Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets - "Bitcoin BOTTOMS As Gold TOPS! Is A Capital Rotation Underway?"

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, James Lavish
Date: October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This "Macro Monday" episode dives into the possible inflection point between Bitcoin and gold in global markets—addressing the theory that Bitcoin may be bottoming as gold tops. Scott Melker is joined by macro and market strategy heavyweights Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and James Lavish. The group explores macroeconomic trends, liquidity, capital rotation, and the implications of recent market action for gold, Bitcoin, equities, and the broader crypto landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold’s Surge, Bitcoin’s Bottom, and the Macro Backdrop

• Observation: Gold is hitting new highs, while Bitcoin seems to have stabilized at a bottom.
• Mike McGlone highlights the stretch in market narratives, pointing out that macro conversations are centering on gold across different strategists for the first time, suggesting possible excess.
  • Quote: “Everybody’s mentioned gold. This is probably the first time in a morning that’s ever happened...probably a sign of excessiveness.” (02:00, Mike McGlone)
• Gold/Crude Dynamic: Gold’s up 65% YTD, crude down 20%. “The 84% disparity is the greatest in history...last was about 60% in 2008.” (04:41, Mike McGlone)
• Caution: Crude oil appears in a bear market; natural gas and other risk assets may follow.
• Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio: Recently hovering at 25, largely trendless, tracking alongside the 10-year yield at ~4%.
  • Quote: “The bitcoin to gold ratio hovering at 25...same chart for two years now.” (05:12, Mike McGlone)

2. Is Gold Topping? Is Bitcoin Set for Rotation?

• Consensus or Contrarian? While some warn gold is overheated and capital might rotate into alternatives like Bitcoin, the group is split.
• Dave Weisberger’s Contrarian View: Gold is not topped yet, citing hot retail money via CFDs and the explosion of leveraged gold and silver trading—especially outside traditional ETFs.
  • Quote: “Thousands upon thousands of people trading gold like a meme...Don’t expect it to top as a financial asset until that crowd doesn’t think it’s hot money anymore.” (07:36, Dave Weisberger)
• Central Bank Flows: Non-G7 countries (notably China) likely accumulating both gold and possibly Bitcoin for leverage in global finance.

3. Crypto Market Sentiment: Skepticism, “Influencers,” and Liquidity

• Crypto Influencers Skepticism: Weisberger denounces the fickleness—and influence—of crypto personalities on market sentiment.
  • Quote: “If you’re following these crypto influencers, you really have to have your head examined...Bitcoin is still in a distribution phase, full stop.” (10:07, Dave Weisberger)
• Market Structure: Bitcoin remains range bound, with low funding rates on both BTC and ETH, indicating low “hot money” and speculative flows.
  • Quote: “It’s not going hyperbolically lower. It’s not going hyperbolically higher… until there’s catalysts.” (10:54, Dave Weisberger)
• Potential for Capital Rotation: Once gold tops, hot speculative capital could rotate into Bitcoin, sparking a “face-melting rally.” (11:28, Dave Weisberger)

4. Liquidity, Credit Markets, and Central Bank Action

• James Lavish unpacks liquidity structures: —Reverse repo facilities, T-bill rates, and the diminishing margin of “ample” bank reserves.
  • Quote: “The reverse repo has been drained...now it’s down to about $8 billion, which is essentially nothing.” (15:03, James Lavish)
• Stress in financial plumbing: Spreads between SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) and Fed Funds now widening, reminiscent of the 2019 silent crisis.
  • Quote: “It’s somewhere around DEFCON 2... significant enough you ought to be paying attention.” (18:14, James Lavish)
• Fed Pivot Watch: QT (Quantitative Tightening) likely ending soon—QE (Quantitative Easing) could resume at any sign of stress.
  • Quote: “I think they’re going to stop QT pretty imminently.” (20:38, James Lavish)
• Liquidity drives asset bull markets: Expansion of money supply and government deficits remain inflationary—fueling both the gold and Bitcoin bids.

5. Volatility, Correlations, and Asset Positioning

• Caution from McGlone: Gold’s peak is coinciding with low equity volatility, which is a warning sign for risk assets.
  • Quote: “When volatility is this low in the stock market, I say good luck...I think bitcoin will only go higher with gold as long as the stock market goes up.” (26:08, Mike McGlone)
• ETF Flows: Gold ETF holdings up 18% (in ounces), underscoring structural demand.

