The Roundtable | Players who have made a HOF push this season

Summary

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The Windup: The Roundtable | Players Who Have Made a HOF Push This Season

Episode Date: September 19, 2025
Hosts: Grant Brisbee & Sam Miller
Topic: Which MLB players improved their Hall of Fame chances the most this season? Grant and Sam each pick players who jumped to new tiers of HOF likelihood, ranging from longshots now on the radar to almost-certain future Hall of Famers.

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Episode Overview

This week, Grant Brisbee and Sam Miller break down which current MLB players, through their performance this season, have meaningfully shifted their Hall of Fame trajectories. Using Sam’s “percent likelihood” structure, the hosts identify players who made key jumps: from afterthought to possibility, fringe nominee to real candidate, and possible to likely Hall inductee. In classic Roundtable fashion, conversation ranges from analytical breakdowns to loving digressions on baseball history, odd careers, and hallmarks of Hall of Fame worthiness.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Premise: HOF Probability Tiers

[03:24]

• Sam introduces the tiered approach:
  1. Players moving from <1% to 1%+ chance
  2. Players from single-digit to double-digit %
  3. Players from under 50% to >50% (“bus test” territory)
  4. A player who now “passes the bus test” (if their career ended today, they'd likely be inducted)

Sam Miller: "The thing about the Hall of Fame, though, is you don't realize when someone crosses over from being likely to make the Hall of Fame to not likely... career arcs are long, not linear, and sometimes they surprise you." [03:43]

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2. From Longshot to Contender (<1% to >1%)

• Grant’s Pick: Nico Hoerner
  • Surging WAR (21 after being at 15 pre-season)
  • Hitting .300 with elite defense—could force his way into HOF conversations with a few more big years
  • Compared to Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich: players undervalued in their time for well-rounded play

Grant Brisbee: "How many more times does he have to hit .300 while fielding like this to make the Hall of Fame? Fewer seasons than you think, but it's still very hard to do..." [07:49]

Sam Miller: "He is the National League’s Stephen Kwan… does everything well… he is Lou Whitaker." [08:29]

• Discussion on how changing analytical values (contact rate, defensive WAR) could help Hoerner's case as the voting body evolves.

• Sam’s Pick: Byron Buxton

  • Finally healthy, still among MLB's fastest at age 31
  • WAR per game is elite (18th since 2000) but overall volume lags—he must stay healthy into his 30s
  • The “what if” candidate—if he strings together regular seasons, the HOF case grows

Sam Miller: "Byron Buxton is 31... this is his second longest season... but even still, in his half seasons here and there, he's basically been playing at a 6 or 7 WAR clip every year." [15:03]

• Conversation about how rare it is for ultra-athletic players to retain speed/impact into their late 30s.

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3. Now a Real Candidate (Single Digit % to Double Digits %)

• Grant’s Pick: Kevin Gausman
  • At 34, has ~28.4 career WAR. Needs longevity, but has been elite for six seasons now
  • Throws splitter compared to the unpredictability of a knuckleball
  • Pitchers can have late-career booms (Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson)

Grant Brisbee: "I think he is, as of right now, he's had half of a Hall of Fame career... in an era where starting pitching has been devalued, I'm gonna go Gausman." [21:20]

Sam Miller: (On older ace breakouts) "The chances of a pitcher having basically a whole hall of Fame career after he turns 30 are just so much higher than the chances of a hitter doing that..." [22:05]

• Sam’s Pick: Cody Bellinger
  • At 31 WAR, slightly ahead of peers like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Kyle Tucker, just two years older
  • Has MVP peak, Rookie HR record, credibility with three “name-brand” teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees)
  • Survived being the worst hitter in MLB (25–26), returned as a 4-5 win player; if he ages well, has the resume

Sam Miller: "Cody Bellinger is sort of sneaky close... he just has to age well. That's it. If he ages well, he'll get 60 WAR." [29:40]

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4. From Unlikely to Likely (>50%)—The “Bus Test”

• Grant’s Pick: Alex Bregman
  • New team, power numbers down, but steady accumulation and strong postseason visibility
  • 50.023% chance—right on the threshold as a now-likely Hall of Famer
  • Third basemen are historically underappreciated, but Bregman “charges the ball like nobody in big baseball” (Sam)

Grant Brisbee: "...Alex Bregman, new team... one more year of Alex Bregman-ish play. That is something that was on a Hall of Fame path earlier. I think now: 50.023% chance, that's a great one." [34:59]

Sam Miller: "Third basemen have always been really underappreciated... Bregman fits that. He needs the big stats... he's gonna be undervalued... we're gonna say, 'just vote for the guy.'" [35:29]

• Sam’s Pick: Christian Yelich
  • Has had three "phases": high batting average kid in Miami, MVP monster in Milwaukee, and now solid veteran on a winning Brewers club
  • After back surgery, seemed finished; instead, has revived, on track for .300/.300 career, needs 3–4 more solid years
  • Sam calls his career “textured,” with swings from stardom to near irrelevance and back
  • Grant pushes back, thinks Yelich is nearer 40% odds, using Bobby Abreu as a standard

Sam Miller: "...he had the Marlins phase... the two-year flash MVP phase... and now this really interesting third phase of his career. If he stays healthy, three more good years, he's right there." [39:26]

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5. Bus Test: They Clearly Crossed the Threshold This Year

• Grant’s Pick: Aroldis Chapman
  • Longevity, effectiveness at age 37, now stands out among contemporaries Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, giving him a distinct “era-defining” argument
  • Compared to Billy Wagner with more longevity
  • Sam pushes back: three relievers from one era might be tough for voters, but Chapman’s late peak could set him apart

Grant Brisby: "...crazy career longevity, but this year, probably his best year overall at age 37... you can make a case pretty easily for Chapman. I think you could before, but now it's bus test..." [43:51]

Sam Miller: "The era was so much defined by him, Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen... now Chapman gets to separate himself a little bit from Kenley." [44:32]

• Sam’s Pick: Jose Ramirez
  • Already near 60 WAR and a fixture at the top of MVP voting
  • No longer needing more "peak" years; even with a swift decline, his resume is strong enough
  • Overlooked third basemen/undervalued superstars theme continues

