
Bitcoin Bounce Or Bull Trap? Has The Crypto Sell-Off Ended?
Loading summary
Scott Melker
Is the bitcoin bottom in or is this yet another bull trap in the crypto market? In a larger correction, are we even still in a bull market? Many would argue that bitcoin's going all the way down to 70,000. While some think that that's hyperbolic and we're probably just about to go back up. There's nobody better to unpack everything happening with the crypto market than my friend Matt Hogan from Bitwise. You guys don't want to miss this show. Let's go. Let's do. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe the channel hit that like button. I'm the wolf of all streets. But the way that crypto is going, there's going to be no streets left to wolf. Bitcoin street seems kind of fine. The other streets. War zone. War zone.
Matt Hogan
Matt, it's, it's been, it's been a rough few days. It really has been. Yeah. Bitcoin street seems fine. Seems like it's bottoming out here. But in the altcoin space, it's just been brutal. I think the world is coming to realize, Scott, that the future of finance is not built on meme coins. And we're watching. Yeah. I'm telling you, I think that's what.
Scott Melker
You heard it here first, people. Libra. Libra will not be the global reserve currency.
Matt Hogan
Not going to be the global reserve currency. It's not going to be Melania. Yeah, I think that's the story here. It is brutal out there. I think we will find a bottom, but the pain could persist for a little bit.
Scott Melker
Yeah. When we say it's been a couple bad days here, actually from your side, the pond that you play in, which is obviously the ETFs and the institutional side, you could argue it's been the worst days that we've had in 13 to 14 months of these trading US Bitcoin ETFs see record daily outflow of over 930 million as carry trade loses shines in the 10 year treasury note. So almost a billion in a day. I think there was 500 million collectively across all the products Monday and 500 million last week across all products. This is specific to bitcoin, but they actually, I think nailed it here on CoinDesk, which was going to be the point I wanted to discuss, which is this is likely largely the carry trade unwinding.
Matt Hogan
That's exactly right. You have to think of ETF holders In really three buckets. There's hedge funds who are doing the carry trade. They're buying the ETF and then shorting the futures. They're institutional investors who are long only and then they're retail investors who do a large amount of things. Based on what we can see from our internal flows, from our customer conversations, et cetera, this looks like it's that top third that's really coming out of the market. The size of the carry trade, the profitability of the carry trade has just collapsed over the last few weeks and as a result those people are exiting the market. These other two buckets, institutional is doing great. We're still seeing net flows there. Retail is doing just fine as best we can see, although it's hard to put your finger on that pulse. So I think they had it exactly right. This is the carry trade evaporating. That's notable. The fact that the carry is shrinking is notable, but that's what's driving the flows. From my perspective, we haven't seen the long investors sort of give up on the market yet and capitulate. I don't think that will happen. I actually don't think that will happen, but I don't think it's happened yet if it is going to happen.
Scott Melker
I haven't even actually checked to the basis of what the carry trade would be right now or why it's generally unwinding. But as I said here loses shine to the 10 year treasury note. So I'm assuming there's less yield in playing this trade than there is simply buying Treasuries at this point, which is why you could argue this is happening. For those who don't understand, when you play the carry trade, we've explained it here before, you basically have to buy spot. You short the future because it's in contango, it's at a higher price and you collect the yield in between as the time passes. It's pretty much free money if you know what you're doing and you're not doing it with GBTC 40% premium, which is what collapsed the market last time. But this time instead of people buying spot bitcoin, they're buying ETFs to play this trade because these are institutions that are doing it. So that means that when they just want to unwind the trade, it has nothing to do with their bullishness or bearishness. They literally just have to sell those ETFs that they bought to participate.
Matt Hogan
That's exactly right. And this has been going on since the ETFs launched hedge funds. If you look at the 13F filing, Scott, you can see the top holders are Millennium and other hedge funds. Those aren't mostly long only people punting on Bitcoin going to a million. Those are people printing this carry trade off and on a levered basis. And that can come in and out of the market. We have seen it decline in the past. If you look at historical periods where there have been significant outflows from Bitcoin, it's often that carry trade was sort of unwinding and it will be back, it's not gone forever. So there'll be a few, you know, billion dollar days where we'll be all excited about the inflows. If we're not worried about these outflows, we should equally not be excited about those inflows in the future. This is a trade that comes and goes over time.