6. Global Debt, Money Supply, and Comparative Valuations

• Weisberger’s Charts:
  • Global money supply is 3x greater than at gold’s last big peak in 2011.
  • Rising debt and leverage require any asset comparison to factor in the denominator (money supply, debt).
  • Quote: “You can do math without denominators, but you’ll be wrong...Just very simple math says we should be north of 5,000 towards 6,000.” (28:23, Dave Weisberger)
• Macroeconomic Takeaway: Expansion of monetary aggregates likely means higher nominal asset prices for gold, Bitcoin, and risk assets in general.

7. Everything Rally or Crack-up Boom?

• "Liquidity Bull" Thesis: Liquidity will drive up all asset prices (stocks, Bitcoin, gold) but stocks will eventually be tethered to earnings—unlike gold/Bitcoin.
  • Quote: “If you’re a liquidity bull, that implies stocks, Bitcoin, gold...another everything rally.” (32:14, Scott Melker)
• Government Deficits: No realistic path to balanced budgets outside hyper-growth; expect continued deficits and money printing.
• Political Cycle: Policy focus is on keeping asset prices high—regardless of party.

8. Gold’s Monetary Premium vs. Other Metals (and the Crypto Analogy)

• Gold’s outperformance against platinum, which used to trade above gold, signals the unique “monetary premium” gold enjoys.
  • Quote: “Gold has massively outperformed platinum because platinum is not viewed as money...this is the monetary premium of gold.” (41:07, Dave Weisberger)
• Crypto Parallel: Bitcoin similarly distinguishes itself from altcoins via “monetary premium.” Most altcoins will fade away over time.
  • Quote: “Bitcoin is money and the rest are some kind of tech stock, sort of.” (44:19, Scott Melker)

9. Inflation, Asset Allocation, and Portfolio Caution

• Gold as Liquidity Barometer: The rising price of gold is a warning to risk-off; Treasuries and gold outperformed most assets YTD.
  • Quote: “Gold is the denominator for everything.” (59:24, Mike McGlone)

10. Societal & Political Implications

• Asset price inflation creates inequities: The relentless push of assets higher will further exacerbate wealth disparities, morphing the US economy towards a “feudal system.”
  • Quote: “It creates an economic feudal system...the only way out is through.” (54:01, Dave Weisberger)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Dave Weisberger, on retail gold trading:
  “There are thousands upon thousands of people trading gold like a meme and they’re trading it based on the debasement trade...don’t expect it to top until that crowd doesn’t think it’s hot money anymore.” (07:34)
• James Lavish, on bank reserves:
  "We're back at that spot where we're below 10% GDP [in reserves]..." (17:42)
• Mike McGlone:
  “When volatility is this low in the stock market, I say good luck.” (26:09)
• Dave Weisberger:
  “If you’re following these crypto influencers, you really have to have your head examined.” (10:10)
• Scott Melker:
  "Bitcoin is money and the rest are some kind of tech stock sort of." (44:20)
• James Lavish, on inflation and central banks:
  "They're using gold in lieu of treasuries because of this. Because they don't want to be holding something that's a negative real yield, and that's the real crux of all of it." (50:13)
• Scott Melker, on government policy and markets:
  “You’re literally betting against the United States government failing at the thing they view as their number one mandate...to think we’re going to go right now into a bear market.” (59:47)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Gold’s macro context and excessiveness: (02:00-05:21)
• Exploding retail leverage in gold, meme behaviour: (06:16-09:15)
• Bitcoin stuck in range, influencer culture: (10:07-12:30)
• Liquidity plumbing and looming financial stress: (13:45-22:00)
• SOFR/Fed Funds spread, 2019 replay risk: (17:42-20:20)
• Gold vs. platinum, monetary premium discussion: (40:35-44:16)
• Inflation, negative real yields, and central bank action: (49:08-51:53)
• Asset bubbles, societal outcomes: (53:13-54:56)
• Treasuries, denominator, and asset allocation caution: (59:24-61:26)

Conclusion

The panel offers a deep and dynamic look at Bitcoin, gold, and macro conditions, emphasizing the power of liquidity, risks of late-cycle asset surges, and parallels between gold’s monetary role and Bitcoin’s emerging monetary premium. Caution is warranted, but the relentless tide of money supply and deficit spending keeps re-inflating asset markets—while market structure signals a potential for monumental rotation from gold into Bitcoin once the speculative fever breaks. The group cautions that volatility and cracks in liquidity plumbing should not be ignored, and central bank responses (pivoting between QT and QE) remain paramount for investors across asset classes.

If you want to understand why capital flows might soon shift dramatically—and how that impacts your portfolio across gold, Bitcoin, and equities—this episode is a must-listen for both the macro-minded and crypto-curious.