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- [00:02]
A
Bitcoin adoption is erupting as banks take a deep look at the crypto industry, including the Federal Reserve of the United States of America. Yes, that Federal Reserve that is the enemy of all things bitcoin and crypto, the same one that prints a bunch of money and is the reason that we have bitcoin in the first place, is actually looking at real adoption of of crypto banking. Rails. We're going to talk about all of that and more now. Let's go.
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B
Let's do.
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A
Let's do. Good morning Wolf Pack and Trolls in the comments. I hope that you're having a wonderful Wednesday morning. We do have Christopher Inks joining on the back. How half of the show we missed him last week because we had Peter Schiff awkwardly watching James Heckman talk for hours about how cold sucks. Today we will have Chris back and it will be just me alone on the first half of the show. It's me. Hi, I'm the problem. It's me. Let's take a very quick look at the market just to set the stage a little amuse. Boosh. As NLW said last week, got Bitcoin trading at $108,000. Ethereum 3845 down about 6% in seven days, but basically flat in the last 24 hours. And you can go down the list here and see what all of our beloved coins are doing. Yesterday was absolutely stupid. Some of the lamest price action we've seen in forever. It's all over. We're so back. It's all over. We're so back. There's a chart obviously of what the incredible arch public algorithms did for me. Buying at the dead bottom of the move, selling at the top of the move and buying again right about current prices. But as you see from this candle, we had a massive up move on the six hour, only to be retraced and engulfed entirely in the following six hours. How absolutely stupid is this market when it does things like this? Now, we had a bunch of crazy narratives. Everybody's been talking about the inevitable top of gold. And gold does look like it's topping, at least temporarily. And how there would be a massive rotation right back into bitcoin, of course. Is that what we saw? Well, we have seen gold going down. Worst day in over a decade. Gold was down from a high yesterday of 34,376 all the way down to basically 4,089. Continuing to sell off today. Worst daily move in over a decade. Silver. This is the monthly not what you want to see if you are a silver bug, if that's even a thing, obviously wicking way up past the previous all time high and coming down. But on the daily you had silver down from 52 bucks all the way to like $47. We're talking about 8 or 9% moves like illiquid shitcoins in 2021 on some of the largest market cap assets on the planet. Moving gold, which is like a $30 trillion asset, that much in a day is absolutely astounding. And it's funny because you know all we were talking about yesterday, if you looked at the news, this is at 11:26am Gold investors rotating into bitcoin in real time. Of course you got, you know, gold dumping as bitcoin went up. Let me remind you, right after all of the holy shit, it's happening rotation, people started screaming because apparently a one or two hour data point is enough to talk about a rotation from the world's largest asset into one of the world's smallest. It immediately retraced and they both ended up jumping off together. So an important note to be careful what you listen, to be careful about FOMO and excitement and euphoria, because last I checked that lasted about six hours on that nice big candle up where bitcoin was going up while gold was going down. You cannot draw massive conclusions from things that happen in a matter of hours while going over the markets. Here we've got the 10 years still trading below 4% but bouncing a bit. And of course the dollar kind of looks like it's in a bull flag if we're being real. But the dollar is trading below 100 on the DXY and many people calling for much lower. But the real story of the day, obviously the one that sort of the title is based on Bitcoin adoption erupts as bitcoin banks prepare for the next wave. What banks could we possibly be talking about? It's the Federal Federal Reserve bank, the one led by that guy Jerome Powell, who awkwardly had to wear a hard hat and explain to the President of the United States why there were line items on the budget of construction of a building that have nothing to do with him, that he should know about, that he was wasting so they could try to fire him, even though they were unable to fire him and they're never going to be able to fire him. I was like that scene in Ace Ventura where he explains Finkel and Einhorn all in one breath. But yeah, we have a new Fed proposal from Christopher Waller, who said it, the Fed explorers payment account that can pull crypto into the heart of US Finance. The Federal Reserve is charting a bold new course by exploring a payment account framework that could give fintechs and crypto firms streamlined access to its core payment system. They were calling it Skinny Skinny Account, ushering in a transformative era for blockchain integration in US Finance. Now, we are all obviously Fed scholars and know everything about the Fed because we read about it once on Twitter. But if you do a bit of a deep dive, there's this thing called the Fed Master account. That's how banks attach to the federal system. It's what makes basically the entire banking system work. And you'll remember that our good friend Caitlin Long from Custodia bank applied for one of these Fed Master accounts. Her bank, by the way, fully backed, not a fractional reserve bank. And they were rejected. Here was her reaction to this news. Thank you, Governor Waller, for realizing the terrible mistake the Fed made in blocking payments only banks from Fed master accounts and reopening the access rules the Fed enacted to keep Custodia bank out. The Fed told courts that such firms would put financial stability at risk for being inherently unsafe and unsound. Thank you for admitting that's not true. It never was true. Wyoming SPDIs have been trying to get this point for five years. All legally eligible institutions. Finally. So it looks like there's going to be a slightly