Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Bitcoin Bottoms As Gov Shutdown Ends & Trump’s Stimulus Plan Takes Shape!
Date: November 10, 2025

Overview

On this “Macro Monday,” Scott Melker and a roundtable of experts (Mike, Dave, and James) dissect the major macro events rocking markets: the apparent end of the US government shutdown, Trump’s surprising $2,000 stimulus proposal, and the rise of 50-year mortgages. The episode dives deep into the intersection of politics, monetary policy, asset performance (especially Bitcoin, gold, and stocks), and the broader economic landscape, weaving in both technical analysis and big-picture macro views. The conversation balances insight, robust debate, and a healthy dose of financial cynicism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Government Shutdown Ends: What It Means for Markets

• Immediate Market Moves: The hosts agree that the shutdown ending provides a burst of liquidity, seen as fueling asset rallies, especially in gold and Bitcoin.
• Stimulus Chatter: Trump floats $2,000 stimulus checks, stirring populist election-cycle talk, despite skepticism about actual implementation.
• Liquidity Dynamics: The panel discusses how recent SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) declines and the Fed’s standing repo facility are keeping liquidity flowing, preventing market “gears from seizing up.”
  • Quote: “They’re going to be more proactive this time…a steady, small stream [of liquidity], not a massive fire hose.” (James, 07:35)

2. Asset Market Technicals & Sentiment

• Bitcoin’s Technical Picture:
  • Bitcoin’s price was below its 200-day MA but sitting at key long-term support, including the 50-week moving average, historically a bottoming zone.
  • The panel stresses the need for a technical “show of strength”—specifically, BTC must hold above $110K for bulls to regain momentum.
  • Quote: “Show me the beef, show me strength… Bitcoin’s got to get above 110 otherwise it’s the leading indicator for everything.” (Mike, 13:33)
• Gold Outlook:
  • Gold seen as “stretched” but supported by central bank buying and global liquidity.
  • The surge above $4,000 attributed to hot money from reopening, but panelists urge caution at these levels.
  • Quote: “I just cannot go out and say it’s going to go to $5,000… there’s certain things you have to kick in the discipline.” (Mike, 13:33)

3. Liquidity, Inflation, and Monetary Policy

• Fed’s Posture: The consensus is for a slow grind upward in liquidity, potential December rate cuts, but no return to the mega-stimulus of past crises.
• Dollar Weakness: Dollar expected to remain soft due to weak consumer sentiment and survey numbers (especially University of Michigan), which the panel derides as “nonsense” but concedes the market pays close attention.
  • Quote: “600 people’s opinions are driving market decisions? It’s like testing one inch of a football field to represent the whole.” (James, 10:43)
• Election-Year Liquidity: Fiscal stimulus and anti-austerity rhetoric are expected to spike into the 2026 election cycle, with both parties abandoning fiscal restraint.

4. Bitcoin Structural Dynamics: Distribution Phase

• Distribution vs. Accumulation: Bitcoin is transitioning from accumulation (‘OGs’ holding) to distribution (OGs cashing out) as liquidity allows large holders to sell without moving the market drastically.
• Impact on Sentiment: Despite widespread bearishness, the panel notes this is typical of major market bottoms—a “wall of worry.”
  • Quote: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a top when everyone is so negative; rallies climb a wall of worry.” (Dave, 35:38)
• Network Fundamentals: Strong hash rate growth and maturing on-chain activity point to Bitcoin’s underlying health, even as price consolidates.
• Four-Year Cycle Dead? Debate on whether the classic “halving cycle” repeats: “For me, the four-year cycle is dead. Bitcoin’s migrated to the distribution phase.” (James, 25:26)

5. Trump’s Stimulus and the Era of 50-Year Mortgages

• $2,000 Trump “Stimmy” Rumors: Most see it as campaign theatrics, with potential to surge consumer inflation if enacted.
• 50-Year Mortgages: Panelists largely deride these as “the greatest sucker bet in the history of mankind” (Scott, 39:02), citing massive additional interest paid for minimal monthly payment relief.
  • Quote: “It’s absolute insanity to save $100 a month and pay double for your house.” (Scott, 39:12)
• Asset vs. Inflation Tug-of-War: Fiscal fire hoses are fueling asset inflation (stocks, housing) at the expense of affordability, with government policy now more about optics and win-the-election tactics than economic soundness.

