← The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Windup: A show about Baseball
The Roundtable | Ohtani is really good at baseball, what's next for the Brewers & Game 7!
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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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Bill Simmons
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- [01:33]
Andy McCullough
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- [02:02]
Grant Brisby
This is the wind up. Welcome to episode number 186, the Round Table. Grant Brisby here at and McCullen. Sam Miller. Andy, how you doing?
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Andy McCullough
I'm good.
- [02:25]
Grant Brisby
Sam Miller, how you doing?
- [02:26]
Bill Simmons
Hello.
- [02:28]
Grant Brisby
All right, we're going to talk. So we're recording at a little bit of an awkward time as game seven of the ALCS is Tonight. So we're not going to talk about it. The other complication, I'm not going to talk about sh. Otani. So this is going to be a real tough podcast because I refuse to talk about. I refuse to.
- [02:44]
Bill Simmons
We're not talking about the Game seven.
- [02:46]
Grant Brisby
Do you want to just.
- [02:47]
Andy McCullough
We'll talk about Game seven.
- [02:48]
Bill Simmons
It's a Game seven.
- [02:50]
Grant Brisby
All right. Three, two, one.
- [02:52]
Andy McCullough
No, we should leave this in because really, the thing about these podcasts is that they're evergreen.
- [02:58]
Grant Brisby
Ah, that's a good.
- [03:03]
Sam Miller
All right.
- [03:04]
Grant Brisby
But we're gonna talk about Otani first, right? We're gonna. We're gonna talk. We're gonna go into sh. Otani. Did he have the greatest day of any person who ever lived ever in history, sports or not? That's where we're at. The hyperbole has. No, but I mean, you. You saw the articles. Like, did he have the greatest baseball day ever?
- [03:24]
Darina
Maybe.
- [03:25]
Andy McCullough
Maybe I blocked a punt in a JV football game in 2003. So he's at least in the top two.
- [03:32]
Grant Brisby
Yeah, yeah. My daughter hit a walk off double against a girl who's going on a D1 scholarship or another sport. So basically, same thing.
- [03:41]
Andy McCullough
My good friend Mike Sielski of the Philadelphia Inquire, delightful columnist from the Philadelphia Inquirer, has, you know, joined the chorus of people. Of all the people in Philadelphia being like, yo, y' all forget about Rick Wise. Yeah. I mean, really, Rick Wise threw a no hitter with two homers. Like, that might be better.
- [04:03]
Bill Simmons
It's kind of fascinating that no one knew about that until this. Like, like everybody kind of knows who's hit four homers. Everybody knows the three homer World Series. Guys like Reggie Jackson hit three homers in a World Series game. Yeah. Not even a close game. They weren't even like leverage homers. And it's one of the most famous feats in sports. And Rick Wise doing a two homer no hitter, it was like pretty niche knowledge up until four days ago. And there's something interesting about that that I think speaks to Otani. I don't know. Look, Ohtani already maybe had the greatest day in baseball history when he went 6 for 6 with three homers and infinity RBIS and stole his 50th base to become the first 5050 guy. And the Dodgers clinched the division all in the same day. Like, that was already maybe the greatest day anybody had ever had. And then this is a new greatest day anybody had ever had. And it's kind of interesting to compare those two and which one is more memorable or which One will be the one that people talk about more. And I do think it's this one. I. I think it's this one. But the, the big obstacle of it is that no one's ever gonna chase it. No one's ever gonna challenge it. This performance is not in conversation with lots of other baseball performances. It's not like, oh, well, well, like someone had done five, five shutout innings and two and a half playoff homers. You know, like, the closest thing you could get was Rick Wise. And the fact that, like, no one talked about Rick Wise speaks to that. It's not in conversation with other daily, you know, pursuits, you know, ambitions. So I think that Otani's latest will probably go down as his defining day, but it does have a little bit of an uphill climb in the sense that, like, just no one's going to get close to it. No one's going to be halfway through an Otani. Right.
- [05:59]
Andy McCullough
Yeah. I mean, the phrase that Dodgers people have been using increasingly over the past two years with Otani is one of one to describe him. And now it's like the stock answer when you're like, dude, what about sh. And be like, yeah, he's one of one. And that phrase, I feel like the first time you hear it, you're like, the second time you're like, good phrase. Third time you're like, I hate that.
- [06:24]
Bill Simmons
Phrase when I think of the one. The one of one thing, you know, like, you've got the Marvel superheroes, and sometimes they just make a Marvel superhero that's too powerful. Like, he bends physics. Right. Or he's a. He's a wizard, and you have the wizard fighting Hawkeye, and you're like, they can't fight. Like. And so there has to be, like, a lot of plot to keep them separate because they can't do judo.
- [06:50]
Sam Miller
Right.
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Bill Simmons
You can't do judo against, you know, Captain Marvel. Right. So Otani is. You can't put him in hand toand combat with other ball players. It's just not. They're doing different movies.
- [07:05]
Grant Brisby
He's Galactus.
- [07:06]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [07:06]
Grant Brisby
He's eating worlds.
- [07:07]
Andy McCullough
Unless it's Christopher Sanchez. Unless you're a lefty with a good two seamer. That's his kryptonite, I guess. I. I don't know.
- [07:16]
Grant Brisby
It's almost garish. Like, I was almost not enjoying it. Like, I was, but I was. It was just like, when it works out and it's for the Dodgers, Like, I bet if it were working out for the Blue Jays in the mar. Whatever, it's like, ah, this is amazing. But it's like, there's something about the best team with this one of one. And I'll just say it. I think he's one of one. This one of one player.
