
Loading summary
Dave
That's dope.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
All right. Hi everyone. Welcome to the Wolf of All Streets with Scott Melker. But he is not here today, as you can tell. So I'm Molly Jane Zuckerman. I'm Blockworks senior newsletter strategist and I'll be running today's, today's live stream. So what if you guys can go around, say hi to everyone and then we can just pop right in.
Dave
Hey everyone, go for it, Go for.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
It simultaneously, at the same time. One, two, three, go.
Yago
Yeah, okay, I'm done.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Great. Next.
Dave
Yeah, I mean this morning's conversation is obviously interesting given that we saw GameStop not just decide to put me into bitcoin as a reserve asset, but ape into the microstrategy strategy, which I think deserves commentary for those who understand, you know, what the difference is. Do they have 4.5 billion in cash that they potentially people put into Bitcoin, you know, savings. But they are going to raise another 1.3 billion using their volatility. That is strategy that quite a few companies can use. And you know, the implications market are fairly interesting and market looked at it and yaw. Which I think is indicative of I'm being hyper focused on Trump and tariffs and everything else. But I'm curious what your. Because your clients who actually in this particular case.
Yago
Can I just ask, is Dave cutting in and out for everyone?
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Yes, cutting it out a little. I got the main gist though. Dave, you can, yeah.
Dave
Audio just like.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
A little robotic in the pauses. But you can think about that while I'll turn the question to you guys. So like Dave said, GameStop announced this new strategy and the market yawned. Do you think that it's just because of Trump and tariffs or do you think that people are over this bitcoin strategy already before it's almost even really started? Because this is the first example outside of strategy as far as I know.
Yago
Well, it's not the first outside of strategy. There's a number of companies who are attempting the strategy and in fact there's a number of companies in multiple different countries. So we've seen this strategy being deployed by companies being traded on the Japanese stock exchange, the Stange, the French, the English, I'll say first big American, then.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
To make myself sound less uninformed, the first big public American. Anyway, continue.
Yago
Yeah, my, my sense is that right now overall bullish news is not impactful across the entire market. Not just crypto, but the all, all markets. There's a huge amount of uncertainty in the market right now. And so what we've seen is hundreds of billions of dollars from funds, in particular hedge funds have been removed from the market, are no longer in the market and have gone to cash. And that is dampening any sort of ability for the market to react, especially in the equities market, to any news, not just this news.
Josh
Yeah, I mean I'll add, obviously the idea of more companies buying Bitcoin should theoretically be good to good for Bitcoin's price. But I think to Iago's point, obviously you have a lot of uncertainty. But also there are, you know, and this is no hate on GameStop, but GameStop is a mostly dead company.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
I was going to say it's like a meme, it's like an Internet meme, but it's like a brick and mortar Internet meme. That makes sense.
Josh
Yeah. I mean I'm sure they make some money and they have some cash reserves and you know, they're a real company. But this is not Apple. This is not, you know, Tesla going out there and buying Bitcoin again. Right. It's, it's GameStop. And so I think, look, the market did run up. I mean we, we got a temporary run up to about 89k but there is a lot going on from a macro perspective as well and from a regulatory perspective that's dampening this.
Dave
Well, I, I can. By the way, is this better? Because I'm just. Yeah, just using the. Yeah, just whatever. In any case, I disagree. I think that actually GameStop is as easily as real a company as MicroStrategy was before MicroStrategy embarked on this.
Josh
No, that's fair. That's a totally fair point.
Dave
In fact, they have more cash reserves than MicroStrategy had when they started.
Yago
I think they also have a stronger.
