← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
A
$500 billion. The proposed valuation of tether. If they successfully raise $20 billion, last I checked, that would make them probably the largest private company worth discussing, larger than OpenAI and even SpaceX. Huge news today coming from Tether, but what I want to really dig into today is once again, crypto treasury companies, which ones are good, which ones are bad, if they're good or bad for the market and how they will impact it moving forward. Have two amazing guests, both Alan and Brian from upexi to break it all down. These are the guys that I go to when I have questions about treasury companies. Figured we could just bring them on and get it all out in the public. Let's go, let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. Going to go ahead and bring on Alan and Brian right now. Good morning, gentlemen.
- [01:07]
B
Hey, morning, Scott. Morning, Brian. Thanks for having us.
- [01:10]
C
Morning. Yes, thank you.
- [01:12]
A
And my viewers will know, as I joked before, that Alan is sitting in Bill Barheit's living room with, with the piano back there that everybody in crypto obviously knows how to play. It's a very popular background, very popular on our show. So thanks for bringing it back. Thanks.
- [01:26]
B
God, I didn't, I didn't know, but I guess I know now. I actually do have the same, I actually do have the same piano and I have a Yamaha automatic player on it. So I technically at least have one piece from this background.
- [01:37]
A
I have a Yamaha baby grand piano as well. See, listen, as, as I mentioned here before, you guys are my go to informational source for treasury companies. As I joked right before the show, I say when I want to sound smart or when I need to understand what's going on. I go to Alan and I say, explain what just happened with this treasury company launched to me like I'm five. Right. Because I think that it's really important to note that most of this is way too complicated for the average retail investor to understand. And every time I get into a deep conversation about treasury companies, someone says, well, it's all disclosed. Everybody can go read the SEC disclosures and make the decisions for themselves. But I think it's fair to say that generally on this treasury trend, that's not how people have been approaching what they decide to buy and sell. Right?
- [02:26]
B
Yeah. I mean, from what I've seen, and actually it's funny, I had a really in depth conversation with some attorney friends of mine yesterday is like our deal was one of the first major deal, like the first one to do 100 million and then we, we did Have Defi Dev Corp. Which their deal was pretty simple too. And, and we were just discussing this yesterday, not too in depth, but each deal afterwards has gotten more and more, more complicated. You know, it, it's kind of, kind of what Wall street does, you know, and, and they are right though. The investors do have to really interesting that people like even on our chats and our streams, they just don't understand. I think the average retail investor, you know, really spends more time like, you know, researching a hotel room when they're going on vacation than they realize. Because if you dig into some of these things, and I was an investor in, in, in deals afterwards, I've stopped investing because they're so diluted with, with just multiple structures, I find value destructing to the individual investor. So it doesn't take that long to read them. And you can certainly understand it if you spend any time on it at all.
- [03:27]
A
But Brian, I think it's a lot of words people don't understand sometimes when they do dig in. And to your point, I think they do spend more time on a hotel. I mean the way that people invest now is friend says ticker, go on Robinhood, buy ticker, hope for the best. I mean that's research at this point.
- [03:42]
C
It is. And the thing I noticed, and I was an equity analyst for a lot of top hedge funds for roughly a decade, and a lot of this stuff is complicated for me is a lot of the folks looking at these treasury companies are crypto folks and a lot of the big investors are crypto folks. And so all this stuff just literally takes decades to really learn, internalize how to think about it. And I think that's what's led to a lot of the confusion and misunderstanding out in the marketplace.
- [04:10]
A
I agree. And to be fair, it's not just retail, it's institutions as well. We all remember the FTX debacle. It was like Sequoia invested first and then everybody else's due deal diligence. Was Sequoia invested.
- [04:22]
B
Yeah, right.
- [04:23]
A
So even the largest institutions throw bad money after good money just because somebody else said so.
- [04:29]
B
And it is complicated. It is, it is complicated. You know, so I think even when, you know, I've been doing it for 30 years, I look at it and I think it's easy to me. But then you realize like, you know, my wife or something, my kids will ask or my daughter, like I have trouble explaining it, you know, why the dilution matters and why these things matter. So it is, you know, it is, it is. It's funny Because Scott and I met, we were talking this morning on. It'd be pretty, pretty interesting if someone built a white paper that just said deal after deal and how more, how much more dilution and all of the things made it into a really simple chart that they could post on, on Yahoo. I think maybe we'll look at that internally and see if we can create something interesting.