Sam Miller: "He’s the third best player of the era, right?...He’s the guy who’s been in the top five consistently, year after year after year." [47:37]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the evolving definition of HOF:
  "The most important thing that happens in a... baseball era is who wins the World Series. But the second most important is who makes the Hall of Fame... those are what kind of define an era." – Sam Miller [03:28]

• On Bobby Grich/Lou Whitaker as HOF standards:
  "We could do a whole podcast of it. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker. That's a podcast episode." – Grant Brisbee [13:50]

• Debating Gausman’s viability:
  "Kevin Gausman... his best pitch fluctuates from an 80-grade pitch to a 30-grade pitch, unaccountably and for long stretches... he is therefore just about the most terrifying, frustrating watch in baseball." – Sam Miller [23:26]

• On Bellinger’s career arc:
  "He was the worst hitter in baseball in his prime. He was lost, completely lost. And he came back from that and he is now a, you know, he's a different player now, but he is a consistently very good one." – Sam Miller [29:41]

• On Christian Yelich’s “textured” career:
  "He had the Marlins phase... the two-year flash MVP phase... and now this really interesting third phase of his career..." – Sam Miller [39:26]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:24 | Introduction of HOF probability tiers and explanation
• 07:49 | Grant’s candidate from <1% to >1%: Nico Hoerner
• 15:03 | Sam’s candidate for the same tier: Byron Buxton
• 21:09 | Grant’s candidate from single to double digit %: Kevin Gausman
• 25:54 | Sam’s candidate: Cody Bellinger
• 34:59 | Grant’s candidate from <50% to >50%: Alex Bregman
• 37:36 | Sam’s candidate: Christian Yelich
• 43:51 | Grant’s “bus test” pick: Aroldis Chapman
• 46:09 | Sam’s “bus test” pick: Jose Ramirez

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Style & Tone

• Conversational, dryly humorous, analytical
• Banter laden with deep baseball nerdery and clever comparisons
• Frequent detours into baseball history, player comps, and voting trends
• Light teasing and self-aware asides (e.g., "I'm not a ghoul, I'm a straight man" – Grant)
• Willing to argue about the value of careers like Bobby Grich and debate “texture” and “mouth feel” in HOF cases

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Takeaways

• The Hall of Fame conversation is constantly evolving—not just for numbers, but for how value is perceived across eras and by new voters.
• This season, players like Nico Hoerner and Byron Buxton may have changed their long-term legacy with under-the-radar value or resilience.
• Mid-career stars (Bellinger, Gausman) and revived veterans (Yelich, Chapman) highlight how one big year or stretch can substantially alter a player's HOF arc.
• The baseball nerd’s joy is mapping not only what makes a Hall of Famer, but watching the unexpected career renascences and slow, steady climbs that form HOF resumes.

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For fans and statheads intrigued by the nuances of Hall of Fame cases—and how quickly they can change—this episode offers a fun yet rigorous guide to whose stock is rising, and why.

Transcript

[Grant Brisby]

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[Grant Brisby]

This is the wind up. Welcome to episode number 177 of the Roundtable. I'm Grant Brisby. I'm here with Sam Miller, and yet again, only Sam Miller. Sam, how are you doing today?

[Sam Miller]

I'm good.

[Grant Brisby]

Sam, I'm gonna read a review that someone left on itunes. We always welcome reviews if they're good. If they're not, we don't welcome them. We have someone three days ago who left a review says, great work. Hey, that most recent podcast with Sam Grant was really fantastic. Someone should do an analysis if there was something particular that made it transcend the others. And that's a good question. Do you think there's something about the last couple podcasts we've done that have been different? Have we, like, jimmied with the format at all?

[Sam Miller]

I mean, look, I hope we're all just having fun here. I hope that this person was just having fun here. For the record, Andy is the heart and soul of this podcast and I miss him.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, great pivot. Great pivot. I for one, think Sam and I do a great job without Andy, and he just Brings it. What does he bring? He brings, like, bad vibes. I think Andy's like, our bad vibes host. What do you think?

[Sam Miller]

No, I definitely think he brings the tension. Yeah, I bring the manic.

[Grant Brisby]

He brings the tension.

[Sam Miller]

There's a. There's always threat with Andy around. There's always the threat.

[Grant Brisby]

Am I the confusion? Am I the straight man?

[Sam Miller]

You're the straight man.

[Grant Brisby]

The straight man.

[Sam Miller]

I'm sorry to say it's the first time in your life you've ever been the straight man. You. I know that you have never been the straight man in any room you've ever walked in, but in this. In this podcast, that's what you are.

[Grant Brisby]

All right, well, we'll turn to our topics now on baseball. Sam texted me a couple of topics about baseball, so let's talk about them. There's big news with Clayton Kershaw announcing his retirement. It would not be proper for us to talk, have a Clayton Kershaw episode without the man who wrote, literally wrote, the book on Clayton Kershaw. Like, you can say that about Andy. He wrote the book on Clayton Kershaw. So we'll talk Kershaw. We always do anyway. But we'll talk about him even more next time that when Andy's back. Sam, you came up with a high concept idea.

[Sam Miller]

It's not that.

[Grant Brisby]

And I, I. It's high. It's. I, I love it.

