Bitcoin Bottoms As Gov Shutdown Ends & Trump’s Stimulus Plan Takes Shape!

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Bitcoin Bottoms As Gov Shutdown Ends & Trump’s Stimulus Plan Takes Shape!
Date: November 10, 2025

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Overview

On this “Macro Monday,” Scott Melker and a roundtable of experts (Mike, Dave, and James) dissect the major macro events rocking markets: the apparent end of the US government shutdown, Trump’s surprising $2,000 stimulus proposal, and the rise of 50-year mortgages. The episode dives deep into the intersection of politics, monetary policy, asset performance (especially Bitcoin, gold, and stocks), and the broader economic landscape, weaving in both technical analysis and big-picture macro views. The conversation balances insight, robust debate, and a healthy dose of financial cynicism.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Government Shutdown Ends: What It Means for Markets

• Immediate Market Moves: The hosts agree that the shutdown ending provides a burst of liquidity, seen as fueling asset rallies, especially in gold and Bitcoin.
• Stimulus Chatter: Trump floats $2,000 stimulus checks, stirring populist election-cycle talk, despite skepticism about actual implementation.
• Liquidity Dynamics: The panel discusses how recent SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) declines and the Fed’s standing repo facility are keeping liquidity flowing, preventing market “gears from seizing up.”
  • Quote: “They’re going to be more proactive this time…a steady, small stream [of liquidity], not a massive fire hose.” (James, 07:35)

2. Asset Market Technicals & Sentiment

• Bitcoin’s Technical Picture:
  • Bitcoin’s price was below its 200-day MA but sitting at key long-term support, including the 50-week moving average, historically a bottoming zone.
  • The panel stresses the need for a technical “show of strength”—specifically, BTC must hold above $110K for bulls to regain momentum.
  • Quote: “Show me the beef, show me strength… Bitcoin’s got to get above 110 otherwise it’s the leading indicator for everything.” (Mike, 13:33)
• Gold Outlook:
  • Gold seen as “stretched” but supported by central bank buying and global liquidity.
  • The surge above $4,000 attributed to hot money from reopening, but panelists urge caution at these levels.
  • Quote: “I just cannot go out and say it’s going to go to $5,000… there’s certain things you have to kick in the discipline.” (Mike, 13:33)

3. Liquidity, Inflation, and Monetary Policy

• Fed’s Posture: The consensus is for a slow grind upward in liquidity, potential December rate cuts, but no return to the mega-stimulus of past crises.
• Dollar Weakness: Dollar expected to remain soft due to weak consumer sentiment and survey numbers (especially University of Michigan), which the panel derides as “nonsense” but concedes the market pays close attention.
  • Quote: “600 people’s opinions are driving market decisions? It’s like testing one inch of a football field to represent the whole.” (James, 10:43)
• Election-Year Liquidity: Fiscal stimulus and anti-austerity rhetoric are expected to spike into the 2026 election cycle, with both parties abandoning fiscal restraint.

4. Bitcoin Structural Dynamics: Distribution Phase

• Distribution vs. Accumulation: Bitcoin is transitioning from accumulation (‘OGs’ holding) to distribution (OGs cashing out) as liquidity allows large holders to sell without moving the market drastically.
• Impact on Sentiment: Despite widespread bearishness, the panel notes this is typical of major market bottoms—a “wall of worry.”
  • Quote: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a top when everyone is so negative; rallies climb a wall of worry.” (Dave, 35:38)
• Network Fundamentals: Strong hash rate growth and maturing on-chain activity point to Bitcoin’s underlying health, even as price consolidates.
• Four-Year Cycle Dead? Debate on whether the classic “halving cycle” repeats: “For me, the four-year cycle is dead. Bitcoin’s migrated to the distribution phase.” (James, 25:26)

5. Trump’s Stimulus and the Era of 50-Year Mortgages

• $2,000 Trump “Stimmy” Rumors: Most see it as campaign theatrics, with potential to surge consumer inflation if enacted.
• 50-Year Mortgages: Panelists largely deride these as “the greatest sucker bet in the history of mankind” (Scott, 39:02), citing massive additional interest paid for minimal monthly payment relief.
  • Quote: “It’s absolute insanity to save $100 a month and pay double for your house.” (Scott, 39:12)
• Asset vs. Inflation Tug-of-War: Fiscal fire hoses are fueling asset inflation (stocks, housing) at the expense of affordability, with government policy now more about optics and win-the-election tactics than economic soundness.

6. Macro and Political Implications

• Both Parties, No Austerity: The hosts emphasize the new bipartisan consensus—both Republicans and Democrats are now squarely pro-liquidity and stimulus, meaning more deficit, more spending, and more propping up of risk assets.
• Inflation Dilemma: Asset inflation is politically “good” (supports consumer wealth on paper), but consumer inflation is “bad” (gets politicians unelected). Panel expects policymakers to try to time any fiscal pain after election season.
  • Quote: “If you want people happy in September, October, and inflation doesn’t hit till November, you’ve succeeded… they would push that button.” (Dave, 66:45)
• Risk Assets vs. Precious Metals: Debate intensifies on whether crypto will outperform precious metals if/when the stock market corrects. (Mike forecasts crypto underperforming, Dave argues for bullishness, if money-printing continues.)

7. Social and Generational Commentary

• Rise of “Gambling Generation”: The younger cohort, locked out of traditional wealth-building channels, is turning to high-risk trading and gambling in hopes of economic escape. Panel links this to both macroeconomic “rigged” systems and the surge in all forms of speculative betting.
• Notable Anecdote: Dave recounts his grandfather’s experience as a bookie, drawing humorous parallels between traditional and modern markets’ speculative fervor. (56:18)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Monetary Dysfunction:
  “This whole shutdown was not about austerity versus liquidity. It was about liquidity versus more liquidity. That’s an enormous difference.” – Dave (05:12)

• On Sentiment: “Every single sentiment indicator is massively bearish…It is really, really hard to believe that a top happens when everybody is so negative. It just doesn’t work like that.” – Dave (35:38)

• On 50-Year Mortgages: “This is the biggest sucker bet in the history of mankind…to save a hundred dollars a month and pay double for your house.” – Scott (39:12)

• On Four-Year Cycle: “For me, I just think that four-year cycle is dead. Bitcoin is now in the distribution phase.” – James (25:26)

• On Political Strategy: “If you can make people happy in September or October and inflation doesn’t hit until end of November, hey, you succeeded. Honestly, that’s intensely cynical, Scott, but I think we all kind of believe it.” – Dave (66:45)

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Important Timestamps & Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |---------------|-------------| | 00:00–01:40 | Market setup: end of shutdown, stimulus, gold/BTC rally | | 05:12 | Policy stance: “liquidity vs. more liquidity” | | 10:43–12:06 | University of Michigan sentiment data’s flaws | | 13:33–15:17 | Bitcoin technicals: key support, mean reversion | | 25:26 | Death of the four-year Bitcoin cycle | | 35:38 | Sentiment review: bearish, wall of worry | | 39:02–43:41 | 50-Year mortgages and mortgage market analysis | | 47:21–54:10 | Distribution phase, generational divide, and the rise of “gambling”| | 56:18 | Bookie stories and the culture of speculation | | 59:17–62:36 | Crypto vs. precious metals, market leadership debate | | 66:03–66:45 | Election-year market management and policy timing |

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Final Takeaways

• The end of the shutdown and new stimulus proposals mean continued liquidity, supporting risk assets—but also laying groundwork for future volatility and inflation.
• Bitcoin is at a structural crossroads: technically consolidating, fundamentally strong, but transitioning from OG holders to broader distribution and facing new macro crosscurrents.
• Sentiment is deeply negative, which historically suggests bottoms, not tops.
• Policy (both monetary and fiscal) is now an unambiguous tailwind for all assets. Both parties are addicted to spending, with election politics guaranteeing further liquidity.
• Macro and generational factors are pushing more investors toward risk (and outright gambling), reflecting deep changes in the economic fabric.
• The next 12 months will hinge on the dance between liquidity, inflation, and political calculation—with Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and housing each a different lens on the unfolding story.

