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Scott Melker
Bitcoin ETFs bled $1 billion as 30 year yields hit 5.14%. Japanese bond yields the highest they have been checks, notes ever. It seems like the bond market is trying to tell us something, but we don't care. We don't listen. Markets just go up. Don't you guys know that? We're going to talk about all that and everything else today with Tillman and Andrew. Let's get it, let's. Good morning everybody. Welcome to scenic New York City where the sky is a lovely purple this morning. I hope that you are all having a wonderful Tuesday and that you've done that, liked and subscribed or whatever I never tell you guys to do. Do you. Have you guys liked and subscribed?
Andrew
No, no, no chance. In fact, I've unsubscribed.
Scott Melker
What's the chance of getting everybody else to subscribe? Who's that talking over your shoulder?
Andrew
I have, I'm channeling my inner Mike McGlone. So I've got Bloomberg on in the background. Yeah, so. So given that IBIT has had outflow seven of the last eight days, I'm, I'm Mike McGlonian. Right.
Scott Melker
I've got to figure out why, why, how? I think it's all the carry trade. I've come to the conclusion that everything that's happening in the, you know, crypto ETF market is pretty much just the carry trade.
Andrew
Yeah, it's, it's. Well, first of all, you said that, you know, when you started the show, billion dollars in outflows from the ETFs, like 900 of that is, is BlackRock's ibit. Yeah, it's, it's. So the, the quote unquote carry trade associated with bitcoin options and the spot ETFs is just all BlackRock. It's all people playing with size in that particular market. And that's to be expected. That. That is to be expected. The options market with bitcoin options specifically ibit is so big, it, it has grown way faster than I thought it would. Yeah, kudos to Jeff park who said that it would get big really, really fast.
Scott Melker
We hired him yet?
Andrew
No, not yet. We should though. We should. I wonder what he's doing. That's an interesting question. We should have him on every week.
Scott Melker
Jeff. Yeah, I know you're watching.
Andrew
Doing next.
Tillman
Let me ask you all a question because it feels different this time. To me it feels like these, the big red candles that we're seeing in the market have no momentum behind them. They're just isolated events that just keep going each way.
Scott Melker
It's, it's, they're not even big. Like I, I, I, I know how big candles generally are because I'm running arch public algorithms and my, we're not triggering much these days.
Tillman
Yeah, yeah, no, you're right.
Scott Melker
There's no volatility, you know. Yeah, I had actually a 12 hour sell that came through recently which I was like, wow, my 12 hours in profit, that's ridiculous. No idea. I literally emailed the team, I was like, is there something wrong with my algorithms? I did a sell and it was like, you know, they run the daily, the 12 hour and the four hour. They're all separate cost basis and you're actually up. And I was like, wow, that is insane.
Andrew
Well, check the calendar. Is, is the answer to both Tillman and your points. It's May 19th. Sell in May and go away. So the, the totality of volume is going to, you know, seep lower and lower and lower and lower with lower volumes. Generally speaking, lower volatility. So, you know.
Tillman
Yeah, yeah, you know, I, I hope that the summer doesn't lose its luster. Last summer was pretty good and I, I think that everybody's been waiting for, you know, market movement to the upside for so long that, you know, if it terries for another three months, it's gonna, the price could, we could see another pretty big dip, which, you know, wouldn't be a bad thing from a buying perspective. But these dips, you know, it, they just lack confidence. All of the dips and all the pushes, there's no confidence behind them at all. Everybody's scared to death. And it's, you know, it's a testimony to how much cash is sitting on the sidelines. You know, $8 trillion sitting there waiting to be deployed. That's fear in its finest form. You know, people sit in cash when they're afraid. So it'll, it'll be interesting to see. You know, you look at the landscape right now from, you know, the war and just everything that's going on, you know, globally and you say, okay, is that really the catalyst? And once, you know, the Straits get opened up and you know, everything's back to normal, do we see a recovery that's, that's powerful? You know, and I think that's the question in everybody's mind because gas prices obviously would go down considerably, which would be a good, you know, catalyst. But you know, to Andrew's point, I think there's a tendency even myself to look at more of the micro events and try to read the tea leaves in all this stuff that really doesn't matter because it's just like the news of the day, the chatter of the day. If you pull back and you really start to say like, what are the macro events that can't be changed? Well, inflation and the printing of a dollar cannot be changed. Right. And then people cannot be changed. And the seasonality of people's attention and this, you know, sell in May and go away type of a deal. So I think there's a lot there and I think it's boring kind of in life to focus on those big seasonal changes because there's not much to do in between and to keep you occupied or to keep the dopamine hits coming. So I think we all are looking for those, you know, market news events that get volatility moving in our direction. And when they don't come or when they have lots and lots of fake outs for months on end, it's, it wears on everybody. But there's a lesson to be learned here. Right. It's like patience and having a prudent strategy from a capital placement perspective is always the answer.
Scott Melker
But I mean, meanwhile we're like 30, 40% off the lows. It's like as boring as it's been. It's just been boring because it's been a steady kind of low volume climb. I'm not, it'll continue or not, but like, you know, you told you, hey, we went from 60 to 80. Most people would be pretty excited.
Andrew
Yeah, yeah, most people would be.
Scott Melker
This didn't happen on the huge twenty thousand dollar candle we're used to from bitcoins of the past.