limited version of the Fed Master account that they will be calling a payment account, where stablecoin issuers and smaller banks and crypto firms and fintech banks are going to be able to correct connect directly to the Fed system. There's actually a great FAQ here on this about what that is. What is the Federal Reserve's payment account framework? It's a proposed model that can offer fintech and crypto firms streamline access to Federal Reserve payment services without granting full master account privileges. Why is this important? It represents a major institutional shift recognizing defi and blockchain as core components of the evolving financial system. How could this impact fintech innovation? Fintechs may gain direct settlement capabilities, improving efficiency, reducing costs, and accelerating new payment technologies. What does this mean for US Financial infrastructure? The move suggests a foundational transformation as the FRED embraces blockchain integration into its core systems. And don't just take my word for it, guys. Here is Christopher Waller talking about crypto. And let's just zoom out and even try to pinch ourselves and realize that the Fed had an entire roundtable yesterday on payments specifically about blockchain and crypto. We can discuss whether that's good or bad? Last time I checked, the Fed was literally the final boss in this entire globalization of Bitcoin. They were the worst. This is clearly one step closer to a central bank digital currency. But let's forget all of that and talk about how crazy it is that the Fed is literally having a meeting about this. And here's what Waller had to say. Let's check it out.
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B
This is an acknowledgment that distributed ledgers and crypto assets are no longer on the fringes, but are increasingly woven into the fabric of the payment and financial system. Now, before we hear from these innovators, I would like to touch on roles that the Federal Reserve plays to support the private sector. These include serving as a convener to solve coordination problems and operating core payment and settlement infrastructure. We are also looking ahead, conducting hands on research on tokenization using smart contracts and the intersection of AI and payments for use in our own payment systems. We do this to understand the innovation happening within the payment system as well as to evaluate whether these technologies could provide opportunities to upgrade our own payment infrastructures and to enable us to have deeper conversations with the industry on these new technologies.
- [09:15]
A
Okay, once again, I don't, I can't cheer for the Fed. I don't know, I just can't do it. It's the Fed. It's a corrupt organization that's pseudo government related that controls our money supply and creates inflation and basically makes all of us poor, running on a hamster wheel where our destination just becomes farther and farther and farther as we run in place. But yes, they are at least admitting that we have a underlying technology here that's better than the 1970s garbage that they created and still use in the banking and payment systems? I mean, have you ever tried to send like a wire for something important to somebody in a foreign country and it has to go from your bank and then it has to go to their bank, from their account, to your account and there's a $15 fee and maybe a $30 fee and it takes a while week and then it takes two weeks and then they say it's blocked and it can't come. I can literally just do all of this. I can send 30 cents in a stable coin on like Tron for basically free to somebody in Tanzania right now while we're doing this. And maybe the Fed is realizing that that's a better way than their stupid antiquated systems that they've been using. I mean, look what he says, right? Look at this quote. I mean it's nuts. Fed Governor CHRISTOPHER Waller that's not it. FED Governor CHRISTOPHER WALLER Crypto is woven into the fabric of the payment and financial system. This isn't like some half assed analyst at JP Morgan. It's Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying that crypto is woven into the fabric of the payment and financial system. I mean, it is absolutely bananas that this is the place that we are at at this point. And we do know that whether we can capture that value in an investment or a token, that the actual technology created by Bitcoin and underlying all of the things that are being built in crypto is the future and it is what banks are going to settle on moving forward. It really does worry me about the CBDC though. Obviously we talk about not having a central bank digital currency, but all of these things are clearly a step closer to the Fed realizing that if it just digitizes our money, it can perfectly control the entire money supply. I mean, think about what they could do with a cbdc, right? We have determined that you owe some completely random amount of taxes. And since you are connected to the Fed through a cbdc, we are going to just remove that money from your wallet. Oh, we don't like what you said about the President today. So we're going to remove 5,000 of the $10,000 that are in your wallet. Oh, we would like to stimulate the economy. We are going to airdrop you some CBDC shitcoins directly into your wallet. One of the biggest problems that the Fed has with controlling the money supply is cash and knowing where the money goes. Can you imagine a world where they know exactly where every single penny in the entire financial system is and have control about how it goes in and out of each individual's wallets? That is a scary place. And I would just like you guys to realize. I'm not saying we're doing a cbdc. I'm not saying that this is a cbdc. I'm not one of those panicky little girl people that says things that are hyperbolic just to scare you when it's not actually what you're looking at. Just make shit up. But it's not a far jump to think that it's possible in the future that once the Fed realizes how superior this technology is, they could use it for what we would view as nefarious purposes and what would be billed by the Elizabeth Warrens and others of the world as grand innovation and improvement in our money. Oh, look how amazing it is.
