler Holton in that game. And the fact that school only went six kind of enabled that. On the other hand, like, you know, it was a, it was a momentous performance through six. I don't know what the expectation. So what is, what would you guys say should be our expectation for a. Like, if an ace has a hundred postseason starts, like a true ace, what are you looking for? On average, what's the aggregate performance?

[Grant Brisby]

I don't even know if I'm looking for an era. A hundred. I mean, 100 starts. I would just expect close to his career averages.

[Sam Miller]

Huh.

[Grant Brisby]

You know, I mean, I don't think it's more complicated than that.

[Sam Miller]

How many innings do you want him going? 7, 8? Or in a postseason game, does. Does the, you know, third time through the order apply even to him? Are you, you know, maybe looking to get him out if he's starting to, you know, allow a base runner in a leverage situation? What? There have been 12 starts this postseason by pitchers in my ace cohort, my maximalist ACE cohort. 12 starts. So I do know their average aggregate performance, and I want to know if it is in range of what you accept from Mace or if it's disappointing for what you would think from.

[Grant Brisby]

In the postseason.

[Sam Miller]

In the postseason. 12 starts this postseason from my ace cohort.

[Grant Brisby]

That's a smaller thing. I'll go. I'll go three and a half year, right? Three. 3.5. What about you, Andy?

[Andy McCullough]

I would say a three.

[Sam Miller]

So it's a 3.11. And it's 5.8 innings. So short of six.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

And that feels just on the disappointing side to me. More length than era.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

I think there's a postseason start and then there's a game five start or an elimination game start, you know, win or go home. I think that was the context. Look, if you're doing that in game one with Scubal, I'm not going to bark too much. I'm going to say, okay, you know, there's bullets, you're saving them, whatever. Every game is kind of like a must win, but it's also not, well, this is a must, must, must win. This is it. And the idea that before the game, it's like, hey, empties his pitch, his tank from pitch one. That their plan was, once we get to Kyle Finnegan in the seventh, baby, just get Scuba. Like, this isn't the bullpen. This isn't the. The 2015 royals. You know what I mean?

[Andy McCullough]

It's.

[Grant Brisby]

Kyle Finnegan had. What did he have? He had. Has 13 appearances with them that were pretty darn good. And then he's had several years before that where he was just a guy. Even if he had saves, he was just a guy. Like he was. He's not someone who was putting fears in the opponents of the Nationals. So I don't know. I just. The elimination game is what sticks in my craw and what makes me be old and yelling at clouds.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah. The issue is just. It's a, it's a, it's an elimination game in the second round with two rounds beyond. When your pitching staff is simply not good enough to, you know, really over rely on Tarek Scubal in a five game because you don't have enough good pitchers to win a seven game series against the team that is, you know, whoever they were playing, you know, the Blue Jays are a better team than the Tigers. You know, whoever they would play in the World Series is a better team. So yeah, I mean I'm looking at the, you know, the, the, the current active aces in baseball is, you know there are three, right? Paul Skin, Teruble, Garrett Crochet. Zach Wheeler has been transferred to the American bad category, you know, in honor of his service as he recovers from his injury. Garrett Crochet, you know, had an ace like performance, I think school, you know, he went seven and two thirds. He went seven and then he went six. I agree with you that it was in the moment we were all just like, why is he coming out? Like you, like you just kind of have to ride him until his arm combusts. But it makes sense. And also like, look, this is a guy who, he's already had Tommy John surgery. He is a season away from probably signing the biggest, you know, free agent contract in the history of Major League Baseball for pitchers. They're not making those decisions, you know, thinking like, oh no, we gotta, you know, protect Tarek and you know, making money. But like they care about the player, they understand the player's present future, all those things. And they're not going to subject him to, you know, like an insane sort of ask in the second round of a four round postseason. You know, like I would have liked to have seen him go more, but to see him come out, I don't, it doesn't change my opinion of him as a pitcher in anything.

[Sam Miller]

Okay.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

And I, I guess where I land for the most part is I didn't look into his eyes before the six inning. You know, I mean it's, it's. Yeah, I spent decades complaining about why didn't you use this reliever? Why didn't you use this reliever? And then you start to learn like, oh, okay, well there's not every, not everything is on the table when you're talking about who to use.