- [05:06]
C
I'm not sure if this will make it easier or harder to understand, but the analogy that I think about when thinking about treasury companies is just simply that of a bank. And maybe it's easy for me because I managed a long, short banks book for a really long time. But essentially banks make spread income. They basically borrow from depositors, they lend to borrowers, and they make the spread between the yield on loan and the cost of deposits. The market will then essentially present value. All that future spread income added to book value. Then the bank will trade above one times book. And then it doesn't happen too often, but if the bank wants to partake in M and A, it can issue equity. And when you issue equity above one times, it's by definition accretive. And I think of all these treasury strategies as exactly the same construct. So instead of raising funds from depositors, we raise funds from the capital markets. Instead of investing into loans, we invest into a digital asset. We earn the spread between the return on Solana and, and our cost of capital. And then whenever the market thinks that the return on soul will outpace our cost of capital, that spread will be positive. The market will then present value all that future spread, add it to our nav, then that will work out to be a valuation multiple that is above one, which we can then monetize similar to a bank. And by the way, banks all trade above book value as well. So that is the analogy in case it's helpful that, that I use in my head.
- [06:36]
A
Yeah, I think people just even get lost in the weeds of the words. Right. Like what's a warrant, what's nav. You know, I think there's basic concepts that we have to do a better job of educating retail on. Bottom line is that Alan, as you said, if somebody could create a simple white paper or spreadsheet to give an idea of how these can be differentiated, it would be really useful. But to your point, it just seems that people are having to get more creative, which means more dilutive as they create new companies. So it's almost like the newer ones are worse for investors structurally.
- [07:12]
B
Yeah, I guess like Brian said, you trade above book and so if you make, if you're making that spread, if 100% or 95% of that goes to your investors because your cap structure is clean, it's very easy to determine when there's all of these warrants and sponsor warrants and bank warrants and options and you know, consulting contracts. Those just, those take away from that spread. So it really does matter and it's, it's very significant. And I think that, yeah, you know, maybe Brian and I'll put together something that. It just interested me yesterday and I said talking to the couple, a couple lawyers at the same time and they're all commenting like how our deal was like the very beginning and how each deal has changed since then. So yeah, it'd be pretty interesting if we do do it, Scott, I'll send it to you because no one, no one could, no one could make it simpler than you.
- [07:57]
A
Well, I mean, I'm a simpleton. I think though, you guys specifically when you talk about apexing, the way that you structured your deal, it's extremely low leverage. I mean, what's the percentage of NAV that's leveraged?
- [08:14]
B
We shoot for 20%. It's probably right around there. Like it may go up and down a percentage or two, but we do that mostly for just the volatility around Seoul.
- [08:22]
C
Right.
- [08:23]
B
So as an early mover, we're a little, we have a little advantage over everyone is our cost basis based on sold today is much lower. I think it's closer to 160 where it seemed like these new navs, you know, are somewhere. I think, I think Ford said they're at 232, so you know, they're underwater $100 million today. Obviously crypto that can be over, that can be, that can be in the money in 20 minutes. So it's, it's just a moment in time. But we, we do have a little advantage there. So that, but we, we, we just, you know, that, that early mover does give us some, some cushion for, for, you know, any crypto winner.
- [08:54]
C
Yeah, we have $40 million line outstanding. We have over 400 million worth of soul. So we have like single digit percentage in terms of credit risk leverage. And then MicroStrategy has always said that their limit relative to nav is 20%. We're dealing with an asset that's much more volatile. And so we want to be really prudent with the amount of leverage we take on. And we think that will position us well to weather any market environment.
- [09:19]
A
Yeah. So before we move on to the news Obviously, I think it's worth discussing and I know I talked to Kyle Somani who launched the new darling of the treasury company world recently. Obviously a very different deal than yours. But why Solana? I think it's really important actually to discuss why you chose this as the benchmark asset, how you can actually beat the value of Solana in this structure. I've been pretty critical of Bitcoin treasury companies personally, and I stand by my opinion that beating Bitcoin, using Bitcoin is effectively impossible without taking higher leverage. But with Solana or Ethereum or others, you obviously have built in ways to earn yield and to beat the benchmark asset. So I guess why Solana and how do you currently beat it and intend to beat it?
- [10:10]
B
I'll let Brian, but I will say on the Bitcoin, we still consider that the number one monetary asset.
- [10:16]
D
I do.
- [10:16]
B
I do think though, like microstrategies has proven how leverage you can actually beat Bitcoin with. Not, you know, with, with the way they've done it. However, you know, you need that premium and you need someone like Michael Saylor who's been creative in those financings. I think one of the things that's gotten lost in the deals that have kind of gotten done is, you know, there is a, there is a art to Wall street and to finance and crypto is completely different. So there's a learning curve for a lot of these new companies. You know, I've been on Wall street for almost 30 years, but I'm gonna let Brian go on. Why Solana? Because honestly, he explains it better than I do.
