← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
$1 Million Bitcoin Is Inevitable, April Will Be Explosive | Mike Alfred
00:47:51
Loading summary
Transcript80 lines
- [00:01]
Scott Melker
Breaking news. Bitcoin is going to a million dollars and there's nothing you can do to stop it. Not my words, but those of Mike Alfred. But I tend to agree with him and his quant. We're going to discuss that and more right now. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Allstreets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and gently smack that, like, button with the back of your middle finger. Don't know where I came up with that one, but here we are, and I can't take it back. As I said, bitcoin's going to a million bucks. Nothing you can do about it. I'm going to tell you why, because Mike Alfred had this tweet. It has to be true. Breaking several sources, confirming overnight that after a thorough analysis of bitcoin's fundamentals, a million dollars plus per coin is inevitable, with or without the IMF, Nation State, game theory, and SBR's haters in shambles. Can you reveal your sources?
- [01:06]
Mike Alfred
I actually think my assistant went in and deleted that one. I asked my assistant to go through and delete pretty much like 80% of all my tweets, particularly any tweets that have wine photos or steak. The wine photos always get stolen by the scammers on Instagram who were running a fake account with like 100,000 followers. They have all my wine bottles pictures up, but obviously deleting them like, within even five seconds doesn't work because they screen scrape every single one of my posts. So I think. I think that tweet's been deleted in part because I got so many requests for people to name sources and as, you know, like, a journalistic integrity. I never name my sources just because I think it's, you know, puts them at risk. Like, let's just say, hypothetically, I knew somebody inside of Coinbase, like deep inside of Coinbase. And let's just say, hypothetically, they were the relationship manager for the US Marshals, Right? And they knew for a fact that Coinbase was expanding the relationship to other parts of the US Government to buy more bitcoin. Do you think that if I name them that they would get to keep their job? At the end of the day, sources are only valuable if you don't get them killed.
- [02:13]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean, we also have sources saying that Coinbase is about to buy Deribit, which is the largest bitcoin futures platform on the planet. But I couldn't even get the guy from Coinbase way I had on the show yesterday to confirm it for me.
- [02:25]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, well, look, M A is a sensitive business. The good news, though, Scott, is that if people are thinking about M A right now, then it's not the end of the cycle because there's. We're just ramping up M A and that's because the rails have been laid through this regulatory clarity that we're finally getting. And so now people feel confident to do deals. You've got all this release of all of this pressure from litigation, regulation that now these companies can double down on doing M A. So I think we're at the beginning of a huge M A wave. Candidly, I think there's going to be a whole bunch of deals, some that are going to be really hard to predict in advance. I think we just saw the biggest deal in the history of crypto, announced the Ninja Trading deal quietly. I think that was yesterday.
- [03:10]
Scott Melker
Yeah.
- [03:10]
Mike Alfred
The day before. Like, like we're going to see some of the biggest deals ever and we're going to see a whole bunch of IPOs. I think core Weave, which is not a crypto player anymore, necessarily, but I think Core Weave is just one example of what's going to happen this year. Like, Core Weave is, in my view, a wildly overvalued data center operator. But, like, if they go, if they go out at where they're going to go out, valuation wise, it's. It's kind of bullish for the rest of the infrastructure sector. Like everybody who's building bitcoin mines, et cetera. I think you might have seen too, that Nydig just bought Crusoe Energies Bitcoin mining, anything. Nydig is scooping up mining assets very quietly and I'll probably try to do, you know, an IPO next year. So we're not going to see a top in. In crypto when this type of activity is going on. Like the, the kid analysts staring at the charts, you know, again, with no business experience, never built a business, never sat on a board, never done an M and A transaction. Like they're calling for the top. And in the meantime, like, serious operators are out, like starting a huge M and A process right now. So I think the top has been pushed out into 2026 and it's even possible that I'm wrong about that. And it's like early 2027. But either way, we're still mid cycle right now. It's like, pretty clear to me.
- [04:24]
Scott Melker
Are bitcoin miners just officially rebranded as data centers now?
- [04:28]
Mike Alfred
I mean, they should be. That's all they are, right? They're the good ones are, they're data center operators. And as you can see, the compute is somewhat fungible, right? So if you pull out your Asics and you plug in GPUs, you plug in Nvidia H1 hundreds, voila. Now you're an AI data center operator. The challenge and the bottleneck, and almost every hyperscaler has sort of admitted this now, is in the power capacity itself. And that's why everyone's trying to do nuclear deals. That's why everyone's trying to secure large scale sites. That's why Texas has become popular all of a sudden, because Texas had more excess renewables than any other area of the country. And so that sector, like, at least as it touches crypto right now, is very depressed. But it seems to me that like, that's just a temporary phenomenon. Sort of like. Like the price of bitcoin, right? Like the. Probably the fundamental price of bitcoin is probably 120k or something right now. Like if you just look at the imbalance between the likely supply demand over the next couple quarters and so like, will it get there tomorrow or next week? Probably not. But will it get there eventually? Very likely. I think the same thing will happen with the data center business.
- [05:36]
Scott Melker
I mean, we talked about young traders on Twitter with their lines that you have so much reverence for, but you do revere your quant, as we've talked about in the past. In your quant in December, 76.4% chance of the outcome that Bitcoin surpass 180,000 by March 21. Did you fire him?