Dave
Revenue stream and they have a revenue stream and they have a cult following and it's interesting for that. So honestly, I think if, if people love to hit to wait on everything Saylor's doing, but the truth is is that most people are concerned that Saylor is literally doing exactly what those of us in the trading world know is the worst possible thing, which is to lever up as the price goes up. Meaning that you continually take increase and increasing risks and people are worried about the concentration risk there. Having a cadre of other companies that are equally volatile having the ability to financialize and acquire Bitcoin is a very big deal. I think that the market is missing this one. You don't. Financialization is something that's happened to our entire market. It's what took the financial sector from 8% of the S&P to 40% of the S and P over a few decades. It's a very, very big trend and we're talking many, many trillions of dollars there. So it is very clear that the financialization of bitcoin is now underway. And the feature feels somewhat unstoppable to me. And that is not a small deal. And honestly, since we all think bitcoin, bitcoiners at least all think bitcoin is somewhere between 90 and 95% undervalued as a starting point, that financialization is the way that that will actually realize. So to me, it's a big deal. But it's one of those big deals that we'll look back on in 10 years and say it was a big deal. But I agree with you, Josh. I think everyone's fixated on the macro right now. And I'm curious what your people are telling you because I find it really interesting that macroeconomic news that says it's gonna cause the economy to slow down at the same time.
Josh
Well, this is the old risk on, risk off crypto debate that's been happening forever where we all think bitcoin should be a risk off asset, but it really does behave as a risk on asset, 100%.
Dave
And it's funny, but gold does this too at times. It's kind of amusing. In the global financial crisis, people don't remember that gold dropped along with stocks and then three months later took off on a massive run. This time people are looking at saying, okay, wait a minute, the Federal Reserve is besend to the Federal Reserve. Are they going to allow long rates to move higher? Probably not. Are they going to flood the market with liquidity? Probably. So why do we care about economic slowdown if they're going to flood the market with liquidity? Historically it's been good for bitcoin market cares right now because you're right, it's part of the risk off. To me it's interesting because you would think that the market would start to distinguish sorts of these things between them, but yet some of the charts and some of the altcoins actually were better yesterday than bitcoin, which I find fascinating.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Well, speaking about just the main topic here today, Bitcoin, and then Michael Saylor. So he said this week that he sees bitcoin as it's going to be a $200 trillion asset class that's going to be, I think it was like the global settlement layer for an AI driven Internet. Did this seem like A realistic target for you guys? Or do you have any pushback on his aspirations for the future of bitcoin?
Dave
Yago, I think you're probably the most bullish of us.
Yago
I. You know, it. I would answer this in two ways. First of all, was it a realistic assumption 10 years ago to assume that bitcoin would be a multi trillion dollar asset? Practically everyone would have told you no. And yet here we are. Was it a realistic assumption that we would see with, you know, within 16 years of the system launching, that the United States as well as other countries were creating strategic reserves of bitcoin? Everyone would, you know, including bitcoiners, and yet here we are. What is the value of a global and borderless supranational right not controlled by any government, not controlled by any country? Supranational ledger and settlement mechanism? It's massive. What is the value of that in a increasingly digitized world? Massive. What is the value of that in a world where productivity spikes and we go into a phase of economic growth probably unprecedented in human history? It's massive. Is $200 billion a reasonable target? I mean, you know, maybe it's 300 trillion. But seeing Bitcoin within 10 years surpassing gold's market cap, creating a hundred trillion dollar plus economy, I think it's actually my base case.
Josh
I mean, there's, there's a difference though, between surpassing gold's $20 trillion market cap and becoming a 200 trillion market cap asset. I mean, the global market. I just pulled this up, by the way. I'll share my screen here. Maybe somebody can, can help with this. This is, this is a couple years ago from lsag, but this shows kind of a breakdown. I don't know if. Misha, can you save us here and hold us up?
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Yeah, I'm trying to see. I think I can maybe present as the leader, but I have nothing to present.
Josh
Oh, here, let me drop the link. Maybe you can reset.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Yeah, drop the link. Let's see.
Josh
This is slide three on this deck.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
All right.
Josh
It's basically just a breakdown of global markets. I mean, global markets are about $1,000 trillion dollars. I guess it's a global quadrillion dollars. And so, you know, to think that crypto is going to be 20% or, sorry, Bitcoin specifically is going to be 20% of that, I think is a, is, is potentially a bit of a stretch. However, you know, you also have inflation and things in 10 years can look differently than they look now. And maybe instead of 20%, it is some other percent but I do think it's, it's, I think the view that bitcoin will at one point hit gold or surpass gold is a conversation that, that can be had. But I think 200 trillion is a bit of a stretch.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
You guys can see that I'm sharing this, right? It works.