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B
It's digital.
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A
It's so fast. It's so cheap. It's fast and cheap when it's decentralized and I have the power to send it wherever I want without people surveilling it. Very scary if it gets into the hands of the Fed. Meanwhile, we talk about operation choke point 2.0. Quite often the problems that we've had in the banking system for the crypto industry we just talked about. Caitlin Long, Custodial bank is probably the poster child for operation choke point 2.0. Well, it's not over. There's still problems. Senator Lummis is pushing U.S. regulator to finalize open banking rule backing crypto. She warned that banks have weaponized account access against crypto firms, urging the CFPB to finalize the rule as soon as as possible. Here's what she said. Large banks have shown the restrict access for political reasons. We know that targeting industries and individuals they disagree with, including gun manufacturers, digital assets, churches and even the President sent a letter to the CFPP expressing my strong support for the open banking rule. And when you dig into this rule, it was finalized on October 22, 2024 and allowed consumers to share financial data with third party apps via APIs, which is critical infrastructure for connecting bank accounts to crypto exchanges. Well, as you'll see here, banking industry groups, lobbyists sued the same day the rule was finalized. But a federal judge paused the lawsuit in July, granting the CFPP time to reconsider. Well, now they need to put it into law, as she's saying, to protect us in case things go the other way. Obviously in the midterms, a lot of news here that's just about the large banks. Tom, we're going to keep moving on here. We're going to talk a bit about the market again because we're actually going to get some data from the United States government even in the shutdown on Friday. We anticipate us, we anticipate us CPI data being released. So there you go. Data for jump over 120,000 or decline to 100,000. I don't think CPI is going to give us either of those prices to be quite honest, because here we are just chilling at about 108,000 and I don't think anyone believes or cares about CPI data so deeply anymore. Do you? Do you believe it? Tell me in the comments, since we're alone, how much trust do you have in the CPI data that we see released on any given month? Go ahead. I would like to see who deeply believes it because I don't believe it at all. I think that the Fed uses LAGGING incomplete data. I think that we know that CPI is conveniently reconfigured as to how it is calculated. Arthur Burns famously did that in the 1970s. We've seen it done in the past as well. But literally there's nobody here. Zero. Right? All of you. Zero. Zilch. Absolutely none. None. But market moves. That's exactly the point, Miguel, is that the market moves temporarily on data that we know is lagging and nonsense. And now it's coming from a government that is shut down. And here's the best point from John. It probably gets adjusted just like job numbers. The market reacts to it. Everybody makes a big deal, and then quietly, when you're not looking, all of the data changes down the road. But we do know that in a world right now where we're getting no data, maybe it will cause a little more volatility when we get this data. But I just wanted it to be at least on your radar that this is something that is happening this week. That was another tweet about gold I just brought up. Nobody's caring about that anymore. And while we're talking about the banks and the government and all the people that we still now apparently cheer for as they can make the number go up. I. I can't. It's so hard for me because we talk about it every day and yes, it's great and I. Mainstream adoption and all of this, but like, we just cheer politicians and like blackrock and stuff now. It's really weird, but crypto leaders descend on Capitol Hill for market structure talks. This is happening today. Trump's cryptos are David Sachs and top industry execs meet send Democrats and Republicans to push market structure reform. We thought that clarity was basically a given at this point. Market clarity, which is the Clarity Act. It is not right. We've seen some major pushback recently from the Democrats who are needed to vote for this. The pro crypto Democrats took some exception with the. The market structure bills that were being proposed. And the Republicans were basically like, yeah, no, bro, we're not doing any of that. And this got completely frozen. So now we're at the point where they're inviting the industry. They got Sergey from Link and Brian from Coinbase, even Hayden from Uniswap. Decentralized protocol is really interesting. They're all there right now talking through what market structure could look like, what the Clarity act could look like. And it's actually really important at this point. They get this right now. Remember, I've said this a million times, but it's Hard to cheer for legislation. You know, they'll kind of get it wrong and you know, they'll mess it up and there'll be unintended consequences down the road. But we literally need something or else we could be fully back in the Gensler era after the midterms in a year and all of this progress could be erased because it hasn't been codified in law. And we know that executive orders down the