- [05:54]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, poor kid. I mean, look, it's gonna be really hard to get an entry level job with AGI coming. It's gonna disrupt everything. I was able to find a much cheaper AI quant and the AI quant said we were gonna bottom out at about 76, 77k a month ago. So, yeah, much cheaper too. It's like $500 a month. So I moved to a subscription quant service. I fired the human quant. I don't know if the kid will be able to get another job now. I mean, it looks like 90 of all human jobs are going to be disrupted by some combination of AGI and humanoid robotics over the next three to five years. And so he may never come back from this. Here's the. The serious point in all of this though, is that nobody, absolutely nobody can predict the short term price, if that, that should be clear by now. There's a guy named Josh Mandel that many people are buzzing about who I like. Personally I think he's, I think he's a lot of fun. He's a good user of accent, makes some funny posts. He correctly predicted 84000 on like March 14th or mid March. I can't remember the exact date.
- [07:02]
Scott Melker
I did it many months ago.
- [07:04]
Mike Alfred
Right, yeah, he did it back when everybody was, was mostly bullish because it was post. Right. It was post election and early November or whatever and he, he predicted it while in advance and sold a bunch of calls and made a lot of money and so he's been revered now as like the, the new coming, you know, Oracle, you know, like this, the savior of the crypto space. And just like every single person that's come before, like he's going to make some really good calls and then he's going to make some that are way off. Everybody does. Because there's no such thing as predictable short term price action in crypto and in bitcoin like so nobody knows. Right? Including me. To the extent at which we make short term predictions it's all sport, it's all fun. If people don't understand that they need to make sure to, to learn that quickly. Right. And nobody should be making like lever trades or like options trades with short durations right around any sort of short term targets is a great way to lose money. All that said, I do think it's easier to model longer term pricing and while I don't know when we're going to be back at all time highs, I know that they're coming. I'm very confident that they're coming because bitcoin is systematically more scarce than the denominations that you buy bitcoin with. And so over time the bitcoin price is going to go up.
- [08:22]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [08:22]
Mike Alfred
And so my quant was wrong. Quant is fired again. I have a subscription quant service much cheaper. I'm not going to say the name of the company because I, I want to keep that alpha for myself. But look, nobody knows what's going to happen in the very short term.
- [08:38]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that that's an important point. I mean we have a slew of articles here. I just deleted one or two. But you could just go through any mainstream media. Bitcoin market could heat up as bitcoin price approaches 90k. Now's a really good time to buy bitcoin. I agree with that. This is from T. Rowe Price. And then there was another one that I just accidentally deleted that said bull trap Bitcoin to 90. But then bull trap and then back to whatever and it's literally my crystal ball's broken. I don't know about yours, but it's effectively impossible to make these short term bets. That said, long term, all I see is tailwinds, right. And I mean you just have these endless stories, as you kind of like joked, you know, it doesn't require a strategic bitcoin reserve or any of these things, but we're getting them. We're getting one in the United States. I think Oklahoma passed a strategic bitcoin reserve of sorts. Kentucky just protected the right to mine and run a node and self custody. I mean, it's pretty crazy when you zoom out all the bullish things that are happening. You can't imagine it's not going to eventually affect price.
- [09:40]
Christopher Inks
Yeah.
- [09:41]
Mike Alfred
And in the past, bitcoin rallied for no particular reason and rallied substantially a lot in a lot of cases for no particular reason. And now we actually have a lot of reasons for it to rally. So I think it's just a matter of time.
- [09:55]
Scott Melker
Right?
- [09:56]
Mike Alfred
I think, look, Q1 was largely disappointing to most people who follow the market closely. I think we thought some immediate follow through from the election and the regulatory clarity and the SBR and stuff would be helpful. And that's not what happened. Right. We topped out in January, right on the morning of the inauguration, like early in the morning, before most people were even awake. Tap 109. And then now we're at 87 right now we went as low as 77 though. So we've already seen a 10k bounce off the bottom. Microstrategy's up for the year and looking really strong again, leading the market quite a bit. But like, in order for there to be more participation, I think, you know, you do need to see some clarity around the tariffs, some geopolitical clarity. Like the macro stuff is definitely a drag in the very short term. And then you had the AI kind of prick of the bubble. Like to me this reminds me of like 97, 98. There were a couple of drawdowns in tech at that time, but we were headed towards like the massive blow off top bubble, which finally topped in March of, of 2000. But like we had two or three years ago when, you know, what's his name? Back at the time, the Fed, the Fed chair was talking about irrational exuberance. Alan Greenspan, right. He was talking about, yeah, irrational exuberance. And it was like he wasn't wrong. Eventually there was irrational exuberance, but you still had like a year or two or three years left. And I don't know if we have a year or two or three years left this time around, but I think we might have longer than the, the average market participant expects. And so I think to the, to your point, with all the positive catalysts now and with all the structural changes, we're laying the groundwork for like a much longer and maybe more sustainable run this time. So it's. So the cycle obviously doesn't look like previous cycles. Jeff Dorman was talking about this on LinkedIn, and I chimed in the other day, you know, he's saying this is like, you can be right about a lot of things and still not make any money. Like, to me, this is like the hardest crypto cycle that I've ever seen, where even if you, like me, at the very bottom or near the bottom, right, In January of 2023, we're saying, hey, you want to be long bitcoin and you just want to get long everything in bitcoin, like, even if you did that, it's been so painful between there and here that, like, even if you're up a lot, which you are, if you got long Bitcoin at 16, 20 or 25, or you added anywhere in those levels. And by the way, every macro guy at that time was telling you bitcoin, you remember this, they were telling you that bitcoin wasn't going to go to 100k, and they're telling you that, like, things were, there's going to be a credit crisis and a recession and you need to be conservative and buy bonds and stuff like that. They all deny it now, but I was there live. And, and so my point is like, look, even if you got that right, and I largely did, it's still been the most painful a crypto cycle that I've ever lived through, where you could be up and feel like you're down. And so I, I think that actually bodes well, paradoxically, because so many people have sort of capitulated on this cycle. There's so many people saying the cycle's over, it's not going to happen. But if you look objectively at the set of conditions, like we're just waiting for euphoria and liquidity to kind of flow back in to the market. I think some of that starts in April, when we have at least some initial clarity on the tariffs. And I think the dollar and yields, M2, some of these other factors will.