Yago
I don't think we can see it, but, but look, I, I can't see it, but I know the chart. Right. So what are we looking at? We're looking at about a hundred 150.
Josh
Trillion trillion in equities, about 175 in equities, 687 in rates, 118 in FX and then 9 in MM, which I guess is money markets.
Yago
Right, Right. So why is real estate 300, 300 trillion. Right. Part of the reason that real estate is 300 trillion is because it is a, a financialized asset. Are we going to continue to see that kind of growth in real estate? Could some of the financialization in real estate move to a more liquid, a more liquid asset that doesn't have the costs associated with maintaining it? I think definitely, yes. Can we see part of government bonds moving into a significant new digital asset which has limited supply and a tendency to growth? Absolutely, yes. But I think the primary driver here is that the, the global economy grows at something like 4% annualized. This quadrillion is going to close to double over the next 20 years. At 4%, assuming AI does add an additional 1, 2 or 3% to that global growth, that's a 10 year period. And so there's there. And where is that, where is that capital going to go? Right. AI companies are being commoditized, frontier models are being commoditized. What is digital and scarce, which is going to act as a bottleneck. I would say it's bitcoin. And then in addition to that, over the next 10, 15 years we're going to see millennials inheriting most of the world's wealth. And millennials tend to have between 10 and 30% of their assets in crypto. Right. So, so we're going to see several ways that are going to be driving many trillions potentially into crypto and specifically into Bitcoin. So I, you know, again, I don't know what the timeframe here is and exactly to put a number on it, nobody can do that. But it is certainly a realistic target to expect Bitcoin to substantially surpass gold and to, to achieve $100 trillion.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
I was just thinking like as a millennial, is that going to be me like, is that me and my friends?
Yago
Are you going to sell your bitcoin? No. Are you going to buy more?
Molly Jane Zuckerman
See, that's the thing. I am totally off topic here. Was a very strong believer in bitcoin as money for a very long time. So I got paid a salary in bitcoin and I would use it to do things like buy food, pay my rent, et cetera. That was years ago and I think bitcoin has moved far beyond that. And I would not want to sell it in the same way, but I won't call it Michigan. But he knows I used to just. I paid for my tennis lessons with bitcoin for a very long time. Very expensive, very expensive tennis lessons.
Yago
I hope you're good at tennis.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
You know what? No, anyway, sorry, Dave, I interrupted.
Dave
Well, I mean, look, the real question is in 1971 and before gold was the denominator and effectively represented 100% of financial assets, right? It was the denominator. It was what's backing all the currencies until Nixon closed the gold window. And, you know, its price had to move pretty quickly. You know, once it, once it, once it changed the. Actually it's really 1913 that it was 100% and it devalued it, whatever. But at some point, for a long period of time in human history, gold represented all assets, not because it was the asset, but because it was a denominator. If you talk to people on the bitcoin standard, most bitcoin maxis believe bitcoin will become the denominator. And that's the path towards these numbers that are hyperbolic. In order for that to happen, quite a few things have to happen. And to be blunt, I think that it doesn't matter. It's sort of when you're looking at an investment case, there's the right tale of what could happen. Are you still going to own it at that point? Who knows? Maybe. But what's the more likely scenario is bitcoin replacing gold and reclaiming some of that denominator status even if it isn't full? And so what Saylor is basically saying is, okay, one fifth the denominator status would get you there to where the global economy is going. And that's really the question is will bitcoin become the global store of value? And I think that if the answer to that question is will it become the global store of value at the level that gold is meaning digital, you know, a digital asset that's easily much easier to use, that's much more verifiable that's a hell of a lot cheaper to store, etc. Etc. Etc. It seems highly likely. Will it go farther is a different question.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Do you think the launch of all of these new stablecoins is going to throw a wrench in the idea of bitcoin being the backing asset?
