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NLW
Bitcoin is sitting at $112,000 support right on one of the biggest news days that we have for market. Obviously Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about to give his speech at Jackson Hole. We break down 112. A lot of people looking for 100,000 next. I happen to believe that this might be a really strong support and it's going to be much ado about nothing very soon. We're going to discuss what's happening in Jackson Hole and everything else that happened this week in crypto news and markets with NLW here on the Friday 5. Let's go, let's go. Let's do. Good morning, everybody, and happy Jackson Hole Day. To those who celebrate, this is the super bowl of financial markets. Jerome Powell going to give a speech and we're going to deeply analyze his tone. If he sneezes in the wrong direction, which way he coughs and every single gesture that he makes. It's Pal Day. Are you celebrating? How are you. I should say, how are you celebrating? Because I know you're celebrating.
Co-host
Yeah, I mean, listen, it's, it's interesting because you can really, you know, it is actually a, a useful device to go back and sort of see how each of these speeches has captured kind of the moment. They, they do really provide an interesting indicator of where things were. What's different about this time, obviously, is that this is the last one for him. And so, you know, there's basically less, less of a reason. It doesn't make as much sense for him to try to lay out some big new kind of plan for the future, given that he's not there to implement it. So we don't exact what we're going to get.
NLW
Yeah, I mean, is he going to, you know, throw a grenade? Explosions in the background as he casually walks away into the sunset like a Hollywood movie. You know, a lot of people, I think, are looking for him to take his shots at Trump. I don't think that's his style. I don't think he's going to do that at all, even underhandedly. Obviously. I don't think he's going to be like Trump's a dick, anything like that. But, you know, he obviously has his sort of last opportunity, as you said, here to stay the course, I guess, or change nothing and kind of fly against the popular sentiment of what he should be doing.
Co-host
Yeah, I mean, look, I think that if, if, you know, there's all sorts of prediction markets. I was just looking at, at Calcium Polymarket to see what people thought he was going to Say, and it's all Stu, it's all betting around like how many times he says, you know, inflation and things like that. It's not really substantive. Although I will say people do not expect him to talk about crypto at all. I think it's just 6 cents trade for that one. I know, right. But I think that the, the, the sort of like obvious play for him based on everything we've ever seen from Powell is to basically slightly try to tamp down the assuredness that the market has that we're getting a rate cut in September to give himself a little bit more, more breathing space.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
So much so that you're already seeing that kind of come in right now. I think the CME Fed Watch has the odds of a rate cut down to 70% or just a little under 70%.
NLW
It was 100 last week. I'm old enough to remember when 100% meant something was definitely going to happen.
Co-host
Yeah, on, on, on the prediction markets, it's down to 60 in both cases, 5,960. And that's exactly what Powell wants. Powell hates being boxed into, you know, the markets, sort of preempting his policy. Now the flip side is we could get a little bit of a surprise and see a legacy speech.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
Where he tries to articulate, you know, something that the, that the future Fed chair should watch out for or something like that. Like it's not outside the realm of possibility. I think it is pretty impossible for him to throw grenades and lob bombs, but it's not impossible that he tries to sort of use this as a last statement to, you know, remind people or sort of, you know, have, have his sort of, his view felt an echo through the ages.
NLW
Yeah, he might try to get that JFK or MLK quote in there that he's remembered for. That gives him a strong legacy. We'll see. But I mean, to your point about predictive markets generally, even amongst Fed governors now, there's very lukewarm, certainly no consensus that there's going to be rate cuts in September and markets really have been pricing in that. That was effectively a foregone conclusion. But we're at this place now where you get speeches from multiple Fed governors and they're in no way have this consensus of what's going to happen.
Co-host
Yeah, the last week has been weird. It's like the entire sort of, you know, business cycle, the normal business cycle of the summer has been hyper compressed into one week. We've had markets absolutely freaking out about complete non news when it comes To AI repricing everything wildly. Like the sort of stuff that happens over an extended couple month period, usually in July and August, is now all happening in like one week, which is adding to this weird sort of sense of trepidation and volatility. It's almost like, you know, they, everyone forgot it was summer up until, you know, five days ago and, and now we're trying to catch up.