[Sam Miller]

I always like to keep track of everybody's hall of Fame kind of trajectories. The most important thing that happens in a. In a baseball era is who wins the World Series. But the second most important is the who makes the hall of Fame who. You know, who we look back on, especially now that records don't get broken. I think it used to be that records were a much bigger deal, but records don't get broken anymore. So you have your World Series champs, then you have your hall of Famers. Those are what kind of define an era. And then you got all the other stuff, the passing, the ephemeral, the fleeting. And the thing about the hall of Fame, though, is that you don't realize when someone crosses over from being likely to make the hall of Fame to being not likely to make the hall of Fame trajectory. You know, career arcs are long. Sometimes they're not linear, Sometimes they surprise you. Sometimes players retire, and you don't think they're a Hall of Famer. And then one day they are. But I always am really interested at the beginning of a season to think about who's kind of like edge cases. And who's really dependent on this year going. Well, for a long time, I thought, like the big story going into the season that, you know, no one talked about it, it wasn't front of mind. But like, Joe Maurer always seemed like, well, he's, you know, like his hall of Fame case, it could sway by a lot this year. He could either, you know, retire after this year, or he could have a good year and add four WAR and extend his career three years. And then Cole Hamel's felt that way for a. So I'm always thinking about those guys. But. But now at the end of the year, I like to think about what quietly changed in the hall of Fame pursuits of various players. So anyway, the concept here, the premise here is that I asked Grant to come to. To pick one player who this year increased his hall of Fame chances from decimal point less than 1% to whole number. You know, one or one or higher. Okay. And then one player who increased their chances from single digit chances to double digit chances, and then one player who flipped from unlikely less than 50 to likely more than 50, and then one person who didn't but now does pass the bus test, that being Grant's morbid standard, that if he gets hit by a bus today, he will make the hall of Fame. Now, I do think the problem with the bus test is that add layers of morbidness. If someone gets hit by a bus, there'd be an overwhelming groundswell of support for them. We need something. We need it to be like, if they. I don't even know. Like, how does someone leave the game without getting extra sympathy points left to.

[Grant Brisby]

Record their rock opera?

[Sam Miller]

There we go. Yeah. Just got bored. Well, the problem with just got bored is then people would hold it against them for just being bored. I don't know what you do.

[Grant Brisby]

Went on a mission from gad and I will just say it's Usenet that came up with this, not me. This is the old Internet. The old fun Internet came up with bus test, not me. I'm not a ghoul. I'm a straight man.

[Sam Miller]

You didn't invent it, but you introduced it to this podcast. All right, so that's what we got. We're going to name at most eight players in this podcast, perhaps fewer. We might have some overlap. We haven't discussed this.

[Grant Brisby]

Jim Kot.

[Sam Miller]

One time, Jim Kot emailed me, furious, because I had written an article about how it doesn't sound like much, but that no one was ever gonna hit 400 again, which seems uncontroversial. And then Jim Kot emailed me angrily pointing out that Tony Gwynn had hit.400 over 162 game stretch not 30 years ago, as though that was like devastating counter evidence. And then one day I really needed Jim Kot's contact information and I couldn't find the email. Somehow I deleted. Jim Cott emailed me hate mail, and I deleted it. Why would I have deleted it, Grant? It's crazy.

[Grant Brisby]

You know how long it takes him to type out an email when he's wearing his gold gloves? Come on.

[Sam Miller]

Come on, Sam. That's true. All right.

[Grant Brisby]

All right. So are we starting. We're starting with the, the points, you know, the, the 0.1 guys going to the 1.0 to 9.9 guys. Is that correct?

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah. So from. From a decimal to a. To a number. So go ahead and lead us off with something ridiculous.

[Grant Brisby]

I'm going to go with a gentleman who is above his peers in one respect. Consistently, year after year, a little bit closer to average, but still above average. Another year. Nico Horner. Nico Horner. Going from, you know, he's. He's had a few good years. He's had, you know, he's up to 21 war. Before the season, though, he was coming in at 15 war. And he's just looking like a shortstop, a guy, you know. Right. But he's hitting.300 this year. How many more times does he have to hit.300 while fielding like this to make the hall of Fame? Fewer seasons than you think, but it's still very hard to do, which is why you get in the hall of Fame. So I will throw out Nico Horner.

[Sam Miller]

I love Nico Horner. Nico Horner is absolutely one of my favorite players. He is the National League's Stephen Kwan and does everything well, you know, doesn't ever seem to make a mistake. And yes, is having a nice little, little bump, you know, like he's having his best offensive season. But, you know, his offensive seasons are always fine. He is like, they're fine. He's Lou Whitaker. Is that right? He's Lou Whitaker.

[Grant Brisby]

See, I think Lou Whitaker is a slam dunk hall of Famer.

[Sam Miller]

Right? Sure. Right, Exactly. Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

I'm offended that he's not in. So if he does this for another 10 years, then, yeah, I mean, that's a pretty good comp.

[Sam Miller]

Lou Whitaker developed his power late in his career, so by the time he retired, he had credible home run numbers. But at the time that he was Nico Horner's age, he was A very similar excellent defensive second baseman who would put up like hundred ish OPS plus, I'm guessing. I don't know where Lou Whitaker hit in the order. Wouldn't surprise me to find out he hit seventh during that period of his career. So he wasn't getting like hundred RBIs or anything like that. And Lou Whitaker is. Would probably win a poll of best position player not in the hall of Fame for non scandalous reasons. Right. I think at this point he's maybe, he's maybe arguably the, the consensus best that there is.

[Grant Brisby]

I would say another that who, who is up there with him in. You could describe almost the same way as Bobby Gritch.

[Sam Miller]

Well, Bobby, you can't describe Bobby Gritsch the same way. Bobby Gritch was a sluggo.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, but he was a defensive set. You know, he had. Defense was a big part of his game.

[Sam Miller]

Sure, good point. But Bobby Gritch, he hit Dinger Sluggo. Okay. I think that the thing about Horner that works in your favor. His favor is that you're always, well, you're betting on a lot of uncertainties with these things. How is the player going to age obviously, but also how is the voting body going to change what will be prioritized, what will be valued sometime in the future? And we just don't know that. I mean I think we've seen that like people 30 years ago would not have been able to anticipate like war at all. Like 30 years ago you wouldn't have even known war existed.

[Grant Brisby]

The war, war is always the same.

[Sam Miller]

So the question is, will the Nico Nico Horner skill set go up in value or perceived value or down in perceived value as time passes? And I think that the trajectory looks pretty promising for him in that regard.

[Grant Brisby]

You've got one guy, two guys, three guys hitting.300 this year. Right. You know, it's just what he's doing.

[Sam Miller]

It's.