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Essential Conclusion:
Despite uncertainty, structural headwinds, and political circus, the panel broadly agrees that liquidity is king—for now. The debate remains: does this flood continue to lift all boats, or does the supply/demand dynamic in crypto and the broader economy trigger the next big reversal? Listeners are left with both the tools to analyze the market and the reminder to maintain skepticism—and perhaps a sense of humor.

Transcript

[A]

The bitcoin bottom is likely in as the government shutdown comes to an end. We're discussing Trump's $2,000 stimulus checks and of course the idea that we could get 50 year mortgages. These are just a few of the big stories driving markets today that we're going to unpack on macro Monday. Let's go.

[B]

Let'S, let's do.

[A]

Good morning everybody. This platform Streamyard has changed and that intro music did not trigger properly and then I heard it twice. So I don't really know if you guys heard that, but it's a great day to start a Monday correctly here. We've got Mike, Dave and James here of course. Good morning gentlemen. It's a pleasure to see you. We got $2,000 stimulus checks, we got government maybe unshutting down. We've got sofa rates at a historic low here pretending a potential recession. There's gold pumping. I mean I guess we'll start with Mike, but man, do we have a lot of talk.

[C]

No, no, wait. Let's start with the song. I like the new song.

[A]

Did you hear it? Did you hear it?

[B]

Double.

[C]

It's pretty solid.

[A]

Did you hear it?

[D]

Just me.

[C]

I like your old DJ days.

[A]

Yeah, glitchy. If I, if I sounded like that as a dj, I wouldn't have made it very far. So here we are. Mike, what's going on?

[D]

Yeah, well I think this is reiterating. Go loves President Trump. Thank you Ms. Mr. Trump. Just keep pumping the money. So I'll start with the morning media. Anna Wong pointed out the indicators point to continued moderation inflation in terms of tariff pass throughs a Shutdown to effect Q4. If it's done by November 15, GDP in 4Q will be about 0. If it lasts long, you longer 4Q GDP will be negative, expect weak 4Q growth is what you said and, but you know, once we can get through the shutdown, if it's over then we can get that rebound in Q1. And if the Fed does get data which they even if the shutdown ends, we still might not get the data before the next meeting. She's expecting the Fed will cut in December. Now Ira Jersey thinks the market's already set up for a skip. We have a refunding this week and pointing out there's a bunch of there won't be adding a lot of duration. There'll be some duration burns, mostly coupons. The supply and coupons is really increasing much more than duration and bonds 10 year yields. He's looking for 419 and 420 is good resistance. He think it's going to hold because expects to go back to the lower end of the range of 395. And it's basically markets waiting for the economy, the economy to change significantly. But he did mention yeah, Fed's fully priced to skip cutting and he does expect the rates are going to eventually end at three to three and a quarter. It might just take a little longer. Jillian Wolf, our equity strategist point out we have in the midst of one of the strongest earnings seasons on record. The market's shaky. Obviously AI and tech are concentrated, make up 50% of the S&P 500 strong beat rates. But point out operating margins are missing. Margins are revenues minus cost of goods sold. Audrey Child Friedman point out the dollar softer focus on weaker focus on weaker surveys in University of Michigan which is a pretty bad one on Friday. And her working assumption is dollars can continue to weaken. Then I focus on markets kind of stuck In a range WTI crude I love 60. What's gonna take to get to 40 or above it or to 80? Just normal reversion gets it towards 40. Still my bias to get to 80 bottom line using the stock market goes up which probably means you need bitcoin to go up. Copper, same thing. Copper stuck at $5 a pound. What's gonna take to make a go record towards 6 or revert towards 4? My bias is obvious. It's more likely revert towards full particularly if the stock market backs up a little bit. Six is a record high and the rest of the world's facing pretty significant tariffs. You probably don't care about corn. And then I just point out how.

[A]

Bitcorn we like bitcoin.

[D]

Yeah, bitcoin. There you go. And I just point out what the grains are all in similar downward trajectories just like crude oil because they pumped up too much. And then I just point out the extreme value of this stock. The amount of barrels of crude oil to 11 ounce of gold is 68 at the moment. The highest year end close ever was 39 in 1933 and 2020. Very deflationaries. And then I pointed out the bitcoin gold cross. It's just hovering at 25 support right now it's 26 to me the risks are just breaks down below 25. And the key thing to keep it elevated, stock market has to stay up Vix and Bout so they have to stay low. Vix is actually hovering around 20. But overall volatility 90 day volatility is running around 10. So near a 5 year low back to you.

[B]

So we could have taken the last three or four sentences that you basically repeated the exact same thing for the last I don't know how many months now. I mean it's literally the same thing. I mean we've been hovering at the bitcoin gold cross has been hovering around these levels for the same time. All of that is true. But you didn't talk about the impact on what's the likely money supply and why gold? Because last week you were talking about gold dropping and I basically made the funny comment that well, I am now more bullish on gold than you are, which I find, which is amusing because I see the bid is going to be as soon as the government reopens, liquidity is going to flow in and that hot money is going to push gold back up over 4,000 and that's exactly what's happening. And that's also what's happening in other assets. One can't ignore the denominator for too long. I mean this is, this whole shutdown was not about austerity versus liquidity. It was about liquidity versus more liquidity. That's an enormous difference. Right. And you know, I'm trying to tee James up here, but the truth is, you know, his partner has been screaming and, and look, I don't expect a big print. I expect a slow grinding increase in liquidity because they're going to not let the conditions for the big print to happen, I. E. They don't want the gears to seize up. And so they're going to be more proactive this time. That that's based case.

[C]

They're going to continue to be proactive. You can see like we're. So one of the things you mentioned in the beginning, Scott, is the sofa rates have plummeted. Well, you know, month end plumbing and the government shutdown is all weighed in on liquidity. And, and so one of the important drivers of what Dave is saying, which is heading off any financial black swan at the pass would it comes in in the form of, of the, the standing repo facility where you know, if you're a financial, if you're one of the main financial centers, you can, you can just put your treasures in the Fed and get dollars and use those dollars. What we, what we saw was a little bit of stress at the end of the month, whether it was from window dress or whatever it was to, to make sure that everybody's ratios were in order and their, their leverage ratios and to stay within regulations, whatever it may be. But dollars were needed. They weren't out there. And so you saw a little bit of stress in the system, by and large. It was, it was headed off short term because of that standing repo facility. So they, I agree with Dave. And then you're starting to hear, you're hearing the Fed governors are saying, look, we know that we're going to have to add liquidity to, to the banks. We understand that. Now how does that come. It's going to come in like a steady, I would say a steady, slow, like a steady small stream. You know, it's not going to be this massive fire hose of liquidity and qe, but it does expand the balance sheet any way you, any way you want to cut it. It is a form of liquidity. You're adding, you know, reserves is a form of liquidity. And they know they have to do that and they're going to, they've been talking about this. Even Powell said it in his last speech. Now you're hearing governors kind of chirp in about it. You're also hearing governors like Daley saying we ought to take a hard look at, you know, she, she's out this morning. Mary Daly, the, you know, remember the one who said that I'm, I'm too far removed from inflation to feel it because I make too much money. That one, the, the, the, the San Francisco, the Fed president. So, but anyway, she even said that, look, and we, we ought to be, we ought to be approaching this as not so scared that we enter this, that we reenter the 70s, meaning stagflation, that we end up missing the 90s. And so she's clearly saying that we ought to be considering lowering rates. But I want to go back to something else you said, Mike, and this is the one that drives me absolute batshit crazy. And I still do not understand this. And you know what, what I'm going to say when I bring up the University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. This is so Abs just re. It's ridiculous that first of all, that this survey of 600 people is taken so seriously. And it is, and it is, it is such a big driver for some people in, in their decision making in, in finance. It just, it makes me nuts. However, it is real because people do look at it, so it really does make a difference. So Scott, if you can bring up my screen that I just shared and it might, I have something that will, that might be more useful. So here's a consumer sense confidence. Okay? So just so people understand. All right, so this, the, here's the The Michigan consumer confidence is right here, okay? So you could see it's a, it's at, it's at lower than it was in the, you know, it's about the lowest it's been since the pandemic. Okay? So consumer confidence, part of this is driven by the tariff battle and, and the government shutdown. Okay? You can see it just dropped the last few, the last couple of readings, okay? But number one, it's, it's just a few hundred people out of the entire country. Okay. That they're serving over and over and over again. Okay? That's number one. It's.

