Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: $1 TRILLION In Bitcoin & Crypto Lost As Bear Market Fears Mount!
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: David Duong (Coinbase, Head of Investment Research)
Release Date: November 20, 2025

Episode Overview

Scott Melker welcomes David Duong from Coinbase to discuss the highly volatile crypto markets, focusing on Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, amidst a sharp $1 trillion drop in global crypto market capitalization. The episode provides rich analysis of current macro headwinds and tailwinds, institutional attitudes, ETF developments, regulatory progress, and catalysts that could drive the next market move. This conversation aims to untangle the confusion and polarized opinions reigning in the crypto community as many debate whether we’re in a regular bullish retrace or at the start of a severe bear market.

Key Topics and Insights

1. The State of the Crypto Market After a Massive Drawdown

• Bitcoin’s Position:
  • Bitcoin market cap peaked at $4.3T with the broader crypto market now at $3.2T, losing $1T+ in market cap. (00:01)
  • Price is at ~$91K, recently dipping to a low near $88.6K—levels watched as buying opportunities. (01:31)
  • Altcoins have generally underperformed compared to Bitcoin. (01:31)
• Institutional Dynamics & Liquidity:
  • Bitcoin is benefitting from “exceptionalism” due to institutional inflows, where altcoins lack comparable liquidity. (02:12)
  • Many institutions have done 'homework' but are still on the sidelines, ready to deploy capital into Bitcoin once liquidity improves. (02:12)

2. Macro Factors and Federal Reserve Impact

• FOMC and Rate Cuts:
  • Recent FOMC meeting shows an increasingly divided outlook; odds of a December rate cut on prediction markets have fallen below 50%. (01:05)
  • David expects the Fed to potentially cut rates in December and again into early 2026, but real conviction in this view has waned. (03:00, 07:45)
  • “Bull markets are slaughtered by the Fed.” (David quoting an old Wall Street saying) (06:00)
• Market Positioning:
  • There’s significant division among market participants: is this a typical bull market retrace or is the cycle already over?
  • Breakdown of support levels, such as the 50-week moving average (never before broken in a BTC bull market); this has stoked debate. (03:57)

3. Emotional Market Sentiment and ‘Normie’ Attention

• Mainstream Media Coverage:
  • The Economist published a critical article, sparking mainstream attention and soul-searching inside the crypto community. (09:10)
  • Debate about Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier:
    • “What that diversification means precisely, is a moment like this where, yeah, other things might be going up, Bitcoin’s going down, but when those things are going down, Bitcoin’s going up.”—David (10:30)
  • Scott likens The Economist headlines to a contrary market indicator, i.e., often coinciding with market tops or bottoms. (12:20)

4. On-Chain Data and Whale Activity

• Accumulation Patterns:
  • Large Bitcoin holders (“whales”) have been accumulating coins at recent lows. (12:28)
  • The number of entities with over 1,000 BTC has surged, indicating strong hands are accumulating as weaker hands sell. (12:28)
  • “If it’s uncomfortable for you, then that’s probably a good sign.”—David (13:10)

5. Altcoins, ETFs, and Treasury Companies

• Altcoin ETF Progress:
  • Launch of Solana staking ETFs and Ethereum ETFs focused on staking, as well as strong inflows into altcoin ETFs even in a bearish environment. (23:37)
  • BlackRock and Fidelity have launched new staking-focused products. (23:37)
  • SEC has expedited approval windows for altcoin ETFs (from 240 days down to 75 days). (24:32)
• Altcoin Performance:
  • Likely inflows are retail-dominated at first, but institutional participation is expected to grow as more hedging instruments become available. (29:47-31:01)
• Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Companies:
  • Market transitioning from “DAT 1.0” (pure accumulation) to “DAT 2.0” (active financial management, risk hedging, and trading akin to commodity houses). (15:33)
  • Previous wave saw some treasury companies caught out by market declines and unable to act; only the most sophisticated (e.g. Saylor, Tom Lee) have continued to accumulate strategically. (16:44)
• Mergers, Acquisitions, and Consolidation:
  • Industry is entering a consolidation phase, with “the pros separating from the amateurs.” (16:44)