Dave
No, it's going to accelerate it. No, it's going to accelerate it and accelerate it massively. Because what happens is the stable coins, the first order effect is stablecoins will eat bank deposits because they are so much more efficient, spendable, and frankly, the next generation of stablecoins are going to have yield that are going to be well above what Chase and Citi pay in checking accounts. So it's going to attract a ton of assets. And now all of a sudden those assets, as opposed to I have to do a bank wire and spend 30 bucks to move money or I have to do Zelle, which is Limited at 5,000 or $1,000 a pop and or potentially not on people's lists. I can now move it dramatically cheaper on the weekend without a problem. It's going to be the apex predator of fiat vehicles, and I think people understand that. But it's still a fiat vehicle. People spend fiat. People are starting to learn to save in bitcoin and those are very, very different. So, you know, it's one thing to do cash management, it's another thing to have an asset that you're buying. I think that when you introduce more and more people to the digital world, I think it becomes a lot easier to onboard than the bitcoin. And that's really the question. Now, the other piece of that is stablecoins. Most people using stable coins within a year or two won't even know they're using stablecoins. It'll just be there as part of the plumbing. So the question, Iago for you, because I know this is what you're spending most of your life on, is how do you make saving in bitcoin so ubiquitous that people don't have to know about the technology underneath them?
Yago
I don't need to do anything. No one needs to do anything. People don't save in cash. The amount of cash and cash equivalents out there that represent savings or global. The global chunk of global assets is very, very small. I don't have the chart in front of me, but. Josh, you do. What is it?
Josh
Oh, I removed the chart, so I have it open.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
What's the keyword I search for? Cash.
Josh
I think we're looking at FX. So if FX is cash, it's about 11%.
Yago
Yeah. So just, just above single digits, right around 10%. So assuming the ratios remain the same, I think the bigger chunks that are available is demonetizing to a degree. Gold demonetizing, real estate demonetizing, bank corporate debt. But the, the big thing is government debt, treasury bonds, the government debt, it has underperformed and is becoming more volatile at the same time. The sharp ratio sucks. People are moving out of it. The, the, the, the, the 6040 portfolio is dead. The new 6440 portfolio is 60% equities, 40% Bitcoin. So Josh, you know BTC easy 100x easy easy.
Dave
Yeah. The market this morning disagrees.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
We only have a little bit of time left. So I was thinking like maybe for our last topic we could talk about what's going on maybe with the altcoin ETFs that are coming. Does that sound like a good.
Josh
Yeah, I mean, I can jump in there. I mean, I think altcoin ETFs are very bullish. I think that we will see a tremendous amount of altcoin ETFs flood the market relatively quickly. And by relatively quickly, I mean starting in Q3, Q4 of this year, I think we'll see a lot of them flood in. What I'm excited about is not Single Asset Altcoin ETFs. It's Multi Asset Altcoin ETFs. The primary reason I'm excited, well, there's a few reasons I'm excited about them. The first is it allows people to get exposure to crypto more broadly beyond just Bitcoin, which I think there is demand for, and diversified exposure, and exposure beyond Bitcoin ethanol. I think the larger demand is going to be among folks to short that product. So if you are a crypto hedge fund and you are looking to pick a single asset winner over a basket of the overall market, I think that's very exciting and I think there will be a tremendous amount of demand for that product. And it's very difficult to do today with market structure and borrow rates with crypto. So I think there will be a lot of demand. And I also think you'll have AN S&P 500 type effect where you have a smaller cap asset. And when they enter the top 25 index, they then get bought. Just like when an asset enters the S&P 500, it creates buying a demand for those assets. And so I think it's, it's broadly a good thing for the market. And we're at a point right now where liquid hedge funds are really struggling to raise money. So we're not seeing a lot of demand from hedge funds rather than VC funds, rather like liquid crypto funds are really struggling to raise money. And so there's not a, there's not a huge bid for alts right now. And we're also not seeing retail bid for alts. So I think, you know, you need something that structurally is going to change to create a bit of a bid for alts. And I think this will be part of that structural change.
