The Roundtable | What to make of the Dylan Cease deal

Summary

The Windup: The Roundtable | What to Make of the Dylan Cease Deal

Episode 194 — December 1, 2025
Hosts: Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough, Sam Miller

---

Episode Overview

This episode of The Windup's Roundtable centers on the blockbuster contract for pitcher Dylan Cease, contextualizing his value and the overall free agent pitching market. Grant, Andy, and Sam dissect not only the specifics of the Cease deal, but touch on larger industry trends, the predictability (or not) of MLB free agency contracts, and what recent market dynamics say about teams’ willingness to spend in the current offseason. The conversation weaves through analytics, the philosophy behind free agent deals, small-market team incentives, and the ever-rising price of pitching.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Temperature of This Offseason (04:00–06:53)

• Offseason spending is up: Contrary to some expectations, teams are opening their wallets, with the Blue Jays signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal.
  • Andy: "There’s, there’s money out there to be had and some guys are going to get rich." (04:49)
  • Grant/Andy/Sam's banter touches on the classic bull vs. bear debate, with Andy admitting he’d predicted a slow market, but real conversations with insiders shifted his view.
• Why are teams spending more?
  • Andy: Market opportunities for good-but-not-transcendent players; big spenders like the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays can’t sign everyone, so more players are cashing in elsewhere.

2. Is This Free Agent Market Actually "Hot"? (06:53–10:03)

• Contracts lining up with expectations: Despite social media surprise at deals like Josh Naylor’s five years or Cease’s mega-deal, industry predictions (MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Britton) were spot on.
  • Sam: “There was more disagreement going into this offseason about what the market was going to be like than I realized. And so far MLB Trade Rumors was just accurate.” (07:59)
• Formulas, not feelings: Grant expresses amazement at how predictive these models are, while Andy admits to being the type of GM who’d always be outbid by a “more irrational” executive.

3. The Dylan Cease Contract — Rational or Wild? (08:28–15:35)

• Is $210 million for Cease crazy?
  • Andy recounts skepticism given Cease’s 4.5 ERA season and notes that, historically, similar contracts were reserved for perennial aces like Clayton Kershaw.
    • Andy: “It just seems … it’s a lot of moolah.” (09:06)
  • Sam argues inflation is crucial: “We are slow to adjust to inflation … it’s actually just a normal trajectory … baseball salaries, they go up.” (10:03)
• Poker, solvers, and market predictability:
  • Sam compares free agency to computerized (“solver”) poker, saying deals are now almost paint-by-numbers.
    • Sam: “You just like, put the guy in his range and then … that tells you what to do. Dylan Cease contract.” (11:08)
  • Andy adds, “When you're trying to predict some of these contracts, there is a sort of plug and play aspect to it, but … the market will react correctly.”
• Irrationality in the Market:
  • Sam and Andy discuss how the days of teams blowing away the market for a favorite player might be less common, as most organizations have similar evaluations.

4. Dylan Cease as a Pitcher — Perceived Value vs. Reality (20:11–29:58)

• Cease’s “weird” statistical profile:
  • Sam: “If anybody should be polarizing, it should be Dylan Cease … two absolutely phenomenal years in the last five and then he's kind of been whatever in the other three.” (20:11)
  • His high strikeout rate, high walk rate, and good FIP make him look better by some analytics than his traditional stats would suggest.
• Will another team unlock his potential?
  • Andy throws water on the idea other teams will “fix” Cease, noting that the Padres and White Sox are competent orgs and he’s basically who he is.
• Durability as value:
  • Andy: “The biggest argument for Dylan Cease is this guy has taken the baseball, you know, 32 times or more in, like, five straight years.”
  • Sam: “He's bad at [suppressing hard contact], and he makes up for it by striking out a ton of guys … The sum of that is a pretty good pitcher … Clearly sub-ace.” (23:53)
• Comparisons and context:
  • The group discusses historical comps (Blake Snell, Tim Wakefield, R.A. Dickey) but note Cease is valued for dependability more than ace upside.

5. The Blue Jays’ Team-Building Philosophy (29:02–30:40)

• Cease fits a pattern:
  • Toronto values reliably healthy pitchers who post 30+ starts; Cease is another Chris Bassitt or José Berríos type.
    • Sam: “He fits with José Berríos in that sort of way too.” (30:19)
  • The Blue Jays will pay for stability, not just upside.

6. Small Market Teams, Revenue Sharing, and Market Gamesmanship (32:14–40:59)

• Pirates/Marlins free agency posturing:
  • Sam introduces a theory that small-market teams making noise about spending could be for CBA politics—showing “good faith” so they can keep collecting revenue-sharing.
    • Sam: “Revenue sharing is basically a bribe to the Pirates and the Marlins to not be good.” (34:16)
    • Sam: “If the Marlins and Pirates had to be good to make money, they would go sign the players that the Dodgers want. If they don’t have to be good to make money, they'll hang out, take the checks... That feels like a pretty good deal.” (35:12)
• Do big-market teams really want small-market teams to spend?
  • The panel debates if the “rich” teams secretly prefer their competitors to take the money and stay bad, using the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins as examples.
• “Bribery” vs. “Perverse incentive”:
  • Andy and Grant carefully clarify no actual bribery occurs—just the legal oddities of MLB’s financial incentives. (37:11)
• Genuine reasons for smaller teams’ interest in spending:
  • Both the Pirates (Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, upcoming prospects) and Marlins have reasons to try to win now.
  • Sam: “The Pirates have this window with Paul Skenes … and the Marlins have a team that, you know, kind of overperformed, is young, had some really good vibes last year, and has some easily identifiable holes.” (39:10)

7. Why Don’t More Teams Take the Big Risk? (44:08–45:51)

• “Jayson Werth contract” fallacy:
  • Andy put a pin in the long-running annual tradition of outsiders suggesting that bad teams can kickstart a successful cycle with one big free agent.
    • Andy: “It happened one time. It sort of worked. It’s not going to happen again.” (44:24)
• GM incentives vs. team incentives:
  • Discussion about how a GM’s personal desire for job security can sometimes be at odds with the long arc of a franchise.
  • Sam: “If I were advising the Pirates, I probably would not advise them to sign any players. … If I were advising Ben Charrington, I would say sign every player you can.” (44:31)
  • Andy: Many GMs, once fired, regret “wavering from the course,” even if those deviations were small at the time (46:10).
• Poker analogy for front office risks:
  • Grant draws a comparison between a GM’s minor deviations and a poker player missing a slightly larger river bet—probably not fatal, but feels big to the player (47:28).

