← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
$123,000 Bitcoin🔥! Will The Fed Turn The Printer On 🖨💴? | Macro Monday
01:02:38
Loading summary
Transcript109 lines
- [00:01]
Dave Weisberger
Bitcoin hit another all time high. $123,000 in the midst of a macro pump across the board and rumors that Fed Chairman Powell may resign and the money printer may come back on faster than many anticipated. Crazy bull market happening. Altcoins generally keeping up with bitcoin, if not outperforming. What is going on? We've got the entire boy band back together for the first time in many months. Myself, Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone and James Lavish could not be more excited for macro Monday. Let's go.
- [00:42]
Scott Melker
Let's do.
- [00:56]
Dave Weisberger
The everything. Pump seems to continue reminding us that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Let's bring everybody on. James, I haven't seen your face in months.
- [01:07]
Mike McGlone
Mike.
- [01:09]
Dave Weisberger
Dave. James, you left us for a while, but then every time you were here I was gone. I don't know.
- [01:14]
James Lavish
We're all back, we're ready, that's what.
- [01:16]
Dave Weisberger
And that's what matters here. And we're all back to celebrate. 123,000 dollar Bitcoin. To be, to be uber specific, at this moment we're trading at an extremely low and obviously disappointing price of 121,845, you know, less than 1% off the high. But obviously, listen, bitcoin continuing to push, make all time highs. We have treasury companies buying at a tremendous clip. We're seeing record inflows into the ETFs. I think the demand is undeniable. I think let's just start with the morning meeting as we usually do and then we can, we can dive right in here. Mike, how are you guys viewing this? Because obviously, as I said, you look at the metrics, maybe this is a bit irrational that we're continuing up in the face of world wars and all of the other things that seem to be happening. The market is shrugging off.
- [02:04]
Mike McGlone
Well, first I'm bowing in your general direction and markets can be very humbling. So I'm very humbled by this rally in bitcoin. It's a wonderful thing that risk assets are going up in this environment. This is a question how long? And it is July. I'm in the heartland this week, taking some time off and visiting family and kicking some dirt. Always checking out crops myself. But the bottom line from the morning meaning is Anna Wong came on and she had some good quotes this morning. She expects core CPI at 1/10. They're below estimates and expects year over year around 2.8%. So they're really below consensus. They think a lot. She thinks a lot. Of the tariffs have already been factored in has already happened. Retail sales expects to show a bit of a full pullback. So she's still looking at this as a bit of a contraction. Expecting flat retail sales nominal basis to be up. That's something I focused on a while is minus out inflation. Retail sales hasn't been so great. Jillian Wolf sat in for Gina Martin Adams. Jillian Wolf's our global equity strategist pointed out stocks are holding up well but the risks of broader rotation falling apart. She focused on the US stock market. Premium is still too high. Right now it's about 40% for the rest of the world at the end of last year to peak this year is around 50% and their model said it should be more appropriate between 15 and 20% and expects it to be going that there. So they're looking at this as a little bit more of a short term recovery in risk assets in the U.S. her quote was analysts are dropping earning estimates outside of tech. She actually expects earnings estimates earnings to show contraction by the end of this year which is a bit alarming. Ira Jersey, our chief interest rate strategist point out there's solid demand in these bond auctions. Contrary to what we've heard about the US getting out of bonds. His quote was the auctions have gained a lot more attention. He's seen a lot seemingly not less foreign demand but more foreign demand and really significant demand from US duration domestic types. He says the 30 years recently saw the most direct demand ever which is mostly domestic domestic investment funds, primary dealers, lots of buying duration. Auditor Audrey Trill chilled Freeman who's our equities I'm sorry FX strategist focused on she's still looking for a bounce in the dollar but no catalyst looking waiting for that catalyst. The flows still are dollar negative. Pointing out tariffs, Powell uncertainty. Trump Powell. Trump going at Powell is quite significantly negative for the dollar. And then I focus on commodities. The headline I wanted to feature this morning I did was stuff from Bloomberg New Energy Finance latest was EVs take charge in China. It's just a overwhelming revolution. What's happening? We're in a paradigm shift. What's happening in terms of commodities being replaced by technology most notably in petroleum crude oil less so, maybe a little bit natural gas. But still I still see major pressure forces on crude oil. The key thing I wanted to point out I published today is this massive money slide pump pumping which Dave and and James and you've pointed out in China. Right now China is running about 45 trillion money. So I would just double the US massive money supply. Despite that there's PPI is minus 3.6% and we're seeing that pressure on iron ore and crude oil. And it's just a matter of time that US copper falls a global pressure heading lower. So I looked at I just ended with stuff I just pointed out well why you know, why buy gold in an environment when bitcoin's on a tear and stock market's on a tear and interest rates are high but yet they still are. Gold's hanging in there. Central banks are buying ETF. Buyers are trying to curtail the 91 million ounces but they're still up a lot on the year. And then I also ended off with copper to me is the main that that I still I pointed out how the US risks a similar pump that we had at this time of year in 2008 with crude oil and and US unleaded gas. And right now the price of copper on a global basis is around $9,500 a ton and the US has $12,000. It's never been a disparity. So the risk is the US just follows the rest of the world and follows China. And I don't don't see how this the rest of the world facing tariffs which have been emboldened and will completely be emboldened by the rising stock market with so to me the tilt towards commodities is still towards lower and then I see the grains are just oversupplied. Back to you.
- [06:37]
Dave Weisberger
You're literally seeing the grains in person this weekend, this week?
- [06:40]
Mike McGlone
Oh yeah. Well I'm originally from here. I actually own the farm. I've been a real commodity guy 35 years. Well that's the key thing and remember thing about grains is they're the most elastic of all commodities. You can bring in that supply in a year. So I always use it obviously as my foundation kicking dirt. I'm not really a mind guy. I just learned that from other people. Yeah. So out here. But again you can get a lot of data from not being here. But it's kicking the dirt helps and talking the actual producers helps.
- [07:05]
Scott Melker
So could I jump on one thing that Mike said before we get into the rest of it? I think that that's kind of important. So I want to connect a couple of dots. Last week you had Yago Eden Yago on and and while he made lots of really good points, one of the things he said which I think is exceedingly important that a large part of the quote supply the selling was likely from Chinese Miners. Now, why does this matter? Well, as bitcoin get, you know, has now passed 100 and is moving towards the next big figure and Chinese money supply is what, what's breaking out? Do we really think that that mining supply, that, that people who are holding bitcoin there are going to be selling bitcoin? And as part of a diversification strategy, it feels like that's almost destined to tail off, at least until another big number, whether the next big figure is considered 150 or 200, hell if I know. But with Chinese money supply running like crazy, it seemed to me that the idea of selling bitcoin, of all things, unless one is funding one's lifestyle, just doesn't make sense. And if that's where you think the selling is going to come from, I think that the selling is going to stop. Now, obviously it's not binary, right? You know, these things aren't binary. They're, they're tiny little decisions from. Even from. Even if there are 700 Bitcoin billionaires that collectively have been selling into the, you know, the rally as it goes higher, the question is they're not going to stop like, you know, digitally, which is what the bitcoiners always think. And you crypto Twitter, if you believed it, there's this herd and they, they say yes or they say no. And that's not how it works. It's little bits of decisions, but on the margin, one would expect it to slow down. And if you see slowing down at the same time that we have zero euphoria from the retail side in crypto and there's every, every just, just none of it, and continual buying from institutions, whether that be treasury companies, whether that be treasury reserve companies, I don't know. Is that those the words we're using now, Scott?