Scott Melker
We've seen quite a few iterations of this, right? I kind of mentioned the Widowmaker which was gbtc, but that's because it was this trade, but with GBTC at a premium and then GBTC quickly went to a, you know, a discount. So that was a like 40 to 50% wipeout right there in a couple of months. But we also saw this with MicroStrategy which actually sent the price of Bitcoin way down not that long ago because people were shorting MicroStrategy and buying underlying Bitcoin and then MicroStrategy short squeezed and they had to sell their bitcoin to cover. I think that sent us from like 90 to 80, I can't remember which even period it was 70 to 60, whatever it was. But you could see it.
Matt Hogan
I mean it's very obvious, it's 100% true. I mean the oldest story in crypto is people thinking they've found a free money glitch and then that blowing up and us going into existential despair because the market pulls back 15% as that unwinds. We've seen it in multiple iterations. Microstrategy was an example. The carry trade unwind is not quite blowing up, but it does disappear. From my perspective you have to ask yourself, has anything fundamentally changed about the Bitcoin story? And I think nothing has fundamentally changed about the bitcoin story. Institutions are still buying, governments are still looking at it, Michael Saylor is still aping into it. Those are the long term drivers. But the short term news is bad. It's a short term news bad, long term news good. And when you have that set up, the short term News can win for a while. And I think that's what we're seeing in the market, at least on bitcoin.
Scott Melker
So when we talk about short term news being bad, before we get into the obvious, long term news being good, what news do you point out there? For me, it's the Buybit hack. And I spoke to my friend at, I'm not allowed to say where he works. I said it rhymes with shit, Adele. But I spoke with him and he said that Monday morning Wall street woke up and found out there was a hack they didn't know all weekend. And so that was certainly part of it. Still absorbing Trump and Libra Token to some degree, although it's not so much on the radar, but kind of making a few people and institutions a little bit exhausted or just skeptical of the market as a whole. And then just, you know, the news of Trump relaunching, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico and such, and just general market uncertainty.
Matt Hogan
Yeah, I think there's general market negativity. Right. And we'll see what happens tonight when Nvidia reports earnings. But I think, I think on the Bybit piece, I think the killer piece there was that Lazarus tried to launder the funds through Pump Fund, because I think that spells really the sort of existential death of the meme coin craze. If you have Melania and you have Libra and then you have it being used as a laundering facility, even in this permissive regulatory environment, people are not going to look favorably on North Korean hackers finding a way to launder stolen eth. That's not going to do well. So I think there's going to be real pressure on the meme coin space. I think that's why you've seen Solana pull back so much and sort of lead us down this path. And we have to be honest that outside of bitcoin, the only real story that was sort of present and easily felt over the last six months that was positive was the Meme Coin story. It was injecting capital into the market, it was injecting energy into the market. And I think people are writing that effectively to zero right now. And as a result, we need another story outside of bitcoin. I think those stories exist. I think you can see green shoots in defi. I think you see green shoots and stablecoin growth, but they aren't as present and as vibrant as Meme Coins. And I think the trio of Melania, Libra and Lazarus through bybit, I think it just means that story is basically over. Of course there'll be bumps. It'll come back. But I think people are writing it to zero the same way we wrote ICOs to zero in 2018. Right. Once those got crushed. I think that's what's happening now.
Scott Melker
And I think people have also been surprised at how effectively Lazarus has been able to actually continue to launder this eth on an international stage. Last I checked, and I haven't even checked this morning, it was 4 or 500 million they had already been able to sell. While everybody's watching.
Matt Hogan
Yeah.
Scott Melker
It might be up to 7 or 800 by now for all I know. But, you know, they're still finding ways to get rid of this stuff, even with every analyst and on chain sleuth on the planet watching them.
Matt Hogan
Yeah. And everyone knowing it's them. That's the incredible fact. And you can't imagine that that's going to stand. Right. I know we've seen, you know, the SEC pullback from Coinbase. We've seen the SEC pullback from Uniswap. We're seeing real regulatory relief. We're seeing real legislative process, but that doesn't mean that anything goes right. And people aren't going to look favorably upon this because it is happening in plain daylight. And I do think there's going to be like, there's going to be a negative second story here on this in three or six months when people take a hard look at this and try to tighten that up.