- [13:24]
Scott Melker
Confirm that bitcoin's move is kind of lagging global liquidity, as it does by multiple months, and that Sort of turned around three or four months ago. So we should start to see that actually I think file through the system. I mean in the meantime, I'm sure you saw this, but GameStop adopts policy to buy Bitcoin joining other companies. So GameStop is, after all that conjecture, adding Bitcoin to their treasury. Smart. We'd seen pictures of their CEO with Michael Saylor, of course, and their stocks was up 13 or 14% pre market last I checked. So obviously you still have that bitcoin news. Good marketing primary effect. I also don't know if you saw the interview with Sailor where he once again confirmed with Laura Shin that he's going to burn the. Burn the keys for his own personal Bitcoin. Not strategies when he dies, but a very. Talk about a guy who really, really believes. I think it was like 17,000 bitcoin was the message I read. But I haven't ever seen him say how much he had.
- [14:23]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I mean it's incredible what he's accomplished. And he keeps rolling out these new securities, these perpetual preferreds now. And so I was worried he was going to run out of Runway to buy bitcoin in the short term. And look, he did make a lot of buys in the 90s and over a hundred in large size because there was so much excitement about his securities at the end of last year and in particular in November and then he slowed down right when we actually pulled back. And I don't know if that's a feature or bug or whatever. And of course the kid analysts who have $5 are always critical that because they bought, they bought the absolute bottom and they sold the absolute top and Sailor didn't, you know, but like there, the reality is maybe it doesn't matter, right? Because if, if at the end of, at the end of this, if bitcoin's a million or 3 million or 5 million, then the only thing that matters is how much did you acquire, not what exact price did you acquire that matter. I think a lot of people get sort of distracted with the minutiae of like what specific price. And he did make a buy, I think. When was that? This week? Yeah, over the weekend. 84. Yeah, yeah, 84. He got the Josh Mandel, you know, number. So I, I think he's gonna live a lot longer too. I'm sure he has great doctors and great healthcare. Like he may, he may live 30 or 40 years. So this catalyst of burning the keys on like 17,000 bitcoin probably is not.
- [15:47]
Scott Melker
It's nothing anyway, so it's like a billion $1.5 billion something it's not, you know, it's a rounding error but it does show like the commitment to, to the network and community. Obviously you can never. People freak out and they're like how strategy burn their keys. He's not talking about the bitcoin owned by the company, but it just shows it's a tremendous commitment. And then obviously going back to GameStop, they're in a unique position where they have all this cash and kind of no underlying business. And they obviously benefited from the meme stock craze. But it does show what can happen when companies finally get orange peel. There's going to be a lot more.
- [16:25]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I was talking about this with a guy at a poker table last night and I was just saying like pretty much every company because I mentioned GameStop is. Oh that's interesting. So well, every company is going to do this because it's better than the alternative option. And then we got into the conversation of like what's the tipping point and at what point will it become kind of the normal thing to do versus right now? It's still exceptional. It's viewed as exceptional when a company comes out and says they do this. But I think within a few years it'll be much more commonplace. And you know, the price action helps. Right. If bitcoin goes up from here over the Next, call it 6, 9, 12 months, then it'll validate all of these so called early adopters on the corporate side who took the risk of doing it when they could have got an egg on their face and the price could correct. And so sometimes these things kind of, they're self reinforcing. Right. So like GameStop's coming in now is a little safer than it was a year ago. There's like clear accounting rules now. You don't have to deal with the intangible asset, you know, you know, process where you got to mark the, the bitcoin down on the balance sheet when it goes down but you can't mark it up. Right. So like that, that's been more or less fixed and so that, that's one thing that makes things a little bit clearer. But the biggest thing is just like safety in numbers. Right? So MicroStrategy was kind of. And now, now all these miners have done it and then you know, of course Tesla and SpaceX had done it years ago and even though they backed off of that view for a period of time, I think again partially because of pressure from China on Elon. Elon wants to market cars all over the world. And some governments are really, they're really adversarial with bitcoin. And so he had to pull back. And you use the excuse of the environmental impact of bitcoin mining, which is a total non sequitur in a sense, because bitcoin does the exact opposite of what he said. And of course, he's smart enough to understand that. So I'm not going to claim that Elon does not understand bitcoin. I think he does understand it, but he understands politics even better than maybe we thought. You look how involved he is in politics now. And so they backtracked a little bit, but then I think now it's become, again, normal. The US Government, the sitting president, is supportive of bitcoin. We have like a working group, right? We have a bunch of policies coming down the pike that are going to be positive. And so I think it's just a safer environment. Like, if I was on a board of a company that had a lot of liquidity, like billions of dollars like GameStop and wasn't deploying it for anything, I would basically resign unless they considered a policy like this. So I think, I think, I think we'll see more of this. Right. And I think GameStop provides some air cover for other companies that are not already, like, naturally inclined to. To do it. Right, because they're just kind of a generalist company that's pivoted and they became a meme stock. Some of these other companies, like you almost expect them to do it because they're kind of already tangentially in the bitcoin space.