- [09:03]
Dave Weisberger
Treasury treasury companies and bitcoin balance sheet companies.
- [09:06]
Scott Melker
Okay, so those two, as well as more interest in funds such as James Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, who's gentleman enough not to promote his own fund. But I'm sure that your, your phone.
- [09:17]
Dave Weisberger
Is ringing a lot more because he can just buy a yacht and take pictures of it.
- [09:25]
Scott Melker
But yeah, you get the idea. But the fact is, is that demand is, is clearly there. So it. Look, markets are supply and demand. I mean, it's the same reason, you know, that things are. But anyway, I just want to make that point because if Chinese money supply is truly accelerating and that's where the, a lot of the bitcoin supply had been coming from, one would expect that to curtail or at Least trail off.
- [09:46]
Dave Weisberger
Listen, I want James to jump in but to me this is very easy and I was saying it last week before we even had this move. We have just the Most basic economics 101 supply and demand and we actually have the transparent information to show that it's true. I mean crypto Investment products log second largest weekly inflows of 3.7 billion amid Bitcoin all time high rally remember that this was going through the end of last week doesn't even include the move up Basically the last $5,000 of that move. Two straight billion dollar inflow days bring spot Bitcoin ETFs to 150 80,158 billion in total net assets. And we know this guy, I mean is 4225 of those Bitcoin and a half a billion of those inflows from last week are sailor who's never stopping. But like it is just that easy. I think James, you just look and you say bitcoin treasury companies are buying this much. ETFs are buying this much. We know other platforms are coming online. There's just not that many sellers that, that yeah will equalize at some point. But this is more obvious than it should be.
- [10:47]
James Lavish
It's. Yeah, I agree with you Scott. And, and in my quick and dirty kind of you know, review of what's happened the last few days this morning it's still early out here. Obviously just exactly what you said. Look, we've got, we've got massive buying from treasury companies now. Remember though a lot of that is a certain portion of that in my opinion is a reallocation out of bitcoin spot and into these companies. Some people selling some their spot in and buying these companies now or to.
- [11:22]
Dave Weisberger
Be accurate don't they just send their bitcoin in to see that fund effectively and that converted to shares of the new publicly traded company at a multiple.
- [11:30]
James Lavish
Some and we've done that in the, in the Bitcoin opportunity fund and if for tax advantages, you know that's, that's.
- [11:37]
Scott Melker
One thing you could do.
- [11:37]
James Lavish
But there's been a lot of talk about and I shared the screen so maybe you can pull this up, Scott. And I've got a couple of charts that, that I looked at this morning so obviously yesterday and you know the Latin you can see over the last 24 hours where these green lines here are the, these are the shorts just getting wrecked, just absolutely wiped out. And so you can see there were a lot of shorts there and, and, and they were li. Over the Last you know, few last day and a half. And then this is from James Check Check on Chain. And it, it, it just verifies that you can see the liquidation volumes there. Right? So that's an obvious thing. Here's, here's a few things. We've got the, the demand from the, from the treasury companies. You've got the shorts that were sitting on top of it. You have it rips through this, this 110 to 120 price on not a lot of volume. That's one thing that does concern me. It just was not a lot of volume. And so you have to remember that when you have an, an air pocket like that. And actually James Check talked about this in his newsletter this morning on Check on Chain. I really like his stuff and you know, thanks James in advance for or in. In arrears for letting me share your charts. But, but look the, there's an air pocket there so just be aware of that. If you're trading around this thing then that's, that's something to be aware of. I'm not trading around it. I don't care. We're long this for the, the long haul. But that's something concerning me is the lack of volume at this in, in this move. But going back to the story what you were talking about Scott is yeah we do have and, and what you were saying Dave is some older holders were. Have been selling. That's where the supply has been coming from. You can see here in the, this, this blue and purple. That's 7 to to 10 plus years of volume that that was selling. That's a huge amount there. You saw it back here in this move up to 100. And you saw it here in this latest move, you know, or actually this, this latest consolidation at 107 ish. 100. 100 to 107. And those are old coins being sold and, and that was to fund lifestyles. You know, in my opinion people are, they, they've held out these things from a thousand to a hundred thousand. You're up 100x. You, you of course you're going to take some profits on that and you're going to go buy your, your castle and your yachts and your airplanes or whatever you're going to do with it. There's massive wealth that, that was created there. And then finally you've got the bitcoin ETF inflows which is what you were talking about Scott. It's relentless. The inflows are relentless. So you've got all that put Together it, at some point the selling dries up, the shorts get wrecked and the, the buying continues. And it wasn't that where there was a surge of demand this weekend, it was that there was a, you know, the liquidity dried up. There was just, there was no availability. So people talk about, you know, when the, when the selling, when, when the supply ceases, this thing's going to rip. And that's exactly what happened this weekend. You had an air pocket, not a lot of selling demand, and the shorts got taken out and here we are. So. And that's kind of just a, just a trading analysis of what's happened the last few days.
- [15:23]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, I think that that all makes a ton of sense. Like I said, this is one of the easier ones to break down a lot of times, like what the hell happened here? You could just see how many people are buying it. And interesting sort of philosophical conversation with Iago on Thursday about the long term sellers. We agreed that a lot of it was lifestyle chips. But in his opinion, since he was there since 2011 and knows a lot of these guys, he also thinks that a lot of them are very frustrated with what bitcoin, Bitcoin has become because the people who hold 50, 60, 100,000 Bitcoin from 2010, 2011 bought it to rage against the machine and a hedge against the government. And because they never wanted Wall street and the United States and other governments to get involved. And they're basically just like, I don't care anymore. I got billions of dollars here sitting here and bitcoin isn't what I intended it to be anymore.