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Inflation:
  • Sam Miller (10:03): “We are slow to adjust to inflation. We all have in our mind, like, what a pack of gum costs… but it's actually just a normal trajectory that has been going on for 7,000 years of human commerce. And baseball salaries, they go up.”
• On Free Agent Rationality:
  • Andy McCullough (08:28): “If I was the GM, I would be the guy in the Andrew Fried[man] quote making a rational offer and finishing third on every free agent.”
• On Cease’s Value:
  • Michael Baumann via Sam Miller (25:34): “Cease is both the best bat-missing starter in the majors and the least injury prone starter in the majors. Aren’t those the two most important attributes for a pitcher?... Cease is the worst case scenario for a pitcher who's the best in the world at the two most important things a pitcher needs to do.”
  • Andy: “That is brutal, but accurate.” (25:57)
• On “Stuff” vs. Repertoire:
  • Grant Brisbee (26:17): “Stuff’s cool. Can he prevent runs? Like, that's what we're actually trying to do. We're not trying to impress the East German judge…”
• On Small-Market Team Incentives:
  • Sam Miller (34:16): “Revenue sharing is basically a bribe to the Pirates and the Marlins to not be good.”
• On Blue Jays’ Philosophy:
  • Sam Miller (29:02): “While we're talking about whether Dylan Cease is or is not Superman, they're like, check out Clark Kent over here. That's what we needed. We needed a guy who'll show up in glasses every day. And he is that.”

---

Segment Timestamps

• [02:05] — Banter & personal updates
• [03:57] — Setting the scene: Hot stove temperature, early spending trends
• [04:09–05:41] — Teams’ willingness to spend in the current climate
• [06:53–08:28] — Snap reactions to Naylor and Cease contracts vs. predictive models
• [08:28–10:03] — Debating if the Cease deal is rational
• [10:03–12:41] — The effect of inflation and market cycles
• [12:41–16:57] — Poker, solvers, and the disappearance of outlier bids in the free agent market
• [20:11–25:33] — What kind of pitcher is Dylan Cease really?
• [25:34–29:58] — Does Cease’s profile fit what winning teams value?
• [29:02–30:40] — Blue Jays’ blueprint for their rotation
• [32:14–42:59] — Pirates, Marlins, and the realpolitik of revenue sharing
• [44:08–47:28] — The problems with chasing the big “Werth” signing; GMs’ personal incentives
• [47:28–48:40] — Poker analogies for front office decision making; episode close

---

Conclusion

This episode offers an incisive look at the evolving logic of baseball free agency, focusing on why the Dylan Cease deal makes sense in 2025’s financial and competitive context. The hosts conclude that while some deals may appear outrageous using old benchmarks, the market is becoming both more predictable to industry insiders and more rationalized, with even “outlier” contracts fitting into an updated logic. At the same time, small-market teams still face perverse incentives not always aligned with actual competitiveness, and even GMs are not immune from thinking about their own job security first.

If you want to understand how smart baseball insiders view free agency trends, this discussion is as close to an executive roundtable as you’ll get without a Winter Meetings credential.

Transcript

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Starting a podcast or business can feel overwhelming. Schedules, logos and endless decisions. But the right tool can change everything for millions. That tool is Shopify. Shopify powers 10% of all US E commerce from Mattel to new brands just launching. With templates for beautiful stores, AI tools for content and built in marketing, Shopify helps you sell smarter. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com TheAthletic go to shopify.com TheAthLetic shopify.com TheAthLETic with no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking. With Capital One, if he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends it's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capitalone.com banker FDIC.

This holiday season, connection with the kids we love is the best gift of all. Right now, kids on average are spending between five to nine hours a day on screens and studies link heavy use to rising anxiety, anxiety and depression with social media being at the center of it all. That's why gab makes kids safe. Phones and watches, no Internet, no social media. Just the right features for their age. With Gab's tech in steps approach kids get the right tech at the right time. So if a phone is on your child's wish list, make it a gab. The gift of safe connection. For an exclusive holiday offer, visit gab.com getgab and use code getgab that's G A B B.com getgab Gab Tech insteps independence for them, peace of mind for you.

[Grant Brisby]

This is the wind up. Welcome to episode number 194 of the Roundtable. Grant Brisby here at Andy McCullough and Sam Miller. Andy, how you doing today?

[Andy McCullough]

I'm good, good.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah.

[Andy McCullough]

No complaints.

[Grant Brisby]

All right. We didn't talk about this after the show. Any anything you want to share? What you been doing lately?

[Andy McCullough]

I have been following Lane Kiffin. What's going on with Lane Kiffin? Yeah, eagerly awaiting, you know, the latest missive from Ryan Lizza, of course, getting, you know, making anonymous accounts on Reddit to call for Nick Sirianni's ouster.

[Grant Brisby]

Don't even know who that is. Yep.

[Andy McCullough]

And, yeah, my. My son was born a couple weeks.

[Grant Brisby]

Hey.

[Andy McCullough]

That's been.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

Bearing the lead like he's want to do. Congratulations to Andy McLean and wife and son. Thank you. Sam, how you do? Yeah.

[Andy McCullough]

All right. Good times. No, let's move on. Yeah, that's fine, Grant.

[Sam Miller]

Thanks.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah.

[Grant Brisby]

Okay. Yeah, I was just about to just like. Sam, what'd you do? No. All right. Eddie, how has it been for you? How's it been?

[Andy McCullough]

It's been nice. I mean, my wife is a champ. She's been doing a great job. Little Robbie is, you know, doing. Doing good. And we get to hang out all the time and watch college football. So we're having. We're having a blast.

[Grant Brisby]

That's a blast. That's a blast. My. My kid. I had that. That moment. My kid swears at me constantly, just F bomb this, F bomb that. Usually for something I've done wrong. So it doesn't, you know, enjoy these times. Sam, how you doing?

[Sam Miller]

I'm okay. Which kid?

[Grant Brisby]

Oh, Amelia. Well, actually, you know, they both have their father's mouth. I've done a couple tours around. I've circumnavigated the globe. I'm a. So they got my mouth. Apologies to that. Sam, how you doing?

[Sam Miller]

I'm okay. Yeah? All right.

[Grant Brisby]

Let's talk baseball. Let's talk ball. Let's talk moves. Hot stove action. The stove is. I wouldn't say it's hot, but there have been some December 1st where the stove hasn't been this warm. It's. It's like a temperate stove.