- [19:25]
Scott Melker
What do you make of the underperformance of miners of late? I actually had a conversation with Frank Holmes from, from Hive, and he pointed to a lot of the miners adopting that strategy that MicroStrategy had taken as one of the reasons that their prices are likely depressed and obviously, you know, minor selling in general. But he seemed very frustrated that all the miners seem to travel together to some degree still, you know, without really differentiating the characteristics of each.
- [19:53]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I mean, there's been a little bit of dispersion this year, and actually up until mid February, there's a tremendous amount of dispersion. There were a couple miners that were up 30% when MicroStrategy was like flat or down, and there were a bunch of miners that were down substantially. That dispersion is coming back together a little bit, I think. Look, there's risk on and risk off periods in crypto and then within different parts of crypto and Mining has been in kind of a tough slog more or less since the having, like, it's actually been a rough year. Looking back one year from now for pretty much everybody in the sector. There are a few exceptions. But it's funny, the, the ones that ran the most at the end of last year, like Bit Deer and Core Scientific and HUD and Tara Wolf, a lot of those names actually started the year worse off and I think Bit tier is still down 50. So some of it's just like bean reversion and flows and some of it is like systematic trading. It's, it's an easy sector to short in an environment where like, it's unclear like, how profitable they're going to be across the full cycle. And so until bitcoin breaks into very clear, like parabolic price discovery, which, which I just still don't believe has happened, we've had like two parabolic moves, like one leading into the ETF approval and afterwards, right, where we kind of went from 40 to 73 and then another one where we kind of went from the 60s to 100. But nothing that was like more sustainable, nothing that seemed like it was like the train had left the station was out of control. Right. Like each case we hit some sort of top consolidated. And then the consolidations have been really painful, particularly last year's consolidation because, like, we spent the entire summer thinking that there was a breakout potentially imminent. And it didn't happen until November. Right. And so like for, from March till November, people were waiting for that. And so that's like a really ripe area for people to do pair trades on miners. Because until bitcoin really moves into an area where they're all very profitable, you know, it's been, it's been a good trade, candidly, to, to use them as a hedge against your long positions. So I think people have traded the, the micro, the long microstrategy or the short microstrategy long bitcoin trade that was popular with hedge funds like a year, year and a half ago that they got blown up in wrecked, they traded that in for the long bitcoin or long microstrategy short miners. And that'll also get them wrecked eventually, right? But like, it's a long cycle. The, the thesis always on the miners is you have to, you have to own them on the far end of the price curve, which I still think we're middle innings. When we do hit whatever the 90th percentile is of return, of return for bitcoin, they will go parabolic again. They just, it's, it's literally just math. It's just the math has not been supportive yet because we haven't seen prices high enough to generally support like beta for the entire space, like for the entire space to, to blossom. So you've had some idiosyncratic outperformance for short periods of time. You've had companies like Core Scientific go all in on AI and so then like their price kind of decouples in the short term. But even Core scientific was down 40 or 50% at the lows year to date for no particular reason. Right. Like there was some chatter about Core Weave losing contracts with Microsoft and concern about Core Weaves IPO which should price potentially this Friday. And so look, I think it's mostly short term stuff. It is incredibly frustrating if you're a shareholder or an operator in the space. But hopefully if you're an operator in the space you're taking a longer view. Right. Because nobody should be deploying billions of dollars in CapEx to, to be concerned about like what happens next month or next.
- [23:37]
Scott Melker
What's the average cost of mining a bitcoin right now? Yes. I don't know if they can be by a publicly traded company. Is that a metric that's tracked?