road will just be reversed by the next president. So we need legislation on things like a strategic bitcoin reserve and certainly on market structure to at least give us some base that can't be reversed immediately. I mean, imagine a world which would be the world if the Democrats win the Senate. And we know, we know whether you want to be like have cognitive dissonance about it, when one team rules two years later, usually the other team is able to capture back at least one part of the government. Elizabeth Warren would be the head of the financial Senate Financial Committee. And we would once again have an anti crypto army with a major position of power pushing back against all the things that we're trying to do. That includes what the hell is a security and what the hell is a commodity and can exchanges also be custodians? And all the basic rules of the road that are needed for companies to understand how they can operate in the United States. And I've still talked to companies that don't want to come back to the US until they see this, because they, they're worried that they would come back, make a massive commitment, spend a whole bunch of money, and all of a sudden they'd be the bad guy again in a year or in two and a half years. So I understand, I see the comments. Crypto is not the US but if you want to have crypto in the US unfortunately you need these laws. I agree with you. Crypto is worldwide. Anything that's happening in the US that does get blocked, even if we don't get these, will continue to innovate in friendlier jurisdictions. But the United States is the largest economy in the world, is the financial leader of the world because America, yeah, Team America. But knowing that it would be really nice if crypto wasn't banned in the United States, or at least crypto companies weren't de facto banned in the United States like we had in the past. If you want to talk about the United States power, US crypto usage grew 50% this year. Report claims. A new report claims that US retail investors are showing increasing favorability to crypto with adoption growing by 50% this year, although its largest market, India had even higher rates of grassroots usage. Not a surprise, because as much as we hate all those antiquated systems I talked about before, it's really easy in the United States to send money to someone else in the United States, just not that hard. But stable coins are growing to unprecedented levels, allowing users convenient on and off ramps between TradFi and Web3. Retail hype for digital assets is growing, even though institutions are becoming influential. Here you go. Crypto transaction volume in the US rose by roughly 50% compared with the same period in 2024 to over USD a trillion. This cements the US's position as the largest crypto market globally in absolute terms, highlighting that this growth is part of a sustained multi year trend it claims. So yeah, once again, tell me why it doesn't matter if we have major crypto adoption in the United States whether we want it to or not. That is the absolute reality of things. And you want to talk about adoption? Six trillion. Fidelity, who, to be fair, were the first institution that cared about this industry. They've been mining for like 10 years. They were very open to crypto from the very beginning. They say bitcoin and crypto are becoming central in their conversations with clients. Zooming out. Forget about price. 108. It could go to 100. It could go to 125, bro. Bear market, bull market. Who cares, man? Zoom out and look at the tailwinds that this industry has. You have Fidelity, one of the largest financial institutions in the country, saying that it's central in their conversations with clients. I've talked to people at Fidelity. Crypto is a part of conversations with every single person that they talk to. We know that's true of BlackRock and others. And at the same time, you're having a meeting right now on Capitol Hill with our entire industry, all of our leaders talking to the key Senate Republicans and Democrats about market structure. Zooming back a couple more minutes. Christopher Waller, one of the Fed governors, is talking about utilizing blockchain technology to replace the entire Fed master account system. So yes, we can obsess about price on a day to day basis and we could talk about my bullish divergences with RSI all day. But it's like a wet dream of adoption when you zoom out and look at all of the people that are talking about this industry and all the actual things that are happening. And none of that was happening a year ago because crypto was absolutely freaking dead here in the United States of America. So it's just pretty wild. It's not only the United States. Russian Ministry of Finance and the central bank have agreed to legalize payments in crypto for foreign trade. Now that's anti United States, right? We all know that most foreign countries are trying to dump their Treasuries if they could. They can't buy gold, things like that. But we've heard the rumors that BRICs would create their own currency and that they would try to settle outside of the US dollar because they're sick of our predatory money that's destroying the world, which it is. But legalizing payments in crypto for foreign trade, if this actually caught on would be a huge deal. The thing is they're probably going to end up using stablecoins, which is just hyper dollariz it. But regardless, we are seeing