- [10:53]
C
Yeah, thanks, Alan. So as far as beating the underlying, I think it has to do with the multiple value accrual mechanisms that you don't get with owning the tokens natively or via other instruments like an etf. Alan, hit it on the head. The main one is issuing equity above book, which is by definition accretive. I can run you through some simple math that can really help viewers internalize this. But essentially when microstrategy issues equity at two times nab, they're literally selling a dollar for two or they're buying Bitcoin half off. And this is how they've created 26 billion worth of free Bitcoin for shareholders over the last six quarters and how they've roughly tripled the return of Bitcoin since it launched its treasury strategy in 202020 without being very levered at all. We can actually improve on the microstrategy model by staking our treasury and turning it into this productive asset versus a bitcoin treasury company that just sits on its treasury and does nothing with it. And then on top of that, we can actually buy Luxel at this discount. We're getting a roughly 15 discount in the current marketplace. And because we have this buy and huddle strategy and as that discount will move to par over time, these are essentially built in gains for shareholders. So for all those reasons, we feel fairly strongly that as long as we are underpinned by an end game winning asset that will tend to move up over time, our stock has a great chance to actually outperform that underlying asset. And then as far as why Solana, Alan got it exactly right. So we view Bitcoin as the best monetary asset. Solana is the best high performance performance blockchain. Could have done this on Bitcoin, but it's a 2.5 trillion dollar asset, literally the fifth largest in the world, probably not going to 5x anytime soon. Whereas something like Solana, it's 5% the market cap of Bitcoin, it literally could 5x over the next year. Also, when we launched There were probably 50 bitcoin treasury companies. We didn't want to be the 51st. We'd rather be, you know, one of the leading Solana treasury companies. And so this moved us over to the smart contract side of the spectrum. And then we really chose Solana for three reasons over other smart contract blockchains. Number one, it's the first second generation smart contract blockchain. So you benefit from best in class technology like parallel transaction execution. But also because it launched in 2020, it enjoys these really great network effects. In addition, it has this large and growing and vibrant ecosystem system of users, developers and dapps. You can really build anything on Solana. And then lastly, it's actually putting up the best stats of any blockchain. And so these are things like daily active users, DAP revenue and Dex volumes. And so Ethereum's obviously the biggest, has the most institutional visibility. But Solana has been making huge inroads and we're trying to skate to where the puck is going, do you think.
- [13:41]
A
As we move forward? Obviously I think we just saw the first little bubble in the treasury landscape. Right. A lot of these launched, they weren't even able to buy the bitcoin yet. The stocks went up to 10, 15, 20 x multiples. By the time they could buy, the stocks were all the way down. And then the pipes obviously register and right back to where the pipe investors were. Okay, so I think there's a cautionary tale there. Do you think that moving forward, since we know that there's going to be thousands of these things, that we're going to just start to trade at much more reasonable valuations that people could expect? Hey, if I buy this and I get 1.3, 1.4, you know, times Nav, that's going to be great. A really good investment. I'm beating it. You know, you can differentiate between the companies or do you still still think we're going to see this insane kind of hype train where you get these 20, 25x to nav launches? By the way, we talked about NACA as like a 20 something X to nav and they didn't even own Bitcoin yet, so how can we even know what it was to Nav? Right?
- [14:36]
B
Yeah, I think that's just the euphoria around new things. And what I think is the more mature a company gets, the less those registrations have effects. You know, it's historically on any company you raise money, the stock goes down closer to that, you know, on a regular basis. The, the secret here is to pick the one to pick the companies. You know, not investment advice because I don't really give it. But like the way we look at it is we pass on as much of our economics to the, to the shareholders as possible. It's really like a stairstone. You know, you, you bring your nav up to $4, you raise money, it brings your nav up to $5, raise money, it brings up to $6, your brace might bring up $7, so forth and so on. You're this. Building a Treasury is the same as building a business. It doesn't happen overnight, it takes a little time. But as long as it's done correctly, the value metrics are very, are very attractive for investors. You know, I would say that be careful on these deals, you know, that are launching because there is no real price discovery. Like same happened with us. I mean we woke up the morning the Stock was at 22 from $2. We're like, what is going on? Right? I, we really couldn't understand it internally and I think I said to Brian, this is the worst thing that can happen because it just, all these people think this is real and it's nothing we can do, right? We, we can't control a market, we can't even say anything. But I think that, you know, this is, it's just like you have to think about it as there are still going to be highs and lows in crypto. You can wake up tomorrow morning. And, you know, solana can be 260. So everything's going to run. It's just the way it's going to be. You just have to have a little longer time frame in your mind other than a week, you know, or a month, and realize that if they're executing that, you can really build value. I saw you, I saw your cringe, Scott, because I know everybody wants.
- [16:09]
A
Because that is literally how every single person approaches it. Like, this hasn't gone up today. What are we doing here?
- [16:16]
B
I like to think that's not true, but I see it on my ex account that it actually is true, but so true.
- [16:20]
A
It's so sad.
- [16:22]
B
So I'm hoping that we can see the real value over time here. We do put full metrics on our website. We've even, even designed every way possible, fully diluted. And I still get things like, hey, you're trading under nav. And I'm like, please see the website. Like, it's. It's not. It's just.