- [07:37]
Bill Simmons
Unicorn.
- [07:38]
Grant Brisby
Yeah, it's just a unicorn. Total unicorn. It's almost like when it works out that neatly, it's like, okay, come.
- [07:43]
Bill Simmons
Come on.
- [07:43]
Grant Brisby
And yet we were like one Orion Kerkering. Throw away from the narrative being what happened to Ohtani in the postseason, man. Yeah, he just kind of disappeared.
- [07:51]
Bill Simmons
It's part of what made it so great, I think. Yeah, he set up the story. That's the thing is when you say that it's almost too neat or whatever, it does kind of, like, open up this little part of your skepticism where you're like, well, why doesn't he just do this all the time? Like, he feels like he's totally in control when it's this perfect, when it's the clinching game, when it's had a couple week narrative to set it up, when it's three homers and one is, like, the longest homer in Dodger Stadium history, and everything is like, just better than you would even sit. Like, like, I got to poker night and friends, like, so did Ohtani have the greatest game of all time? I'm like, well, I don't really. I'm already bored of this conversation. He's like, but, I mean, come on, six shutout innings and two homers? And I'm like, dude, you turned off the TV too early. It was three homers. Two was enough. And then he goes and hits a third, and it does make you feel like he's in again. Like, it's Thanos territory, where it's just like, is this even interesting narratively? He's too in control. But of course, that's not how it is. I'm, like, in the moment for him. I'm sure it's hard. Like, I'm sure he's like, wow, I just surprised myself.
- [08:57]
Andy McCullough
He does, though, I think more than any player I can remember, have a sense for, like, dramatic tension and sort of narrative arcs more so, like. And. And that is what leads you to believe. It's like, I was talking to some Dodger people after the game, you know, covering it, and I was like, sort of just like, I know he can't do stuff on command, but it does kind of feel that way, doesn't it? And they were like, yes, yes, it does. You know, and it's like, obviously, if you. You know, if he could go, if he could hit. If you could go full Steve Nebraska, right, and just hit a home run and, you know, strike out the side every time he would. But like, he is human in some ways, but he. His entire professional life has been about defying expectations. You know, it wasn't like he was, you know, he was encouraged to be a two way player in Japan. He had to buck against, you know, the entire system of Japanese baseball in order to be a two way player. He had to buck against the entire system of American baseball to do it here. And in these past, you know, five years or so, he's had to basically overcome the limitations of his own body, right? Like, he is not far removed from a second major elbow reconstruction, which makes, you know, the fact that he is not just a pitcher, but a really good pitcher all the more incredible. And then you add it, you know, again, he's the best hitter. Aaron Judge is statistically better. And this is not the slight Judge, but like, I would be curious to see what Ohtani would do if he was just a hitter. You know, like everything he did last year was while he was rehabbing. You know, he was like throwing bullpen sessions on the side. So he just has a. A flair for the dramatic and an ability to sort of overcome not adversity, but just doubts in a way that I just.
- [10:48]
Grant Brisby
It's kind of unfathomable if I'm gonna go for an analogy with Otani. Do you guys know what the worst sport for your kid to play is as a parent? Like, what. What's the worst sport to watch? It's swimming, right? And so swimming, you got to get up early for all these practices. You go there and then you drop the kid off. There's warmups. And then when it's time for your kid to do something, it's like a minute, it's a, you know, it's nothing. And you've wasted your whole day, right? You start here and you, you advance and you advance, and then you're a great swimmer. You're up there, you're on a high school team, you're in college, man, you're on the Olympics. Your whole life focused in this, this horrible sport. And then you get to the, the pinnacle and you're the second best. And there's only one way that you could feel good about that and that, that's if Katie Ledecky is number one. Like, that's just such a. Like she's galactus, right? And then you. But you can still train, go, like, I'm gonna be the second Best and feel feels like that's where Otani is, where he's just like the combination of pitching, hitting puts him in Ledecky territory. The difference is, is that, well, it's more like a relay race. And you've got Kiki Hernandez swimming up Max Muncie. I bet you can do a mean doggy paddle, but you get the idea. It's a team sport. And I just feel like Ohtani is there now where he's just. I'll just say it one of one.
- [12:00]
Bill Simmons
Like, I feel like Babe Ruth was Ledecky. Bonds was Ledecky. Willie Mays was Ledecky. Shohei Otani is the only one who's in a flying race, you know, and he's setting records in flying. If everybody could fly, they also would be worse than him at flying. But you're like, this is only one guy in the heat. Ohtani. I don't know if you guys ever saw like a couple years ago his, I don't know how this came out, but his high school goals that he set for himself were published. MLP.com wrote about like hit the. When he was maybe 17 or something, he wrote like his goal for every year of his career. And, and what's kind of interesting about them is that hitting doesn't show up. Not one hitting achievement doesn't mention two way player. It's all pitching. He envisioned himself being the greatest pitcher in baseball history. And so when you start thinking about what's next for Ohtani, there's some conversation about whether it's worth him pitching or whether it's worth him, you know, pitching as a starter when he's already so good as a hitter and all pitching seems to do. And I mean, sometimes it's great. Like on Friday it was great, but it does, you know, like, it makes him do a lot of rehab. It makes him, you know, he often, you know, it takes a physical strain on him. Right. Like you could make the case that maybe he should scale back the pitching goals. But I wonder if his 30s, if his heart is actually in the pitching and whether there's going to be kind of a conflict or a tension there as he like wants to be now a great pitcher. Like, will we see phase two of Shohei Ohtani as he really dedicates himself to being the best pitcher in baseball during his 30s.