- [23:45]
Mike Alfred
Somebody might know the exact number. I only track it for the companies that I watch closely. But the energy cost for the top miners is in the very top, is in the high 20s, low 30s. Right. All in. So as long as price, as long as we see 150 or 200 this cycle, like the gross margins are going to go insane. And at some point these stocks historically have repriced in a single month. So like they could look totally depressed in April and by June or July they could be completely euphoric. To the point that you're having me on to explain the opposite which is how the hell did these stocks go up 5x in two months? Right? Like that's what happens. And it's really hard to predict when and it's very painful, especially if you use options or you have any sort of time limit. So I've always told people like if you're going to speculate in this space, like try to buy them when sentiment is like it is now. I remember we had this conversation in November two years ago, 2023 iron was at like $2 and 80 cents and I said if you're gonna buy this stock for this cycle, that's when you buy it. And it went from 280 to 15 and then back down to 6 and then back to 15 and now it's at 7. It's still higher than 280, but like it's nowhere near what I think the long term fundamental value is. That value will be unlocked when one of two things happens. One is the price of Bitcoin goes into true price discovery like a seemingly unstoppable move into the 120, 130, 150, 180 range, which again I still think is the most likely path sometime in the next year. And then the second thing is a large scale AI co location style deal which, you know, if I had to put my bet on it, I still think there are a number of companies including iron cipher, hut 8. There's a few others right. That, that are set up pretty nicely for that. And I think it's just a question of when those deals finally get inked. And there's been a lot of noise because of Stargate and Elon Musk and Sam Altman. There's a lot of drama around that. I think that in the very short term slowed down some of those deals that were already like in the hopper. But at some point later this spring, assuming that AI continues on the trajectory it is, the short term malaise in the AI sector will turn over, either of those two things happen and these stocks can go parabolic again. And so, so we're back sort of where we were in November 23rd. We're higher than we were in November 23rd for most of the stocks. But sentiment wise and valuation wise, we're kind of back in the same area. So I didn't think we'd get one more chance to buy these names at these prices and famous last words, right? Because people say that all the way down during the bear market, but assuming it isn't the bear market, then this will probably look pretty good some point later this year.
- [26:35]
Scott Melker
I just want to get that 150 out of the way. I'll take 120. You know, just.
- [26:40]
Mike Alfred
I want to open a bottle of Screaming eagle. I got two bottles. I got a 19 and a 21 Screaming Eagle. I also have 2018 Harlan, a couple of 2020 Harlans. I've been.
- [26:50]
Scott Melker
Are they saying for different, like benchmarks, like 110, 120, 130 psychological levels on the way up?
- [26:56]
Mike Alfred
Not, not specifically Scott, to be honest. But like I do want to freaking open one of those. It's so silly like, like we talk about Screaming Eagle like it's kind of a meme, but I've never freaking opened one. So like just give me A price that justifies opening a $3,000 bottle of wine.
- [27:12]
Scott Melker
Please, Mr. Market, I have a friend, I don't remember the context, it was like 15 years ago, but he sent me a video randomly at like 3:00 in the morning of him drinking like they were pouring like five bottles of Screaming Eagle into the Stanley cup and drinking it out of the Stanley cup at a bar. And I don't like, I don't, I can't remember the context, how they got the Stanley Cup. He was just like a dude I went to school with. It's not like he's a hockey player or professional and you know, he's not, certainly not popping five bottles of Screaming Eagle on a given day. But he had that video. That's what we do. If we, if we get to, let's.
- [27:46]
Mike Alfred
Make this call now. If, if I see you this year and Bitcoin is over 150, 000, I'm gonna call it now. We are gonna open a bottle of Screaming Eagle come high water. We're opening a bottle. Yeah, we don't, I don't, I don't want to drink it out of the Stanley Cup. I want to be able to see the wine through the glass. I want it in the right size glass so we can swirl and, and smell, take in the nose of it. Yeah, one of those big, big, big cabernet glasses. Maybe 30, 40 ounce glass. Yeah. So we're gonna do that when I see you. So like you guys heard it here first.
- [28:19]
Scott Melker
You can't go back on this. And we can't blame your quant.
- [28:22]
Mike Alfred
No, he's fine. He's fired. I mean my AI quant's better and.
- [28:26]
Scott Melker
Cheaper so they think we sound pretentious. But you know what, man? Sometimes you gotta just enjoy some of those finer things when they come around. Guys, give Mike a follow on X and don't listen to his quant. Otherwise I think all is good, man. Anything else I missed before I let you go?
- [28:43]
Mike Alfred
No, nothing else, man. Let's just, let's see the turnaround of the market in Q2. Q2 almost certainly will be better. If Q2 is worse than Q1, then, then maybe we're in a bare market.
- [28:52]
Scott Melker
So like, let's see this changes.
- [28:54]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, let's revisit this in May, June. If, if we're in May and June and like things got worse than they are now, then like I might have to, I might have to throw in the towel on this four year cycle and just say we were wrong. But I'm not giving up yet. As of this moment, I'm still adding. I'm not selling anything. I'm still adding.
- [29:11]
Scott Melker
I added $88,000 bitco. A dream to me, man. I don't know. That feels good.
- [29:18]
Mike Alfred
Yeah. Awesome. Cool.
- [29:19]
Scott Melker
All right, man. Thank you so much, guys. The amazing Mike Alfred. See you later, buddy.
- [29:23]
Mike Alfred
See you, bud.
