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- [00:00]
Scott Melker
The liquidation Frenzy continues as $2.8 billion have been wiped out of crypto markets in a matter of days. Of course, this is leading many to ask whether this is just another end of a bloody September or a sign of bad things to come. Of course, all this is driven by the key stories of the week, which is what NLW and I unpack every single Friday here on the Friday five go. Let's do. Let's go. Good morning everybody, and welcome to yet another bloody Friday in crypto markets. Bitcoin trading in the 109,000 levels we were never supposed to see again. We were supposed to be at 250,000 by now. Last I checked, predictions not looking as strong as they were. Good morning, sir. How are you today? Good.
- [01:01]
NLW
What's happening?
- [01:03]
Scott Melker
A lot is happening actually. And one of the biggest stories certainly of this week is that crypto giant Tether seeks funding at $500 billion valuation, looking to raise $20 billion. This would make them effectively the largest big name private company in the world. Larger than OpenAI, larger than SpaceX. I mean this is absolutely massive. And from what I read, the chairman of Tether would become the fourth wealthiest person in the world with Tether at a $500 billion valuation. I was today years old when I realized that was not referring to Palo Arduino but to some other guy.
- [01:37]
NLW
Yeah, Tether continues to be a mystery even for those of us who spend every day talking about them. No, I mean it's a hu, it's a massive number. Is important to caveat that this is sort of what they're floating. Could end up being, you know, beaten down a little bit. But yeah, it's, I mean it's just a massive signal of how valuable stablecoin infrastructure is and what power these, these companies have.
- [02:01]
Scott Melker
And they're doing it with roughly 100 employees.
- [02:05]
NLW
Yeah, I mean the ratio is, is absolutely insane, man. It's, it's, it's wild to remember there, there, there are people whose entire personalities are hating Tether still to this day.
- [02:18]
Scott Melker
Next. Boy, me too. So I, I enjoy watching the success. But listen, if we're going to be intellectually honest about Tether, one of the greatest companies on the planet, maybe some of the things were true in the early days.
- [02:31]
NLW
Yeah, I mean they settled with the New York like the New York AG about, about this, you know.
- [02:38]
Scott Melker
Right. The whole, backed by Chinese paper and maybe not all cash in the bank and short term treasuries in the early days when there were kind of no rules and they were just bootstrapping it. Probably some of that was true. I wouldn't go as far as to say they were never fully backed. I would just say that they were potentially never fully backed by what we want them to be fully backed by to feel safe.
- [02:57]
NLW
Yeah, Crypto world was a lot different six years ago. Let's just say that.
- [03:01]
Scott Melker
How do you think that the bow hinds us 80American division plays into this news? Because that was a huge headline really last week that Beau Hines was obviously had left the White House and was going first as an advisor to Tether, now the CEO of basically the American arm to launch a new stablecoin compliant here. Do you think this was all a part of the same sort of cadence of announcements and plans?
- [03:25]
NLW
100%. It's a, I mean it's a momentum play for sure. Tether is, I mean look, they're, they're smart. They know that right now the way to play is to be close to the centers of power in Washington. They're playing that game very clearly. I mean BO is a, is a prime, prime example of that. I think that Tether was going to have a successful, had the potential to have a successful US launch kind of regardless of that. But they are, they are very much leaning into the opportunities of the moment. And so yeah, I do think it's all, all connected. One of the more interesting or sort of like limited kind of conversations that I saw around this is a bunch of people asking, well, if they're so profitable, why, why would they raise more money? Which is just the most insane question to me.
- [04:05]
Scott Melker
Like, because they're asked that question on my own show and you know, like rhetorically. But yeah, somebody said when someone offers you a lot of money, you take it. That's the. Yes.
- [04:15]
NLW
I mean, look, so, so yes. So to if would you trade 3% of your company for $20 billion is. Is one starting question. Beyond that though, this is a, like no company that gets to this state does so without enormous ambition. And Tether has been signaling for a year now about all the other types of things that they're interested in. Not really giving a bunch of plans. But it is very clear that they're, you know, it's not like they're going to win stablecoin infrastructure then be like cool, done forever, never going to build anything new. This is all about building, you know, a balance sheet that they can go do, you know, whatever they want with and follow their nose. Also, frankly, I think that one of the things that is important to remember is that a huge part of the, the profit of these companies is based on Treasuries.