real adoption of the technology all around the world. Now I know Chris will be here momentarily, but a couple other stories worth noting. Crypto trading firm Falcon x to buy 21 shares in ETF. Push 21 shares. I've had Ophelia Snyder on. You'll recognize their name from many of the ETFs that have been approved, especially the ARC one. She's kind of like the protege to Cathie Wood. But this is actually a major deal. Basically taking a trading firm, an OTC desk that's buying out at 11 billion dollar asset under management ETF issuer to consolidate that into the United States. Just another piece of big move, big news where we're seeing major institutionalization of crypto. And then another one worth noting. Crypto exchange HTX sued by UK for unlawful promotion of assets. This of course course is Justin Sun. But I love all of the stories as dumb as this is, mention Donald Trump somehow because the exchange somehow has links to the Trump family because Justin sun had something to do with World Liberty Financials. So anything now apparently Justin's son does is somehow about the Trumps because welcome to the media. It is Bloomberg after all. It is Bloomberg after all. But we're gonna go ahead and wait. I know Chris is showing up right now. Before we dive in to talking about Chris, let me find the tweet. I wanted to point this out because you know we have an amazing sponsor every Wednesday. That is Aptos 500 million more of BlackRock. Biddle just landed on Aptos. This pushes the Aptos back into the top three in RWAs with 1.2 billion in tokenized assets on chain. Now number two in Biddle adoption institutions are choosing Aptos the chain to move what Matters. If you are building in this space, consider them. They've been a longtime sponsor almost a year now and watching their incredible progress and adoption over that time has been really a marvel. Going to go ahead and bring on Chris. Chris, I regret that you were not here last week. I know it was a last minute cancellation. We had this whole Peter Schiff thing, but like I love having you on, so that would have been better, obviously. Honestly. Also maybe like having dental surgery live on camera might have been less painful than last Wednesday.
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B
Well, yeah, I watched it. I caught it. That was.
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A
It wasn't even him. That was. Yeah, it was just brutal. It was just.
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B
Yeah, it was interesting. But you know, Peter Schiff always kind of changing directions, you know. Now with gold taking the big pullback, you know, we can expect that he's going to give us reasons why. But, you know, if bitcoin does it, it means, you know, an absolutely terrible thing. If gold does it. Oh, it's just fine.
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A
Oh, just a healthy pullback, man. I will say. Yeah, you see the beginning of the show, but I'm just dying that people were talking about the big rotation of Gold into Bitcoin like 12 hours ago. And then six hours later it was like, we're dead again.
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B
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I've still got. I'm still looking at it. I still think things looking pretty good. The big thing about Gold is if you zoom out to like a monthly on it, you'll see this insane trajectory up here that we've had here. And the one thing that most people don't understand is gold as a commodity. Most commodities, they get that, that like that parabolic move at the end. Right. It's at that peak fear. It's when everybody's scared something bad is going to happen. Right. So everybody buys it.
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A
Monthly RSI, that's the monthly. Monthly RSI on gold is 91.1.
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B
Yeah. Just absolutely insane. So monthly.
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A
Monthly, that might be. I mean, that's the highest I can find since.
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B
Yeah.
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A
It appears the 1970s. And we all know what was happening in the 1970s. Yeah. A little stagflation going on there to power that one. So we're. Yeah.
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B
And if you zoom to the weekly, you'll see that we've got basically tweezer tops printing there on those weekly candles.
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A
Right there at the perfect tweezer top. Holy crap. I didn't see that.
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B
Yeah. So at least a pullback, but potentially a top there. So. Yeah.
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A
I mean, look you look at this. I'm sorry. Just to look at that. Chart. Okay. I mean, yeah, monthly, like mas are flying, but you expect at least tests of these eventually, Right. That'll come up to meet it. But the monthly is at 2200 just for the 50. The weekly screaming up, but 3200 just to hit the 50 and you go back to the daily. We should all expect that it comes back to 3, 700 or somewhere around here just to test that 50 ma. I mean, that's just mean reversion. You can see it hugs it. Yeah, most of the time. Usually if you overshoot, you're going to come back and you add bearish divergence with historically overbought rsi. So very.
