← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin BREAKS $90K As Gold & Silver SMASH ATHs! Santa Rally Inbound?
01:04:43
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- [00:00]
A
Bitcoin is once again testing $90,000. Trading sideways as gold and silver continue to break through to new all time highs. Why is bitcoin not trading like its physical cousins? That's a topic of conversation that we have seemingly every week. But we're going to continue having it today. Also, can we get a Santa Claus rally or are we going to have doom and despair on the menu for Christmas Eve Eve dinner? We're going to unpack that and everything else happening in the macro with James, Dave and of course Mr. Mike McGlone here on macro Monday. Let's go. Let's dope. Good morning everybody and happy Macro Monday. This is likely, well, maybe, you know, maybe the boys, boys will do macro Monday without me next week. I can't speak, but I won't be here. So this will be my last macro Monday of 2025. A good time to kind of recap the year and talk about what's likely to come. We've got James and Dave. Mike is on TV right now. He'll be joining us in five or six minutes. But that means that we're not going to hear about Anna Wong and, and Ira Jersey today, guys. I don't know, maybe he'll, maybe Ira Jersey's thoughts when he arrives.
- [01:28]
B
I don't know.
- [01:28]
A
So there's a lot of places to start here. It's hard to start anywhere except for this insane rally that's going on right now with gold and silver. I know Michael want to talk about this. We know that he thinks that this is the time to sell. But look at this. I mean we got gold up basically 132% on the year. We got silver up. What does that say? 64% and Bitcoin down 6.5%. Bitcoin clearly not trading like digital gold or digital silver at the moment. Is that fair to say?
- [01:55]
C
Fair to say. I, you know, I, I read something too here, Scott, that Bitcoin's up 17 out of the last 20 years on average 5% in the first quarter. So, so this, this is just kind of, it's not surprising. It's a little bit of maybe front running for the, for that expected move. But you know, it's, this is, it just, it doesn't seem to be letting up. It's one of those, obviously it's feeding on itself. You know, I mean I've got friends talking about gold. I've never, I, you know, just regular normies talking about gold. I've never ever heard them talking about gold as an investment in, you know, in decades and decades of, of investing. And here we are.
- [02:42]
B
It. The, the funny part is, look, you know, I'm the, I'm the, the most aggressive gold and silver bull. We know that. I've been calling for 5075 for many, many, many, many, many months on this show, as Mike said, that it's time to sell. And so I'll keep saying that, but the reason that I think so for a bunch of reasons is the famous M2 chart where Bitcoin has diverged from a gold and silver have not. And that hot ball of money is alive and well. And the fact is people forget. I mean people ignore that momentum and has been the single most dominant trading feature in our markets for, you know, years now. And the momentum becomes self sustaining.
- [03:27]
C
Exactly.
- [03:28]
B
You can look at the silver chart and paint yourself into a picture and say, well listen, silver to gold historically and in the earth's crust is a 15 to 1 relationship. Historically, it's bounced between, you know, 120 and 50, 120 when you know, gold is. Because gold is a lot easier to buy, buy for monetary purposes than silver. But when you get a retail LED market, just let the words sink in for a second. You're not having to deliver tons of silver, you're talking pounds of silver. Right. When it, you know, and retail can afford to play in silver. And with the contract for differences market, which I've highlighted multiple times on this show, you've now made it really easy for retail to play in silver. So what happens when retail is able to play? Well, the momentum tends to get far more exaggerated than you would expect. And every time you think it's dying. Well, it's not really dying. I mean, we know what plateauing is like in bitcoin, Scott. You know, we've talked about. We know. Oh, I got the expression. That's exactly the one I was. Exactly what I was expecting.
- [04:33]
A
We know because most of our time is spent plateauing.
- [04:36]
B
Right. So, you know, bitcoin, we. It's a very famous stat that 10 days out of the years where all the move is. But it's close but, but it's much deeper and more profound than that. Bitcoin gets God candles or massive rallies for followed by, you know, it's like, it's. It's the old quote about poker tournaments. You know, Tom McAvoy, I think it was. McAvoy, former poker champion, once said, poker tournaments are 98, boredom and 2% being on the. The most frightening roller coaster. Well, bitcoin is similar in that regard. Silver you know, had the one rally in 1980 that was the Hunt Brothers cornering it. We had a couple of other rallies along the way that never quite got there and this time it broke through. And that captured the imagination of retail. It still is. And you could easily justify the narrative of silver being cheap until it gets to 75 with gold at 4,000. So gold at 5,000. Well, do the math, you're going to get silver at 100. And that narrative is sustaining it. And we haven't seen more than a week or two of plateauing on silver and gold since this rally started. Nothing close to the six months or eight months of sideways action we've seen in bitcoin. So until you start to see people getting less excited or their price targets already achieved, you expect this to continue. Now eventually it bleeds into bitcoin or will as the idiosyncratic things that are going on in the bitcoin market change. I was on spaces yesterday. I was talking with Dr. Dhanush, I mean we all know Dr. Dhanush and a few other people and we were chatting about this. And the sentiment in the bitcoin market and certainly in the altcoin market is doom, gloom, despair. All of the crypto native, the vast majority of the crypto native folks, with the exception of the dyed in the wool bitcoin long term hodlers like me and you, James, are like, oh God, let's wait for another three years and then we'll get our day in the sun. So sell everything, pack your bags and touch grass, whatever, you know, and when that happens, you know, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. But there's one problem, of course, you know, in the, the old, A funny thing happened on the way to that. Well, what happened was above 100 we had a lot of distribution and it was a lot of distribution over the past year. Probably half a million coins worth. And so I think it's been a.
- [06:57]
C
Million coins or actually more. It was a million coins.