- [05:03]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [05:03]
NLW
It's based on the interest rate on Treasuries that is not guaranteed to last forever. In fact, the, there are many reasons to structurally think, especially if you are in the crypto space, that the government is going to be forced to bring interest rates down long term for debt reasons and debt servicing reasons. And so of course you're going to want to build resiliency into your model as well rather than just sort of design everything around the good times of high interest rates. So I mean, look, it makes, it makes a ton of sense to me if they can actually get $20 billion for 3% of their company, that, that's huge. The other, the other piece that I thought was an interesting point that some are making is that there are likely now lots of folks in and around the tether orbit who need to do things like take loans against the value of their equity and you know, without, you know, basically who are trying to get liquidity without having to be liquid. And for those things having, you know, external valuations and things like that, you know, can be important. So all sorts of potential reasons to want to do it. But look, if you're looking for just the big banner headline, it's, you know, it will be the most or tied for the most valuable private company in the world, depending on how you look at OpenAI's recent share tender offers, which.
- [06:11]
Scott Melker
Are at around the same price with 100 employees. I'm sure that will expand. But I think your point about interest rate exposure is the most important. We've harped on that here quite a bit. But you look at a couple company like Circle that's now public and you're effectively just buying interest rate exposure until they find new and creative ways to make money and expand. Right. So there's a lot of pressure on these if we go back to ZIRP or anything close because they're going to lose 60, 70, 80% of their income, hence why Circle probably wants to launch their own chains. They can make money that way. And probably. And also we had the Circle news this week about rolling back transactions. Maybe won't even dig into that. But they need new business models and new ways to make a lot of money that are not just free money.
- [06:54]
NLW
These are super smart companies. They know that they are at a race against bigger forces than themselves and they're, you know that they're going to plow resources into going and building those new avenues.
- [07:06]
Scott Melker
Yeah, the next story of the day, obviously, maybe the Main story of the day, just because we're all hyperbolic, is price action. Bitcoin has had two of its three biggest liquidation events of 2025 in the last four days. 2.7 billion in long liquidation leverage has been wiped. I haven't actually dug in today at whether this was primarily altcoins or bitcoin on the back end, but I know Dave Weisberger dove into this pretty deep on Monday, that it was only 300 million in Bitcoin on the first liquidation event and the other 900 or billion was effectively altcoins across the market. But here you go. Largest sell pressure we've seen since June 1, 2025, when it was all over again. We all know that that's sarcasm. We have the playbook here that Dave broke down, which is that basically this is whale manipulation. A hell of a lot of money to be made by liquidating longs. And of course, Justin, 22 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today. So a lot of very market specific forces driving price right now. Without being able to point to anything wildly specific on the macro or fundamental side.
- [08:14]
NLW
Yep. I mean, look, I think that it's, it's wildly reductive, but I think you can do worse than dividing price action into one of two categories, which basically you just articulated. Is this fundamentals driven, macro driven, you know, forces that are knowable in some way, narrative driven even, or is this not those things? And if it's not those things, that doesn't mean that it's not important. But it does mean that if you are not sort of, you know, a professional trader clamming up and sitting on your hands tends to be the, the, the, the best, the best answer. And trying not to read too much into any short term signals is kind of my, you know, watchword. Like we'll, we'll see. This is, this feels like the type of action where by next week we could be having a totally different conversation. It, you know, I think that in fact, in some ways, to me, the most interesting thing to try to suss out is how it is interacting with the vibes. Whether it is contributing to a, you know, is it reinforcing a narrative that maybe we are stalling out and maybe we are at end of cycle? Is everyone still treating it as sort of like actually a September recalibration? You know, we talked about how September was going too well, either last week.
- [09:21]
Scott Melker
Or the week before, you know, September.
- [09:24]
Afani Representative
For bitcoin in history.
- [09:26]
Scott Melker
I was bringing it up as you said it September 18th. That was all 10 days ago when I retweeted that and said it's all over. Right.