Scott Melker
Yeah. Speaking of the market, you know, whether the sell off has ended or continues, one of your. One of your amazing coworkers, Andre, I think he's head of European research. Yeah, yeah. Who's awesome and comes on spaces all the time. This off, this article is referencing him. Bitcoin's Tuesday bloodbath was the bottom. Analyst says. So we kind of have the, like Arthur K. Arthur Hayes, who we all love, but he's never right. It's going to 70, 74. I spoke with Peter Brandt, the legendary chartist, yesterday on spaces. He thinks 75 is in the cards because we have a double top. That would still just be a 30% correction in a bitcoin bull market, which would be still shallow. But right now we're only at a 20% correction in this market. But Andre thinks the bottom's in. I think it's definitely possible.
Matt Hogan
I think it's in or close. I think it's in or close.
Scott Melker
Bottoming is a process. Bottoming is a time period. Not an exact point to me.
Matt Hogan
So. Yeah, no, that is right. I mean, the thing I've been thinking about, Scott, is you remember July, the bitcoin market sort of ripped up to, you know, to 72 and then fell back to about 55 in July. And we were all in existential panic at the time. We were worried about the German government selling bitcoin and the Mt. Gox distributions. I mean, these stories that just sound ridiculous to us, but we found our bottom there. We didn't fall back to 30 or 40 and we proceeded to rip up to 100k. If you look at the level of panic fear in the market right now, it is really high. I think if we get decent earnings out of traditional stocks over the next few days, I think the bottom could be in. If Nvidia comes in and has a terrible quarter and says Deep Sea has killed its business and it's going to go back to video games only, then I think it could be difficult on the downside. But yeah, Andre looks at a lot of statistical data. He thinks we're close to the bottom. I think that feels right. I'll take the over on 80, but we'll have to see.
Scott Melker
I mean, I just happen to be looking at charts and we've got bitcoin's RSI oversold on the daily for the first time since the last bottom in August. Right. I mean, exactly. And then I pulled up the fear and greed index and looked at it over time and we're at 21, which is extreme fear. And that's back to the lows from last September and August. So if you like, the bottom signals even mean reversion back to the upside. Fear and greed going to a normal place, RSI resetting. We should go back into the 90s here.
Matt Hogan
Even on a bounce, you would think that's exactly right. And there are a lot of sort of deribit options expiring at the end of the week. I think once we get clear of that, we'll probably see the bottoming. Oh, I bet this weekend will be pretty good. But again, that fear number compared to the reality of the fundamentals is just an incredible disparity to me. My good friend Avicil tweeted the other day, that opportunity is the difference between fundamentals and perception. As I look at the market right now, the perception is just through the floor. I mean, 20 on the fear and greed is absurd given what's happening in the market. We forgot that Abu Dhabi is buying, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars.
Scott Melker
500 million. So the sovereign wealth fund in a clip.
Matt Hogan
Yeah, that is exactly right.
Scott Melker
So, and they're not the only ones.
Matt Hogan
No. So I think. I think we'll get there. I bet we're closer to the bottom than. Than many people expect.
Scott Melker
Avichal from Electric Capital, I assume.
Matt Hogan
Yes. Yeah.
Scott Melker
That's a perfect unexpected segue to this news that crypto asset manager Bitwise bolsters balance sheet with 70 million equity raise. If you're wondering why I said that's perfect because it was led by Electric Capital, of whom he is the founder and CEO. But you've got some big participants here. Massmutual having capital Hot ventures, Parafi Capital. Listen, this has nothing to do with inflows or outflows, but the fact that you're able to go out and raise 70 million right now should tell people all they need to know about the appetite for. For exposure to crypto and specifically institutional crypto right now.
Matt Hogan
Yeah, we're really excited about this round and some of the names that are in there. I think it also speaks to what the largest institutional investors in the world see in terms of money flowing into the crypto market. Right. Remember, Bitwise is a crypto asset manager. Our business is built on institutions and family offices and financial advisors allocating to this space. And we have the MIT endowment and MassMutual, as you mentioned, and a who's who's list. Really a strong group of investors saying this is going to be a very big market. I of course hope that they're right, but we're really excited to have this firepower to continuing to do the education and product development work and sales meetings that is core of what Bitwise does.