[Sam Miller]

It's.

[Grant Brisby]

Some guys are out, some guys have pit three, whatever. And so I feel like that was scuba like pulling you.

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[Grant Brisby]

It's a monumental decision. It's not like AJ Hinge is like, ah, I guess I'LL just pull him. Yeah, it's very clearly, like, part of the plan.

[Andy McCullough]

I also think being an ace is way more about the regular season than the postseason. Oh, I really do, because I think. I think the thing that separates the aces from the guys with really great stuff is that they show up and do it year after year after year, and they put together the results. And I think that you can see in the postseason. We've already seen, you know, several examples where it's like, dude, when Cam Schlitter faced the Red Sox, it was just his night. You know, his stuff was working. He was confident. He just was mowing them down. And, like, for. For a moment in time, he's the best pitcher in the world. But then you wake up and you have to kind of do it again. And, you know, that's the sort of thing that aces do that all year round. You know, it's not just one night. It's not just when everything clicks. It's when you don't have your good stuff. It's when you're, you know, going on for your pitching for your third time, you know, on the road in the postseason, and, you know, rather than, like, wilting, you strike out 13. You know, when you probably don't have your best stuff. That's being an ace, I feel like is. Is the ability to just be the same guy day after day and then less about, like, rising specifically to a moment, because I think that is, like, kind of a fickle way to evaluate it.

[Sam Miller]

Okay, Tarek Skubel, definitely an ace decision. Decision. Justifiable. I mean, if the tank is empty. The tank is empty. Understandable. But going to just the slightly longer term strategic question. When Bryce Miller goes out there or when Jose Quintana goes out there for a postseason game, you say, hey, look, empty the tank.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, we.

[Sam Miller]

We're pulling you as soon as we need to. If you only have 55 pitches, that's fine. Empty the tank. Do you want your schools, your crochets to be emptying the tank from pitch one, or is his presence enough of an improvement over the bullpen options that you want him to save some to. I mean, he struck out 13. Is it a. Is it. I mean, I feel like. I feel very old school here saying this, but is it better if he strikes out eight and goes seven and two thirds? Are we like, can you make the case? Or does the experience of Tarek Skubal, Part of that is you go, hey, look, you don't have to throw 102 past every hitter. You don't have to strike out Jorge Polanco. But then, you know, when you ease up a little, Jorge Polanco homer's twice off you, and you lose that game. So. Yeah, is it, Is everybody just too dangerous right now? Home runs are too, so just. Really? Yes. Even for your age, Case, you take that start just as it is.

[Andy McCullough]

You need to pitch the way you pitch. Yeah, you need to, you need to be the guy you are. You know, I think, like, watching Jacob Mizarowski in his second outing, it was clear he was, like, trying to be less, you know, jumping out of his skin and, you know, being less of like, a goony bird and was, like, trying to be under control. And so he's, you know, sitting 101 instead of 104. That's, like, a little different. I think with Scuba, you just kind of ask him to, you know, just be the guy he is. I, I gotta tell you, pitching is, is, is so good. I mean, I, I, I'll, I'll call up Colin Ray, right? So Colin Ray is like, is like a fourth or fifth starter on the Cubs, you know, has like a four ERA this year. He strikes out like seven per nine. And so in my mind, right, he's just like, generic, you know, sort of sinker baller, you know, soup on Esque, I think granted described him as in a text, he was like, sitting 95. Like, you're just like this guy. Like, we were in the press box, you know, in Milwaukee and was joking with, like, John Greenberg, you know, and our, our Cubs writers, and Greenberg was like, this was 10 years ago. Like, Tom Verducci would write a story about how, like, Colin Ray is, like, testing the limits of human performance with his ability, you know, to, like, command three different fastballs, all above 94 miles an hour. You know, like, we have just, we have crossed a, a threshold of what pitchers are able to do so quickly. That stuff that, when, when I started, like, really caring about baseball was, you know, the most amazing thing is now, like, the 24th guy on the roster, so. And that guy is, you know, performs like the 24th guy on the roster. And so if you're Terry Skuble, you need to be at the apex of your performance in order to get through even a lineup like Seattle's, which is, like, not the best in the postseason.