NLW
I mean, that was my literal message to you was like we finally have one of those slow weeks. But then, you know, we have the slow week and Friday hits on Jackson Hole. So I guess slow is relative ver previous cycles. There's a lot more happening in Jackson Hole beyond just this speech. Obviously. We have the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, 2025. This was presented by Salt Anthony Scaramucci. Interesting place and interesting time to go and do a blockchain summit. This wasn't really so heavily on my radar, but when you and I discussed show notes and topics, you said you could do hours and hours on everything that happened here.
Co-host
Yeah, it's, you know, whatever Powell decides to use this speech for. It's clear that the Washington sort of economic establishment decided to use the Blockchain Symposium to really reinforce the sort of deep integration of crypto and the financial system. We had a couple different Fed governors who spoke and importantly, the, you know, the, the, the conversation has shifted away from just being about sort of the, the need for, for, you know, quality and even permissive regulation into even. There was a whole discussion of how the Fed should use crypto rails that embrace these things. I mean, it's very clearly a sort of another inflection point moment past which we are, or kind of moving into a new era, I think, of integration for, for crypto.
NLW
Yeah. I didn't get a chance to listen to many of the speeches, but as you said, they obviously took the opportunity to talk about all of the things that could happen in the future for this industry. And obviously Lummis is from Wyoming. This week we got the announcement, which we don't even have as one of our main topics, that Wyoming launching Frontier Stablecoin, which I actually think is a relatively big story, that a state is launching a stablecoin. And then of course, Lummis also saying we're going to get market structure by 2026. Actually, 2026 almost seems bearish from what we've heard before, because we were supposed to be talking about it for August and September, and that's clearly not happening yet for, for clarity. But she's pretty, pretty convicted that this is gonna happen.
Co-host
Yeah. I mean, the big. So, you know, we got a commitment to a timeline. As much as a politician commit to a timeline, it's not obviously in her control. So. So that. That part you kind of have to take with a grain of salt. What was more interesting is that we got a lot more information around how the Senate seems to be thinking about their bill versus the House bill. And basically what Lummis said was that the House had done a good job to get real bipartisan support for this thing. So the Senate was probably going to lean pretty heavily on their version of the bill. On the. On the House's version of the bill versus the Senate's version of the bill, which. That was the big question coming out. There were sort of, you know, these fundamentally different definitions of how to handle the whole securities question. And it. And it seems, at least from where we're sitting now, at least from what Lummis said, that they're really going to lean on the. On the sort of the House approach, which, you know, hold aside the debates on right or wrong. It's an interesting. You know, it's clear that they care about the actually getting this thing through if they're kind of making a calculation on path of least resistance to do so.
NLW
Yeah. And it seems like we still have this sentiment that we need to strike while the iron's hot. We're already starting to see a lot of action ramping up towards midterms and seemingly some fear that we might not have the same environment after midterms as we have now for patching legislation. One of the other stories this week that we didn't choose was obviously the Winkleville wins choosing to give, I think, $25 million to a new super PAC. So clearly, the crypto lobby is ramping up to make sure that we still have an environment for passing legislation if this doesn't get done quickly.
Co-host
Yeah, I think that it is the correct. It's the correct mindset to operate under the assumption that past the midterms, we're dealing with a totally different set of circumstances. And so nothing can be taken for granted. And we have to move as fast as we can now. There's plenty of room. And the people who are in Washington, the crypto lobby, you know, as much as the. You know, our kind of. Our chattering class might have given up on the. On the left side of the aisle, certainly the crypto political lobby hasn't. They are out courting and working, and they will be working throughout this election cycle on pro crypto Dems, not just pro crypto Republicans. However, it would be ahistoric for these sort of the majorities that the Republicans have right now to persist. There's lots of reasons to think, just based on the normal kind of pattern of US political history, that there will be a bit of a rebound and Warren is still out there kicking and who knows what the resurgence of the anti crypto army could be. So I think that we have to operate under the assumption that things are relatively more difficult past the midterms, which is to say nothing of also just the fact that nothing gets done when people are campaigning for midterms, you know, so it's like it's a double whammy.