- [16:16]
James Lavish
Yeah, we gotta go back to the general macro picture. You know, one of the main realities of the overhang of all the market is that you've got relentless deficit spending at the same time that as Mike pointed out, you've got the President of the United States in a public battle with the head of the US Central Bank. I mean, this is just insane. So how are they, are they separate or not? Is it an independent arm or isn't it? Of course, we all know it's not, you know, but it's it, they're not even keeping up that pretense anymore. So the yields are going up and gold is going up and bitcoin's going up. I know, Mike, you, you, you keep saying it's a risk asset. It has acted as a risk asset for a very long time. I think every single, every single dollar that bitcoin goes up, people realize that it's, it's a, it's a risk off asset. At some point it becomes that it is not that yet. I'm not going to claim that that yet. It, I mean, structurally it is, but perception wise, it's not in the market. And so it's still, you know, that, that you're still going to have that yin and yang on this. And people have to understand that. So when you have this macro overdrop, which, you know, this, this, it's an overhang of the whole market that you've got this relentless deficits spending. And I posted something about it last week. Yeah, we were refilling the, the tga, the, the general account because we Dr. Because we didn't have a debt ceiling. Now we've got a new debt ceiling boom. Three or four hundred billion dollars spent in a nanosecond. You know, and so people have to, they're realizing that this is not going to stop. We're going to continue somehow creating liquidity in the markets.
- [18:07]
Scott Melker
Why?
- [18:07]
James Lavish
Because we have to. We have to. It's just got to continue. And I know, and this is probably where, you know, we differ the most on, on the macro picture, Mike and I differ the most on this, is that Mike believes we learn from our lessons and I don't believe that we have learned from our lessons. I, I think that we, there's, there's, the lesson, is there. There's no way to stop the, you're not going to take the patient off the off life support. You're just not going to do it.
- [18:37]
Dave Weisberger
Yeah, I want Mike's opinion on that. The big beautiful bill, obviously we've talked about it a bit, but you know, Mike's been saying that we've learned the lessons of the past, as James said, that we will never go back to Zerp. And you know, QE Elon Musk seems to disagree and the big beautiful bill structurally seems to disagree. Now the rhetoric is we're going to grow ourselves out of it and who cares about cutting spending? That doesn't matter. Right. So Mike, seeing that, does that at least concern you about inflation or money printing or any of these things? And the rhetoric about pal. Because if Powell actually goes, we get a puppet who just cuts rates.
- [19:12]
Scott Melker
Right?
- [19:13]
Mike McGlone
Yeah. So Paul's gone in 10 months anyhow.
- [19:15]
Dave Weisberger
So I don't understand why he would leave.
- [19:18]
Mike McGlone
Yeah, it's just we, you know, it's. Let's get it. So it's the key thing about being a strategist. Love him or hate him, you just got to see, what is this? What does Trump's actions matter? For markets. So I think it's kind of silly stage that they're using this silly. He's gone in 10 months. And I, I fully expect by the time we get the new chairman, the market will be calling for cuts anyhow. It'll have to because number one thing is the stock market going down. Otherwise there's no reason to cut. If you cut to the stock market going up like this, it's just going to create a worse situation than it did in 29 and 1989 in Japan. But that's a question of time. The key thing is now we're into the macro. It's July. It's the time of year everything's going up. I mean stock market always goes up in July. Not always, but last time went down was 2014. And I'd like to point out crypto, bitcoin crypto is a very highly correlated stock market. So let's put ourselves in an end of the year basis. If we end the year now where we are now, the best performing major macro commodity is US based copper for what tariffs, Copper based in the rest world is barely up a little bit. There's Bitcoin up about 20 extra right now at this, we speak 30% in the year and there's gold up 28% in the year. How we end the estimate, the reds, the end of the year to me is what's going to matter most and might really flip my macro narratives and my picture. My outlook at the beginning of the year was this is going to be a down year for the stock market. Obviously we've only had a mere blip of that. We've all assumed that we're never going to have recessions again. The stock market is never going down. Bitcoin's never going down there. Besides, there's your trade. It's already priced in. It's wonderful. The trade is. What's the optionality here? Let's see. If we end the year with the S P500 up only 2% actually down, that's a massive trade that I think's worth playing for. And what's gonna. What's the category? We'll see.
- [21:00]
James Lavish
And I agree, I agree, Mike, you have to prepare for that. Which is why we do have a layer of opt in our portfolio to account for that. Because that is a problem, that's a possibility.
- [21:11]
Mike McGlone
Well, so that's my point is if we trigger that, if we do that by then here, this is very similar to a 2008 situation. The big difference is back then when this thing started stock market to GDP was a fraction of what it was. Now it's like 1.2 times versus the rest of the world is 15 now we have almost a 15 50% premium versus the rest of the world's GDP. That's my point is the only thing that matters now when people say oh inflation's okay, stock market economy is okay is that that's all irrelevant. All that matters now when you're two times GDP is a stock market it has to go up. So that's my point is from the end of the year I'd look at things that are happening right now. This is actually a meh year for certainly for cryptos. Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index is maybe up a percent on the year with the stock market up 7%. That's not good. So the trade I'm really expecting is and then you look at also like broad commodities. Here's one thing that's also shifted before in the last like since 2011 that bottom US stock market drove the dollar higher as it traded out versus the rest of what's happening this year. Bloomberg dollar index is down 8% of the year. So this could be a whole faint. I hope it's not but I just it's be wonderful if we can end anywhere near here or higher and risk assets in the year the big risk is tilt lower and that's where I think the risks are kicking in with tariffs. People are way misunderstanding our equity strategies getting what this is going to do for earnings and what's due for you know people have to face those, those spending costs. So I, I look at it as right now it's wonderful and the those gold and long bombs are still doing pretty well on the year despite this massive wonderful situation. Just imagine if that stock market ends up unchanged in a year. That's my point is we're all priced for perfection and so I'll end with this. The key thing that really triggered my technical bearishness was I love watching Ethereum. I've been watching it forever. When it broke down through 3000 I said oh it's going to go to 2000 and then it tripped me up when it spent a good month below 2000 I got too bearish at the lows. Of course now we're back at 3,000. What are you supposed to do? It's July.
- [23:19]
Dave Weisberger
To be fair on that one. To be fair on that one you said it's 2000. What stops it from going a much lower even approaching a thousand and it got into 1300s. I mean those Are rounding errors for pretty. You're directionally right on that. There's that. That's correct.
- [23:32]
Mike McGlone
No, back to 3,000, I look at as an option orientated trader. Like, yeah, I'll test some negative, negative deltas here.