- [16:38]
A
Well, the problem is you also have like treasury dashboards that are wrongfully calculating NAV. They said NACA was at like 0.7 when it was at the bottom. And if you actually included the 200 million, whatever, they're wrong.
- [16:52]
B
I run a dad and I don't know what half of them are actually. I can't tell you the NAV on half of these companies. So.
- [16:57]
A
Yeah, makes sense. Brian, I don't know if you're about to jump in, but if. Yeah, go ahead.
- [17:04]
C
Yeah. My only thought is, like, I think we've been inundated with that supply and I think we have to work through some of this oversaturation. But at that point, I believe very strongly that these things should trade above one given the multiple, like, compounding value accrual mechanisms. And as Alan mentioned, you know, there is a pretty high correlation that we've seen historically with MSTR and the price of Bitcoin. So should we get into a full bull market, which I believe quite strongly we will once the US pass its Digital Asset Market Structure legislation, I do think you'd see a lot of these M navs move up even higher. And then my last thought is, like, we're at 1.5 today. Like, that is still pretty nicely accretive if we can issue equity via an equity line out into the marketplace at that price. And we can actually do, you know, issue converts where that conversion price is typically above where the current market price is right there. So we can actually issue it at even higher Multiple than we're currently.
- [18:03]
A
And you can buy Solana at a discount. Right. I mean you actually broke it down on spaces the other day. Like when MicroStrategy is trading at 2x NAV, they're basically buying Bitcoin at half off.
- [18:12]
C
Yeah, exactly right.
- [18:15]
A
And you guys can buy OTC at a 15% discount, I believe you said. So you're, you know, theoretically you're buying Solana at an extreme discount.
- [18:25]
B
Yeah. And, and one of the advantages for even us over microstrategies, even though obviously they have the, you know, the ultimate size advantage, is that if we issue 100 million or 200 million convert above the market, that's very accretive to us. Like if, if, if MicroStrategy issues 200 million, it's not even, I don't know how many decimal places you have to go.
- [18:42]
A
That's Monday. That's every Monday.
- [18:44]
B
It's Monday morning.
- [18:45]
A
Right.
- [18:46]
B
It's between 9 and 10am so the, the, the implied value for these smaller dads like that are growing rapidly. Will, will, will, it will find a base. Right. Like Brian said, this is all supply. We saw so many come to the market. I think people are digging through what the real metrics are about all of those and we'll see who, who, you know, we'll see who the winners are and which ones are executing. Because as much as we hate, you know, we hate the market does find, you know, value and it will find which one's executing, you know, at the highest level and what, what, what the best return for investors are. It will have its bumps, but, but I think it will. I, I have faith.
- [19:24]
A
Brian, let me ask the hardest question. What if it's, what if we go into it, what if we go into a bear market?
- [19:30]
C
Oh. So I have so many thoughts. I would argue that in a bear market a dad can and probably should trade at a discount to its nav, but that the model is simply on pause. And I think like MicroStrategy demonstrated this perfectly. If you look at its increase in Bitcoin per share, 2024, it was 74%. 2021, it was something like 47%. So in the bull markets it can really monetize that premium multiple. And then when it traded basically at nav or slightly below, it was just on pause and it still was able to increase bitcoin per share, but more like mid single digits. So I'd argue the model's more on pause. MicroStrategy's obviously come out and said we will never sell a bitcoin But I actually think a Treasury company could go out and just play this game in exactly the reverse way. So if you sell your digital assets at the market price, selling at one time and use it to buy back your share, that is by definition accretive for shareholders, just in the opposite direction. I think a company would have to weigh be like evangelizing a cryptocurrency and saying like we will never sell our digital asset and the cons of moving off that versus like actually accreting shareholder value by engaging in buybacks. But something that you can do and in fact you probably don't even have to do it. If you just hinted to the market that you were going to buy your stock back all the way up to nav, the market should want to get in before you do that and they might close that gap for you and for us.
- [20:58]
A
Like with, with.
- [20:59]
B
That's another benefit. You know, we have the staking revenue I think we announced it's like $105,000 a day. So you have that money to reinvest should it trade below there, right. And then, and the other side of keeping a small amount of leverage, like, like Brian said, if we're only 10% levered and somehow Solana came down to 160, we could technically lever up 20% so buy another 40, $50 million, you know, or actually it would be less but, but then you could add it to your, to your balance sheet. So really it's, this is really a financial, you know, exercise at being prudent and planning for these things. And we, you know, Brian and I and internally Andy our cfo, we have a very detailed plan on what we would do in each of these places. But like what Brian said, you can create value in all markets.
- [21:41]
A
It turns out that buying GBTC at a 50% discount was a really good idea in the last bear market.
- [21:47]
B
It really is. And that's why I said it's stair stepping. Right. You've got to just, you got to be patient here.
