The Roundtable | Time for a September check-in on the Yankees and Dodgers

Summary

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The Windup: A Show About Baseball

The Roundtable | Time for a September Check-in on the Yankees and Dodgers

Episode 174 | September 8, 2025
Hosted By: Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, Sam Miller (The Athletic)

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Episode Overview

This Roundtable episode features writers Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, and Sam Miller as they dive into a September reality check on two of MLB’s premier franchises: the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers. With playoff races heating up and each team's vulnerabilities making headlines, the hosts dissect recent developments, injury dramas, bullpen collapses, aging cores, trade-deadline regrets, and the ever-elusive “juice” factor that makes contenders tick. The episode is equal parts humor, baseball nerdery, well-informed punditry, and existential ponderings about the state of the Dodgers and Yankees.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Yankees' Outlook and the Aaron Judge Dilemma

[03:14 – 16:44]

• Current Standings & Recent Surge

• Yankees are two games back of the Blue Jays, after series wins against the Jays and Astros.
• Still live contenders for both the AL East and a championship, but not without drama.

• Aaron Judge’s Arm Injury & Public Kayfabe

• Judge is playing through a flexor sprain in his throwing elbow, visibly limiting his outfield arm strength.

• The Yankees return him to the outfield so both Judge and Stanton can hit, but only one can DH:

  “You can't have two guys at DH. It’s simply not allowed.” – Andy [03:33]

• Notable Play:
  In a crucial moment, Judge fielded a ball but made a weak throw, exposing his injury and sparking questions.

• The Yankees’ public posture is denial—Judge claims, “I wouldn’t be out there if I couldn’t make that throw,” but visibly can’t. Boone is defensive with the media, prompting frustration from reporters and fans about the refusal to acknowledge what’s obvious.

• Andy:

  “I just dislike the denial of reality … No one’s offended that he can’t throw. Everyone gets what’s going on.” [05:25]

• Broader Context: Baseball’s Secrecy/Denial Culture

• Sam recalls similar athlete “no comment” strategies (“Ballplayers are super weird about giving anything away...”) and discusses the strategic edge (or lack thereof) in hiding injuries [06:57].

• References to Jeff Bagwell’s arm problems and John Lester’s famous inability to throw to first [09:42, 14:53].

• The group agrees, Judge’s arm may become the ultimate “Chekhov’s gun” in October: will it matter in a pivotal moment?

• Sam:

  “There is no way Aaron Judge’s arm is not Chekhov’s gun in the postseason... and we're going to see that highlight hundreds of times.” [13:27]

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2. Dodgers in a Funk: No Juice, Aging Roster, and Roster Flaws

[19:15 – 38:15]

• Recent Performance & “Juice” Check

• Dodgers are flailing: a 1-5 road trip, bullpen collapses, and a team-leading MVP candidate (Shohei Ohtani) can’t fix the malaise alone.

• Comedic highlight:

  “We had someone in the comments say, stop talking about the Dodgers. And to which I respond, no, they literally have Shohei Ohtani.” – Grant [19:17]

• Andy’s take:

  “I don’t think they have the juice.” [19:29]

• “Juice” — the intangible energy or spark of contending ballclubs — is notably lacking.

• Where Have the Dodgers Underperformed?

• Corner Outfield Woes: Conforto and Teoscar Hernández have both underwhelmed offensively and defensively.

• Bullpen Decline: Relievers who were lights out in 2024 have cratered (notably Kirby Yates, Trinen, Tanner Scott).

• Rotation Injuries/Depth Issues: Plans for a dominant rotation have fallen apart as only Yamamoto remains unscathed.

• Aging Core: Dodgers are the oldest team in baseball; Mookie Betts’ declining speed is cited as a symptom [26:40].

  • Andy:

    “They're old. They're the oldest team in the sport. That's showing up in ways that...You know, Mookie Betts is slower than Will Smith?” [26:51]

• Failed “Dodger Sauce” Reclamation Projects

• Brisbee and Andy riff on the organization’s reputation for turning cast-offs into stars, wondering if the rest of the league has caught up.

  • Grant:

    “I don’t know why the Dodgers couldn’t make Michael Conforto specifically into a good player, but the idea is, they're going to rub some Dodger sauce over them and make them better ... If that has stopped, or if the league has caught on to what’s in that Dodger sauce … That’s a big difference.” [29:43]

• Lack of Internal Pipeline/Young Energizers

• Only one homegrown star has emerged in recent years (Will Smith).
• Dodgers' perennial success means no high draft picks, leading to a temporary homegrown talent gap.

• Pundit Brain: Sleepwalking & Playoff Switch Hypothesis

• Sam floats the idea that the Dodgers' regular season aimlessness stems from being a franchise that defines itself by October, making it hard to get “up” for mundane games. The risk: the switch might not actually flip come playoff time [33:51].

  • Sam:

    “It’s conceivable that they were sleepwalking through the first five months and expecting to flip the switch. And when they flipped the switch and no lights came on, they panicked.” [33:51]

• Grant notes the Dodgers could have benefited from a first-round bye as an old team, but now likely face an extra postseason series [36:57].

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3. Spending, Roster Construction, and “O w, now what?”

[39:19 – 43:47]

• The hosts debate whether the Dodgers’ star-studded, max-out-every-roster-spot approach will influence other owners.

• Grant says:

  “If I’m an owner...I am just gonna look at all 26 spots and say, can I do better than this?” [40:07]

• Andy and Sam suspect the Dodgers’ lack of playoff dominance despite big spending will reinforce cost-cutting instincts around baseball, not all-in splurges.

