The Windup: The Roundtable | Players Who Have Made a HOF Push This Season

Episode Date: September 19, 2025
Hosts: Grant Brisbee & Sam Miller
Topic: Which MLB players improved their Hall of Fame chances the most this season? Grant and Sam each pick players who jumped to new tiers of HOF likelihood, ranging from longshots now on the radar to almost-certain future Hall of Famers.

Episode Overview

This week, Grant Brisbee and Sam Miller break down which current MLB players, through their performance this season, have meaningfully shifted their Hall of Fame trajectories. Using Sam’s “percent likelihood” structure, the hosts identify players who made key jumps: from afterthought to possibility, fringe nominee to real candidate, and possible to likely Hall inductee. In classic Roundtable fashion, conversation ranges from analytical breakdowns to loving digressions on baseball history, odd careers, and hallmarks of Hall of Fame worthiness.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Premise: HOF Probability Tiers

[03:24]

• Sam introduces the tiered approach:
  1. Players moving from <1% to 1%+ chance
  2. Players from single-digit to double-digit %
  3. Players from under 50% to >50% (“bus test” territory)
  4. A player who now “passes the bus test” (if their career ended today, they'd likely be inducted)

Sam Miller: "The thing about the Hall of Fame, though, is you don't realize when someone crosses over from being likely to make the Hall of Fame to not likely... career arcs are long, not linear, and sometimes they surprise you." [03:43]

2. From Longshot to Contender (<1% to >1%)

• Grant’s Pick: Nico Hoerner
  • Surging WAR (21 after being at 15 pre-season)
  • Hitting .300 with elite defense—could force his way into HOF conversations with a few more big years
  • Compared to Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich: players undervalued in their time for well-rounded play

Grant Brisbee: "How many more times does he have to hit .300 while fielding like this to make the Hall of Fame? Fewer seasons than you think, but it's still very hard to do..." [07:49]

Sam Miller: "He is the National League’s Stephen Kwan… does everything well… he is Lou Whitaker." [08:29]

• Discussion on how changing analytical values (contact rate, defensive WAR) could help Hoerner's case as the voting body evolves.

• Sam’s Pick: Byron Buxton

  • Finally healthy, still among MLB's fastest at age 31
  • WAR per game is elite (18th since 2000) but overall volume lags—he must stay healthy into his 30s
  • The “what if” candidate—if he strings together regular seasons, the HOF case grows

Sam Miller: "Byron Buxton is 31... this is his second longest season... but even still, in his half seasons here and there, he's basically been playing at a 6 or 7 WAR clip every year." [15:03]

• Conversation about how rare it is for ultra-athletic players to retain speed/impact into their late 30s.

3. Now a Real Candidate (Single Digit % to Double Digits %)

• Grant’s Pick: Kevin Gausman
  • At 34, has ~28.4 career WAR. Needs longevity, but has been elite for six seasons now
  • Throws splitter compared to the unpredictability of a knuckleball
  • Pitchers can have late-career booms (Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson)

Grant Brisbee: "I think he is, as of right now, he's had half of a Hall of Fame career... in an era where starting pitching has been devalued, I'm gonna go Gausman." [21:20]

Sam Miller: (On older ace breakouts) "The chances of a pitcher having basically a whole hall of Fame career after he turns 30 are just so much higher than the chances of a hitter doing that..." [22:05]

• Sam’s Pick: Cody Bellinger
  • At 31 WAR, slightly ahead of peers like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Kyle Tucker, just two years older
  • Has MVP peak, Rookie HR record, credibility with three “name-brand” teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees)
  • Survived being the worst hitter in MLB (25–26), returned as a 4-5 win player; if he ages well, has the resume

Sam Miller: "Cody Bellinger is sort of sneaky close... he just has to age well. That's it. If he ages well, he'll get 60 WAR." [29:40]

4. From Unlikely to Likely (>50%)—The “Bus Test”

• Grant’s Pick: Alex Bregman
  • New team, power numbers down, but steady accumulation and strong postseason visibility
  • 50.023% chance—right on the threshold as a now-likely Hall of Famer
  • Third basemen are historically underappreciated, but Bregman “charges the ball like nobody in big baseball” (Sam)

Grant Brisbee: "...Alex Bregman, new team... one more year of Alex Bregman-ish play. That is something that was on a Hall of Fame path earlier. I think now: 50.023% chance, that's a great one." [34:59]

Sam Miller: "Third basemen have always been really underappreciated... Bregman fits that. He needs the big stats... he's gonna be undervalued... we're gonna say, 'just vote for the guy.'" [35:29]