Andrew
Yeah. We're also talking about crypto Twitter though. And so, you know, people are bemoaning the fact that Solana is where it's at right now and that, you know,
Tillman
it's, it's the old coins. Did not, did not do what it was intended for them.
Andrew
Yeah. So there are moments, Scott, where I'm slightly disappointed in your management of this show.
Scott Melker
Thank you.
Andrew
And so I wanted to mention that here. Every time I hear Tillman or anybody say the word dip, you're missing an opportunity from your previous DJ years where you could be hitting a track that says, you put your hand up on my hip.
Scott Melker
That's freak nasty. That guy came to my high school.
Andrew
See, see, see, see the, the crossing that we could do with this show.
Scott Melker
I used to make that dip joke all the time back in my like free, free free flowing charting days. Yeah, Right now, if you want to see. Can y' all do this? Right?
Andrew
Well, here's the thing. You have this whole big setup back there. Like, I think that there's just a button you could make, a button that just starts playing that song for five seconds. Whenever.
Scott Melker
I used to have the buttons. Now the buttons are over there across.
Andrew
That's probably a good thing. Probably.
Scott Melker
Benny Hill. I used to do all the things, you know, Pump it up. I used to that one a lot.
Andrew
Yeah, Yeah.
Scott Melker
I got serious for a whole year for the.
Tillman
For the Bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Speaking of altcoins, you guys see this story because it's so funny how poorly it's being reported. Goldman Sachs dumped Salana XRP for surprising new investment. So that is. I love my friends at the round table. I didn't realize that's where we brought this up from the street. Since I'm a partial owner of that. No, I'm not sorry. That's not what happened. Goldman Sachs dumps Solana for surprising new investment, then goes on to say they invest in hyper liquid infrastructure. Those things have nothing to do with one another. There's not some guy at Goldman who's like, dump these two so we can afford the third one. Rotate. Goldman Sachs had built those positions in the Solana XRP ETFs, but they were probably like structural or like some sort of hedging or client facilitation related. Like, at no point did Goldman take an active position. And this should like, you know, pacify the Solana fans and XRP army who's seeing these insane headlines. But like, these companies move in and out of things for various reasons, and none of those are Goldman. That David Solomon like between his DJ sets and Ibiza was like, we need to get rid of those ETFs we bought right now. And it has nothing to do with their infrastructure, you know, investments in hyper liquid.
Tillman
But hey, headline was trading firm makes trade. I mean, like, what it. What's even there? Does it shock people that Goldman Sachs, a firm that makes a living trading things, trades in and out of things. Like, it just, it's. It's beyond me.
Andrew
Well, those investment banking firms, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the like, even blackrock, they're generally speaking asset managers, slash wealth managers. They're just holding positions on behalf of customers, whether they're retail or institutional. So Goldman Sachs didn't sell those positions. Their customers sold those positions for one reason or another. And their customers decided to take additional positions in hyper liquid or whatever. This is not Goldman Sachs, the company making These decisions on behalf of Goldman Sachs's book that, that rarely happens these days. That went out baby and bath water back in the great financial crisis. And all of these companies moved towards asset management, wealth management, a couple big ones moved to a custody type of model and that's how, that's how Wall street works now. So to your point, Goldman Sachs didn't make these decisions. Whoever their clients are that are moving in and out of these positions made those decisions and to Tillman's point, they facilitated those decisions. That, that's all that is.
Scott Melker
I can't believe Goldman Sachs has lost all their deep belief in. Let's talk a little macro though, you know like because things just a yacht there. US 30 year treasury yields closed at 5.14%. It's the highest closing level since the run up to the global financial crisis. Okay, once again, one doesn't mean the next the other is going to happen. But you take a look, I had charted this actually I don't really care about charts of yields but you could be having kind of a breakout there. And like I mentioned before, I mean Japan seeing historically high yields that they've completely lost control of. Seemingly it's kind of ugly out there. When you look at any Mac, you know, piece of data historically should be seeing a recession or some sort of collapse and things just keep on humming along. You just go channel your McGlone, Andrew, tell us how bad it is.
Andrew
First of all, kudos to you because you first brought up the 30 year which nobody cares about.
Scott Melker
Whatever man.
Andrew
Then you quickly pivot into the 10 year. So good job which everybody cares about. Yeah, again, so the, the, the term now is K shape recovery. Right. So we can talk about K shape markets. So yeah, there's, there's, there seems to be trouble per Mike McGlone in a lot of spots. But the markets generally are disinterested in that trouble and money keeps getting shoveled in. A point that was made by Tillman, I think on, on a much better show than this Beards of Bitcoin last week that there is now not just 7 and a half trillion dollars in money market accounts now there's 8 and a half trillion dollars sitting in cash and money market accounts now. And what is that? You could take that both ways. Maybe people are a little bit nervous. They're pushing money into money market accounts. But to a larger extent that just means there's more dry powder. So every time there's a dip of any kind in the market, shovel more money in, shovel more money in Shovel more money in like even yesterday. Take a look at markets yesterday and what they did started out the day pretty bad. Moving down, moving down, but by the end of the day down a really small amount. Right. That's typical of markets right now. Every dip, even house, no matter how small, is an opportunity in the minds of people that have dry powder.
Scott Melker
That's why I know what this better show was. Was it this show Heated rivalry?