  • Sam:

    “I think that probably to the degree that any message will be imprinted on the minds of owners, it will be that baseball players are unreliable. Just look at the 2025 Dodgers.” [43:09]

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4. Baseball Fan Ethics: Foul Ball Drama

[43:47 – 48:38]

• Brief detour: a viral moment featuring a Phillies fan “stealing” a foul ball.
• All three hosts are adamant:

  “Leave this lady alone.” – Andy [43:56]

• The group explores the unwritten rules and public shaming surrounding foul balls, referencing famous incidents (Astros lady, Steve Bartman). They agree: don’t do it, but also, let’s not destroy people's lives over dumb stadium moments.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Denials of Obvious Injury:

  • Andy: “I just dislike the denial of reality… Everyone understands… We need to get both these guys in the lineup. It’s less of a liability; like, Stanton or Judge’s arm is less of a liability than Stanton’s legs.” [05:25]

• On Chekhov’s Gun:

  • Sam: “The one thing we can probably agree on is that there is no way that Aaron Judge’s arm is not Chekhov’s gun in the postseason… and we're going to see that highlight hundreds of times…” [13:27]

• On Dodgers' Lack of “Juice”:

  • Andy: “I’m gonna go on the record. I don’t think they have the juice.” [19:29]
  • Sam: “They got a juice problem.” [19:31]

• On Outfield Failures:

  • Grant: “It’s Michael Conforto and the bullpen. And Michael Conforto is… a catch-all for just their general outfield malaise.” [23:32]

• On Pundit Brain and the Dodgers’ Sleepwalk:

  • Sam: “It is a plausible hypothesis… that they were sleepwalking through the first five months and expecting to flip the switch. And when they flipped the switch and no lights came on, they panicked.” [33:51]

• On Roster Construction and Owner Lessons:

  • Sam: “Players that make more money tend to outperform players who don’t make money. But I think that probably to the degree that any message will be imprinted on the minds of owners, it will be that baseball players are unreliable. Just look at the 2025 Dodgers.” [43:09]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Judge’s Arm & Yankees Woes – [03:14–16:44]
• Dodgers’ Juice Crisis & Recent Stumbles – [19:15–26:51]
• Roster Holes & Analytical Breakdown – [22:33–30:22]
• Organizational Philosophy & Aging Problem – [26:40–31:53]
• Is It a Dodgers Sleepwalk Or Something Deeper? – [33:51–38:15]
• Owner Spending Debate – [39:19–43:47]
• Foul Ball Ethics & Fan Culture – [43:47–48:38]

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains a freewheeling, insightful, tongue-in-cheek style. The hosts blend deep analytical knowledge with sharp one-liners, self-deprecating asides, baseball history, and open frustration with the sport’s silliest traditions and dramas.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode is a must-listen for fans who want smart, wry takes on whether the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ vulnerabilities will derail juggernaut expectations. You’ll come away understanding why Judge’s right arm will be a decisive September story, why the Dodgers’ seemingly perfect roster is letting them down, and why the future of big spending in baseball may be on shakier ground than ever — all delivered with humor, nuance, and genuine affection for the big weird game.

Transcript

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[Andy]

I'm good.

[Grant Brisby]

Sam, how are you doing?

[Sam Miller]

I'm good. It's good. It was a good weekend.

[Andy]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

I got no bits. I'm done with the bits. And people keep like asking about the bits. The bits are done. I think Sam is partly responsible for not being funny or interesting after a certain point. But, you know, we'll just go with what we have. We'll give 110%.

[Andy]

They're referring now to when a show becomes a little stale as the Cheese on Sandwich episode.

[Grant Brisby]

Fair enough.

[Andy]

No longer can you jump the shark. You can put cheese on a sandwich.

[Grant Brisby]

Fair enough.

[Andy]

Not even put cheese on a sandwich, but debate cheese on a sandwich as if this was a topic that would have, you know, a wide ranging array of opinions.

[Grant Brisby]

It is in my house. Okay? I just, I. Recency bias. Proximity bias. Whatever. All right, we got baseball to talk about.

[Andy]

I just love Grant. Grant's just like, what's the last thing I did? Hey, Sam, tie your shoes.

[Grant Brisby]

But that's the whole point.

[Andy]

That's the whole point.

[Grant Brisby]

Of the band is that Sam's going to be like, actually, you know, one time I was tying my shoes in the Great Salt Lake, and then, you know, I was floating because of the salinity. Okay. All right, Andy, you got thoughts about Aaron Judge and you were fired. Like, first off, you were fired up about this.

[Andy]

I'm going to stop posting in the Google Doc.

[Grant Brisby]

No, no, no.

[Andy]

You were fired up reading my unvarnished thoughts in the Google Doc.

[Grant Brisby]

Fired up. And then we get here. It's like, actually, I don't really care about that anymore, so. No, no, I'm making you fired up. This is the biggest thing to ever happen in baseball. Andy, go.

[Andy]

The Yankees at the top, we shall say, are, I believe, two back of the Blue Jays right now. They took a series from them this past weekend. They took a series from the Astros. They did the thing that kind of fans had correctly been harping on them on, which was like, beat actual decent teams. They beat two teams who are leading their division. And so they are a very live option to win the east and still win the World Series, which would be very amusing. They have some issues, though. One of them is that Aaron Judge is dealing with a flexor sprain in his right elbow. He's been dealing with it for a while, but he's recently returned to the field. Part of the problem with this injury is that he really can't throw the baseball with the normal steam that he's able to produce. He's a good fielder. He's got a good arm. He is, you know, it's part of the reason why he is, you know, outside of Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball. There's the Bonds thing at the place. But he's also, like, a good fielder, right? And they have returned him to the outfield in part because Giancarlo Stanton really cannot play the outfield because of the condition of his legs right now. So they can't. You can't have two guys at dh. It's simply not allowed. Maybe, you know, if banana ball ever takes over, they'll allow that to happen. But as currently constructed, you only get one designated hitter. And so Friday night, there was a situation against the Blue Jays where a ball was hit to Aaron Judge. There was a single. There was a runner, Dalton Varshow, who was rounding third base, but had not even, like, gotten too far past third base. I believe he was, like, at third base as Judge came up to throw. And rather than do what he assuredly would have done if he was healthy, he Threw, which would be thrown to the plate. He threw to Jazz Chisholm who, you know, caught the ball and there was no play at the plate because it's kind of hard to, you know, make a play in that way. And then afterwards there was basically a bit of kayfabe on the marks in the public and the press about the idea of whether or not Judge could throw. Judge was asked about it and basically said I wouldn't be out there if I couldn't make that throw. Well, all right. That's kind of a non answer because he didn't make the throw. Aaron Boone, you know, is kind of defensive and frustrated about the whole thing. I think he's in kind of a crummy spot and that he is just sort of like kind of not able to. I just don't know. I just dislike the denial of reality, if that makes sense. Like no one's offended that like he can't throw. Everyone understand every rational person watching this gets what's going on, which is like we need to get both these guys in the lineup, Stanton and Judge. It's less of a liability, like Stan or Judge's arm is less of a liability than Stanton's legs, you know, and it's also like less of a long term worry. Like you could lose Stanton for good and you kind of need him for October because he's such a good hitter. And I just don't. I guess it's just like sometimes the athlete mindset of just refusing to admit that something is wrong, like I respect it in some ways, but then when it gets defensive about it, it's just like, well, this is reality, man. Just say what it is. And they're sort of, you know, pretending that this is totally normal, what's going on, rather than just sort of being open about it. And that sort of, that grinded my gears a little bit. Especially on Saturday morning before another game when Aaron Boone sort of, you know, dropped. He explained to the reporters, you know, quote, like, if you've been paying attention, we've been working on, you know, creative cuts. And then like several members of the Yankees beat flashed to tweets they had from a month ago diagramming the exact play that you know, they were going to be working on that they'd been taking pictures of making clear. Like they have been paying attention, like they're trying to explain to the public what's going on. So anyway, that's the situation with judges arm. Yankees are going to win it all.