NLW
Yeah. People need to remember that Elizabeth Warren would become the chair of the Finance Senate Finance Committee once again. If somehow the Senate flips and we would have the queen of the anti crypto army leading the Senate Finance Committee, that could be a very, very bad situation. So you can't get complacent, I guess, if you're going to be lobbying and pushing for the industry in Washington. I think the next big story that we have here, kind of crazy, is Michael Saylor making some waves. I haven't dug too deeply into the fights that are clearly happening on X amongst the community community, but MicroStrategy strategy eases MSTR stock sale limits as shares hit lowest level since April we got basically, I think a 21% retrace on strategy this week and last I checked, bitcoin certainly not down 21% this week. So clearly this is something unique to microstrategy and strategy that is not dependent on the price of bitcoin. It is a nice compression of M Nav though, you'd have to imagine.
Co-host
Yeah. So I think it's really hard for me to parse out how much of this is strategy or microstrategy specific versus risk off. Now, to your point, the fact that bitcoin hasn't fallen that much suggest that at least some amount of it is specific to microstrategy. But if you look at sort of more broadly what's been happening with markets, a lot of the market's recent favorite stocks from a risks perspective have just been hammered.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
Palantir has been hammered, the AI stuff has been hammered. There's a real concern right now basically the way that the, the, the nervousness heading into the rate season is being manifest is everything that has been a pillar of stock market performance in a way that people have worried. Seems like it's way too much of a Pillar of stock market performance is being questioned right now.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
So, and I think that strategy obviously isn't quite the same as, you know, Nvidia when it comes to that, but it's certainly in this basket of things which have been, you know, willful outperformers throughout the course of the market that sort of seem to not care and have their own gravity vis a vis everything else that's happening in the markets. And so maybe some of its part, maybe some part of it is that the other part is that obviously, you know, the, the, the short of it is, you know, strategy had announced certain guidelines for themselves around when and how they couldn't buy based on, you know, sort of, you know, ratios. And then we're like, yeah, actually we're going to do whatever we want. Which is like, how have you been watching Sailor forever? Like, of course he's going to do whatever he wants. You know, like this is not surprising. But you know, look, when you're a public company and you say one thing and then you immediately kind of go and turn around and say, no, actually we're going to do it a different way. It causes nervousness, especially because, you know, micro strategy, for better or worse, are the, you know, exhibit a of, of a trend that people are both exuberant about right now, but also nervous that they might be wrong about or, or at least sort of like listening for when Musical Chairs ends. Let's put it on the whole, on the whole theme.
NLW
Yeah. In a vacuum, what he did doesn't concern me greatly. But when it's at a period where Bitcoin is sort of trading sideways, which we know without volatility is generally bad for microstrategy or anybody who's taking this approach to buying Bitcoin and then he changes it. There are going to be market participants who haven't dug too deeply into the strategy or are going to feel a bit panicked or they're going to feel like he's a bit panicked that he's making this decision, that he's basically like creating a floor because he's concerned.
Co-host
Yep, yep. So I don't know. I think I've had to watch the, the markets really closely recently. Not just for crypto related things, but because it is there, there's a huge explosion of sort of like the, you know, nervousness around AI narrative. And my read broadly is that one, as, as, as much as we have felt like we are not in a normal summer, we still are dealing with thin liquidity and sort of, you know, normal summer trading Environments. And two, there is so much narrative going on right now. Like all decisions are being made not based on fundamentals but based on, on narratives and conversations. You know, there's this unbelievably sort of, you know, weak MIT study in the AI space that said that 95% of pilots are failing based on inter. Like 52 executives and numerous analysts have cited that as a reason why, you know, why Paler and. And Nvidia are going like. It's just, it's a weird moment. So I, I think it's worth. This is like, you know, we haven't had to touch much grass this summer because there's been so much to actually do and pay attention to. It's a real good touch grass moment is sort of my, my tldr.