- [29:25]
Scott Melker
Someone said CZ ate that banana. Literal fact. I think it was Justin Sun. It was Justin sun that ate that banana, guys. It wasn't Susie. Susie didn't eat the banana. He was actually in prison when Justin's son ate that banana. Before we move on, obviously guys going to tell you about aptos. Look, I've got a banner thingy. Where is it? Look at this. Look what I can do. It's like the DJ days. I can put things on the screen that scroll. It's pretty cool. It's pretty cool. But some incredible metrics obviously coming out of our favorite Wednesday sponsor, aptos. I don't know if you guys saw this, but they're smoking 130ms. An hour. World's fastest most productive ready blockchain for a reason. Absolutely smoking. Not close. What's crazy is that they've never had a security issue and mining blocks at like 1/6 of a second per block, absolutely insane. I can't wait to see people actually start using crypto blockchain because it's really finally ready for mainstream adoption. Now we just need the users to come in. Also here on our network xyz, an amazing APTOS mega mega issue. Telling you all of the things that are going on there. You can. Guys should check this out, but you can just scream through the charts. Number four blockchain by daily users. Total DEX volume of 13 billion. Number four blockchain by TVL and real world assets. I mean TVL ranging around a billion since the start of 2025. Total bridge volume in March, over 90 million so far. I mean, these guys are just smoking, continuing to build. Of course, when you take a look at anything in crypto that's not a meme or bitcoin, it seems like price is lagging. But fundamentally just incredible things happening. I think also just randomly. I have Avery Cheng, the CEO on Spaces on Friday, so that's worth checking out. And now without further ado, the man, the myth, the legend Christopher Inks here to talk about $87,000, 587,525 bitcoin. I called it 88, but of course, right here at 9:30am Eastern Standard Time every day, it seems to Get a diploma like as markets open every day. Yeah, it feels like it. I can't, I can't back that up. I'm not looking. But it feels like every day at the open of the stock market we see kind of like a dip for an hour.
- [31:43]
Christopher Inks
Well, you know, again, we've talked about it before at least isn't. You know, when I used to do these shows every day on my channel and you know, there at 10am every day my time would log in for a few months there and it was like it would just drop. It wasn't even like a dip, it would just drop. And it's just, man, what the heck, right? But anyway, yeah, so bitcoin, I mean, you know, again, this is the big picture and this is what I'm trying to get people to pay attention to. You know, again, you know, we hit this, the EQ here of this fair value gap here on the weekly, here's the monthly, you know, it's right there at the yearly pivot, just wicks below it. You know, we got the support every time we had the pullbacks here, here, here and now here we're finding the support on the weekly RSI right there around 44. So you know, there's just a ton of stuff going in on that that's just really not looking bad at all. If we jump here to the daily, I mean here, here's the big picture, the daily, you know, we're looking for an impulsive breakout. And close above this descending resistance with the daily candle, if we can get that, that should indicate that the low is in. We need to break out. Depending what chart you're looking at, this is the bitcoin all time index price index. But it's this candle here right about March 2nd that is the last lower high off this all time high here. So there's bearish market structure here. We just got to break out above. We just got to get a wick above it. If we can do that, that'll break that bearish market structure and it's even more confidence that the low is and it doesn't mean it can't hit it and pull back. But if we're breaking out above that right around 95, 000 depending on what chart you're looking at, it should indicate that we're most likely going to break out to a new all time high. And I know at this point, I mean, yeah, a lot of people want to hear it, but most people don't believe it. You know, they're, they're so Convinced that. That the top's in because everybody and their grandmother's been telling them that for, you know, months now. But I just. I don't see it there at the moment. You know, again, anything can. Anything can happen and whatnot. But for right now, I. I don't see any reason, you know, whatever. This right here, this pullback right here is not even as large as this pullback right here. And yet people have been screaming the tops in and whatever. It just. It makes. It makes. From a technical standpoint, it makes absolutely no sense. We haven't done anything to say. Yeah, the top's likely in, so, you know, everybody's got to be careful out there. You know, take what you're hearing with a grain of salt, even from me. But, you know, until I'm actually seeing something text some biggish movement down, which, again, this really isn't with this. With this cycle yet. Still just the. The second lowest drawdown. Until we're seeing that, it's like, what the heck are we even thinking right now Locally here? It's interesting locally here we are, and we are consolidating. You know what, Let me do something here. Let me get rid of this real quick.
- [34:45]
Scott Melker
See a lot of higher highs and higher lows there.
- [34:48]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah. It's not the best thing. It's not only. We really want to see some impulsiveness. This is overlapping, but it is higher highs and higher lows for now. Why is this not showing up? Sorry, give me just one more minute here. This is in my way.
- [35:05]
Scott Melker
The yellow circle blocking.
- [35:07]
Christopher Inks
There we go. All right.
- [35:08]
Scott Melker
Gone.