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B
Yeah. So a lot of things in there, you know, that say, hey, listen, gold, if anything is some sort of local top for a while, quite possibly, potentially maybe the top itself. But, you know, so what does that mean? That means money out of gold and into other places. Historically, it seems that bitcoin follows gold. So gold kind of does its move first and then bitcoin follows in afterward. But it's not necessarily just afterward. A lot of times the money will flow from gold into. Into other risk assets like stocks and whatnot, and then kind of flowing into bitcoin. But right now, you know, if we're looking at the chart, this is, this is still my read. And now this is a little bit different than if you look at, say, the bitcoin USDT chart on. On binance, where you have a higher low. But either way, they're both. When we're looking at this, suggest that we've got potentially a spring here. The test looks good. We've got significantly less volume than we had on the spring, you know, and we close back up here, you know, and then kind of followed up with some volume into kind of this 113 to 115 range. But here's the thing. We really need to see this kind of from about this area here over the next. I'd say probably just the next few days. We really kind of need to see this breaking out above this swing high here to really kind of add some confirmation into this. So, you know, as we watch here, I think the setup's good. I don't necessarily like this rejection here yesterday, but right now, if you zoom.
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A
Into the four hour candle. That was such a dumb candle. I mean, there you go. It shows on the four hour. If you do the six hour, the whole candle is the retracement. One up, one down.
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B
I mean, it's, it's, it's. It was just like yeah, you know, it is what it is. I mean it got us, you know, we were looking for that rejection right here, that 107 area. And so we got that, which was great. This is really kind of stupid here as far as price action goes. Try to figure it out. But you know, it is possible that we've got a leading diagonal here. Let me see. Kind of like, kind of like that there. So you get like a, a 1, 2, 3, 4 and then a 5. And the one thing about that is usually your diagonals are going to look kind of like this where you have the final push up that does a throw over of that resistance and then a sharp move back down. And that's often the hallmark of a proper wedge. So I've still got some hope for this. We pulled back here. We've got, you know like a three wave pullback it looks like. So if we can kind of pop up here would be great. But you know, at the end of the day instead of the lower time frame stuff, really what you're looking for is a breakout above. Well here on this bitcoin USD chart here on Coinbase, you want to break out above this 116 area. If you can get that. That low should be in. We should be going to new all time highs130,000. You know, here we come. But you know, otherwise this is all just sideways. This is all just noise right now we're breaking down below here. Obviously things are not looking as great at that point, you know, and there's a chance we could, you know, breach a hundred thousand at that point. So really this is just noise, you know, you're looking for, you know, if you're trying to trade this, a lot of traders going to get in there and it's going to try and do like just whenever there's a chance, right though under whenever there's a possible chance. It's the last thing you want to do in shop, right? When you're in shop you want to trade the extremes. So we've got kind of this range right here. You know, again we had this move down toward both range supports here and then we had to move back up toward this range. Resistance rejected, came back down. So if you're looking to play it, it would be zooming into a smaller time frame here. 15 minutes. I'm looking for a possible reversal that you can have going up. But you don't want to be playing like right here in the middle. You want to play the extremes. So that's what I'm Looking for, with, with bitcoin right there. We'll see how it plays out.
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A
By the way, I know you talk to the arch public guys but I've been running it like pretty heavy and look, look how crazy the six hour execution is.
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B
Oh yeah.
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A
Long to the dead bottom, closed at the dead top and long to get after the big candle down.
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B
Yeah, exactly, exactly. I mean yeah, I like it man. I like the guys, you know I like what they're doing there. You know if you want to hands off a pro. Well somewhat hands off approach I guess you got to set it up and everything first.
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A
Yeah, I think it's.
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B
You can, you can go a lot worse let's put it that way than what they're doing over there for sure. But yeah, so I mean you know right here still hold up support here. So again you know dropping out to the daily. We did have this, these lower lows here kind of coming in again until this move up. So I just, you know we're just here, we just, we're just kind of you know everybody wants to know well what's it going to do? What's going to do? Well we'll let it see and tell us. Hopefully from this point here we'll get this move up. Right now we've pulled back how far here? We pulled right back there around 70 and a half. So absolutely perfect area where I love to see it kind of reverse. So if we can we go up things will look good. If, if we can do that, if we can get a rally from this area, from around this area. Our next target up would be whoops, let me try that again.
- [33:43]
A
Would be $473,000. 400, yeah there you know 444,000.
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B
Right.
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A
All right.
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B
Sorry Josh Mans. Everybody's giving such a hard time for us. Also I saw one of the dumbest things. Somebody's like when are we gonna cancel this guy? He came out here losing people money. I'm like my God, he was just talking about money.