Scott Melker
And it's just a huge number. And we were talking about your hands. We got you in the picture. 70 million. You were on your way out and they just caught you in the wrong moment.
Matt Hogan
Yeah, this is from a few years ago. We were at a smaller scale. No, it's really wonderful to have that kind of support. And we're an incredible growth phase. We're over 100 people now. And this is what helps us do the 20,000 meetings a year that we do talking to institutions about this space. So we're really excited to build from here.
Scott Melker
Yeah. I mean, taking a look at the fundamentally bullish news, Obviously you Raising 70 million is a signal, I think, for the entire market, as I said, in the institutional space. But I mean, it's a get bigger than Citadel coming in now. Everybody has their takes. I see people in the comments. Citadel's coming to short it down so that everybody can buy it cheap now. Did market makers. There's going to make a whole lot of money providing liquidity is what should happen here. And by the way, they can be agnostic as to their feelings about it, they can even hate it. They're going to do the thing that makes money.
Matt Hogan
That's exactly right. This is an incredible reminder that what we're seeing is the birth of a new asset class, which happens a couple times a century. You're seeing the largest financial firms in the world moving into this space. You can see it in the people who participated in our rounds. You can see it in blackrock going all in. Now we have Citadel. I'd remind people that a few years ago we were in the middle of FTX and people were wondering if this thing would exist. Now really, you have all the largest players in the market moving in and I think it's just going to continue. This will have mostly really strong positive impacts on the space. We're going to see liquidity get better. We're going to see arbitrage come in, we're going to see spreads come in. If you've been a bucket shop hedge fund making your money on arbitrage, your days are probably numbered. But for the rest of us who are going in and buying and selling major assets, particularly in large amounts, this is a strong net positive for my business. It's going to be helpful in terms of getting the execution and liquidity that we need.
Scott Melker
I would argue something else that's going to be helpful is a thawing regulatory environment. I got to give so much credit to the SEC right now, which are words I wasn't sure I was ever going to be able to say again. Right? Because listen, we didn't know what this would factually look like and we certainly didn't know that Trump would win and that purse would basically end up running a committee. But they have been on a heater of dropping enforcement action. The latest uniswap just, I think two days ago it was Robinhood Coinbase at the tail end of last week. It's over. These guys are not coming after crypto anymore. They might go after criminals and fraudsters who happen to use crypto, but they are not coming after companies in crypto anymore. This one is really, really big.
Matt Hogan
That one is really, really big. That was probably the Coinbase, I think was a fairly easy case. They were making a lot of progress in court. This was a shot across the bow of all of defi and to see them pull back from it is really heartening to see and really to me points the direction that we're going. I'd also just note a lot of people are thinking ahead to when we have clear regulation that allows Uniswap to enter the traditional securities markets and all these things. That's all wonderful to think about, but just the relief from not having to battle your regulator as your number one business objective is going to lead to incredible innovation from the likes of coinbase, from the likes of Uniswap's Labs, and from all these other people that people are taking relief off from. Xrp, et cetera. It's hard to overstate how challenging it is to build a business and innovate when the national regulator is suing you and has knocking on your door every day. I think just that relief is an incredible bullish story. I look at that and then I look at a $1.6 billion hack where people got their money back, or a meme coin that failed, and one is just so much bigger than the other. It really makes this look like an opportunity. So I love the Uniswap news, I love the Coinbase news. The SEC is delivering on sort of the hopes that we had when we had this transition. And it makes me really excited.
Scott Melker
What are the other sort of fundamental tailwinds that you are seeing right now, even amongst this dip? I mean, we've had obviously this story of wirehouses slowly coming online, people gaining access. We know that that is all happening. Is there anything else glaring that you're looking at right now? I mean, like, I don't. It's just. It's crazy to me that people are disappointed, I think, with what's been happening in the Trump administration to some degree. And you look at every single person is a bitcoiner. They're just mad that he hasn't said Bitcoin strategic reserve. I don't really. I don't really get it, because, I mean, nothing is better than what we just described at the sec. Sec, we got cftc, Treasury, Commerce. Literally everyone's a bitcoiner.