Andrew
Yeah, that, that's it. That's the one.
Scott Melker
Is that the much better show you were talking about?
Andrew
Yeah, yeah.
Tillman
No, I think if you focus on that head, you can basically find what you want out there right now. If you focus on the AI headlines and what's happening in that space, we're going to be able to innovate our way out of any problem that we've been talking about. Like it's so disruptive, so large, so encompassing, so global. We have such a head start, honestly, and we control it in such a way that we, we could. You know, it's an, it's a proverbial arms race that we can take, you know, possession of and lead and it's happening. And if you go out and look at some of the data centers that are being built in the United States right now, it's jaw dropping. It's like next level engineering, next level innovation, high tech. I mean, I've seen a couple of them firsthand and they're the largest facilities I've ever seen and they're the nicest facilities I've ever seen. They're the most state of the art facilities I've ever seen. And we're talking about like, you know, 29 million square feet that has its own power plant and its own grid, its own water system. It's, it's. So the investment that is needed in that space will be answered with a big printing press response. And I don't know when that starts, but 8 trillion is going to be literally arounding your. When we get done with the AI in investment that needs to be made. And it's not going to just be, you know, physical plants and, and facilities, grid expansion and all that stuff. It's going to be private equity investments in companies that have figured out how to use AI in a way that's meaningful. And you know, just before we got on the show, somebody was being interviewed on, on Squawk Box about, you know, they're now worth a couple of billion dollars. And it's, it's directly pertaining to this show and to Scott specifically is that, you know, content creators There's a big problem that exists in that space and there's a market void that is AI can help solve which is compensating content creators not only for their efforts live but for the rebroadcasting efforts that are now being done by AI agents. So if I send an AI agent out to query about a specific topic and it comes to milkers, you know, website and it pulls a piece of information off that website and then I use it for commercial purposes, there are companies now that are going to be able to monetize that through and either block the AI agents and or enter into a smart contract where by which the agent compensates that creator for the use of that content. That this type of stuff is moving so fast and it's changing and it has the potential to change so many industries how that I, I, you know, when, when I hear that AI is going to kill jobs, I completely disagree. I think it's going to create so many new industries and so many new companies that are serving people at the end of the day. And imagine a universe where you could literally be disconnected from the desk or from your computer and, and seamlessly have agents managing all of your digital life for you. And you just have to ask yourself the question like over the next 10 years with agents being in the position that they're in, is the web going to be more utilized or less utilized? It's going to be more utilized.
Scott Melker
Why?
Tillman
Well, that's the only thing they can use. So they're going to build stuff, they're going, there's going to be an expansion of web content like you've never seen before. We've never seen before. So you know, all this doom and gloom. I think it's just a season and everybody's got to pull back and look at the overarching themes like yes, we will print more money. Yes, innovation is, is. It's not like we're sitting there in the stone age going, you know what's next guys? You know this is bleeding edge, groundbreaking world changing type stuff.
Scott Melker
We talk about bleeding edge world changing type stuff that I don't think is getting the attention it deserves. This on the Kobisi letter but this is being obviously discussed everywhere. Breaking the SEC is set to release its so called innovation exemption for tokenized stocks which will pave the path for trading digital versions of securities per Bloomberg. So there's calling this a surprise move. I can break this down for you instead of having to read it here. But what's interesting here is we've had like A there's a long history of the SEC and innovation exemptions. Basically in a situation where crypto comes along and you only have the Howie test, they're allowed to make rules that say, you know, we can do things with this new technology. They did it with, you know, high frequency trading systems and others. While we get the regulation in order to. What's crazy here is that they're leaning towards allowing tokenized versions of equities that are not approved by the issuer. That's what this is about. So we all know that they're going to move towards tokenized equities where somebody, where you have, if you hold the tokenized equity, it's backed one for one from one of the DTCC or one of the trusted entities and you get voting rights and all the things that come with a share. This is saying that anyone can go ahead and wrap these, send them off to a Dex and you can trade it with very opaque rules about like who the custodian is, where they're backed, they can be rewrapped potentially. So this is basically saying that Apple has no control over who, which they. I guess they technically don't. Anyway, anyone can buy Apple stock but at least they know you know, who has the governance and the voting rights and stuff. This is so you can send it off into, you know, hyper liquid as a tokenized version but has no actual rights and was not approved. A pretty wild difference.
Tillman
It's insane. I mean it's, it's like it's just derivatives on derivatives on derivatives and it's, it's going to be really interesting. I mean we're going to need AI to sort out all the options that we have from an investment vehicle perspective because you know, ultimately though it's going to boil down to the trust of the backer and what they can prove. If you just look at the Bitcoin standard as where everything ends in terms of perfection, it would have to be transparent on chain verified funds for it to mean anything. At the end of the day we're moving there and all these things have unintended consequences along the way. But yeah, that sounds like a recipe for you know, who the first people
Scott Melker
to push back were. They were like the crypto tokenization companies, not actually Apple and such. Here's the president of Securitize. If third parties can tokenize Apple or Amazon without the issuer at the table, there's no theoretical limit on how many wrappers of the same company exist at once. This could create a whole new level of market Fragmentation, it could leave investors less certain what their shares are actually worth at any moment.
Andrew
The.
Scott Melker
How, the.
Andrew
How the table turns. Table
Tillman
turns on your tables cut both ways, Andrew.