[B]

It.

[C]

Which is absurd. So I've, I've given you the analogy before. It would be the, the. If you took an. If you took the whole United States electorate, you took actually the whole United States, every single citizen in the United States, you spread across the football field, okay? It would, it would be entire football field, which for, for people don't know, it's a hundred yards long, okay? This consumer sentiment, the reading that we get is the equivalent of testing just one inch of that one square inch of the entire football field, okay? So just like it's a few blades of grass compared to like a billion or billions. Okay? So that's number one. Number two, this survey right here, the consumer survey is. It's dependent on who they survey. We understand that now. And here's the survey. If you break it up between the two parties, here's the. The Republican Party is the. That confidence is up in the 90 range, okay? And the Democratic Party is down in the 40 range. So tell me how much that this leans left. If you just do the math, how much does this survey lean left? Okay, so it's a nonsense survey and we can throw it out. I'm sick.

[A]

It's also nonsense that a consumer survey on the economy is so political, but.

[C]

Hey, it's still political, but so it's. It's nonsense. I, I'd love to throw it out. I'm ready to throw it out. However, the problem is everybody still pays attention to it for some ungodly reason. I can't. I, if I give the one thing in my whole career be like, just stop listening to Michigan, please.

[D]

There's something sometimes more, less valuable or more valuable in the market than a good contrarian indicator. I've been that for a while. But to put. To exonerate you, Dave, a little bit, is they. For the first time since April, right before that number came out, or right as that number came out Friday, the s and P500 dropped below its 50 day moving average. First time since April actually was below it on a daily basis. The VIX was up about 22 above 20 and Bitcoin was hovering at just below 100. That number comes out and the market does the opposite. So it exonerates you David. It looks at it like yeah Mike.

[A]

Don'T we think that the government shutdown news is the reason that bitcoin and things bounced. I mean there's a lot of news that's happened here but when on a weekend Trump willy nilly throws out $2,000 stimulus checks to everybody as an idea which won't happen and then we get news that the Senate has gotten together for a government shutdown. I think that's why things are 50 year mortgages.

[C]

Borrow on your house for 50 years. Bitcoin instead.

[A]

Exactly.

[D]

But so I and so I'm looking for the key indicators. To me it's now bitcoin is below its 200 day moving average. Show the beef, show me strength. It's got to close above 110 and stay above therefore give show me the indicator. And to me so I'm looking for what the markets are going to are telling us. The VIX has popped up near 20. It's hovering a little bit below there. Now let's use the things we were looking for a few months ago when the VIX was too low and bitcoin was too high. Now they're back at these key levels and gold's hovering at this 4000 level. So not pushback. And Dave, I just have to kick in my, my risk manager discipline of gold. As I look at it right now it's the most stretched above its 40, 50 and 60 month mover and average since 2008 right before collected corrected 30% and 2011 which put in a high for about 10, 10 years. So yeah, I'm still bullish gold. I'm not saying getting shorter but sorry, I just cannot go out and say it's going to go to 5,000. I just there's certain things you have to kick in the discipline. So then I'm looking for all the next indicators and that's our right now we're just hovering at these great levels. Gold of 4,000. Yeah that's great but it's really scary to stay this stretched and that's why I'm just looking for the next indicator. So I'm quite simple right now. If we can keep that bitcoin and get above 110 and stay above there maybe microstrategy to alleviate some of its oversold condition. We all know it's getting a little too beat up. Can maybe get back to its 200 day mover which is heading lower. The Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index 200 day move range heading lower. They're all following what I saw in crude oil and the grains and ninth one. Something's got to shift that to me. We're getting towards the time of the year. The risks are yeah sure, we might end the shutdown and then we're going to get all that data. It's probably going to be pretty bad. So I'm looking at show me the beef, show me some indicators. And that's why I'm worried about Bitcoin's gotta. It's got to get above 110 otherwise it's the leading indicator for me for everything.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

But man, if really quickly if you want to talk about these mean reversions and things being oversold and bouncing, I mean just take a look at the 50 week moving average on bitcoin. It was below it back in 2023. It broke above and it's tested it. This will be the fourth time and every single time wick below and then a bounce. I'm not saying that this time has to be exactly the same but 50 week moving average in a bull or even sideways market is a very good indicator for many of the mean reversion and where you'd want to start getting interested again at a bottom for chartists.

[B]

I mean I think that sentiment is probably the. One of the more important things. I made a joke toward you one of your, one of your tweets this morning or last night. I can't remember when it was about proof of simulation. So if there's a, you know the fact that, that the news events seem to always coincide with these sort of major inflection points is. It's eerie in a way. But the truth is that when you look at the. You at the. At the. The base investing case for, for both gold and bitcoin, you understand that we are in uncharted times. We are in peacetime deficits that are. Are insanely high. We are printing enormous amounts of money. From the fiscal point of view, the entire world is in sync in terms of this liquidity. And so like when you look at gold, I look at it and say yeah, you're right. You know in 2011 we got to damn near hit. Didn't quite hit 2000. I think it hit like 1900. I don't know. I bought gold for the first time in 2003. So I was quite giddy in 2011, I remember that. And I held it, et cetera. But the money supply, our total monetary aggregates have more than doubled since then. Globally, actually worse than that. And at the same time we decided to impound dollars from a variety of countries which has made people, central banks say we need to permanently hold more of this other thing as reserves. And so when you look at those structural changes, you could make the argument if it wasn't for the US censoring dollars, that if it wasn't for that, I would say you're right. I think gold, you know, at 4,000 lines up almost exactly.

[C]

Are you talking about, are you talking about when, when Biden seized assets?

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Correct.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

I mean that was catastrophic.

[B]

And, and so, but the problem is, is doing analysis which says okay, 4,000 is the new 2,000 because we've doubled the amount of money in circulation. I would be right there with you. But that would be ignoring a very important structural driver which was central bank buying, which from countries that are not G7. Right. So non G7 central banks are. That's a perma bid. Right. That's not changing. And that, yeah, you could put your own, your own math on. I basically tried to come up with some model and I researched all sorts of people. Couldn't come up with anything definitive. My gut is telling me that 20 to some odd percent, you know, of, of supply constraint may very well on the margin could very well be right. Which is where I came up with 5,000 as my new, my new 2,000. But yeah, I mean, you're right, Mike. Markets get extended. Trees don't grow to the sky. The difference is if you flip over to bitcoin, we are nowhere near those levels. We have yet to see the rally from this quote cycle. We saw literally a massive increase in demand by opening up the financial system. And what happened was way less than most financial models would have predicted.

[D]

Why?