[Andy McCullough]

Wouldn't you say it's a warmer stove? I mean, I think it's. It's. The stove is warm enough that we probably will not have an off season of sort of stories about why no one's spending. There's some teams willing to spend. I think when we talked about when we were kind of doing our off season preview, I was pretty bullish or bearish. Which one is the bad one?

[Sam Miller]

There is a bull, a big statue of a bull at Wall Street. Right.

[Grant Brisby]

And bears sleep for a long time. Bears go night night.

[Sam Miller]

So the bull represents positive.

[Grant Brisby]

Merrill Lynch.

[Sam Miller]

They wouldn't put a bear in front of.

[Andy McCullough]

But didn't Merrill lynch go out of business?

[Grant Brisby]

Did they? I used to work there.

[Sam Miller]

All right.

[Andy McCullough]

Okay. So I was bearish about the. The amount of teams, the number of teams who would be willing to spend. I neglected to mention that after having some actual conversations with people in baseball at the GM meetings, that I was very Wrong. And there are some teams willing to spend. And the Toronto Blue Jays gave Dylan cease $200 million. And that was not on my bingo card for a variety of reasons. So, yeah, I would say there's, there's money out there to be had and some guys are going to get rich.

[Sam Miller]

When you discovered that teams were willing to spend, was there any kind of like, theme for why they're willing to spend or, like, what types of teams or what the market forces are that are causing this willing to spend ness or, or anything like that? Or was it just like, you know, some, some team's front office was talking about how crazy some other team's front office was acting?

[Andy McCullough]

I think there's a lot of times where you have these conversations where you ask, you know, like, hey, who are you in the market for? And be like, oh, you know, we're looking for this type of player. And like, oh, what about this guy? And they'll be like, yeah, we can't really afford that guy. And you're like, okay, so they're not spending any money. And there was less of that this time around. I think you can usually tell it's easier to figure out when teams are just like, yeah, we ain't, we're not, or not our owners not letting us do anything, you know, and then there's been obviously some reporting about, we'll get into it, you know, about the, the Pirates and the Marlins, and there was more teams kind of puffing their chest out to suggest that they would be, you know, sort of going hog wild and we shall see, you know, how wild those hogs get. I don't know if Grant's ever seen that film, but it seems like a Grant coded movie. But yeah, I think it's, I think it was just what is the underlying reason? I think these things just go in cycles, I think, because there's like a lot of good players and there's not many great players on the market, if that makes sense, like the Dodgers and Mets and Phillies and, you know, Blue Jays can't sign them all. And so there will be guys who kind of slip through the cracks. And so there's, there's just more opportunity.

[Sam Miller]

I think the two big moves so far were Josh Naylor getting five years and Dylan Cease getting $210 million. And both of those. I felt like the reaction, the snap reaction online was like, oh, wow, can you believe that? You know, Josh Naylor got five years, he's a first baseman. You know, all we've been hearing for the last decade is that the market doesn't work for, you know, first basemen entering their 30s or whatever. And Dylan cease getting seven years and $210 million. And, and it was interesting because I then I went over to MLB Trade Rumors free agency predictions for this winter, and they had Josh Naylor getting five years and $90 million. And they had Dylan cease getting, I think seven years and 190, which is basically the deferred adjustment, is accurate. There was more disagreement going into this off season about what the market was going to be like than I. Than I realized. And so far MLB Trade Rumors was just accurate like this. What we've seen so far is just like a very normal winter. Based on one way of, of anticipating it.

[Grant Brisby]

I will say that it does seem like the, the way that places like MLB Trade Rumors and also our own Tim Britton and the way they're able to nail down arbitration awards in free agent predictions. It's. It is a formula that I'm just not interested in or privy to. Like, it's, you know, I like to just go into it and just like, have an idea of a player and have an idea of what a good player should get and then go, wow. Or holy. That's how I operate. But the people who actually give these checks out seem to seem to have their finger on the Bulls.

[Andy McCullough]

I specifically teased Tim Britton for some of his figures when he put out his initial list and he had Dylan Cease at 6 for 175 of dumb. I sort of said to him about a variety of guys. I was like, this is insane. And he just, you know, he responds with like a detailed breakdown of like, why it's very sane. And I'm just sort of like, I would never be a gm, but if I was the gm, I would be the guy in the Andrew Fried quote making a rational offer and finishing third on every free agent. You know what I mean? Like, because I had this conversation with Nick Pocoro of the Arizona Republic at the GM meetings and we were talking about Cease because, like, Dylan Cease had a four and a half ERA last year, right? Over the last three years, he's had about a four era. He obviously has electric stuff, but he's going into his age 30 season. Clayton Kershaw signed a seven year, $215 million contract. Again, this was like 12 years ago, but that was the biggest contract ever. He was also the best pitcher in the game by, you know, a significant amount at that point. Dylan c signs for 7 10, 2 10, and he again had a four and a half ERA this past year. And I just sort of did. I don't. I don't get it. And the argument Nick made to me was like, well, do you think he'll be pitching in the majors in six, seven years? And I was like, yeah, yeah, I guess so. You know, like, healthy, you know, big stuff. Like, yeah, I guess so. And he's like, yeah, that's kind of, you know, what the going rate is for a guy who's, you know, has the potential to be good and is likely to take the ball a bunch over that time. And I was like, okay, you know, fair enough. But it just seems it's a lot of moolah.

[Sam Miller]

It always comes down to we don't understand how little money it is. Like, I say this, I feel like I say this every off season, but we are slow to adjust to inflation. We all have in our mind, like, what a pack of gum costs, we, what gas was when we first started driving, how much we paid for rent in college. And then every price seems outrageous compared to that. And you're like, yeah, but it's actually just a normal trajectory that has been going on for, you know, 7,000 years of human commerce. And baseball salaries, they go up. They don't. Like, they always look like a lot because we remember Barry bonds getting $43 million, but they just. They go up. They go up. And we're slow to adjust to them. I mean, I think the fact that, the fact that Tim more or less got the Dylan Cease trade right, and he wasn't like, trying to make some philosophical argument about Dylan Cease's value. Like, I don't, I didn't, I don't remember what his blurb said, but it probably didn't have anything to do with, like, tunneling or like, how they were gonna, like, play up this, you know, it just was like, well, this is what this guy type of guy gets. It's. I feel like in some ways, reading these pre off season predictions, particularly from, like, the people who really take it seriously, or reading the arbitration predictions, it almost feels like solver poker has gotten where, like, you're not. You don't even really have to think that hard. You just like, put the guy in his range and then like, that tells you what to do. DYLAN CEASE CONTRACT Like, I don't like Dylan Cease, particularly for a pitcher of his echelon. I can make all sorts of arguments for him, but I can, I prefer to make all the arguments against him, but, like, the bottom line is he's, you know, like, he's a pitcher who shows up, who you're perfectly content to have in your plans, who has had some really great seasons and offer some upside, who, you know, like, isn't 33. And you put those into the, the, you know, the calculator and it spits out seven years and 210. Like it really isn't like there's not that much art to it. It just is like, find guys who are kind of like him. What do they get? Adjust for inflation. And there we are. So I don't know that I'm like shocked by the Dillon cease signing. And I don't know how much fun it is to have the Dillon C signing because it just like is slotting guys in.

