← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
$125,000 Bitcoin & $4,000 Gold! The Beginning Of The Great Debasement?
01:04:21
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin hit $125,000, gold's about to hit.
- [00:04]
Dave
$4,000 and silver is about to make a new all time high around $50. Is this the beginning of the great debasement trade? And how are we supposed to know what markets are even reacting to when we're not getting any data with the government shutdown There is a ton to unpack today for Mac or Monday with James, Dave, Mike and myself. Let's go, let's do.
- [00:43]
James
Let'S do.
- [00:44]
Dave
Good morning everybody and happy macro Monday. We all know it's my favorite hour of the week. I can't speak for these three gentlemen but I think they enjoy it. I think so. I have a hunch. Oh yeah, I have a hunch.
- [00:57]
Mike
Super fun.
- [00:58]
Dave
So so much to talk about but none of it is data because the government is officially shut down which we discussed was likely to happen last Monday. We should have had some data last week and didn't get it. But none of that is stopping bitcoin, silver and gold from absolutely flying. Mike, you want to unpack that for us?
- [01:19]
Anna Wong
Yeah, you nailed it right away. It's all about the shutdown. Anna Wong, which we' saw no less was getting somewhat economically bullish last few weeks it flipped. She said we I flipped number one because of this shutdown that's going to cut rates in October and December and that's been a consensus with IRA Jersey our and what's on the you know the expectations that they're going to cut 25 the next two meetings. Number one reason is the shutdown. Both sides are digging in positions, uncertainty rising. She mentioned the negative print from ADP and and this justifies an insurance cut which is what the Fed's supposed to do. Be there when things, you know, you need insurance GDP losses due to the shutdown may be permanent. She's pointed out some of the housing, the vendors to the government, less income for federal government workers and things like that. Even I have a son who's a military officer and he might not even get paid. So that's kind of dicey. So we're switching over to our chief interest rates trend in just IRA Jersey. He said yeah markets all set up for another 50 base point basis points cuts this year at the next two meetings terminal rate has shifted to 3% a year from that we pointed it out a little while ago. Tens and thirty year auctions this week. He's still looking for that bullish deepener. Thinks it's just a matter of time that two year yields dropped to that 3% right now they're 359. Michael Casper, our equity strategist pointed out S&P5 earnings remain strong but unemployment training in wrong direction is not a good thing. Small caps remain much better value than large caps kind of their mark Market pulse index and the large gaps have is approaching manic. Audrey Child Freeman, our FX strategy pointed out the weaker yen with Takahashi getting elected first female in Japan. I find that someone shocking after having worked for the Japanese for many years, many years ago. I'm sure impressed with that. But she's certainly associated with expansionary monetary policy. So seen that little weekend today so not much different from her and me. My point was I put on my risk management hat I pointed out I got my FRM in 2006 which has been a long time ago. I've never really used it but as a risk manager I point I just pointed out gold is just so expensive here. If you've been lucky enough to be long gold through this run up $4,000 an ounce is supposed to be time that just taking off some of that risk particularly as we get towards the end of the year you got a lot of profits. And I pointed out the key thing I wanted to I know Dave pushes back on a lot and I've seen this a lot is I want to point out if you just take what have you me for me lately versus gold you take bitcoin versus gold. What have you done for me lately Bitcoin you have to go back to 2021. It's the flat line I pointed out during that period bitcoin is traded about three times the volatility yet same performance and Then also pointed versus the S&P 500 total return versus gold since 1997. It's a flatline yet S&P 500 typically trades a higher volatility. You don't see that from all those people pushing stocks. And this one pointed out part of that's how expensive gold's getting. Part of that means there's the paradigm shift kicking in and the things I see also from stock market volatility getting hammer crude oil just staying below that last year's low that I am remain very very concerned as we head towards the end of the year we might just get a pickup in volatility. I mentioned the one key thing that can bring this our wonderful government to end the shutdown is the stock market going down and telling them to like they did with tarp.
- [04:48]
Dave
All right. Right now we have the stock market looking to gap up on the open maybe we'll probably make another new all time high today as looked at that gold chart all time high silver sniffing an all time high bitcoin this weekend of course it made an all time high. Right we've got that right there and looks like it's climbing back at about 125,750 and interestingly at the same time yields are climbing. Last time I checked the Fed cut and yields are actually up from when that cut happened which was down here. Interesting environment. I mean James, what do you make of the fact that we're flying blind here with no economic data?
- [05:24]
Mike
So first of all, yeah, I mean people are expecting the investors are expecting the, the Fed to cut again because you know there's no new information. The ADP is, it's kind of a problematic number for the Fed. They don't really have control of you know the, they don't, they don't see through that as much. They do the, the typical data. So I think it's just status quo and status quo is concerned about jobs which means that they're going to cut 25 basis points. They may have held off until December if they had had different information. But we're not getting any data until the government something you said Mike. I do have a brother in law who's Terry also and they're paid but they're going to get their get caught back up once the, the government reopens at least on that side. Although Trump is taking advantage of, of it appears of the opportunity to just get rid of a bunch of fat and, and so he will cut some of that that honestly I don't know how really additive that is GDP anyways so not really concerned about that. The debasement trade is interesting and what's really interesting about is I just shared the screen Scott, is that you know you it JP Morgan's piece about the debasement trade and we've been talking about years so this is nothing new. This is nothing that is groundbreaking. What's groundbreaking about it is that the, the large, the, the the probably the strongest bank in the world is now being forced to recognize it. And they're, they're, they're actually having to, they're, they're having to advise their clients on this and include bitcoin in the conversation. So that is what's so important about the debasement trade that you're hearing about that J.P. morgan identified.
- [07:22]
James
Recently.
- [07:22]
Mike
And so what's, what's incredible about that is now you have Bloomberg actually reporting on it. Unfortunately the you know you still have, you know, Richard Henderson, maybe you can have a MIC meeting, a talk with them. But he's still just grouping bitcoin in with crypto. So the crypto rally, you know, but throughout the, throughout the article, and the only, obviously the only crypto that is charted is bitcoin, because that's the only one that can't be debased. And that's the, that's the key for people who end up reading these articles. And so, but what's really interesting about this is that bitcoin has a long way to go to catch up to this gold silver rally. And Mike, you've been right about this that, you know, gold is taken off and, and I'm not surprised, I'm not surprised that gold took off first. I wrote about this a few weeks ago that gold is the leading indicator for, for risk around the world. When you, you have a risk off trade, people are going to either gold or Treasuries, but they're going to gold. Because, Scott, you just pointed out the Treasuries are going up. The, the treasury yields are going up as we get a drop in rates. Why is that? Why is the Fed cuts rates? You have yields going up on the long end of the curve. Why? Because people are worried about inflation, which means that, that makes sense, that yields are going up, gold is going up, stocks are going up, Bitcoin's going up. And ultimately it's hard to tell what's going to happen with the housing market, but that might just go up too, because when you're cutting rates, it loosens up the supply and suddenly you've got the demand there and there's, there's capital looking for pockets to hide in while the government continues to just relentlessly debase the currency that all the Treasuries are based in. So that's a really big deal. I'm going to tee you up, Dave, for the rest of the conversation there.