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[Grant Brisby]

After Colin Ray the the text thread, I I had the same experience, but like, totally different with, with Aaron Ashby. Like, Aaron Ashby to me before this season was a guy who was on your fantasy team because something went wrong. And then he comes out here and he's just blowing cheddar from the, the left side. Like, if, if you put this guy against, I'm not gonna go that far back. You, you put this guy against, like, Will Clark, he's just gonna carve him up and fold him into a paper airplane and throw him off the Grand Canyon. Like, it's just, what are we doing here? This is like the, the fourth best guy in the brewers bullpen.

[Andy McCullough]

He's like the one guy they don't trust in the brewers bullpen right now. And he's like the nastiest pitcher you've ever seen.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, I had a game this year where I would, I would identify a pitcher who looked terrible and who you like, wouldn't trust at all. And then you'd say, well, 20 years ago, would he have been better than Javier Vasquez? And the answer was almost always, like, just based on the pitch attributes and the velo and everything, you go, yeah, definitely, he would have been better than Javier Vasquez 20 years ago.

[Grant Brisby]

Where is Ismael Valdez right now? Like, what is he a long man? Like, I just, I'm curious because back then he was, he was a wizard when he was going right, and I don't know if he gets out at Double A. Well, let's Talk about the game that happened. Let's talk about game one of the alcs. I don't think I've ever been more surprised by a baseball game as far as like, you know, because we're talking the beginning of the game could not have started off worse. Yeah. For the Mariners, the position they were in, it was, you know, you know, that's the whole narrative going into is their bullpen is just chewed up and spit out. And the rotation, everyone had to pitch in game five. And it started out with home run. It's. Then it was, let's see, it was a walk, a line drive, a smoked line drive by Vlad Jr. And then another walk. Come on. That's it, that's it. He is out. Maybe that inning. He's out. He has one more batter. I think I want to ask you guys, how many quality starts do you think that Bryce Miller had this season? He had, I think 19 starts.

[Sam Miller]

0,01.

[Grant Brisby]

He had one. He had one. And that was like in August.

[Sam Miller]

It's gonna be a fun story to tell. There's never been a team, I don't think that was more disadvantaged going into a game. I mean, they had to use their three best pitchers to get to that game. They had to use their game five. I mean, their, their number five starter who was also on short rest. They had to use Bryce Miller on short rest just to, just to feel the lineup. Just to feel like it's like when you have like a slow pitch softball team and, and you only have seven and it's like minimum eight you got. And you just pull anybody from the, you know, walking by, pushing an ice cream cart, you're like, that's our guy. Bryce Miller on short rest. And you thought that was a gimme. You thought like, that's as much. I mean, I. One time I played poker in like this really, like when I was a young man, I was playing poker in this really junky poker room, casino poker room. And there was this table off to the side where three older women were learning the rules of poker from like, like a staff member. He was like teaching them like a well. And this is a straight five in a row. So I was like, this poker room sucks. I'm gonna leave. And then they, they get up and they come to my table and I'm like, well, I can't leave now. They're sitting down to play with real money at my table. And I got emptied out. And that is how I felt about the Blue Juice. I mean, it's even without that kind of like psychological flip of losing the game that you seem like a gimme the odds now flip to the Mariners anyway, right? Like they took back home field advantage. They aren't going to probably start Miller again. The Blue Jays had to use their ace. The Blue Jays actually had to use their high leverage relievers more than the Mariners did. It's all good things for the Mariners, but I mean the fact that they stole that game alone is just like a massive, it feels like a massive momentum shift. This was a 50, 50 series coming in, I think. But it didn't feel like that because the Mariners were definitely going to lose game one. And it doesn't feel anywhere near a 50, 50 series now. It feels like, well, Pakota has it up at like 70, 30 and that kind of seems about right.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, Jorge Polanco had a, had a series of important hits. Again, Jorge Polanco had an excellent year for the Mariners. I believe he signed in February for $8 million. And Jorge Polanco was the player who probably came up most often this past off season when executives were complaining about their owner, where they would say things like, you think we couldn't use Jorge Polanco? Well, they won't, they won't let us sign him, you know, and so, you know, it is a good reminder that you can find good players for short term deals, you know, at any time of year. And he's been, I mean, what, he hit like seven homers off school in the ds, you know, he's driving in runs. I mean, I. Look, I.