- [23:41]
James Lavish
So just a, just a couple things. First of all, the, the tariffs are. Those are the big, beautiful threats. That's what, that's what those are. You know, and I just. Trump uses his rhetoric. You've seen this for, you saw this a whole term for four years. You're seeing it now again for another six months so far that he just, he wielded this huge sword of tariffs. He's gonna, he's gonna keep swinging around. I don't know what we're gonna get out of it as a country. I don't know what he's gonna get out of it as a president. It's unclear. And so that's. That there, Mike, is more uncertainty to me than a threat of, of, you know, serious damage to the economic cycle. That's, that's my opinion on that. That's number one. Number two, the problem with the learning part, we learned our lessons of, of 1998-2001-2008-2020. We didn't learn our lesson because every time that we go through one of these, it gets worse and the printing gets, the printing is larger and the, the liquidity that's needed, that's necessary to keep the patient on life support is more, you need more oxygen, you need more saline, you need more meds, you need more drugs. You know, we got to keep the thing going. And so the issue isn't that we, that we learned our lesson. The problem with that statement, and this is why, this is why I'm on the other side of this with you, is I, as, as an optimist, I, I would hope we've learned our lesson, but I don't think we have, because it's not. There's no we. There is no we in the United States government except a bunch of people who are doing exactly what they need to do to get reelected. And that is all that they are concerned about. And they're. So the, the incentives don't match what the outcome should be. The incentives match what is the outcome is going to be, which is they're going to do whatever they need to do to protect their own constituents and make sure that they have liquidity, they have cover, they have, you know, regulatory cover in order to do whatever they need to do as businesses and people in order to keep funding their campaigns, in order to get them reelected. That's all they care about.
- [26:06]
Dave Weisberger
And you can see why Elon is so mad, huh?
- [26:09]
James Lavish
What's that?
- [26:09]
Dave Weisberger
I guess you can see why Musk is so angry.
- [26:12]
James Lavish
Exactly.
- [26:15]
Dave Weisberger
How much time of his life did he waste thinking that, you know, they were serious about Kots and austerity. Austerity and fiscal responsibility.
- [26:23]
Scott Melker
It's, it's not wasted. Scott. A lot of what, what was done is incredibly important. Let's go back to principles first principles. Now. Someone on this show who tends to like to wear an orange shirt a lot made some statements earlier this year. Let's revisit them. I said, this is not about cutting. Every time Mike said we're going to austerity, I look like I had just sucked a lemon. And I basically said, you're out of your mind that we're not going to cut. But what this is about is cutting bureaucracy and cutting regulations and fomenting growth. And so it was very, very obvious. I also said they don't give a rat's ass about the real economy in 2015, but they carry shit ton about the real economy in 2016, because that's when the midter are not 20. 2016, 2025 versus 2026. They care a ton about the economy. As we go into the midterms, and so everything is setting up for that. None of that has changed. We know that there are a few misconceptions in the economy. The one lesson we learned, and we did learn it, I mean, you know, it was a, some of us knew it was a mistake at the time was what happened in the pandemic was a double dose of disaster. We had three decades of a, of a policy that was bipartisan, not, you know, not Republican versus Democrat. Both parties of below market interest rates coupled with, with, with regulation, you know, to favor whichever industries are favored by the, the administration. The goal was to promote inflation in assets and at the same time mute inflation to the consumer. And by and large, it was pretty successful because of the march of technology. With AI, we have the ability to keep that, that, that, that going. So every time we talk about inflation, I want to make the point and I do this every week. But I think it's really important to understand it this week because I want to go talk about Powell and I want to talk about the Federal Reserve. I want to talk about how so many mainstream economists literally have their heads up their asses, because they do. Because what you have is inflation is a monetary phenomenon and asset inflation, which, you know, you get Tucker Carlson talking About and Tucker Carlson. I'm not sure he could spell economics honestly. You know, while he'. Great. You know, he's funny, but he's not very smart on this. Or he plays an idiot on tv. I don't really know which it is. Maybe he's a brilliant guy who understands stuff, but the words out of his mouth make no sense. The reason housing's not affordable is we turned it into an investment. And all investments, I don't care if it's a stock market that's at 2 times GDP, housing that's at levels of unaffordability. It's all the same thing. It's called monetary inflation. You print more, it has to go someplace. And when it goes into assets, the people who are sitting in D.C. are happy. They act like they're kids who just got their Happy Meals. It's like great. Assets went up. This is wonderful. People are going to vote for me. And at the same time, when assets go up, what does that mean? That means you can invest more in automation. That means you can invest more in outsourcing. You can invest more in the things that keep the consumer inflation down. Now, what was the mistake? We learned don't give money directly to the people, especially not people who don't work.
- [29:35]
Dave Weisberger
How about a thousand dollars to every baby born in the United States?
- [29:39]
Scott Melker
Yeah, babies. That's different. Because that you're trying.
- [29:42]
Dave Weisberger
They don't go gamble it away, first of all.
- [29:43]
Scott Melker
They don't go gamble it away. But second of all, and anyone who's ever had a kid, and you have, you have kids, Scott, so you know this, you know how expensive they are. I mean, look, if your economic policy is designed to incentivize behavior, and it's behavior you want, such as, you know, replacing replenishing our birth rate so we don't go down the same rabbit hole that, that Japan went down. And that's the biggest single difference in the United States and Japan is we still haven't quite gotten there, but we are definitely on the risk of it. Elon Musk says it is the most, you know, existential risk is falling birth rates. So let's, let's call it. But anyway, that, that's that example. My point, my point is the tilt, the government is doing that if you go down, the one thing about this cabinet you have to say is they are all marching to the same drummer. Now, did this idea originate in Trump's head, in Bessense head, in J.D. vance's head? I don't know whose head it originated in. All of them are on the same page, which is growth at all costs. And we're going to channel inflation into assets. And so now, now ask yourself, what's one of the largest assets that are beneficiaries? I'm going to say something that's going to make Mike smile. I think he's going to be right on the long bond, and I think he's going to be wrong on the long bond direction. Off of the cuts. I think rates are going to come down massively. I think the long bond is going to come down. Why? Because they want money there and it's going to go there for that reason. Remember, the dollar is, is, is, is, is a fiat currency, but it is the strongest fiat currency of the lot. You know, and just watch, watch what's happening. I mean, you know, Mike's right. I mean, you know, the. Our long Yield is what, 200 basis points over the average of everybody else. Why? Yeah, you know, why should it be? It is because, you know, we have artificially tight policies. There's. We had 30 years of interest rates, by most calculations that were negative real rates. And under Powell, we now have rates. If you compare it to truflation, our real interest rates are, are, are really, really high. You know, if truflation's right on the consumer inflation. Now it's, of course, if you use asset inflation. Well, no, it's not like that's the point.
- [31:51]
Dave Weisberger
True inflation, when you look at the entirety of inflation numbers.
- [31:55]
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's right. And so, so the point being, you know, why does this matter? Well, it matters for two reasons. First, they don't want the be high. And interest payments are a large, a huge part of the deficit right now. They want to bring that down. They do want to cut some spending. They want to cut where they want to cut. That's the whole idea of rescissions. But what they really want to do is cut spending that decreases and suppresses growth. And so that's what's going on here. Now, will Powell be. Stay the course. Will he wait for his entire term? I'd say no way. If I bet on polymarket, I'd be happy to bet. I don't know if there's a contract that says Powell steps down before the end of his term.
- [32:32]
Dave Weisberger
He's.