- [07:01]
B
And the new buyers are, okay, we're buying this for, you know what our, our bet is. It goes substantively higher. Whether you listen to Larry Fink's version of it or mine, it doesn't matter. I mean it's, it's whether it's five times or 10 times, you know, underpriced, it's a big number. So these variations don't matter. And so we saw that over 100, below 100 we saw is the biggest liquidity flush in the history of crypto washing out firms, washing out people, causing this Doom and gloom. And yet with all of that, bitcoin is trading, you know, like bog in the middle of the range that it established on from October, carved out after October 10th. And so I look at this as a really good setup for bitcoin. Altcoins are a totally different conversation. Completely different for a lot of reasons. And I think that bears that's something maybe we talk about in January. You remember at the beginning of the year I said this would be the year value asserts itself. Well, I was half right. Lack of value is starting to assert itself, but value hasn't started to assert itself yet. So that's the way I look at it. And macro backdrop is probably the easiest trade in bitcoin ever. Sorry Mike, but was the people, the doom and gloomers who said a week ago that bitcoin was going to crash because Japan is raising rates now why they say it was easiest trade ever. It was almost as easy as saying as selling the top when you know, all the good news was there when it was. When it was all very euphoric because people were so doomy and so gloomy and it was so well known. That's not surprised. I mean there are a lot of people out there who did stupid things like sell the Nikkei. The Nikkei has been doing nothing but go straight up since, since the the bank of Japan raised rates. Why? Because it was well telegraphed and well known. People always for make this the thing. As I said on a tweet this weekend or a post this weekend, whatever the, the sell the rumor, buy, you know, buy the news, buy the rumor, sell the news is undefeated and it will always be because markets react to surprises. It doesn't react to what is well understood. And so with that, we haven't talked about what's going on in the macro side, but yields aren't moving. Lots of stuff aren't moving. But you're here, Mike, so go for it.
- [09:15]
A
Yeah, Mike, we started with the gold and silver rally. Obviously. I just wanted to highlight that gold is actually the most overbought on the monthly chart that it has ever been. So yes, it is breaking out, but we are seeing historic action here.
- [09:27]
D
Well, just the fact that Bloomberg primetime TV just asked me to comment on the gold and silver breaking out to new rally. That's a sell signal. An indication of that was in December 2017, two Sundays in a row when the futures are launching. They asked me to comment. It was, you know, and bitcoin got to near 17,000. Like that's a sell signal. And right now I just repeated the same mantra I did in bitcoin a year ago. You're supposed to be selling when they're yelling. Now this is more of a tactical trade now, I think in precious metals. And you pointed out when the last time you. When you run at this kind of velocity, I honestly, I switch over to my risk management hat all the fundamentals that people are going to mention that we talked about five years ago when I've been bullish gold forever and wrong have kicked in and now you have to be a money manager and say, do I want to be overweight long these levels and history proves, yeah, you can easily get gold of 5000 momentums going there. You can get silver maybe to $80 momentum's going there. But then you can put in a peak for decades and that's usually what happens. You can drop 50, 60, 70% easily. So to me, these are levels you're supposed to say, thank you very much. You know, give some back to the market, never tempt the market gods, which is what Michael Saylor did last year. Key signals to sell bitcoin and be careful now, things like crude oil getting cheap, that's kind of disparity. It's never happened at this velocity. That's why I'm emboldened to say next year will be a down year for the stock market and maybe s and P500 goes to 5,000, maybe not. Hopefully not. That consensus has got a rally 11%. So if it drops 11%, we all know that would just put that Bitcoin gold ratio is a good one. The premier leading indicators on the planet, which I think it is. So I'm looking at next year as this whole. My mantra, main base case a year ago was this was that was a peak for cryptos and bitcoin that's playing out. Why should I end that? And my main base case for next year is we're going to have deflation from inflation as indicated by gold taking off and crude oil going down and bitcoin rolling over. So to me, this is just getting started. Sure, we're supposed to bounce. You got to have those, those bouncing rallies. You get most of those in bear markets and you got to have false hope. But the fundamentals to me are what I really appreciate what you said. Sorry, Dave to Mike. Dave, we're brothers from different mothers. We help each other get better. I do appreciate that, but we get it. But I fully think this is just part of the big picture. Peak in all risk assets, crypto's leading the way and maybe we'll get lucky. Bitcoin will disengage. But I sent you that chart, I think last week, Scott, you showed the 48 month correlation. A correlation between the market vectors 100 small cap index versus Bitcoin is the highest ever. That's where things are. We got to get through this purge. To me it's a purge.
- [12:09]
C
So Mike, do you go, are you going the long crude, short silver trade here then? Because I mean silver, one ounce of silver being more than a barrel of oil is. That's pretty significant.
- [12:23]
D
Yeah, I saw that out this week and I love it. And as a trader you cannot, you can't go with, I mean being short crude here is you have to fully expect if I was shorted, if I got shorted as an X ray or probably pop to 70, I'd get stopped out. That's where it's supposed to go down then, then I'd go to 40. I mean that's just the way it works. So I'm a strategist, same thing in silver. If I were you don't short it here, you look for maybe use options. You can easily go up another, you know, like it did last time. It's this. Listen, okay, good examples. 1979, it, it peaked at $32. This year's lowest 28. Just give an example what can happen and I'm sorry then peak and then went to 50 and then it went down to 2 by was in 1993. That can easily happen in all cryptos, but that's the trade as a commodity person, you look at those trade looking to maybe find ways to get negative delta silver and potentially positive delta on things like crude oil. It just as a strategist the trends are still momentums against you.
- [13:15]
B
But there is a big difference though between oil and silver and certainly between oil and gold. And that is that oil has gotten massively cheaper to extract over time. That relentless pace of technology has driven the price down relative to, to other commodities. So you would expect it silver and gold, the technology hasn't really improved. It's really just a question of the fact that the money supply is more than doubled. Actually. What is the, what is the total global monetary supply done since 1980? I think it's probably close, it's probably closer to quadrupled than doubled, but it's doubled in the last six years. So you know, to me, you know, seeing that ratio and not taking into account the fact that technology for oil has gone parabolic in terms of the ability to extract every single little bit out of even the most sludgiest tar sands.
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A
Also just take it from Venezuela if you.
- [14:09]
B
Well that's true too. But you know, I think that it's really, really relevant to understand, you know, put things in perspective. So I'm sorry for the, for the, the deviation but one of the conversations this weekend we had about bitcoin in particular is because there's been a lot of news stories about this and you've been talk covering it extensively, Scott, on your shows, multiple good podcasts that people could go through. You could list them all. But is the fact that bitcoin is going to become collateral and people should understand the difference between how much money people made in 1987 or 1980, before 1988, when you could margin equities as part of financial transactions based on Basel rules and after is dramatically different. And we know those rules are going to change. We know that first of all the Basel people, the Basel executive director has said it, but also JP Morgan, other people doing it. And so we had this really fun conversation where someone said well, bitcoin won't be as useful for borrowing against and using it as stocks. And I made the point that well, the world's richest people are borrowing against their stocks, they're not selling it. And the same thing is going to happen with bitcoin. And they go well whatever that. No, but, but bitcoin's more volatile they said. So I went and ran the numbers. The numbers are pretty straightforward Right now the average 30 day volatility, current 30 day volatility of Tesla is 43, Nvidia is 38. Bitcoin is 33. So Bitcoin is much less volatile than both.