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A
We haven't even gone there yet.
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B
Yeah, it's crazy. But I would look at tomorrow. Yeah. If this is going to rally from here and get that breakout I would look for that. 123, 611 is kind of the next target area. And then 127, 587 those would be.
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A
My next right back to the range highs. I mean it makes. We're at the bottom of a range. People are pan thinking. When we were at the top of the range everybody was euphoric that we were going to 200.
- [34:25]
B
Exactly. Exactly. So, but, you know, this candle, I, Again, I, I, if I'm honest with you here, which I'm going to be, you know, I like the range, everything on it. I don't necessarily like this rejection with that much volume coming at it. So we really need to break out back above this, this range here to kind of get us some, some kind of really good feeling that that low may actually be in there. But, you know, we do that again, I think we run it to the top of the range. We break out a little bit, we pull back into the top half of the range here, and then we really do the takeoff for the next kind of move up there, I think. So. Alts. Alts are interesting. Most of them are looking like one of these other charts. I'll show you here. Let's start off with Cass here. Kas. Right now if, if we can get kind of this low to hold here and we can break out above that. 054982. I think our next starting up there's right there around that 0.065 area. And if we're doing that, the odds are we're just gonna. Overall, I mean, we'll get pullbacks along the way, but I think the low would be in here and we're going to continue up higher on that. If we lose this low here, the swing low area at about 047 or so would look here at the weekly S1 pivot point. 045 area. And what we do is look for reversal there. And if we can get a reversal there and a breakout above that pivot at 0.056, that should indicate that the low is in. And, you know, we're going to head up higher from there. So I like Cass here because it doesn't have a huge wick. Everybody else does. So it gives you a little bit more functional possibility on what's going on here as far as drawing conclusions with that. But most of them look kind of like near here. Right. And so I just laugh at those.
- [36:19]
A
Wicks because they're so ridiculous, you know. Charts. Yeah. Yeah.
- [36:24]
B
And, you know, and at the end of the day, I mean, here's the thing. Realistically, these are all looking like black corrections to me. It's, you know, it's, it's, it's, you know, the move down here and then the breakdown, right? And you just. Again, another spring, right? Large wick way down to close back up above halfway. Halfway above the range. And we're seeing that across so many of them. It's all very positive, but now we need to see some movement up, right. The pullback so far has remained at the S1 pivot here on the monthly. I love that. But here we are locally and again, it's kind of the same idea here, right? As long as this low here holds at this 2.5 cent area and we get this breakout higher, we should be looking up toward this 2.6, 2.65 area here as kind of our next target area. Breaking out through that should run us up to the top of the range back up here at about $3 and 10 cents and of course signal that we should be then ultimately heading up higher as well for near and then fed again another large.
- [37:30]
A
Yeah, that's some huge news about like that, that there's an A3AI tokens, ocean and fat AGS something. They came together, now they're going back apart. They're not.
- [37:41]
B
Yeah.
- [37:41]
A
And they were a team, but they're no longer a team.
- [37:44]
B
It's always something, right? So, I mean, for me, you know, I'm watching this kind of. If we're looking at the rsi, we've got this rising RSI as we've got this dropping price, we're starting to kind of, you know, maybe get more of a flat bottom here right at that, that weekly S1 pivot support. So if we can get, you know, a reaction off this area here starts rallying back up. We just want to see a nice impulsive breakout and close above this $0.31 level. And that should have us running back up here, you know, at least 41, 42 cents up here. And if we're getting that again, the odds are likely that the low is in, you know, way down here and we're going to end up having, you know, breaking out further there. But as always with me, you know, it's not a, hey, definite get in there. This is what it's going to do. It's like, listen, here's a level you need to go through. If, if we can get through it, if we can get through it this specific way, things are looking good. You know, I think things are looking better. But if not, and it breaks down further, here's our next downside target. And from there we'll kind of see, okay, we'll, you know, adjust. We'll say, are we getting the reaction we're looking for off that level? And if so, great. Want to see follow through through the pivot. If we don't, it continues down further. That opens up some potential narrative for, you know, further downside you know, on those larger time frames. So, but that's kind of where I'm sitting at the moment here. And you know, alts generally are looking like this. They're right around the, the, the weekly pivot or just under it. And so again, either it pops out higher and then more or less, that should indicate the low is in and we're going to continue up overall or it breaks down a little bit. We watch for the S1 pivot rejection, see if we can get it back above the pivot, and then that's usually a pretty good indication that that low is in and we're going to head up higher there.