- [09:32]
NLW
So, so, you know, and so the question, you know, I'm always interested in more in the kind of the meta analysis and how people are feeling about it. And look, I think that right now my read is nobody knows really how to feel about any market at the moment. It's just confusing. It's been confusing for a long time. I, I think we tricked ourselves into thinking that a rate cut would bring clarity, but you know, Powell's too shifty for, for that, you know, we can't get a rate cut with, with clear signals. It's of kind to be confusing. And so it's a Rorschach test, as every kind of market move is right now, that really is going to tell you more about how you're feeling about things than what the market is doing. Really?
- [10:08]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I mean, generally we see a very bullish fall and which should give you natural pause that everybody's expecting a very bullish fall. So good luck figuring that out. But October is as good as September is bad. So we will see if this is just kind of the last shakeouts of this summer period. Dave Weisberger once again likes to point out that during the Jewish holidays this tends to happen and then things start to rocket again once again in October. So we will see, but for now, bitcoin definitely looking on the weaker side.
- [10:41]
NLW
I will also say that I do not believe that folks who are not primarily crypto traders are viewing everything as a guaranteed bullish fall. Right. People who are just sort of in traditional markets and that overlap is more profound than it's ever been. It's going to continue to get overlapped. Right. In fact, my read on traditional markets right now is they are, they are more nervous about the extent to which value is concentrated in sort of technology leaders than they, than they have been for a while. I mean, it's just, it is, it's, it's impossible to ignore. Now there are on the flip side bulls who are saying, look, you know, maybe it's time we actually believe that this infrastructure buildout is real and it's going to happen. But by and large, I think people are more nervous now than they were, call it even six months ago. And so, you know, again, we are going to have to deal with the fact that traditional markets are now fully intersected with crypto markets and are going to shape the nature of the cycle.
- [11:39]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that that's a good point. That obviously the more institutionalized we become, the less our narratives inside our bubble matter. So the next story here is a pretty, pretty big one. It's in line with everything we've seen from regulators and from the SEC specifically. But US SEC eyes innovation exemption to fast track digital asset products. This is from chair Paul Atkins who's effectively been bull posting and lecturing at a ridiculous clip since becoming the SEC chairman. I mean we had Project Crypto obviously and now this is just a further continuation. This definitely rings of Hester Purse's safe harbor ideas that we've seen floated for many years but basically saying hey, crypto companies are going to be allowed to just release products in the United States willy nilly and we're going to eliminate the regulatory hurdles. And I think you said burdensome rules, those burdensome regulations, get those out of the way and just let people start drop in products.
- [12:38]
NLW
Yeah, I mean look, we are in now. We are firmly in the shift away from just are all our regulatory allies talking about things to what are they doing. And the SEC is, you know, once again for whatever reason, it's always the SEC good or bad, but they are, you know, the all, all of the signals are incredibly bullish, incredibly positive. This is the type of thing that really, you know, if we are very serious about creating, you know, the crypto capital of the world in the US this is the type of thing that's going to enable it right space for entrepreneurs and creators to design, experiment with new things while knowing that they're not going to be, you know, have their shoulder knocked on later. Now I will be interested to see if these things actually go through how much the legacy of the past and the, you know, the potential for future regime changes still gives people pause. I for example would not be rushing to do, you know, scary unregulated things. I don't like for myself personally to, to, to base my actions on how good my future compelling my, how compelling my future court arguments are. And so I, I think that people are going to be still a little, a little gun shy let's put it. But I'm glad to see them, them actually trying to substantiate and, and create these, the, the pathways that they've been talking about.
- [13:59]
Scott Melker
Yeah, the pendulum will swing back. I mean there's no question. I guess what this naturally begs is the question does this mean you can just go ahead and fire off a meme coin launchpad based in the United States and let any insider fire off a meme coin and hold the whole supply or are we talking about real Products. How far does this go? Because we know if you get crypto people together in a room with no rules, you're going to get some pretty ugly stuff.
- [14:26]
NLW
Yeah, we'll find, I, I guarantee we'll find out.