[Sam Miller]

His hits are all like 110 plus. I don't think most people think Jorge Polanco is like an exit velo superstar, but he is like crushing the ball.

[Andy McCullough]

He was one of those guys who like, if you his time with the Twins, he would have like a five win season and then he would be like a negative WAR player and then he would have a four win season, then a one win season and then a negative and then a five win season. You're like, who is this guy? Like, is he good, is he bad? What's the deal here? But clearly they have, they've hit the right side of the coin on him this season. He's been excellent.

[Sam Miller]

Sarah Langs had this fun fact, this fact that the Blue Jays or the Mariners, depending on what perspective you have had six innings of eight pitches or fewer.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

Which is wild. Did you get the feeling, is that a indictment of the Blue Jays? Is there anything wrong with them staying aggressive throughout the game and because it does feel like, well, Bryce Miller's in the game. He is kind of the guy you want to get. Like, you. You're not trying to work Bryce Miller's pitch count up in general. Like, you're not thinking, well, let's get him out so we can get to the bullpen. Usually, you know, he gives up a ton of home runs and hard contact generally. And so it made sense that they would be swinging early. They're also a team that is going to have low pitch counts because they put the ball in play. You know, they're not swinging and missing and having seven pitch at bats. On the one hand, that fact was incredible to me, and on the other hand, it felt maybe justifiable like the Blue Jays didn't seem totally without a plan. They just were missing pitches.

[Andy McCullough]

I didn't get a chance to watch the game because I was working, and then I was. And then I had dinner and the place I was eating at, the tv was facing the wrong direction.

[Sam Miller]

The wall was facing the wall.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, I guess I was facing the wrong direction. The TV was where it was supposed to be. Were they chasing and making contact? Because they're not a team that strikes out. Like, were they just kind of hitting atom balls? Like, what was. What was the quality?

[Sam Miller]

Definitely neither. They were not hitting atom balls. They hit one ball after the first inning when they got Bryce Miller in trouble. They hit one more ball over 101 the rest of the game, and it was a ground out. You wouldn't say they were chasing, though. They were just fly out to right field.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah. So, like, decent swing decisions, bad results.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, just not. Not barreling anything.

[Andy McCullough]

That's a quality of their offense. Yeah, right. I mean, because they. They are contact happy. That's just the thing that happens sometimes.

[Grant Brisby]

I guess it's the frog hair and the scorpion.

[Sam Miller]

You know what I mean?

[Grant Brisby]

It's like, sometimes you're gonna have games like this. This is the downside. Sometimes you get to pet the dog, sometimes you step and it's poop. And it's like that with sinker ballers, too. You know, it's like, hey, you've got the sinker baller. What do you want to do as a pitcher? Get it on the ground, keep work. And then sometimes they find holes. And that's just. You live with that because you know that on average, you're going to be successful more often than not. And that's the thing here, when you don't strike out. The Mariners threw 100 pitches on the night. I mean, it is a hundred pitches for the entire Staff, that's remarkable. And that's why you can't. And I was guilty of this too. When you say the Blue Jays make contact as if it is something, an attribute that they should be proud of. It is. Is it something that necessarily translates to every single game in the way they want it to? Absolute. Absolutely not. That was just the real downside of being a contact oriented team. Just quick, quick, quick innings.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. Only four strikeouts in the game.

[Grant Brisby]

And of course Bryce Miller's throwing freaking 97 above the zone.

[Andy McCullough]

Sure. Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

Anyone could swear that out. Yeah.

[Andy McCullough]

Like, this guy stinks. It's like, no, he had like a 29 era last year. Like his, his this season was very confounding for him.