[Grant Brisby]

You have to think of it mentally like a 330 season. 340, which is tough to do because you don't have batting average plus like you do OPS plus. But in general it's like he's. This is like a 330 season for him.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, that's a great point. Yeah. And he has maybe what you would, you would call like a lack of a signature skill, like a lack of a prestige skill, you know, and like, like he doesn't have a flashy single tool the way that a home run hitter or a high speed guy does. But the ability, but contact rate is becoming a signature skill because contact is so uncommon these days. And because we have not just strikeout totals, but we actually have contact rates and it comes with its own red or blue field on savant. I think a lot, there's a lot more awareness of the guys who are like the 92% contact guys. And so that also seems like something that maybe in 20 or 30 years will be more appreciated as a, as a flashy skill alongside power and speed and, you know, arm strength and stuff like that.

[Grant Brisby]

It's definitely something we're missing when we're watching the game. It's something like we can feel even if we're not looking at the numbers and the decline of batting average. When you're watching the game, you can feel who the high contact hitters are like, it's just, it's apparent to your darn eyeballs.

[Sam Miller]

I think that is a good pick because I do think Nico Horner was below 1% six months ago, and I do think that Nico Horner is above 1% now and probably below 10%.

[Grant Brisby]

Point of order. Lou Whitaker, 244 career home runs. Bobby Gritsch, 224.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, but I'm saying it's fine that you say that and that you point that out, but Bobby Grits led the league in home runs. He was also playing. He was 22 in the short season, strike shortened season. Strike shortened season led the league in slugging as well. He also was playing the first half of his career in a extremely power suppressed era and, and he was hitting homers relative to his league. He was a power hitter way earlier than Lou Whitaker was a power hitter. In fact, if you just look at Bobby Gritch in the Baltimore years, taking him through age 27, he had an OPS plus of 127. Lou Whitaker through age 27 had an OPS plus of 107. There's a big difference there. Bobby Gritsch was offensive. Also, for what it's worth, Bobby Gritch was doing the first half of his career as a shortstop. So even higher standard.

[Grant Brisby]

All right, I withdraw the point. Point to Sam. Point to Sam.

[Sam Miller]

Okay. I guess it wasn't the whole first start of his career. I, you know, I, I thought Bobby Rich played more shortstop than he did. So I'll take that back.

[Grant Brisby]

When you gave me this prompt, I was like, there's no way that this doesn't devolve into us talking about Bobby gritch for like 10 minutes.

[Sam Miller]

I did a. Yeah, because we could.

[Grant Brisby]

We could do a whole podcast of it.

[Sam Miller]

We could. Bobby Gritch and Lou Whitaker. That's a podcast Episode. All right, I'm going the exact opposite direction from Nico Horner. I'm picking Byron Buxton, 31 years old, and has qualified for the batting title this year for the second time. That's crazy. And the first time, he only did it by nine plate appearances. So he has played 117 games this year. That's two. You know, that's three quarters of a season only. And this is his second longest season. He has been, of course, devastatingly injured for much of his career. And you would think, well, there's no way. There's no way that guy is not gonna make the hall of Fame. There's no way. But let me tell you something. He's got 30 war, which is not. That's nothing. That's not enough to be on track at this age. But he's got 30 war. That's more than anybody thinks he has, given how often he plays. 30 war is halfway. If he manages to stay healthy through his 30s, which is, you know, I would say less than a 10%, but more than a 1% chance, he could very easily get to one to, you know, to 60 war, he is still the fastest player in the game or one of the three or four fastest players in the game. So the body still works when it's healthy. I just want to give you a little. A little fun fact. If you do war per game. For every player who's debuted since 2000, war per game, Byron Buxton is 18th, 18th best player in baseball. So that's despite having some years where he was so hurt, he was playing so sporadically that he wasn't really able to do much of all of anything at all. But even still, in his half seasons here and there, his quarter seasons, his half seasons, his 2 3rd seasons, he's basically been playing at a 6 or 7 war clip every year. And this year, he finally stayed healthy. This doesn't sound like a good thing for a Players hall of Fame case, but he has his first 75 RBI season. I mean, I don't know. I shouldn't have said that.

[Grant Brisby]

I wish I could do one of those whistles.

[Sam Miller]

He's getting. He's. He's sort of getting there. He also is, you know, he's got. He's got a signature skill. People will want their grandkids to remember what it was like to watch Byron Buxton, and there will be, I think, a lot of sympathy for him. If he manages to put together a, you know, a healthy 30s, a full career gets close, I think people will talk about him almost like not quite this, this is exaggerating it, but almost like the Jacob deGrom of hitters, you know, if only he could have been healthy for longer, if only he could have been healthy more consistently. But even still, when he was on the field, you watched. And so I think that less than 10%, but more than 1%.

[Grant Brisby]

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[Grant Brisby]

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[Sam Miller]

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[Grant Brisby]

What does his I am getting into the hall of Fame 30s career look like? Does he get older, bigger and stiffer, with more power and more ability to, you know, stay on the field because he's not diving for balls or what have you? Does he keep going with the live athletic stuff? And he ages like Kenny Lofton where he's playing center field, Steve finley when he's 39 or something.

[Sam Miller]

I mean, you wouldn't bet on it, but on him staying athletic that long. But you wouldn't have bet on it at 31. I mean, you would have thought by 31 he would have slowed down by now and he, you know, he hasn't. He's still, you know, he's fourth in the majors in sprint speed this year.

[Grant Brisby]

That's amazing.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, and that's. So that's 31. I mean at 40, is he still that fast? No, but at 31 he is. So why not at 34? There's no reason to, to like imagine a cliff. And that's again, that's with him fighting injuries the last nine years. If he somehow manages to put together like a nice six year run where he doesn't, you know, like take any pitches off the hand or doesn't run into any walls or, you know, just the soft tissue holds up. We haven't actually seen him play like in rhythm for a long period of time. So I don't know. I mean, I, I would bet more on the, the power. Well, okay, I'll say Carlos Beltran. He's. He's Carlos Beltran. Okay, that's so. So I bet more on the power side of it. But how did Carlos Beltran age? Not so great. It's fine. He's fine. Carlos Beltran aged fine is not a guy shouldn't have said Carlos Beltran's name 17 war after 31. So that would get bucks and up to 48. I don't think that gets him there. He'd need to age better than Carlos Beltran. But looking at it now, that comp doesn't make any sense anyway. Carlos Beltran was much slower at this age than Buxton was.