[Sam Miller]

If you wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt And I don't even know if this does give them benefit of the doubt, but ballplayers are super weird about giving anything away, about giving information away, even information that is like, clearly in the public domain that everyone already knows. Logan Webb was interviewed mid game during the Fox game of the week this weekend. And he was talking about how it's been great having Justin Verlander on the team because he's really like elevated his preparation for games. And the follow. One of the follow ups was like, so you're a great pitcher when you're facing hitters. Like, what do you do to prepare? And Logan Webb gets like super uncomfortable and he's like blushing in the ears and he's like, I don't know if I want to give that information away. And it's like, what is the scenario where you think saying I look at scouting reports is going to like give hitters an advantage? So they, they do often do that. I think that it's. So the throw that he made to Jazz Chisholm was. I mean, it barely even made it to Jazz Chisholm. And so it looked really, really, really weak. Like it didn't just look like he's not willing to make the throw, but it looked like maybe he can't even make any throws. I think that he can probably make the throw. On Sunday, he played right field again. He had two balls that were hit off the wall. Runner went for two and one of them he threw like a two hopper, a really weak two hopper to second base on a pretty close play. And the other one, he threw it on the fly. It was like a, a legit throw on the fly from the corner to second base. I'm not saying that it was the greatest throw of all time or anything like that, but it was. Clearly he has two tiers of throw that he's capable of. I don't know that he can throw 196 right now, but he's got more in his arm than that throw to Jazz Chisholm. And he's clearly making some choices about how he deploys it. So I don't think there's any reason to be secretive. I don't think he's getting some edge by denying like what he's going through. But I think probably in their mind they're thinking, well, we don't want to give them too much information on what's going on in Judge's head. We want them to maybe think that he can make the throw if he needs to. Maybe that slows them down a little. It is annoying. It is annoying. When I like you, Andy, I'm pretty impatient with people who will not tell the truth to the public. It just irritates me when they think we're dumb. So that always bothers me. And, yeah, I think I'm probably where you are. I think that I like managers who. Managers and players. I like the ones who lean into the. This game's hard, and I'm not. Because of that. I'm not going to deny failure. I'm not going to deny challenges. I'm not going to deny things that we did wrong, mistakes we made, things we're going through. It's hard, and that's my main message. I like those guys.

[Grant Brisby]

Can you guys think of another example of this between Jeff Bagwell and now? Because I'm going back to Jeff Bagwell, and it's like, I feel like an old man doing that. But Jeff Bagwell had. In the later stages of his career, he had problems with his arm. I believe it's his arm might have been his shoulder, but he couldn't throw. Like, just flat out. He was a first baseman. Couldn't throw. There was no DH in the National League. Astros in the National League at the time. Just couldn't throw. And everyone knew it. So what did that do to the Astros? Well, they got to keep Jeff Bagwell in the lineup in, like, every third game or something. You would notice. It's sort of like John Lester of his pickoff moves. Like, when you notice, you really notice, but most of the time, you just don't notice. And so when you're talking about an arm right now, the lowest arm score when they convert it into runs is negative seven by Cedric Mullins, the weakest arm as far as miles per hour. It's actually the guy who scored on the play that. That Aaron Judge did make Dalton Varsho. His average throw is 73 miles per hour. So Andy put in the chat that one of Aaron Judge's supposedly strong throws was 71 miles per hour. So that basically means that he's got. When he ramps up, he's got the weakest arm in. In baseball. How often are we going to notice?

[Andy]

Not exactly. I mean, what Sam was pointing out is that he's got two gears, right? And like. And Judge. Judge, again, you know, he Normally sits about 90 out there. Like, he's a. You know, he's a big fellow, long levers. He can really. He's a good thrower.

[Grant Brisby]

I guess my general point is there is no scenario to where anyone is saying, listen, we got to get Judge off the field.

[Andy]

Field.

[Grant Brisby]

You know what I mean? So what are you doing? Just inventing this alternate reality?

[Andy]

I think elite athletes, you know, bend reality to their will. You know, they are the few people in the sort of, you know, world who, you know, at least in, like, in athletic context, can just basically make stuff be because they believe it. And sometimes that involves, you know, self deception or just sort of a refusal to admit, you know, when things are changing or when they are compromised. You know, Like, I remember, you know, in. In 2018, you know, covering the Dodgers. That was really when Clayton Kershaw's fastball velocity, you know, really went. It's. It had been like 92, 93. And that year, it got 89, 90, 91. And that was from. For really his peak, he was like 50 to 60% fastball, 30% slider. And in 2018 was when it started to become about, you know, 45 or whatever, like, it became kind of an even split. He. All of a sudden, he was throwing more sliders, right? And if you say to him, like, hey, why are you throwing more sliders? He's like, I'm not throwing more sliders. Like, but. But you are. Like, you know, and you'd read them the numbers and be like, yeah, I don't know about that. I'm not throwing more sliders. And then, like, you know, as time goes on and you, like, look back at the, you know, you talk about these conversations, he'll be like, why would I tell the other team what I'm doing? You know, and there is some strategic value there, right? Like, if. Look, if. If the other team is going to be so lazy as to not read a scouting report, I don't know on what planet they would be subscribed to the Los Angeles Times and reading my coverage. But I. I understand.

