The Wolf Of All Streets — $200K BTC & $15K ETH: Tom Lee Says the Rally Starts NOW!
Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Tillman and Andrew (Arch Public)
Episode Overview
Scott Melker, joined by Tillman and Andrew, explores the extremely bullish crypto price targets recently set by analyst Tom Lee: $200,000 Bitcoin and $15,000 Ethereum. The episode dissects market sentiment, Wall Street narratives, the utility-driven altcoin cycle, and the evolution of Bitcoin treasury companies. The latter part of the episode delves into innovative crypto investment strategies, notably Arch Public’s new tax-advantaged real estate Bitcoin fund, and the ongoing expansion of crypto adoption from Wall Street to DeFi and beyond.
1. Tom Lee’s Predictions & Crypto Market Narratives
Tom Lee’s Bullish Outlook
- Tom Lee’s Forecasts: Predicts BTC at $200,000 and ETH at $15,000 driven by imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased liquidity.
- “He’s talking about $200,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year. ... $15k ETH is a much bigger move. ... He says $5,500 by mid-October for ETH, that would be a pretty big move.” — Scott [01:23]
- Track Record: Lee frequently predicts bullish outcomes, often vindicated by the market’s upward trends.
Contrasting Bitcoin & Altcoin Views
- Ethereum possible outperformance is discussed. Lee is known as a large ETH holder, which guests acknowledge could color his optimism.
- Mike Novogratz’s Stance: Notably bullish on Solana over Bitcoin, citing projects like Forward Industries pouring $1.65 billion directly into the Solana ecosystem.
- “Novogratz also... says Bitcoin isn’t the big bet in crypto right now... It’s Solana.” — Scott [05:50]
The “BTFD” Era and Wall Street Recovery
- V-shaped recoveries, once considered rare, have become routine.
- “The prevailing wisdom across Wall Street is, well, V-shaped recoveries are... rare, they're not rare anymore. That’s what happens nearly every time.” — Andrew [04:53]
2. Utility Cycle: Why Altcoins Might Lead
The “Bull Run of Utility”
- Adoption Beyond BTC: Panelists agree that blockchain-based utility—real-world business use cases via smart contracts—is gaining traction, favoring Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and others for their integration capabilities.
- “This is the bull run of utility. ... Traditional businesses adopt blockchain... Bitcoin doesn’t have that. ... From a smart contract and interoperable perspective within industry. ... Those altcoins are the new systems running financial markets.” — Tillman [06:37]
Crypto “Survivors” Analogy
- Comparison to the dot-com era: There will be a classic shake-out, with a few platforms becoming “the next Amazon” while others fade, akin to how eBay survived but didn’t dominate.
3. Macro Factors, Institutional Adoption & Crypto Legislation
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Discussions
- Industry Leaders in Washington: Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, and others convene with policymakers to discuss the Bitcoin Act and potential U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves.
- Diminishing Impact: Consensus that the “strategic reserve” narrative no longer drives markets as it did months ago.
- “It doesn’t move the needle for me anymore... Bitcoin doesn’t even know what a strategic reserve means.” — Andrew [12:24]
Key Adoption Headlines (14:10–20:59)
- Metamask launches its own stablecoin (MUSD).
- American Express issues travel stamp NFTs. Coinbase and Base network hint at possible ecosystem tokens, signaling “2021 vibes.”
- State Farm & Chainlink: A partnership leverages Chainlink’s oracles for real world data—emphasized as a key adoption use-case.
- “...data, real world data finding its way onto the chain... through some sort of Oracle system. ... Chainlink gets a lot of headlines going forward.” — Tillman [18:40]
4. Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Mania, Crashes & Lessons Learned
The Rise and Fall of “Nakamoto” (21:11–32:32)
- Nakamoto Stock’s Wild Ride: Born from the Bitcoin treasury company mania, its stock spiked to $28 and crashed following delayed Bitcoin purchases and a volatile, hype-driven market.
- “You’re looking at something that's effectively trading at or below the value just of their bitcoin, not counting their other assets.” — Scott [23:16]
- Business Model Challenges: Critiques target “zombie company” structures lacking real cash flow, relying solely on asset speculation and debt.