[Sam Miller]

The Mariners are not entirely out of. I don't know how you would put it, but stretched thin territory. Logan Gilbert is starting game two. It's not full rest, it's not short rest. It's. Who knows? It's like postseason. Who knows Rest. And so there's some gamble there. And then Brian Wu is coming back. I love Brian Wu. Excited about Brian Wu. There's something kind of terrifying about the fact that he wasn't available for game one when the Mariners desperately needed him, but he will be available for game five. It does make you feel like he's gonna be like 1 second past healed.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, that's right.

[Grant Brisby]

That was when. When I saw that he was on the roster, I was like, oh, that's the plan for a couple. You do Woo for a couple. Oh, apparently he's just ride Miller like he's a at ACE from 1984. Sam had a good problem. He said, Dodgers, brewers, which one's the underdog? And I like that. I like that because I don't know. I don't know. So Sam, kick it off.

[Sam Miller]

Well, I mean, objectively speaking, one team won more games over the course of a very long trial. The underlying metrics favor them. If you look at things like run differential. And when they played head to head, it was a six game sweep. And that team also has home field advantage. And yet, you know, the brewers would have you believe that they're massive underdogs. No one believes in them. And most people are nodding. Yaha. Yeah, that's right. Yeah.

[Andy McCullough]

I had this exact exchange with Brandon Woodruff after they beat the Cubs where he was like, we're gonna be the underdogs. And I was like, I get what you're saying, Matt, but like, I just want to be clear. You won the most game in baseball. And he was like, huh? You Beat this team six times during your six matchups. He goes, yep. And I go, you have home field advantage. And he goes, watch out. And I said, and you're the underdogs. He goes, come on, man.

[Sam Miller]

We're the Brewers.

[Andy McCullough]

Like, all right. You know, this is an amusing time of year for this. I mean, the Dodgers, you know, tried to paint themselves as the underdogs in various times last offseason or last postseason. I think with the brewers, it's like, a reasonable case because, like, normal people cannot identify who's on their team. Like, the amount of people who have been covering the Dodgers, who yesterday were like, who is that guy on the Brewers? And I had to give them sort of like, the. You know, the cheat code. It's like, okay, Sal Free looks the one with the hair. Bryce Tarang has ink. Caleb Durbin's like, the shorter third baseman. You know, Contreras is the short catcher. Ortiz is the short shortstop. Like, they're all. No one's tall. Andrew Vaughn was the guy who went to Cal. There is an element of anonymity with them, but there's also, like, you know, Pat Murphy, after they. After they clinch, said something to the effect of, like, they've called you guys Average Joe's all year. Well, you're the not so Average Joe's now. And they start spraying the champagne, and it's like, Pat Murphy's the one who started calling him the Average Joe. To be clear, like, Average Joe's is a reference to the 2004 movie Dodgeball, and Vince Vaughn's team, in Dodgeball, their name is the Average Joe's. That was a. Not a phrase. That was commonly. That was not like a 6, 7 thing on tick Tock where everyone was talking about Average Joe's. Pat Murphy conjured that one out of his mind palace and remembered a movie he had seen 20 years ago. Like, so they've called them the Average Joe's because the manager calls them that. Because the manager, he's like. It's such interesting, like, cognitive dissonance. Like, he's. His number of nicknames for this team. He's like, I call him. I call them woodpeckers, you know? Then he's like, I call them cliffhangers, because at any moment, they could be, like, out of the majors. Like, you know, you're just like, all right, so you guys are definitely the underdogs. The other team has Shohei Ohtani. Like, what's going on here?

[Grant Brisby]

I think that's what it goes back to, is the other. The other Team has Showho Tani yes, the brewers are underdogs at the same time I do watched the brewers and I was skeptical. I picked the Cubs to win that series because I thought that they're up the middle defense was going to take away what the brewers had done for most of the regular season. They put pressure on the Cubs up the middle defense. So I don't know if I can put them as the underdogs in this series because I really think that the Dodgers defense is going to get tested in a way that it doesn't get tested very often.