- [09:21]
Dave
Yeah, I mean, just really quickly, Dave. So just to summarize, we keep asking the question, how can all these things go up? It makes no sense. And the answer is that the most powerful thing in the market is the debasement of the denominator, AKA the dollar. And therefore, everything can still continue to go up.
- [09:36]
Mike
And by the way, that's what investors are most worried about.
- [09:39]
Dave
They're most worried about they'll buy anything. They'll buy anything to be outside the dollar. Two things. First of all, on CNBC yesterday, there was an entire section on gold versus Bitcoin. And Bitcoin catching up to gold showing literally the charts of how gold goes up and then bitcoin goes up. So this has now reached escape velocity beyond our echo chamber. And then Dave, also this is just really interesting and goes to what you were just talking about guys. More cash is pouring into safety than risk, which I didn't realize. In the past 12 months investors funneled 854 billion into money market funds over 3x more than equities which saw just 269 billion inflows. Bonds drew 548 billion sitting between the two. This tells a clear story. Investors are parking record amounts in cash chasing yield and safety rather than market upside. And last I checked, bitcoin is also up in this. Also afraid to come down. You got to imagine that capital unlocks but Dave, go ahead, run.
- [10:34]
James
Well yeah, I think there's, there's two meta points here. Meta point number one and Mike kind of glossed over it quickly. A very very very important event happened this weekend. The J. It's not that she's a woman.
- [10:47]
Dave
Yes, that's Claren won the constructors.
- [10:50]
James
I hate to say it and and, and and you're going to get some hate mail from this Mike but that may be the ultimate and I understand where you're coming from because Japan is a much more misogynist society than us but it has not. The fact that she's a woman is not relevant. What is relevant is she is a nationalist and a We need to spend, spend, spend and debt is not a problem. That is a big ste change for the ruling party to actually be dragged into the same direction as the opposition toward eliminating and Japan with a debt of GDP of debt to GDP of over 200% that's saying something. So the amount of liquidity that could come out of the Japanese come from the Japanese market into the world could be extraordinary. And I also read this morning that at the same time that that's happening at the government level, Japanese private credit creation is hitting all time highs or at least near term highs. So all of that matters from a liquidity point of. So when you use the word the debasement trade, the currency being debased. No, it's all currencies and that matters. Right? You know Japan is one of the larger economies in the world. The stock market based on that election over the weekend which was a intra party election but will likely matter was up almost 5% today. When's the last time we had an s P rally of 5% in a day? When's the last time we had a bitcoin rally of 5% in a day. So when you start looking at a national, you know, stock market that is almost. And by the way, the yen did not devalue 5%. So this was not a pure, you know, just currency revaluation trade. This is a big deal in terms of a wall of liquidity coming in. And I will make the argument that this weekend as confirmed by what we're now seeing in the market now, it depends, we'll look, by the end of this show we'll know. But if we hold these levels right here, then the jump up in the weekend I will maintain was a sloppy trade by some large institutional investors who didn't use software like Coin Routes to implement their trade and they just pushed the market up too fast when they saw what happened in Japan. But it's a harbinger because a lot of institutional investors go say wait a minute, this is a very important change. And so that's what's going on. And I want to go back to gold for a second because I actually think that yeah, on a trading basis, short term term maybe gold will have this difficulty getting through the 4000 level, but 8% plus global debasement of fiat means gold is going nowhere but up. And it's probably still undervalued relative to financial assets. And as gold goes up, the ceiling for bitcoin goes up. So yes, it's been flat and so it really becomes interesting. I mean Robert, Infrastructure on Spaces over the weekend and I were having this conversation and what you look at in terms of the S P versus Gold, I basically say this is why a stock market sell off is not all that likely because really most of the S P trade, most of the risk asset trade has been the denominator changing, not the numerator. And so, and a consolidation into tech. But yeah, well, yeah, well, because people buy what they understand and they buy where earnings are being helped. And we're in the middle of, on the stock side, we're in the middle of, you know, the, the new industrial revolution with, with AI. Is that going to be, is that going to drive stupidity with people's narratives saying this is going to benefit? Sure, it will drive some stupidity. Is it going to massively improve corporate profits? Probably it's already doing it. Corporate profits are at an all time high relative to gdp. So corporations doing great individuals aren't. And a large part of what's driving these populist revolutions is to try to get a handle on that. And that's going to be an interesting trade, but I think it's really important from a macro point of view to look at this being short assets that could outperform. Debasing currencies is going to be the mantra that's going to take hold. And in that mantra, you ride that train. You don't get off it, you don't whatever. And that money market wall of money, which at best, at best could potentially slow the law. Most of the yields don't come close to the amount of debasement. You know, at best, it's a, it's a, it's a band aid on something that needs a tourniquet. So, you know, I think that people are going to start seeing that. I think they will see that as we get into the new fiscal year, depending on whether the new fiscal year is in the fourth quarter, depending on, you know, it. A lot of, A lot of funds close their books the end of October. Right. You know that that's just true. More probably close at the end of December. But watch those trades and watch these things evolve. Now, as far as, you know, the crypto bitcoin stuff, you know, look, we could go down this road again. It's not, it's not worth it. It's not worth it. The, the truth is bitcoin is still a young asset. It is still something that is maturing at a rapid rate. But I will point out and close with bitcoin volatility. The last time bitcoin volatility got to as low as it did as on the 30 day, as it did last month was August of 23. It is since then fight, you know, doing the course that you would expect if you're on the bullish side. Remember, everything you say about volatility, Mike, is true about stocks. But the one thing, and Jeff park confirmed this for me, so that's important. And he's one of the smarter people out there. Bitcoin is actually positively correlated to volatility, which this S P is completely. Is almost perfectly negatively correlated to volatility. So understand that when bitcoin volatility rises, it is more often because bitcoin is having a sharp rally as opposed to a sharp fall at a bare minimum. It certainly isn't a signal because we both know that if the Vix hit 50 and you asked me where is the S P, I would say 20 lower. I don't know. You tell me. If you told me that bitcoin's volatility goes from 1%, you know, to 2%, I would say where's Bitcoin probably 140, something like that. If volatility doubled, you would expect it and that matters. That's just, that is just the math. It could be both ways, but it is more biased toward the, the upside. So the market is, has been coiling for a while and if you go back to and watch a macro Monday from July, I said at the time that if bitcoin stays in this range and holds the 122 to 112 range and, and we're a little above it now. Have we really, you know, we'll see today, we'll see whether we're breaking out. I said if it holds that range for another three or four months and the fourth quarter could be explosive. Well, it did and it still could be. It's not confirmed yet. But understand that's what we could be looking at because the one thing we know is there is no fomo. Like even last night, right? We had all this action over the weekend. There was. If you look at first of all the funding rates on the perpetual swaps are below normal. So the, so the speculators are not confirming this move. This is coming from potential spot and we'll see where that's coming from. And if you look at the liquidations over the weekend, it's actually fascinating, right? So over, over the weekend you, you saw, I mean there was a slight uptick, but nothing. It almost is a blip on the chart in shorts being liquidated vis a vis longs. But if you look over the last 24 hours and we know the last 24 hours has been relatively bullish over the last 24 hours there's been more longs liquidated than shorts, even in bitcoin. Which tells.