[Sam Miller]

Behind a paywall, even.

[Andy]

Yeah, right, right. They're like, we're paying, you know, 9.99amonth to read Andy. Like, I get the general idea with this. It's like Judge is doing something admirable, right? Like, he's going out there physically compromised because it's best for the team. And that's a way to get his bat and Stanton's bat in the lineup, right? And rather than just like, leaning into, like, yeah, dude, I'm banged up. I can't throw. But watch out, I might be able to uncork one. You know, like, they're sort of just pretending that it's like, no, everything's fine. Like, everything's totally normal. What's happening here. And that's just the denial of reality just gets to me. I don't know.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. The message is so. The what you just said is so simple, so easy to say. It feels like the fact that they won't say that embeds within it just some irritation. Like it feels like irritation coming out. So there's that just a subtext. Like, it feels like there's subtext. The subtext is annoying. And it, you know, probably especially for a beat writer, longtime beat writer, no longer a beat writer national guy now, but for a long time beat writer like Andy. It's very. It's very annoying. It's very tedious. Especially because you've probably been through many conversations where there have been like seven follow ups in a situation like this, and they all just keep coming back to the same non denial denial. The one thing we can probably agree on is that there is no way that Aaron Judge's arm is not Chekhov's gun in the postseason. Right. Like, some point it all comes down to whether he can throw. And he's either gonna stun us and he's gonna have one last throw in him, maybe the arm actually falling off and. And like tomahawking toward the infield behind the ball, or he's not. And we're going to see that highlight hundreds of times in our lives as the winning run scores while Aaron Judge, you know, throws like a ball that's like three times as long as the Ibanez throw.

[Grant Brisby]

That's bleak.

[Sam Miller]

With all his might, I'm trying to.

[Grant Brisby]

Think, has there been a Chekhov's gun in the postseason like that? And I mean, you brought up Kershaw.

[Sam Miller]

That's like John Lester's inability to throw to first felt like the Chekhov's gun in Major league baseball for like four years. And it never went off. He managed to somehow pitch. We discovered it the same day.

[Andy]

Right.

[Sam Miller]

We discovered it when it was going off. Right.

[Andy]

But then it.

[Grant Brisby]

But then it.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, exactly. And then he just kept pitching and, you know, somehow they weren't able to take advantage of that. I think Aaron Judge probably gets. Well, look, the third base and first base coach, like half their job is knowing how good the arms in the outfield are. So he's not going to fool anybody. He's not going to, like, there's really no edge to denying reality here. He should probably just play the game.

[Grant Brisby]

Should he take one for the team and move to first?

[Sam Miller]

I mean, I was thinking about that.

[Grant Brisby]

Ben Rice could probably play a mean right field oh, man.

[Andy]

Is there a. You know, if you could really do a Chekhov's gun of this postseason, there would somehow be a way where there's a runner at second, Aaron Judge is in right field, and Tanner Scott is pitching and gives up a single to right. And it's up to Judge to save Scott to say, you know, to. To be like, what the looming problem heading into October is for the two premiere franchises.

[Grant Brisby]

Oh, man. I should point out, just for clarification, Chekhov's gun. It's a reference to season two, episode one of the original Star Trek series. Watch it. You can't miss it. Anyways, I think the whole thing is silly, and I think they've made it silly, sillier, for no reason, right? And part of me, when I. When I read Aaron Boone's quotes, that's like, what the money is for. It keeps ringing in my head like he's doing the Roger Goodell job as far as, like, he's taking the slings and arrow. He's absorbing all this, and that's what he feels like his main job is. And maybe it is at the same time, I don't understand who thought this was helping anyone. Unless there's a rope, a dope. If there's a rope, a dope in.

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[Andy]

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[Grant Brisby]

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[Grant Brisby]

Play where he uncorks like an actual, you know, 80 mile, 90 mile per hour throw to second base to get someone. That would be very funny if that were the result of check. That would be funny.

[Sam Miller]

I just think if I were a manager and my job were to protect my players, I would see the. The job to be conveying to the public how hard it is. That would be. That would be my goal. It wouldn't be to convey to the public that my team is all made out of titanium and can do no wrong. And if you think they did something wrong, it's your eyes that are a problem. It would be conveying that it's a hard game and bodies break and some days are different than other days, and life is about living with regrets. Like, those are the things I would be trying to convey in my meetings every day.

[Andy]

The team is just so downtrodden, and they're like, you know, the manager keeps talking about this concept called, like, existent something with dread. I don't know.

[Sam Miller]

This is why I got fired as Jimmy Carter's speechwriter in the 70s.

[Grant Brisby]

Just a constant focus on malaise.

[Andy]

Hey, speaking of Malays, can we talk about the Dodgers?

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, good segue. Good segue. We had. Wait real quick. We had someone in the comments say, stop talking about the Dodgers. And to which I respond, no, they literally have Shohei Ohtani. All right, go, Andy.

[Andy]

I'm gonna go on the record. I don't think they have the juice.

[Sam Miller]

Gosh, they got a juice problem.

[Grant Brisby]

Early juice call.

[Andy]

No, I. I mean, they are like. So this weekend they went 1 and 5 on this road trip against, you know, the Pirates and the Orioles. And it's not 1971. Those are two last place teams. They just kind of like, played poorly against Pittsburgh. And then Tanner Scott gets walked off. You know, he was, like, pitching perfectly well. Like his stuff looked good. And then he just gives up a homer to Samuel basallo. They lose 2 to 1 on Friday night. Scott afterwards is like, baseball hates me right now. Which is not what you want your $72 million reliever to be talking about heading into October. The next night, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches the game of his life. No hitter going into the eighth, gets the first out, gets the second out. By the way, no hitter pitching for the Dodgers, which, as you guys will know, it's kind of hard to throw a no hitter. In general, it's damn near impossible to throw one for the Dodgers, who have Always been very aggressive about, like, trying to avoid, you know, a guy getting to 130 pitches in the 8th inning or something like that. But Yamamoto's got his pitch count down. He's there, he's ready. One out. Away cutter to Jackson Holiday. Boom. Solo shot. Okay, fine. It's three to one. Let's bring in premier fireman Blake Trinen to get the final out. And we'll have a stirring victory either way. And of course, Trine and double walk. Wild pitch.