- [21:53]
A
ETF approvals obviously helped in that case, but still, I mean, you know, it's something that's a tremendous discount to the net asset value. If you don't think they're going to zero is incredible buy. So maybe the bear market becomes a major opportunity. I do want to talk about some of these bigger news stories as well as we kind of go on here. This is just, I would need your opinion on this. Crypto giant tether seeks funding at 500 billion valuation raising $20 billion. First of all, they're so flush with cash, you got to wonder what they're going to do with $20 billion. But this would make them more valuable than SpaceX, OpenAI, all of the largest headline private companies on the planet. I mean, this would put them at one of the larger companies on the planet, including public companies. This is wild. And I think they have like a hundred employees.
- [22:38]
B
So. So yeah, so let's go. I'm going to go back to like, you know, before probably half of our people on here were wherever investing, you know. So when I was building XPO logistics back in 2000, we, we brought in, you know, a pretty key, a couple of key investors, Peter lynch and some other investors. And the truth is what they said when, when, when valuations are high and the money's available, take it. I'm like, but we don't need it. He said, shut. So I think if they're, if they're able to get a $500 billion valuation with 100 employees, why are they taking $20 billion?
- [23:08]
A
Well, because they can't to get the $500 billion valuation.
- [23:12]
B
Yeah, yeah, I mean I just saw, because I'm actually, I was an early investor in Open Air and I just saw their last round, I think, was 400. 400, I think 423.
- [23:22]
A
Money. Yeah, somewhere in the 300, 400ish range, I think as well, depending on.
- [23:27]
B
Yeah, so they're all, you know, there's nothing, every chart's the same in the public markets. So usually in the private markets it's even worse, like the charts higher. So, you know, it's, it's, it's just part, it's just part of, you know, bull markets.
- [23:42]
A
Okay, so there's a private company though. Brian, I know you're about to jump in, but do you think that this hints at the idea that they might take advantage of that to go public eventually?
- [23:54]
B
Brian. I mean, you know, when you're getting these kind of valuations, the, the scrutiny about being public on a daily basis really like literally daily.
- [24:02]
A
Right.
- [24:02]
B
You get someone every, no matter what you say. Today, 49 of the people are, you know, hate what you say and 51. So if you're getting this kind of valuation, I would, you know, personally wait for, you know, but yeah, who knows what they're gonna do.
- [24:14]
C
Yeah, I'm not sure why they would need to, but I actually think this is going to be fascinating to see how this develops. So obviously, like Tether is this insanely profitable company. I think they made 13 billion last year, like with only 100 people, as you mentioned, there's not many ways for investors to access stablecoins and there are huge network effects because everyone uses Tether because everyone else does. And so I can actually see why they would command a really high valuation. That said, I think it's going to be really interesting to see how this stablecoin landscape develops over the coming years and to see if they actually face competition from yield bearing stablecoins. This genius act kind of protects this a bit because it only covers payment stablecoins. But you know, it'll be interesting to see if at some point some of these leading stablecoin companies will be forced to share some of the economics with either their distribution partners, like exchanges or their end users, if others are actually doing that as well.
- [25:14]
A
Yeah, I mean, I'm just taking a look here at banking stocks. I mean, not that Tether would be really comparable to a bank, but if we're talking about payments and yield bearing and all those things, it starts to really, I think infringe on that territory. Only J.P. morgan would be bigger at this valuation. It's twice as large as Goldman Sachs. I mean there's a real serious big.
- [25:34]
B
Boy number and, and when, and JP Morgan I think makes more than 13 billion a quarter. So that, you know, I think, but, but, and you know, like Brian said, when you're, when you're on the cutting edge and you're going to get that valuation. So even at, even at 13 billion, if that's what their money is, you know, that's still only 40 times earnings, you know, 42 times, you know, for 400 billion, I think. So it's not, it's not, it's not crazy. It's not crazy, you know, especially with the growth rate.
- [26:00]
C
So yeah, Tether is a bank with free funding so they don't have to pay for deposits or borrowings.
- [26:07]
B
Even better.
- [26:08]
A
Yeah, I mean it's the most incredible business that there is. I know we're kind of getting close time here, but a couple other stories that were really big that hit yesterday, although this is kind of the continuation of a story, but Morgan Stanley close to offering crypto trading through E Trade calls a tip of the iceberg. They've said first quarter of 2026, they anticipate, or first half to be specific, that they anticipate offering direct spot crypto trading to their customers. I mean, I think this is just another step in the inevitable evolution and you know, climbing the ladder of opportunity. But still, this is Morgan Stanley, right? I think this leaves like pretty much Vanguard just Hanging out by themselves in the anti crypto army. Right. But this stuff's becoming available to everyone. Does this meaningfully impact your. I should ask you this question. When these assets start to become too available to everyone and Solana is probably going to get an ETF that will include staking soon, how does that, how do you view that through the lens of your potential buyers who might just go buy salon on Morgan Stanley?