- [13:44]
Andy McCullough
Well, I'll tell you right now, I would suspect that his goal for next season is to win the Cy Young Award. I would suspect that that will be what he is targeting because if you look at the scope of his career.
- [13:57]
Grant Brisby
Right.
- [13:58]
Andy McCullough
He's trying to do things that no one has ever done while being the best at the things that have already been accomplished, if that makes sense. Right. So, like, the first thing is he has to break through and prove he can be a two way player. Kind of did that in 18, but his elbow prevented him from keep doing it. 2021 is the first year you get full Otani experience where he's doing both. He wins the MVP, he does it again in 2022, but he does not win the MVP because Aaron Judge hits 62 home runs. And what does Ohtani say? Okay, you dummies like home runs. Fine, I will lead the American League in home runs. Which is exactly what he did. He tears his elbow up again going into 2024. He's like, okay, well, I can't really throw. Why don't I just do something else? Oh, you gave the MVP last year to Ronald Acuna for stealing all those bases, for doing, you know, 40, 70. Fine, I'll do 50.
- [14:52]
Bill Simmons
50. Okay.
- [14:53]
Andy McCullough
And this year it's like, you guys don't believe that I can pitch because I'm coming off a second elbow reconstruction. I will do it again, and I will pitch my team into the World Series. I suspect that the thing he is going to be targeting next year is the Cy Young. That's going to be very hard to win. That's going to be very, very hard to win. But I look at it as he's not going to stop pitching until he wins at least one Cy Young or his elbow completely disintegrates. Because as Sam said, that is the thing that animates him more than anything else. That is what all of his, you know, childhood goals were set towards. That's who his childhood hero, you know, you. Darvish was a pitcher, and that is why he hasn't given this up. It's the thing, you know, like, hitting for him is fun. Pitching is work, and he is very much animated by that work.
- [15:38]
Grant Brisby
I would say this is gonna sound snarky, and I don't. I don't mean it to, but what is the difference in your head between the. The goal of every pitcher, every pitcher in baseball where I'm gonna pitch to the best of my capabilities and I believe I have Cy Young talent within me and just someone actually trying for a sign. Is there like a. A marked difference between trying your best and actually trying to go for an award?
- [16:00]
Andy McCullough
I mean, I think it might involve, like, taking days off hitting wise, you know? You know, like, I I don't know, but I. I suspect that.
- [16:08]
Sam Miller
That.
- [16:08]
Andy McCullough
And this is again, with, like. It's not like he talks to me, you know, but like, that. It. Just thinking about the arc of his career and what's left. That's one box he is not checked. And I suspect it will be targeted, if not next year, then in the immediate, you know, in this period of time he has. While he's, you know, still got a healthy elbow.
- [16:28]
Grant Brisby
I just want to throw this out there. Lots of pitchers have won the Cy Young. No pitchers have helped the Mariners to a World Series before or the brewers to World Series before. So if he were to demand a trade next year to, like, say, the brewers, he could do something that's never been done before. That's a. That's a box to check. Sorry, Sam, I got you off.
- [16:45]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. The question would be, like, what. What can. What compromises can he make on the hitting side, or would he be willing to make. Or not even. Would he be willing. Is there even. Are there things he could do? And I. I would guess that, you know, because it's a physical strain, you know, taking a day off before he pitches would be one. Maybe you could imagine simply, like, when he's the road team, maybe it's as simple as, like, batting fifth so he doesn't have an at bat before he gets to the mound in the first inning, you know, has a few fewer at bats. But there isn't a whole lot he's going to do because, again, he's. Well, I mean, he's too valuable as a hitter for him to demand that the Dodgers let him, you know, quit hitting or bat 270 times in a year. He's just too valuable to the team. So he's going to have to bat most of the time.
- [17:33]
Andy McCullough
I'm not saying he's going to be able to do it. I just. If you're thinking about what's next, that's the thing that. That he's going to be chasing. And he, you know, I think it was 20, 22. Like, he was a really strong case on the rate stats to win the AL Cy Young, but it was just kind of a volume issue. You know, it's like he made only, like, maybe 25 starts or something like that, or, you know, 27, and there was a couple other better candidates. So, like, the rate stats are all there. It's just a matter of if you could find a way to make 30 starts, which will be challenging given, you know, the way that his schedule, pitching schedule is structured. I Think he'll be in the conversation?
- [18:06]
Bill Simmons
Certainly, yeah. That year he finished fourth in Cy Young voting and finished second in Baseball Reference war, Only two tenths of a of a win behind Dylan Cease. So by the war, he was, you know, he even had the case that he had the volume. But it's just hard to, it's hard to get votes over people who've pitched 30 more innings. That's still, that still remains something that's very powerful for voters.
- [18:28]
Grant Brisby
We have talked a lot about the brewers on this podcast over, over the season. It didn't end well for them, and I wondered if we could put a pin in that. Let me just go through. In the four game NLCS, they scored 1, 2, 3, 4 runs in four games. It comes out to exactly one per game. Do we take something from this? Do we learn? Do we just say, that's baseball and if you played it again, it might turn out differently? Or were the Dodgers just clearly better nine times out of ten they're going to win this series type thing?