- [14:29]
Scott Melker
Oh, we're going to find out. There's definitely people who already watched that SPEEC like you said and didn't consult a lawyer and already have plans to launch things that are going to blow our minds. The next topic here, Democratic signal support for bipartisan solution to market structure bill. Republican backed bill to create a market structure for digital assets is expected to head for a vote in the Senate Banking Committee soon. Of course you can't get good bipartisan news without a little on the flip side probe into foreign crypto deals critical amid market structure talks Democratic UX senators. So yes, some Democrats on one side, some Democrats still skeptical obviously still some vestiges of the Elizabeth Warren anti crypto army.
- [15:09]
NLW
Well the actual news was that the Democrats, this group of 12 Democrats want to be more involved. They want to basically co draft the legislation rather than just you know, be, be party to it. I think that's a positive thing. You know look, they're still squawking like we could potentially have market structure this year. If you are tracking this at home, all you should really care about, at least in the short term is how strong the intention remains. I think that right now the broad sense is that we're in pretty good territory as relates to market structure bills. My guess is that a lot of what we'll be looking at from a crypto lobbying perspective is going to be some very specific things I. E. Backdoor defi bans, things like that. The type of stuff that we've seen over and over again sneak into legislation last minute and you know, all. Look, I, I don't think that it was, it was predestined that the, that this was actually going to move forward this fall. There's plenty of other considerations so you know, roughly or sort of like loosely neutral to bullish right now as relates to at least sort of the intent in Washington to get things done.
- [16:21]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I agree. Next story we have here Tom Lee but really about digital asset treasury companies. Tom Lee predicts Ethereum's price could reach 12,000 by end of 2025. He calls Ethereum a neutral chain that will be favored by Wall street and the White House. Of course this is talking his own book because Bitbind holds 2.15 million ETH making it the largest Ethereum treasury in the world. But 12 to $15,000 by the end of 2025 would be a pretty sizable move in the coming months. And I think this begs the question, how much bull talk can you do to keep pushing things if the market doesn't end up supporting it? And what does that mean for digital asset treasury companies moving forward? Because it feels like dat 1.0 has seen a lot of the shine come off.
- [17:08]
NLW
Yeah, I mean, I think that it's fair to say that there's a little bit of narrative exhaustion right now. And you know, Tom Lee, God bless him, is out there trying to figure out exactly how many more pennies that can be picked up, you know, before, before that narrative gets completely exhausted. And it's a good bull, it's a good bellwether for that point. Look, I think that the other interesting piece of this is that there is no asset in crypto that has had, that has had a more prominent place with more different narratives about what it's supposed to be, right? World Computer Defi chain. I mean, you name it, right?
- [17:43]
Scott Melker
Internet of value.
- [17:45]
NLW
Yes, Internet of Value, Ultrasound money, we had that.
- [17:48]
Scott Melker
Can't forget ultrasound money. That's the best because obviously that's what Ethereum was built to be.
- [17:52]
NLW
And, and the, and the interesting thing is that, you know, for me, it seemed like the place that it had with Wall street was always going to be Bitcoins, the store of value, you know, digital gold thing. Ethereum's everything else in crypto, right. You can kind of use it as a, as a, as a bundle for everything else. Tom Lee is definitely trying to own and push an Ethereum narrative that is about its sort of defi. Aspects.
- [18:18]
Scott Melker
Right.
- [18:18]
NLW
It's, it's use as a financial technology. We even have Vitalik coming, coming in with a, a blog from, from left field, basically getting down with the financialization kind of use cases and sort of saying that, yeah, maybe I don't think those are important still, but we need ways to fund the important stuff. And so if all of these financial use cases allow us to go do things that don't have to have business models, because maybe that's, that's valuable, right? So it feels to me like on the one hand, narrative exhaustion with the treasury companies, but perhaps a Ethereum community alignment. I use that word very, very loosely, but you know, some commonality of purpose when it comes to telling Wall Street a story that yes, this is a chain that is open for financial business and is excited to work with them.
- [19:03]
Scott Melker
Yeah, the Vitalik blog is interesting because obviously he's driven the Narrative for Ethereum and those multiple narratives to some degree for so many years. And he kind of got in line behind Tom Lee and said, this thing's working. Let's not rock the boat. Let's do what Tom Lee is doing. Right. This is the narrative that's going to work for us and continue to push us forward. Smart. Yeah.