- [32:33]
Scott Melker
Because it's pain. I mean, how many times have you. Let me ask you this, Scott.
- [32:38]
Dave Weisberger
I know I'm gonna.
- [32:40]
Scott Melker
Everywhere. I think. I think we're all married. How many times have you done something you didn't want to do because you just couldn't take being nagged anymore. And by the way, I'm sure my wife feels the same way about me nagging her. It's the same thing. At a certain point when you're getting yelled at day after day after day, it's diminishing returns to stay.
- [33:04]
Dave Weisberger
The entire world can't see our wives yelling at us and see us capitulate.
- [33:07]
Scott Melker
There's a difference that's even worse.
- [33:08]
Dave Weisberger
Private capitulation of marriage. Yeah. Which you would imply that maybe he'll just stick it out.
- [33:14]
Scott Melker
The hammer they're going to use, I called it a few weeks ago. Just watch it play out. They're going to use this two and a half billion dollar renovation of the Fed building to use it. It's now in. He now has hatchet people doing it and Senator Lummis is doing it, others are doing doing it. They're going to push him. He's not going to stay because they're going to make it too damn uncomfortable for him to stay. And it's unfortunate because honestly, he shouldn't be lowering rates. Honestly, there is strong, you can make an arg, you can make arguments on both sides of that. I actually, I used to be on that side of the argument. The more that I, I, I see it, I actually think that that's not true. But it doesn't matter. The fact is I think he was a steadying influence during periods of very difficult times. And I think that, you know that the problem here is if the legacy of Powell's Federal Reserve ship is, is a, a food fight with the administration that goes on for a huge amount of time, it tarnishes his legacy. And I think people are going to privately tell him that because his legacy right now, whether you love him, hate him, hate the Fed, and, and there's all sorts of reasons.
- [34:22]
Dave Weisberger
Soft landing is his legacy right now.
- [34:23]
Scott Melker
Actually, I think his legacy is pretty good and I think that kind of matters. And you can talk about regimes as much as you want. Our job on this show is to get an idea of where the macro is going. For me, where the macro is going is lower rates. Not so much because of what it does for the wealth effect, which is what Powell is concerned about. What Mike is talking about. Michael talks about the stock market. Why does Mike say the stock market has to go down before they lower rates? The answer is because the argument is if the stock market goes up, it drives aggregate demand and translates to consumer inflation, to use your expression. Mike, I'd like to see the data on that. Where's the Beef consumer inflation, lagged asset inflation for 30 plus years. I don't see it. And that is the conventional economic policy that Powell is using his playbook from. And frankly, if you're going to use a playbook that has been consistently wrong for 30 years, maybe you should get a new playbook. And that is what people are talking about. This isn't modern monetary theory. They understand they need to get the deficit down. They do, they get it. They need to grow their way out of it. But they, they do understand it. But if you're going to have pure asset inflation, a lot of that asset price doesn't go into aggregate demand. And even if it does, where does it go? It certainly isn't driving up base commodities. It certainly isn't driving up the thing that the average person cares about. Just remember that. Now, you know, I hate to go on these economic tangents because they get very complicated. There have been so many other topics we've touched upon, but it doesn't seem like anybody cares about. No, there's nobody who has any vested interest in stock market going down. There are, there is huge vested interest in bitcoin going up among the crew that's running this government. There is vested interest in driving up growth rates. And what does growth rates going to come from? It means encouraging technology. It means encouraging production. Like, you know, I was talking to someone this, this, this past week. I had dinner with somebody knows someone who was very prominent in the previous administration, who Mike's often quoted. I don't want to go with who, but let's just say, you know, first hand information, who, contrary to opinions and books, is more or less on board with a lot of what's going on in this administration. What he said is watch copper mines, watch mines getting reopened. All of this is about reopening mines in Nevada and the Southwest. And, and he said this to me three days ago and I opened up the Journal this morning. Why didn't open, open the Journal? I looked online in the Journal and what do we see? Headlines, the headline paper journals. Just give me a break. But I, I mean who wants ink on their hands? But anyway, what's, what's one of the first stories I read? Reopening of copper mines.
- [36:57]
Mike McGlone
There you go.
- [36:57]
Scott Melker
That's what this is about. That is what this stuff is about. All of these things. Everyone just makes assumptions that, oh, this is just, you know, a madman swinging a hammer. Well, half the country thinks that because that's what the media said says. The other half the country says, well he's our Madman. We don't care if he swings the hammer. And then there's people who actually have their eyes open and they watch that. There's method to the madness. When you have a team, this. This administration is much more like a football team than it is a baseball team. Baseball team. Individual players come up and hit. Yeah, they have to work together a bit, but football teams have to work as a unit. I don't care how good you individuals are, if you don't work as a team, you lose. This administration actually is working as a team, weirdly. And. And I don't want to go down the Epstein rabbit hole, because that may be the only crack in that. For.
- [37:40]
Mike McGlone
For.
- [37:41]
Scott Melker
And there's constituencies and reasons for it. But they economically all want the same thing. And one of the things they want is to be able to acquire bitcoin for the government and then see a 10X. And I don't like betting, you know, the old, don't fight the Fed. Don't fight people with power. More power than you. And so why fight it? That's really. That's really an issue, and it matters. No, it's not. Fight the Fed there. They want the Fed on their side. They want to co op the Fed. It's just. It's just the way things are. And, and if you look at it, you know, gold and bitcoin will be correlated at some point very tightly, but they are not correlated really tightly now because bitcoin can move, because it can eat into gold. I mean, gold went from 6% of, at its bottom of what I'll call monetary aggregates, we'll call central bank reserves, to 15% now. They were 40% in 1971, and before that, in the 40s, they were 80%. And so there's a lot of room for gold to continue to go up and a lot of room for bitcoin to jump into that breach. And that's the real thing about bitcoin. Now, when it comes to crypto and it comes to technology, is that really just a question of beta to the stock market and beta to technology untethered by earnings? Yeah, I think it is. And so it moves. You know, I made this point and people gave me all sorts of. I. I gave a quote in a Forbes article a couple weeks ago. I said they were asking about XRP price. They were talking about the court case. They said the court case don't mean. What matters is XRP is beta to Bitcoin. And Bitcoin's gone up. And guess what? It's XRP has done exactly what I said it would do. It's beta to Bitcoin was high, it's gone up more Bitcoin plateaus, you know, etc. Etc. Bitcoin drops, etc. Etc. So there you go, Mike. Yes, I listen for a long time.