- [35:09]
Christopher Inks
I'm interested in this right here because this is. This is consolidation right right below there. I mean, this looks like it almost could be a triangle here. So you get an A, B, C, D, E. And if so, you know, we're looking for that breakout here. Based on the height of this pullback, that would have a target of around 90,282 and a half. But as part of maybe a bigger move here, you know, that could be an interior fourth wave here. And so we'd get here, we'd pull back, retest, and then head up higher, maybe even so right now I'm kind of looking at potentially this 93, 400 area as more of a local target if we can get a, you know, the impulsive breakout on that. So we, you know, we don't have bearish divergence here. So that's good. We like to see that we are above the. The weekly pivot here, right up into the R1 pretty aggressive move here. So aggressively moving through this and higher. Again, when you're using pivots, usually if we can get this means that we're going to run up here at the R4 or beyond the R5. So 98, 740 or even 102, 487. It's just the way that the pivots, you know, price, action and pivots tend to work. If you can get aggressive here between the pivot and the R1 and bust out through there aggressively, usually you're going to run that up here toward those upper two resistance pivots. So, I mean, the setups here, we'll see if we get it. There's a large low volume node here, as you can see, and that initial targets right in there. But again, overall, really not hating Bitcoin. If we get a breakdown below this, you know, this 76, 000 or whatever, you know, then maybe we're looking at 70,069 somewhere around there. But even that is not, you know, oh, my God, it's the end of the world. You know, it's. It's the tops in. So we'll see how this plays out. But right now I'm liking the congestion here. I'm liking the consolidation. You can see right here that the oscillator is consolidating as well. And usually if it's a triangle, for those that don't know, an Elliott wave triangle, it's the only real triangle out there because you know where it's going. But you know, you'll get the same consolidation here with the oscillator, with the rsi. So you got lower highs, higher lows in line with price here, lower highs, higher lows. And usually it's a really good indication that that's probably a triangle and you're going to break out.
- [37:43]
Scott Melker
So.
- [37:43]
Christopher Inks
So that's what I'm looking at there. Again, not hating it at all. Alts, alts, alts, alts. I've been talking about them for a bit here and you know, talk about the possibility from the very large time frames that we may be getting some kind of bottoming going on. A lot of them are starting to really look decent on that. Really pretty decent lower on that higher time frame. This is one that we've been watching there at the Academy. This is pirate USD. And again, you can. It's a pretty clear five waves up. We're on the daily here. The 618 retracement is right here around that monthly pivot. It doesn't mean it can't go lower if we break down through it. We'll look at the 78 a half at about 0.069, almost 0.07 cents here, and then the 78 six at 0.0637. But I'm really looking at this as a one and a two and I would love to see it stay. I mean, if we can get it to stay above here, that'll validate this ending diagonal type thing here with the throw under. So if we can get a rally off up here, all of a sudden we're looking maybe up here around 47 cents or so is the next kind of leg up from somewhere right around here. So we'll wait and see how it works out. But there was a nice move up off the low here. Now we're getting that pullback.
- [39:00]
Scott Melker
So see there and there. Never even heard a pirate. Don't know what that is.
- [39:05]
Christopher Inks
But you know, I, I don't know either. As I continue to say. It's, you know, most stuff's junk out there, but it's, it's tradable. And that, that's the thing, right? It doesn't have to be a legitimate project or, I mean, I'm not saying it's not, but I'm just saying these things we trade, they don't have to be, they just have to be tradable. You know, if you're trading them, people tend to get caught in them and then they make up excuses why they are legitimate and great companies and whatever, but it's just because they're holding the bag there. And that's not a good thing to be doge here locally. No, we're not talking about the government agency, we're talking about the coin here, the king of memes, the original meme, dogecoin. I'd like this breakout through this descending resistance we got. You can't see it right here, but there is a spike of volume there and a decent sized candle spread and closed above it. So I've got this move up here locally, potentially hitting around 20, 0.266 or even up here, 0.30 as my targets to the upside here. But again, when you're Joe, you know, when you're pulling it out here to the weekly, look how great that weekly looks. You get this great. This is amazing looking doji here, large, lower wick right at this support level or resistance level, you know, right here coming into that low volume node. I mean, it's just a great place to be. You can see that secondary target Puts us right above that yearly pivot. And then, you know, if we can get there, look for a pullback, and then boom with the breakout there. But this does appear to be, you know, abc. Abc. Abc. Maybe here. Or you might even be able to say it's. It's five up here with these little endings. Nonetheless, it's three higher highs and higher lows, Tom. So, you know, we're going to look at that as a leading diagonal. And so this looks pretty great here. Coming up on the weekly, there's no fair value gap here. We had this great weekly with the large tail there, so they should be able to eat on up through that, Moving up through there, but yeah, not, not hating doge here either.
- [41:13]
Scott Melker
CRVs seem to be another one. Yeah, they're looking kind of good. I mean, it's hard to say that at this point, but alts to me look like they're kind of bottoming and starting to really show some reversals. But. Yeah, go ahead.
- [41:23]
Mike Alfred
Sorry.
- [41:23]
Christopher Inks
Well, yeah, that's the thing, you know, you'll see them on the large time frames and you'll be worried about, oh, no, it's not happening, it's not happening. And after it's advanced a bit, then it'll look a lot cleaner and you'll be like, oh, I should have got in back there. But CRV here again, you know, had this great pullback, which you're going to see on a lot of them, where it kind of pulls back to these previous kind of support resistance levels. Right here in the low volume node, we got this move up. We got a target right around the weekly pivot just above it there at. Or I guess just below it. What? No, just above it. 0.8195. But if we jump in here, I think it's a 3D I want to look at here. Yeah, here we go. So we have this nice, this nice clean breakout here of this descending resistance we're trying to break out of this kind of descending channel here. It's kind of moved a little bit on me. We're back down there. I can't get a stick. Okay, anyway, so we did get the break out there. We pulled back, but it looks like it might have just cleared the way because here we are again running with it to pop up through there. So again, looking up there a bit higher toward almost 82 cents on this one. Don't ask me what this one does. Gno, let me see here.