- [18:39]
Dave
That's because people bought the all time high breakout and then it dropped.
- [18:42]
James
Right. But it's telling you that we're back up almost, you know, to almost where that was.
- [18:47]
Dave
You gotta liquidate them before you go. Right?
- [18:50]
Mike
But you're talking about the perps, the liquidating the per.
- [18:53]
James
I'm telling you, the speculators. If anything, there's almost no action. There's no, there's, there's nothing going on there. So this is, this is not a FOMO e kind of rally. There's no euphoria. This is the opposite of we saw when bitcoin blew up to, to both 60 and then down again and then 69 back, you know, a couple years ago. The point in the line that Mike always uses to start his charts. Remember those? You know that one, it's it's totally different than it was back then, then. And, and that's important because, you know, if this was a FOMO move, if, if liquidations were skyrocketing and funding rates were skyrocketing, I wouldn't be saying the stuff that I'm saying, but I do think it's, it, it, it does matter. This is the sort of thing that tells you that volatility could, there's, there's, there's tinder for volatility to go up much higher. And, and that is something that we need to understand and look at. And so Japan to me is a very big deal. And I think that the, the, the institutions who did buy, or whoever bought on the weekend while they did it stupidly, will probably make money. I think that, that, that there, that was more of a starter's pistol going off than it is a, a, you know, it is a, you know, kind of a shadow or a stupidity. It was the opposite of the sorts of things when you saw some of these liquidations that we've seen. Dumb, yes, but directionally accurate.
- [20:14]
Dave
And we're trading above the previous all time high which was 1 24, 5 33.
- [20:20]
James
Well, we'll see. We always get a different.
- [20:22]
Dave
But I was gonna say to what you always say, Dave, this is now the top of the range at resistance, give or take 500 bucks here and there.
- [20:30]
James
So yeah, I hate, I hate really short term trading predictions on shows like this first of all because a lot of people watch it on tape, you know, whatever, etc. It's just a bad idea. Yeah, but it is, but it is important to understand market structure and market dynamics and the, the supply demand is what's going to fuel Bitcoin, you know, and it's also important to look at all the others generally, generally when we've seen crypto rallies, to use the term generally, what you see is, is bitcoin is leads and everything else has significantly more volatility to the upside. And Bitcoin and ether both almost identical in terms of their 24 hour performance. Solana is almost identical of them within punchers. No, no multiples, no beta. Those things usually trade with beta. Right? And there's that. Of course XRP is breaking it's, it's beta. But that's okay because the, the narrative in SRP XRP blows basically compared to the narrative and others. And we could talk about why, but there's a lot going on here and I think that this is a far more fundamental climbing a wall of worry sort of market than it is anything else fair.
- [21:51]
Dave
Let me, let me make a point really quickly Dave because there are things that you will like because you always talk about how do we value an altcoin. We have no earnings. It's very hard to determine what they are. There is a sector that is wildly outperforming Bitcoin. This is BNB exchange tokens of course. But BNB has outperformed Bitcoin on a, I think a weekly, monthly, yearly, five yearly basically on every single time frame. But I absolutely have to take a look. Okay. X coin pulled the same thing the last like couple weeks. I hadn't even paid attention. But these are the few tokens out there, whether you like them or not, that have an actual utility that you can look at exactly how much is being burned. You can get a reduction on your trading fees. Those kind of things makes a lot more sense than other tokens. And maybe the market in some side of crypto is actually revaluing things that they can understand the metrics on for the first time in a very.
- [22:51]
Mike
Quickly. And something you were talking about Dave, like look people, when, when normal investors, everyday investors look at charts and they're trying to figure out where is this thing going. And now you're bumping against all time highs, right? Once you get through the all time highs, we talk about price discovery. Well, we talk about price discovery because there's no, there's no, there's, there's no structural liquidity that's sitting there waiting to you know, meet the other side of demand. So because you're at an all time high, it's searching for the price, the next price that you have sellers to step in. And often, you know, professionals will look at the charts and they'll say well, 125. Well the next, the next levels are going to be mental levels where people just mentally set their, their targets, their, their stop outs and their, where they're going to sell some, where they're going to take some profits off the table. 130, 150, 180, you know, like just then. So they're round numbers that people look at. The other thing that people look at is, or professional investors they'll look at and they'll say okay, where was the last real strong support level? Okay, say it's 108, right? Say it's a pretty strong support level. If you look on the weekly and they'll say well what's 25 up from there? And so it's about 135 and that's another mental level. So instead of 130, 135. Because you think well, if it gets up, I bought a lot at 108. So if. Or a lot, there were a lot of buyers that want to wait and they'll say well, up 25, I'm going to sell some. Up 50, I'm going to sell some. So, so those become levels as well. And that's where you find these levels. So it's not just like random liquidity comes in. These are, this is more of the personality of the stock and psychology of investors and where they've, where they've bought and where they're ready to get out. So it's difficult to tell. But that's why you have, that's why you have these jumps in price where there's just, there's pockets of illiquidity because there's nobody standing there ready to sell. And at, you know, say 127 or 132, it's like they're. You've got these levels.
- [25:02]
Dave
Yeah, yeah. To the number you like, right? That's my 4x.
- [25:08]
Mike
Right, yeah, exactly, exactly.
- [25:10]
James
You have the same thing going on in gold. Right. You know the difference is exactly the same thing going on in gold.
- [25:17]
Mike
I mean, except, except with gold there have been people sitting on this thing for decades and waiting for them.