- [19:05]
Bill Simmons
A little of both, right? I mean, Grant, you can take it. You could probably take a little victory lap. You were very bearish on the Brewers. I was thinking about on September 30, you know, the calendar switched over and I thought, ah, this is when we switch from don't sleep on the brewers, that's a real smart team, to oh, don't overrate the Brewers. They're too mid for the postseason. And that's like, you know, the annual conversation that we have when the calendar switches to October. So, you know, it's a, it's a generation long trend kind of at this point, so you can't totally ignore it or, you know, give them the benefit of the doubt. You know, the Dodgers obviously have great pitching, but they, you know, they still give up some runs to some teams and not the Brewers. So it makes you ask, did something catastrophically fail in the planning? I don't know. I mean, you watch that series and you go, oh, I can't imagine the brewers ever winning this series. No matter how long it goes. There is no seven game stretch where they win four out of seven. But I don't, I don't know. I don't know. Is what the brewers do doomed to fail at that stage every time? Do they just like have a block where they cannot get past this stage? So that's question one and then question two. If you answer yes and you go down the decision tree, then the question is, so should they change or is this still a successful franchise? Is that would we define this season as successful, this era as successful. And I think to the. The first one, probably not, though it. It sort of feels that way. To the second question, I would say I would keep doing it. I. I think you just keep running it back and wait until circumstances favor you. You know, some. Some things break. Right. I mean, obviously, look, obviously they could beat the Dodgers. If they had this series 10 times, they would win once. Right. I think, I think you just keep running it back and hope that eventually, you know, someone knocks out the Dodgers or you knock out the Dodgers or, you know, just your guys get hot. I think that's the best you can do in baseball. Yeah.
- [21:13]
Andy McCullough
And their position player core is still so young that it's really. It's hard to draw. Like, it's hard to really associate what happened in 2025 with, you know, the team losing the wild card game in 2019, there's just been so much turnover. You know, Bryce Turang is 25, Sal Freelix 25. You know, Andrew Vaughn, who I guess is part of the core now, is like 27. Jackson, Cheerios. Like 16 still, you know, like, I mean, William Contreras is 27, but he's going to be a free agent in two years. And so their position player core is really young. And there's, you know, I was in their clubhouse after they lost game four, and I've been in, you know, good. A good amount of losing series clubhouses. And this was definitely the most upbeat I've ever seen. One of those rooms, you know, know, like, you come in there and you kind of expect it to be, like, really quiet. Fellas were just, like, congratulating each other on a great year and, you know, like, sort of saying it was a wild ride. I mean, it helped. They'd had about four days to grieve the end of their season. As soon as Yamamoto finished them off and they got on the plane, it seemed like, you know, kind of a fade accompli. But I mean, I think all the things that, like, brewers people said and Christian Yellich said going into the postseason, you know, when everyone's like, well, you guys don't hit home runs. Like, well, we have guys who can hit home run home runs. And they did have guys against the Cubs who could hit home runs. Those same players did not hit home runs against the Dodgers. And it's pretty hard to string together four hits in a row against Blake Snell. You know, they ran into some really good pitching in game one and two and four. Glasnot was was fine in Game three, they probably could have gotten to him, but he, it wasn't, you know, it's not like he was bad by any stretch of the imagination and he was pitching the shadows, but they just kind of, you know, they had a chance in Game 1 if, if Bryce Tarang doesn't flinch on Blake Trinen's pitch, that game's tied and the series is, you know, Dodgers probably still win the Series, but it's definitely a different series than the way it went. So I don't think it's really this postseason serves as a, as a proof of concept or a refutation of concept if that is such a thing. For what the brewers are trying to do and given their like, market size and their resources, like anything besides running it back would be kind of crazy.
- [23:25]
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Andy McCullough
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Bill Simmons
No, it's not.
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- [25:23]
Grant Brisby
I do wonder, you know, the talk about, are the brewers going to trade Freddie Peralta has already started. I hate that sort of chatter.
- [25:33]
Sam Miller
Yeah.
- [25:33]
Grant Brisby
And it's good stuff. Good stuff.
- [25:36]
Andy McCullough
Very popular in Milwaukee.
- [25:38]
Grant Brisby
Yes. I don't like it because it feels to me like. How do I put this? So when they traded Corbin Burns, they got a regular out of it, right?
- [25:47]
Bill Simmons
They.
- [25:48]
Grant Brisby
It's Joey Ortiz, right? And Joey Ortiz, I think, still has a fine future. The brewers have him on a really interesting plan, which is, step one, get him off my fantasy team. Step two, he's a successful major league player, but I. I just think he's not Corbin Burns's peak.
- [26:02]
Darina
Right.
- [26:02]
Grant Brisby
I don't think he ever will be. He's a fine defensive short stuff, what have you. I think if you keep doing that, you're going to more likely get more Joey's Ortiz than Freddy's Peralta, and that's going to be, you know, sending you down and down further and. And having you produce more rabbits out of the hat. Do you keep swinging for that? Maybe this is when we get our Fernando Tatis Jr. Do you keep swinging for trying to get that generational player out of these trades?