- [39:40]
Mike McGlone
Let's, let's create, let's create a little discourse just to get our, let's fire each other up. But the probability for my view of Powell resigning is bought as equal to Trump pulling back on tariffs significantly with the stock market going up, it's very unlikely he's going to resign partly because he knows he has the whole global legacy and future in his favor. I mean for example when Trump first started pushing back on him and first in the first administration I think was Greenspan sent in a, sent him a pair of earmarks. So this, he has the whole and destiny in his favor. This law was set up for him to be a check to, to Trump. If Trump finds something trumped up, fine. That's his nature. I think power will resist. So let's, let's go there also let's point out what's really happening in the macro. The second largest economy in the planet despite the most massive monetary stimulus in history is deflating rapidly. Minus 3.6 ppi. That's just the latest measure. Housing we know is, it's, I mean we've seen this before. I lived, I guess I'm jaded. I started in business in 88 and I saw how great Japan was and then it collapsed. It's happening in China and the rest of the world's suffering to that now they're all facing tariffs. So we have hundred year events all kicking in and here's the risk. Trump could end up if he's lucky I think on Mount Rushmore or could very seriously end up like Herbert Hoover, the last president who was elected with the stock market this expensive, but it's nowhere near expensive. If you add in housing, this is the most expensive in history. And how did we get here year by all the policies you pointed out. At some point you have to re reach an end game. That's my point is at the beginning here I still thought this year is going to be the end game. So far it looks less likely. I'll wait till they see how it looks like by the end of the year. It should kick in in a few months. And the key thing that's been emboldened me all along is you look at the ratio of gold versus SB 500. You take gold divided by beta it's been picking up for it's actually outperforming beta. Now the stock market total return for almost four years. At the same time you look at the see the 200 day moving average is heading higher in that ratio. You look at the 200 day moving average of the VIX it bottom it stalled right below 20 right now. 20 Vix or 17% Vix July. It's wonderful. If that starts just ticking up a little bit, the whole thing tumbles and all we do is follow the lessons of history of Japan, what's happening in China, what's happening in the past and that's why is where such a wonderful inflection point. The last thing you want to do is load up overweight risk assets that have a three times beta. The stock market is very expensive in that Bitcoin again remember let's all tilt back to we all, you know, we tilt back. What happened with Michael Saylor? Why are some of these treasury companies buying bitcoin? Because Mike, why didn't Michael Saylor do it? Because his business had no more opportunity. He was being technology out. Jeff Booth pointed it out. Technology is moving so flash so fast, it's so deflationary. So if your business, you see it's better to buy a risk asset like that. I mean how is history going to judge this? I look at this as great. By the end of the year I think history is going to start saying yeah, you probably are supposed to look at long bonds at 5% in gold rather than bitcoin above 100,000.
- [42:47]
Dave Weisberger
I don't think that's fair. Michael Saylor bought bitcoin initially because he was truly orange peeled and viewed it as a hedge against his cash position, not because he had a, a failing business. I think he's continued to buy bitcoin maybe more for reasons like you laid out. But I talked to that guy two or three times in the first three or four months that he bought bitcoin and you could not find someone who is more hardcore there for the right reasons and deeply understood why he was buying the asset. So I think we could both be right. I just don't think that he jumped into bitcoin because he looked at his five yachts and said wow, my life is failing. I'm on the way down.
- [43:25]
Mike McGlone
I don't mean his life.
- [43:27]
James Lavish
That's the thing.
- [43:28]
Dave Weisberger
The business was still a viable business, you know. But yes, I mean, you know, yeah.
- [43:33]
Mike McGlone
Well he's competing amongst sharks again. It's not putting against Mike. I remember I got to interview him. I got really bullish. I was really bullish around 10,000. But once you go up 10x and you double down, the lessons of history and usually aren't good. And hopefully it's different this time. Maybe we'll get lucky. I just. Good luck.
- [43:50]
Dave Weisberger
All right, James?
- [43:51]
Scott Melker
Yeah.
- [43:51]
James Lavish
Well, you know, you, you've seen this movie before, we all have. Where you, if you do roll into a recession, what happens to your, to your deficit? It blows out BY Somewhere between 10, 10 and 25%, you know, and it's already. What's that?
- [44:09]
Mike McGlone
It means it's insignificant for bond yields. That's when it becomes the 10 and for bond yields becomes deflation. That's my point is I just learned this in the trading pits. Definitely it's fuel bond rallies, oftentimes steps.
- [44:21]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [44:21]
James Lavish
But the, the, My whole point is that the, the, the, the whole system is trapped. It's not just this administration. It's not the central bank, it's not us, it's not China.
- [44:32]
Dave Weisberger
It's.
- [44:32]
James Lavish
The whole system is trapped.
- [44:34]
Scott Melker
Why?
- [44:34]
James Lavish
Because the entire system runs on liquidity. It needs more liquidity. It must have it. It must have it. And if it, if we go into a deflationary trend where the entire world deflates, Mike, it collapses on itself. And they know that they can't have it. So there's going to be nobody to buy that 10 year at some point. So that 10 year will, that the, the yields will come down. The yields will come down. The yields come down and then suddenly they will absolutely blow up.
- [45:05]
Mike McGlone
Why?
- [45:05]
James Lavish
Because there will be no. You will, you will have, you will have a, an auction that goes no bid. And you know, if you, if you don't have enough buyers for an auction, it's, it's, that's it. The game is over. And so they will not allow that to happen. How do they not allow that to happen? By printing more money and stepping into the market themselves. They will, they will start doing yield curve control either either through an acronym or just outright because they have to. There's just. No, the math doesn't work. That's the problem we're facing. This time is different. It's not different. This time is just a little bit more than last time, which was a little bit more than the other the time before, which is a little bit more than the time before that. And you know, it all started with just this simple statement from Greenspan in 1987 that, don't worry, we have the market. And it, and it reversed, it reversed that sell off in In Black Monday that was the, that's what started all of it. And it's just gotten worse and compounded each event, each 100 year event that we've seen and we've seen a lot of them which is just insane because These are all 100 year events. You know the crash of 87, the 1998 long term capital management crisis, the 1999, 2000 tech bubble, you know, 2001. We haven't even talked about 9, 11. Then you've got 2008, then you've got 2020. These are 100 year events that happen every five to seven years. This is insane. So what do you think happen the next 100 year event? We haven't even talked about black swans so you can't have it. You got to have prints. You must print more money because the entire world operates on liquidity and it's because of fiat.
- [46:52]
Scott Melker
Mike, you were saying something before. I don't want to talk over you.
- [46:55]
Mike McGlone
Well, I don't, I don't dispute we're going to print. That's my point. We're printing massively in China because significant deflation, that's a hundred year event. And the 10 year yields are 1.67. I'm not being complicated. I expect similar in this country. And there's number one catalyst is everything's being elevated by the stock market. Stock market has to stay up. Once it just drops a little bit and stays down, it's over. Of course, maybe the lessons of history. Only two examples of this expensive 1929 u. S. 1989. Maybe we can look back and say it's different. I can't wait to write that book. But I suspect my book will say it wasn't different.