- [25:23]
James
That's true, truly. But go ahead. When you get people like. But the thing about it, if you want to understand what makes rally sustainable and I'm not making fun of you Mike here because I totally understand what you said actually and I borderline agree with it on risk management. I mean it depends on what you're. Whether it's your target, etc. Etc. And there's in risk management depends on facts and circumstances for individual investors. And you're basically saying people taking profits. But the truth is that if you look at gold and its rally and put it in perspective of everything else, it seems at a very natural price point. And if you look at the direction of fiat globally and I am not a big brics de dollarization kind of guy, I think that most of the people who say that are out to lunch. Mike, Lost Internet. I was trying to tee you up. I think that the gold trade is really a factor of two things. It's a factor of people who continue to save in it. Not a huge amount of speculation and a grinding consistent buying from central banks around the world who need to hedge against dollars or whatever. They want to have more reserves. And it's pretty likely that Russia and China are adding to their gold reserves as well with their current account surpluses and so fading. That rally seems wrong except in the long run. In the short run, yeah, you're probably right. But I'm curious because, you know, from a valuation point of view, I mean, you guys have commodity strategists, what are they saying?
- [26:54]
Anna Wong
First of all, and gold, Our main commodity guy covering gold is Grant Spohr. I saw him in London a couple weeks ago. His models have been under underestimating this rally the whole way. But it's again, that's what happens when you have paradigm shifts. Models always are supposed to do that. But I wanted to show a few charts. First of all, I want to encourage everyone to listen to Scott's interview with Caitlin Long. And I listened to this week and it nailed it. And I the key thing I want to mention to you, if I can just share those charts, if Misha can do that, is what James I think is going to shift is bitcoin volatility going up on the way up. I think it's shifting more towards bitcoin volatility going down like S&P 500 on the way up and then it's just trading more at the S&P 500. So here's what I way I look at it and I'm putting on my risk management hat, take the current price of bitcoin. The gold right now it's like 32 ounces of Bitcoin per one ounce, I'm sorry, three ounces of gold per one ounce of Bitcoin. You have to go back four years. Now I know there's pushback, but you have to go back four years for the same level, the same time. The key thing, my risk manager, Spidey Senses says you got stock market volatility the lowest in five years. 60 day, the quietest correlation ever to all cryptos in bitcoin and to the S&P 500. And you got the S&P 500, the highest ever versus stock market cap, the GDP. I'm your risk manager, I say, hey, we've made some good money in this space. You have no absolute, absolutely zero risk going into fourth quarter to lose money there. By the way, you can replace a lot of those positions with options. I'll show you how. We used to do that a lot. And I want to show you one other thing. This is just taking gold divided by its 40, 50 and 60 month moving average. If you go back on the 40, the 4.
- [28:38]
James
Oh, am I the only one who.
- [28:40]
Anna Wong
Lost every month You Got. And there's parents. Yeah. Am I back? I don't know why that's happening. I'm at.
- [28:46]
Dave
But keep going, keep powering.
- [28:48]
Anna Wong
Okay, so the point. The point is this is not. This is a place prudent managers say thank you very much. It's been great to write. This thing we used to say in the market is give a little bit back to the market. Don't tempt the market gods. And this is a place you suppose say thank you market gods. I'll take some off the table if you don't as your mismanager. And we drop 20% in gold before the end of the year, which would mean nothing in the big picture. Sorry, you've been warned. That's coming out of your bonus. I mean I just thought of a risk manager running this is the way life is and Dave's last because we. And we know this how markets work. So I just also want to show you key thing I think changed in bitcoin. This is stuff we talked about 2008, the Bitcoin. This is Bitcoin volatility versus the. Versus gold. It's down. It's crushed at 2. It's the lowest ever. That's annualized 2.2 times. It's continuing lower. It's a different market than it was when they launched ETFs in 2017. And I'm sorry, futures and then ETFs. First one 2021 and then the big ones in 2024. Again, it's this key thing I point out is what has the market done for you lately? The bitcoin gold ratio. It shows me the mature market volatility is declining. Masses are in it. This is a big difference from the days we talked about years ago. And all those people that you. Those articles you wrote about, you say ask me about bitcoin now. They don't ask anymore. And that's why I point out this is the key things that's really shifted in the market is macro bigger picture. I just look at, you know, this is annualized the ounces gold rolling, the stock market rolling over versus ounces of gold. To me, as your risk manager, I say don't be short volatility here. Good luck. Yes, it could last for a long time. Don't belong the stock market here. And by the way, bitcoin has been its performance just to keep it simple has sucked versus gold for four years now.
- [30:30]
James
You want to. James, why don't you talk first? Because I know what I would say. I thought too much. So go for it.
- [30:37]
Mike
Well, look, you know, one of the, one of the things you have to take in consideration here is that that Bitcoin's only 15 years old, you know, a little bit over that. And I mean, and it's already a tenth the size of, of the entire market cap of gold. That's, that's just mind boggling. So why is that? Well, people are looking for pockets to hide in during these prolonged, you know, bouts of high inflation. The inflation's been over 2% for pretty much ever, you know, since the last, since the great financial crisis. And so when you have people who are just looking for somewhere to hide, of course they're going to hide in gold, but they're not hiding in treasuries. That's the, that's the really interesting thing here. So when you look back four years, I mean we are in an adoption phase in Bitcoin coin. It's only 15 years old. So it's going to continue to have plenty of people, Mike, who think about it exactly the same way as you are describing it, which is a risk on asset. It's still it, it is still in the, I would say the majority of investors think of it that way. I, I'm very confident that the majority of investors think of it that way. Probably the vast majority, probably 80% of investors think it that way still maybe even more. You know, especially the institutional investors, they just don't understand it yet. Why? Because you see these articles, they just lump it in with everything else. Just like you say, where there's thousands of other cryptos that they can be buying, it doesn't have to be Bitcoin.
- [32:22]
James
Right?