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C
Yeah, I actually have a chart in my for you could do this last weekend about, about the falling volatility.
- [15:48]
B
Volatility over the past year is half Tesla and 25% below Nvidia. And Bitcoin is still even on a five year basis less volatile than Tesla and Nvidia. And the same is true against the whole Mag 7. So people who believe that bitcoin is this hyper beta, hyper volatile thing are ignoring math and that math matters because what does that mean? Well, we talked about why did bitcoin get capped out and plun, you know, and end up plunging to discounts we've never seen before relative to its hash rate. The answer is it started with distribution from people who had to sell. They're not going to have to for very much longer. And that's a very big deal. Right. And so people need to understand that the overhead supply that they think that's there if we start moving toward all time highs isn't or certainly not as much as it used to be. Not with JP Morgan and everybody else offering, you know, this, this sort of thing. So it's, it's important to understand. Also tells you a lot about beta. This notion that if the stock market drops 20%, Bitcoin will drop or if the Nasdaq drops 20% Biscoin will drop 40. That's just a bunch of happy horseshit. Bitcoin's volatility in Nasdaq's is more or less the same over even a five year period. And there's idiosyncratic reasons there. So it's just worth understanding. That doesn't mean if Nasdaq doesn't have a massive correction that won't. Bitcoin won't drop. Of course it will, but it won't be dropped double. And that's kind of important to understand. I just thought that was important to get that math out there when Mike was in the audience. So we understand these are the numbers that has nothing to do with anything else with opinion here.
- [17:21]
D
So you just point out the main reasons the best days of bitcoin are over. Things we've been talking about for five years, it's getting arbed into being a store of value. It's volatility at 1.7 times S&P 532% or as you said about same as Nasdaq will probably go to towards where it was in gold. And I wrote about that five years ago. It's just a question of time. But that' part of the reason you see people moving out in the curve. I mean that's why we wanted to launch that Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index. If bitcoin is the beta in the space, you're not going to get vague anymore. It's done, trade's over. Particularly with the classic example of the best backtest in history and the biggest ETF launch in history. All the lessons of history. So that trade's done and I fully expect the whole crypto trade is over. The shift this year was to precious metals and that trade's potentially over. And the next big trade I think is normal deflation. But the key thing you described in bitcoin by saying volatility and becoming legitimate collateral and just what safe and Dean Amos predicted in his book the bitcoin standard stuff I don't disagree with. But that means Trey's over. It's done. The time to get on it was When Trump hated it. Trump, you know, and Biden hated when it was repressed. Now it's been taken off. We've got all these meme coins, everything. It's done. It's classic example of things we'll write about 10 years ago and say thank you, thank you for the bell ringing at the top.
- [18:34]
B
Okay. And I want to, I want to add the other piece of data because Mike just stepped it right into it. Exactly what I was going to say. If you look at Nvidia over the last five years, Nvidia's returns are pretty much exactly what Larry Fink and I are predicting Bitcoin will be over the next five years, which is a 10x actually a 12x in Nvidia's case.
- [18:54]
A
Why?
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D
Good luck with that one.
- [18:55]
B
Because it was riding a macro trend. Nvidia. There were lots of people who thought Nvidia was overvalued five years ago. Lots of them. There was. It climbed a wall of worry. It did exactly that. The volatility over this five year period, it rose relentlessly. So it's volume, Bitcoin's volume are almost identical.
- [19:11]
A
I'm definitely not going to make the argument that Bitcoin can't 10x in the next five years, but it's not going to be because it's as big of a move as the adoption of AI. I'm sorry, AI is the biggest tech trend that we will ever see in our entire lifetimes. And Nvidia, Nvidia captured all of it.
- [19:29]
B
AI is the third largest trend so far, arguably. I mean, the biggest trend, the first biggest trend, was Cisco capturing the need for broadband routing. And it, more than 10x in fact went completely crazy. I mean, it was like 20 or 30x and then eventually settled back down. The second one was the ability for people to all get online and do the Internet. And we saw way more than a 10x with regard to Amazon and everything else. Consumer adoption of the Internet to date in terms of supply chains and everything else is far bigger than the impact of AI.
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A
Bitcoin at 1995 right now. I don't think that's true.
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B
Well, no, but I mean, the point is trends are trends and you need to look at it. Bitcoin is its own trend and it has a lot of synergies with AI that we could talk through. But my point is that when you clearly look at numbers, this notion, I mean, Jeff park keeps saying if bitcoin's volatility doesn't go up, it won't go up. And the Answer to that is. Well, bitcoin's volatility and Nvidia kind of proves the point. It doesn't have to. Those two things are not linked. It has to be elevated. Sure. But if it continues to have this performance of major runs up in very short periods of time followed by months of doing nothing, you know, as a stair step function, a lot of things can happen. I just hate when people say can't. Right. You know, it's like can't markets exist to make us feel stupid. Right. You know, anytime, anytime I ever say this can't happen or this will happen with absolute certainty, inevitably you're gonna end up looking silly. In my case, it's mostly silly based on timing. Pretty much all of mine.
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C
I've got the, the chart of volatility up if you want to share that.
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B
Right.
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A
I was gonna bring up something that is silly. Go ahead.
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C
Yeah, I mean you could see that the bitcoin volatility has been dropping over the last five years versus volatility of, of, you know, like Nvidia has been rising against it. And so this is, this is important, you know, kind of indication of where, where we are now. And this is, people are getting bored with Bitcoin because it's just not volatile enough anymore. That's the crazy part. You know, that's, it's actually it's. And like Dave said, it's kind of self fulfilling.
- [21:45]
B
Right. So I think, I think there's a lot to unpack underneath that. The point that, that I'm trying to make here is.
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C
Well, here there's another thing to unpack right here, which is the march, the, the margin debt is now, you know, 1.21 trillion.
- [22:00]
B
I mean this is the single biggest fuel for, for Mike's thesis.
- [22:04]
C
Exactly.
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B
This is, is the, I mean if you do margin debt as a percent of GDP or percent of something that kind of normalizes to money supply, it's not quite so dire, but it definitely has that look. I mean, look at what happened.
- [22:17]
C
For the people who are watching who don't know what this is, this is just the, the sheer amount of margin that, that investors are taking out to buy the, the S P. This is, this is their, the margin on their, their accounts.
- [22:31]
B
And look at the, the relentless rise since, you know, since the, the bottom of the global financial crisis is, is. No, no 2010.
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C
Oh, here. Oh, the GFC.
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B
Yeah.
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C
It's just been.