[Andy McCullough]

Sam, could you explain the solver to Grant and our listeners?

[Sam Miller]

Well, I don't know what, 10 or 15 years ago they started making these. Well, Andy, you could explain it a lot better than I could, but basically these programs that tell you what you should do in every poker situation. And the pros started like studying with solvers and memorizing solvers. So now everybody plays exactly the same way all the time. Like you just don't see anybody go out of bounds with any of their decisions anymore. And people complain that that's what makes poker so boring and what makes it so hard for, you know, amateurs to do well anymore. But that's kind of going a little too far.

[Grant Brisby]

So are the poker players. It's the, the velocity increase. So they can't just make like.

[Andy McCullough]

Well, there's a variety of ways around this. There's solver based players who basically again, the solver is like theoretically unbeatable because the solver has solved every situation. So it's not like they do the same thing in every spot, but they know the percentage of times they need to do like raise, call, fold or whatever or bet this amount. Bet this amount. The way they determine what they're going to do is based on like they'll look at a clock and based on where the small hand on a clock is, that's what they'll choose within the.

[Sam Miller]

Solver pie chart as like a randomizer.

[Andy McCullough]

As a randomizer, yeah. But all of this is to say that there are players who understand how the solver works and sort of play against it. And one version of that is called guerrilla mode. And so there's players like Jesse Lonis who's like on a tear right now, who kind of does that. And yeah, I would compare that to like A.J. preller who's like, I understand how you all See the world. And I disagree. I'm going to, you know, so anyway, and I think that it does. When you're trying to predict some of these contracts, like, there is a sort of plug and play aspect to it, but still that. That requires understanding that the market will react correctly, you know, based on, like, what the past suggests. And that's why I'm always just sort of like, well, why Aaron Nol is going to get $150 million. Like, did anyone watch him pitch last year? And then what does he do? He gets more than that. You know, it's an irrational market. I don't know.

[Sam Miller]

I feel like the level of irrationality, though, like, it used to be that Dylan. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong here, but it seems to me that it used to be that Dylan Cease would sign with somebody. Someone like Dylan Cease would sign with somebody. It'd be more than you expect. And you would assume, oh, wow, they really like Dylan Cease. Like, they fell for that guy. And in that way, the, you know, the Andrew Friedman quote about, if you're.

[Andy McCullough]

Rational on every free agent, you'll finish third on every free agent.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah. The idea that someone was acting irrationally on every free agent made some sense, though, because, you know, like, it was going to be the team that liked Dylan Cease the most was going to go out and overbid for him. And now it just feels like, well, everybody's kind of like shopping for a Dylan Cease at some point in their winning cycle. Maybe there's, like, a little philosophical, like, the Orioles are a lot less likely to go sign a Dylan Cease than the Blue Jays, you know, who have. Have employed a bunch of Dylan Ceases in the last few years. Like, that is clearly their type. But I don't know, it just doesn't feel like there's. I don't get the sense that, like, the Blue Jays are, like, betting high on Dylan Cease. It's just, no, he's. Who's available here. Here's what he costs.

[Andy McCullough]

They have endless trunks of money there. They've demonstrated a willingness to spend it. I think they're gonna keep spending it. And, you know, he is a very. Like, they like guys who post. And that's the thing.

[Sam Miller]

The.

[Andy McCullough]

The biggest argument for Dylan Cease is this guy has taken the baseball, you know, 32 times or more in, like, five straight years. That also means that he's got wear and tear on his arm, but that's neither here nor there. That's, you know, if these trends continue. So, yeah, I mean, like, I Think the way Sam put it is pretty good. It's like, it's, I don't think anyone looked at that as like, wow, that's a wild overpay. It's more just like, yeah, that's, I guess what it was going to take to sign him and Toronto was willing to hit it and he took it.

[Grant Brisby]

I do think that there is a way to kind of how do I reverse engineer your acceptance of these deals in a way where you look at the players now who are at the end of these deals that at the time you're like, oh wow, they got that, that person got that. And now they're in the final year of the contract. It's like, oh, that's, that's not, that's not bad. That's what players like that get me Rendone. Well, see those are the, those are the players like Pujols, obviously, it's like no matter when you looked at his numbers, like, wow, they're paying that to him now. Wow, that's amazing. But there are places and I think Sonny Gray is a bad example because is a weird contract backloaded, but also was a good deal at the time. Like we were all kind of surprised.

[Andy McCullough]

We love that.

[Grant Brisby]

It was like, wow, that's a really good deal. But you know, it's, he's at the point of his contract where it's the backlog apart, but it's still. The Red Sox are saying we might not spend that much. So we're going to take Sonny Gray as a, as a measure to stop ourselves from spending too much. We're going to trade for Cine Gray. Now they're in, they're saying we're not going to spend that much. They're in the papers saying that. So I do think that these big deals become more, you know, in line with what we're used to. And then the next big deal comes and it's just, that's the cycle that keeps repeating.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Starting a podcast or business can feel overwhelming. Schedules, logos and endless decisions. But the right tool can change everything. For millions. That tool is Shopify. Shopify powers 10% of all US E commerce from Mattel to new brands just launching with templates for beautiful stores, AI tools for content and built in marketing, Shopify helps you sell smarter. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into with Shopify. Shopify on your side. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com TheAthletic Go to shopify.com TheAthLetic shopify.com TheAthLETic.

[Paige from Giggly Squad]

Hey guys, it's Paige from Giggly Squad. And if you're anything like me, holiday shopping has officially started and you know where I'm going. Ulta Beauty they have the cutest gift sets right now, like the Sol de Janeiro, Shea Rosa and Cheer Perfume Mist Trio. It smells so good. I've been misting it everywhere. On me, on the street, on my pillow. It's a whole vibe. I'm obsessed with the Tarte Kindness Cafe collector set. It's packed with everyday makeup must haves and it's honestly too cute to wrap. And if you need a cozy little self care moment, the Moroccan Oil Hand Care Essentials kit is luxe, hydrating and smells delicious. Don't worry if you can't decide right now. An Ulta Beauty gift card is the perfect gift for everyone. So whether you're gifting your bestie or yourself, make the season yours and head to Ulta Beauty. Today. Ulta Beauty gifting happens here with no.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Fees or minimums on checking accounts. It's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends it's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capitalone.com bank capital1NA member FDIC.