[B]

Because original. Because we've entered a new phase in bitcoin. It's called distribution. And there have been. Everyone's talking about that well written article, you know, by. I forgot who it was. Yeah, yeah. But if you've been listening to Macro Monday for the last four months, you heard me saying exactly the same thing. And I'm not going to change because it's exactly what's happening. I mean it's the same symptomology that caused zcash to do what it's doing. Right. You get some Bitcoin OGs saying oh, we did it once, we could do it again. And so they're going to pile money into a less liquid asset that supposedly is, is more cypherpunk. And yeah, it's going to run for a bit and when the music stops there's no one coming in behind them because the traditional financial system doesn't, isn't going to use the bitcoin narrative on something else because it doesn't make sense for all sorts of reasons. Now it could run 10x from here. So I'm not saying to short it by any stretch of the imagination. I'm basically telling you that it's all symptoms of the same dynamic which is distribution from the original cypherpunk types to the financial system. Now some of the original cypherpunk types understand and they don't talk a lot because they're smart. You know, who, why advertise that you're a billionaire in this world? This makes you a target. Right? But you know, these are people who understand that for bitcoin to actually be, to do hyper bitcoinization, for Bitcoin to become the denominator, which we are so far from, that it needs to be per, to permeate the financial system, every man, woman and child needs to own some Bitcoin. Well, for that to happen, they can't hold it. So it's, you know, this is not a hard thing to understand. But that's what's, that's what's happening.

[C]

Here's the, if you will pull it up, Scott, the article you're talking about. So, but you know, I, I, I.

[B]

Even laugh because there are erstwhile some, you know, there are erstwhile people who claim that markets are going to crash. Like, you know, Jeff Snyder, who articulate in his reason for the crash the exact reason to own Bitcoin. It's almost comical. It's either there's a yes or no question at the heart of all this. Do you believe bitcoin will fail or will it continue to show the strength of the strongest chart that you never show, which is the long term growth and hash rate? And that is a really, really, really important chart. And to the point where I think it's worth, let me, you know, just, let me just pull it up because it's, it's, it when blockchain.com has this chart and you look at it and you see it, it's consistent. So I want to make this bigger. Okay, so hold on, let's do this. Yeah, I want to bring it up in a few different ways. So hold on. So share screen, here we go.

[C]

Scott, you're like. You're like Chevy Chase and Eddie.

[B]

Can I help you with it?

[D]

Can I.

[C]

Okay, Can I help you with that?

[B]

You're looking at this chart, right? This is just the last year and the last year. You can see it. Every time the blue line, which is the hash. Every time the. The black line has gotten above, it's come back. Every time it's down below, it snapped back. That basically would tell you somewhere around 120. But it gets much more interesting when you go to Zoom out now. You zoom out. This is three years now. This. If anyone looked at just the blue line, you would say, wow, this looks like the s P from 2009 through 2000. You know, whatever, right? Just up and to the right, a little bit of volatility. But, you know, there's this. This is a crazily powerful trend. If you look at this, you say, okay, 130. Now you go to all. And all of a sudden you look at a blue line, which shows almost a perfect. And this is that. This is the China band, this little chart down here, which is. Which is. That's it. And we remember how Monumental was now, since then, it is one of the strongest single charts, literally, I have ever laid eyes on. And look at the price. The price was way before the China ban. The price was way in excess of that, then way below, caught up. Way below caught up, a little bit above, but it has not gone above. There's been zero euphoria, effectively, since the China ban. And what happened in 2022? None. And so the question you have to ask yourself is, well, two things. First of all, will this continue to hold? Because if so, you're looking at somewhere 130, 140, 150 as kind of baked in the cake. Because this. This is showing you the ultimate underlying demand for Bitcoin. The other question you have is, will we ever see a euphoria set again? Will FOMO ever kick in? And the answer, you know, it did it once, did it twice, maybe it'll never happen again. Possibly. But if it does, that gives you an idea of where the upside risk is. If you're. If you're looking at. What's the downside? Well, the downside was down here, right? This was after a wave of force consolidations. This was after this fall that came down to meet the line, and it went below it. Why? Because FTX failed, causing enormous forced selling from people who had the. Who had no choice. Waves of bankruptcies as I said just, just anecdotally and, and coin route serves a very reasonable cross section of trading firms. 75% went into severe enough distress to not trade for three months and more than 50% of our clients went bankrupt in that period. 50, that's 5, 0. Crazy. So the force selling was massive and you saw what happened. And so you have to kind of discount this and this is the recovery now from here. Now you have tariff tantrum, yada, yada yada, and things happen. But I, I think it's really important to contextualize this. When you look at lines on a chart and you ignore two factors you can't ignore, just can't ignore the, the, the notion of. And I want to stop sharing. This is enough. You can't ignore two things that I always talk about.

[C]

One, if you're over sharing, you're over sharing again.

[B]

Dave, is it, Did I stop?

[D]

No.

[B]

Yeah. Anyway, the, the can't ignore money, the aggregate money supply in all these charts and you can't ignore from a bitcoin perspective the strength of the bitcoin network. If you do, you're going to make a mistake. That's the point. Yeah, yeah.

[A]

I mean there's plenty of vacation references from you.

[C]

There's, there's so many. I mean, look, one of the things that we've got to really kind of hammer out is the four year cycle. Like we do. People keep talking about the four year cycle, the four year cycle. And I mean for me I just think that that four year cycle is, is, is dead. There's just, we're not going to continue on this. You know, there's like a, a set of what, three data points of, of cycles and four data points of cycles. So it's just not enough to, to hang your hat on. If you're a professional investor or trader, you, you've got to realize that this, the, this is migrated. Bitcoin is migrated to distribution phase. Like Dave said, distribution phase, which is a completely different part of a, a cycle of an adoption of a technology. Okay. And like the IPO article, you know, you get all the, you have the, basically what happens is, and the, the parallel there that Dave is talking about is that for the listeners, is that you, when back in the day when you have an IPO like Amazon or you know, Google or whatever, the insiders got massive, massive, massive amounts of shares. They had so many shares that they couldn't really sell them on the market without driving the market price lower. And so they had to sit on the shares. They could There was, they were just stuck in them because there wasn't enough liquidity for two reasons. If people saw the insider selling, number one, that would be bad and number two, if they it the sheer amount they would have to sell to get, to get liquid and to, or to actually monetize that wealth that they had accumulated would just be, it would just, it would be insurmountable. So they would, they would drive the market lower. That's the argument that I'm hearing. And I don't, I, I am not an expert on, on chain analytics. I'm depending on, you know, the insight of others. There is a debate about this. Are those coins moving because of Segwit or are they moving because of. That's Willy Wu is saying.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Are they moving because the, the OGs are selling because they liquidity? And that's the big question. And it's a little bit of both.

[A]

But mostly the latter.

[C]

Yeah, I think it's a, I think it's a lot of OGs finally have enough liquidity that they're like, wait, I could sell 10000 coins and not move the market. I would only move it a few thousand dollars. And you know, when, when bitcoin's over a hundred thousand dollars, I said I would be selling some. It's been, it's been stuck here for months and months and months. Okay, I'm done. I want to go get my billion dollars and just go and be done, you know. And that's what you're talking about. You're talking about somebody who bought $15,000 worth of Bitcoin that turned into $1.05 billion in 14 years. Okay, well, and then everybody says, well, where's that money going? Is it going to the stock market? Is it, they're going, is it must be going into other altcoins or. No, I mean they're, they're buying, you know, they're actually putting probably into short term treasuries and, and, and houses and mansions and yachts and whatever. And that's the distribution, the redistribution of wealth. And they're, they're, you know, and now you're taking those coins and putting into a lot of smaller hands. And that's an important development in the bitcoin, you know, adoption phase. And that's really important. Which is where I guess we, that's one of the forks in the road we come to with you, Mike, is that I, I, I fail to believe that that bitcoin sentiment is at an all time high. I believe that it's actually closer to a low from, from the people who've been in it for a while. And you know the, the media still loves to hate it. And even though it's being talked about all the time, they still love to hate it. And the first thing you saw when bitcoin dipped before below 100,000 was headlines that bitcoin is under a hundred thousand dollars. It's, it's crashing, you know, 12 minutes. Yeah, crashing from 103,000 to 100 and or to 99,000. You know, I mean it's, it's an intraday move for this thing now. So you guys.