Andrew
Yeah, so here's the thing, right? So Securitized just did a deal with what, NASDAQ or something or the nyse, right? Yeah. So, you know, like three to six months ago, they're like, all right, we got the inside scoop on tokenization. We, it's gonna all run through us. Oops, wait a minute. Everybody can do it. Stop, wait. We, we want to be the ones that do it. So yeah, listen, this, this stuff is moving faster than anybody expected. Which by the way, if that's happening at the sec, then that's being driven by the companies that want to trade all this stuff and want to make it uniquely available to their, to their clients. Right? So think of it this way. How do you make E Trade more profitable and a. In a better type of company that Morgan Stanley bought several years ago, if you then put stuff on E Trade that more people are trading and more people are interested in as opposed to. Well, we just bought E Trade because they've got deposits and like 42 million customers sitting there. So we're just going to use those customers and bring the ones that we actually like over to Morgan Growth strategy. Yeah. Right. So, so, so now these, these quote unquote, you know, crypto slash online platforms become much more valuable because you're able to trade tokenized versions of everything. And all the tokenized versions will be happening on natively, let's call it online, quote unquote. Platforms like the Robinhoods and Coinbases of the world, they'll be happening there first because legacy organizations always take forever to get to stuff. So yeah, this stuff is going to happen quickly. Jeff park had a really good post on it yesterday talking about tokenized trading and the pace at which it will grow. And he also talked about the fact that, that it's going to, it's going to be a really big deal and it has the, the, the possibility of sort of creating another GameStop Robin Hood type of moment, except it'll be a little bit more pure. And the idea of universal basic income can be kind of connected or associated with trading. So yeah, it's going to be a big deal. It's going to happen fast. If the SEC is getting in front of this, this quickly, that just means that the biggest of big boys want it to happen because there's meaningful revenue streams attached to it.
Tillman
Think about how much liquidity is going to be needed to fill all these markets. So then you have any volume at all, the amount of cash we're going to need to print. If you have now the ability to trade basically anything 247 globally. I mean, the. I, as you were talking, Andrew, I thought to myself, well, I mean, if someone personally andor collectively, like a hedge fund, owns a large portion of a basket of equities and they want to tokenize that hedge fund access, why wouldn't they at this point? I mean, they have, they have a very unique product that can be packaged and sold to the masses at scale with no management over, you know, overhead or management constraints or scalable issues. So there's, there's just. All this is going to redefine the landscape from an issuance perspective, from a collateral perspective. You know, if you're. This also begs the question. Let's say I'm an issuer, like I'm Michael Saylor.
Scott Melker
No, you're not.
Tillman
If I can back my issuance of any token with Bitcoin. Right. Well, then I can basically issue any token I can be.
Scott Melker
He's pounding like starting with my interview with him two weeks ago, he's like fully supporting yield tokens backed by STRC and defi.
Andrew
Like the biggest.
Tillman
I wonder why maybe ever. Yeah, this is, this is an expansion of markets like we've never seen in the history of man. And if we then extrapolate again, how much liquidity is going to be needed to feed those markets. This is a recipe for printer through the rest of our lives, guys.
Scott Melker
Go ahead, Andrew.
Andrew
Yeah, you can bet that in the halls and conference rooms of Bitwise, they're, they're having the conversation of when do we announce the tokenization of our ETFs, not if, when. And you know, let's make sure we're first because
Tillman
over there about vaults, Andrew. The vaults are basically the tokenization of ETFs. All that can flow in and out on, you know, AI, agent management.
Andrew
Yeah. So it's, it's all gonna happen. It's just a question of how quickly and when. Which, by the way, that is as easy a transition as there's ever been to large public. So when everything is trading 24 7, what are you gonna do? Like, like you, you have to have the ability to have, you know, agentic, automated. Have to, yeah, you, you, you have to, you have to have automation associated with your will. What it is, what, what do you want to get accomplished, by the way? Quite helpful to be able to talk to somebody about what it is you Want to get accomplished and then have tools that automate what it is that you want to get accomplished 24. 7, because 24. 7 is happening. I'd be shocked if less than 50% of everything that trades is quote, unquote tokenized in 24. 7. If it's 18 months from now, if it's less than 50%, I would be shocked. Right. So it'll probably be more than that 24 months from now. It basically be everything. So how are you going to handle that? What are you going to do? You have to have some level of automation that you trust and that you're comfortable with, and also a company that you can talk to about it, people that you can talk to about it. And man, we're on the cutting edge of that. It's.