- [26:26]
Andy McCullough
I think, you know, in the story I wrote, made clear they, like, don't have to trade him for financial reasons. They're not looking to trade him. It's more that. If you're thinking about how the brewers are going to get better this off season, this is one avenue, and this is also an avenue that they have explored in recent years. They traded Corbin Burns. They traded Devin Williams. Both those guys were a year away from free agency. Freddie Peralta is in that sort of position now. But at the same time, they also had Willie Adamas in a similar spot. You know, going into the 2024 season, there was a lot of chatter about them moving Adamus. They decided against it because he was, one, pretty important to what they were trying to do in 2024. And two, they didn't find an offer that they felt could supersede that. And so Peralta is, for all the obvious reasons, he's a really good player. He had his best season last year. He's only making $8 million. He's the perfect sort of veteran guy to build a rotation around. You know, you have him as the number one with, you know, Misarowski Gasser and Henderson and a, you know, Priester and a bunch of other guys, you know, from their farm system. But Peralta offers the stability. At the same time, if you're the brewers and you're trying to think about how to get better and you know you're not going to be spending heavily on free agents.
- [27:36]
Sam Miller
Yeah.
- [27:37]
Andy McCullough
You have to look at what the trade market is. You have to see if a team is willing to make, is willing to give you some version of what, you know, the Cubs gave up for Kyle Tucker. You know, like the Cubs gave up a haul for Kyle Tucker. In retrospect, right. Like, like East Doc Paredes is a good big leaguer, whatever. But then Cam Smith, like he held his own ish at like 21 in the majors after having played like 25 professional games or something like that before this year. Right. And so if you're the brewers and you're trying to think like, okay, how do we get a Cam Smith? If you feel like you, you know, are in the market for that type of player, which is who you should be, the only really way to do that is Peralta. I don't know if they're going to trade them. I know they're obviously going to listen and explore what's out there. But like, it, it makes sense given how they do business.
- [28:25]
Grant Brisby
So I get that that that's how they do business. And it's, it's something that other teams do very well. Guardians, the Rays. I do wonder if there's some point I get the restrictions that they are in with their market. I don't think it's wild to think the brewers could one of these offseason, say, you know what we're going to have, we're going to have a Diamondbacks kind of payroll. We're going to have, we're going to, we're going to get up there, we're going to have an Orioles or a Tigers kind of payroll.
- [28:51]
Sam Miller
Right.
- [28:51]
Grant Brisby
I don't think that's unrealistic. I would think this is the off season where they would just say, you know what, let's, let's get a blank. Well, that one year pillow contract that falls through in February or March, that one 38 year old pitcher who just wants a one year deal, something like that, like this would be the off season to spend rather than do the same old same old with Freddie Peralta. I, I don't know, maybe I'm just too pie in the sky. Maybe I'm just not used to following smaller market teams like that.
- [29:18]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [29:19]
Andy McCullough
I mean, if you're suggesting that they should spend more, I mean, yeah, we're pro labor. You know, we're all good with that. But, like.
- [29:25]
Grant Brisby
But more. More so than even other Brewer seasons. Like, this kind of feels like, okay, now the sense of urgency should be there, I think, in a way that wasn't before.
- [29:36]
Bill Simmons
Just because they got close or because they don't feel like they're on a cliff or anything like that, right?
- [29:40]
Grant Brisby
Yeah, because they got close with Freddie Peralta and seven variations of Aaron Ashby. Like, I feel like, you know, they. They won so many games this year. 97 games doing a Brew Crew ball thing. But what if they actually had, like, just a rotation you could rely on or even three fifths of a rotation you could rely on?
- [29:59]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [29:59]
Andy McCullough
I mean, if you're arguing, give a big pillow contract to Michael King.
- [30:03]
Grant Brisby
Like, please.
- [30:04]
Darina
Okay.
- [30:05]
Andy McCullough
But I bet you another team will offer more.
- [30:08]
Grant Brisby
I should own the Brewers.
- [30:09]
Bill Simmons
Bill James used to have his. His Keltner list of, like, qualitative questions about a player's hall of Fame, you know, credentials. Like, does he basically. Does he feel like a Hall of Famer? And one of the questions was, if this player were the best player on his team, could they win the World Series? And it just feels like the brewers don't have anybody that you would really say that about right now, and I don't know how much that matters. I have gotten in my head. I've kind of gotten to a place where I. I do feel like stars win in the postseason that. You know, there's some teams that have overperformed. You know, like, the Nationals weren't a great regular season team, and they won the World Series, but they had the best stars. You know, Strasberg, Scherzer, Rendon, Juan Soto. You know, the Braves weren't very good in 2021, but they won the World Series. They had, you know, three guys who finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, and the brewers just their model. Well, they're never going to add that player, really. They got Christian Yelich, and he became that player for two years, one of which, unfortunately ended when he fouled a ball off his leg in September. But that was kind of an accident. Christian Yelich was not a superstar before they got him. Maybe Jackson Churio is becoming that. Maybe not, though. Like, his two years have been incredibly consistent so far. And they're, you know, sub that level. Right. They're not really, like, super.
- [31:31]
Andy McCullough
Yeah, he's 21 years old.
- [31:33]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it could happen. Right? But not every. Not Every trajectory is. Is up. A lot of guys actually do peak early. If they developed a Jose Ramirez, you could imagine thinking that this plan looks a lot better. Again, I'm not saying they should. In fact, I'm emphatically not saying they should do anything different, necessarily. I'm a big regular season guy. I value the regular season. I probably value the regular season more than the postseason, except when the postseason is happening, when I get a little, you know, hysterical. But I'm a regular season guy, and the brewers have been a excellent regular season team, and I don't mind team. Just, you know, that's their plan, and they're going to roll the dice. If I imagine the next 10 years, do I think the brewers have a World Series in them in the next 10 years? I think I probably don't. Like. I think that they're less than 50 likely, maybe significantly less than 50 likely to win another, you know, to win their first franchise World Series.