[Grant Brisby]

Okay, okay. I like, I like Buxton as a. Not going to happen. But you know, like that's what this category is. Like if you know and then you get to. And then if, like I think this is the three or four if category.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, yeah. There's no one like him. There's no one who's like him. So I don't know who ages. I can't think of a good speed guy comp for his 30s. I'm gonna keep thinking about it. All right, next category.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah. Sale Puig. No. All right. All right, next category is. Which one was this? This is from 1%, so 1.0% to 9.9% now they have bumped it up and they are in double digits. Do I have that correct?

[Sam Miller]

That's right. They are. Now someone that you're planning to vote for, I guess. Are you planning to vote for. No, I don't know how to put it.

[Grant Brisby]

So I've got a guy right now, he's almost straight at 30 WAR 28.4. If he has, if he doubles his career up, I think he gets in, but that's not. That's not like a 50, 50 chance because it's less likely that he's going to age well and double up his career. Kevin Gossman. Kevin Gossman. I think he is, as of right now, he's had half of a Hall of Fame career. He has been really good now for, let's see, six seasons. I think if he can get to 10 really good seasons, especially in an era where starting pitching has been devalued and harder to find. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go, Gossman.

[Sam Miller]

Wow. Wow. Wow. Okay.

[Grant Brisby]

See, I put research. I got like, PowerPoints up. I've got spreadsheets. Like, I did research on this baby.

[Sam Miller]

The chances of a pitcher having basically a whole hall of Fame career after he turns 30 are just so much higher than the chances of a hitter doing that. Like, we have seen. We have seen pitchers who didn't really do squat until they were like 28, 29, 30, 31. Like, maybe my all time favorite fun fact, maybe my all time favorite fun fact is that Jamie Moyer had more wins after 32, maybe 31, than Sandy Koufax had in his career. And Jamie Moira was basically not even in the majors at 30. Like, he had, like, he had been optioned, he had been demoted. He had nothing going in his career up to that point. What I'm saying is that Gosman's old. He's 34, and he doesn't have, like, big counting stats because until he was 28, he was pretty mediocre. But pitchers have big 30s. Zach Wheeler has had a big 30s, and you know, Randy Johnson had a big 30s. And like, there's a fair number of guys who didn't do much through 28, 29, 30, and then had big 30s. Gosman. I hate him. I hate, I hate him.

[Grant Brisby]

How can he hate? He's such a sweet fella. How can he hate Kevin Costman?

[Sam Miller]

Here's why I hate him. His. He has, his best pitch fluctuates from an 80 grade pitch to a 30 grade pitch unaccountably and for long stretches. And he is therefore just about the most terrifying, frustrating watch in baseball. When he's on, he just, like, he just, he's on fire right now. Like, it's on. It's an 80 pitch right now. And he just had shut out, I believe, complete game shutout. And he's had a good run of the last few weeks. And like, the Blue Jays had to be super excited because they have this, like, super weird Postseason rotation. And now all of a sudden, the ace is emerging just in time. But I've gone through, like, six different phases of thinking Gosman was good, and then looking up, and for like, you know, three to seven weeks, he's terrible. And it's. It's hard to watch.

[Grant Brisby]

Man, this actually segues well, because when you're talking about pitchers who just arrive or fully formed in their 30s or have a second, third stage of their career in their 30s, my brain immediately goes to pitchers like Phil Necro and Hoyt Wilhelm. Right. The knuckleballers. And so Hoyt Wilhelm was. Was a rookie when he was 29 years old, and he had a Hall of Fame career pitch for 21 years after that. Right. It's different from knuckleballers, but it's the same idea where 80% of the time, a guy like Wilhelm, Necro, they have the most unhittable pitch in the world. It's. It's like a quantum pitch. It's in superpositions. And when it comes to that other 20%, man, that thing's spinning a little bit too much, and it's just. You get to hit it over. So it's almost like Osman's splitter is akin to a knuckleball in a way.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, sure. Yeah, I'll take that. I mean, yeah, that's fair. Everybody hates knuckleballers.

[Grant Brisby]

Everyone loves them, but when they don't have it, boy, do they not have it. And they could not have it for a few outings in a row.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, Gosman, that's a bold pick. He's 112 and 112 pitcher right now, and he's 34 years old. And so I like the boldness there. You're anticipating five really good years, right.

[Grant Brisby]

To get him there. Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

And in the last five, he's had three years where he got Cy Young votes. Probably not. I'm guessing he will he get on a ballot. He could get on a ballot this year. Yeah, he might get on a ballot this year. So that would be four years with a nice little run of Cy Young finishes. Sure. Okay. Sure.

[Grant Brisby]

All right. Who you got?

[Sam Miller]

Zach Wheeler. By the way, I just wanted to double check this. Zach wheeler, from age 30 on has a 146 ERA plus, and until then, he was a league average pitcher. 100 ERA plus. So just average. Just. Just average. Just Jason Marquis, you know, just Woody Williams just going out there, giving his team a chance, but not much more, and then turns 30, says, you know, I'm getting old. I Should do something different with my life. And what he decided to do was be the best pitcher in the National League for six years.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, Zach Wheeler is the classic boy, if he could only put this together and then he does.

[Sam Miller]

Scott Borris gets paid by every generation. One Zach Wheeler happening. And then he can turn every 30 year old free agent pitcher that Scott Boris represents. After that he can just put a picture of Zach Wheeler in the front of the binder and say, you know, there's a lot of similarities between my league average, starting pitching free agent and Zach Wheeler at the same age and just leave the innuendo out there, you know.

[Grant Brisby]

Who are the guys you did this with before? Gil Mesh. Right, Gil Mesh. Darren Dreyford.

[Sam Miller]

Ali Perez was the classic example where he was comparing Ollie Perez's numbers through age 28 with Sandy Koufax's.