[Grant Brisby]

Walk.

[Andy]

No, no, excuse me. Double hits a guy, a wild pitch.

[Grant Brisby]

Walk, walk.

[Andy]

He's out. It's three to two. Here comes Tanner Scott. Two run single up the middle by Emmanuel Rivera. And the Dodgers have just an absolutely crushing defeat. And look, they came back and won the next day. You know, Clayton Kershaw was pretty good. Shohei Otani hit two home runs in his first two at bats. And then I don't think they saw a strike for the rest of the day. They still have the best roster, they still have the best players. They still have all the things. Nothing has changed. But at some point, like, you do have to like, like, win like baseball games. And it's just, I don't know, they've sort of. They're one game up on San Diego, basically, you know, they're five back, I think, on the Phillies, you know, so they're probably going to be the 3 seed if they win the division. We talked going into this year, which was more likely 120 or 89. They're on pace according to fan graphs, I think, to win 90. And it's sort of like the season from hell, while Shohei Ohtani is going to win the mvp and Freddie Freeman's been. And Will Smith has been really like Yoshinobi Yamamoto has been great. Like, they've had a bunch of thing like tent poles go. Right. It's just kind of everything else has been disastrous and I don't know, they're clearly a resilient bunch. They're clearly a talented bunch, but, man, they do not have the juice as currently constituted.

[Sam Miller]

We're going to have to go back to their. Clearly a resilient bunch. I don't know if that's just filler, text filler that you threw in there or if you mean it, but I.

[Andy]

Do, but we can go into it.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. If you had to answer, if someone asked you, like, oh, where have the Dodgers underperformed? Not like the psychological reason, but like, where has their roster failed them? And you had to limit it to like one thing what would you. What would each of you say?

[Grant Brisby]

No, I was waiting for your answer.

[Andy]

I guess this is cheating a little bit, but corner outfield has been disastrous. Conforto and Teoscar Hernandez have been. Been disastrous.

[Sam Miller]

That's right. They've both been horrible. Teosco Hernandez, you know, like it was a little bit of a down year, but not like a terrible year, but he's hit a real slump. And those are two positions where you expect offense, two positions that should be easy to fill. Two positions for a team with depth. There should be tons of options there. And instead those are the two positions, the two positions that they are below average in Major League Baseball, according to baseball references, wins above average. Those are the only two positions they've been below average and by a lot. So that's a great answer, Grant.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, that's right. I was stalling because I was actually going to pull up wins above average, and so I did. And it's Michael Conforto and the bullpen. And Michael Conforto is using him as sort of like a catch, all for just their general outfield malaise.

[Andy]

You know, I mean, it really is just. It's just Michael Conforto not.

[Grant Brisby]

Okay, I don't want to hear it. Nice.

[Andy]

Yeah, he plays. Oh, he. Like, that's the thing is as is Sam said, it's like if you're. If you were trying to. What's the easiest position to like produce two to three wins. Like, it's like left field and right field. I feel like, you know, just get like build a platoon of two guys with a 110 OPS plus, you know, and they just, they do not have that.

[Sam Miller]

Especially now too, because left field is kind of where teams just like throw their utility guy a lot of times. So many major leaguers now have left field experience. Like practically every infielder has left field experience now. So it isn't really even like you need to go get like a prototypical left field platoon there. You can just throw, you know, whatever. Like there's a lot of guys that could play left field and they, they haven't been able to do that. Partly because their depth has been challenged by a lot of infield injuries, partly because they really do genuinely seem to be more optimistic about Michael Conforto than anyone else. He plays every day and it's wild. So the bullpen going into the year, probably the, the top six relievers would have been Tanner Scott, Alex Fessia, Kirby Yates, Blake Trinen, Michael Kopeck, and Evan Phillips. Last year, those guys were worth a combined 11 war this year. Those guys have been worth a combined one war. So classic bullpen. What are you going to do about it? Problem. The guys you think are good aren't actually good. Kirby Yates, in some ways was the he. Not nearly the most significant signing that the Dodgers made, but in some ways that was like the. The most laughable is like they already had so many players, and then they just go get the best reliever on the market and Kirby, come on. Yeah, that was the oh, come on move. Exactly. And Kirby Yates has gone from 3.3 war last year to sub replacement level this year. I think that's a very good second answer. And then the third answer is that I think the rotation doesn't look weak going into October. Other than Yamamoto, the other four starters who were supposed to be part of that great rotation have thrown like 150 innings, I think. So they had a lot of rotation depth behind them, and some of the guys have provided good depth, but, you know, they. They just haven't been able to make up for the rotation. And so they have the third best offense in baseball, margin of error with the best. So they, you know, they've hit fine for the most part. Their pitching is only average. That's a big problem. Their bullpen is one of the worst in the league. Their defense average or worse, their catcher framing near the bottom. So that's kind of the whole story now. So there we answered the. What went wrong now? What went wrong, though? Like, what's going on here?

[Andy]

There's a couple things. One, they're old. They're the oldest team in the sport that's showing up in ways that, you know, like, did you know Mookie Betts is slower than Will Smith?

[Sam Miller]

Mm, no.

[Andy]

You know, like, this is not the slight thing.

[Sam Miller]

The pitcher.

[Grant Brisby]

The actor.