Dave
I think that there's a nuance in what Josh said there, which is important to understand. I am very underwhelmed by the notion of individual crypto asset ETFs. I think everyone thinks that's going to be the savior. I think that that's not. Yeah, sure, but that's the key, I think multi asset, the ability for. And this will happen once we get through a regulatory regime that is reasonable, which we are about to have. And I think Paul Atkins is, is. His testimony is today and so I don't know when his confirmation will be, but I would imagine it will be fairly soon. I do.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
The testimony is in like 30 minutes. Yeah, it's like.
Dave
Yeah, exactly. So look, the ability for someone who doesn't have a notion and doesn't want to follow every layer one, layer two, etc. To buy a diversified basket that will continually update itself of what are the protocols in crypto that are winning is extremely exciting because there are a lot of people who believe that there's a huge TAM for non bitcoin crypto, but they have no idea whether Solana, Aptos, xrp, the big question, are going to be the winners.
Josh
The big question is how many assets are in the index of the ETF that takes off? Because there will be a few of these products that win. There's not going to be a ton and it makes a huge difference if it is a 10 asset product or a 25 asset product. I think the more assets, the better for the market.
Yago
Josh, have you been.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
All right, Diego, last point and then we're gonna move on to the technical analysis. But you can gauge your say because everyone else got a little.
Yago
No, no. I just wanted to ask Josh, in terms of the clientele that you're talking to, have you seen significant appetite for purchasing this product?
Josh
There's significant appetite to short the product and so they'll be minting in order to short it. But that's also going to create new issuance of assets so that will create issuance. The fact that people want to be able to short it, the demand is there. And also talking to the asset issuers themselves, like all the big ETF issuers, with the exception of maybe one of the biggest ones that is like we're too big for this. I think all of the other ETF issuers are going to come out flying with multi asset products very, very quickly. And I don't just mean crypto native, I also mean tradfi.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
All right, that's some great food for thought to leave it on. I want to thank you guys all and for coming on with Scott out. Guys were a great audience or a great audience. You guys are great, great speakers. But now we're going to hop over to Dan from the chart guys to do a little bit of a technical analysis.
Yago
Thank you so much.
Josh
Thank you.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
By.
Dan
Thank you, Molly, of course.
Molly Jane Zuckerman
Take it away.
Dan
All right, so on bitcoin here, still watching what I would refer to as a weak daily uptrend. Bulls will take it because it's an uptrend. But when I say weak, essentially what I mean is every time we break resistance, we're going straight into consolidation and that's obviously not what you want to see. You want to see if you're a bull, you want to see a break of resistance lead to follow through. And we'll look at a couple different examples, just you know, a stronger alt versus a weaker alt in just a moment. But essentially I'm watching this Bitcoin 12 hour channel just as a bit of a visual guide. I generally don't trade off of trend lines but I like it's that's nice and contained and it's very clear. So we're testing the support right now. There's weakness in the NASDAQ first thing this morning and we know bitcoin definitely is a part or I should say is impacted by that. But with where we stand in markets and this goes for, you know, meta, nasdaq, Nvidia, all these things, altcoins, bitcoin. We're scouting weekly lower highs as the most likely result of the current bounce. And so that doesn't mean we're shorting every day or we're, you know, trying to nail a top. Every day just means in the back of our minds we know that the result of this bounce is likely to be a weekly lower high. And if these bulls are going to prove prove that things are shifting on a longer term perspective, we will have to top out wherever we do and then confirm that weekly uptrend. For us to say, okay, things are shifting back in favor of the bulls on a number of the longer term time frames. And so again, at this point, we're testing the low of yesterday right now on Bitcoin here first thing. And essentially you look at the Nasdaq, you can see the Nasdaq is following through from the bear day yesterday. Big shift yesterday. You know, you could point to the headlines, Was it Trump's 25 auto tariffs? Whatever, I don't care what the reason is. It is clearly showing weakness. And at the moment it's not ideal for the bulls because this is a back test. This was the clear resistance where we failed multiple times on the way on the initial attempt to get this move going. Reject, reject. Bulls