[Grant Brisby]

Oh, that's so good.

[Sam Miller]

And it was like, well, yeah, they are pretty much the same.

[Grant Brisby]

I guess when I'm bringing up Gilmesh and Darren Dreyford, those are the comps of, yeah, he hasn't been that good. But you, you got eyeballs, right? You got eyeballs. This guy can pitch, right? And with Zach Wheeler, yeah, those eyeballs were correct.

[Sam Miller]

There are thoughts I keep to myself and should never tell anyone, but I, I thought that, look, I mean, I, when Zach Wheeler was a free agent, I thought, here's Darren Drifert all over again. Yeah, okay, I, maybe I thought that. I'm not, I'm not admitting to it. I'm saying if I did it, if.

[Grant Brisby]

I did it, I can neither confirm nor deny that I've thought about Darren Drifer in the past year.

[Sam Miller]

My single digit to double digit pick. Well, before I tell you this, I gotta set it up a little. If I told you, Ronald, if I came back from the future and I said Ronald Acuna made the hall of Fame, that would seem normal. Yeah, like the normal superstar. If I came back from the future and I told you Kyle Tucker made the hall of Fame, that would seem normal, right?

[Grant Brisby]

Yep.

[Sam Miller]

I mean, maybe you wouldn't know. Like, maybe you'd say, oh, I, yeah, I thought he was like kind of a coin flip, but oh, the coin landed on heads. Fine. So ron Lacuna has 28 career war. Kyle Tucker's a year older, also has 28ish career war. So, you know, a little less likely, same same field if he ages a little better and then one year older than that, but with 31 career war is Cody Bellinger. Now those years matter. Cody Bellinger is Two years older than Acuna. He's, he's lost two years of earning power. His parents red shirted him twice and now he's got two fewer years of earning power. But he is in the same, you know, he's halfway there, roughly halfway through a career. A little more than halfway through a career. Not he's, he's not likely to make it, but he's, I think, I think he's higher than most people realize. And if you look at players who are his age and who have that war through that, that period of their life, it's about 20 ish. 20 ish, 25% ish. Make the hall of Fame. And Bellinger's got some things going for him. I think one is that at this point he is associated with three teams, the Dodgers, the Cubs and the Yankees. Has anybody pulled off a better team?

[Grant Brisby]

It's pretty good trifecta.

[Sam Miller]

It really is like he's, he only wears name brand. You know, he never gets caught wearing, wearing Target brand. It's only name brand for him. And he's got the MVP award when we can remember that he was otherworldly. He had the rookie home run record. So we can remember when he was a phenom and he is now this great comeback story because he didn't just, you know, like lose his momentum. He was the worst hitter in baseball for like a year and a half. The worst hitter. The worst hitter in baseball in his prime, in his peak, ages 25, 26, when he should have been following up the MVP award, he somehow became the worst player in baseball. He was lost, completely lost. And he came back from that and he is now a, you know, he's a different player now, but he is a consistently very good one. You know, he's basically like a four or five win player, but he does it with, you know, all around excellence, good baserunning. He might win his. He's, he's, he's in, I would say he's in the running for a Gold Glove this year. And you know, he's batting in the middle of a Yankees lineup that's about to go to the postseason where memories get made. So I think that Cody Bellinger is sort of sneaky close. Like he's a guy who has to age well. He has to age better than the normal player does. He has to have a better aging arc than the normal player does to make the hall of Fame. And so that's why he's not a great chance. But that's all he has to do. I mean, he just has to age well. That's it. If he ages well, he'll get 60. War.

[Grant Brisby]

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[Sam Miller]

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[Grant Brisby]

So what do you think gets him in? Would it be six more seasons like his current one where it's a 127 OPS plus or let's. I'm just throwing a number out. It's seven, eight, whatever. So that kind of standard, if he just keeps chugging along and compiling with these sorts of seasons, staying healthy, does that get him in? Or would you think that it would take at least one or two more like big monster seasons to get people thinking about him like a hall of famer?

[Sam Miller]

I don't think he needs to because he has, he has the peak. You know, people will talk about, you know, the early peak of Cody Bellinger. That's like a mystical phase of his career where he was doing incredible things. So he's already got that kind of like bold phase of his life. So I don't think he needs to. Especially because like a lot of his value really does come from all around skills, doing everything well and defense. I think he probably needs to keep hitting enough homers to get to like 400. I would say that as long as he can keep doing like 25ish homers a year for seven years, then that probably gets him there. And it seems like he's a pretty likable guy who always ends up on winning teams.

[Grant Brisby]

What he feels like to me, he feels like he came from. From utility infielder stock, you know, because he did.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, he did. That's his dad, you know. But it feels like when he was coming up, he had this, this ability to be so athletic. He could play center, he could be e first, he could run. He was just too big, you know, he's just too, too strong to, to. For anyone to say, well, this guy's clearly a middle infielder. So I think he brings that sort of mentality to the, to the table. Like he's just flexible. He does everything well when he's right, which is obviously the crux.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, yeah. Flip the switch from under 50 to over 50.

[Grant Brisby]

So now you've got for over 50%. You need longevity, you need skills that are better than your peers and likely to age well. I'm going Alex Bregman. I think Alex Bregman, new team. He started off a lot stronger than he finished. It's one more year of Alex Bregman ish play. And that is something that was on a Hall of Fame path earlier. I think now 50.023% chance, that's a great one.