- [27:11]
B
Again, we, we actually would view it a different way, you know, that, that the whole scale on, on, on Solana at 5% the size of Bitcoin. Imagine when these funds make it more available, it becomes more forward facing. Never mind when investment advisors like Brian said, what could drive a bull market, you know, the genius act. And, and when now Morgan Stanley allows you to trade it on, on your platform, that's great. But what happens when their advisors start adding 5% of crypto to every, you know, investment account, you know, in, in, in in their purview like that, that's enough money to drive all of crypto up. One having that available, even as a Morgan Stanley like client, we, we can't hold it. So this is great. It's great news. It's great news for us. It's great news for the whole industry.
- [27:59]
C
Yeah, I think this is just part of a broader movement of enabling access to digital assets for people in all different forms. And so you have the executive order which will enable defined contribution plans, which is a $13 trillion market, you know, that will probably move forward. You're seeing more avenues like the ETFs, and then you're seeing treasury companies enable access. And so all this is opening up investment into cryptocurrencies, which like Alan mentioned, should really have the effect of pushing price up over time.
- [28:30]
A
So basically anything that's good for Solana is good.
- [28:33]
B
It's good, it's all good. Anything is good for crypto.
- [28:35]
A
It's good.
- [28:36]
B
It's good. You know, this is, this is really, like you said, this could be the beginning of a bull market like we haven't seen in a long time.
- [28:43]
A
I mean we saw obviously the executive order that Trump had signed saying to allow spot crypto trading or investment in 401ks. I mean we have this now being pushed by US lawmakers to get this done. I mean, once again, just another story along the same lines of more institutional adoption, more regulatory and legislative clarity. But like unlocking a casual $10 trillion in investment accounts to crypto seems like also a big deal. And now it's really being pushed and.
- [29:16]
B
It goes up every pay period. Right. Because so everybody, it just becomes the underlying liquidity in the market that's really needed that along with, along with, you know, the regulatory clarity. It's, it's just a good thing allow America to catch up with the rest of the world.
- [29:31]
A
Awesome guys. Well, we gotta move on to the next portion of the show. I really appreciate both of you joining. You can find both their X accounts in the comments. You should give them a follow and obviously check out apexi. As I said, they're my go to source of information when I want to actually sound smart talking about these things. Thank you for that. And so I look forward to having you guys on the show a lot more and definitely on spaces a lot more as well because that helped a lot having you on that space when we discussed these topics.
- [29:57]
B
Thanks Scott. Thanks everybody. Thanks Brian.
- [30:01]
A
Thanks guys. See you soon. All right. Really, really interesting. Obviously treasury companies right now remain, I think the biggest topic in the space and important to get accurate and information straight from the source. So I know these guys are doing it the right way. So always going to them when I need to figure out what the hell is going on in this market. Gonna go ahead and bring on Chris. What's up man?
- [30:25]
D
Man, you know bitcoin since overnight there up a little bit.
- [30:30]
A
113, 120, 113, 126. That's a nice little candle though. I mean we got three little. And we got some bullet. Your favorite, our favorite signal. We got some really nice bullish divergence there too. But yeah, yeah, the four hour and the six hour but pretty well.
- [30:47]
D
I'll tell you man, this is, you know, anybody that follows me, I've started every Tuesday. I join in with this trading Tuesdays spaces and it's got myself and bits of wealth and trade fly and a couple other people on there and it's just a really great space. We kind of talk openly about, you know, the finer points of trading. And so yesterday we talked about this actually happening during that show there and we had this, you know, it was the, the swing low here and we said, okay, well we're looking for potentially a sweep of that low move up. And it's exactly what we got. You know, definitely not hating it. You know, we're finding support at that, at that range support there. I mean you couldn't have asked for a better pullback there. It's basically, you know, there between the 61.8, the 70 and a half retracement. But we've run up here and so what am I looking for now? Well, I like it. I like on the daily that we've got this reset of stochastic RSI into oversold here. We've got RSI still kind of trying to hang around the, the neutral area, which is good. But so far, like you said, pretty good candle, nice bullish engulfing candle. And we just want to see some follow through. And so we do have this blue pivot here. This is the monthly pivot just sitting right above us, holding his resistance. And so what I want to see is a daily candle, a nice impulsive candle, break out and close above that to kind of signal that low is likely in. But we need to break out above 116 up here, 116, 217 on this chart. If we can get that, that'll add confidence. The whole idea we're heading up and my initial target to the upside will be right up here around this 122, 256. But if we are breaking out above that 116, 217, I think for all intents and purposes, we've all but confirmed that that low is in and we're going to new all time highs, which I know is very anti bear and I know there's a lot of bears out there right now who keep, you know, swearing to people that the top is in, but we're just not seeing it yet. There's not anything that's happened here that says that top is in. Right. So, you know, everything