[Sam Miller]

Dylan Cease is a really weird pitcher though. I do. I want to acknowledge that Dylan Cease is. If anybody should be polarizing, it should be Dylan Cease, in my opinion, because he's a pitcher who has had two absolutely phenomenal years in the last five and then he's kind of been whatever in the other three. And yet like the FIP is kind of always good. The strikeout rate is always really high. He leads the majors in whiff rate every year. He has like a sort of like a collection of attributes that seem really good for like a prospect. If he were a prospect, you'd be super amped that this guy can do things that nobody else, you know, can do at that level. But he's now got like a thousand innings. We know what he does from like a run suppressing standpoint and it's just okay. He is like a 110ish era plus guy. He strikes out a lot of batters, but he walks a lot of batters. He Gives up a lot of hard contact. And watching some of the analysis of the Dylan C. Signing that like, really focuses on the swing and miss, I feel like misses the point. It's like, it's like saying, well, you know, half of the equation is really incredible. Don't look at the. Don't look at the, you know, result.

[Andy McCullough]

He's been talked about almost prospect ish for a while. And like, he has this. When he got traded from the White Sox, you know, there was a dialogue of, like, well, now that he's on a real team, they're going to maximize what he's doing. And it's like, I don't know, man. Ethan Katz had him going pretty good in 2022. Like, he, you know, pretty close to winning the Cy Young. He was in San Diego. They are believed to have pretty good pitching. Deb, you know, people speak really highly of Ruben Diebla and like, he had a four and a half. So, like, I'm not sure that Toronto is going to unlock something that these other teams, you know, who are also trying hard and have all the information that, like the idea that there's a ceiling that has been untouched. I don't know, some guys, like, they have that ceiling, but they just spend their careers looking at it.

[Grant Brisby]

That is what you're looking at with Dylan Cease. It's. If he were going from the White Sox to the Blue Jays now, right, then you could say, well, maybe they've done the Andrew Vaughn thing. Maybe they've seen something that they're missing. He's coming from the Padres. Padres know what they're doing. Padres, you know, they can build a pitcher up. They can. They can make a pitcher better. And so what you're left with is a guy who. He is a confusing, confounding pitcher. He's got five years of 32 starts or more, but he's only cracked 100 inning once, 180 innings once. And so you're getting a lot of. Not five in dives, but you're getting a lot of, like, quality starts. You're getting a lot of like, hot starts through five or six innings. And then the pitch count gets them. I think with Cease, what you're looking at is when you look at that walk, the. The walks per nine, he just has. He. He has troubles commanding where the ball is going. And I think that when you have that kind of stuff, you can get away with it. But then sometimes you get a whoopsie right down the middle and then you go over to that home runs per nine column and that seems to be, you know, it's not inflated, but he's a guy that can get tagged when his control is off. And you're going to get that over 32 starts. Maybe. I don't know how I'm trying to put this, but I think his profile over 32 starts, you'll get a couple of real turds. But then in general, you're going to get Dylan Cease.

[Andy McCullough]

And just real quick, the Blake Snell comp kind of falls apart in that. What makes Snell elite is the way he suppresses slug. That is really like, everyone looks at Snell and they're like a lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks, and it's like, yes, but also he. He does not get hit hard.

[Grant Brisby]

That's by design. Like, I've. The more I watch Stone, the more I realize that he's walking the batters on purpose.

[Andy McCullough]

It's bearish. He's bearish on.

[Grant Brisby]

Not on purpose, but it's part of the strategy anyway.

[Sam Miller]

Cease just gets hit hard. Like, it's not. Sometimes, you know, he makes a mistake. His pitching strategy is based on overwhelming you with stuff, not on fooling you. And because he's not fooling anybody, you know, because he's beating them or, or not beating them, when he doesn't beat them, they're on the pitch. And if you look at his quality of contact or his results on contact over the last five years, he's considerably below average. That's not a good indicator. Like, if you look at the pitchers who are around him, they're mostly mediocre. And if you look at the pitchers who are better than him, they're mostly the good ones. So that is obviously a really important skill. He's bad at that skill, and he makes up for it by striking out a ton of guys. The sum of that is a pretty good pitcher. Like, it's like a 114 era plus and he posts all the time. And you're not worried about him in a postseason start. He's not a hole that you need to fill. But, you know, he's clearly, clearly sub ace.

[Grant Brisby]

What do you think the aces are going to get?

[Andy McCullough]

Who's the ace? He might be the. I mean, Valdez is probably the best.

[Grant Brisby]

IME and framber Valdez.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, yeah. Imai is. He's very interesting in that he's got. Yamamoto probably made him a good chunk of money, I would say, because the success Yamamoto's had is probably gonna, you know, send some more suitors to the EMA window because you look at the, you know, sort of the size profile, right? You're like, oh, that's not going to hold up. And they're like, well, wait, I just saw the baddest who's ever come through the land. Maybe, maybe this guy's like him, you.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Know, I don't know.

[Sam Miller]

I want to read this. This is a good line from Michael Bowman in FanGraphs about Dylan Cease. Cease is both the best bat missing starter in the majors and the least injury prone starter in the majors. Aren't those the two most important attributes for a pitcher? Indeed they are. But get ready for the mother of all backhanded compliments. Cease is the worst case scenario for a pitcher who's the best in the world at the two most important things a pitcher needs to do.

[Andy McCullough]

That is brutal, but accurate.

[Grant Brisby]

Like, I'm gonna go back to 1998 in a news group argument, not all sports SF giants or something. All sports baseball SF giants. I still remember to this day I was arguing on behalf of Julian Tavares, who was one of the, maybe the prime pickup in the Matt Williams trade. Everyone overlooked Jeff Kent because they're like, this guy, future ace. And so he was struggling in the second year in the pen. People were calling for him to get out. People are calling for him to get traded. And I'm in the news group going, you know, teenagers. Yeah, he's got st. He's got stuff. Look at him pitch. He's got stuff. It moves. And he did have a sinker that for its time. Like you see these sinkers all the time now. At that time you didn't. So it's like, man, he's got stuff. And I still remember what the person responding to me said. They said stuff. It's just like. And then went on and like sort of explained it. But then it was, it was a real eye opening moment where it's like, yeah, stuff's cool. Can he prevent runs? Like, that's what we're actually trying to do. We're not, we're not trying to impress the East German judge, you know, by the best slider out of the zone. You're trying to get outs and you're trying to prevent runs.