- [32:22]
Mike
And that, and that narrative continues. So the difference is when people start understanding, wait, why is Bitcoin staying here when all the other cryptos start to collapse? Or why is Bitcoin moving with gold behind it on a, on a lag? Why does it follow gold like this so closely? And that when you get that understanding, that's when you're starting to get, and you start getting articles like this out of JP Just remember JP Morgan's CEO describes Bitcoin as a scam, as a Ponzi worthless. As you know, he, he, I don't think he's used rat poison. He may have quoted Charlie Munger on it, but his bank put out a piece saying that it's part of the, the debasement trade that is like this is so important for people to understand that the rest of the, the street follows J.P. morgan in a lot of ways. Not all the not all the analysts, not all the bank, but they have to take their comments into consideration. It's a powerful bank. And you know, now you're starting to have that conversation. And so that's what's it not different this time. That's how bitcoin is evolving. Like it's taking time. I said this for a long time. It's going to take time. And, and that's why, that's why you're seeing this kind of price activity. As far as, you know, bitcoin versus the stock market. It's exactly what you said. It's the, it's, the attitude towards bitcoin has not changed much yet. And I disagree with you that people, everybody knows about it, everybody's heard about it, but they have no idea what it really is. They have no clue. I still talk to people that I've told bitcoin about four years ago and I, I used to think it's my problem that you know, that I am not explaining it properly. But then they come back at me with all article after article about how bitcoin is used for, you know, illicit activity. It's, you know, it's, it's a, it's a Ponzi scheme. There's no value to it. And I can, I can point to these articles on CNBC and Bloomberg and wherever else that, that proved me right. And you know, they just still have not, they just can't get their head around it being a different technology. And that takes time for people to understand that. So I completely disagree that it's saturated with interest. It's, it's had a lot of hits and on, on media but the, it's got the exact wrong narrative around it still. And so that's, that's what it is. And it'll, that'll continue to bump around and give people who understand it opportunity to do the debasement trade before it takes off over the next number of years. And just like Dave, I'm not, I don't like making short term price predictions in bitcoin. I mean, that's psychotic. This thing could be up or down $10,000 during the show. You know, and so that's not, that's just not something you ought to be doing. But looking at long term trends and understanding what's going on in the world, the geopolitical uncertainties, you know, I mean, look at France. That, I mean the political instability there is, is phenomenal and, and it's underrated how that's happening in Europe, Japan, that is a massive deal that Dave described. You have the female version of Trump in Japan now who's saying not, not only do we want, do we not want illegal immigration, she's going to take it a step further and saying we don't want any, like we don't want any immigration. So they're, I mean this, that is a major statement out of a world, you know, like the, the, a world of liquidity out there. And like Dave said the money printer is gonna burr out there because they are over 200, 250 plus debt to GDP and that's been the carry trade for the world for a very long time. And basically they just, you know, they just signaled that game on liquidity is coming out of Japan.
- [36:38]
James
Right. And, and by the way it, the notion of no immigration for an aging society as badly as Japan is, is probably incredibly self destructive.
- [36:48]
Mike
But which means what, which means. I didn't connect that point.
- [36:54]
James
It's, it means a lot of things but most importantly it means that they, you know, their retirement, they need to, they're basically. It's capital. Right. It's need for capital.
- [37:06]
Dave
Right.
- [37:07]
Mike
Which means. I didn't connect that dot. Which means that they must expand their GDP nominally.
- [37:13]
James
Right. So it's the same thing. I keep saying it. I, I love, I love it. It's. What is the real Trump policy? What is the real economic far right, not far right but right wing populism. It's grow baby, grow. It is the only way and it's what every government is engineering. The, the old expression don't fight the Fed is, is true but I would actually expand it to say don't fight the government when the governments are, are actively trying to manipulate markets. And they are all of them. This isn't just a U.S. phenomenon. They are, they are looking to manipulate markets. So what do they want? They want asset inflation in order to spur investment which will restrain consumer inflation. Which is why by the way this notion of giving retail stimmy checks would be utterly absurd and it's a terrible idea unless we know that we can. We are, look, if you do it.
- [38:10]
Dave
It'S good, we got midterms coming.
- [38:12]
James
But if you do that then you know, I can't even shorting any asset other than dollars and expecting that that money isn't going to flow into risk assets.
- [38:24]
Mike
Can you imagine if they give a thousand dollar, you know, two thousand dollar checks out again for, for.
- [38:30]
Dave
Yeah, I was gonna say you don't really need to imagine anymore.
- [38:34]
James
If they did that bitcoin would be a 200000 that's just a fact. I, I, I, I can't even remotely believe that we won't be that we won't get to the next round number I just it because it's just but I think it will be absurd and.
- [38:47]
Dave
I don't think Dave and I say meme coins would outperform bitcoin.
- [38:52]
James
Yes right you're right. I said speculative stuff. Yeah I met what I meant NFTS.
- [38:58]
Mike
Will be back baby.
- [38:59]
Dave
Yep I was lit that was the next comment was like buy a board ape now if you think we're getting.
- [39:04]
James
But let's talk about the real story here because we didn't mention one story there we have two announcements this morning which are showing what is actually going to happen and another very big driver of prices in in our crypto world. We have galaxy announcing Galaxy 1 and we have Ondo announcing that they bought broker dealers and basically Paul Atkins is smiling because what you're seeing now are two companies and this is going to become a trend that are going to offer vertically integrated with and Galaxy's case because I signed up although I'm waiting for my ID to be verified it's in a queue it's using Cross river bank they're going to give you an integrated checking account brokerage account and crypto account now with stable coins and understand as those go into the payment rails that is going to take over from the legacy banking system and it won't just be Galaxy Galaxies is just were smart and got their their their piece of the pie first but if you aren't paying attention to the fact that that every brokerage platform who can e trade's doing it, Robinhood's doing it, Galaxy's doing it it are going to be going after a vertically integrated home solution for people to provide enhanced yields, payments and investments all in the same platform. You're not understanding what this means the the notion of automated sweeps and where you're you're saving it's going to make saving in Bitcoin dramatically easier it's going to make saving in crypto dramatically easier. Investing in stocks vis a vis payments dramatically easier. It's going to speed up the whole process just wait for stable coins to be underneath it and it's 247 compared to name that other bank you know Citibank, you know you want to try to do an investment on Saturday not going to happen. Try to seven in the evening not going to happen. Galaxy will be able to offer that I don't know what they're doing I haven't signed up yet. It's a very big deal.
- [41:00]
Dave
I was letting you finish, but ask a question. They're offering 8% premium yield on cash for US accredited. Excuse me. For US accredited investors, 4% annual yield on high yield. Cash counts obviously. All those other things you mentioned. Where is 8% premium yield coming from for Galaxy and Where is over 10 pre yield coming from? From Coinbase. Now, because these are Celsius and Voyager level yields. I'm not saying the same. I am not saying the same. I'm just saying.
- [41:31]
James
I don't know the answer. But what's the yield on. On the. On sailors? Was it STRF? I think it's around 8%, right? 8 to 10.
- [41:40]
Dave
STRC.
- [41:41]
James
STRC. It could be that. There's lots of places that you could do it. The question is, is what credit are you taking? And you have to dig under the covers to understand.
- [41:49]
Dave
The question is, do you think this is your bank account or do you realize that you're making.
- [41:53]
Mike
You could have Galaxy. I don't know what Galaxy's doing, but you could have Galaxy getting part of the, the interest back. If they're investing in some of those deposits, if they're investing them in USDT or usdc, they could have individual agreements with Tether or.
- [42:13]
Dave
I'm not saying there's anything we don't know. We're definitely Back to the 8:10 part of the cycle.