[A]

Yeah, that's a, I brought up your tweet before about the long term holders and then of course Mike, snap back and then, and then Dave jumped in. So you guys were kind of having a little thing over there on, on X. But listen to just shift away from bitcoin. Although it's all related, Mike. I mean we've got, we either talk about the government shutdown, right? We've got that obviously coming to an end or we can jump into $2,000 stimulus checks and 50 year mortgages. I mean these seem like, well, the first thing populist election cycle type ideas we're starting to see here.

[D]

Right? Yeah.

[C]

I mean the first thing, the Senate shutdown is really important and that why the markets are reacting is because just remember the TGA, the Treasury General Account is supposed to have $850 billion in it. That's the target what's got about a trillion dollars in it right now. So it's about $150 billion that's waiting on the sidelines come back into the economy. It's just sitting there waiting. And so that's why the market's like, okay, we're going to get this thing, we're going to get the economy driving again. We're going to get all the flights back online, we're going to get the, the government workers are going to get their paychecks and that money is going to flow back into the economy. It's an important deal, it's important situation. So. But go ahead Mike.

[D]

For that kind of stuff. I chose not to focus on it too much because to me it's what markets are telling us what to be expecting. And I do and one of the things I've been mentioned, I'm so frightful in the market and this last weekend's Naples family office, supposing I get to meet Gary Cardone and obviously Michael Saylor was the keynote, made me come down. Sorry I guess I just, it was quite well populated. Was just, you know, things I expect to put in my book someday. Is in the books going to either title being a title, it was different or it wasn't different. Obviously I'm still leaning towards the latter on that. But it's when people clapped, when people express bullish bitcoin outlooks, I was just, oh my gosh, seriously. And these are educated, wealthy people. That's just scary stuff. Now I just point out points of performance. Bitcoin's performance is absolutely sucked this year. On a risk adjusted basis, it's up 13% s and P500 is up 70%. Gold's up 55%. Is that going to change? And my point is that's what the year a third year in a row, S&P 500 open up almost 20%. We're going to get a 10% drawdown and stay down for a while. It's just going to happen matter of time and then bitcoin can easily drop 50% and that's my point. So I'm looking towards next year. Are we, we're right at 100 grand. So let me kind of, let me finish my outlook. We're going to either be at 50 or 150 next year. Number one prerequisite to go to 150 is number one, stock market has to go up now. Okay, maybe it's different this time, but that's first. Everything else is trickling down from there. And I look at it like, okay, well we've had all year to do better. Everybody says buy the dip and it's just horrible. Now I look at the Bloomberg galaxy crypto index as of Friday was down 1% in the year. It trades 3 to 4. It trades 3 to 4 times the volatility. So I'm pointing out these are bull market peak sign. It's my job to be ahead of the game. Now last year, obviously, you know, I tilted way too early towards gold, but even gold's getting too expensive. So I just say there's certain times to say, you know, good luck, maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe bitcoin will stay above that $110,000 200 day moving average. But I can easily see it, you know, and just a normal drawdown, that's me five on someday that happens and you go back to 50 grand and then reset everything. Let's get dogecoin down this air. Let's get flush out the space, do what's normally used to happen and then reset. It's not a failure. These are signs, these are signs of, of peak bull market stuff.

[C]

I just want to say, I want to reiterate this one more time. You're using, you're, you're, by using year to date, you're cherry picking a performance metric that doesn't make sense with bitcoin because it was up 50% from, from November to the end of the year because of the election. And so you've got, you've got to go back to last year, use a two year metric or something. And this is the one that, you know, Peters loves to dunk on. He just loves to dunk on this, you know, like oh, bitcoin's done nothing this year. Look at gold. Okay, go back. Bitcoin has a tremendous move right after the election that of course it's going to have take a breather. It's going to consolidate. That's a real, that's, it got over a hundred thousand dollars in November and it's, and it's basically it came back down with the tariff tantrum and it came back up and it's been sitting somewhere around a hundred dollars, a hundred thousand dollars since May and it's been a hundred thousand and above since I.

[A]

Mean hit a hundred thousand in 2024. Right?

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean you can't have it December 6th. You can't have it both ways. You can't, you can't say that bitcoin is overbought and too bullish because a bunch of boomers who dip their toe in the water want to look good and don't want to and don't want to thinking they took career risk by putting client money into, into bitcoin when the entire crypto community is overwhelmingly bearish. And, and I just asked Grok and I went through this. So crypto fear and crypto fear and greed, extremely bearish. Right. Which you know, we all understand. I'm contrarian Social media sentiment and bull and bear index, overwhelmingly bearish. Active address sentiment indicator. Massively bearish funding rates. Massively bearish meaning all of these sentiment indicators. The only one that's not is the MRV score which is basically neutral to slightly bearish. So every single one of them is negative. And, and then I asked Grok to go through and survey just all the various four year cycle people and, and how prevalent they are. And Grok concluded that that while other than people like literally Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes are the only two they found that were in the bullish camp of the major posters. Once again, bearish.

[A]

Yeah, I've been posting and so, so.

[B]

Google yeah you, you and Arthur Hayes everybody else is the other way around. Literally. It's, it's kind of funny there are a few people who think that yeah we'll get a little relief rally here and then we'll go into a bear market, you know etc and then you go through Google trend on bitcoin searches once again way the hell down the, the, the search is bitcoin selloff. Right. That's the only terms, those are the only terms that, that are up. All I will say is anecdotally this is, this has been, it is really, really really hard to believe that a top happens when everybody, when, when the, the, the horde is leaning negative. It just doesn't, doesn't work like that. And, and, and it, it's a very strange thing. It's not at this time is different because we've seen this before. Right. You know rallies tend to climb a wall of worry and you generally, you know when you get a rally and it consolidates for a line time, you then have to question well it's going to go up or down. Well just remember up or down on that line as money continues to flow into the economy means that staying still since January. I'm sorry James. While we've pumped as much money into the economy as we have means it's actually already fallen. Right. You need to adjust your lines to take into account the denominator. I mean you know, I know we don't like algebra anymore but when we run, but when we run chart lines that ignore what you're pricing the, the thing in to you know, to quote Michael Saylor, the melting ice cube. But when you, when you have a 2 trillion dollar deficit, everything should be up and if it isn't then it's actually down. And so what if the actual correction that you've been calling for has been happening by prices not moving nearly as fast as liquidity flowing in. Yeah. And honestly I think that is what's happening. And oh by the way your other indicator that you love to look at, you know I, I jokingly refer to it as the fart coin bitcoin ratio but it's, but meme coins have not exactly rallied as strongly. Yeah, of course they do.

[A]

On the short, very few things have rallied. That's kind of the argum, the lack of four year cycle and you could even say as Mike was pointing out a lack of a bull market in 2025. But that means that if we were miscalling it a bull market it means either we haven't started one yet or we never really got one for the crypto industry beyond Bitcoin at the end of last year. So it leaves us at an interesting place. But I do want to very specifically talk about these few things. I think we all know the government shutdown is ending Donald Trump's $2,000 tariff payout. The stimmy checks here, I mean, I don't understand, I don't understand. And then, but very quickly besent came on TV was like, yeah, but your $2,000 dividend could be just from your like tax on tips and the tax breaks that you're getting. So no check, just we're calculating that generally you got $2,000 off. And then I mean we got to talk about 50 year mortgages and I just want to show you guys some data. A lot of people are like 50 year mortgages are a great idea. People will be able to afford housing, it'll be a lot lower. Here's the math. On a 50 year mortgage, for those who don't know a 30 year mortgage versus a 50 year mortgage, your payment on a $410,000 house only goes down about 112amonth and you end up paying 963,000 instead of 470,000 for your house. This is the biggest sucker bet in the history of mankind. And this is.

[B]

No, no, no, no, no, no, you're wrong. There's something today that exists and people ignore it.

[A]

Okay?