- [32:29]
Grant Brisby
Another point is that the brewers didn't exactly get thumped by the Dodgers, Ohtani notwithstanding. They gave up 15 runs in four games. Like, that's. That's reasonable against an offense like the Dodgers. I mean, that is. And then you look at, well, what's wrong with the offense? Can we really extrapolate what's wrong with the blue brewers offense when Blake Snell and Yamamoto are pitching? Like, I. I don't know if nine shohes would have been enough to get to Blake Snell on that particular game.
- [32:58]
Andy McCullough
Well, Snell doesn't throw two seamers, so we.
- [33:01]
Bill Simmons
We did sort of obsess about the brewers offense. I mean, you know, they're the most studied offense in baseball this year. Their offense was built on hitting ground balls to infielders.
- [33:12]
Darina
Yeah.
- [33:12]
Bill Simmons
And the question was whether that would work in the postseason against better pitching, better defenses, more urgent defenses, or whether it could dry up and, you know, like, you couldn't build an offense around it against good pitchers, it turns out. Or at least in four games, maybe you could. But in four games, again, you're, like, just a lot more likely to sort of, like, close your eyes and luck into a home run against Blake Snell at his best than you are to get three singles in a row. Yeah.
- [33:44]
Andy McCullough
And when Blake Snell's throwing strikes at the pace that he was in that game with the change up he had, like, yeah, that was. That was very challenging. And I think it was David J. Roth who had that great post at some point during this series, which said something to the effect of, like, brewers are a really good team. And I get why it works, but when it doesn't work, man, this just looks like a lot of guys with a.720 OPS grounding out. It's like, I, you know, and again, it's like, look, their. Their whole thing. Their. Their thing was pressure. Their thing was, you know, forcing other teams to make plays. You go to game three, I, you know, forget the exact sequence, but they have, you know, one out, runner on third, hard ground ball. Max Muncie digs it out and makes the play clean at the plate. And it's just like, you know, during the regular season, you're scoring a lot of runs on that play because something happens, you know, to prevent, you know, the defense from. From making it. But the Dodgers tend to make those plays like they're. They're not a quote unquote. I mean, I don't think they're a great defensive team. Like, I. I think they clearly have some flaws, but they also have players who tend to, you know, show up and in the. In the biggest moments. So the brewers certainly did not embarrass themselves in the Series. Like, I want to be clear about that. Like, they got swept, but they, you know, were competitive. They threw the kitchen sink pitching wise at the Dodgers in a way that I was just like, oh, this is not sustainable. Like, there's just no way this is going to work. You know, over six or seven games, and it didn't even get there. But I'm more upbeat about Jackson Cheerio's future, I think, than. Than Sam is. But also being realistic that, you know, just because you have a 112 OPS when you're 21 doesn't mean you're gonna have a 150 when you're 24. Like, you can. He could be out of baseball. You know, I would bet against that, obviously, but I think he's going to be a pretty good player, and I think he probably could be the best player on a championship team. The thing that they were lacking, yeah, obviously was like, a star hitter, and their best players just did not play well enough to hang with the Dodgers.
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Bill Simmons
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New 5G phone.
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But I'm your hype man.
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- [37:46]
Grant Brisby
I could definitely see a re roll of this series where there's just a few more ground balls going between Muncie and Betts on the left side. And then they're, you know, we're thinking, you know, this is what they do, baby.
- [37:57]
Andy McCullough
They win game one. They're maybe still playing.
- [37:59]
Grant Brisby
What have we got thoughts about who's going to play the Dodgers. This, this episode is going to get turned around quick. We'll get a few hours of lead time. Mariners, Blue Jays.
- [38:09]
Bill Simmons
We're going to game seven, baby. Game seven.
- [38:13]
Andy McCullough
Game seven.
- [38:18]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [38:18]
Andy McCullough
This was a great litmus test of all the texts I sent mocking the Blue Jays for trading for Shane Bieber at the deadline, being like, oh great, they're going to Trust a guy 15 months out of Tommy John surgery. Good luck. So there could be a lot of egg on my face.
- [38:33]
Grant Brisby
What you failed to realize, moron, is that they had a minor league pitcher who was just going to come up and dominate the postseason. I was waiting for it. Where were you? Yeah, you need to read baseball America or the Athletic.
- [38:46]
Bill Simmons
So who's the favorite here? You got home field, home field, objective, home field, every time, all the time. Okay, so that helps. You got your starting rotation matchup. That's very subjective. Bieber versus Kirby. Kirby probably looks, but coming off a stinker. And you know, Bieber's looked quite, quite good as a Blue Jay. So that one different people will disagree. And then you got the completely maybe not real at all, maybe in total invention and has no effect whatsoever, but feels very strong. Momentum. Momentum definitely favors the Blue Jays right now. The Mariners haven't played well for four games other than a like a four inning stretch. And you know, the Blue Jays, I would say that just like who's played better in the postseason. The Blue Jays have had a plan and that plan has worked. They have struck out half as often as the other teams. Like, they have struck out more than seven times in only one game. They have struck out 30 fewer times than the Tigers, who are not, you know, they're still playing. They've struck out fewer times than the Cubs still. And that's their offense. It's totally working. Vlad Guerrero is on a heater and you know, so are a bunch of other guys who we made fun of for having high wars this year, the Mariners. They had a plan. That plan was rock solid starting rotation and it's just not working. They're kind of like, they've got guys who look gassed right now. They've got guys who are falling apart in the third inning. Game sevens are very different. Obviously you, you don't have to stick to a plan. We're gonna see a bunch of guys in this game no matter what. But they feel a little bit more up in the air because you don't like what, what can they draw from their May, June, July experience that plays in this game. They're kind of improvising, I would say in Game 7. Whereas the Blue Jays, they're just gonna play their game. So in that sense, I guess I feel a little bit more confident about the Blue Jays. I'll be interested to see if Vladimir Guerrero gets the, the Bonds treatment. These sudden onset. Bonds.