- [47:33]
Scott Melker
So. So I'm reading some of the comments and I have to agree because it's now the time. So you know, Mr. Pibby writes it's the, you know, he has long tail of cryptos and bitcoin trains as an option on its own adoption on his bingo card and he's feeling lucky. But that's actually the point. If we keep going down the road of more and more obvious, you know, debt, you know, junkiness for the, for the economy and every print becomes less and less. All the people buying bitcoin today, you have to look at the motivations and why is it. It's the smart money. The people who are buying it are buying it because they say wait a minute, this stuff is going to get. There needs to be a store of value. I want to buy the one that when it becomes a store of value will be worth X where x is 10x or more of where it is today.
- [48:22]
James Lavish
And so it's easy to deal with than gold. Gold is a good store value as well. Obviously. It's been, it's been a tremendous store value for thousands of years. But Bitcoin is, is superior in pretty much every single way.
- [48:34]
Scott Melker
And so the point is, is that the likelihood of that option cashing in is going up. All of this news makes it go up. I mean, you know, I, I sit on spaces sometimes with people who are on the opposite side of this, who are like, like, you know, doomers, in a sense. They're like, oh, you got to end the Federal Reserve. You got to stop this. We got to go to full sound money. And what people don't think about is, you know, it's sort of like the, it's an almost perfect analogy. You rarely get analogies that are this perfect. But the economy is like a heroin addict. And you don't just cut off a heroin addict and go cold turkey or they die. Right. You know, the moral equivalent of our economy. If we just said, okay, no more debt, we're going to die, done, we're gonna, we're gonna go austere and everything else. I mean, the, the, you'd have a revolt, there'd be, you know, the fourth turning, you know, it would be, it would be really nasty.
- [49:24]
James Lavish
It'd be catastrophic.
- [49:25]
Scott Melker
And, and that kind of catastrophe is. Neither party is interested in that. The only person is interested in catastrophe is the guy who's going to be the new mayor of New York in all likelihood because of all the infighting. But that catastrophe, because it's localized, you know, could go four to eight years and then, then the people gain sense. Sort of like what happened in San Francisco. So, you know, but this sort of thing probably. So my thesis, Mike, and yours aren't all that different. If you're right and we look like we're going to be on the edge of the disinflationary or not disinflation, deflationary abyss in consumer prices or investments, they're not going to let that happen. They're going to do everything they can. Now. Maybe they'll fail. Maybe they'll cause a hyperinflationary collapse. Maybe we'll go all full Weimar. I don't think that's likely, but that's the real downside. And if that downside happens, then what do you want to be in? Well, if you were in gold back in those days, in of Terms Germany, you were the only ones who were fine if you're in Bitcoin, the same thing unless we lose our electric grid. So that's really the issue. The issue is where do things go if this all collapses? And I continue to point out that when you have this amount of debt, that denominator is why our assets at GDP are so high. It's because of the denominator. And yes, I think you're absolutely 100% right when you say we should look at the S and P in gold terms. It's still expensive but much more reasonable. But let's say gold goes to 5,000 and the S P stays where it is or goes up another 15 or 20%. What, what would have happened? What would have happened is the denominator corrected, right? You know, it's not dollars as a denominator. We're using them because we have, because we get huge benefit for using them. But the denominator is, is moving, right? Where there are more dollars and every day there's more dollars. That's really the issue. And the same is going on in China, right? You know, they're printing and printing, but you know, what are they going to do? I mean they built so much stuff that isn't used so much mal investment, we call it mal investment because you know, it's the same thing. It's like if you build stuff hoping people will use it and they sit as zombies, you don't get, you get marginal diminishing returns out of what you build. That's what happened there. And they're paying that price. By the way, the same thing happened in Japan, only in Japan they didn't have anything close to the population to be able to pull it off.
- [51:47]
Dave Weisberger
So we obviously only have four minutes left, sadly. But there's something we have to talk about before we go, which is that this is Crypto Week Stablecoin bill poised to pass as House kicks off Crypto Week. The Republicans obviously have made this a priority to get the genius act done, but also generally to push forward a bunch of crypto legislation. And we just have to laugh that that means Maxine Waters has to launch Anti Crypto Corruption Week to fight against Crypto Week. The anti crypto army is still alive. I won't say alive and well, but the irony of the way our government approaches this asset class are probably everything. I mean how many times have we seen this week the photo of Sam Bankman Fried was arm around Maxine Waters, you know, as the dunk response to this. But I guess we don't need to unpack that too deeply. But we can just say, and I did. I know, Dave, you have strong opinions on that. We can just say or discuss whether this is a catalyst for future price or whether this is one of the reasons that we've been seeing price rise. It's a big week. If we actually finally get stablecoin legislation and other things pushing forward.
- [52:59]
Scott Melker
Once you have stablecoin legislation, then companies will be able to offer payments that are cheaper, more efficient and better than what we they have people have today. So imagine Zelle and and Venmo uncapped incredibly cheaply. They can offer investment platforms. Coinbase will be able to offer it. Kraken will be able to offer. That's why Kraken's going for the banking license. They will be able to offer payment systems and whatnot that will allow people to hold very little money in a what? In an account, you can call it a checking account if you have to have like the anachronism, but in a payments account and sweep it into Bitcoin or sweep it into other tokenized assets. The banks, the big banks understand this perfectly well. Hell, BlackRock with Buidl understands it perfectly well.
- [53:48]
James Lavish
Well, here's what's amazing about it. Yeah. The first principle of it is that the stable coins buy U.S. treasuries. So you're effectively using the stable coin as currency and bypassing the dollar and just saying, you know what? We're gonna be able to. Instead of having money parked in dollars, we're gonna have money parked in Treasury.
- [54:13]
Dave Weisberger
It's like being able to spend your Treasuries directly rather than trading.
- [54:18]
Mike McGlone
Right.
- [54:18]
Scott Melker
More.
- [54:19]
James Lavish
More buyers of Treasuries. More buyers of Treasuries.
- [54:21]
Mike McGlone
More.
- [54:21]
James Lavish
Why? Because they need more buyers of Treasuries. They all know this. This is not a secret. We talked about it on the Hill almost two years ago. We talked about.
- [54:30]
Scott Melker
And to give credit, right, Mr. McGlone talking about crypto dollars, in probably the first macro Monday, you made the point that the product market fit in. Crypto dollars was probably the most important people were going to see it. So that is a big deal. But it is also a big deal that there's $6 trillion dollars that is likely to move into yield bearing assets and investments, one of which will be Bitcoin, some of which will just be yield bearing. And there's probably a lot more than that in money market funds that get unlocked a lot. There will be a lot of liquidity in stable coins. It is much larger than people realize. It is transformational, but it doesn't happen tomorrow. So if you're asking yourself is this why crypto is rallying today? Maybe, but we're in order, Matt. We're a zero off in terms of, in terms of it. It's sort of like I pointed out this, you know the Bitcoin ETFs, remember when Galaxy came out with that report and they said that we'd be 15 billion in the first six months and 27 billion in the first year. In the first year to 18 months. And people laughed them saying they were too aggressive and turned out that they were underestimating what happened by, by 3/4.