Tillman
And there's no black boxes that you cannot shine a flashlight into. You will understand exactly why trades are taking place because you're defining the rules by which they are taking place. And so it's a freedom of the fear of the unknown, if you will, because leaving an AI agent to make just kind of unencumbered decisions on your behalf in the market, we're not there. I'm just telling you, we're not even close. And even when you get to that point, then you just have a war of robots. Basically. Basically in the market, which we sort of do now with the market makers and with the liquidity providers, so long and short of it is, to Andrew's point, everything is going 24 7. But right now, crypto is 24 7. And there is a huge opportunity in the yield that can be farmed from the volatility of crypto. And I think that that's kind of been the headline this year thus far, which is like, how do you harness the volatility of these markets? And I think that's one of the major drivers of why they're tokenizing equities. Because the volatility increases when you spread the hours out the bottom line. And you get a lot more opportunity for people to participate that otherwise wouldn't participate, which draws new liquidity into those markets. So this is something that, yes, we're on the bleeding edge of it. Better to be lucky than good. We did not see five years ago when we started this endeavor that tokenized equities were going to be a part of the equation. But the great news is we've got an incredible head start and we know a lot about the pitfalls of executing through automation, and we've been able to impart that wisdom to our customers and create 25,000 happy customers over the last 18 months. So we're incredibly excited about the future. We think we're on the bleeding edge of it, but we have a head start and we're excited about sharing that head start with you because it does lend itself to a level of empowerment and lets you participate in something that I think everybody knows exists and they know they want to participate, but they either don't have the time, they don't have people to talk to, to walk them through it, or they're afraid of what the potential, you know, outcomes could be. So this is a way to skip all that and really jump in with both feet in a way that you're going to, you're going to love and enjoy the outcome.
Scott Melker
What do you think was going on in Andrew's house? They needed to turn off his camera and his mic.
Tillman
Listen, he has some young children. So if I, if I had to guess, it's, you know, wailing, gnashing of teeth. You know, it's better than that one interview. Have you seen on YouTube where the dragging the kid out by the leg,
Scott Melker
you know, naked kid in the back. Yeah.
Andrew
It's good. By the way, per, per volatility, their volatility sideways to the upside can be harvested for good. And our customers have been doing that by crazy. But by the way, you know, harvesting volatility to the downside can be to your good too with our tax loss harvesting tools that, that, that we've created. So again, you, you think to yourself, if you're able to outperform, buy and hold, you know, like negative 9% for Bitcoin and then plus 21% with yield and price appreciation. So it's a 30% difference. But if you're also harvesting tax loss, yield, let's call it to the downside, and that gives you another 20%.
Tillman
It's about time Saylor announced that he can sell some bitcoin because he's missing out on those two things in, in enormous fashion by, by having this buy and hold type mentality. You know, volatility exists for a reason why I tell people this analogy all the time. Scott says, yeah, we can all agree that water is a necessity of life. We can all agree that in Colorado we got no water this year. We can all agree that Colorado allows you by law, I think two rain barrels, 55 gallon drums. It, it's raining, last 24 hours, it's rained. We could have easily filled up the barrels. But 90% of people don't have catch basins in place. 90% of the people don't have those barrels in place. And yet they'll complain about not having water rights to water their garden this whole summer. And so the question is, are you going to be prepared when the event takes place? And so volatility exists, just like rain exists. And it's gonna rain When? Whenever it rains. The volatility happens whenever it happens. No one can tell you exactly when it's gonna rain. No one can predict over the next 90 days how many inches it's gonna rain. All of these are unknowns. But we do know that if you put the system in place and it rains, you catch the water. And so it's just that simple. It's like put automation in place that allows you to catch volatility when it happens, and you define what those rules are. But it. It does happen. And so don't complain about, you know, bitcoin being a pet rock or going down, because there's a lot of opportunity in that. Down is the point. There's a lot of opportunity in the job. And as things get tokenized, that's going to exist on every front. And so it's, it's a, it's an endless field of opportunity.
Andrew
Well, and, and here's the other thing, too. With our products, it's not just a binary volatility. And we hand you this thing and you stick it to your account, and then if the volatility matches what the thing you've stuck to your account works, then it works. No, you can tighten that volatility all you want. Right? If, if, if it's selling may and go away as there's not a whole lot to happen with bitcoin. Well, then we'll just hand you another one and then another one, and then another one and then another one that's going to match the tightness of that volume volatility and even grab the smallness of it and work it to your advantage. So you can be running six different versions of volatility opportunity strategies with Arch Public, and some of them are on the high end and some of them are on the low end. But, but by the way, all of them are quote, unquote catch basins. And maybe you're just catching a little bit, or maybe you're catching a lot, but you're catching something almost all the time.
Tillman
Scott brought up a great point earlier in the show about his 12 hour being up.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Tillman
And that's an example of one catch basin that was effective in catching that volatility.
Scott Melker
The exact top by the way of all this entire like above 82 or something.
Andrew
Yeah, right, right.
Tillman
So it wasn't the exact top on any other time frame and that's why it didn't trigger on your parameters on it. So the point is, is that if you didn' not only the automation in place, but the automation covering all of the time frames that you want to cover to harvest that volatility, then you miss that trade is the point. You're not there for it. And if you are, you're just luckily there for it. You know, you, you pulled up to your computer and you happen to open your screen and you happen to make a manual trade in, you know, emotional fashion, and it ended up right, which is some of the worst trading that you can do. You know, I tell my sons and my daughter all the time, like, having confirmation bias and making bad decisions with good outcomes can lead to a life of bad decisions. Right. So you need to be real careful about, you know, confirming data points when there's too few sample, you know, sample size to confirm against. And so don't, don't take one good trade and go, I'm a good trader. And then start leveraging up in terms of size and position. Take a very prudent approach about long term, like we've been talking about earlier. It's like, you know, how do you manage volatility? Will you manage it through incremental purchases? Well, incremental purchases are by definition inconvenient. Well, automation, it doesn't make it inconvenient. In fact, you can take all that inconvenience out of it and spread those purchases out as far apart as you want them spread out and as small of an increments as you want them, with no additional management burden. And so that therein lies the benefit of, like, if you ask a mathematician who has, you know, all the experience in the world that we don't in math, and you go, how do you manage volatility? We'll say in dollar cost average. That is the way you do it. Well, how do you dollar cost average and when do you dollar cost average? Well, that's where automation comes in and really shines in a way that humans can't.