[Andy]

You know, Mookie Betts is like, going to the hall of Fame. He's like an incredible baseball player, but he's like, taking a step backwards, especially offensively. You know, his body is not what it was when he was a young man putting up, you know, eight win seasons. And I think also too, like, it's a long season, it's a grind. And they don't really have young players bringing energy in the way that, you know, like when we had Chandler Roman and he was like, talking was like, the thing about Cam Smith is like, he's really energized this bunch. Like, they don't have that. They were hoping it could be Dalton rushing, and it kind of didn't end up working. That way, you know, there's that. I also think like, there's a reason teams like the Dodgers didn't give out $70 million contracts to relievers because they knew that those often go very, very bad. There's a reason that they, you know, didn't do the things like the Kirby Yates deal because they, it was like, it's not an efficient way of spending money. You know, they, they knew all these things and you know, te Oscar Hernandez, they kind of had to re sign him because he was so important to the team last year. Both like on the field and you know, for vibes he. Sunflower seeds. But like, who's surprised about what is, you know. And they even got him at like a discount, right? It was like a three year deal. Like they didn't do like five years, 125 for him. It's like 360, you know, like no one's upset about that. But it's gone kind of how those contracts go for players of that profile, you know, at that age. And so I think that like some of it is they did things that when teams that don't win all the time do. People like us are like, jeez, yeah, we'll see how that goes. You know. But it's like, well, it's the Dodgers. So like, clearly they know more. And it's like, so what has gone wrong is that they built a team through, you know, in a lot of ways through free agency that doesn't work.

[Sam Miller]

Basically. They're old and they don't have spark is. Is what you're saying, I will also.

[Grant Brisby]

I'll throw in. So when they signed Michael Conforto, I said, oh, right. That was my initial reaction, even though I had watched Michael Conforto most of his at bats over the previous, you know, two seasons. And I wasn't very impressed. But I said, oh, they see something, right? They see something that they can unlock. They looked at his road splits and they see the swing and they see the bats. They've got their secret Dodger metrics. They've got something called la sorta in all caps except the A is lowercase, right? And they. That's what they're using. It didn't work. You know what I mean? And so I, I wonder that idea of, oh, they're going to take him and make him better. At one point we thought that like the Cardinals just had this infinite reserve of no name utility slash outfield guys. At one point they were thumpers. And then they started becoming these Nolan's.

[Andy]

Gorman and Matt Carpenter.

[Grant Brisby]

These guys would appear in their Cardinals and they're good for a few years and then they're not. And then they stopped doing that. And it. I don't know why the Dodgers couldn't make Michael Conforto specifically into a good player, but the idea is that they're going to take players and make them better. They're going to, they're going to rub some Dodger sauce over them and make them better in some capacity. And if that has stopped or if the league has caught on to what is in that Dodger sauce and now there's more competition for the guys leaving the Dodgers, well, I guess we can try and rub some on Michael Conforto rather than. We know this will work. That's a big, that's a big difference for the Dodgers. Having more competition for the same players that they would gussy up.

[Andy]

Yeah, I think that there's.

[Grant Brisby]

That.

[Andy]

I do think that that has become a flatter sort of plane than it had been where, you know, they used to be very good at like, outsourcing. Like, hey, we got Chris Taylor. Like, let's get him involved with our hitting guys. Oh, he's got a leg kick. Oh, wow. He's like a four win player now that. I think a lot of teams have sort of figured that out, you know, kind of the bigger issue. And this is part of the, part of the problems when you don't draft high in, you know, because you're winning every year and you're losing picks on signing guys and stuff like that is like really the only homegrown star that they have produced in the 2020s is Will Smith. Right. And Will Smith's awesome, you know, like, he's a great player, but they don't have like a fleet of guys coming up. And that is just partially because, like, they don't pick in the top 10 ever. And it's hard to just drill the draft over and over again, especially when you are going to be, you know, kind of churning through prospects in terms of, in terms of, you know, trades. When the bar to reach the majors is so high, it's like there's, there's not the pipeline they, they believe, you know, is gonna. They're like maybe in a little bit of a gap with that because they, some of the lower level guys are considered to be pretty good, but like their lower level guys are always considered to be pretty good because they tend to identify talent really, you know. Well, so, I don't know, I just. Yeah, like, there's not, there's not as Sam said, they're. They're old and they lack spark. And that's kind of, you know, it's hard to repeat. Ready to order?

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[Sam Miller]

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[Andy]

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[Grant Brisby]

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[Andy]

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[Grant Brisby]

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[Andy]

Bombas are so absurdly comfortable, you may.

[Sam Miller]

Throw out all your other clothes.

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[Andy]

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[Sam Miller]

This is pure pundit brain here. I don't. There's no evidence for this. It's entirely speculative. But the way that I explained it to Normie Friend the other day, if you were trying to come up with theories beyond random fluctuation, which is what I always. Which is what I always end up with, but it's that they, you know, they're an organization that defines their season by October. And when that's the case, it can be hard to get up for the regular season. You know, there's just not much urgency when you're coming off a World Series, when you win the division almost every year, when the division around you doesn't look super strong, and it hasn't been this year, when you're. You know that your season is going to be defined at the end of the year by whether or not you won the World Series or at least made it there, it can be easy to sleepwalk through the regular season. And I don't know how you would prove that. I don't know how you would turn that from. It makes sense. It's a plausible hypothesis into evidence, but it makes sense. It is a plausible hypothesis, and it's kind of what I've been counting on this whole time. I mean, I. I'm. I'm way out on a limb in my head. I just have been sticking up for the Dodgers to an absurd degree. This whole time in the last couple weeks have just really been head spinning because they're getting worse. The more confident I speak, the worse they get. And it's conceivable. Again, if you want to go exponential pundit brain, it's conceivable that they were sleepwalking through the first five months and expecting to flip the switch. And when they flipped the switch and no lights came on, they panicked. And now they have, like. Like, real momentum problems now. They got no juice, and everybody can see it. So maybe, you know, maybe this becomes a permanent problem. But I guess that's my theory. I don't expect anyone to believe me on this. But just if you want to know where my head is at, I still genuinely do think it's going to be so obnoxious when October comes and the Switch does flip and they just dominate. I still expect that, but we will see. I mean, right now. Whoo.

[Andy]

Well, what is funny is that the Switch's name is Max Muncie, Right? Like, when Muncie is in the lineup, they are just so much more dynamic group. He lengthens the. You know, the. The way that it functions. The difference is, though, really, the back half of that lineup, it's not just that they're, like dead spots, but they're. They can be just kind of quick outs, you know, Andy Pahas is having a good year, but, like, he doesn't really grind, you know what I mean? Like, in the way that Mookie Betts grinds and Freddie Freeman grinds and Muncie really grinds on pitchers. And so, like, when a guy is sort of, you know, they'll have guys on the ropes and then they have, you know, sort of one. Conforto is just not playing particularly well. Te Oscar Hernandez is, you know, kind of a free swinger. Pajes is a free swinger. And so just that lineup doesn't have the, like, patient at bats in the back half that, you know, it has had in previous iterations of the Dodgers team. And, like, they're still effective players. You know, Hernandez is like, for as bad a season as he's having as a league average hitter. But it just. When things are going bad, it looks worse because it goes quicker, if that makes sense.