[Andy McCullough]

That is the, the supreme advantage that the brewers will have is that when the ball is in play, they're probably going to catch it and when the ball is in play for the Dodgers, it's going to be more of an adventure. The issue for the brewers is they're going to have to put said ball and play and they're not a team that strikes out a lot. You know, they, they do make contact, but they're going to be facing Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, S.H. otani, Tyler Glass. Now like tough, tough day at the office at for the very least for the first, you know, five, six innings every night. And so I do feel like the Dodgers, you know, have to be the favorites just on, you know, their top end talent. But to say that it would be, you know, shocking for Milwaukee to win this series, absolutely not. Their style of baseball works. It's just a lot more has to click in a way that it's hard. It takes a longer time to explain.

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[Sam Miller]

I would agree. Not shocking. I think, you know, it's baseball, so you could very easily imagine, you know, the Dodgers walking all over him. You could also imagine, you know, the Dodgers being flat and the brewers having a good week and walking all over the Dodgers. It happens. Matt Trueblood had a, something he said at Baseball Prospectus that really rang true, which is if you imagine this series coming down to one play, we all know who wins at that point. Like if, if a team has to make a play, the brewers are the team that is more likely to make a play.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

And so if you, if you come, I mean, you know, if you come up with scenarios where the game is, you know, constantly close and you know, balls are bouncing everywhere and who's gonna, you know, play the fundamentals better or who's going to put pressure on you better or something like that, then that's where the brewers, you know, advantage starts to come through. And a lot of postseason series do come down to that. You know, that would be the way it works. The problem is for the brewers that it is also very plausible that the Dodgers will just sweep them, that it will be four not close games. Dodgers offense puts up a ton of runs, ace starters shove, and that things like left handed relievers don't really become much of a a factor in the series. It's a kind of a real problem for the brewers that they only have like one starter.

[Andy McCullough]

Yes, it is.

[Sam Miller]

Specifically because this is, it's this round, it. The wild card round, which they just survived narrowly. The wild card round is perfect for a team with one starter. You know, you got no more than two games in a row without travel. You've got two off days in a span of a week and you don't have the increasing familiarity that the other team is going to have with your relievers through exposure. A seven game series, very different. You're going to have a three game stretch. Most pitchers you know, in this day and age have never basically thrown three days in a row. So that's going to tax you. You have a lower concentration of off days and the exposure tax. There's been some really good writing on this. The familiarity tax. Yeah, there's a piece of baseball perspectives on that today as well. The more you see relievers, the more batters see relievers in a short time period, the better they do against them. It's not unlike the third time through the order penalty that starters have. And if this game goes to a Game 7, Aaron Ashby is probably going to be facing Otani and Freeman for like the sixth time. Correct. And there's going to be like. That's a real problem for their game management.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, the brewers just, they just played five games with three off days. Now they have to play seven games with two off days. That's a way different. And it sounds like Jacob Mizarowski will get a start which isn't all that different from how they've been using him. He'd been the bulk guy coming in in like the second or the third. It'd be curious to see if they'll maybe extend him out. You know, Mizrowski did look pretty good against the Cubs, you know, like the brewers, if they, if they run a straight bullpen game tonight, which they're probably not going to do, they're probably going to have, I suspect, Jose Quintana as the bulk guy, maybe Quinn Priester, I don't know. But if they ran a straight bullpen game tonight and just kind of emptied the clip, that's a tough day at the office for the Dodgers. The problem is you got to play tomorrow and then you got to play three more and they really can't do that all that many times. And so you're going to need Priester, Quintana and frankly, Freddie Peralta, who is at a really nice season, but is also the type of pitcher who the Dodgers kind of get to, type of good pitcher who the Dodgers kind of get to. You need, you know, those three guys plus Mizorowski to really take down a lot of innings because look like Jared Koenigs had a good year. The idea that he and Aaron Ashby are going to completely neutralize Otani in the way that Christopher Sanchez did, I think that is kind of wishful thinking for brewers fans.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, I think there are lefties that Otani has trouble with. Specific lefties. Like, if you look at his, his batter history, there's some that he just can't get to. I don't think we know that yet. About the brewers guys. When you're talking about, you're listing the Dodgers rotation, right? And you're going there Sotani, it's Yamamoto. It's Glass now. And then we get to the brewers and we say, well, they don't really have a rotation. I think that that's remarkable. And it's very 2025 that we're even talking about these. Well, which one's the underdog? Because you just listed like four all Stars. And then you get to the, the lineup and oh yeah, one of the guys hits too. And he's the best hitter, you know, of his generation almost. I was a, an amateur Dodgers Ologist. You were a professional Dodgers Ologist. Is this the best set up their rotation has been for the postseason? And like, follow up question. Is this like the most talented rotation that they've had, even though they had, you know, great Granky and Kershaw and all that stuff?