Andrew
You know, listen, the quote there about a lifetime of poor decisions felt a little personal. Okay, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna ignore it here in the podcast. Maybe we can talk about it later.
Scott Melker
All right, let's air it out here.
Andrew
Felt a little bit personal. Okay. All right. Oh, we have too much fun on these shows. I gotta tell you, we really listen there, there is, there is, I, I made this claim I think last week. At some point if, if you're not engaging in these tools, you're gonna fall behind and you're gonna fall behind faster than you did in previous sort of cycle changing moments like of life, right? So if you're in your late 30s, 40s, 50s and you kind of giggle at your parents trying to out figure, figure out how to use an iPad, you're going to be that guy or girl over the next three to five years using tools that automate parts of your, your life and certainly the financial part of your life. Because if you think about it, even if you've got, you know, 7, 10, 12 million long at Morgan Stanley and you're going to have you know, your quarterly reviews or whatever, even those people have to figure out how to do this stuff on your behalf in some way, shape or form very, very quickly. Because I'm telling you right now, Morgan Stanley isn't going to double their personnel when everything is trading 24 7. There's no chance they're doing that. So they've got to come up with meaningful solutions that are quote unquote agentic automated carrying out what it is that you're trying to get done with your portfolio on any given given day. So you've got to engage, you just have to engage and you want to engage in a place where you know, it's kind of like the Apple Store. You go in there, you what do I want? What do I even know what I want? What, how should I go about this? You know, Arch public has a quote unquote genius bar. We've got a service division, we've got a bunch of people, people that are here to just work with you. Anytime you have a question and you're dealing with a human, you're having like
Scott Melker
how, how is this thing selling? Is it broken?
Andrew
Like.
Scott Melker
No, no, actually you're just doing great.
Andrew
Yeah.
Scott Melker
I would just like you to know that there's somebody here who says we're blocking his comments and they don't want him to tell the truth about stuff.
Andrew
Jason.
Scott Melker
Manu, literally right there, I'm reading them.
Andrew
Yeah, yeah, we're reading.
Scott Melker
I don't, I don't. Guys. The truth about the four year cycle. It's like the aliens.
Tillman
Yeah, about a four year cycle.
Scott Melker
Jason Mon 66 is being stifled by the Melker government operation. Well listen, comments, but sometimes I just look and I go, what's wrong with that guy?
Tillman
I agree with him. The four year cycle's dead. I mean, I don't think that.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think he was saying that the four year cycle is everything.
Andrew
Yeah. Anybody that has a, A, a, some digits at the end of their, their, their name, their handle. Yeah, probably, you know, it is.
Scott Melker
Yeah. In your basement.
Andrew
Yeah. He's finally gone, by the way.
Scott Melker
Andrew. I'm commenting.
Andrew
He's gone.
Scott Melker
I reduced myself to commenting in the YouTube comments.
Tillman
Andrew's the noise in the basement.
Andrew
Very mad. That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Scott Melker
They won't talk about it because they know it's true. Dude, I don't even know what we're talking about at all. Yeah, you think that. I just wanted to prove that. You said we were like stifling your comments or something and they're right here.
Andrew
We know it's true, Jason. Start your own.
Tillman
Listen, I don't mind addressing it from stage if you will. Listen, the four year cycle was predicated on mining miners. And you know, if you can prove to me that miners control enough supply that the selling pressure is outstripped the other inflows, then I would, I'll agree with you wholeheartedly that the miners still possess enough power to move markets and to control the price of bitcoin. And four years, your cycle is still valid. I just think that we've built so many ways that money can flow into bitcoin and the only way money can flow out of bitcoin is through bitcoin being sold. And the four year cycle was a byproduct of the amount of supply that was being distributed to the miners for their efforts. And that's gotten halved every year. If you're aware of the halving or that term, it's literally a having of rewards. Every four year cycle they cut the rewards in half. And so it's not a coincidence that there was a four year cycle because your compensation got cut in half every four years.
Scott Melker
And it's election cycle, liquidity cycle, business cycle. On the same point, guys, I just, I just shared the secret that Jason. Yeah, belt is an awesome word though. He said spelt. You know in America we do spelled but I know that spelt is correct. But I just think of it as like a kind of grain, like planting spelled.
Andrew
That's kind of the point about not responding to comments is generally speaking the rabbit hole that you go down is, is quite interesting.
Scott Melker
We found a new narrative, new narrative just showed up.
Andrew
Yeah, you're going all in video a few days ago.
Scott Melker
You're going all in. You don't think that's Going to get people wrecked? No, because if it does, it gets me wrecked.
Andrew
Erect again. These narratives associated with, by the way, this.
Scott Melker
Erect. I said erect.