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B
Yeah, yeah. And it almost makes, it's so big, it makes the GFC down. Now of course you have to divide by the fact that there's a double the amount of money since the more than double the amount of money.
- [22:54]
C
Right, but it's still the amount. Yeah.
- [22:57]
B
This may be the single biggest chart that makes me think that there could be a kaboom at some point. In fact, almost.
- [23:04]
A
We all know there's going to be a kaboom at some point. And the hard part is timing. It's kind of like Mike keeps saying, you know, the minute you short it, you'll get stopped out before it happens. And you know, kind of like I, we have endless arguments that are like this about a number of metrics that we're seeing in markets.
- [23:19]
B
Can I make one more point on this?
- [23:21]
A
No, let me finish. I've listened to Tom Lee talk about the business cycle with Raoul Paul. It's been beaten down for three years, has to go up this year. Well, why can't it stay down another year? I'm not saying it won't, but why can't margin continue to rise? Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So all these things are an indication that something will come. But good luck timing it.
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C
Now you, Scott, you need to say that again because I think new investors who have not lived through these cycles, who have never seen a market crash need to hear this because this is, this is, this is so important that markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solid. Like, it's hard to understand how, just how powerful momentum can be. And that's, and everything is driven off of momentum these days. That's it. I mean, like, it's all momentum trading. I mean, it's no surprise that you have poly market come to the United States. You know, you've got the, the betting casino in sports is just, it's, how many billions of dollars is it now? I read it, it's, it's an insane number. It's, it's mind boggling. Everybody is out there gambling and it's all, because obviously we all understand it. Money is broken. People are going further, further out on the risk curve because they're chasing, they're, they're chasing every day because they don't feel like they're, forget about keeping up. You know, they're, they can't keep up. They want to do something. They want to buy lottery tickets to try to, you know, somehow find a pocket of wealth for themselves. And you know, it, it, you're just, everybody's going further on the risk curve.
- [24:55]
A
There's two parts. It's disillusionment because I'm poor. Anyway, so who gives a. I might as well take a shot, right? And the other side is if you literally are working your ass off and can't keep up, you try to gamble to keep up like you're forced to.
- [25:08]
C
Now we're forced to gamble by the, by, by the relentless inflation. You are absolutely forced to gamble with your money. You can't just leave it there. You got to put it in something that may be able to grow.
- [25:17]
B
It's been by design. But the one other point about that chart that's really critical and it's something that Mike has said many times, so let me give credit for this one. I'm not, this isn't just me, but you have to point it out. This chart is showing you how vitally important the wealth effect is to the economy. Because people think that the margin debt is increasing because they're using it and they're buying more in margin. And there's some truth to that, but there's also a lot of truth that people are taking wealth out of their stock accounts by allowing themselves to borrow against their stock as the stock go up.
- [25:52]
C
You're able to pull out a lot.
- [25:54]
B
Of this, a lot of this relentless rise because we know the labor market has, has been dramatically underperforming for the last five years. I mean you're going to make an argument start, you know, whatever, but it has. Well, they pull out if you pull out hiring the Post Covid recovery has, has just sucked balls. It has not been that good. And so the economy, but this consumer has been doing well. And where is it coming from? It's coming from people borrowing against their stocks, which is something that Mr. McGlone has pointed out many, many times. And so understand what does this mean? If you think that Treasury Secretary Besant and the team of economic advisors that whether it's Mehran at the Federal Reserve or either of the Kevins, if you think they are not well aware of the fact that the economy is running on borrowed wealth from the US consumer against this and that's why that chart is the way it is, then you're nuts. I mean they are totally aware of it, which is why as Mike puts it, if there is a stock market major sell off, it is really bad for the US economy at this point because it will spill in the Main street much faster for the reason of that chart than it's ever happened. I would love to see that chart normalized for GDP and stretching back into at least before, into the 80s to understand just how big of a deal. But My guess is that that's the effect. And so politically they can't afford it. So what does that mean? That's why Trump says whoever's the next Federal Reserve president will.
- [27:24]
A
I mean, that was the next thing I wanted to bring up, by the way, because they're saying the quiet parts out loud. I don't know if you guys saw this quote. Well, that's the Fed, but let me find it really quick. Here we go. Hassett. President Trump is going to put his person there. And once his person is there, then the Fed will no longer be a problem. I mean, literally, it's like Luca, broccoli fishes. Like, I mean, you can't say that.
- [27:44]
B
Well, they can. Point and I've been ranting a lot. But the point that James, that James and Mike were both making in their own different way, and you're making it too, is that they can't afford, they literally can't afford for there to be a massive downdraft because it will feed on itself into a recession. They can't afford it. And so they're gonna, they're to do that. And this, and this trend has been caused by policy.
- [28:16]
D
Right?
- [28:16]
B
2020 out of the past 25 years, we've had negative real interest rates and it has caused a relentless rise in valuations because as you said, Scott, where the hell are you going to put your money? You're going to put your money in a savings account yielding half a percent. You're going to try to keep up with inflation with long dated bonds. The average person is not going to do that. So they have been pushing people out on the risk curve by policy, Both, both parties for the better part of 30 some odd years.
- [28:47]
A
Yeah, there's, there's a lot to unpack with the banks and the Fed. Obviously we know that we're going to get a hell of a lot of liquidity on that side, whether it's going to work. But interestingly, it's not just the stablecoins that have made a ton of money this year. The Federal Reserve paid out a record 1 86.5 billion to banks last year in interest on reserves. And we're getting more Fed liquidity coming in now, which is crazy. Another 6.8 billion coming in this week. That's 38 billion over the last 10 days. I mean, James, this is, this is your territory and obviously we have some auctions coming this week that are unlikely to look great. So just.
- [29:23]
C
Yeah, I mean, look, this is the, this is the steady flow of capital that's coming into the markets from the, the Fed and we knew they're going to start shoring up the, the bank reserve balances and you're seeing the, the treasury account, the general, the treasury general account getting drawn down a little bit and bank reserves going up and you've got money coming into short term T bills. This is sort of a steady stream. It's not, it is not going to have the same exact effect as buying long term Treasuries. Qe, like actual qe, but it is qe. It's, it's just QE light, you know, it's, it's capital coming into the markets that, that, that is much needed for bank, you know, for, for the bank reserves in order to have enough velocity of capital for the size of GDP we have. I mean it's, it's, it's just basic math really at that point. But you know, I, I want to know Mike, did you guys, did you guys touch on Japan at all? Was this, was this actually, I mean look at this.