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, I mean, it probably is. You know, I think the, the 2017 version that was, that was Kershaw, Hill, Darvish, Alex Wood is, was pretty good, but, you know, a lot of it is just like, you know, Snell, Snell, Yamamoto are really, really awesome. Ohtani. They're kind of interestingly pushing back into the middle of the series. I think they're very, you know, they're saying it's not because they want his bat to get going, but it seems pretty clear they want his bat to get going. They were, they were pretty frustrated with his, his swing decisions in the DS against the Phillies. They felt like he was getting himself out more than anything else. And so they're trying to kind of get his, you know, get the stick going and take some, some off his plate. But yeah, like, when your number four starter is Tyler Glasnow, who, like, when he's right, is like freakishly, you know, talented.

[Sam Miller]

Like.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, I mean, it's just hard to conjure up a better rotation, you know, especially like, I mean, yeah, Snell looked so good against the Phillies. I mean, his, when he's, when he's right. And he's, like, getting guys to chase. Right. I mean, we've all seen Blake Snell starts where you're just, like, looking at your watch and you're just like, how come that man, like, just. Will you get on with it? But when he's, like, locked in, you're just like, oh, there's like, not a way to hit this guy because his stuff's incredible. He suppresses slug and, you know, like, he's basically just always kind of challenging guys, sort of. So I. I don't know. Yeah, this has to be the best rotation.

[Grant Brisby]

It just.

[Andy McCullough]

It just has to be with Snell.

[Grant Brisby]

It's when. When he's right, he. Because his whole plan is just to throw right in the edge.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

You know, and just. And if he can hit his spots.

[Andy McCullough]

Yes.

[Grant Brisby]

I don't see how it works.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

When he.

[Andy McCullough]

When he's getting that call and when he's getting the chase on the pitch, it's slightly out. You're just like, oh, this guy's, you know, incredible.

[Grant Brisby]

Best pitcher ever since.

[Sam Miller]

It is really bad fortune for the brewers that they're running up against the Dodgers, who are unnaturally healthy at this point. Like, just health really favors them, and that makes it even harder if you're the underdog. You know, the Dodgers have some relievers on the il, but otherwise, the plan, the opening day plan, is basically there and fully operational. The brewers have, you know, obviously their best or second best pitcher isn't available in this series, but also, you know, Christian Yellich is limited to DHing because lower back stuff. Jackson Churio is a little tender with the hamstring, so he's limited to the corner outfield and doesn't seem to be moving quite so well out there. Those are their two best players, probably, and they're both compromised a little bit, and it affects what they're able to do as far as moving guys around. So that is another thing that just favors the Dodgers. And it's not, you know, it's probably just luck. You know, they got to this part of the season and they're healthy, like, whoever. Whoever does that. But they have.

[Andy McCullough]

Man, it's almost like that's the plan all along, and they don't care about the regular season anymore. The stardom of the talent involved to let you in, like the major decisions should let, you know kind of who's the underdog and that, you know, the Dodgers are talking about where Shohei Ohtani is gonna slot into the rotation because they need to get, you know, his Bat going. And, you know, he's the first player to do this since Babe Ruth. The brewers are trying to figure out if they can afford to play Jake Bowers in the outfield. I thought that was funnier. Okay, well, whatever.

[Grant Brisby]

No, it's true.

[Andy McCullough]

It's not funny, but, like, Pat Murphy's just like, no, we really want to get Bowers's bat in there. And you look up, you're like, yo, Powers, he must just be, like, a righty killer. And it's like, no, he's got a.750, the OPS against righties. He's like a totally fine reserve, you know, three corners. Corners guy.