Matt Hogan
It's ridiculously bullish. We're going to look back at a year and going to laugh at the fact that we were worried at this particular moment. For bitcoin specifically. The story is just so simple. The market producing 165,000 bitcoin a year, ETFs are buying half a million, corporations are buying 300,000. Governments will probably buy something like 500,000 to a million over the next year or two. Those numbers are just bigger than the supply. I think that's the easiest story, maybe the easiest investing setup that I'VE ever seen. I think it's the single best time in history to buy bitcoin from a risk adjusted return basis outside of bitcoin.
Scott Melker
Because it's not going to zero anymore.
Matt Hogan
It's not going to zero. We've chopped the left tail. So much has to happen for my bullish thesis to not come in Bitcoin. It's hard for me to imagine. The other area that I just can't keep my eye off is Defi. I look at Stablecoin AUM at an all time high. Tokenized real world assets at an all time high. The relief to platforms like Uniswap from the sec. I look at Jupiter throwing the fee switch. Uniswap moving to its chain. The Defi market has demonstrated its works. The technology works. Technology is incredible. The lending is incredible, the staking is incredible, the trading is incredible. But we've had two big problems. One is for regulatory reasons it could only really exist in the crypto casino. It couldn't expand beyond that. Then two, for regulatory reasons we had to have tokens that had no value that were linked to governance. And when you combine those two, of course it was constrained. But if you look at things like the Jupiter fee switch and the amount of revenue they're now generating, or you look at things like Unichain and imagine how that tokenomics plays out and look at Stablecoins going to a trillion plus dollars, I just think that's a sector that is ready for an enormous bull market that people have forgotten about. But every fundamental statistic I look at suggests that it's rounded and coming right up the curve. So I'm spending some time thinking about that.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I interviewed Stani from AAVE two days ago. It'll be out on Sunday. It's one of the long form interviews and I was actually pretty astounded when I was doing quick research for that on the metrics of Defi and specifically AAVE right now. I mean they're at all time high. Everything like wallets, amount TVL locked in there, everything. And nobody talks about it. And his point was. Because Defi now isn't exciting now meme coins are exciting. Defi is boring because it works and you can just kind of put money in there and make money. What happens when institutions find out about that?
Matt Hogan
Exactly. And what happens when that market can expand beyond the confines of Defi? It's just, it's so rare in crypto for the fundamentals to outpace the speculation. But that's what's happening in Defi. We've just forgotten about it because it's been dead for two plus years. But everything as you mentioned is, that's.
Scott Melker
The thing, the tokens are dead but defi is thriving.
Matt Hogan
Defi is thriving. And I think the tokens are going to come back. I think they're going to figure out ways to drive token value now that we have a more reasonable regulatory environment. They had to have sort of spooky action at a distance tokens and I think you're seeing them start to turn on fee switches and turn on other approaches to monetization. And when you get rapid all time highs in TVL and use and real economic drivers of the tokens, I think this market could move really fast once people realize what's going on.
Scott Melker
I think we both agree and continue to say that stablecoins have been the killer app as you mentioned, for crypto. And as long as those are going up, that means there's a ton of new money obviously coming into the ecosystem as a whole. Does anything about the, the regulation being proposed concern you? Right, because we have, you know, Hagerty on one side with Genius and Lummis saying we got to pass this to do this. I think people would rationally be like they might get it better than Maxine Waters proposing the SPF version on the other side maybe. Right. But stable coins are the low hanging fruit. I think we will see regulation. But if for some reason that regulation says you have to be a licensed United States federal bank to issue or utilize a stablecoin that could be really bad for the market. If tether is effectively or there's even been people talking about tether not being allowed to invest in treasuries as a result of this. I mean it would be so stupid.
Matt Hogan
It's so stupid. You know, if you go back, you know, we talked sort of right around the Trump administration coming in. We talked about the biggest risks in this market and what I said was the biggest risk is politicians messing it up because they're human. And that's exactly. I'm terrified. I'm really unhappy that we're seeing that being pushed. I mean I saw Jeremy Allaire speaking today about, you know, these, these dollar based stablecoins having to register and be located in the United States, they shouldn't get a free pass. That kind of poor regulation would probably be more damaging than. No, regulation is my.
Scott Melker
Great for him.
Matt Hogan
It would be great for him.
Scott Melker
I love Jeremy. I love Jeremy, but that's talking his book. He is, he's saying, hey, let's let us Play and kick tether out.