- [30:27]
A
This is like a meme coin. I given this is way zoomed out but this is a Japanese puns. If that was a day know a.
- [30:36]
D
Couple decades it's been mentioned. We didn't have a morning meeting today. We did last week. It just, we did before. But yeah, that's again for some of us who traded Japanese government bonds decades ago. It's about time. I remember putting on positions for that three decades ago finally happened. That's my point is we're entering that now and I want to show you a few screens to show you. I'll put out, you know, hold me to them predictions for next year. As you notice, like on X I've never deleted anything so people can come back and say yeah well you're an idiot. But this is just the latest reading on core C, core CPI 2.6%. Yeah, it's, it's an aberration. It might bounce next year because of the shutdowns and everything. But the last two decades it's bottomed around one next year at this time I think we're talking about core CPI heading towards one. Why? Because I don't think it's different this time. So one thing that's really different is typically this used to have an inverse correlation with the stock market versus gold. Now they're both going down right now at 1:1.54. That's the amount of ounces of gold equal to 1s and P500. That's the lowest on a closing basis since almost 2012. It's breaking down. I mean that was just kind of a prediction. But it happened to go going up next year. I think it's going to happen. Stock market going down. So let's go back 100 years. We talk about, okay, we all know about this. This is S P500, the Buffett model versus GDP, the highest night closing basis since 1928. But we also talk about, let's talk about a little bit here. This is just the, the S&P 500 versus MSCI X US index. Okay so we only have 50 years of data in that, but it's peaked near the highest level ever. But here is again a key thing I want to focus on for next year and the things that I'm emboldened by by seeing gold rally and crude oil go down. This is the normal CPI level and I can't do core back 100 years but I can go back with CPI back 100 years. We've dropped below three. There's nothing to stop it from going to one. And there's one simple factor, 10% drawdown US s and P500 and stays down a well that's 25% of GDP. That to me gets crude oil to gets the average gasoline price which is about 2.8 to 2. Gets natural gas which is right around 4 to 2. Those are normal bottoms. And it gets normal CPI to 1 and maybe even negative. It's just, that's what's happening in China. It's trickling down here and that's the inordinate burden that the stock market's staying up. And I think it's finally time for just a down year. And yeah, I've been wrong on that one forever, but I was wrong on gold for quite a while. I was long on crude oil for quite a while. I just don't see the fundamental things shifting. One thing that I'll reiterate the base case I made last year is this next president, when it was Trump got elected, will face the poor timing of being elected. It's the same market capitalization, actually higher when Herbert Hoover was elected in 1928. And it's like Dave said, the indoor burden stay up is there, we all know it, we all get it. They're cutting rates, we're cutting taxes, yet we see everybody gets, we're going to have a pretty decent dividend next year from taxes that's already priced in. I mean that's all it takes is a little trigger for a normal 10% drawdown and that's all those levels I've been looking for forever are going to kick in. And that's why I'm looking at.
- [33:35]
C
Which is why we need a favorable Fed for the, for this administration.
- [33:40]
A
Not going to be a problem.
- [33:43]
D
But see this, I think that's going to happen inert and inertly because it's like Trump got elected at the absolute right cycle for energy prices to go down. I love pointing that out. And he just added fuel to that. Perfect. And I think he's getting elected at the absolute time for normal deflation from inflation. And that's what's going to happen. Fed, I think it's going to drop by this time next year. Of course, CPI is at 1%. I expect we should expect fed funds around 2%. And that's not going to be in the back of. We're going to just look back and say, yeah, stock market was down for a year. That's it, just one down year. That's how stretched we are now.
- [34:16]
A
But liquidity is supposed to be the key to everything, right? And we keep saying that bitcoin is going to follow liquidity. Take a look. I mean this from the kobec Letter. Global money surprise out of control. It's now up to record 45 trillion. This comes as China's M1 money supply has risen to 16.5. Obviously we have 8 trillion in USM1, the highest ever. It's not like there's no liquidity right now. Maybe temporarily there's been a slight lull, but I mean we have liquidity mooning and skyrocketing is obviously driving gold and silver and stock market prices, but it has not been driving bitcoin prices.
- [34:52]
D
There's only, there's only. Well, there's only two times in history when yeah, I get it, liquidity matters. But the number one source for all liquidity and the whole world now is the US stock market. And what's the best leading indicator for that is cryptos. And they've turned lower. Just pointing out facts. Now if we said that last year, which I had predicted. Now the thing is, how cheap are they going to get? Obviously microstrategy is too cheap, but gave us a great indication. But now they're all handing that way. Now I say go with the flow, go with the trend. And if you get bounces in that B, I think now I look at cryptos as now it's a worthy short, the whole market and shorting one is kind of difficult, but the whole market's a worthy short. Because if it's. If that leading indicator just continues its normal trend the dominoes follow and there's good indication for that, just gold having its best year ever versus crude oil. There's something going on here that just to be able to say that is a shocker.
- [35:42]
B
I mean it's hard for me to countenance the notion of, of bitcoin being the leading engine for the stock market when silver is bigger than bitcoin and gold is dramatically larger than bitcoin and they're the two big momentum trades, they're basically just sucking the oxygen out of the room. For from a crypto point of view, the stock market has continued to go up. Following gold just hasn't gone.
- [36:04]
C
Gold is the new, gold is the new crypto.
- [36:06]
B
I mean it effectively is. Well because of the contract for differences market, the fact that retail all around the world outside of the US and, and by the way you, you know, the high, high net worth retail can use interactive brokers and trade futures in the US on gold and silver. So don't, you know, don't you know, underestimate that. But that market is enormous and you're seeing that hot ball of money is chasing this until, they're going to chase it until completion. And so yeah, you're going to see a major rotation. This is going to take months. This is not a, a, a day thing. It's going to take months. It could even take a year, two years. I mean, you know, these are the sorts of things that don't happen right away. But you know, bitcoin led for a while when it was the darling of when it was the fastest horse in the race. But guess what? We've managed to financialize gold and silver to the point where it became a pretty damn fast horse. And the real question is where the relative value is and what happens and how far the trends can go. But you know, just the reason that, that a few months ago I turned more bullish than you on Gold and Silver Mike is because I believe the hot ball of money is much more important. I still do. I, I, as I said I would be really surprised I said it back then. I'll saying it today. I'll be really surprised if we don't see 5075. I'd be really surprised if we top, if we plateau and top out before those numbers, nothing has changed. I'm not saying, you know, I'm not raising my 5,000 to 7, 500. I'm not raising my 75 to 100. I would, I'm, it could overshoot it, maybe it stops here. But it feels to me like those are, those things are baked in the cake. Now when I said that about Ethereum, when Tom Lee started buying, I was wrong there. I said it was guaranteed to hit 5,000. It only got to 4,850. Okay, fine, I screwed up. But the point is that these are the trends and the things that matter. It's where that hot ball of money goes. And when you look at that big global money supply chart that's telling you that that hot ball of money is bigger and bigger. And oh, by the way, China has centuries of considering silver as money. Centuries. In fact, it's one of the most long standing trends is that the Chinese people historically have the affinity to silver like the Indians have with gold. And don't underestimate that impact. That's one of the reasons you're seeing this. And frankly it does the Chinese government good from a geopolitical point of view for the precious metals to continue to relentlessly rise. Particularly if you believe that bullion banks are short. Now I'm not saying they are, but I know there's a lot of conspiracy theorists out on this platform that think that, you know, because there has been in the past times when the bullion banks got themselves short and you know, there was manipulation, I just don't think they can do it anymore. I don't think they can manipulate anymore. I tend to doubt that they're short. But there's a lot of people who think that that's the case. So, you know, we'll see what happens.