Andrew
Anytime, Anytime. Bitcoin goes down by like 3%, 4%, 2 and a half percent. Now just, man, the trolls come out, right? It really is something to watch. And, and all you really have to do is just post a picture of like Larry Fink's face. You're like, do you really guys think that, that this guy's put a hundred billion dollars of his clients money into, into his Bitcoin ETFs, the best product they've ever done and he's here to just get these people smashed? Like I don't know, maybe so, but
Tillman
smashed from 3% to 1 1/2% isn't going to change their lifestyle. And that. So the, the allocation percentage as a percentage of your net worth is the answer to your, your question. Like if you have heartburn about being invested in bitcoin, you've got too much invested.
Scott Melker
There's a bunch of pictures of Larry just while we're talking.
Andrew
Yeah, I like the finger one. I'm gonna grab that one. I like that
Scott Melker
mirror, right?
Andrew
Yeah, that's going to be used on a lot.
Scott Melker
This one's kind of, this one's kind of questionable.
Andrew
Yeah, that's problematic. Give that one erased from the Internet.
Scott Melker
Yeah.
Tillman
Who knows how many of these are
Scott Melker
AI generated now These are Getty images. I went straight to the source, the real thing. They're watermarked and everything.
Andrew
Again, you know, you know, I don't want to overplay it, but BlackRock is, nobody's pounding the table harder on tokenization than BlackRock is. And then you also go to Morgan Stanley, who for all intents and purposes is the gold standard in wealth management. They're pounding the table on crypto and tokenization. I mean they've gotten really loud in the last three months. So they. Listen, this is, this is not difficult to, to unpack. This is a massive, massive revenue opportunity for these companies. Right. 99 of all of their other, other products are going to be cheaper than what they're going to be able to charge for tokenization products, crypto products, all of those things. So it just kind of is what it is, honestly.
Tillman
I mean the more you look at it, the liquidity has to flow and liquidity is needed in all of these markets. And so if BlackRock is going to tokenize everything, they're going to fill that everything with liquidity. And you know, you kind of look at the unholy alliance between the government and the big banks and you kind of scratch your head as to how that, you know, we know that when they turn on the printing press, the money flows through the banks to us. Well, if the banks have all these new markets that they're able to create literally out of thin air and tokenize anything, the amount of liquidity that could be coming, I mean, I, I, it just, I, I don't think it can be overestimated, honestly. I, I think it's such a big chasm of investment need and such a sharp incline of technological growth in such a short period of time. We're going to answer the bell. Why? Well, because we have the printing press. That's the only reason why we have it. It is because we answer the bell in a continued way in filling that void and living into the destiny of the innovation that then makes the, you know, inflation curve look acceptable. I, I'm excited. I think we're going to get a big, a lot of more money in circulation.
Andrew
Should we talk about the AMA that we're doing with Mr. Melker tomorrow?
Scott Melker
No, because I want to know why he'll be saying he's going all in. Doesn't he know that the one year bear market lasts a year? Is he really buying before the end of the one year bear market? Hasn't he been through this before? Doesn't he know the bear market lasts a year? Why is he saying he's going in all six months early? Oh, my crystal ball broke.
Andrew
Yeah.
Tillman
Bingo. If you're trying to time the market, man, you, you, you deceived yourself.
Scott Melker
I might be doing all the time with Arch Public. We can talk about it on an AMA tomorrow. It's right here. It's in the description. Yeah.
Andrew
So we're going to be doing an ask me anything with all three of us for our.
Scott Melker
Please join us, Jason.
Andrew
So, so we do so once in a while we'll open these up to the public. If you're a concierge client, you get access every week to a zoom call like this where we talk about all things and everything. I mean heck, we, we treat it like a community. So we talk about our personal lives, things we like to do, do fun places. We've been additional alpha to markets that are unattached to Arch Public and Arch Public stuff. And it also gives you an opportunity to talk to people on our staff. It's just a direct connection to the people that have built Arch Public and who are passionate about it and then also the community inside of Arch Public who are really passionate about what we do and how we do it and have been using our products for a very, very long time. So you're able to make connections in that way.
Tillman
You'll be blown away with the captains of industry that are our customers. I mean it's, I don't want to divulge any information, but these, these folks are seasoned and they are exceptional people. And we've just gotten, as we've gotten larger from a customer base perspective, it's become clear to us that the community that we've built is something really special. And we're leaning into that. We're doing more live events. We had this event up in New York where we, all three of us were up, you know, a couple months ago. We had 130 plus people fly in for the event and stay there and fellowship with us. And so it's just, it's turned into something that is so enjoyable and so fruitful from a relationship perspective and from a thought perspective.
Scott Melker
And
Tillman
we're going to really try to do more of that on a consistent basis.
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's going to be awesome. I thought originally it was only for the concierge folks, but it's for the whole world.
Tillman
Well, we've been having them for the concierge folks and it's been such a success that now we're brought into the effort.
Andrew
It's for the whole world. So Jason 6645 out of his name.
Scott Melker
You're just proving that he's right. His theory on the cycles. My title was I'm actually all in on bitcoin. Why? I'm actually all on bitcoin. I didn't say why. I'm going all in at precisely $77,000 today on Bitcoin. It's so dumb it makes my brain hurt.
Tillman
You might be arguing with a bot. Honestly,
Andrew
One has to wonder. One has to wonder. Who spends their times on YouTube comments
Scott Melker
arguing something we will not discuss. We won't discuss it. We won't. We're afraid the one year bear market. Bear markets are usually a lot longer than a year for the honest.