[Sam Miller]

He is gonna be undervalued. Whatever happens from now on, he's gonna be undervalued in his hall of Fame. Like, I don't think that he's a guy who just needs to get to 54 or 58. Like, he probably needs to get to like 66 especially. Especially maybe because the trash can stuff. I was pitching the idea over the off season that if he just went to Colorado as a free agent, he'd make the hall of Fame. Like, he is the guy who was teetering, but the numbers are just like, kind of plain. Like he's third baseman. Have always been really underappreciated. If you look at hall of Fame voting, there are certain attributes that get overlooked. And one is good defensive third baseman just for ever and ever. There's like nine qualified good defensive third basemen who should be in the hall of Fame who aren't. And Bregman fits that. And he needs the big stats and I Thought that Boston, you know, especially because he started so hot, it seemed like maybe that was happening, that he was going to take advantage of, you know, like a good hitting environment. Not that he wasn't in one, but take advantage of a good hitting environment, a little bit of a reset, maybe have, like, that Adrian Beltre pillow contract Boston situation, and then like, become a slugger in his 30s. That was too optimistic, too fast. But he does keep plugging away. It is a great career. It's like he's unfortunately going to be one of those guys who retires with, like, three All Star game appearances. And people are going to say, well, if he's so great, why didn't anybody recognize it at the time? And we're going to say, because we were all idiots. We all. We always have been. And we'll cop to it and we'll say, just vote for the guy. He was really good and he charged the ball like nobody in big baseball.

[Grant Brisby]

Well, maybe. Maybe he does sign with the Rockies and he gets on that hall of Fame path. Like Chris Bryant.

[Sam Miller]

No.

[Grant Brisby]

Sorry, did I just drag the podcast down?

[Sam Miller]

That's brutal. Chris Bryant. Chris Bryant is in the Cody Bellinger cohort, by the way.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah. I mean, honestly, that is a fascinating. Like, what would it take to get Chris Bryant in the hall of Fame? That might be like a whole podcast episode.

[Sam Miller]

When he was 29, like Bellinger was, he had very similar stats. So. So it can go. It can go really wrong as well. Mine is Christian Yelich. I actually wrote a piece for ESPN in 2017 about how Christian Yelic had gone from not gonna make the hall of Fame to most likely gonna make the hall of fame in 400 plate appearances. That it was like the fastest anybody had ever made the hall of Fame because he basically, like, showed up for the second half of 2016 as the best hitter in baseball after having always been kind of like just a high average, pretty good guy. And then he had 400 plate appearances as an MVP. It raised his. It raised his career rank in OPS plus 200 spots. In 400 played appearances. He jumped 200 spots on the all time leaderboard for hitting for OPS plus. He went from like number 400 to like, number 200, something like that. And then he kept on hitting like an MVP for the rest of that year. And then it just disappeared. He just went back to, you know, he basically went back to old Christian Yelich. In some cases, he was below that standard. And the bad. The high batting average guy that was there in. In the early years, he was Gone. So now it was kind of just like generic corner outfielder Christian Yelich for a while, but he's picked it up. He's had, he's had I think three good seasons in a row. Last year he had back surgery and it seemed like, ah, bummer. Like, you know, he's gonna have back surgery. He won't come back the same. That quest is over. He's. He's clearly below the hall of Fame standards right now. And there's no reason to be optimistic about his mid and late 30s. But back surgery seems like it went well. He's been DHing, which takes a chunk out of his war earning potential. But he's hit really well. He's gonna have 30 homers again this year. He's now on pace to be probably a.300, 300 guy in his career. And it's good texture. Like, this guy's had like a bunch of different phases in his career. You know, he had the Marlins phase when he was like a fringe all star, but like really exciting, like fast, high batting average. You liked watching him young, put the ball in play, does everything aesthetically fun. And then he had the two year flash MVP phase where he was like literally the best hitter in baseball for two whole years. And then now he is. He sort of has lucked into being the best player on the best team in baseball despite not being nearly good enough to like even in the hall, like when if he were a Dodger, he would be like fifth on the call sheet. Even with his current numbers, he'd be fifth on the call sheet. But because he's a Brewer and they have this kind of really weird roster construction, he gets to be the guy that people mention first. He's the guy that like Andy like interviewed and led with him in his feature on why the how are the brewers are doing this. He's going to be the first face on the montage when the postseason starts and they're showing like the team stars. So it's this like really interesting third phase of his career that I think, you know, people are rooting for him and he's paying it off and he's getting to the point where he does have to stay healthy for another few years. He's only at 45 war. He needs three more good years. But where seven months ago you would have thought that's not happening. Not with the back surgery, not at this age, not with. But right now, three good years is like very much within his range.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah. See, I always, whenever you Mention an outfielder that's had a string of good years. My brain just always goes to Bobby Abreu. Like, I can't, because I think he should be in the hall of Fame. He, to me, was one of the better hitters of his era. But that to me feels like a standard because other people saw the same thing I saw and they don't agree with me that he is a Hall of Famer. So I feel like the bar is super high for someone like Yelich. So I would disagree 50% as of right now. I'd guess closer to 40. But now we're just splitting hairs. I'm more concerned by the fact that you said his, his hall of Fame case had texture. I feel like that's one step away from saying his stats have like, good mouth feel or they have umami. Right? Like, I just. How does stats have texture? But we're running out of time, so I guess we got respond to that. Please, Please, sir.

[Sam Miller]

My cat. So my cat likes to sit on different surfaces. You know, all cats. All cats. So he's constantly having like, new favorite places in the house. He's like rotating his favorite places in the house. And if you bring in a new texture, if you bring in like a, like a new nylon backpack, like, he is going to flip because he's on this new nylon backpack. Or if you get like a weighted blanket. My daughter got a weighted blanket. Like, oh, new texture. New texture. And he loved it. And so we've always talked about, like, well, what could we get him for his birthday? And one of the ideas is we could get him like a, like a blanket, sew him together, patch together a blanket with like six different textures on it. So he can, he can have one blanket, six textures. And that's how I feel. Some careers are okay. And like Dave Parker. Yeah, honestly, Dave Parker is a really good comp texture wise for Christian Yellich. Same sort of like, oh, wow, we'd given up on him and then he came back and had some like kind of quasi MVP level performances. Like, they weren't the high point of his career, but they added to the, to the texture. And I think that they got him in. And I. So anyway, I think that it's really important for Yelich that these, if he had had these years in, in like 2018, 2019, and then just had like the straight decline from there, I don't think it would have been as nice as the comeback, the extension, you know, the career revival, lengthening the years that we think fondly of him. Basically.