[Grant Brisby]

But, yeah, his, like, his best attribute, I think, as a player, is he makes me think of Jack Bauer.

[Sam Miller]

The Dodgers top four pitchers have a collective 30 years of major league experience. 30 seasons in the majors. 30. And they have three years where they qualified for the ERA title. Yeah. And yet they're all healthy right now.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah. Yep. It's almost like they planned it. And meanwhile, they've got, you know, Sasaki down there in. In the back end, who's become the best pitcher in the world. They can't keep getting away with this.

[Grant Brisby]

They can't. They most certainly can. All right, let's reset. Let's reset. Reset our predictions. Let's. Let's pick the World Series. You think you're gonna see in the World Series. You think you would prefer. Let's go. Andy. Andy.

[Andy McCullough]

Oh, what I would prefer is, no offense to anyone from any city who's not here, but I prefer to do, you know, Dodgers, Mariners, because the flights are much better. I mean, I'm. I look, I'm rooting for me. That's what I'm rooting for. Dodgers, Mariners compared to Dodgers, Blue Jays, or, I mean, Brewers, Blue Jays is tolerable because you can fly to o'.

[Sam Miller]

Hare. So.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, that's. That's what I would prefer. Like, you know, that's. That's my. That's the outcome that helps my life. What do I think it will be? I do think it will be Dodgers, Blue Jays. But, you know, the Blue Jays did. They lost some shine last night, losing that game. That. That's a real problem. As we.

[Sam Miller]

As we discussed Will be Dodgers, Mariners, Dodgers, Mariners is probably the best for, like. Right. Like, more people will be reading about it. I think if it's Dodgers, Mariners than any other outcome. And, you know, as a writer who likes to get retweets, that's not nothing. But I think that any combination of any two teams will Will definitely be super interesting to me, and I'll have people I'm rooting for and enjoy the outcomes.

[Grant Brisby]

That's a good point. There's no bad permutation here. There's no, you know, like, I think there are some possibilities. I think if it was like, Astros, Dodgers, you know, but this is not it. I will go in my heart of hearts, I want it to be Brewers, Mariners, because I love the idea of, you know, first timers who's going to get their first championship. And I felt similarly going into 2016, where you could see the Cubs in the then Indians on a collision course, and you were just like, man, if that could happen, that would be the coolest World Series ever. And it kind of was. It was up there. I mean, we've had. We've been blessed with a lot of great. That was a good one in the last couple decades. But I. I think I'm going to go Blue Jays, brewing, Brewers, just for no reason other than it sounds. Maybe I'm just. I love alliteration. I don't know. But just Blue Jays, brewers has a feel to it, and it's gonna, you know, you can't say that the Blue Jays don't. Aren't hungry because it's been a few decades. So I love that, and I think.

[Andy McCullough]

That'S gonna be good.

[Sam Miller]

The thing I root for most in the postseason is always starters pitching on their throw day. I. I love starters pitching on their throw day. Is there any chance we're going to get some throw day shenanigans from the Dodgers in this series, or is it too soon and too, too odd of a staff?

[Andy McCullough]

You could maybe see Glasnow in game seven, potentially game six or seven. Glasnow could be. Could do something like that. I don't, I don't foresee that with Yamamoto. I definitively do not foresee that with Otani. I don't think it makes sense with Snell because there's just not. Snell's going to be set up for one in five and so. But I think Glasnow in a. In a late stage scenario would make some sense.

[Grant Brisby]

All right, this has been episode number 184 of the roundtable. We'll be back on Friday. We won't know who's gonna win, but we'll know a lot more. Oh, wait, Andy's.

[Andy McCullough]

I just will say, as far as the brewers guys pitching on their throw day, you'll see.

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[Andy McCullough]

Who knows? They have one starter. So, like, is today Jose Canadian, Tana's throw day maybe like, is today Quinn Priester's throw day? Who can say?

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, and that's why the Dodgers are the underdogs. All right, we'll see you back on Friday. Thanks for listening.

[Andy McCullough]

I was very wrong.

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