Matt Hogan
That's exactly right. And also just from an American perspective, we don't want to ban the 15th largest holder from buying Treasuries. Someone has to buy our debt. So I think we need to get reasonable regulation. I don't want to see the crypto industry try to fight for their slice of the pie when we should be focusing on is growing the pie 100x from where we are. So I do worry what we're seeing in that market sort of classical Washington politicking and it's not pretty.
Scott Melker
Before I let you go, I think we all agree whether the Bitcoin bottom is 74 to 85 or 90 wherever we end up here, that we all want to own bitcoin long term. Is there anything that fundamentally is worrying you about the altcoin market, seeing it perform so poorly? I could see an argument that the Solana top is in for this cycle even if there's a massive altcoin move. If people just get tired of memes, I don't know if they will or they won't. But and I'm not saying Solana doesn't have other fundamental use cases, I'm just saying it flew the highest, the earliest because of the Meme Coin casino.
Matt Hogan
Yeah, that's exactly right. The challenge for the sort of alt layer ones is that the fundamentals aren't going to catch up for a while. Right. The things we're talking about in defi real world assets, even Stablecoins, that sort of 10x growth in those markets is maybe 12 months out or 24 months out. That's going to take a while to happen. And I worry a little bit about the psychology of the market as the meme coin boom sort of dies a complete death, which is what I expect over the next few months. So there could still be some pain there. I think that's probably a long term opportunity. But look, I do make the analogy back to the regulators stomping on the neck of the ICO market and that sent us into a crypto winner for a long period of time. I don't think that's the case here because I think the bitcoin story is too strong and the defi story is too strong, but I think it's going.
Scott Melker
To wash itself out. To be honest. This is one of those self regulatory mechanisms that's beautiful to crypto. I think people just get tired of it. It kind of just becomes not it doesn't go away, but it becomes so much smaller that it doesn't. It's not the narrative.
Matt Hogan
I think that's right. I think that's right. But I do think the hangover for Solana and some of the hangover for some of the alt layer ones could continue for a while until we see those sort of real world assets, stablecoins defi really perk up. But for me that's just an opportunity. Right. If I'm investing for the next five years then I'm dollar cost averaging into the weakness and making sure I build my position during this short term. Sort of psychologically driven pullback.
Scott Melker
Absolutely agree. Guys, give Matt a follow on X. Always appreciate you having you here. Congratulations on the raise. It's awesome. I didn't honestly I didn't know about it until I showed up for the show today and like started opening articles. So congrats on that. You guys keep a good secret. The next one, they're not going to be able to fit your hands on.
Matt Hogan
The screen from your lips, man. I hope so.
Scott Melker
Well, congratulations on that and thank you as always for being here, Matt.
Matt Hogan
Thanks, Scott.
Scott Melker
All right everyone, we have no Chris today on the back half of the show because I have to go on yahoo. Finance in 10 minutes. I'm going to put on a jacket like Matt and try to look professional and talk about the crypto crash from the other side. But of course before we do that, it's Wednesday, which means we're talking about aptos. You can see it way up there in the corner. Look, if I take this off, you can see then I can point at it right there. I think that works. So yeah, huge news coming here from aptos. As you can see, enabling the next unicorns on the chain build for billion user scale. The TLDR here is that the Aptos foundation is committing fresh ecosystem funding, projecting more than 200 million in new DeFi grants and investments and expand the operations to enable the next generation of unicorn founders to grow on the world's fastest Most builder friendly L1 built for scale. We talk about the metrics in Defi, talked about metrics in aave, all of that exhibited best on Aptos that sees every single month a massive increase in usage TVL massive increase in wallets. Massive. I've showed you all of it. Well now injecting $200 million into their ecosystem to build things that are not meme coin casinos thank God is really amazing here. Love to see it. You guys should check out aptos if you're developers consider developing on Aptos and just take a good look at everything that they're doing. Thank you, guys. I do need to run. Got to go on the Yahoo. Finance TV thing. Cope on behalf of the industry as usual. Until tomorrow, guys. See you then. Bye. Let's dope. Let's go.
Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin Bounce Or Bull Trap? Has The Crypto Sell-Off Ended?"