[Andy McCullough]

And that man, that was Terry Ryan and that philosophy ran the Minnesota twins from the 90s to the early 2000s.

[Sam Miller]

So with modern analytics and with where teams are basically collectively on these issues, does Dylan Cease look better to the industry now than he would have 20 years ago, or does he look worse to the industry now than he does 20 years ago?

[Grant Brisby]

I mean, Honestly, it's not right to compare him to Darren Dreyford because he's had a lot more success to Darren Dreiffer or Gil Mesh or someone like that. But there have been these sort of, he's more successful in those guys version, but those guys were, we're paying for the stuff and hoping the run prevention catches up. And it didn't quite work out in either way. So I think he would have been interesting back then as well.

[Andy McCullough]

I think that the reason that a team signs Dylan Cease, which is probably not what they're going to say, is because he's healthy and reliable, because he takes the ball, because you want to talk up the stuff. You want to be like, this guy is an ace. You want, you know, all that sort of stuff. But the appeal is that he's a durable guy who posts, and that's hard to find, you know, and, you know, again, the ceiling is very high. Is he gonna reach it? You know, the evidence suggests no. But if you're taking. If you're. If you got a guy who takes care of himself, you know, who, like, as Dayton Moore would say, a clean liver, you know, like a guy. And not in the organ, but in, like, the way he lives his life, you know, like a guy who makes good decisions. A guy who takes is like, able to answer, able to post. Like, that's. That's very valuable, you know, but when you come out and say that people are gonna be like, you can't find guys like that in your own system. It's like, no, that's. That's a hard thing to develop. Right?

[Grant Brisby]

What you're describing is like the floor of Tim Wakefield with the ceiling of Ra Dick. I mean, I know that that's cantaloupes and kumquats, but I mean, it's like you've got. You've got like that floor of just this guy's gonna go out there and you're gonna get what you need from them in terms of innings and just showing up to the job site. And then you also have like a Cy Young caliber ceiling.

[Sam Miller]

I think that's a really good point, Andy. There's so much focus on Dylan Cease as a stuff monster, as a very polar, high ceiling guy. But if you look at the team that signed him, their priority in their rotation, well, really in their roster building over the last half decade has been having a very safe starting rotation. Guys who, you know, who show up 30 starts a year will give you good innings are not necessarily all Cy Young candidates. I don't want to downplay what Kevin Gosman was when they signed him. But basically they have had a bunch of veterans who have been healthy. And while we're talking about whether Dylan Cease is or is not Superman, they're like, check out Clark Kent over here. That's what we needed. We needed a guy who'll show up in glasses every day. And he is that. He will probably be healthy. He is not old. He does not have a recent injury past. And yeah, that's. I really like that reframing of it.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, I mean they just finished a contract with Chris Bassett. You know, where they paid him was three years, 63 million. You know, he. I'm looking at the numbers now. Yeah, I mean he had 540 innings with a 3, 8, 9 ERA, made 95 starts. Like, yep, that's all right. And then. And the. Yeah, the Blue Jays are a team who's willing to be like, that's what it costs, so we'll pay it.

[Sam Miller]

I think we had this conversation before the season. If you looked at like the top 10 starters for like innings over the past three years or five years or whatever, like three of the top seven were Blue Jays going into the last year. And Dylan Cease is there too. He fits with Jose Barrios in that sort of way too.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Starting a podcast or business can feel overwhelming. Schedules, logos and endless decisions. But the right tool can change everything for millions. That tool is Shopify. Shopify powers 10% of all US E commerce from Mattel to new brands just launching with templates for beautiful stores, AI tools for content and built in marketing. Shopify helps you sell smarter. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into. With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com TheAthletic Go to shopify.com TheAthLetic shopify.com TheAthLETic Dreaming of.

[Sam Miller]

Getting the all new iPhone 17 Pro designed to be the most powerful iPhone ever. Then stay in bed and let a Boost Mobile expert deliver and set it up for you. Oh actually they will have to get up and open the door. Oh right. Delivery available for select devices [e-mail] terms apply.

[Boost Mobile Ad Voice]

The holidays are coming and I've got a Boost Mobile gift just for you. Aww, for me, Anna? Yes Anna, you deserve a gift. The Boost Mobile unlimited plan is just $10 a month for the first two months. Then $25 a month forever with unlimited data, talk and text. It's a Gift. Thanks, Anna. Anytime, Anna.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

The holidays are here and the best gift is for you. Offer [e-mail] after your first two months, you'll pay $25 a month unless you go online or call to cancel. Requires autopay.

[Andy McCullough]

Sam, you had questions about the small market teams sort of pounding the drum about how they're going to be in the market for free agents.

[Sam Miller]

