The Wolf Of All Streets | $1,000,000 Bitcoin & The Death Of The 4-Year Cycle

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Arthur Hayes (Co-Founder of BitMEX), Allan Marshall (CEO of Upexi)
Release Date: October 12, 2025

Episode Overview

In this thought-provoking episode, Scott Melker hosts Arthur Hayes and Allan Marshall to dissect the evolving landscape of digital asset treasury companies (DATs), the possible death of Bitcoin’s famed four-year cycle, and why fiat liquidity might be what truly drives the next crypto supercycle. The discussion deeply explores the sustainability and risks facing treasury companies on Bitcoin and Solana, market cycles, macroeconomic drivers, and the ultimate question: is million-dollar Bitcoin actually on the table?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Death of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

• Arthur’s Thesis: The classic four-year cycle isn’t relevant anymore. Instead, cycles are driven by US and Chinese monetary policy (28:47).
  • “There have been three four year cycles and there’s very good reasons for them all center around US and Chinese monetary policy. ... It’s really about fiat liquidity between the US and China.” — Arthur Hayes (28:53)
• Supercycle Math: Massive monetary expansion – not halvings – will dictate the next big move.
• Political Promises: Governments are promising everything to everyone, with no intention to tax, which means “just all about printed money.” (29:41)
• Debasement Trade: Institutions from JP Morgan to Paul Tudor Jones and Ken Griffin are converging on Bitcoin, gold, and risk assets as a hedge against fiat debasement (30:36).

2. Digital Asset Treasury Companies – Boon or Bubble?

• The market is oversaturated with Bitcoin DATs, most chasing MicroStrategy’s playbook but lacking its scale, volume, or strategic advantage (03:33).
• Trading Volumes Matter:
  • “If they raise $500 million tomorrow, nobody cares, right? So they have to do billions at a time, but they’re the king of it. And volume is going to be in those leader[s].” — Allan Marshall (05:43)
• Solana’s Appeal: For new DATs, Solana offers diversified revenue (via staking), discounted tokens from bankruptcies (FTX), and less competition.
  • “With Solana, the staking revenue and the way you can compound that… never mind the availability to buy discounted locked SOL from the FTX bankruptcy … So every month you get that adding onto your balance sheet and that 8% staking revenue really runs the company, leaves us profit.” — Allan Marshall (06:24)
• Arthur on Investing in Solana DATs: Backed management over tech narrative, and yield driven, not a “Solana maxi” (08:29).

3. DATs: Hidden Hedge Funds?

• Many firms are “just hedge funds with better marketing,” selling puts and dabbling in risky derivatives to juice returns (12:22).
  • “A lot of people are selling puts to generate extra yield…going in the OTC markets and start selling puts…I don’t know where these strike prices are, but there’s going to be a lot of people who are going to have to come up with a lot of cash at a particular level in a bear market.” — Arthur Hayes (11:15)
• High risk for blowups as firms overleverage or obfuscate true risk, especially as retail investors pile in.

4. Survival and Shakeout: What Happens in a Bear?

• Acquisition Season or Zombie DATs? When the tide goes out, only a few leaders survive; others become “zombies” with shell value ripe for legal-savvy distressed investors (15:49).
  • “You’re going to have a bunch of zombie small ass companies ... There’s going to be some awesome opportunities for assets that people like me are not going to get involved in … But there’s people who, this is what they do, right? Like Elliott [Management].” — Arthur Hayes (16:17)
• Hard to justify paying a premium if you can buy the same tokens in the open market at a discount—mergers will be rare.
• If acquisition and relisting fail, they become shells for reverse mergers or are liquidated, with retail left holding the bag (20:01).

5. Systemic Risk to Crypto?

• DATs’ failures may signal market bottoms (as with previous blowups: FTX, Luna), but core blockchains "work regardless of price" (21:32).
  • “Who cares if the price goes down 99% as long as the blocks keep getting validated.” — Arthur Hayes (22:23)
• No central authority—crypto survives, even if some players disappear.

6. Wall Street’s Encroachment & Passive Flows

• The big shift: Index inclusion, retirement accounts, and passive flows could break the cycles, bringing sustained demand and major liquidity (39:42).
• Premiums Justified: DATs with yield (staking, locked token discounts) can outperform ETFs and tokens if well managed; transparency is crucial (45:29).
• Risk: Many founders can’t even calculate MNAV properly (48:13).

7. Macro, Politics, and the Road to $1M BTC

• It all comes down to printing—“Tell me how much money you think XYZ policy will print, I’ll tell you what Bitcoin’s going to be” (51:47).
  • “Stop thinking about the price of Bitcoin and start worrying about how much money they’re going to print.” — Arthur Hayes (51:47)
• If passive capital and 401k money flow into crypto, with banks greenlighted to allocate 2–4%, “bitcoin and all of them go up until people stop buying them.” — Allan Marshall (50:14)
• Potential upside targets for this cycle: $1M BTC, $10K ETH, $500 SOL — numbers are only limited by central bank printing appetites.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the end of the four-year cycle:
  “It’s really about fiat liquidity between the US and China. ... So I don’t think the four-year cycle applies in this particular instance, mainly because nobody knows what the world order is going to look like.”
  — Arthur Hayes (29:00)

• On treasury company risk:
  “A lot of people are selling puts … going to have to come up with a lot of cash at a particular level in a bear market. And that could be the end of a lot of DAT companies.”
  — Arthur Hayes (11:15)

• On crypto’s resilience:
  “Who cares if the price goes down 99% as long as the blocks keep getting validated.”
  — Arthur Hayes (22:23)

• On what drives the next crypto leg:
  “Bitcoin and gold for that matter are basically telling us the future is more fiat debasement. ... I’m long. It’s long and strong.”
  — Arthur Hayes (30:22)

• On politics & regulation:
  “It’ll take them six months to change something because they’re so stupid. And it will take a good business person, like, six hours to figure out a way around it.”
  — Allan Marshall (38:49)

• On new market paradigms:
  “Every cycle is different…show me right now where is it? ... I don’t think it’s going to be, you know, throw a dart at the wall and XYZ token is going to do well.”
  — Arthur Hayes (41:07)

Important Timestamps

• Liquidity, not halving, drives cycles:
  00:49 | 28:47 | 29:00
• DAT market saturation and risks:
  03:33 | 11:15 | 12:22
• Solana’s thesis for DATs:
  06:24 | 07:28
• Acquisitions and DAT collapse scenarios:
  15:49 | 20:01
• Passive flows and Wall Street’s impact:
  39:39 | 40:06
• Premiums justified in DATs:
  45:29
• Macro: Debasement and million-dollar bitcoin:
  30:36 | 51:38
• Market signals for cycle tops/bottoms:
  21:32 | 34:33

Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is frank, often irreverent, and rich with both Wall Street and crypto-native skepticism. The guests convey urgency about the scale of monetary debasement—and the potentially extraordinary impact on digital assets—while making clear-eyed warnings about the risks and gamesmanship rampant in the current DAT landscape. Both champion transparency, good management, and actively reject speculative excess for the sake of yield-chasing or headline-grabbing.

If you want to understand why the next cycle’s drivers are different—not about halving calendars but global liquidity—and what that could mean for both blue-chip crypto and the teeming DAT sector, this episode is an essential listen.

End of summary.