Release Date: February 26, 2025
Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Matt Hogan, Bitwise
In the episode titled "Bitcoin Bounce Or Bull Trap? Has The Crypto Sell-Off Ended?", host Scott Melker engages in a deep dive with Matt Hogan from Bitwise to dissect the current state of the cryptocurrency market. The conversation navigates through Bitcoin's potential bottoming, the dynamics of ETFs and carry trades, the tumultuous altcoin landscape, regulatory challenges, and the promising developments in DeFi and institutional investments.
Scott Melker opens the discussion by questioning whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom or if the current downturn is merely a bull trap within a larger market correction. He references the polarized opinions on Bitcoin's trajectory, with some predicting it might tumble to $70,000, while others remain optimistic about an imminent rebound.
Notable Quote:
Matt Hogan concurs, highlighting the contrasting behaviors within the Bitcoin and altcoin spaces. He points out that while Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing, altcoins are experiencing severe downturns.
Notable Quote:
A significant portion of the discussion centers on the role of Bitcoin ETFs and the associated carry trades. Scott delves into the recent massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, attributing this trend to the unwinding of carry trades as the attractiveness of the 10-year Treasury notes overtakes.
Notable Quotes:
Matt elaborates on the three main categories of ETF holders: hedge funds engaging in carry trades, institutional long-only investors, and retail investors. He emphasizes that the current outflows are primarily from the carry trade strategies losing their profitability.
The conversation shifts to the impact of regulatory developments on the crypto market. Scott mentions the recent Buybit hack and its implications, along with broader market uncertainties influenced by political factors like Trump's policies and tariff announcements.
Notable Quotes:
Matt highlights the negative sentiment resulting from high-profile hacks and misuse of crypto platforms, suggesting that these events are dampening enthusiasm for meme coins and pushing the market towards more substantive sectors like DeFi and stablecoins.
A pivotal moment in the episode is the discussion about Bitwise's successful $70 million equity raise, led by Electric Capital. Scott points out that this substantial funding round underscores the strong institutional appetite for crypto exposure despite the current market downturn.
Notable Quotes:
Matt emphasizes that the funding reflects confidence from major institutional players and is poised to bolster Bitwise’s efforts in education, product development, and expanding institutional engagement.
The duo discusses various analyses and indicators suggesting that Bitcoin might be nearing its market bottom. Scott references Andre from Bitwise’s analysis, which posits that Bitcoin's recent downturn could represent the bottom, drawing parallels to past market cycles.
Notable Quotes:
They consider technical indicators like RSI and the Fear and Greed Index, both suggesting extreme fear in the market, which historically precedes bullish rebounds. Matt remains optimistic, noting that fundamental factors like corporate and sovereign investments in Bitcoin continue to underpin its long-term strength.
Addressing the struggling altcoin market, Matt expresses concern over the viability of meme coins and alt-tier layer ones like Solana. However, he spots a silver lining in the resilience and potential of DeFi.
Notable Quotes:
He underscores that while meme coins are losing traction, DeFi platforms, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets are reaching new heights, positioning themselves for significant growth once regulatory hurdles are navigated.
The hosts delve into the precarious regulatory environment surrounding stablecoins. They discuss proposed regulations that could impose stringent licensing requirements on stablecoin issuers, potentially stifling innovation and market growth.
Notable Quotes:
Both agree that misguided regulatory actions could have detrimental effects on the stablecoin market and, by extension, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Nonetheless, they advocate for balanced regulation that fosters growth rather than imposes crippling restrictions.
Concluding the episode, Scott and Matt maintain an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin and the institutional crypto sector. They anticipate that as fear diminishes and fundamental strengths become more apparent, the market will witness a substantial rebound. Additionally, the advancements in DeFi and institutional engagements signal a mature and resilient cryptocurrency landscape poised for future growth.
Matt reiterates his bullish stance, highlighting the robust fundamental drivers of Bitcoin and DeFi, and encourages investors to consider long-term strategies amidst short-term volatility.
Notable Quote:
The episode concludes with Scott briefly mentioning upcoming topics, including significant developments from Aptos, emphasizing the continuous evolution and expansion of the crypto ecosystem.
Key Takeaways:
Final Thoughts:
Scott Melker and Matt Hogan provide a comprehensive analysis of the current cryptocurrency landscape, balancing concerns over regulatory hurdles and market volatility with optimism rooted in strong fundamental trends and institutional support. Their insights offer valuable perspectives for both seasoned investors and newcomers seeking to navigate the evolving world of crypto.