[Grant Brisby]

I will say that if there is one team, maybe the Yankees would have an argument for it, but if there's one team that really could use that by, like you said, one of the oldest teams in baseball, if there's one team that could really go, whoo. We could use just a few extra days off between now and when we have to turn that switch on. It's the Dodgers, but I think that's gone now. I think it's. It's brewers, it's Phillies. And now the Dodgers have an extra best of five series, which this does not seem like the team that is built to just, like, crank out a small series and dominate. Like, there's weird lights afoot.

[Andy]

It doesn't. But also like, you know, they can roll out Yamamoto and Blake Snell in two games and just beat the crap out of whoever the sixth seed is. You know what I mean? Like, it can be like the Phillies playing the Marlins a few years ago, where it's like, they Marlins. Like, when was that? You know, like, I've spent a decent amount of time around the Dodgers these last couple weeks, and the number of conversations I've had with various people, you know, in the organization about just like, so what is the rotation going to look like? And the wide range of what the answers are for the postseason is very. It's going to be, as you know, we talked about it a few weeks ago. It's going to be very interesting to see how they deploy their starting rotation going into October. But it could also be over in two games, so maybe we won't see it in full bloom.

[Grant Brisby]

As always, my suggestion, Kershaw, short rest. Sorry. Go, Sam.

[Sam Miller]

There's often a team in baseball that is way better than the rest of their division. Sometimes they're way better than the rest of the league, but often, you know, they're they're, you know that they're in the AL Central and there's no other good team and they're a really good team. Right. And there are sometimes there are owners that will say, I'm willing to spend whatever it takes. So the Dodgers kind of had both of those things going into this year. They built a team that was, looked like it could be the best team going into a season that we've ever seen. All right, the next time an owner has a situation like that where they have built clearly the best team in baseball and Kirby Yates is available and they can, they can, they can do the oh, come on, move. Are they going to look at the Dodgers experience in 2025 as reason to never let up the gas? Let off the gas and just keep, keep adding. Like, oh, you project to win 117 games, you better add. Because look at what happened to the Dodgers. Don't ever stop adding. Or do they look at the 2025 Dodgers as. It's not worth it. No matter how good you get, you're gonna, that's just gonna raise expectations that are gonna make you look worse when you're, you know, quietly winning your division.

[Grant Brisby]

If I'm a multi billionaire owner and I own a sports team and if I ever do get multi billions and you're listening to this is Way to Vet Me, Rob Manfred. I am pro owner. This is a pro owner podcast. We have always been a pro owner.

[Sam Miller]

Podcast owners are basically the labor force at the top, right?

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm big on, on being an owner, but I would.

[Andy]

They're labor creators.

[Sam Miller]

If you want to be pro labor.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah.

[Sam Miller]

Okay.

[Grant Brisby]

It all trickles down. It all. No, we're not cutting any.

[Andy]

We're turning around. We're pro. We're pro owners because they are labor.

[Sam Miller]

Brian, edit all this out. Except for me telling you to edit it out.

[Grant Brisby]

No, edit two sentences out, but keep the. All right, so we have. If I'm an owner, I am just gonna look at all 26 spots and say, can I do better than this? Like, is this guy, you know, 26 man on the bench? He plays a little short, a little, little second. He can do the outfield if you want him, maybe put him behind the plate. He's great. Can we do better? Right? That's how. I don't understand how you don't do that. So if you are. It's different with the Dodgers because they're Guggenheim Partners. It's not like it's one monolithic owner, but If I'm a monolithic owner, I'm. I'm going for the. Oh, now what? Every time.

[Andy]

Yeah. It's so clearly going to make owners less interested in spending, as if they already were. Like, I mean, it's so clearly gonna do the opposite because they're not geared that way, Grant. Like, oh, I know. Like, I. I would rather have you as an owner because I just think you would do such wacky things.

[Grant Brisby]

Oh, I'd have a clown. You know, a clown horn.

[Andy]

Bill Veck would be spinning in his grave being like, that guy doesn't respect the game.

[Grant Brisby]

You know what I do? I sit down with a legal notepad and just watch a bananas game. That's what I would do. Just take notes, baby.

[Andy]

I think that, like, what made what the Dodgers did this winter so surprising is, like, you know, that they know these contracts are inefficient is the. You know. You know that they think that this is, like, silly. But, hey, look, if you can get the player, go get the player. I just don't know that there's going to be scenarios in future years where, you know, like, if the brewers win the World Series this year, right? Like, will they add payroll? Probably. You know, they probably won't be cutting payroll the way they were after winning the division last year, but are they going to be in the market for Kyle Tucker?

[Grant Brisby]

No.

[Andy]

Like, it's. It's gonna, you know, prove their priors. I think it's gonna prove that, like, hey, the way we're doing this keeps working. So, like, yeah, maybe we can spend a little bit, or maybe we don't have to trade Freddie Peralta, but, like, it's not gonna put them suddenly in the. In the market for, like, the Kirby Yates, David Robertson types, you know, they. They view those contracts as not worth the money. They being the royal they of not just specifically the brewers, but the royal they of the executive brain, you know, views those contracts as inefficient.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. Yeah. I could see it going either way, which is why we laid out both those scenarios. I think. I tend to agree, Andy, that if it has any effect on anybody, that it would make the next owner less likely to spend. I think that there's a lot of. I don't know if it's quite ego, but there's something psychologically powerful about, like, just not wanting to get ripped off. Like, not wanting to get. Not wanting to feel like you're. You're burning your money. And the more sure or the more reliable you think that, you know, what you're spending it on is. I think the, like, the easier it is to do it. So I don't know, I think the more that it looks like a gamble or the more that you get this mindset that players let you down, the easier it is to get for owners to get sort of skittish about spending that money and think, well, why would I spend money on Kirby eights when I can just. Just get, you know, a bunch of, you know, rookie relievers and have them do the same thing? So I think that that's not a. That's, that's not an accurate way of viewing the world. You know, players that make more money tend to outperform players who don't make money. But I think that probably to the degree that any message will be imprinted on the minds of owners, it will be that baseball players are unreliable. Just look at the 20, 25 Dodgers.