- [55:34]
Dave Weisberger
Every over aggressive estimate was underestimated.
- [55:37]
Scott Melker
Massive. Yeah. I'd say the same thing is true with stable stablecoins. And we're not even going to talk about clarity, what that would do for the market out. I think clarity for the market is a much more nuanced conversation and, and deserves conversation that we'll talk about when it comes up. So I don't want to do it. The stable coin bill is undeniably bullish for the entire ecosystem and it's undeniably bullish for Treasuries. It's one of the reasons I think that Mike's going to ultimately be right on the Treasuries, which I, which I, I disagree with him at the time. But more I think about it, I think that you're going to end up being right and that's been bullish for.
- [56:09]
James Lavish
The dollar because more buyers of Treasuries across the world are buying dollars. That's right.
- [56:15]
Scott Melker
It just means the dollar is replacing. I mean if you think wonder why the ECB is what they are. I mean they realize that the Euro is getting marginalized in favor of the dollar for spending. It's just fact. And, and they're not a big fan of it, but it is what it is and I think you're gonna see a lot of that.
- [56:32]
Mike McGlone
It's so delightful to see the things we discussed when the first Trump administration really pushed back on this, this awesome technology. I remember when Cy Sheffield came on with Laura Shin, was it 2019? He's with Visa. He said, yeah, we're using stable coins. I'm like, why wouldn't you. This technology is awesome. You can transmit, transact and close out your dollar balances instantly privately. And then world has gone for the dollar through this organic technology. So this is a key thing that's kept me from the very beginning. I remember 2018 pointing this out when there was only two $2 billion of stable coins. Now we're about 250. It's the most enduring trend. And the key thing is what are they? It's a tokenization of the dollar. What's next? The tokenization of everything. It's got a thing is what's going to bring real world assets on chain and people are going to look at things like dogecoin and say yeah short that buy something where I can yield something decently and ten times the leverage on the low equity and the on the low voltage stuffs it's yielding something and short the stuff. That's just bs so but to me this is also the key thing. I also remember I really enjoyed writing years ago when people called bitcoin peer to peer cash. Satoshi NAKAMOTO it's not, it's digital gold. And this to me is proving that why would you bother the transit to pay for bitcoin? Pay for anything with bitcoin you don't pay for with gold unless you have to you put that aside and hold as an investment and then use dollars. And to me this is accelerating that process of digital gold. I get it. But there's times a deep thing I also like to end with is bitcoin is still clearly a risk on asset. It's up. Stock market's up. Got it. Gold is typically more of a risk down off acid. That's why everything's kind of discombobulated this year. We'll see how things change by then. This year should be more clarity. I just hope it's not that negative clarity. I'm McGloom has been talking about but I enjoyed that in the, in the Bloomberg we have these chats one chat. They started calling me McGloom last year. Now they've called me McGold. I'm like yeah I'll take that that rather than the getting bitcoin long.
- [58:29]
Dave Weisberger
I like my gold. I lost my connection there for a second. I like my gold. We can go forward that one. Go forward with that one.
- [58:36]
Scott Melker
Yeah I I the only point in the in that rant that I actually disagree with is is I think that I would generalize if, if Elon makes doge the payments mechanism and and something inside X you know that's what, that's what their bulls are having their hat on. I I why don't you just I think you should switch your your commentary to fart coin and then then, then we're not going to argue with the point though that assets that have real value that can generate real economic return to token owners will do well, I don't care whether they're securities or utility. It doesn't matter to me. It's value and, and this rotation towards value and rotation, you know, to that will be very real over the next few years if these rules all happen, and I believe they will. And so that doesn't mean none of the tokens that are out there other than Bitcoin are going to zero. I am not a maxi. I do not believe that. I think that that's absolutely ridiculous. But does it mean that there are quite a few, in fact millions, if you want to use your thing. If you count all the pump fund, which by the way, we can't ignore pump funds. And you know what happened over the.
- [59:44]
Dave Weisberger
Weekend, I had that queued up too. But you know, you just run out of things to talk about. We talked about the fact that this might be the harbinger for whether there's going to be good news for all coins or bad news.
- [59:53]
Scott Melker
Well, this is why all kinds. I think this is why there's a rally today. I think this is why there's a rally today. All the doomers and gloomers in the crypto Twitter, they're saying, oh, all coins is dead. Oh, there's no more money. Oh, everything is going into, you know, real world. It's like, well, yeah, but they're still. Those animal spirits are alive and well and when they get woken up, stuff like that can happen and pumped up fun happens to be. I don't know what the tokenomics are because they're not available to the U.S. i didn't analyze it. I have no idea if you're holding, you know, if you're holding, you know, something that's completely worthless or if you actually hold something that will give you a share of the profit of what the platform makes. I don't know. But the platform is undeniably profitable and people like to gamble. It's like owning a piece of a casino. I mean, you know, Caesar's World, whatever, whatever you think of it has value. I mean, maybe they overextended themselves with real estate, etc. So I'm not talking about the stocks pockets. I know they did that. I actually know a friend of mine helped put that original deal together that set them on that garden path. But the truth is that there's value and that is what people are looking at in the alt season. And I'll double down on what I said last, last week or two weeks ago that most of the people in the crypto sphere invest don't really understand financial markets. They invest in, they. They see a thing, they say I like this thing and they buy it. As opposed to, I think this thing at this price makes sense because this other price is going to happen. Now that's not true with bitcoiners, but it is absolutely true with a lot of altcoin investors. Now there are many savvy altcoin investors, don't get me wrong. But there are quite a few people who are just follow the leader. And that's when things get really dangerous. And that's when you know the, the sell. When they're yelling you got to sell. You know, you know the stuff that Mike says, you have all these great quotes. I'm not, I don't wanna. I don't want to say it better. But that's when you have to listen to that because it. And we're just not seeing it.
- [61:39]
Mike McGlone
It.
- [61:40]
Scott Melker
I mean retail, really, this is the first weekend we've seen retail. We'll see if it continues.
- [61:46]
Dave Weisberger
1006. We gotta go. Although I have 50 more topics. Pump fun would have been a good one, but yeah, we can get into that when it's worth a third, you know. But man, I gotta tell you, the best content ever, when the four of us are all together and probably about twice as many people watching. So as nice as it is to have proxies for us, it's just. Just never the same. So thank you guys as always for showing up. Thank you everybody for listening and I hopefully it'll be all of us together moving into the future. Thank you gentlemen. Mike, Dave, James, see you next week. Bye.
- [62:21]
Scott Melker
Let's do that's dope.