really want to hold that on the back test and see bounce continuation. And you can see we fell through it and we're rejecting again. And so that's not a good look. We need to reclaim that. And again, the same thing, the Nasdaq is this a weekly lower high being set? If the answer is yes, that's a weekly bear flag. The bounce retracement. This is where I use Fibonacci to help determine the most likely scenario. This bounce retracement is, is weak. You know, we would need to see a 50% plus bounce retracement if we're going to be creating the space for a weekly higher low to try and form. So bulls are really hoping this is not the top. Again, same thing. Technically, we're still in a daily uptrend. It's possible bulls form a daily higher low from here and keep the bounce going. But again, after yesterday, it's just not a comfortable spot for bulls to be in. The next couple of days are pretty important for us to determine whether these weekly lower highs are being set or not. You can see the Nasdaq right now is, is back testing this 20,000 psychological level. Eth, as we know is again the same thing as bitcoin, just weak. Again, you break resistance straight into consolidation. You break resistance straight into consolidation. Anytime you change a trend with no follow through, you zoom out, look for a flag on a longer term time frame. And again, same thing as the Nasdaq eth, its weekly bounce is even weaker. And again, my perspective and how I view it is okay. Bears have been in control. The burden of proof is on the bulls to prove to us that this is not a weekly bear flag and they're just not doing a good job at this point. Again, we need a clear leg up. And just as the Example that I was talking about, SUI as an altcoin, it's topping out with an upper wick today, but it seems some relative strength the last couple of days. On the left, that's what we have. A daily resistance break with follow through. That's 15% plus over resistance. And you compare that to eth on the right, and it's just a very different picture. Resistance break with follow through, resistance break with 0 follow through. So, again, you know, if you're an altcoin bull, you want your alt to look like the one on the left. SUI much more than ETH on the right. But with where we stand, most names look like eth. If you go down the list, they're all getting the daily breaks with no follow through. At the point, at this point, again, you could say, okay, we still have the higher lows, and yes, that is true, but we need bulls to prove something. Again, I just imagine I'm not short. I'm not shorting crypto right now, but I just imagine that if I'm a bear, I put myself in that position. I'm in a short position on the weekly time frame. I have absolutely nothing to worry about right now. In the majority of altcoins, we know some of them are stronger like xrp, but you got your lead bull. XRP just confirmed a daily downtrend. This is a higher low, lower, high, lower low. So again, is XRP shaping up a weekly lower high? It certainly is developing that way at the moment. And so if, you know, if our stronger lead bull like XRP were to roll over and lose this base of support at $2 and just under $2, that would obviously be a continued red flag for altcoin bulls. So I'm going to be watching that pretty closely in the coming weeks. Binance has been another name that's had a stronger bounce, but it's got a triple top at its high. You know, just really can't get over the 640s. We top out there two days in a row, top out a third time, and now today, we're topping out a fourth time. So again, zoom out. Is this a weekly lower high shaping up? Certainly looks like a possible scenario. Outside of the crypto world, we've been keeping an eye on the. The metal miners and GDX just tightening up sideways. This is the senior miners, what I call them here. So I've got swing positions in NUGT and jnug, jnug, which are the leveraged version of these miners. But I'm walking up a stop you know, we first talked about it on this show a few weeks ago right before this breakout got going. And I've now got my stop under this daily higher low to ensure worst case scenario is some profit. You know, this is a daily bull flag attempt and if it fails, that essentially is me saying, all right, you know, I want to take my little profit, go home and patiently observe from there. Because again, for me, the most important aspect of these metals is silver testing something like 12 year highs. And if silver cannot get over these 12 year highs, then we're not going to see follow through on these miners. So need to see silver with another leg up to keep me confident, but a little bit more of a protective play keeping those gains. So we'll see how that shakes out. Again, provables, burdens on bulls here. Need the NASDAQ to set a daily higher low. Need Bitcoin to set a daily higher low. Try and keep this bounce going, but just keep in the back of your mind, the most likely scenario in tons of individual stocks, crypto, ETFs, etc. Is a weekly lower high to be the result of this bounce. Appreciate you all stopping by and we will see you next week. Thanks again.