[B]

They're bigger interest only mortgages which are bigger. Sucker bet.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, but I mean this is like, it's absolute insanity to save a hundred dollars a month that you.

[C]

Well, the interest rates aren't the same there, but you know, well, you pay.

[A]

A higher interest rate for a 50 year mortgage. That's why.

[B]

Yeah, okay, so look, here's, here's a few things. Like personally I think it's silly, but it doesn't matter, right? You know, Gary Cardone said this best. So it's, this is all part of extend and pretend. That's it, that's what it's part of. But let's under, but, but let's, let's be fair for a second. If you look at, at the UK for example, there, you people, most people don't actually own anything. They buy what's called leaseholds, which are 100 years in duration. Right. You know, this is, this is a well trodden path. And the difference between a 50 year mortgage and renting, there are two massive differences and people really ignore them. It's actually Kind of funny one is quality of life. If you rent, you can't remodel a kitchen, you can't make an extension, you can't build a pool, you can't, don't.

[A]

Even know if you're going to be kicked out in a year.

[B]

Obviously you can't even change a light fixture. It's a major quality of life difference. So all these people who say it's the same as renting. Sorry, not sorry, you're totally wrong. And let's just understand, UK people are.

[A]

Saying that that's not entirely accurate in the comments. They're going nuts. But we can add.

[B]

Oh, on the, on the leaseholds. Okay, well it was when I lived there in 95. Okay. So you know, it might be different now. I, I freely admit that they're saying.

[A]

Mostly freehold, not leasehold, but. Yeah, go ahead.

[B]

Okay, but there are freeholds and leaseholds. There's, there is a difference. Okay, but any event.

[C]

Yeah, commercial loans go 100 years.

[B]

Now understand we have interest only loans, etc. You could do a 50 year mortgage on a fixed rate and by definition it will be a higher rate than the 30, 100%. You're all right. Unless of course we have a recessionary yield curve and who the hell knows, but let's ignore that for a second. There is nothing in the world stopping you running a 50 year mortgage on a 10 year ARM or a 3 year ARM, or a 7 year ARM, which is an adjustable rate mortgage as well, so as to equalize the rates. So if you, if you do equalize the rates, which you can definitely do, it saves more than that. It is, it is useful. You are the trade off that you're making, which is, which has been accurately pointed out is you are not accumulating equity. If you're buying it, it's more or less like buying perpetual swaps instead of owning Bitcoin. You're effectively taking more leverage to own it. Meaning two things. You have more risk, so if it goes down, you're more likely to end up underwater because you have less of an equity buffer in terms of what you build up. And it means that you also have more upside, right, in terms of leverage. So you understand that. And then the second thing it means is that you're, well, I mean, I guess you're not accumulating as much equity, so you don't get there. But the truth is it really is a question of certainty. The difference between renting and a super super long mortgage is if you don't make your adjustment if you take something like a seven year or a ten year, which is more than most people rent, if you peg your adjustable rate at the amount of time that you expect to live in the house, well guess what? You've locked in certainty for that period which you don't have when you're renting.

[A]

And rent will also rise and your effective mortgage payment will continue to decrease with inflation over time.

[B]

Right, exactly. So positives and negatives. It is a gimmick. No one can argue that, but it's completely unsurprising. As someone pointed out in a space last night, Japan has hundred year mortgages, which is insane. But you know, it, it's effectively it is what it is. I mean it's a gimmick and there's nothing wrong with the gimmick, but it's, it's still a gimmick. You know, the real problem is we're printing so much freaking money that. And we're pushing it into assets. And this is where I want to tilt to, to say, to use Mike's favorite word is we're pushing it into assets. And therefore asset going asset inflation is considered quote good. Except home, asset at home isn't as an asset that's bad because now that makes things unaffordable. And that's a political thing. So don't be surprised rhetorically if you haven't seen it.

[A]

I will say if rates were like 2.5 or 3% and you can get a 50 year mortgage and go ahead and than just buy Bitcoin and watch that mortgage become smaller and smaller.

[B]

Smaller. Yeah, that's all true. But, but my point here is maybe two points. First, we're seeing already signs of people talking about houses as not assets. Why? Because they want to try to decrease real estate, you know, appreciation relative to others. They're going to fail with that because the world doesn't look at it that way. The other is if in fact you gave out two thousand dollar stimmy checks, that is the actual worst possible thing you can do. If what you want to try to do is minimize consumer inflation while maximizing asset inflation. And guess of the big one of.

[C]

The problems, the print in the, in the pandemic was that they actually sent money straight to people's checking accounts.

[B]

Well, that's what that, that and that's.

[C]

That was one of the reasons for the consumer inflation.

[B]

Exactly right. Well that when supply chains were constrained were. That's exactly what happened. But if you don't think that that'll happen again, then you're not paying attention. So I think, I think that's why Besent was walking this back because he's like, wait a minute, the last time we did this, this was catastrophically stupid. Right? And so maybe we shouldn't be catastrophically stupid again. And the real question will be who's going to win? The people, the, the political strategists that say we need to do this before the midterms, they're not going to do it now. If they do it, it'll be in the summer before the midterms. That's when they'll do it. Is, it'll be a pure political buy off. Whether they do so or not, we'll, we'll find out. But I think it's a really interesting question.

[A]

I don't understand how Republicans float stimulus checks. I guess he gave the last one, but I just, it's like any party. Fiscal responsibility is just absurd.

[D]

Well, exactly. So that's what let's talk about what's rope and what's changed since our last macro monies and money. We had almost a complete Democratic sweep in the elections. And the number one issue was affordability or inflation. That's a lose, lose for Mr. Trump because the number one factor for all inflationary factors now on an unprecedented basis, only really two times in history is the US stock market. It's 10 on, it's going up, it's creating more inflation. It's 2.3 times GDP. It is, it is the economy now. And that's his bias. We want a higher stock market but don't want inflation. This is a lose, lose for Mr. Trump. And that's my point is what I think. I'm showing signs of the end game. So the Fed started cutting rates in September 17th. Since that date, 10 year note yields are up about 10 basis points. Bitcoin's down about 10%. If that's not going to help bitcoin, what is? And the stock market's hovering up around 2%. So my point is we're at the end game. We're near it. And bitcoin gold's telling me that bitcoin versus a broad basket of, I'm sorry, broad basket of cryptos versus precious metals are telling me that. And now it's just about one little thing. The stock market has to stay up. And that to me is what this declining bitcoin to gold ratios tell me. Declining microstrategy. And I hope you're right. I hope by the end of this year or so can say, yeah, we're above 110. I think we're more likely to be back down in the air, which is below 94. It's just. This is where things are leaning now. And I look at. As a trader, give me a rally, I'll sell it. Certainly happening in things like crude oil. Give me a rally or sell it. Give me rallies and crude oil and bitcoin. I think people are looking to sell because they're realizing the. This failed performance. Yes, that's the point that you made. Dave's. It was James and Dave. It was up a lot last year. But this is what commodities do. Remember, bitcoin's not even a commodity. It's got millions and millions of competitors. This is something that's never happened. Let's talk about what's really happening. Millions and competitors, and it's showing poor performance. Is that going to just shift on the dime with the Fed easing? And the Fed already said they're going to stop easing. I'm talking about an end game here of risk assets going up.

[A]

Dave's muted. Dave is. Dave, you're muted, which is making it so much better because we can see just how passionate you are. Energy drink in there.

[C]

You're gonna spit it out.

[B]

I almost spit out my little energy drink here. It's like, okay, you know what? I'm gonna ignore the millions of competitors line because it's. It's like we've been, we've been over.

[A]

That so many times. Not doing it again.