• Sam’s Pick: Christian Yelich
  • Has had three "phases": high batting average kid in Miami, MVP monster in Milwaukee, and now solid veteran on a winning Brewers club
  • After back surgery, seemed finished; instead, has revived, on track for .300/.300 career, needs 3–4 more solid years
  • Sam calls his career “textured,” with swings from stardom to near irrelevance and back
  • Grant pushes back, thinks Yelich is nearer 40% odds, using Bobby Abreu as a standard

Sam Miller: "...he had the Marlins phase... the two-year flash MVP phase... and now this really interesting third phase of his career. If he stays healthy, three more good years, he's right there." [39:26]

5. Bus Test: They Clearly Crossed the Threshold This Year

• Grant’s Pick: Aroldis Chapman
  • Longevity, effectiveness at age 37, now stands out among contemporaries Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, giving him a distinct “era-defining” argument
  • Compared to Billy Wagner with more longevity
  • Sam pushes back: three relievers from one era might be tough for voters, but Chapman’s late peak could set him apart

Grant Brisby: "...crazy career longevity, but this year, probably his best year overall at age 37... you can make a case pretty easily for Chapman. I think you could before, but now it's bus test..." [43:51]

Sam Miller: "The era was so much defined by him, Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen... now Chapman gets to separate himself a little bit from Kenley." [44:32]

• Sam’s Pick: Jose Ramirez
  • Already near 60 WAR and a fixture at the top of MVP voting
  • No longer needing more "peak" years; even with a swift decline, his resume is strong enough
  • Overlooked third basemen/undervalued superstars theme continues

Sam Miller: "He’s the third best player of the era, right?...He’s the guy who’s been in the top five consistently, year after year after year." [47:37]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the evolving definition of HOF:
  "The most important thing that happens in a... baseball era is who wins the World Series. But the second most important is who makes the Hall of Fame... those are what kind of define an era." – Sam Miller [03:28]

• On Bobby Grich/Lou Whitaker as HOF standards:
  "We could do a whole podcast of it. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker. That's a podcast episode." – Grant Brisbee [13:50]

• Debating Gausman’s viability:
  "Kevin Gausman... his best pitch fluctuates from an 80-grade pitch to a 30-grade pitch, unaccountably and for long stretches... he is therefore just about the most terrifying, frustrating watch in baseball." – Sam Miller [23:26]

• On Bellinger’s career arc:
  "He was the worst hitter in baseball in his prime. He was lost, completely lost. And he came back from that and he is now a, you know, he's a different player now, but he is a consistently very good one." – Sam Miller [29:41]

• On Christian Yelich’s “textured” career:
  "He had the Marlins phase... the two-year flash MVP phase... and now this really interesting third phase of his career..." – Sam Miller [39:26]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:24 | Introduction of HOF probability tiers and explanation
• 07:49 | Grant’s candidate from <1% to >1%: Nico Hoerner
• 15:03 | Sam’s candidate for the same tier: Byron Buxton
• 21:09 | Grant’s candidate from single to double digit %: Kevin Gausman
• 25:54 | Sam’s candidate: Cody Bellinger
• 34:59 | Grant’s candidate from <50% to >50%: Alex Bregman
• 37:36 | Sam’s candidate: Christian Yelich
• 43:51 | Grant’s “bus test” pick: Aroldis Chapman
• 46:09 | Sam’s “bus test” pick: Jose Ramirez

Style & Tone

• Conversational, dryly humorous, analytical
• Banter laden with deep baseball nerdery and clever comparisons
• Frequent detours into baseball history, player comps, and voting trends
• Light teasing and self-aware asides (e.g., "I'm not a ghoul, I'm a straight man" – Grant)
• Willing to argue about the value of careers like Bobby Grich and debate “texture” and “mouth feel” in HOF cases

Takeaways

• The Hall of Fame conversation is constantly evolving—not just for numbers, but for how value is perceived across eras and by new voters.
• This season, players like Nico Hoerner and Byron Buxton may have changed their long-term legacy with under-the-radar value or resilience.
• Mid-career stars (Bellinger, Gausman) and revived veterans (Yelich, Chapman) highlight how one big year or stretch can substantially alter a player's HOF arc.
• The baseball nerd’s joy is mapping not only what makes a Hall of Famer, but watching the unexpected career renascences and slow, steady climbs that form HOF resumes.

For fans and statheads intrigued by the nuances of Hall of Fame cases—and how quickly they can change—this episode offers a fun yet rigorous guide to whose stock is rising, and why.