6. Macro and Political Implications

• Both Parties, No Austerity: The hosts emphasize the new bipartisan consensus—both Republicans and Democrats are now squarely pro-liquidity and stimulus, meaning more deficit, more spending, and more propping up of risk assets.
• Inflation Dilemma: Asset inflation is politically “good” (supports consumer wealth on paper), but consumer inflation is “bad” (gets politicians unelected). Panel expects policymakers to try to time any fiscal pain after election season.
  • Quote: “If you want people happy in September, October, and inflation doesn’t hit till November, you’ve succeeded… they would push that button.” (Dave, 66:45)
• Risk Assets vs. Precious Metals: Debate intensifies on whether crypto will outperform precious metals if/when the stock market corrects. (Mike forecasts crypto underperforming, Dave argues for bullishness, if money-printing continues.)

7. Social and Generational Commentary

• Rise of “Gambling Generation”: The younger cohort, locked out of traditional wealth-building channels, is turning to high-risk trading and gambling in hopes of economic escape. Panel links this to both macroeconomic “rigged” systems and the surge in all forms of speculative betting.
• Notable Anecdote: Dave recounts his grandfather’s experience as a bookie, drawing humorous parallels between traditional and modern markets’ speculative fervor. (56:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Monetary Dysfunction:
  “This whole shutdown was not about austerity versus liquidity. It was about liquidity versus more liquidity. That’s an enormous difference.” – Dave (05:12)

• On Sentiment: “Every single sentiment indicator is massively bearish…It is really, really hard to believe that a top happens when everybody is so negative. It just doesn’t work like that.” – Dave (35:38)

• On 50-Year Mortgages: “This is the biggest sucker bet in the history of mankind…to save a hundred dollars a month and pay double for your house.” – Scott (39:12)

• On Four-Year Cycle: “For me, I just think that four-year cycle is dead. Bitcoin is now in the distribution phase.” – James (25:26)

• On Political Strategy: “If you can make people happy in September or October and inflation doesn’t hit until end of November, hey, you succeeded. Honestly, that’s intensely cynical, Scott, but I think we all kind of believe it.” – Dave (66:45)

Important Timestamps & Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |---------------|-------------| | 00:00–01:40 | Market setup: end of shutdown, stimulus, gold/BTC rally | | 05:12 | Policy stance: “liquidity vs. more liquidity” | | 10:43–12:06 | University of Michigan sentiment data’s flaws | | 13:33–15:17 | Bitcoin technicals: key support, mean reversion | | 25:26 | Death of the four-year Bitcoin cycle | | 35:38 | Sentiment review: bearish, wall of worry | | 39:02–43:41 | 50-Year mortgages and mortgage market analysis | | 47:21–54:10 | Distribution phase, generational divide, and the rise of “gambling”| | 56:18 | Bookie stories and the culture of speculation | | 59:17–62:36 | Crypto vs. precious metals, market leadership debate | | 66:03–66:45 | Election-year market management and policy timing |

Final Takeaways

• The end of the shutdown and new stimulus proposals mean continued liquidity, supporting risk assets—but also laying groundwork for future volatility and inflation.
• Bitcoin is at a structural crossroads: technically consolidating, fundamentally strong, but transitioning from OG holders to broader distribution and facing new macro crosscurrents.
• Sentiment is deeply negative, which historically suggests bottoms, not tops.
• Policy (both monetary and fiscal) is now an unambiguous tailwind for all assets. Both parties are addicted to spending, with election politics guaranteeing further liquidity.
• Macro and generational factors are pushing more investors toward risk (and outright gambling), reflecting deep changes in the economic fabric.
• The next 12 months will hinge on the dance between liquidity, inflation, and political calculation—with Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and housing each a different lens on the unfolding story.

Essential Conclusion:
Despite uncertainty, structural headwinds, and political circus, the panel broadly agrees that liquidity is king—for now. The debate remains: does this flood continue to lift all boats, or does the supply/demand dynamic in crypto and the broader economy trigger the next big reversal? Listeners are left with both the tools to analyze the market and the reminder to maintain skepticism—and perhaps a sense of humor.