- [42:18]
James
Well, but, but it's. But there is that. But there are instruments who are paying that. And look, the devil's in the details. Details. I am hopeful. Don't know. Once again, because I haven't gotten the sign up, I will find out. I am hopeful there will be disclosures that will describe it because you can. There are products. Right. You know, if the problem with Voyager and all those other ones were when they first started, it was being generated because people were willing to pay that to borrow Bitcoin and they were using it for that. And then that changed because of the arbitrage is going away because of fireblocks. I've already explained this a million times. We could rerun it. Anyone who cares, I'm happy to explain it. But they then all went off in different directions. Voyager did it by selling, you know, debt to a. I don't know what's what, what, what credit rating we would have.
- [43:07]
Dave
Voyager gave $600 million with no collateral to Three Arrows Capitals, right?
- [43:11]
James
So you know, triple C, sub, you know, whatever idiotic loan. In the case of Celsius, they decided to fund an entire prop trading operation and pass it on. I am, I would be remarkably stunned if Galaxy, if you. If they weren't willing to disclose, roughly speaking, where this.
- [43:28]
Dave
They'll disclose it.
- [43:30]
James
And I would also say that if it changes, they will adjust it down right. As opposed to what those guys did. So they'll do it the right way. And I think all these other ones will do the same thing. So it's really a question of that, you know where you're coming from. Just, just to be clear, if you're getting more interest than you are from U.S. treasuries at the same duration, there is counterparty risk, full stop. And you need to understand it. It might be worthwhile counterparty risk, but there is counterparty risk. And you do need to understand that. And that's why disclosures are so important. So, you know, it's like Mike and I and James all tell you, there is no such thing as a free lunch. You're not getting it for free, but there are ways of doing it. I mean, or leverage.
- [44:11]
Mike
Risk or leverage.
- [44:12]
James
And by the way, they're also probably making it like Coinbase, they offer, you know, if you stake Solana with Coinbase, they take half, right? You know, they pay. They pay out an apy. They're taking a very healthy spread on their staking program. I know because I have some stake there.
- [44:28]
Dave
Dave. We do have one more story, by the way, that could be driving things today. I don't know if that's how this is going. Unmist, but Grayscale has added staking to both their eth and soul. We have. We officially have staking ethereum and Solana ETFs, ETPs trading as of today.
- [44:44]
Mike
This is, this is just teeing up, Mike, this stuff.
- [44:47]
Anna Wong
So.
- [44:49]
James
Okay, Mike, I hope your Internet's better go well.
- [44:53]
Anna Wong
I enjoy. This is a great. So I picture us all sitting in a trading desk, which some of us have done. You sit around or in a hedge fund, we all have different positions and we've all had a great year. And one of us had a great year just being invested in the silliest, stupidest, almost ancient rock in history. It's up 50%. And that one person had half the volatility the rest of you. And the risk manager comes over and says, knock, knock, knock. It's a great year. You lock in. You're supposed to lock in me. That's the sentiment we're getting now. And we should be, because let's not underestimate the key lessons of what you're pointing out. What we generally Anticipate, don't, doesn't occur. Everybody's saying the same thing. Everybody's bullish is you have to be very careful in those environments. And that's when the risk manager, which I've always been kind of astute as it comes out and says, hey, let's manage some of that risk. Let's switch to drifts, locking some of those profits. Don't be stupid. When we get normalization, it's not a when, it's an if. Maybe it doesn't happen this year, but that's where we're getting to these stages now. I just sense the kind of bullishness I remember in 2017 and some of the peaks in 2021, 22, certainly in 19, nine in the stock market. And there's always a reason. So let's forget about the reason, point out where we are, what it means. We have this government shutdown going down, shutdown going down. And I have to over. I think it's going to really matter. I don't think it's going to stop. Certainly if you listen to that interview with Caitlin Long now this is my take after 61 days that we have a very emboldened president and he says it's a good thing. And I don't think what's anything's going to stop unless beta goes down, goes and makes and forces them to the negotiation table. And this is where I'll now. And that's what gold's predicting. And you know, record highs in a very high volatile asset like bitcoin is great. But just imagine the year if the s and P500 wasn't up 15% and we're going to get that when it's down 15% or even maybe this year. And that's why I just say this has been a great year for those invested overweight Long gold and you had half the volatility. So just all the other stuff to me is noise. And you got to be careful the noise.
- [46:57]
Dave
Mike, you have a chart there. Do you want me to bring something up?
- [47:00]
Anna Wong
No, I don't want to know you with more charts. I'll show you one. Because this is something I've had inkling for a decade partly because I used to work, I used to be in a sell side of this product. Glitter is just a basket of precious metals. You take the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index, which I was instrumental in launching at Bloomberg. You have to go back to 2017 for a flatline of this basket of all these great crypto assets that everybody's trading on their phones for nothing. Which is great, a lot of fun. And divide that by just a simple basket of precious metals. Gold, silver, platinum plate. Now people are starting to realize the value of just four precious metals versus 21 million cryptos that you can trade. It's great, trade them. But at some point that's gonna be a problem. And this is why point is a problem. When you get, you just have to have this. This has to keep going up. Stock market has to keep going up. That's not a trade you want to be in anymore. I don't think when it was cheap, sure, but now here you want to look for alternatives. Even gold's getting expensive here. And that's why I think the only thing I have left if this goes down is T bonds. And that's the number one thing I've been wrong on for two years.
- [48:01]
Dave
Why are yields still going up even as the Fed cuts? Given the mechanics? I'm just saying it's hard to get excited about bonds.
- [48:10]
Anna Wong
That's the key thing.
- [48:10]
Dave
That's why you can't manipulate them up.
- [48:12]
Anna Wong
That's why on a 1 to 10 scale on a global basis for macro, the 10, the 10 is one thing. The US stock market has to keep going up. So if we get just a little 5% correction, that 4% yield in a 10 year it's going to drop. That support is going to drop to resistance. Bitcoin will drop 20% easy. Copper will probably drop 20% easy. That's an if statement. But again it's the whole that we're that elevated. That's my point is you're cutting rates. The consensus is yes, it's stock market goes up and I just remember two thought that feels to me exactly like 2007. And it took me a while to make that money back. But that peak after the Fed cut was tough. And then it just went down 55% s and P500 to that low in 2009. I feel the same way now. The thing is things are so much more expensive. We didn't have cryptos back then. It was, you know, so as your risk manager you've had a great year lock in and even on gold.
- [49:05]
Dave
So you're saying like that's my point.
- [49:07]
Anna Wong
Is when gold's that expensive, everything's got a problem. And so that's why I just say as I just had to put my risk manager spidey senses on and I'm writing to write up, waiting to hopefully publish on it tomorrow is just get.
- [49:19]
Dave
Out so you can't go to cash. So that leaves the last place being bonds.