- [38:55]
D
I got a follow up on that because that what you just said about silver is some of the inklings I got in cryptos and bitcoin last year from good sources who run a lot of hot money. And the thing I like to point out is having sometimes taken the other side of those type of trades is I completely agree with you. Momentum can easily carry gold to $5,000 an ounce and silver towards 75, 80. It's clearly the case right now. It's not disputable. But my point is this is when you get to these stages of parabolic rallies and certainly in comm like this, silver is much more of a commodity. It's industrial commodity more so than ever. And we've ruined. We know the lessons of monetizing it hasn't worked. There's only one monetized monetary metal now and that's gold. But the lessons are you just never, you can take decades of pain buying these levels. If you're buying now, if you're strategist, great. If you're a tactical trader. That's why I think next year is going to be ideal for the more tactically traded orientated people, which was my main focus in cryptos. You don't own along long or short. Trade it tactically. And to me that's the key to think about right now. Obviously you got to be long and we're getting people piling on. But the point is historically these are just levels got to be sound when the yelling and be careful. And that's why I just, you know, remember I was the guy who was bullish. You know, I got took the pain in gold for 21, 22 and 23 to say it's going above 2000. Finally did. And all these people along the miners, they finally get almost 200% returns this year. That is just a lot of long term pain kicking in and finally get the gain. And these have to give some back to the market. Don't tempt. And that's why just be careful with these levels.
- [40:28]
A
Do you think TLT is the, you know, bonds are the next version of that? You think something you've been exceptionally early on but will continue to rise in the future.
- [40:35]
D
You're so kind to me. You can just say, Mike, you've been wrong and I have been dead wrong in that trade. Admit it. But that's the key thing about running money now. I just say it. I have to respect you and everybody knows who does it now it's easier to say. But one benefit I have, I've seen, I've made a lot of money, lost some money trading. To me that's still the next big trade. And one simple little trigger for that is just a down 10% in stock market. I think that easily gives us 100 basis points in TLT. Now if we go down and stay down for a little while, meaning when you look back at things like crude oil and say it's the same price as 25 years ago, 20 years ago, that at some point is going to happen. We're going to look at stock market, say it's the same price as five, 10 years ago. It always happens. It's a question from what peak that's going to be the next big trade. It's already happened in China and Japan. Now China's, Japan's coming out of it's been 30 years and Japan, China's on the exact same mode. They're buying their own stocks now. They're doing everything they can to support the economy. But I have to dispute some of those numbers. You showed early the total Number I get, when I checked money supply in China, I get between 45 and $50 trillion in China alone. That's double what the US is doing.
- [41:40]
A
Yeah. James, do you take the other side of the bonds will be a good bet debate? There's been a lot of things that have been broken, obviously. I mean we had, over the past few years we had these historic, like just where the market was wrong, like bonds were doing terribly when they should have been doing well. Obviously the 6040 portfolio had its worst years of history. You wrote about this. I mean the Fed cutting rates, mortgages are still expensive. Things just don't happen the way they're supposed to anymore.
- [42:05]
C
Yeah. No, go back and look for the chart I've got on the structural break of, of the 10 year. You know, it, it, when we had ZERP for so many years, it just, it was relentless that the, the rates were going down, down, down and, and you had the tenure was a, just a fantastic investment. It's really what created the 6040 portfolio. You know, but the, I'm gonna find, I'm gonna find the, the chart here. But, but the answer is for a trade, maybe it's fine for a trade, absolutely. You know, but for a long term investment, no, I think that it'd be a terrible investment because you're going to lose on that in real terms. That's just, that's just reality. It's not like, you know, and this is a chart. Actually I'm going to pull this up. Scott. Yeah, and, and we'll, and I'll, I'll, I'll address this. This is a, this is a chart that I've got that's going to be included in a report that I've done for, for Unchained. We're going to put out something together here.
- [43:14]
A
But your Twitter screen in the back there.
- [43:17]
C
So let me, let me, let me pull it up. Hold on a second. I'll find it here. Just bear with me. Share screen. Oh, there. Okay, now you got, this is, this is important for what we're talking about here.
- [43:30]
B
Okay.
- [43:30]
C
Can you see this now?
- [43:32]
A
Now we're good.
- [43:32]
D
Yep.
- [43:33]
A
Yeah.
- [43:34]
C
I mean, and this is a, this is one of the charts that I'm going to include on that report. But the, the bottom line is this is, this is the 10 year yield and you had this 40 year bond bull market. And I just think that that that is clearly structurally over. You know, that is not, we're not going back to zerp. We, you know, we, we will have the, the, the interest rates aren't even really what matters. It's, it's the expansion of the money supply at this point. And so you know, for all the jawboning about the Fed lowering rates and how it's going to help, how it's going to help mortgages, it's not going to help mortgages. You know you're, you've got, obviously you've got the, the tenure has been going up, it's not been going down. You know, we, we lower 100 basis points on the fed funds and the 10 year goes up 100 basis points. You know it's not. And there's a reason for that and the reasons for the long term structural inflation that's baked into our equations now. I mean you have to have it. And so the answer is for a trade, sure, maybe it's a great trade short term, but for long term I would not be owning bonds. That sounds like an absolute terrible place to put money.