Dave
Let's do.
Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets Episode: $200 Trillion Bitcoin & The Stablecoin Tsunami | What's Next For Crypto? Release Date: March 27, 2025 Host/Author: Scott Melker Guest Speakers: Molly Jane Zuckerman, Dave, Yago, Josh, Dan
In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker is absent, and Molly Jane Zuckerman takes the helm. Molly, along with guests Dave, Yago, Josh, and Dan, delves into the evolving landscape of Bitcoin, the financialization of crypto assets, the ambitious $200 trillion Bitcoin valuation forecast, and the burgeoning stablecoin ecosystem. The conversation blends market analysis with forward-looking insights, providing listeners with a comprehensive view of the current and future state of cryptocurrency.
The episode kicks off with Dave discussing a significant move by GameStop, highlighting their decision to invest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset and adopt a strategy similar to MicroStrategy's.
[00:56] Dave: "We saw GameStop not just decide to put into Bitcoin as a reserve asset but ape into the MicroStrategy strategy."
Dave explains that GameStop’s approach involves allocating $4.5 billion in cash reserves potentially into Bitcoin savings and raising an additional $1.3 billion through leveraging Bitcoin’s volatility. This strategy mirrors that of MicroStrategy, indicating a broader trend of corporations integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategies.
Molly inquires about the market’s lukewarm reaction to GameStop’s announcement.
[02:38] Molly Jane Zuckerman: "Do you think that it's just because of Trump and tariffs or do you think that people are over the Bitcoin strategy already before it's almost even really started?"
Yago responds by contextualizing GameStop’s strategy within a global trend, noting that numerous companies across different countries are adopting similar approaches.
[03:04] Yago: "There are a number of companies who are attempting the strategy and in fact, there's a number of companies in multiple different countries..."
Dave emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin's financialization, drawing parallels to the financial sector's growth within the S&P 500.
[05:11] Dave: "Financialization is something that's happened to our entire market. It's what took the financial sector from 8% of the S&P to 40% of the S&P over a few decades."
He posits that Bitcoin’s integration into corporate finance marks a pivotal shift, potentially making Bitcoin a cornerstone of the global financial system. Yago concurs, discussing the inevitable growth and adoption driven by global economic expansion and technological advancements.
[06:00] Yago: "What is the value of a global and borderless supranational right not controlled by any government... It's massive."
Molly brings the conversation to Michael Saylor’s ambitious projection of Bitcoin reaching a $200 trillion market cap, envisioned as the global settlement layer for an AI-driven internet.
[08:34] Molly Jane Zuckerman: "He sees Bitcoin as it's going to be a $200 trillion asset class that's going to be, I think it was like the global settlement layer for an AI driven Internet."
Yago responds with cautious optimism, acknowledging the unprecedented growth Bitcoin has achieved and outlining factors that could support such a valuation, including global economic growth and the digitization of assets.
[09:00] Yago: "Maybe it's 300 trillion. But seeing Bitcoin within 10 years surpassing gold's market cap, creating a hundred trillion dollar plus economy, I think it's actually my base case."
Josh, however, offers a more tempered perspective, questioning the feasibility of Bitcoin capturing such a vast market share of the global financial landscape.
[10:11] Josh: "To think that crypto is going to be 20%... I think 200 trillion is a bit of a stretch."
Despite differing views, the discussion underscores Bitcoin's potential to significantly redefine the global financial architecture.
The conversation transitions to the rise of stablecoins and their relationship with Bitcoin. Dave argues that the proliferation of stablecoins will accelerate Bitcoin’s financialization rather than hinder it.
[16:54] Dave: "It's going to accelerate it and accelerate it massively."
He explains that stablecoins are poised to replace traditional bank deposits by offering more efficient, spendable assets with competitive yields, thus channeling more capital into the crypto ecosystem. Yago expands on this, highlighting the minimal role of cash in global savings and the transformative potential of Bitcoin as a digital store of value.
[18:31] Yago: "People don't save in cash. The amount of cash and cash equivalents out there that represent savings or global... is very, very small."