kind of doing the way we were looking when it was down here, we were looking for the rally up to the EQ of the range here and that structural 117, 440 and 43 cents. We got the breakout there. That should indicate that that's three waves down, which is corrective, which should indicate that we're heading up again. With Wyckoff here, this becomes a spring rally. We get a last point of support here. Looking to head up higher. I mean, just everything seems to be aligning at the moment. But locally, what you can look at locally. Let me kind of zoom in here a bit. Is, you know, I said that monthly pivot which is sitting just above here and really there's a swing high right here that I'm interested in. And I'll see if I can pull that in there a bit. Maybe not. Oh, there it is. Yeah, the 113, 545.82 on this chart. I really want to see a close up above that. If we can get a close above that. I'm feeling A lot stronger about that low being in there. But we did have, you know, again we had this very nice, just this dip down here and this move back up. And as a matter of fact, this right here, right, right before this happened, I was recording my evening update for our students and I said, yeah, it looks like we're going to take out this low. We'll probably get right about this area where we went to. I said, and I'll look for a reaction off that. If we can get that back up, we should be good to go, you know, toward the top here and potentially even higher. And you know, we ended up getting it. So feeling really good overall about it. But I do want to see some follow through, you know, for bitcoin here. But the structure itself, this is, this is fantastic structure. I don't know how you see something like this even without everything else on here. I don't know how you see this. You get bearish, right? You've got support, you've got support right here. You've rallied back up, you pull back again to this support. I mean it's, it's exactly what you're looking for. Things are holding where you expect them to, so definitely not, not, not, you know, upset about this at all.
- [34:50]
A
Today's standoff looks really good. It's helping.
- [34:53]
D
What was that?
- [34:54]
A
Today's candle's looking really good. It's helping a lot. If it starts to close like this, you know, clearly there's some seller exhaustion.
- [35:02]
D
And of course we do have, you know that there's still a lot of hours into the end of the day. Right. So you know, there's still a lot of time, still another eight plus hours, but so far, like you said, looking good. So let's just see how this day daily candle kind of finishes.
- [35:16]
A
What do you got on the. In the altcoin world and Aster, there's actually like quietly like people haven't, I don't think been paying attention. But even in this kind of downtrend there's been a couple just monster token launches which has not been a thing for a very long time. I know that's not what you look at. Yeah, but like Aster was up, I don't know, 10, 20, 30, 100, I don't know how many percent. Obviously that has BNB. There was another one I was watching, it's called Hemi, which because I know Matthew Roszak and Jeff Garzak. I mean this thing launched here, it's up, you know, over 10x or something from the lows. A Month ago. That is not something that happens in a bear market. I'm just. Just as a general aside.
- [35:55]
D
Yeah, yeah, exactly right. And you know, bear markets don't, you know, start with everybody being all upset that it's a bear market. Right. That realization comes at the end of the bear market, and then everybody sells and then it goes up. Right. So I'm still, you know, I think alts are still looking somewhat constructive. I've zoomed out a bit here because daily we've just got a lot of overlap, but we do have this support right here on the yearly S1 pivot that it seems like this is Arc Arkham USD Arkm. And you know, since back here. You're right, exactly. Since back at the beginning of March, I mean, basically we've been finding support. We've been range bound here around that, the yearly S1 pivot. I do like the move so far. We had a big bit of volume on this push here, and we've got a pullback into it. So I'd like to see some continuation where we're out here pushing out higher. And if we can get that, I think initially we get kind of this 85, almost 86 area. And I think what we may end up seeing is something like maybe like this, then kind of a pullback just below it right here and then maybe up here toward that dollar, you know, basically a dollar and a half almost to that yearly pivot. So this is kind of what I'm looking for. I like the. The volume here within the range and whatnot. But I am cautious. I am cautious because this is a lot of volume. You know, you've got this uptrend here, and this is the top of the uptrend so far, and there's a lot of volume there. So we definitely want to see a breakout above that and a close above that to kind of nullify that as controlling, you know, action there. So again, if we can, you know, get this breakout here above whatever that is, there's 711. I think initially we head up here to around 86 cents. And then we kind of pull back and like I said, then you get that nice big move maybe from, you know, 55, 60 cents on up there to like a dollar and a half on the next, then jaunt up from there. So. But I do like it. I do like the, you know, the sideways here and setting up. So we'll see if we can get this to follow through. Let me see here. Again, still zooming out. Right. So I've got IMX USD here. It's got its own bit of a range. You can see that we've got a lot of volume build up down here in this area. And then of course we pumped out higher and so kind of like the other one, you know. And you're going to see this on all the alts. It's pretty much the same kind of week, the same day, there's that you have that big spike of volume. So in this case here, once again, you know we got the big spike, volume, breakout, the