Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin BOTTOM In As Rate-Cut Odds Soar? Here's What's Next..."

The Wolf Of All Streets | Host: Scott Melker | Macro Monday w/ James, Dave & Mike | November 24, 2025

Episode Overview

Scott Melker hosts a deeply analytical Macro Monday roundtable focusing on the intersection of Bitcoin price action, Federal Reserve rate-cut odds, liquidity cycles, and macroeconomic themes. Guests James, Dave, and Mike unpack significant topics including the evolving Bitcoin/gold relationship, the end of traditional four-year Bitcoin cycles, the importance of central bank policy, liquidity drainage, and the drama surrounding MicroStrategy and JP Morgan. The team debates whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed, what fiscal and monetary policy mean for markets ahead, and how new macro trends are shaping investment narratives.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fed Rate-Cut Odds and Market Sentiment

[00:00 - 04:07]

• Scott introduces the surge in odds for a Fed rate cut in December, shifting rapidly from 35% to over 70%.
• Mike recaps Bloomberg’s macro outlook:
  • Economists expect slightly positive retail sales.
  • Inventories are well-stocked for holidays.
  • Fed officials like John Williams and Chris Waller are now more open to a rate cut.
  • The Beige Book signals that broad flat or declining growth/employment would tip the balance toward a cut.
  • Michael Casper (equity strategist) says it's "not a bubble"—but comparisons to the dot-com era make this sound uncomfortable.
  • Ira Jersey (fixed income strategist) sees Fed ultimately cutting, but fair value of 10-year at 4%; expects more cuts than currently priced in.
• Mike warns commodities are behaving historically: gold up, oil down—mirroring rare past patterns.
• Key thesis: "If Bitcoin goes lower, the stock market goes lower, crude oil goes lower." (Mike, [03:40])

2. The Bitcoin-Gold Relationship—Conventional Logic Flipped

[04:07 - 06:58]

• Scott: Challenges the “Bitcoin will follow gold up” consensus; Mike says Bitcoin may lead gold and risk assets down due to risk-off behavior and liquidity shortages.
• Dave: Holds a contrarian view; argues the Bitcoin bull market "has not started yet" ([05:48]):
  • The Trump "bump" was a one-time revaluation after strategic asset designation.
  • Four-year cycle narratives are dead—ETF launch broke the mold ([06:58]).
  • Bitcoin remains a hard money story, but no true bull market momentum in 2025 yet.

3. Rethinking Bitcoin’s Cycle & The Hashrate Narrative

[06:58 - 14:44]

• Dave: Emphasizes the decoupling of hash rate from price. Hash rate investment (blue line) far outpaces Bitcoin price (black line)—the most extended it has ever been ([09:05]):
  • When this gap emerges historically, either a miner capitulation follows, or price rockets up to close the gap.
  • "This is the time to be buying, not selling." (Dave, [11:50])
  • Short-term, however, heavy liquidity drain, forced selling, and deleveraging.
• Macro context: Corporate profits at all-time highs, further polarizing the K-shaped economy.

4. The End of the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

[14:44 - 18:03]

• James: Declares the Bitcoin four-year cycle "absolutely dead" ([14:48]):
  • Halving and political cycles both disrupted.
  • Introduction of ETFs and political support "blew the four-year cycle up completely." ([15:42])
  • Liquidity cycles now set the tone; Bitcoin is barometer of global liquidity.
  • "Bitcoin again is the best liquidity barometer in the world." (James, [15:50])
• Tightened liquidity from major central banks and no clear sign of easing yet.

5. Fed Signaling, Liquidity, and Treasury Mechanisms

[18:03 - 24:16]

• James: The game is now about rolling over $500B weekly in Treasury bills.
• Arguments over whether central bank moves are "QE" or "not QE"—the label doesn't matter, it’s about net liquidity injections.
• Fiscal dominance is the dominant market driver; Main Street and Wall Street at odds over benefits.

6. Political Bifurcation, Crypto, and Structural Change

[24:16 - 31:13]

• Mike: Fed predictions are "schizophrenic." Politicization hampers clear monetary policy ([24:16]).
  • "If you’re injecting liquidity into the system, that’s what we’re talking about." (James, [18:18])
  • Charts suggest possible risk-off dominoes if volatility rises, with Bitcoin leading.
  • New political reality: Buying crypto is now seen as a political act.
  • "Now they have to be at their meetings, thinking if we’re buying anything in cryptos, we’re supporting the Trump administration." (Mike, [27:20])
• Dave: Investing on political/social beliefs is a losing strategy. Grift & meme coins like TrumpCoin are evidence bull market was “doomed” when grift set in.

7. Global Gold-Demand Shift and Implications for Bitcoin

[31:13 - 32:23]

• Foreign governments now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for structural, not cyclical, reasons.
• "It’s a one-way street...It’s a structural change and you have to adjust based off of that." (Dave, [31:21])
• Gold most likely to stabilize or appreciate; Bitcoin could see further drawdown if risk-off is triggered but remains structurally bullish unless "broken."