NLW
Yeah, I agree with that. And listen, I just happened to bring this up to the on spaces yesterday. Tomer Strollight mentioned this, but this is strategy. Variable rate perpetual stretch PRF share series. Yeah, one of MicroStrategy's many assets here. This was STRC, obviously the biggest IPO of the year. You might remember this trading now at 94.44. It was down to about 93. This is supposed to trade on par at 100. And this is an asset that gives I believe an 8 or 9% yield. So if you believe that MicroStrategy, this is just fud and it dropped for no reason. This thing you basically they have the incentive to push it back up to 100 and then you get the yield on top. This seems like it could be a really, really good trade if you believe that MicroStrategy is fine here. Yeah, I mean look, 6%, you know, 6, 7% and you should get the 9% yield on it.
Co-host
Yeah, look, the, the. In moments like this, the touch grass is a really reasonable approach. The, you know, the be greedy when others are fearful is also, you know, long term historic wisdom. You can get caught without your shirt on. But you know, for those who, for those who've got the, got the long term conviction there, there are not a lot of better moments than this, I guess.
NLW
You know. I guess you know, as they say, when the, when the tide goes out, you can see who's swimming naked, maybe you can just be the one stealing the clothes from those.
Co-host
Yeah, exactly.
NLW
On the beach. So the next story that we have here, really interesting actually in context of everything that's been going on with Romans Storm, is that we have some Clarity from the U.S. department of justice saying writing code without bad intent is not a crime. Making that Clear. This is one of the biggest talking points that we've had for years. Obviously we have Samurai Wallet guys just effectively pleading guilty. Roman Storm being charged in one of the three. And it seems like the DOJ is saying what they did is fine. So I, you know, we have this really kind of conflicted moment is obviously good news, but I'm not sure that the courts got the memo.
Co-host
Yeah, I mean, look, this is one of those, the, there's a difference between an administration and the representatives of an administration saying a thing and trying to articulate it and trying to sort of like influence policy and it being shrined, you know, in law and the judicial process. And, you know, I think that if you are a developer, every sort of statement like that one is helpful and we want more of them. The more that that can become sort of like the norm, the better. But it's still, I don't think anyone's sort of looking at that and saying, okay, great, now I can go, you know, do the thing that I was going to do without any concern. You know, it's, it's, this is going to, I, I can't imagine this ever being a fully resolved issue, frankly, in the US it's just always going to be some amount of gray area for, for interpretation.
NLW
Maybe if you're Roman Storm, though, you're sitting there thinking, my appeal just got more bullish.
Co-host
No, 100%. I mean, look, it's, that's why it's, it's one of those things where, you know, you neither want to overstate how important it is in terms of actual practical implications, but you don't want to understate the significance of, you know, leading officials coming out and saying a thing that we've wanted, you know, officials to embody, to embrace as policy. So it's, you know, it's, it's entirely 100% bullish. It's just how kind of positive is its actual impact? That's, that's the only thing.
NLW
Yeah. How much will it end up mattering in the individual cases? And the final story we have today, China weighs yuan back stablecoins and major policy shift. China's cabinet will review a roadmap that includes yuan pegged stablecoins to bolster yuan internationalization. Sources told Reuters. This is really interesting to me because it seems obvious and they've already been piloting and using a one central bank digital currency for years. So how is their policy to not have stablecoins if they have a central bank digital currency?
Co-host
I think it's, the difference is is how much control they're willing to give up for the, for sort of the private sector to do the work of digital yuan ification of the world.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
Like that's really the question. China is watching the US Dollar have its, you know, its best long term resurgence potential created because of stable coins.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
You know, as much as people talk about what's going to take down the dollar as a, as a sort of an international, you know, the sort of currency, currency of the world, it's stable coins are arguably the thing that is extending its dominance as the world's reserve currency.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
When you have people who have, you know, used 20 bills forever as their favorite currency and all of a sudden they have access to a proxy that's, you know, easier to get. Works just as well. Everyone accepts it. It means that they don't really have to look elsewhere.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
And it's very clear that stablecoins are now a geopolitical force.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
The US has gotten that memo, you know, the, and, and I think China is as well. And, and you know, with China, it's just a question of, like I said, how much they're willing to give up control.
Guest Analyst
Right.
Co-host
With a, with a digital yuan, the actual cbdc, they have control of the supply, the issuance, the redemption, all that. You know, if they allow or if they sort of encourage private digital yuans, you know, in the same way that there's a, you know, a circle equivalent or whatever, there's some control that's lost. But the, the trade off is that the influence of their currency might be a lot broader if they allow that to happen. So I think that that's sort of the, the, the calculation right now.