Fan Graphs has been tracking teams that say we tried on free agents that they miss. And the Marlins and the Pirates are like pre, pre trying. They're like saying, we, we're gonna try. And they haven't signed any of those players, so we don't know how seriously to take them. But they've been letting themselves get connected to players who have signed or who you wouldn't necessarily have thought, like Kyle Schwaber, one of them was linked to Kyle Schwaber or, you know, expressing interest. And they're saying they're going to spend money and why would they when they never do before? Well, one of the theories is that they are trying to get out of revenue sharing shame, debtors, prison, basically that like they're taking all this money from the revenue sharing program, they're not spending it. Eventually that catches up with you and the league, you know, scolds you or the union, you know, seeks an injunction or whatever the case may be. And that's particularly the case right now because with the upcoming CBA negotiations, the revenue sharing structure could change. And if teams like the Marlins and the Pirates are not showing good faith effort to compete, they have less of a claim for revenue sharing money and revenue sharing structure. So that is the theory. It was floated in an article by Evan Drelik and ken [e-mail] it was expanded upon by Mark Normandon at Baseball Prospectus. And it's a good theory. It's probably correct. But I want to ask you guys this. Do rich teams really want the poor teams spending the revenue? It seems to me that while the Dodgers and the Yankees and the Red Sox, et cetera, probably don't want to give money away, given that they've already given it away, why would they want the Marlins and the Pirates to spend that money? Like they're competing with these teams for free agents so the Marlins and the Pirates could bid up other free agents. They're competing with them for playoff spots. So the Marlins and the Pirates could theoretically take their precious playoff spot. They're competing with them even for things like, you know, exposure and like, you know, Sunday night baseball appearances. You kind of Want those teams to see stink and be terrible. So my theory that I'm floating here is that revenue sharing is basically a bribe to the Pirates and the Marlins to not be good. If the Marlins and Pirates had to be good to make money, they would go sign the players that the Dodgers want. If they don't have to be good to make money, they'll hang out, they'll take the revenue sharing checks, they'll post a couple quarterly profit, and then they won't have any interest in signing the good players. And when you think about it, is like, I mean, the Pirates get somewhere between like 50 and $100 million in revenue sharing. That's pretty cheap as a bribe. Like, if you're the Dodgers and you're spending $500 million on good players and you can throw another 50 million in there to basically take an entire team out of the playoff picture so that you never have to look at them again or worry about them, that feels like a pretty good deal. Like, I feel like the Dodgers, if they could, might bribe more teams into not trying to be good at baseball. Like, it's a good. It's a better investment than Michael Conforto.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah. Let me ask you a hypothetical. Let's say you had $15 million to spend, right. And you're a team that you're the Miami Marlins. Let's just say you're the Miami Marlins and you have $15 million to spend. And you could spend that money on, you know, refurbishing your big league clubhouse and your big league weight room and improving your facilities in the doctor and making hires to build out your analytics department and making hires to improve your international scouting and building up your infrastructure. Or you could sign Kirby Yates. Which do you think the Los Angeles Dodgers think is a better investment and would prefer you to do?

[Grant Brisby]

Sign Kirby Yates. I mean, that's.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, I guess they would. If it's specifically Kirby Yates and it's specifically, like, build up your, you know, your international scouting department. Like, if those are the choices, then yeah. But the Marlins often don't. They don't build up their international scouting department. They maybe do beef up their weight room. I don't think the Dodgers are too stressed about whether the Marlins, you know, build a nap room in the clubhouse. But mostly they don't. Mostly they. The money just goes, who knows? Like, we don't. No one. There's no accountability for it. And no one's paying attention to the Marlins anyway. They could have their own bribes. They could be bribing somebody else, using the Money for their own whatever.

[Andy McCullough]

I just want to make clear, I don't think anyone's bribing anyone.

[Grant Brisby]

I would like to be on the record with Andy. There is no criminal activity going on.

[Sam Miller]

It is the kind of bribery that is totally legal under late stage capitalism. No, no fraud. No fraud is suggested merely perverse incentives.

[Grant Brisby]

Got it. God. Okay. That I can buy. That I can buy. I could buy. The point is interesting where it's. Is it worth it for these big teams to kind of pay for a subclass of Washington Generals, you know, so that they can bring out the, the step ladder onto the basketball court for their games? Maybe, maybe. I don't, I'm confused by this whole landscape where you've got the Marlins and Pirates at least saying, you know, we're going to kick out some stuff. And then you've got as of now, three teams, Red Sox, Yankees and Giants, saying out loud, I don't know if we're going to spend those. We're kind of losing a little bit of money here. I'm like taking all this words a live market, you've got cease getting paid. You've got the Marlins and Pirates saying like, oh, you know, we'll, we'll finish second for a couple of guys. But I don't know what to read in this market because you've got the big hitters saying that they're going out. And if, if you've got the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and maybe others sitting the market out, that just makes the incentives better for teams like the Marlins and the, and the Pirates to just, you know, actually pretend like they're a real baseball organization.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah. I mean, especially if, again, if you feel like there's a plethora of guys of equal ability but sort of limited ceiling, you know, if there's not, you know, you don't have six Juan Sotos out there, you're just immediately out on. But like, you could sort of hope that the market for Ranger Suarez collapses and all of a sudden, you know, he's, he's on your team for, you know, 375 when, you know, it might have looked like he was going to get 6, 150 or some crazy number.

[Grant Brisby]

I don't know if they're going to be bargains, especially with the pitching found. I think maybe at the.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, there's never bargains on pitching. I'm an idiot.

[Sam Miller]

I do kind of believe that the Pirates and the Marlins would look around and say maybe we should try to get better. Like I'm, I'm not disputing. That they might actually like to try to spend a little money if the price is right. The Pirates particularly, like, they've got this. They've got this window with Paul Skeens. It's kind of humiliating that people are trying to trade Paul Skeens when He has like 1.2 years of service time. Like, that's. That is like genuinely humiliating. Like, that is the sort of stuff stain that I think sticks to you for like 40 years. And the Marlins have, you know, kind of a promising team. Oh, I also. And the Pirates also have a, you know, president of baseball operations who's on the hot seat, who, like everybody is a little bit surprised, hasn't been fired. So some action on, on their part would make sense. The Marlins have a team that, you know, like, kind of overperformed, is young, had some really good vibes last year, and has some easy, easily identifiable holes. So it wouldn't surprise me if they do actually go out and either sign some players or like, end up in, you know, we tried second place for them. So I don't dispute the premise there. It's more. I'm more questioning the secondary premise of whether the Dodgers want them to do that. When a team, usually when a team gets punished for failing to live up to their revenue share obligations, it's the players union that complains, right? The union gets mad because they're not using that revenue sharing money to, you know, to hire players and players and the owners are kind of enemies. So if the players are unhappy, it's hard for me to imagine that the owners are also unhappy. Like, whatever the players are hating, I would think that the other owners would.

[Andy McCullough]

I don't know if it's the Dodgers who are mad that they're not spending. I think the Dodgers are full on, you know, Don Draper in the elevator. They don't think about you at all. But, you know, like, look how Steinbrenner came out and said it's not fair to say the Yankees are profitable. You know, Tom Ricketts talked about biblical losses, you know, with the Cubs. I mean, all the big market teams are suddenly claiming that owning a baseball team is actually like, they should have just, you know, just played the stock market or whatever, just got, you know, gotten a fidelity account. So, you know, that might be stemming some of this. Like, hey, like, we're losing money too. You know, we say you guys should spend this. The point you made, Sam, there's good faith reasons for the Pirates and Marlins to spend, right? The Pirates, because they're all going to get fired if they, you know, basically don't look more competent. And the Marlins, because they overplayed their Pythag by Like5Games, which suggests that their sort of friskiness and energy, while very appealing and potentially a sign of a, of a building culture, probably needs to be backstopped by some guys you can rely upon. You know, it's not clear that Kyle Stowers is just a four win player. For example, like you could use, you could spend some money, you know, to just fortify that. And they can certainly afford it. You know, they have. They're not paying anyone besides, you know, Sandy Alcantara. So I have a theory on Kyle Schwaber. Real quick, please. Should the Pirates try and sell him. As you know, Kyle Schwarber's a man from Ohio. He went to Indiana places with famously sort of flat affects, but he's kind of assembling like the infinity stone of interesting regional dialects. Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and then maybe go downtown and Pittsburgh, try to hit one of the wounded sign with the Pirates. You know, I can't really do a Pittsburgh accent, but I just wanted to say downtown.