- [42:35]
Scott Melker
Where is it? You don't you know what it does?
- [42:37]
Christopher Inks
I have no. I have no Good idea.
- [42:40]
Scott Melker
No idea. No idea. Sometimes the dad jokes just flow, and you don't even know they're gonna hit they man.
- [42:47]
Christopher Inks
I'll tell you. They just got to go, right? You got to try.
- [42:49]
Scott Melker
I can know. This chart looks like pretty good, but anyway, this one.
- [42:53]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, I mean, it looks to me like a pretty clean five waves up and three waves back into the yearly pivot here. You know, again, looks beautiful with it. Another kind of doji here is we're seeing on lots of them on the weeklies. We talked about it a few weeks back when it was happening, but. Yeah, so for me, initial target, kind of looking at. Look at this rally here, especially if we can break out through that resistance up at around $260 or so. 705 is my initial kind of like low target. But even locally here, I mean, I think it looks great. If we can get a. What is this? A weekly close above this swing low here, 140.94. We can get a weekly close above that. That should indicate that that low is likely in there. Gives us a target of this descending resistance again, right around 250, 260, somewhere in there, depending how long it takes to get up there. And then, you know, again, the breakout through this descending resistance should indicate, you know, add confidence to the idea that the lows in and we're heading up and finally we've got mogul get mogged, I guess.
- [44:07]
Mike Alfred
Right?
- [44:07]
Scott Melker
I'm no joke for that one. I was gonna think of something, but it was too dumb.
- [44:11]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, no, I. I said something dumb there.
- [44:13]
Scott Melker
So I'm gonna go right with GNO and leave it at that one. And.
- [44:19]
Christopher Inks
This one hit the. The yearly S2 pivot here. Got this nice doji large lower wick move up. And then we've got the breakout here. So let's kind of zoom in a bit Again. We've got this descending resistance that we've kind of pulled out. And so I think, to me, it looks like we'll probably at least locally hit up to this whole bunch of zeros and 1, 1, 2. That's right there around that R1 pivot. And a lot of these, if you put these traditional pivots on there. So you just go up to indicators and type in PIV and pull up pivots and just click it on there. The traditional pivots. A lot of these on the. We'll head up toward this R1 pivot, I think is. Is where their kind of target area is looking like. So that's up there again. About that 1 1, 2 area doesn't mean it jumps right there from here right now. But if we can continue to get this push higher, it start to look pretty good. You can see right here we're hitting this again, this kind of support resistance level here. So we want to close out above that to continue that move up higher. But the opportunity looks like it's there. You know, could be like a 1, 2, 12 here, which would give us a nice large 3 on a breakout. So again, you know, a lot of these, I picked these because a lot of the different alts are looking similar to these particular structures. So you know, if your watchers, your viewers want to go out there and, and kind of look at their own, you know, alts and say, are they looking kind of like this? Then this is similar, you know, expectation as far as movement goes.
- [45:48]
Scott Melker
I, I just had an alert go off on one that looks a lot like the Doge chart you showed.
- [45:52]
Christopher Inks
What's your gf?
- [45:53]
Scott Melker
Let me, let me, I gotta remove you there, sui.
- [45:57]
Christopher Inks
Oh yeah, look at that.
- [45:59]
Scott Melker
Yeah, there's an impulsive break out of one of those patterns. Hopefully maybe a little higher, but that looks kind of nice.
- [46:05]
Christopher Inks
I like the candle so far. I want to see the volume pick up a bit more. But you know, it's always for those, for those watching that don't know. When I say impulsive, what I mean is a large ish kind of candle.
- [46:17]
Scott Melker
Spread on increasing volume.
- [46:20]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, well, really on a spike of volume, if we can get it through a significant level like a pivot or a horizontal or even a diagonal, long term diagonal, it's that, it's that volume that comes with that, that big candle spread and the close above that really kind of signals, okay, demand is there. And that's really what we're looking at because other times you'll get these breakouts and they may or may not work. They're smaller candle spreads or maybe larger can of spreads with smaller volume and they get kind of iffy. But if you can get the two together, when you get through a major resistance area that, you know, that's what you're looking for, that should hold that support usually at that point.
- [46:54]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I have said it so many times, so just whatever. But kind of feels like could happen, could happen. Always be careful, Always be careful with these alt points, guys. It's like.
- [47:05]
Christopher Inks
That's right, that's right. And remember, tops and bottoms are ranges. They're, they're things that just happen over time. The highest and lowest points are just events. They're just events. They're not important. So.
- [47:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah, man, there's some of these look good. All right, well, we'll get to them next time. All right, Chris, man. Everybody give. Texas West Capital. TX West Capital. Follow on X. Check out the group. All the things I gotta run. That's all we got for you today. Thanks, Chris. A pleasure as always. Take care, everyone. Let's go. That's dope.