- [19:23]
NLW
I mean, look, the part of the Saylor playbook is recognizing that when it comes to certain aspects of the market, Saylor is a more effective communicator than. Than anyone else we've had.
- [19:33]
Scott Melker
And simple is better.
- [19:34]
NLW
Yep, 100%.
- [19:36]
Scott Melker
So this is the stablecoin chain. That was his first narrative for why Ethereum was going to go up. Anyone who knows, no, stable coins are everywhere. They're a commod commodity. There's going to be a million of them on every chain. But Circle went public, everyone wanted access to stable coins. Tom Lee was smart enough to push the narrative that ETH would g. You know, accrue all the value from stablecoin adoption.
- [19:55]
NLW
Yeah. I mean, also a recognition that it's that, that it's got to compete for narrative place with Solana, with xrp, with everything else that's about to be fast tracked because of innovation. Exemptions for ETFs. You know.
- [20:08]
Scott Melker
Yeah, exactly. Okay, well, we have a fine that. That was the five, but we have breaking news that I honestly, I think could be the entire Friday five. All five. Like Van Vanguard to allow access to crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform. Not just broken by me. Here's an article on it on Trading View. Vanguard literally repeatedly said the word never. No chance. Not going to happen. The world could literally explode in a ball of fire and you still won't be able to buy crypto ETFs. Here we are. Yep.
- [20:45]
NLW
Yeah, I mean, look, it's. This is a. You know, I think if you, if you want to. If you want a Twitter meme, it. This is the and then you win phase.
- [20:52]
Scott Melker
Right. It.
- [20:55]
NLW
They were the loudest, most vociferous, you know, antagonist were never going to do it. And the market appears to have driven them to, To. To. To change their, Their stake, as markets tend to do. I was. When I f. When you first shared this, I went and looked. And the sourcing looked dubious to me. But then it. It was Eleanor Turret who is sourcing it. You know, who I think at this point is sort of beyond, beyond reproach. So look, it's. It appears that this might be a thing and you know, look, the. Yes it is valuable in the sense of all of these new people that potentially come online via Vanguard. I think that the signaling power initially is. Is the big one. This is one of the last big holdouts in tradfi to the ascension of the crypto infiltration of the mainstream economy. And so like you said, and then you win phase crazy.
- [21:47]
Scott Melker
This one I was not sold would ever come around. I thought they might just remain on the sidelines literally forever. Maybe there's the greatest top signal of all time and I'm just not seeing it.
- [22:00]
NLW
Money companies like money at the end of the day and yeah, when, when, when people with money tell the money company that they want to spend their money on a thing that they don't have, the money company can only say no for so long.
- [22:12]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I'm just like, I'm dancing on the line of being really happy that they came around and wanting to give some credit and just wanting to indefinitely dunk on them for their bad decisions. And I don't really.
- [22:23]
NLW
Oh, no, full dunk.
- [22:25]
Scott Melker
Okay.
- [22:25]
NLW
Full dunk. Yeah, because there's a. Because I guarantee you there are a whole set of people inside that company who were telling their leaders and leadership structures that they were insane to make those decisions and even more insane to make such big, bold proclamations that created, you know, narrative headwinds for them later on. And PR headwinds. And those people are also dunking right now and hopefully getting promoted.
- [22:48]
Scott Melker
Yeah. All right, well, that is all we've got today on the Friday 5. Feel like we nailed it. Pretty good. Pretty good. You guys can check out the breakdown and nlw, obviously on all of his channels, he goes way deeper into most of these topics and others throughout the week. And AI as well. I've said it before, I'll say it again. It's the only podcast I listen to every day. I listen to like one all in podcast every two months just to trigger me slightly. And I listen to and I listen to the breakdown. That's it. That's all I got.
- [23:21]
NLW
Awesome.
- [23:22]
Scott Melker
All right, guys, it's been a pleasure. We will definitely see you next Friday for the Friday 5. And I'll be back on Monday for macro Monday. See you guys soon. Bye. Later off.
- [23:31]
Afani Representative
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- [24:28]
Scott Melker
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