pullback. But I'm thinking, you know, as I'm looking at this I'm thinking these breakouts may have just been kind of clearing this overhead supply before kind of going through. Right. So here on the weekly, on this weekly. Let me see if I zoom in a bit here. You can see we got a nice hammer looking candle here and it's only Wednesday so still more days left in the week but again looking for this to continue higher here up toward probably like a $24, $25 would be my next initial target area. And then with this one in particular, I'm looking at this much bigger range here. This looks pretty decent for a range here. And so if we can get this as a bit of accumulation all the way from back here around. Wow. Basically the bare market low in, in, in 22 to the sweep here. If we can run this as a, as an accumulation we've got significant upside coming in here. We should break out to new all time highs. So getting us above $6 there on this pretty easily. So but right now locally looking for that 124-81248 there's and you know, and again with that I think maybe we get a pullback down here toward this 80 cent area and then a breakout higher up again toward almost $2 $1.90 up here. So kind of like that other one, you know, you get this break out of here higher, you pull back to the previous range here and then you rally up and in this case, you know, at least right around this $90 area. And at that point we might get, you know, a pullback down here toward you know, $1.20 25 and then potentially, you know, that breakout higher there. But overall making its way up to swing low here. And then I've got Algo here. We all know Algo, right? Yeah, we all know. I'll go so I'll go's had a couple of nice breakouts along the way here. We rallied up into the yearly pivot. We've pulled back it looks like we want to break out higher. So you know, again, I just want to see a breakout above this descending resistance here, a nice impulsive breakout and close above it. And I think at that point the likelihood is that it does rally up here toward about $0.46, 0.463 up in that area. So a little bit over twice where it's at at the moment here. But once again, you know, the idea being that we'll kind of rally up into there and then pull back here and then, you know, maybe down here around 30 cents and then kind of break out higher of this larger range here itself, which again, like the other one, if this sets up, then we can kind of get that break out there. There's, you know, good, good chance to see it running up above $3 and more there from, you know, where we're at. But it's not going to happen over day, you know, overnight. Right. This is a weekly time frame. Again, you know, this low over here was that in. This was in 20, March of 20th. So Covid, you know, and then we broke down here 23. And now we've been making higher lows and higher highs since then. So really looking for that break out there to kind of get to this point, which then really opens up that move up here to a $53. Hitting that $3. You know, you get a pullback here and then really opens up the breakout much higher there. So, you know, I think all still looking constructive overall. If you zoom out to a larger time frame, the local time frames are a little more questionable on it. But you know, that's what you do. You know, you don't just sit there and look at the 5 minute time frame all the, all the time and say, oh my God, it's the end of the world and this thing's ending and that thing's ending. You got to zoom out a bit and use that larger time frame as your, you know, your big reference point and then you zoom into the smaller time frames and see if you can get some trades in those smaller time frames.
- [42:22]
A
Yeah, I think the market's about to heat up big time.
- [42:26]
D
Well, I mean we hit, you know, on total three there, we hit what, 1, 1.15 trillion just recently and it pulled back to 1.08 and it feels like, oh my God, we're losing so much. But for the month, two months prior, you know, it couldn't get above a trillion, you know, and then it was sitting at 1.02 to 1.05 for another month. Month and a half. So the fact that we've kind of, you know, popped up to 115 and then pulled back to 108, and we're kind of sitting above where we were for months there, you know, kind of like, you know, what we see on the charts with the support. Right. So I think there's a lot of opportunity potentially getting ready to open up. But, you know, we do want to make sure we're looking for, you know, we're not entering just because there's a chance. Right? You want to find those, those proper entries there, use proper risk management, good stop losses, and then just, you know, trade with it.
- [43:16]
A
Love it. Where can people check you out after this show, man?
- [43:21]
D
Follow me at TX West Capital here on X, man. You can follow me at Texas west capital on. On YouTube as well. I do a couple of shows a week there. Matter of fact, we've got beards and bitcoin with yours and my friends there, Andrew and Tillman, coming up here at 11am Central, 12pm Andrew's beard is less.
- [43:38]
A
Impressive than it was, but still solid, man.
- [43:40]
D
You know what? He told us he was going to shave it on the show, and then he came in with that baby face on the show, and I was just like, you got to grow that beard back in.
- [43:49]
A
I think he's working.
- [43:50]
D
And other than that, they can catch us over at members.texaswestcapital.com learn how to do the thing, guys. Don't think it's just gonna happen because osmosis, you know, learn how to trade. My God, there's so much money to be made if you do it proper.
- [44:03]
A
Especially if we go into this bull market that everybody's talking about that apparently we haven't been in for the last year. I don't know. Anyways, guys, that's all we got for you. Chris. Thank you as always. Everybody go give them a follow and we will see you all next week. Peace.
- [44:18]
C
That's dope. Let's do.