Andrew
Yeah. If you, if you would have encouraged people to buy six months early during every quote unquote cycle, people would have made a lot of money in bitcoin.
Tillman
We let the show off. Talking about a trigger event on a 12 hour candle where you sold bitcoin. So the volatility there guys, you buy and sell all the time. Again, it's called trading.
Scott Melker
Imagine thinking that, like telling people to like zoom out and buy bitcoin for a few decades is like getting them wrecked because my timing might be off by three months. I also bought Bitcoin at 1800 doll dollars when I decided I was going to be effectively all in. Right. I mean all in might be the only hyperbole you can give me because yes, I like own a house and stuff. I didn't sell my kid for a bitcoin. I still have them. So I guess I'm not all in. You're not a max on my kidneys. I didn't go full sailor.
Tillman
That's right. You're not in a van by the river so you know, you're not a real maxi.
Scott Melker
Living in my bitcoin by the river in the van.
Andrew
Yeah,
Scott Melker
I'm having a great time. So wait, there's that one at 1pm Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday 520 just to be very clear. Eastern standard. And the link is in the description for you to join this.
Andrew
Yep.
Scott Melker
So you can join it and then on this AMA you can ask me why I'm not running the tax harvesting strategy yet.
Andrew
But you will. Is it something I said but you will be.
Scott Melker
Thank you. Hit me up, you know, harvest some of them taxes. I should have harvested them down at like 60 man. I would have been. And that was before you had it. I thought about it and then I squirrel that was running by or something.
Andrew
Well that's kind of the point of having tax loss harvesting algorithmic tools running all the time. What you just said. Because I thought about it but I'm a human and then I forgot and I didn't do it. Right. So this is the never forget about it type of thing. Right.
Tillman
I don't. Yeah, it's. Automation makes life a lot easier. A lot easier in a lot of ways. You know, I don't set my alarm every night in my house. It sets itself at a specific time. Like I don't turns itself off. You know, you don't have to manually push all the buttons of your life anymore. And the more we can remove for you, the better trading ultimately. Especially if you're trying to dollar cost average into a healthy cost curve. It requires a lot of patience, a lot of time commitment, a lot of math and a lot of availability. All of those resources are the most scarce in life. So why not do it automatically? So I guess the point.
Andrew
Yeah.
Scott Melker
Arch public. Should we tell them to sign up? Yeah, just come to the webinar. It's gonna be fun. We're gonna like this. But where you guys get to participate. Although I would say Today that you guys have participated for the first time maybe in history. And the one other person who said I was stifling their comments. That was funny.
Andrew
No, it is. These are actually a lot of fun because people get their questions. Answers immediately, either through this type of engagement or, you know, we. We type out answers in real time. Right. As a reply to their questions. So people love it. We've gotten incredible feedback from it, and people get to ask us anything, and we're happy to answer as transparently as. As we can.
Scott Melker
When Americans go broke, bitcoin won't matter. Used AR15 matter.
Andrew
We've got some interesting folks watching this show.
Scott Melker
The meme of the little Asian girl. Why not both?
Andrew
Yeah.
Scott Melker
Wow.
Andrew
Fun show, guys.
Scott Melker
Fun show for your business cycle. Didn't I say that earlier?
Tillman
Jesus
Scott Melker
Lord, give me the strength today. Yeah. It seems that you're claiming that arch publics can fix Stupid,
Andrew
Stupid.
Scott Melker
God. 9:55. How did 55 minutes just go by? That was great.
Andrew
The comments have gone full circle. They have gone full circle. Now when commenters are coming on the comments and the commenters in the comments, you know, that means turned on the tables. Been a great show.
Scott Melker
Yeah, that's right, guys. Jesse's still going.
Andrew
I'm starting.
Scott Melker
Guys like Jason get five minutes of screen time.
Andrew
Well done, Luca. Well done.
Scott Melker
All right, guys, I'm gonna get out of here before I say something stupid. Get fired from all my jobs.
Andrew
Good.
Scott Melker
Real. I've enjoyed it. We'll see Everybody tomorrow at 1. That link isn't seriously join. And the link is in the description for one o' clock tomorrow. It's right down there, right below. Do the thing. Jason, you're my favorite man.
Tillman
Yeah, that's dope.
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Tillman, Andrew
Date: May 19, 2026
In this insightful and banter-filled episode, Scott Melker is joined by Tillman and Andrew to break down the big moves and underlying currents in today’s crypto, macroeconomic, and financial markets. The team dives into recent $1B Bitcoin ETF outflows, bond market disruptions, passive investor anxieties, and the looming expansion of asset tokenization. The episode covers not only today's challenges, but also looks ahead at the consequences for market structure, liquidity, and the role of AI and automation in investing. Listeners can expect a fast-paced discussion punctuated by wit, expertise, and practical wisdom about riding out both literal and figurative market volatility.
Timestamps: 00:00–03:30
Timestamps: 03:30–07:00
Timestamps: 07:00–09:45
Timestamps: 11:01–13:34
Timestamps: 13:46–18:02
Timestamps: 18:02–23:47
Timestamps: 23:47–27:38
Timestamps: 27:38–36:32; 38:58–36:32
Timestamps: 39:15–43:14
Timestamps: 44:05–46:17
For more, join the upcoming Arch Public AMA with Scott, Tillman, and Andrew. Details in the podcast description!