[B]

But, but bitcoin is undeniably. No one can argue that Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since January. You can't. I mean, you can, you can say anything you want. You can call that poor performance, call it whatever the hell you want to call it. I don't care. Doesn't matter. And by the way, it could continue for another two or three years. It could continue a very long time. It, it, it's based on information we don't know, which is how much supply. What's the supply demand curve look like for bitcoin? All these people who predicted bitcoin will go to the moon immediately effectively assume that because it's a constrained supply, they just assumed that it's inelastic to price. Well, if there's One thing that 2025 proved is Bitcoin is not inelastic to price. There are holders who own it who actually reacted very strongly to the price being over a hundred thousand. Yeah, that's a fact.

[D]

That.

[B]

And we don't know when and where their, their demand or their supply curve Is it could be that we are reaching the end of the hundred thousand supply and they'll sit back and wait for the next round number, likely somewhere between 2 and 250 before they sell more. It could be that they're here infinitely, you know, or seemingly infinitely so that we stay here for five or 10 years. It could be, we don't know. More likely it's an actual curve that will show a step function like we did from 10,000. That supply at. There was a lot of supply at 10,000 and it took a while. And I pointed this out when Paul Volker first said fastest horse in the race in that May of that year. First of all, the day that he said it, it spiked above 10,000, went below it didn't do a damn thing until mid October when it started creeping up into the low teens. And then as soon as it became obvious and. And this is exactly how markets work in November and December of that year that, oh wait a minute, the people who had sold and then it went.

[A]

Taylor bought bitcoin in August or September.

[B]

Yeah, right. But it still took a couple of months. And then it started to move and then what it do it went up by a factor of six. Now I am not calling for it to go up by a factor of six. I am merely stating that the nature of supply curves is not an overhang that lasts forever at a level. And so what you need to do as a prognosticator is understand and if you don't take that supply curve into account, then you're going to get the wrong answer. Of course we also have to understand demand. And your point, Mike, is whether I agree with it or not, and I clearly don't that there's lots of other competitors, but there's no doubt that xrp, for example, takes some demand away from bitcoin. No doubt that's why they trade so similarly. Right. There's no doubt that some tokens claim like ether. A lot of the ether bulls claim that it's going to replace Bitcoin. You know, I'm not going to get into that here. I am firmly on the. There's only one asset in crypto that is money and lots of other assets that may very well have enormous value in the end, but not necessarily as the base layer. But that's my personal predilection. There are so many topics on that. This is a macro show. I don't want to talk there, but to. To. We are trying to understand the macro factors that influence the supply and demand curves. That's what we're doing, you know, we could talk about it any way we want to talk about it. And I just think that the liquidity coming in from the government shutdown ending, both parties wanting to spend more, and the Federal Reserve understanding that we still have toxic on the balance sheets of banks, I call commercial real estate, we have a very two tiered economy which is causing means that's choking off aggregate demand, has a extraordinarily larger impact on unemployment than it does on inflation. People are starting to realize that these are true. Right. And so these are the forces that we need to prognosticate. And the only thing that's changed over since the last week is the likelihood of the Republicans thinking austerity is a good idea has gone to close to zero because they're going to focus on affordability and helping people because they don't want the same thing to happen next year. So the political situation, anyone looking at Mom Dhumi winning in New York, Spamberger winning in Virginia, Cheryl winning in New Jersey And California's Prop 50 going the way that it did as not galvanizing the Republicans to be more behind stimulative policies, you're not paying attention. So as macro analysts, you're right, Mike. It's a huge difference. Forget the politics. It means more money is coming in the system over the next year and we need to act accordingly. That's, that's, that's my diatribe for today.

[A]

Which means buy Bitcoin, right?

[B]

Well, I, yes, of course I think that, but I'm telling you Bitcoin might not be the best performing asset in a world depending on the demand curve, I mean the supply curve from people who are selling it. I personally think that it's going to normalize. And yes, I, I, that that's if people give me my advice, ask my advice, I say unleveraged Bitcoin, preferably, you know, depending on, on your, your level of technical competence, your, you know, what you, how many dependents you have, etc, all sorts of other factors. How you buy unlevered Bitcoin, that becomes a much more complicated conversation. But you know, that's my favorite play. Yes.

[C]

Scott, you can bring up what I just shared. This is why you buy unlevered Bitcoin. This just happened, why you've been talking for the last 20 minutes. All these leveraged trades were wiped out in the last 20 minutes.

[B]

Yep.

[C]

And that's what you know, so what again, once again we've got to have the, you know, short term volatility of bitcoin around and the, the volatility seems to be, you know, it stays between somewhere between 100 and 125, 000 between here and May. But the intraday volatility has been like this on and off for months because of this nonsense. And so that's what Dave's talking about. So you know, you, you go and lever up a thousand dollar trade to a hundred thousand dollars, you're gonna lose a thousand dollars pretty quickly.

[B]

So. Yep. I mean and look at immediate follow through. It's like I don't think I've ever seen a community of. I don't even call them investors, call them gamblers. I don't think I've ever seen a community of gamblers more willing to get to wrapped in the nose with the newspaper by the market. Every single time they think there's going to be a breakout or a breakdown, they get crushed.

[C]

Well and look, let's, let's be, let's be fair. Okay. So at least the three of us on, on the right side of the screen, the bottom here are old enough to have lived through a number of cycles and we understand how long it takes to, to build wealth and we have had opportunities to build it that, that you know, the younger generation quite honestly just they're killing themselves just to be able to survive. And so it's a it we've created through this, this you know, system of the Cantillon Effect has created a gambling, you know.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

Demographic to get a chance. Yeah.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Because if they're willing to, you know, I just, I gotta try to do something. I'm this, I'm never gonna get there doing what they said I was that I should do. Go to college, take out the loan, go get a job, rent an apartment and I can't even pay for the food for the week. How am I gonna, like, how am I ever gonna put enough away to you know, buy gold?

[A]

Listen, it's the new version of playing the lottery with your last money from work so that you have a chance to become rich. And it's a tale. Yeah. By the way if you like leverage apparently it's coming to us crypto exchanges soon.

[C]

Awesome.

[A]

Yay.

[C]

Well and there's no, I mean it does, there's so no surprise that there's a bet now button on everything you do. When you be any sports screen that comes up it's like bet now.

[B]

Bet bet.

[C]

Like how many?

[D]

It's 100.

[C]

Now. The sports bettering, it's betting. It's you know, and you see that's why you see things like the, the, you know, the, the, the receiver from. Or the, yeah, the, the receiver from Vanderbilt holds out the football. It doesn't touch the corner cone, but they call it a two point, you know, conversion because, well, that covered the three point spread. I mean, like you, you can't argue that this stuff isn't happening.

[B]

You.

[C]

Now you're seeing it, people are getting arrested that the, the industry is massive and so, you know, what's old is new again.

[B]

So. My grandfather was a bookie. My grandfather got kicked out of the mob because in the 50s, he didn't believe that the mob was capable of fixing college basketball games. And so he laid off bets. He didn't cost them, he cost them money because they knew that they told him which way to let that the books move, by the way, bookies, just so you understand it, if you ever watch the show, bookie don't do what, what the comedian does in that show, bookies always lay off bets and they take what's called the vig, which is the vigorish, which is the spread. My grandfather literally got kicked out of the mob. They said, max, we love you, so we're not gonna, it's not gonna be bad, but go work for your brother, the florist. You're not really.

[A]

Max does not sleep with the fishes.

[B]

He is not. My grandfather lived to 92, but he, he did that. My father always said, don't bet on anything that breathes because you're paying too much of a vig. And sports betting is so big. But when you see arguably the best closer in baseball during a period of time, Emmanuel Clause, getting himself into debt and helping fix baseball games, that's the story that came out. You understand? Anyone who thinks that, that, that crypto markets are rigged. Oh, my God. I mean, that's so much worse.

[A]

You had something to share there.