[Grant Brisby]

We only got a couple minutes left. Someone had thoughts about the Phillies fan stealing a foul ball. I didn't, but someone surprisingly did. Who was it?

[Andy]

Leave this lady alone.

[Grant Brisby]

Okay, that's fine. That's basically what I. Not, not great. Not a great look.

[Andy]

Yeah, no bad behavior. Like got, you know, but should be limited to getting yelled at by fans within that section. Leave the lady alone. Leave her alone.

[Grant Brisby]

I think we're all there. Don't do it. But also, don't do that.

[Sam Miller]

I saw somebody on Reddit who was like, they didn't really know the ethics of foul ball chasing or home run chasing, loose ball chasing. And they're like, that guy ran from, like, a really long ways away. Is that okay? And of course it is okay. Like, that's the rules. The rules are if the ball's on the ground, you can run from anywhere. You know, if you've got an open lane, you can run from anywhere to get that. To get that loose ball.

[Grant Brisby]

The Hampton theorem.

[Sam Miller]

But you can imagine that to a person who doesn't know the customs of the space that, like, you could imagine someone thinking, the ball hit me first hit off my chest. Why don't I get it? I'm not in any way defending the decision to pursue that belief further, but it is just to note that we all take our customs for granted. And to outsiders, they don't necessarily come quite as intuitively. Maybe, maybe now I will say, I don't want to live in a world where I don't get to watch the video of that lady doing that thing and hate her with all of my heart. But I also don't want to live in A world where the first instinct is to share that with everybody else so that they can all communally hate her together and seek punishment.

[Grant Brisby]

You know, seek some sort of redress.

[Andy]

When you see posts, that's like a screen grab of the lady who, to be clear, to clear up some confusion, is not my aunt. So please stop.

[Sam Miller]

She definitely enjoy. She definitely was watching the Eagles.

[Andy]

We are not related. I do not know that person. Tell Mark Kerrig to stop telling people that. That is my aunt. But when you see a screen grab of this lady and people are posting things like X the everything site, do your thing. And it's just like, that's disgusting. Like, leave this just. Poor lady alone. She did a dumb thing. She got yelled at by everyone in the stadium. She was embarrassed on tv. That's plenty. Leave the lady alone.

[Grant Brisby]

I think that's roundtable consensus for the.

[Sam Miller]

I think that's. I think that's about right. And I actually, I even feel, if anything, I feel guilty that we. That I'm part of the world where even the first part happened. Like, I feel bad for her. Even just. I feel bad for her that she knows that somewhere out there Sam Miller is enjoying her dis. You know, her. It sucks. I feel a little bit implicated in the whole thing, but definitely don't take it further.

[Grant Brisby]

Do you guys remember the Astros lady, I believe it was?

[Sam Miller]

Oh, yeah, the gif.

[Grant Brisby]

The famous gif. All right, so it's a kid has it in hand, fingers around the ball, lady goes in standing next, rips out of hands of child. That person should be arrested. Right? If a child has their hands wrapped around a ball and you in your greed, rip that out, that says something about you as society to the moon. We'll give you a couple sandwiches. You can find more food on the moon.

[Andy]

I think that sort of scrambling for the ball and ripping the ball and being sort of chaotic for the ball is while uncouth within bounds. I do think you should be allowed a beat to, like, take a breath and think and be like, oh, that was a child. I'm so sorry. I just wanted the ball, you know, like, we should have. There should be. The rules should include a cooling down where you think about like, hey, I got this. I'm 49. What am I gonna do with this? Text my buddies. Okay, yeah, I'll give it to that child over there. You know what I mean?

[Grant Brisby]

It always goes back to what I've said for 20 plus years now is that you go to a game and you have a glove on your hand and you're listening to the game and you're thinking, with this glove on your hand, gosh, what if a ball comes to me and then all of a sudden the ball gets hit and the ball's getting bigger because it's coming down and it is coming at you. And you brought this glove, the moment you've been waiting for your whole life. And you just put your glove up because you're not an athlete. Well, now you're Steve Bartman. And you have to, like, live in a different country for the rest of your life.

[Andy]

You'll never be seen again.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, it's terrible. Terrible. So we are. We're. Are we still pro owner? No, no. They've. They've, they've turned it off. We're pro labor, and we are pro. Giving people a beat, but also pro. Don't do that.

[Sam Miller]

Pro. Unplug the Internet.

[Grant Brisby]

Pro. Yes. That is if that. If that led to the death of the show. It's a trade off, man.

[Sam Miller]

I will deliver cassette tapes to your house.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah. All right. There's been episode number 174. We'll be back on Friday. And I'm not gonna bull you. We're gonna talk Yankees, Dodgers, and you're gonna sit there and like it.

[Sam Miller]

We're gonna do it in the reverse order, though.

[Grant Brisby]

I see that.

[Andy]

I was very wrong. Ready to order?

[Advertiser/Host]

Yes. We're earning unlimited 3% cash back on dining and entertainment with a Capital One Saver Card. So let's just get one of everything.

[Sam Miller]

Everything.

[Andy]

Fire everything. The Capital One Saver card is at table 27, and they're earning unlimited 3% cash back.

[Grant Brisby]

Yes, chef.

[Advertiser/Host]

This is so nice.

[Andy]

Had a feeling you'd want 3% cash back on dessert.

[Advertiser/Host]

Ooh, tiramisu.

[Andy]

Earn unlimited 3% cash back on dining and entertainment with the Capital One Saver Card. Capital One, what's in your wallet?

[Sam Miller]

Terms apply.

[Andy]

See capitalone.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.

[Grant Brisby]

Behind every successful HR strategy is a story worth hearing. Season two of the Talent Transformation podcast is here. Join Dimitri Boylan as he sits down with HR leaders from Deloitte, Emirates, Siemens and more to explore. Explore how they're tackling challenges and making a real impact. Subscribe now so you never miss an episode the Talent Transformation Podcast. Redefining talent one conversation at a time.