- [49:24]
Mike
Yeah, but here's the funny thing is though, the gold, gold's different though because gold's being bought by central banks.
- [49:29]
Anna Wong
It has been. That's the point. Okay, I got it. But it's the key thing. Those are we, those are things that we pointed out.
- [49:34]
Mike
You're not going to go take profits. It, they're just, they're not going to go.
- [49:38]
Dave
Exactly.
- [49:39]
James
But sorry, I just wanted, I, I just got approved for Galaxy. The 8%. The, the 8% yield comes from a note written from Galaxy Digital Holdings Limited. It is not, they explicitly say it's not FDIC insured. It is a security, it's a Reg D security. It is effectively a bond. I'm sure if I read farther I will find out how senior it is on their cap table. But effectively what they're doing is they're saying, listen, we can deploy capital effectively within our digital, within our digital plate. You know, we're. Our cost of carry, our cost of funding is probably higher than 8% for the balances they're using. For people who don't understand they can.
- [50:27]
Dave
Lend it at 12% and give you 8. Right?
- [50:29]
James
Well no, it's not about lending, it's about if you are a, a broker, a brokerage firm. If you run, I used to run a prop desk. So I understand this. You have capital. So I ran a, A, a long short strategy. It was long whatever and a short whatever. At a certain amount you have to pay for the capital the bank uses. Now we, I was at a triple A, you know, Citibank, it was the last place. And even at two Sigma it was extremely high, you know, on, on in terms of credit rating. And so you're paying something over prime for anything. If you're Galaxy, you're probably paying more over prime. I don't know what's the prime rate now for, you know, you know, for, for this sort of stuff. What's the, what is that for funds? I had to guess, I'd say somewhere in the six, seven. So if you're paying two or three over earning eight is probably a good. Paying eight is probably good. And so this is probably a way to decrease galaxies funding costs as rates come down. That API will almost certainly come down unless it's, unless it's contractual, which I mean it could be.
- [51:32]
Dave
And by the way, and I'm not saying it's a comparison to Voyager and Celsius. Voyager actually would have been fine if they had just gone down on their rates right? So the competition and the refusal because they were signing up customers to go down on their rates and lose customers in the race against these other.
- [51:50]
James
Right. So I mean understanding and knowing about how company is working. This is a very logical product. It's not crazy and, and you have to understand it but you do need to understand what you're investing in. People can understand it. I personally think that it could make a lot of sense. It does have a 60 day lockup etc so you know it's, this is not a crazy product. This isn't, you know people are going to say that it is today. I, I could guarantee it because people that's going to be.
- [52:17]
Dave
When you read 8% premium yield on cash given it's a credit credited, you should understand your Average person's like 8% yielding bank account. Sweet.
- [52:25]
Mike
I wanna. So before we, because we only have a few minutes left, let's give some alpha to the, to the, the people who are listening. Mike, I want to ask you something because this is really important and we get asked this a lot. You know we talk about gold, we, and we talk about buying gold and you can buy gold coins, you can go to you know, different places to buy coins. But a lot of people are buying it in their, their IRA or their, their 401k or whatever it is and, or just their investment account that they have over at Fidelity or Schwab and they buy something like gld. So what, how do you see the relationship of GLD versus Spot? Because this is a really important thing for people to understand.
- [53:08]
Anna Wong
So it's one of those things. The gold bugs will be all over. Particularly people who have to buy it and put in their underwear, joke drawer or a safe deposit box. It's a very unlikely, unusual event for that to ever break down. GLD holds the actual physical gold or to have an issue and it's insignificant if we ever get that bad. I like to point out a quote from having a conversation about the same thing. Getting bullish gold 10 years ago with my son who was in the US military. Military at the time. He says if it gets that bad, dad, I think I'd rather have guns and ammo.
- [53:43]
James
Yeah.
- [53:43]
Mike
By the way, stockpile of food right.
- [53:47]
James
In my, in one of my accounts. And I noticed iron trading up 12 today at 50 over almost 57.
- [53:56]
Mike
Yeah, well that's an energy trade.
- [53:58]
James
No, no, that's a, that's a vertically integrated AI provider trade.
- [54:03]
Dave
Exactly.
- [54:03]
Mike
Which is energy because they have.
- [54:06]
Anna Wong
I'm going to expand that one thing what GLD is and what gold futures are is they try have a basis to the actual physical. And that's my problem with cryptos. I love cryptocurrency crypto dollars and stable coins. There's a basis to Treasuries, but everything else is just a number on the screen that you hope is going to work. And that's the problem. I'm worried. We're at the point now when stock markets goes down, we get the purge and then it'll be time to buy crypto assets.
- [54:34]
Mike
And the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- [54:36]
James
Because when you talk about crypto is versus virtual and doesn't have anything physical. Understand that most of gold's price, at least 80%, probably much more, has to do with the same monetary premium that we are talking about vis a vis Bitcoin. And in Bitcoin's case it's, it's negligible at this point because it's, it's so cheap relative to what it would be if in fact it had a monetary premium. That's the issue. It's, it's, you can't look at, at gold vis a vis platinum and not understand that gold has outperformed platinum's so much over the last five to 10 years because of monetary premium. And monetary premium is kind of animal spirits. It is, it is animal spirits, there's no question about that. But gold has had those animal spirits for 5,000 years. Before that Seashells had it for over a thousand years. And you know, then there's also the isle of Yap with the big rocks and you know, mankind, ever since they went from a barter economy to wanting to have something that you could use to store value in between transactions to allow us to transact and compare and, and have a functioning economy, have always needed something they believed in to transact in. And that belief creates a value above and beyond any physical instantiation. Unless you, you understand that, then you, we, we have no basis for, for, for it. Now does that justify Fart Coin? No, it does not. Does that justify even Ethereum? No, it does not. Ethereum should be valued based on what you believe the Ethereum network will be worth. Same with XRP or anything else. Bitcoin is different. And while they are all crypto in the sense that they're all using cryptographic technology, that's where the, that, that's where it ends. Now we have major correlations in the markets and Mike, you are correct to point this out, which is when people make money in Bitcoin and they take profits on Their speculation, they plow it back into as Scott mentioned before, you know, if we ever stimmy checks, where's it going to go? It's going to go into Doge, it's going to go into crap because people like lottery tickets. Is there any one of us who haven't don't get, you know, stupid tweets at you saying well you can't make generational wealth if something's only going to go up by 10 times. Right. And so you have that and that's, that's the same thing that propels, that propels the, the stock market. I mean, you know, it's exactly.