[D]

Yeah, that's. Thanks, guys. If you can go back there, I'm getting jealous. You're getting to show charts and I'm not. So I want to show a chart and make a prediction for next year. So this is a chart of the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index, which I initially suggested here, divided by a basket of precious metals. There's only four and there's no, there's no going back to 2017. We can agree there's basically no trend in the basket of the cryptos divided by a basket of precious metals. The difference is an index will always have a survivor. Biases, not biased. Now right now there's millions of cryptos it can choose from. It'll take the top ones but always have a survivor bias. That should be great for an index. There's no survivor biases. Where four precious metals. There's only four precious metals. My point is I will make a prediction that this chart will go down next year. Meaning the basket of Prisca. All the basic cryptos anyone you want to look at, even bitcoin on any time measured basis will drop versus precious metals. And there's one key reason I'm making that is I'm just overlaying this. Is this US stock market cap to gdp. I think at some point this is going to go down. It has in the past. Oh my gosh. But when it does, we're going to see most of these cryptos go to zero which is overdue. And then we'll have a great time to buy. That's just my base case now. I should not be buying any. Anything in cryptos, mostly bitcoin. The rules of economics will apply. Unlimited supply is never good for any. Any ass. Let me finish. And they will get through that period. I think it's starting now is my fearful. That's why my fight so far just that Vix going back to 20. Yeah, it's hanging out there. Just bitcoin drop and dropping down to a hundred thousand. Those are shots across the bow. Now they got to really stop doing that. Otherwise things like MicroStrategy are just telling you where things are going.

[C]

Well Mike, how many, how many, how many cryptos are in that index?

[D]

So there's only 12 and it can track millions. But that's the point is it's only going to track the ones that are doing the best.

[C]

Yeah, those 12 are likely. None of those 12 are going to zero, you know.

[B]

But, but it, but, but here this chart is, is perfect. Keep it up on the screen. We are all exactly in the middle of the range. So we're really. So what you're basically saying is and, and my expectation is precious metals and crypto all go higher because by the way we're printing money. We're going to print more money. Money. So bias it upwards and everything. Not, not this chart but you know, the precious metals as well because you can be bullish on both. But we're right in the middle of the range meaning that it was overbought and now it's back to even. Here's the thing. Overlay this with this with the growth in the bitcoin network that we talked about before and tell me what's going on. How much of this is bitcoin dominance going, you know in one direction. How much of this is, is, is our other factors Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has been driven by Tom Lee and we, we all understand that. But if you look really, if you just did the chart Bitcoin versus Gold, I think you see a very similar chart. So that's which is effectively it's, it's right back in the middle and, and both are biased but it's ignoring the growth in the bitcoin network completely.

[D]

Can I point out, here's what the thing is. Here's the thing. It's going down despite the stock market going up. That's the problem that's showing the divergent weakness. You have to make the point is either either cryptos are going to catch up or stock markets going back down. And when you get the highest ever you probably just have to take, take risk off the table. And to me that's what gold is telling me this year that you're supposed to just say get out. Thank you very much. I'll clip my coupons and treasuries.

[B]

Great. And that's wonderful for you except for understand corporate profits look almost exactly the same as stock market gdp. Corporate profits to GDP are up just as much. So once again stock markets are, are effectively discounting future cash flows from corporations. And the future cash flows from corporations are up that much. Does that mean that you'll be wrong? No. Corporate profits could nosedive. We could do things, we could elect president AOC and, and going that way. And if you do that then yeah, you know the S P could get lose 50% yet. But what will actually happen is not that corporate profits will nosedive because the left and the right are one party and they both take a lot of donations. And we've seen this in the healthcare fight and anyone who wants to understand that we talked about that a lot this weekend. I mean we have enacted rules to benefit large corporations over small and make the big companies in the S P do better. But you can't spread this chart of the stock market to GDP looks like and when you look at that chart, if that's the only thing you looked at and the only data point you look at, you would sell everything in.

[D]

Clip coupons 100 so but I also do the same thing compared to this US stock market versus the rest of the world. It's the same thing. The difference is US stock market versus Russell World has started rolling over. US stock market versus Gold has started rolling over. The only thing that really hasn't started rolling over unless this is the beginning of is the monthly chart is US stock market versus gdp. So I'm using different measures. But just how about us compared to the rest of the world? I mean it's the highest ever.

[B]

Yeah, no, it's true. But US corporations have been outperforming. Why? Because they're selling to the rest of the world that we globally dominate in a bunch of industries that, that there wasn't that the last time when Clinton was in the White House, he didn't try to destroy the tech industry. He did exactly the opposite of what Biden. Well, not Biden President Auto Pen did in terms of digital assets. And understand that is why I mean the mat we talk about the Mag 7, you know, as reverence. The Mag 7 doesn't exist if the policies in the late 90s were the same towards technology and the Internet as they were towards crypto in the previous administration. So understand we're benefiting from that and honestly I don't know that they're, that they. If it wasn't that Elizabeth Warren won't be put out to pasture in the next administration anyway. So we'll see what happens. But the truth is corporate profits are what matters. And yeah, they're at risk if policies change, but as long as we're deregulatory, I mean what's. Forget the government shutdown. What was the projected GDP growth for 2025 before the government shutdown was 4%. Right. What's 2026 going to look like with the government up and running and, and an emboldened Trump trying to deregulate even faster and printing even more? You're it. Those are the things that you have to, that you have to look at. But that, that's where charts kind of could be difficult. Is there a crash at some point in corporate profits because we do stupid things at a political level? Quite possibly, but not now. And markets, unfortunately they claim to be a discounting method for the future. We all know they the same reason that they look at the University of Michigan survey.

[C]

The crash, the crash would be short term. And in, in my opinion it would have to be related to the concentration of the, the, the few assets, the few stocks that are the drivers of the AI revolution here that you know, make up 30 of the S P. So that's like that's, that's where you could have that. A distinct and, and sharp drawdown. If that kind of euphoria, you know, if that, if that wanes or if it, if that kind of gets Popped a bit. Now, whether or not long term, that is where these, these stocks are going to trade long term. Well, yeah, they're pro, they're looking out the 28, 29, 30 on the earnings. Do they get there? Likely they do. It's just a question of have we gotten ahead of ourselves a little bit too much. And then that's what starts that, you know, snowball effect. And because we're so concentrated ETFs, that starts another snowball effect where the selling begets more selling. And that's what, you know, Mike's sell off. That, that is where my opinion that kind of occurs. But again, going back to the beginning of the show, the, the Fed, the Treasury and this administration will do everything they can to avoid a sharp drawdown in markets because the markets are driving the economy and the economy needs to be up and running or else those deficits are going to blow out from 2 trillion to 4 trillion in a nanosecond.

[D]

And they're also driving inflation and inflation is a great way to get unelected. Great.

[C]

And they don't care about anything but getting elected. That's true. But the, the worst thing to do is go into a recession. You're not going to get re elected in a recession.

[B]

No.

[D]

Well that's a loser.

[B]

No. And look, the key thing they have to do, just the last point is you want consumer inflation not to spike, deregulate the crap out of all the industries so as to not let supply chains get constrained. That's what they need to do. And I don't know if they're going to succeed but because if, if you try, if you hand money to people and don't do anything about the supply, inflation is 100 certain, certain.

[A]

Maybe they just want to time it.

[B]

You know, I mean that's what I think they're gonna do. I think that's exactly what they're gonna do.

[A]

Drop a little stimulus at the right moment, markets trend up and then we get out of the inflation spike.

[B]

If you can make, make employment or people happy in September, October and have inflation not happen until the end of November, hey, you know, you, you succeeded. I mean honestly, that's intensely cynical, Scott, but I think we all kind of believe it. You could push that button. They would push it.

[A]

Yeah, they're pushing that button. Recessions are illegal, as Matt Hogan said. Guys, it's 10:09. Thank, we covered it all. I'm looking forward to using my stimulus check for the down payment of my 50 year mortgage and otherwise we will be back of course, next Monday for yet another macro Monday. And I'll be back tomorrow with Andrew and Tillman. Thank you, gentlemen. Another absolutely great Macro Monday. Have a great day.

[B]

Let's do. Let's do.