NLW
Yeah, it's not going to work. I mean, when is a stable coin backed by anything other than US Dollars gained any traction anywhere? I get why they're doing it, and you're 100% correct. But that doesn't to me mean that anybody's going to all of a sudden want to use Chinese currency.
Co-host
Yeah, Supply in this case, I do not think creates demand. But you know, there's, there's also things that China can do to influence sort of adoption of, you know, their currency in this ways. And who, who knows, like what sort of international trade kind of, you know, pressure they can put on to use whatever, you know, like there's crazy things.
NLW
That could happen, small plastic toys, unless you transact in yuan back stablecoins. So we're not sending them. It's not happening. All right. I think we unpacked everything this is I think our slowest week. But the reality is we get to see what happens in Wyoming today and that's going to probably dictate next week or at least the next three days worth of news and how people interpret it. I think the big takeaway from today's stream, as you said, is just go touch grass.
Co-host
Yep, that's what I'm going to do.
NLW
All right. Yeah, me too guys. Go check out obviously the breakdown, everything else NLW has going on. It's funny, I see people like in the comments sometimes referring to like the AI guy is here. And I've just never refer. I've never thought of you as the AI guy. You were the crypto guy before you were the guy.
Co-host
Yeah, times keep changing, man.
NLW
Like I said, it's a little Asian girl. Why not both? Anyways, that's what we got for you today. We will see you next week for the next Friday. Five. Thanks, man.
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Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: NLW (Nathaniel Whittemore), Co-host, Guest Analyst
In this lively episode of the Friday Five, Scott Melker (with NLW and a co-host) dives into the market tension surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech. The discussion explores whether Bitcoin’s $112,000 support will hold amidst rate cut speculation, the rapidly evolving regulatory landscape in crypto, MicroStrategy’s recent drama, groundbreaking DOJ comments on code, and China weighing yuan-backed stablecoins. The mood is witty but analytical—a “touch grass” kind of week packed with big news for crypto and macro watchers.
Timestamps 00:01–05:25
Timestamps 05:25–08:41
Timestamps 08:41–10:27
Timestamps 10:27–16:37
Timestamps 16:38–18:50
Timestamps 18:50–21:40
On Powell’s Style:
“If he sneezes in the wrong direction, which way he coughs and every single gesture that he makes. It’s Pal Day. Are you celebrating?” ([00:08], NLW)
On Regulatory Urgency:
“People need to remember that Elizabeth Warren would become the chair of the Senate Finance Committee… the queen of the anti-crypto army… that could be a very, very bad situation.” ([10:27], NLW)
On MicroStrategy’s Moves:
“He changes it, there are going to be market participants who haven’t dug too deeply… feel a bit panicked or… like he’s a bit panicked...” ([13:32], NLW)
On Market Sentiment:
“It’s a weird moment... all decisions are being made not based on fundamentals but based on narratives and conversations.” ([14:05], Co-host)
On DOJ’s Coded Message:
“Writing code without bad intent is not a crime. This is one of the biggest talking points we’ve had for years...” ([16:38], NLW)
On China’s Stablecoin Plan:
“It’s not going to work. I get why they’re doing it... doesn’t mean that anybody’s going to all of a sudden want to use Chinese currency.” ([21:03], NLW)
On Market Coping Strategies:
“Be greedy when others are fearful is also, you know, long term historic wisdom… for those with long term conviction, not a lot of better moments than this, I guess.” ([16:10], Co-host)
Wry, measured, and sometimes self-deprecating, the episode captures a crypto industry caught between major macro uncertainty and real progress in regulation and innovation. Repeatedly, the advice is to “touch grass”—take a pause, stay grounded, and remember that narratives, not just fundamentals, drive market moods. The palpable sense is that both threats (political, regulatory) and opportunities (integration, new products) are accelerating as the industry navigates an exceptionally uncertain and noisy late summer.
Final Take:
“Go touch grass.” – ([22:07], Co-host)
A reminder that amidst volatility, speculation, and endless narratives, sometimes the best move is to step back, breathe, and gain perspective.