- MicroStrategy’s Contrast: MicroStrategy held an actual business alongside its treasury; new entrants lack such sustainability.
Notable Quote
- “The business model is flawed, to be kind... These transactions were the basest type of transactions Wall Street would get involved with.” — Andrew [27:36]
Panel Consensus
- Firms without operating businesses struggle; sustainability requires actual cash-generating operations, not just “financial engineering.”
5. New Investment Models: Arch Public’s Real Estate Bitcoin Fund
The Arch Public Approach to Bitcoin Accumulation (37:35–48:37)
- A “Fix” for Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Arch Public launches a $250 million real estate Bitcoin fund focused on combining tax-advantaged real estate cash flow with Bitcoin accumulation.
- How It Works:
- Invests in income-producing commercial properties (triple-net leases).
- Uses profits (not debt) to purchase Bitcoin, averaging in automatically via sophisticated algorithms.
- Major tax advantages for accredited investors (e.g., via 1031 exchange and accelerated depreciation).
- Core Advantage: No need to sell Bitcoin to pay back debt—this is pure profit conversion to BTC.
- “What’s better than buying bitcoin? ... Using it as a savings account. ... Profits you don’t need, that you have no obligation against.” — Scott [42:44]
Notable Quotes
- “We’re starting a 250 million dollar real estate Bitcoin fund ... The whole point is to create a vehicle that’s tax-advantaged going in, and then the cash flow ... goes into buying Bitcoin.” – Tillman [38:13]
- “Tax-advantaged, Bitcoin fund. ... The tax advantage part is something that doesn’t exist in the market right now with either bitcoin funds or treasury companies.” — Andrew [44:26]
Real-World Impact & Benchmarks
- Even if Bitcoin appreciates at only a quarter its historical rate, long-term compounded returns are potentially immense for investors.
- “With a larger and larger piece of cash flow ... it is a continued liquidity pool.” — Tillman [48:37]
6. Product & Platform Updates: Arch Public & Robinhood
Innovation Announcements (51:09–54:05)
- Arch Public Algorithm now on Robinhood:
- “We have completed our integration with Robinhood which has been long awaited.” — Tillman [51:09]
- Scott will publicly demonstrate the algorithm’s real-world returns on his own funds.
- Platform scope expanded: Recent integrations with Kraken, Coinbase; research on volatility farming for BTC accumulation.
- “Over the last 90 days, we've added Kraken, ... Coinbase, ... Robin Hood, ... case studies ... Sui and Solana to buy more Bitcoin.” — Andrew [53:13]
7. Memorable Quotes & Moments
- “The hardest thing in this space is that everybody wants to be right when they’re right.” — Tillman [02:18]
- “If you look at the people who have the staying power ... Tom Lee, they don’t have that [get-rich-quick] mindset. They have the mindset of accumulating over long periods of time.” — Tillman [46:09]
- Humorous candor throughout, including playful self-deprecation and inside jokes about orange shirts for Bitcoin maximalism, and children wandering into podcast calls.
8. Timestamps for Key Segments
- [01:23] — Tom Lee’s BTC and ETH price targets
- [05:50] — Novogratz on Solana over Bitcoin
- [10:14] — Saylor, Tom Lee, and policy meetings in D.C.
- [14:10] — Mainstream adoption signals: Metamask, American Express, Coinbase, State Farm
- [21:11] — Nakamoto treasury stock rise & fall
- [37:35] — Arch Public's new real estate Bitcoin fund
- [51:09] — Arch Public’s integration with Robinhood
Conclusion
This episode delivers equal parts market insight and practical investment innovation. Tom Lee’s hyper-bullish predictions serve as the backdrop for a nuanced exploration of crypto’s adoption curve, the dangers of hype-driven treasury businesses, and the radical improvement offered by combining real-world cash-flowing businesses with long-term Bitcoin accumulation. Arch Public’s fund typifies the kind of out-of-the-box crypto platforms now being developed, hinting at a more mature, sustainable era of digital asset investing.
For more details or to connect with the guests about the Arch Public fund, visit archpublic.com.