- [56:58]
Anna Wong
And it's human nature to be trying to be a lamb. Look at me. I want to make generation wealth like everybody else did in the last few years or 10 years in Bitcoin in stock market. That's when it's usually. And I just point out how expensive things are expensive, the gold is expensive, the stock market is and how relatively cheap US Treasuries are. So when you're running that prop desk which we both sat on, when you have, you know, client your traders taking some profits where they put the money, I suggest putting in Treasuries and sit back and just the hardest thing for risk, ask it risk manager or for a trader to do is to not trade. And sometimes you're supposed to just get in cash and sit back and watch and it's. This is one of those times I think.
- [57:34]
Mike
Okay.
- [57:34]
James
And then.
- [57:36]
Mike
The flip side of that, and that's a good place to end here and Scott is that, you know, I don't ever advise anybody that they're going to get rich quick on Bitcoin.
- [57:47]
Dave
Me too.
- [57:47]
Mike
Just like you wouldn't advise them that you're going to get rich quick on gold. This is a way to not get poor slowly. That's it, that's that. That's all you're doing and you're gonna have to hold on to it for a very long time. But you can get poor pretty slowly if you're holding on to Treasuries that have negative yields and you're sitting in cash that has neck that is just melting away in your, in your bank account. As far as a trade. Yeah, long term bots, they could come down quite a bit. Especially if we, the yields could come down quite a bit and you make a bunch of money on the 10, 20, 30 year bonds. If you, if we have some sort of event that, that does push the market to sell off strong. So that's that's that is something. Yeah.
- [58:32]
James
I want to take the other side of that because I'm tired of people saying, I mean, I understand what you're saying from the perspective. Only.
- [58:37]
Mike
Only if it's not. Only if it's not a. Only if it's not a credit event that is threatening the.
- [58:43]
James
No, I want to say something different. So if you're, if you look at, at the success stories of all the people who really made it big in the last industrial revolution, you know, Andrew Carnegie and others, you know, people who, who did it. Well, what they will all say is they saved their money. They saved for a long period of time, they took it and then they invested it and took a risk. If you, but that idea that you could put money into savings and it could compound and you could make money disappeared when we decided to go to negative real interest rates, which we've had for 20 of the past 25 years.
- [59:21]
Dave
The very notion, yeah, go ahead.
- [59:23]
James
If you save in Bitcoin, not only will you do better than Andrew Carnegie did in his passbook savings account, you will, you will do significantly better if it in fact is right as a savings vehicle to build wealth, to be able to then use it to take the risk that you want to take. Make if you have a business idea is possible to save, to actually create wealth slowly is also possible. It is not a lottery ticket. That is the important point.
- [59:51]
Dave
That's the point.
- [59:51]
Mike
That's right.
- [59:52]
James
And so that's the way to look at it. I think you, you people have been, we have had as a society no way for savers to get ahead for a long time without having professionally managed money. And most of it has been moved into the Mag 7 and risk. And what we're saying is there, there is an alternative here. And, and people still choose lottery tickets. Mike is right. He's 100% right. People will always, human nature is they look for lottery tickets. Right. I would still say professionally managed if you have the right professionals. Makes sense. But, but Bitcoin is that savings vehicle and that's the one thing I recommend to people and they go, oh well, when would I sell it? And I'm like, if you're thinking that way, don't. Right. You know, I'm not going to tell you how to market time. What I will tell you is savings over a long period of time is the most logical course that. And, and I put my money where my mouth is. I mean, John Deaton and I talk about this all the time. This is how I save. Right. It's this, it's the same.
- [60:49]
Dave
The very notion that you need to hire a professional person to not lose money means that your money is not really money insidious.
- [60:57]
James
Correct. That's, that's the advertisement and that's the one thing I'll say. And that transcends everything we talk about on the show, which is really more shorter term macroeconomics. And there, the most important thing is liquidity. And, and I don't see any sign of global liquidity dropping. I mean, you know, it would, there could be a black swan. Don't get me wrong. I mean it could happen. I mean more likely we have white swans. There are more likely. It seems like there's more likely white swan events. But we got black swans. We have two wars going on. If both stopped, that would be a massive white swans. They both, both accelerated out of control in the other way. Those will be black swans if nothing changes. Well, I mean, who knows?
- [61:35]
Dave
But I don't think they're gonna be black swans. I don't think wars matter anymore.
- [61:39]
James
Oh, no, that's not true. That's not true.
- [61:43]
Dave
Where's the stock market? And where are those two wars that were started?
- [61:47]
James
Oh, well, no, but none of those wars haven't done anything yet.
- [61:50]
Dave
I mean, they become a world war.
- [61:51]
James
We haven't seen anything major impacting global supply chains or global food supplies or global energy.
- [61:59]
Mike
Which goes back to Mike's comment of guns, guns and ammo.
- [62:03]
James
That's right. Exactly right.
- [62:06]
Dave
And Mike's there. Yeah. Guys, 1006. We stayed over. We did it again. James is sitting in the light. You know, James, light out. You know, we've had a good day, guys. That was amazing as always. Yeah, James, we can watch. We know what time it is on the west coast based on James and sun rising.
- [62:25]
Mike
Sun is up. Let's go guys.
- [62:27]
Dave
Another incredible show. Thank you so much. I know that we will all be back for another macro Monday next week and I think the ending of that show is exceptionally profound. So I hope people watch it again. It's not always a conversation about what's happening in the news today or what might be driving prices. It's important to remember why you might want to own some of this very, very long term or something. If you don't believe in this, own something because your money is not really money. That's all we got for you guys today. We will see you next week. Thanks, Dave. Mike.
- [62:57]
Scott Melker
James, if your mobile number was stolen and your passwords were reset, would you even know it until it was too late? Your crypto wallets, exchanges, email, bank, cloud accounts. Gone because someone took over your phone number and hijacked your two factor authentic authentication. This is called a SIM swap attack. And in the crypto world, it's one of the most devastating ways to get hacked.
- [63:18]
Dave
It's not rare.
- [63:18]
Scott Melker
It happens every single day. That's why I've personally been a customer of Afani for years. In fact, I've been with them since before it was even called Afani. When I was the victim of a SIM swap and my friend Charlie Shrem introduced me to the CEO and founder Haseeb, I trusted them with my security first and because I believed in it so much, I later became an investor in the company. Company as well. Afani is built to stop SIM swaps, protect your privacy, and back you with $5 million in insurance just in case. They even include complimentary international data roaming so you can stay secure but also stay connected. All around the world, top crypto investors, traders, influencers, public figures and financial institutions use Afani. Because one attack can be so, so costly. Afani is offering a discount for our community. And to learn more, go to afani.com ScottMelker to get a secure mobile service.
- [64:06]
Dave
With peace of mind.
- [64:07]
Scott Melker
That's E F A N I Com Scott M E L K E R. You can also find the link in the description and show notes. In crypto, security isn't optional, it's survival.