6. Deleveraging and Industry Health Post-Liquidation

• Major Liquidation Event (Oct 10):
  • October 10th was a “brutal” deleveraging event, mostly affecting retail traders but with broader consequences. (18:55)
  • Some DeFi platforms (e.g., Stream Finance) and other lesser-known players have shown signs of distress, but the bulk of speculative froth has now been washed out. (19:25)
  • Open interest in perp and options is much lower now, suggesting reduced risk and healthier market structure. (19:25)

7. Regulation and the Next Big Catalyst

• US Legislation:
  • Progress on the Clarity Act and market structure bills is occurring faster than expected, benefitting from the US government shutdown, which gave lawmakers time for crypto-related legislation. (21:10)
  • David is optimistic about the chances for regulatory clarity and sees the CFTC likely becoming crypto’s main regulator. (23:07)
  • Such regulatory clarity is expected to benefit tokens more likely to be classified as commodities. (23:07)

8. Institutional vs. Retail Involvement in New Crypto Products

• Yield Strategies:
  • Institutions are increasingly interested in using their Bitcoin/ETH holdings for yield (lending, DeFi participation). (28:01)
• Interest in Exotic/Privacy Coins:
  • Privacy themes (e.g., Zcash) are on institutional radars, with future EU regulations being a concern. (28:01)

9. Market Cycles and Looking Toward 2026

• On Breaking the Four-Year Cycle:
  • David is increasingly skeptical of the traditional four-year crypto cycle as macro and institutional factors outweigh miner cycles and old patterns. (31:27)
  • The market will depend more on global liquidity, US Fed policy, and new growth sectors like privacy, prediction markets, gaming, and tokenized equities. (31:27-34:00)
  • 2026 could bring more innovation and catalysts beyond mere price action, with more institutional and thematic growth. (31:27)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Confusion and Division:

  “I don’t think I’ve ever seen people this confused and divided…when people are confused and divided I just call David from Coinbase to come on and tell us what’s going on.”
  — Scott Melker (00:01)

• On Bitcoin’s Diversification Value:

  “What that diversification means precisely, is a moment like this where, yeah, other things might be going up, Bitcoin’s going down, but when those things are going down, Bitcoin’s going up. That’s what it means to diversify your portfolio.”
  — David Duong (10:30)

• On The Economist Article Signal:

  “When something ends up generally on the cover of the Economist…that generally means that is either the top or the bottom.”
  — David Duong (11:37)

• On Institutional ETF Flows:

  “Until those 13F filings come out, I would say we’re just kind of guessing…Probably more retail than institutions, but I don’t think that’s going to be forever.”
  — David Duong (30:06)

• On Evolution of DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries):

  “I think DAT 2.0 will look a lot like the analogs in traditional finance…Companies that treat crypto and block space as an asset for their business.”
  — David Duong (15:33)

• On Market Cycles:

  “My view…is that the four-year cycle doesn’t necessarily lend itself very well to the current environment…[now] a lot of demand comes from institutions like ETFs or DATs…”
  — David Duong (31:27)

• On Signs of a Bottom:

  “If it’s uncomfortable for you, then that’s probably a good sign. Smart money is definitely trying to buy back into this at better levels.”
  — David Duong (13:10)

Useful Timestamps

• Market Recap & Sentiment: 00:01–02:12
• Liquidity, Institutions, and Bull Market Anatomy: 02:12–03:57
• Macro/Federal Reserve Rates, FOMC Impact: 03:57–09:10
• Mainstream Media and Sentiment (The Economist): 09:10–12:20
• On-Chain Data and Whale Accumulation: 12:28–13:10
• Treasury Companies, DATs Evolution: 14:13–16:44
• Deleveraging Event/Market Washout: 18:55–20:49
• Regulatory Catalysts (Clarity Act, CFTC): 21:10–23:37
• ETFs, Staking Products, SEC Developments: 23:37–25:59
• Institutional vs. Retail Flows: 29:47–31:01
• 2026 Outlook, Four-Year Cycle Debate: 31:01–34:00

Conclusion

This episode delivers an in-depth macro and micro breakdown of the crypto market after a historic drawdown. Both Scott and David present a realistic—yet measuredly optimistic—assessment, highlighting that institutional capital, progressive regulation, and new financial instruments remain key to the next phase of crypto growth. Despite the confusing signals and emotionally charged narratives, the fundamentals of innovation and long-term institutional adoption remain intact. Expect more comprehensive analysis and potential catalysts as regulatory and product landscapes evolve rapidly through 2026.