[Sam Miller]

I didn't know there was a Pittsburgh accent.

[Andy McCullough]

Oh, there's a. Yeah, there's a Pittsburgh accent.

[Grant Brisby]

Yeah, it's the yinzers, right?

[Andy McCullough]

The yinzers.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah.

[Andy McCullough]

Yeah, the Stellars look terrible. They got to get rid of Rogers. Look, I've been sitting around with an infant for two weeks, okay?

[Sam Miller]

You've been working on this theory a lot.

[Andy McCullough]

This kid, this kid's dialect is going to be so screwed up. He's just going to, he's like going to come out just talking like a crazy person.

[Grant Brisby]

Just start speaking Esperanto to you. Just like, let's just cut to the middleman. Let's get all the dialects out. I will say that if you're to lay out all 30 teams on a table and say, here's the ones who might benefit from some marginal wins from spending a little bit to move up, move up, move up. I think the Pirates are pretty high. I think the Marlins are pretty high on that list. Just because you can look and you can, you can say Paul Skeens, Mitch Keller, you've got Bubba Chandler coming up. And they can go on the other side and say with the Marlins, Alcantara, and you've got Kyle Sowers and you're building something here. Those are two teams that probably should spend money and probably. But there have been cases like that in each team's history throughout the last two decades. You could point at A team and say, ah, this is the year the Pirates had, you know, a chance in a window. They just don't. So let's stop predicting.

[Andy McCullough]

And every and every year people like us look at the free agent market and they identify someone and they identify a bad team and they say, Jason Worth contract. Do the Jason Worth contract. Like, this is the perfect. The Reds and Pete Alonso do the Jason Orth contract.

[Grant Brisby]

Yes, sir.

[Andy McCullough]

No, that's. No, it was, it's not a thing.

[Sam Miller]

We.

[Andy McCullough]

It happened one time. It sort of worked. It's not going to happen again.

[Sam Miller]

If I were advising the Pirates, I probably would not advise them to sign any players. Like, I would probably say, like, it's probably better for you to maybe, like, maybe you could change sports, for instance. That would be better for you. Like, I do not see them on the cusp of success. If I were advising Ben Charrington, I would say sign every player you can. Like, I'm surprised that there is not more conversation about, I'm going to say GM instead of. But why there isn't more conversation about what GMs personally need to do for the GM's job security. Because they are in a way like a gm. They're getting paid like many millions of dollars. They're more famous than several of the, you know, most of the players on their team. At this point you would think that their performance would be like, assumed to be somewhat self interested. Like not, not, not massively self interested. Because obviously like the whole point of the job is to, to, you know, subjugate the individual for the greater good. But you would think it'd be really tempting to think like, I'm not gonna be here in eight months if I don't do something and if I do something terrible, I'm not gonna be here in eight months. What do I care?

[Grant Brisby]

I've gotten the whiff of some of that philosophy in Preller and the Padres. I've gotten a whiff of like, yeah, this is bad. Guess who's gonna have to deal with it? Not me.

[Andy McCullough]

He's going gorilla mode.

[Sam Miller]

Yeah, like real, like uncut gems. Like just one last try to get rid of of all the, the previous things that I've done wrong sort of.

[Andy McCullough]

Thing over the years. In my conversations with guys who've been a GM and then were no longer been a gm. I think a thought that they have often expressed to me after they've been fired is this idea of, I wish I hadn't wavered from the course. I wish I hadn't done exactly what you Guys are saying. And to me, it's always interesting because I'm like, when did you. When did you do that? Like, it seemed like you just were kind of, you know, you were doing the thing the whole time and as the ship went down. But in their mind, that they deviate even just the smallest amount, and it's like, no, that's wrong. We shouldn't. That. I shouldn't have done that. I knew that was stupid. And at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter. Those sort of minor deviations. I just think that these guys who get into these jobs, they are generally financially secure. They, in general, can get work in the field doing something also, you know, financially remunerative if they get laid off. And they kind of just want to ride it out their way rather than sort of flail in the wind. And I don't know if that's right or wrong, but I just think that's the sort of personality type that helms a baseball team in the. In the 2000s.

[Grant Brisby]

Close the circle by giving me the poker hand that these GMs are mad about. So, like, when they're going back in their heads and go, I. I deviated from the course here. Were they not raising enough on a. On a pair of sevens? Like, what? And it ultimately ends up being mostly meaningless in the larger play.

[Andy McCullough]

When I was playing poker really seriously, like, you know, seven or eight years ago and, like, playing a lot, I would, like, be in a hand where, like, I bet, you know, a half pot on the river, and it's like, no, I should have bet, like, 3/4 pot. It makes it like, if you're playing poker for a living, that stuff really matters. But, you know, if you try and explain it to, you know, the fan, they're just like, what's the. What's the difference? You know, Win the next hand, too, dummy. It's like, yeah, you're right.

[Grant Brisby]

All right, this has been episode number 194. We're gonna be back on Friday. We're gonna do a little winner meetings preview. I guess that's all I have to tease. I mean, just Friday. Listen, listen. Or don't. I don't care anymore.

[Sam Miller]

You know what?

[Andy McCullough]

I think my baby's crying. I gotta go. Gotta go check on my son.

[Grant Brisby]

Oh, my gosh. This is much worse than the cat. All right, we will be back. Well, episode number 194. See you on Friday. Thanks.

[Andy McCullough]

I was very wrong.

[Sponsor/Ad Voice]

Starting a podcast or business can feel overwhelming. Schedules, logos, and endless decisions. But the right tool can change everything for millions. That tool is Shopify. Shopify powers 10% of all US E commerce from Mattel to new brands just launching. With templates for beautiful stores, AI tools for content and built in marketing, Shopify helps you sell smarter. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into With Shopify on your side, Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com TheAthletic go to shopify.com TheAthLetic shopify.com TheAthLETic with no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking. With Capital One, if he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends it's pretty much all he talks about in a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capitalone.com Bank Capital One NA Member FDIC this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.