- [44:47]
D
So let me give you a little counterpoint on that. That chart is the most bullish chart I've ever seen because it's consensus for bonds. And this thing I've heard, I've only been started trading in 88 every single time I've heard yields are going up because of inflation and more supply. They've been wrong in the long term. And the key thing I want to point out is we've had that enduring long term downtrend in bond yields from the 70s for a reason because inflation got too high and then we kicked in. This significant thing that Jeff Booth likes to point out in the price of tomorrow is the deflationary forces technology that's absolutely accelerating. Now you see that in commodities with the exception of one major one, gold. And it's just starting to accelerate. So my point is all that what you see there is that bounce up to what was basically 5% this year in that longbound there's just happened with the US Stock market, housing market, condos, everything getting the most stretched in history in history. And now we're going to go revert a little bit. We have to keep those elevated. That's my point is we will revert. There's a question of when. I think it's starting next year. Gold's telling us that. And that yield you see there, it says the end of the bond market. Typically that means you're supposed to look back from here history and say yeah, that was great, that was your time to buy the bond market. And I'm only looking at one key thing is every signal I had for the Last five years or so the alpha was either in gold or bitcoin versus Beta. And then last year obviously I got off that horse for alpha and bitcoin. Now this year I'm getting off that horse for alpha in gold. I've only have one alpha left. I mean that's just bond yields in the US simply going to where they are in China, which is 1.84%.
- [46:15]
B
Well, the interesting thing is that's what the administration wants. So you can see that thing occurring. It's absolutely what they want to have happen. It's what, what they, I don't even want to say word need. But if they want to be able to term out the debt, they need to kind of drive it in that direction. And so it's hard to bet against that case. From my perspective, I'm not sure they'll be able to succeed. But if they do succeed, the thing you need to realize is it's part, it means that they're getting away with relentless monetary debasement without, with the rest of the world not caring. And by the way, China's been doing that. Your chart, chart shows you that Chinese bond yields are the most manipulated thing on the planet. They have to be. Because what rational human being, what rational investor would only charge less than 2% for money supply growth that looks like that.
- [47:02]
C
But you're, this is the perfect exact setup that we're seeing in Japan. Japan's yields are breaking because they're investors are not having anymore. You know, they're just, they, they, they refuse to believe this is gonna, that this can continue forever and ever and ever and ever. Amen.
- [47:19]
B
But just to put it in perspective, with Japanese inflation running at over 3%, the JGB is still a negative 1% locked in. Unless you think they're going to bring inflation down.
- [47:30]
C
That's correct.
- [47:30]
B
When you're printing money and, and running stock, you know, deficits, fiscal deficits over, you know, 200, over, over double GDP. That's, that's a really hard thing to continue. I mean there is a good reason why in the bitcoin standard safety and Ms. Talks about hyper bitcoinization, but what we're basically seeing is a fiat system that is in its, it has started its inevitable decline because people eventually can't handle it. And you have to go to manipulation. Where would the JGBs be if the Japanese government didn't buy half of them?
- [48:04]
C
Where would they be?
- [48:05]
B
I mean I think bond yields in Japan would be at 4 or 5% that easily.
- [48:10]
C
And that's the Point of the price of tomorrow is not about oh we're going to have deflation. The point is that this go. It is, it is necessary for, for central banks to battle that deflation with monetary expansion. And that, that is the exact point that we're making. What's happening in Japan, it's happened in China and it's happening here and, and everybody's starting turning Japanese. It's you. That's your own quote, Mike.
- [48:35]
A
Yeah.
- [48:37]
B
Think about it.
- [48:38]
D
Great song.
- [48:40]
B
Scott talked about AI. I mean the ultimate trend in productivity growth in global markets is almost parabolic. And so that is massively deflationary from a consumer point of view. But it doesn't do a damn thing for asset inflation. And so this trend of all monetary debasement going into asset inflation is alive and well is likely to re. Accelerate. And so when we start talking about.
- [49:06]
C
And it's necessary to keep the economy going, which is what we showed with the margin expansion.
- [49:11]
B
That's right. It is, it is extremely important to consider the denominator. And that's why in all of these things that doesn't mean, I mean people who think, you know, anyone who thinks that this is a license to say that things can't collapse in and on themselves. When you have a debt based economy, you can get a vicious cycle cycle that can happen. I think that if political wins change or, or go play out in a way that we could easily see it all collapse in and of itself. If they can't get and do the things they want to do, it's gonna, it's gonna basically stop growing. And if it stops growing and we end up with a far, you know, whatever called left wing populism where it's all taxes and regulation as as opposed to deregulation, things could look, start looking very grim and the market will be looking at that in advance. There's a lot of different, there are many, many different cross currents here. But the most important thing to understand is there's a flywheel going on. I don't mean the flywheel in the sense of infinite money glitches or like that. I mean they are on a flywheel and they cannot have the top stop spinning because when you're in a debt based economy you have after. And so, and that has to happen. And so what When Mike talks about normal corrections and reversions, I mean my gut tells me it has to happen, but my gut also tells me that they can't afford to let it happen. They can't let it go.
- [50:34]
C
They let, it'll happen Regardless of what the government wants. Because what we just talked about in the beginning of the show of momentum players and you know, and the, the, the consequences of leverage. However, the flip side of it is they cannot allow for us to go into a deep recession or a depression. It's just, it's we, the, the monetary debasement will come rapidly in order to fight that. And so you know Mike, if we're, we're watching in real time the government now admit that the Fed is not a, a political arm, they're going to install somebody who is, is favorable to this administration as the, the, the head of the Fed. Okay, so now you're gonna have a new chair.
- [51:24]
D
And.
- [51:27]
C
What do you think happens to 10 year, what do you think happens a 30 year if they start lowering rates too quickly or you know, inject too much liquidity into the markets that is more of a Kiwi style rather than just a, this trickle of qe, you know, rather than QE light.