8. The Looming Fed Transition and Election-Year Dynamics

[32:23 - 36:00]

• Dave: Powell may become a “lame duck” by spring; question is whether he takes a final shot at Trump or plays for legacy.
• Debate over whether rate cuts truly fuel inflation; academic dispute continues.
• "Cutting interest rates...could easily cause consumer inflation IF in fact supplies are constrained, but it’s not at all clear." (Dave, [33:58])

9. Banking System, QE & Treasury General Account (TGA) Mechanics

[36:00 - 39:38]

• U.S. banking reserves low enough to absorb significant injections if needed.
• James: They’ll wait for a trigger event before aggressive QE, “unless there’s a reason, unless there’s some sort of credit event they need to [respond to].” ([36:55])

10. Stablecoins, Fiscal Dominance & the JP Morgan/MicroStrategy Drama

[39:38 - 52:25]

• Stablecoin regulation means unprecedented Treasury funding flexibility; nothing stops deficit spending under fiscal dominance.
• "Nothing’s going to stop it." (James, citing Lyn Alden’s view [39:25])
• MicroStrategy/JP Morgan Saga:
  • Rumors of manipulation as JP Morgan adjusts margin requirements, debanks Strike and Jack Mallers, sparking Operation Checkpoint 2.0 theories.
  • Scott: Theorizing that margin changes may be mechanical, not manipulative, but if rules are deviated, "there’s smoke and might be fire." ([49:00])
  • MSCI index exclusion fears—$9B of passive money at risk, but Dave says S&P and NASDAQ have more meaningful impacts ([52:25]).

11. MicroStrategy’s Position and Market Trading Lessons

[52:25 - 57:34]

• Dave: MicroStrategy is a “bitcoin proxy” only as far as narrative, real dynamics depend on index inclusion/exclusion and accounting rules.
• Saylor’s strategy: "Bitcoin just has to go up 1.5% for the next 100 years for us to pay out dividends." ([55:30])
• Mike: At current discounts, MicroStrategy is a "screaming buy" for delta-neutral traders; "Just don’t get married to longs." ([56:43])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike on Risk: “If bitcoin goes lower, the stock market goes lower, crude oil goes lower ... My stuff’s kind of trickling off.” ([03:40])
• Dave on Cycles: "The biggest, this bitcoin bull market has not started yet." ([05:48])
• James on Liquidity: "Bitcoin again is the best liquidity barometer, global liquidity barometer in the world." ([15:50])
• Dave (on narrative): "We make up narratives in order to justify what happened in the short term price. So the price moves and people create narratives that don’t exist." ([13:37])
• James on Cycles: "Four year cycle is, is absolutely dead. I, I just, I can’t get to a spot where we have a four year cycle still intact." ([14:48])
• Mike on politics: "Now they have to be at their meetings, thinking ... if we’re buying anything in cryptos, we’re supporting the Trump administration." ([27:20])
• Dave on investment strategies: “When one invests based on political beliefs or, or social beliefs, one loses money. You basically, you do better taking your pile of $1 bills and making a bonfire out of it than investing that way.” ([27:53])
• Dave on index rules: “The last thing they want to do is ... remove something that a year later you have to put back in at a higher price. It makes you look stupid. And index committees aren’t risk takers.” ([54:38])
• Mike on trading: “It’s about trading. It’s a great environment to trade. Just don’t get married to longs anymore.” ([56:43])
• Scott on MicroStrategy: “MicroStrategy is screaming buy right now ... we are at the 'it’s going to zero' point in the narrative. Yeah, that’s a buy." ([57:34])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Rate Cut and Bitcoin as Barometer: [00:00 - 04:07]
• Bitcoin/Gold Relationship, Cycle Disruption: [04:07 - 14:44]
• End of the Four-Year Cycle: [14:44 - 18:03]
• Liquidity, QE, and Fiscal Dominance: [18:03 - 24:16]
• Crypto & Politics: [24:16 - 31:13]
• Gold, Central Banks & Macro Risks: [31:13 - 36:00]
• Fed Politics & Inflation Debate: [36:00 - 39:38]
• Stablecoins, JP Morgan, MicroStrategy: [39:38 - 57:34]
• Wrap up, Trading Strategies: [57:34 - End]

Tone & Takeaways

• The conversation is sharp, occasionally combative but always analytical, with a deep skepticism of simplistic market narratives or knee-jerk macro takes.
• The panel warns against being wedded to traditional cycles or narratives—both in crypto and TradFi. Instead, stay nimble, prioritize liquidity signals, and don’t let politics cloud investment.
• For Bitcoin, the consensus: local bottom likely in but risk remains high; everything pivots on macro liquidity, with any true recovery dependent on central bank signaling and liquidity provision.
• Traders should contemplate contrarian setups—MicroStrategy’s deep discount is flagged, but only as a trading opportunity, not a blind long-term bet.

In Short

Bitcoin is at a pivotal, macro-driven juncture. The old cycles are dead; risk and reward are driven by global liquidity, politics, and fast-changing structural forces. Stay objective, stay flexible, and—above all—don’t get married to narratives.