Molly probes the impact of stablecoins on Bitcoin’s role as a backing asset, leading to a robust debate on the interplay between stablecoins and Bitcoin’s adoption as a global store of value.
[17:01] Dave: "Most people using stablecoins within a year or two won't even know they're using stablecoins. It'll just be part of the plumbing."
As the discussion progresses, Josh introduces the topic of altcoin ETFs, expressing optimism about their potential to diversify crypto investments beyond Bitcoin.
[20:15] Josh: "Altcoin ETFs are very bullish. I think that we will see a tremendous amount of altcoin ETFs flood the market relatively quickly."
He highlights the benefits of multi-asset ETFs, which offer broader exposure and mitigate the risks associated with individual altcoins. Dave supports this view, emphasizing the structural changes these ETFs could bring, especially once regulatory frameworks stabilize.
[22:35] Molly Jane Zuckerman: "The testimony is in like 30 minutes."
Yago adds that while there is significant appetite to short these products, the introduction of multi-asset ETFs could reshape demand dynamics within the crypto market.
[24:23] Molly Jane Zuckerman: "Have you seen significant appetite for purchasing this product?"
The latter part of the episode features Dan providing a technical analysis of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He observes a "weak daily uptrend" for Bitcoin, characterized by resistance breaks followed by consolidation.
[24:57] Dan: "Still watching what I would refer to as a weak daily uptrend."
Dan compares stronger altcoins like SUI with weaker ones like ETH, noting that most altcoins currently struggle to sustain their upward movements. He underscores the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming support levels to maintain bullish momentum.
[27:00] Dan: "Need the NASDAQ to set a daily higher low. Need Bitcoin to set a daily higher low."
He also touches on the performance of metal miners and the critical role of silver prices in supporting these investments.
The episode wraps up with Molly thanking the guests and transitioning to a technical analysis segment with Dan. The discussion highlights the intricate dynamics between Bitcoin’s financialization, stablecoins, altcoin ETFs, and broader market trends. The guests collectively underscore the transformative potential of Bitcoin while acknowledging the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.
Dave at [05:11]: "Financialization is something that's happened to our entire market. It's what took the financial sector from 8% of the S&P to 40% of the S&P over a few decades."
Yago at [09:00]: "Maybe it's 300 trillion. But seeing Bitcoin within 10 years surpassing gold's market cap, creating a hundred trillion dollar plus economy, I think it's actually my base case."
Josh at [20:15]: "Altcoin ETFs are very bullish. I think that we will see a tremendous amount of altcoin ETFs flood the market relatively quickly."
Dan at [24:57]: "Still watching what I would refer to as a weak daily uptrend."
Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin: GameStop’s strategic investment in Bitcoin signifies a growing trend of corporations integrating crypto assets into their financial strategies, potentially influencing market dynamics.
Financialization of Bitcoin: The increasing incorporation of Bitcoin into corporate reserves mirrors the financial sector's expansion within traditional markets, suggesting a maturing and legitimizing of Bitcoin as a financial asset.
Ambitious Valuation Forecasts: Michael Saylor’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching a $200 trillion market cap sparks debate, with opinions divided on its feasibility based on current market structures and global financial trends.
Rise of Stablecoins: The proliferation of stablecoins is poised to enhance Bitcoin’s financialization by offering efficient, yield-bearing alternatives to traditional bank deposits, potentially channeling more capital into the crypto ecosystem.
Emergence of Altcoin ETFs: Multi-asset altcoin ETFs are anticipated to diversify crypto investments, attract new capital, and potentially stabilize the market by offering more balanced exposure across various crypto assets.
Technical Market Analysis: Current technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins, with potential resistance levels and consolidation phases indicating the need for sustained bullish momentum to drive further growth.
This episode provides a nuanced exploration of the crypto market’s evolution, highlighting both the promising developments and the challenges that lie ahead. Listeners gain valuable insights into the strategic movements of major players like GameStop, the transformative impact of financialization, and the future prospects of Bitcoin and stablecoins within the global financial landscape.