- [39:32]
A
Yeah. My only concern, I guess with alts right now, and maybe it's because I got Ben Cowan when I had a conversation with him last week, you know, it's like if bitcoin does dump, alt will also obviously dump more.
- [39:43]
B
Yeah.
- [39:43]
A
And for alts to get really excited, we probably need bitcoin back up at the top of the range or breaking out of it. So that probably hurts them against bitcoin. At least they'll go up in usdt. So right now, like, I just don't see the great environment for alt short term to do well. But that doesn't mean that once one of those things happen, this won't give us like tradable bottoms or ranges to look at. Could be totally wrong, by the way. Bitcoin forever in the one, you know, 108 to 125 and all coins could go wild. That just hasn't been happening.
- [40:13]
B
Yeah, well, it's just, you know, it really is just about watching the structure develop right now. You know, if you really want to be safe and you should, you know, especially if you're, you know, looking at alts, take the smaller time frame trades as you can find them and you know, watch for the larger time frame kind of structure building before you get overly excited about it.
- [40:33]
A
So this person would like you to know that people are done with crypto.
- [40:36]
B
Well, or at least Pop.
- [40:38]
A
Seems like there's a lot that pop's done. I don't know Pop, but I've got to talk to him because I don't want him to be done with crypto. But nobody, I mean, listen, that's an emotional comment like who are these people and why are they watching my show if they're done with crypto or shows that get much bigger news or the Fed talking about it or blackrock, they're not done.
- [41:00]
B
Yeah, yeah. And again, you know, I'm not I'm not a big. You know. You know me, man. I'm not a huge. I don't trade a lot of the. The really small cap. You know what, I don't try to make, you know, 10x overnight and whatever. I've just been doing this too long. So for me, it's just about watching that overall structure, you know, across all the alts, you know, are they starting to pick up? Are they starting to set it there? Like I said, bigger time frame that. That dip the other week there absolutely looks clean. It looks like a really good spring on the very large range. And, you know, the larger the range, the. The further and stronger you get the breakout when it does. But we still. Because that wick is just so dang big. We really do. I want to say, yeah, great. That's the low. And I, I think it may be, but you need, you know, you need more complex.
- [41:46]
A
A lot of time for the dust to settle for something as nonsensical as happened like 10 or 11 days ago. I mean, you literally had some of those coins going to 0. 19 billion in liquidations. 12 times more than on FTX. Like a 4 fundamental breakdown of the entire industry. There's a lot of people who are really confused, really don't have money.
- [42:04]
B
Yeah.
- [42:05]
A
Or just sidelined, waiting for something to happen. When you see something like that, you just wait for the dust to settle, like you said, for some structure to form, and then we'll figure it out. But I don't think things look bad.
- [42:14]
B
Yeah, yeah, exactly. Exactly. And, you know, and what will happen is, you know, if that is the low and things do go up later and somebody's bought it down at these levels or lower, everybody be like, oh, you're so lucky. And you know, really, it's. It's just about understanding how that structure develops and what you're kind of looking for.
- [42:31]
A
Yeah, well, it's gonna be interesting to see what happens. And also, all of this price action on bitcoin right now is just hugging the 200 ma on the daily. So that. That's worth watching. And we got right now we got a nice reaction off of it again, giving us kind of a little bit of a, you know, nice long wick down there. So we're gonna see, man, I, I think, I think we're all getting all up in arms about some pretty meaningless price action and something nice is going to develop soon. Chris, thank you so much, guys. Give him a follow. TX West Capital. Check out everything he's got. Do you have a. Is this the day that you do beards and bitcoin.
- [43:04]
B
Yeah, man. Yeah, man. Here in just a couple hours, 11am Central, 12pm Eastern. So I'll be there with the guys from Try from Arch Public. I always want to say their their Twitter handle there.
- [43:13]
A
My Arch Public. It's so funny that none of you can ever shave your beards now because you gave it that name.
- [43:17]
B
Him. Well, you know, somebody did a little bit.
- [43:22]
A
He's working on it.
- [43:23]
B
Yeah, we almost fired him from the show, but we decided he was growing it back pretty quickly, so.
- [43:29]
A
All right, man. Thank you very much. Obviously, we'll be back with Chris next week, and I will be back tomorrow with Iago. We'll see you guys soon. Peace out. Thanks, Chris.