[Grant Brisby]

I'VE been reading a lot about AI chatbots and people getting in and talking with their AI chatbots so much that it breaks their scary stuff. I worry that the version of that for a cat is a six textured blanket. Like, I worry that he just doesn't leave. Just breaks his brain. Just gone forever.

[Sam Miller]

He's just like. He can't settle in. Maybe even.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, yeah. Just. Just doing loops. Just doing loops.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. Start smoking. Brain starts smoking quickly. The last one. I bet we have the same guy.

[Grant Brisby]

Really?

[Sam Miller]

Well, now I don't.

[Grant Brisby]

I'll say a roll this Chapman.

[Sam Miller]

Oh, that's not a bad pick. That's not a bad pick. That's not a bad pick.

[Grant Brisby]

So what you're going for is a guy who's had just like, crazy, crazy career longevity, but this year, probably his best year overall at age 37, you know, so, you know, relievers are a tricky case, but you can make a case pretty easily for Chapman. I think you could before, but now it's bus test. Now it's just like, what do you.

[Sam Miller]

Want more from this guy, huh? Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're probably right about it. A reliever is always do better than I think they're gonna do. For the most part, he feels like.

[Grant Brisby]

Billy Wagner with more longevity to me.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The era was so much defined by him, Kimbrell and Kenley Jansen coexisting at the same time. And it was like there was always this, like, what, are we gonna put three relievers in? Come on. Like, don't be stupid.

[Grant Brisby]

I think so.

[Sam Miller]

To me, that feels like a heavier lift. I'm not sure it's gonna get there. But now, given that, you know, Kimbrel's done, Kenley's compiling, he's around, but he's not. He's not. He's not making memories, right? He's. He's making a resume, but he's not making memories. In that sense. It gives. He and Chapman now both get to separate themselves from Kimbrell, and now Chapman gets to separate himself a little bit from Kenley. I just don't think all three would. Maybe they would, but it felt harder to imagine, like, there's not enough spots on the ballot. This is a problem. All the time, people talk about how they don't have enough spots. Are people really going to give three of their ten precious spots to, like, identical relievers? I didn't think they were going to. And so in that sense, having some distance, having the chance. The other thing is that like Chapman, I mean, you know, like if you're pitching like this, then you're pretty good chance you're still going to be pitching in four years. You know, he's going to have a long career. Probably after Craig Kimbrell's last, you know, positive memory.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, like ever. And now I, now you're the one that's being dark.

[Sam Miller]

Well, especially, I mean, you know, if he doesn't make the hall of Fame, then that would be one less positive.

[Grant Brisby]

Memory in the future for him.

[Sam Miller]

I got Jose Ramirez. It's not as inspired as yours.

[Grant Brisby]

See, I thought I, I overlooked him because I think he passed passes the bus test.

[Sam Miller]

He passes.

[Grant Brisby]

He passed.

[Sam Miller]

He passed. I don't think he was quite there yet. I think 50 war, you know, like if the equivalent of bus test in baseball, like Emotionless is like, well, you know, he just starts sucking, you know, he just becomes like, like no offense, like Carlos Barga, turn away from the podcast. But if he becomes Carlos Bar and like his replacement level for six more years, then would he make it? And I think that Ramirez, I figure when everybody says he's underrated, they must mean something. If he's going to make the hall of fame with 50 war, then why, what are we talking about? So now he's, now he's up near 60. He's got enough. He's going to finish third in MVP voting. Third or fourth in MVP voting again. And now I do think it's bus test. I think that even the replacement level 6 year wind down would not cost him a thing.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, I think that's about right. And you know, Carlos Barraga, I was thinking Edgardo Alfonso as just the guys who just, boy, they've got everything going for him and then poof, it's gone. If that happens to him, I think he's still got. And I know we say the most underrated player in baseball is a joke. He's been one of the best players in baseball. Maybe, you know, on the, I'm not going to say the best player, but the one who's been in the top five consistently year after year after year after year after year.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. I mean he's the third best player of the era, right?

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, yeah.

[Sam Miller]

I mean maybe, maybe it's Juan Soto is there, so maybe it's. But it's, it's Judge Otani. They're in like a whole other tier. And then the next best player in baseball is, is either Jose Ramirez or Juan Soto of that era. And so, yeah, I mean that guy's making the haul.

[Grant Brisby]

Bryce Harper.

[Sam Miller]

Bryce Harbor's not as good as Jose Ramirez. He hasn't been for the last. I mean, at no point. At no point that since Jose Ramirez got good has he been worse than Bryce Harper, I would say, for any significant stretch.

[Grant Brisby]

Okay, that's good. That's good, Sam. I like this exercise now. I want to go through and I want to, like, go through hall of Famers baseball reference pages and kind of like, divine where.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, I've had that thought. And I don't know. I don't know how to approach it, but it would be. Let's keep thinking about that because I.

[Grant Brisby]

Was on Phil Nekro's page the other day. Last night, I was on Phil Necro's baseball reference, but I was just looking at it. It's a fun PA look at. It's like, wow, okay, so you don't think you got anything, and then all of a sudden you do, and then just keeps going. Right? And good stuff. So that is the baseball roundtable for today. It was.

[Sam Miller]

It was a good one.

[Grant Brisby]

I enjoyed it. So thanks for listening. We will be back on Monday. Producer Brian, do we have. Do we have Andy back? I don't know what's going on at any point. I see now, in the chat, producer Brian put that we should mention the wild card at some point. He did that at the beginning of the podcast. No, no, we're not. We're not gonna be doing that today, Brian. We're just. We're talking about Bobby Gritch. And now y' all better. Better buckle up because we're talking Bobby Gritsch. All right, we'll be back on Monday. I believe Andy's gonna be back, so full round table. An actual round table, not just one very long Batman. Michael Keaton. Kim, basing your table.

[Sam Miller]

Probably some Kershaw gab.

[Grant Brisby]

Probably some Kershaw gab. Yeah. For the first time. All right, we'll be back. See you then. Thanks for listening.

[Sam Miller]

Everybody hates knuckleballers. I was very wrong.

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[Sam Miller]

Parle du francais hablas espanol parl italiano.

[Grant Brisby]

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