- [41:05]
Grant Brisby
The sob story. Yeah. Sudden onset.
- [41:06]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Nice.
- [41:07]
Grant Brisby
Nice. Yeah. This series, game three might have cured me from home field is a big deal home. Because it is. It's just, I mean it's obviously proven over centuries of sports, but the idea that the Mariners could come back to Seattle up to nothing in front of a fan base, that's just. They're dying for them to get in the World Series. That that crowd was absol lit and they lost because sometimes that's what happens in baseball. But I also think that there's a specific feeling where the anticipation is built up and up and up. And I think the Blue Jays will have this. I mean they haven't made a World Series since I was in high school. To where the. When the first thing goes wrong, when there's one misplay, one air, one hit by pitch, 42,000 people thinking, you know, for the last 30 years I feel like I've seen things gone wrong for this team when I wanted them to go right and it's happening again and it takes like one play to get them back in that three decade mindset and get nervous and tense up a little bit. That's what I felt happened to the Mariners. I mean, obviously the baseball happened and that was more important, but I don't have that like knee jerk response of home field advantage.
- [42:15]
Bill Simmons
It's.
- [42:15]
Grant Brisby
It's like a solve. It's going to, it's going to fix everything. That game three scarred me.
- [42:19]
Andy McCullough
Yeah. I don't know if Toronto has that same nervous energy that Seattle does. Their history is. I wouldn't describe it as tortured, but.
- [42:29]
Grant Brisby
There'S grown ass men with mortgages and kids about ready to leave the house that have never seen the Blue Jays in the World Series.
- [42:35]
Andy McCullough
Yeah, I mean, wow. People have mortgages at 30. I mean, maybe in Canada, I don't know. They probably have a social safety net there.
- [42:43]
Darina
Yeah.
- [42:44]
Bill Simmons
So it's been 30, 32 years. So grant and I were Giants fans, you know, growing up and I will definitely say that, like there came a point where I thought, oh, they'll just. That I'm gonna die without my favorite team winning World Series. And that's a tragedy. Like it really felt like it was never gonna happen. And until it happened, I was going to have an unfulfilled life. And I'm trying to remember specifically when that kicked in. I think to me it was probably 2003. It was probably Jose Cruz Jr. Dropped the ball against the Marlins. I think that's when I. And so that would have been 41 years without a franchise World Series title. So. But you know, the Blue Jays could have. Could a young Blue Jays fan be a little bit precocious in their fatalism maybe. I think it's a little early to feel generational, you know, barrenness.
- [43:37]
Grant Brisby
I guess where I'm going with this is because I've seen it with, with Niners fans a decade younger than me where it is. You know, I got to see the Niners and I was cognizant of what the Niners were doing when they were winning a Super Bowl. They just get like a Wikipedia page that says, yeah, it was great. You should have been there. Like if you haven't won since 93, real close to the cutoff of like.
- [43:58]
Andy McCullough
Oh, okay, come on. That's just being a sports fan.
- [44:02]
Bill Simmons
If you remember that World Series, like if you, if you were born in 1982 as a Blue Jays fan, you're not going to be there. The 43 year old blue Jays fan does not feel cursed. They don't get this. I'm not giving them this for like their, for their mental health. But if you are a 35 year old blue Jay fan who's never experienced it, do you start, is this your midlife crisis? Do you start feeling like your best days are behind you? That the, that the future is no brighter than the past was and that you are likely to die without your favorite team having a parade?
- [44:32]
Darina
I think it's close.
- [44:33]
Bill Simmons
I think it's pretty close. 35 is around the time, like I started taking daily medication when I was 31, 32. If I go camping and I get lost from this point on, I'll die because I won't have my meds. Right. And that's when you start having a very dark outlook on whether the future is going to be better than the past was. So 30, it's close for a Blue Jays fan. Give it 10 years and I'll say definitely, absolutely. It's close to there for a young Blue Jays fan.
- [45:05]
Grant Brisby
Let me add in one wrinkle. They've also watched people wait for the Maple Leaves to win a Stanley cup and then those people have died. And so like that's in their head too where it's like whatever has to happen, happen. Like the Maple Leafs, that's a different sport, but it's like the city sport. It's like, it's in the, it's in the DNA of Canada, man.
- [45:24]
Andy McCullough
How often do you think a team should win the championship? What's an acceptable rate to win a championship?
- [45:32]
Bill Simmons
I've always said not acceptable, but I would not.
- [45:35]
Andy McCullough
Philadelphia was 2 since 2018. Go bird.
- [45:38]
Bill Simmons
Here's what I think. I think you need basically the ideal. You don't get to. You don't get to ask for more. If you get one as a child 1 When your children are child and then that's it. Like, you get those two and you are good. You can want more, but you know, you're being greedy now that the.
- [46:00]
Andy McCullough
The Red Sox and the Cubs have kind of ended, you know, those streaks, there's like a competition of these various mid streaks to be like, who's more sad? And it's like, you gotta get to triple digits otherwise. I think it's just part of being a sports fan. Is that your team? You know, unless they are the Philadelphia Eagles, number one, undefeated, undisputed. They are defeated.
- [46:26]
Sam Miller
I.
- [46:27]
Grant Brisby
Whatever.
- [46:27]
Andy McCullough
And that's not to say that, like, it's not painful watching your team win or like, if you're a Brewers fan, like, it's not like a bummer or if you're a Mariners fan, it's not like torture. Our young Blue Jays writer, you know, Mitch Bannon, was writing about how, like, you know, fans who were like 32 were at the game and had never seen it. It's like, yeah, you're 32. Like, what?
- [46:48]
Sam Miller
What?
- [46:49]
Andy McCullough
Like, you're not old man. Like, your knees probably still work, but.
- [46:54]
Grant Brisby
Every one of us is the main character. You can understand that, right?
- [46:57]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [46:57]
Grant Brisby
I mean, some of them just think they are. They're not like me.
- [47:00]
Andy McCullough
But I just think that in general, being a sports fan is about a lack of fulfillment. If you're only searching for a championship. And then like, we no longer have. I guess Cleveland is probably.
- [47:12]
Bill Simmons
What's the. What's the last. Yeah, Cleveland is 48. And then, yeah, you've got Milwaukee, San Diego and Seattle have. Have never. And I also Colorado, but, you know, have never. And so those are like kind of a different thing. Not as long, but you can see why they would be, you know, psychologically significant. It's too messy. Like, none of these feels like Cubs, Red Sox does.
- [47:35]
Grant Brisby
But I think the question was when the Mariners score one run on the top of the first two, sphincters tighten a little bit in a way that is palpable. I think 30 years without is a lot of experience.
- [47:47]
Andy McCullough
I think they're going to be gassed up on the bat Blue and Tim Hortons and, you know, again, a social safety net, that it gives them hope of a brighter future.
- [47:56]
Grant Brisby
Their picture, their money's got pictures of a queen on it.
- [47:59]
Bill Simmons
I think I. I lean toward Andy. I. I think that there are certain personality types that start getting there right now. But I do think It's a little early. Look, here's the thing. The Blue Jays last World Series title is in color. That makes a big difference. Okay. You know, like, it exists in the same. In the same, you know, cinematic universe that we're currently in. Those guys from that World Series show up to, like, anniversaries, Right. They're still alive. They're still at, you know, like, old timers games. It's too recent, I think, to feel like the franchise itself.
- [48:36]
Andy McCullough
Yeah.
- [48:37]
Bill Simmons
Has got some, like, demon. It's got a purge.
- [48:39]
Andy McCullough
I did the math. Cleveland's 77 years. I think 80 feels like a round number that you can start to feel that you can, like, be like. All right, man, it's been a while.
- [48:49]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I wrote. Actually I wrote about this after the Cubs won because I wondered how long it would take for the Guardians to get this feeling because it clearly is not what the Cubs and Red Sox had when they were, you know, like, drought, still drought stricken. And so I went back to see when did people start talking about the Cubs drought as significant in the same way, like, you know, the curse the goat, you know, all that stuff. And it was the late 60s, and so they had gone from 1908. So it had been 60 years at that point before the narrative kicked off. So you could imagine that the Guardians would feel a similar pressure starting to build up that they could romanticize it. But it really is a lot different now because the Cubs were in a 16 team league. You just walked straight to the World Series if you won your division. You don't expect a team to win nearly as often now as you would have in, like, the 1930s.
- [49:43]
Grant Brisby
More teams.
- [49:44]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, more teams. I just.
- [49:46]
Andy McCullough
I mean, the Philadelphia Flyers have never won in my lifetime, and I just.
- [49:52]
Grant Brisby
Sharks. Same theater, man. I would give all of the Warriors. I'm just kidding. We're gonna come back on Friday. We're going to talk about who's actually in the World Series again. I'm calendar blind. How many games we have to talk about? 2.
- [50:08]
Bill Simmons
No, the world Series will start the day that we record next. Golly.
- [50:13]
Grant Brisby
Jesus Christ.
- [50:14]
Andy McCullough
Yeah, they have. They have a double calendar.
- [50:17]
Grant Brisby
It's funny. When I was doing bags in Brisby, I have no idea who's pitching that day generally. And so, like, bags would be like. Yeah. And the way the rotation's set up and I'm lucky if I know who the Giants are playing. Like, I'm just. I'm just stupid. They're doing.
- [50:29]
Andy McCullough
They're doing everything they can to avoid the NFL. So Game one is Friday, game two Saturday and then they'll, you know, they put in an extra day. So game three didn't coincide with the NFL.
- [50:41]
Grant Brisby
I have been taking to keeping a post it note next to me where I jot down my ADHD musings. And I just wanted to point out before we leave, Rick, Rick Wise. Not even my favorite pitcher. Home run from a pitcher named Rick with a four letter English word as a last name because Rick Camp exists. Rick Camp is my favorite. That's my favorite all time pitching performance.
- [51:04]
Andy McCullough
Hey Grant, could you, could you get a medical professional to jot down some ADHD medication?
- [51:11]
Grant Brisby
Oh, I have it. The problem is they take it about a half hour before this podcast. So you guys like by the end like then I look back at my notes and go like I'm really clear headed. But you guys, man, you get the nectar. You guys get the nectar. That's what makes this podcast go. We'll be back on Friday. We're just gonna preview a World Series because there's definitely no games between World Series games between now and then. So we will see you then. Thanks for listening.
- [51:40]
Andy McCullough
I was very wrong.
- [51:50]
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