- [51:46]
D
There was a thing that really kept me bullish. Gold starting mainly in 2022 is when Central banks start accumulating. Well the deepest, the most significant central bank on the planet is now starting to buy Treasuries. To me that's part of a good inning in baseball starting with a walk. It's just getting started. They will not allow. They will not allow. To me it just says thank you, join that trade. And I can't give investing advice but I can. No one's going to ever push back me say just overweight Treasuries. And to me it's just a question how far you go out in the curve. But what you just mentioned, the key thing that's just happening in space, the whole populace is turning left. Why? Because number one reason is inflation. And what's the number one reason that we pumped that we got inflation was because we pumped it up. The liquidity too high, we got assets too high. Now they're still tilt lower and we made all those rich people rich. And the average person in this country which is 55% wage earners is starting to get pissed off and they're going to continue. Let's look at cycles they're going to and more Most no, most midterms you always push back about against the comments. Now this one particularly because he's denying the fact that my egg has cost more than they didn't a year ago and everything we buy still costs more than a year ago. He seems to not get it. Typical rich guy, doesn't understand it. But it's Losing, it's my point. It's a cycle we talked about. You guys push back on me. See, inflation is. Now we've learned that lesson of too much liquidity and inflation. It's the end game. Cryptos are telling me that gold's telling me that. Now if you want to talk about the basement of currency, I'm like, yeah, thank you. But still we all realize you don't ever want to spend gold or Bitcoin. Bitcoin, if they're supposed to appreciate, you want to spend dollars. Something that appreciates maybe 2% a year, I'm pointing out next year can easily get to 2% core, maybe 1% in a normal cycle. To me, this is the whole turn started. And I'm emboldened to say that by what's happened with gold versus crude oil this year. And maybe I can look back from the future say, yeah, it was a faint, it was a false signal and we got lucky. We're supposed to buy these highly speculative digital assets with unlimited supply. Now we'll repeat that because that's what's happening. People are realizing there's for precious metals, they're up a lot in a good year where they should be, that's time to be careful. And then there's millions of these other things that bitcoin was just the first.
- [53:45]
A
Wouldn't you expect that if they cut rates that fast and we see everything that low that we first we would have massive inflation and we wouldn't get to deflation yet next year.
- [53:54]
D
So it's an if statement that's implausible. They can't cut rates that fast. They'll get a good reason. Now that's my point. If you can get a little drop in the stock market, they'll cut rates. They'll be a great trade. It'll go back up and might be the bigger picture. But the higher your boost the assets, the harder they fall. It's just a question of when. Now we've boosted up so high, as I keep pointing out, they keep getting higher. Gold's figuring out. But the key point is what James says is right. The bond market is telling the Fed they are wrong. It's the end game. You should not be cutting rates because yields are beginning going up like that long Bond right now at 484 with fed funds running 3 is just, well, just a little bit above 3 is telling you that yeah, that's the wrong trade. But it's all dependent on the stock market. It's up 15 this year. It's down 10%. That's all that's going to matter.
- [54:41]
C
But it's also telling you, not that just the Fed is wrong, it's telling you that the market's really understanding that we're, we're, we're driven by fiscal deficits now. And those deficits are not stopping. Like this is not ending. The Doge Commission did nothing, you know, and we can play around with numbers and show what the, the impact of, of, of tariffs are or what they could be or what they should be or what they might be. It doesn't matter. All that matters is the, the market is understanding that fiscal deficits are, are going to continue, and that's driving this. And it's, and that's not. And it's likely to get worse rather than get better. And that's just, that's just reality.
- [55:23]
A
I just find it very hard to wrap my head around, hey, if everything's about to blow up, where should I put my money? In dollars?
- [55:30]
B
First of all, let's be clear. I don't think everything's going to blow up. You believe something, but you have to look at the denominator. Every time you say the prices are stretched and you have to remember, over double, we literally double the amount of dollars. So that means that the asset prices that you're looking at have to be adjusted for that when you look at it. And that changes the dynamic rather significantly. It just does. And this notion that consumer inflation is a direct line from interest rates is just, it's just wrong. I mean, there's just no data to suggest it. Yeah, interest rates 100% will impact aggregate demand. And the reason he wants to cut rates is because who pays those higher rates? Well, who pays the higher rates are homeowners and the average person. And it also creates, when you lower rates, it also stimulates business investment, which of course also helps create more automation and hurts the job market, et cetera. We've seen these trends play out over decades. So the notion, the mental model that says you need interest rates going up to go to hit consumer inflation, it was wrong in 1982 when I got a B plus in my macro class, because Professor Gordon at the time, who wrote the book, the book, probably the most popular book in intermediate macro back in those dark ages, said it would take seven years of recession to break the back of inflation. But what actually happened was inflationary expectations were brought, crushing, crashing down when Volcker did what he did, and it took less than 18 months. And we saw that then. So interest rates then broke the back of aggregate Demand.
- [57:08]
D
It did.
- [57:09]
B
And so people are saying, oh, okay, well, everything is the same now. Well, no, no, the economy is different. For the last 25 years, we've had really low interest rates and really low consumer inflation. Why? Driven by productivity. What is the single biggest trend, Scott, that you just said that's happening? It's something that's a massive change to productivity. Now, it will not affect certain things. The reason, it's not eggs that are the issue, Mike. It's not food that's the issue. Yeah, there have been some increases, but it's nowhere near as bad as it was. And eggs, in fact, have come down. Down because of the stupidity of killing all the chickens under the previous administration. But, but all that has nothing to do with it. Where, where the midterms are going to be a disaster for the Republicans. It's not because the world's moving left. It's because people's medical insurance and medical care costs are going through the roof.
- [57:56]
C
Medical insurance, home insurance, car insurance.
- [57:59]
B
It's, it's, it's, it's because the insurance company lobbies have basically captured both, both parties and whoever in power is going to take the fall for it. And so that's what you're seeing. You know, in fact, the data is showing a really terrible trend for the United States, which is young men are moving to the right, young women are moving to the left, and our fertility rates are dropping off a cliff, which is a huge freaking problem. And it's one that Elon talks about that it's global, but it's very true in the United States as well, by the way. That's exactly happened in Korea, and they're facing an absolute disaster for that. So we have all sorts of socioeconomic trends or socio, sociological trends that are being magnified by social media. And we could talk about it, but it's not nearly as black and white as you said it. But both parties, whoever is in power, will get just destroyed if you make it so that people can't afford their own health. And that's what's happening. That is why the midterms are shaping up to be this bad. And, and honestly, it's hard to believe that the Republicans are this dumb, that they're falling into the trap the Democrats are setting on this. Right. But it is what it is and that's what's happening.
- [59:04]
D
So a question I guess I can ask all of us is the number one measures to really indicate consumer sentiment in this country are unleaded gas prices. Gas prices going down, which is down on a one year basis, 6% and stock market going up which on a one year basis is up almost 20%. Yet consumer sentiment's in the dump. So what happens next year at this time if we get a little backup in the stock market? To me this is an accident waiting to happen. I'm not talking about just a normal reversion that is normal deflation. Historically I mentioned another book, the Price of Time by Edward Chancellor. It's always happened. Just a question of when it's happening in China. To me next year is the year I've been wrong for a while. But I like to ask the question what stops these trajectories of consumers as being in doldrums yet all the indications are they should be fine time.
- [59:55]
C
Yeah, that's a loaded and longer question here, Mike. And one of the problems that that can't be solved with just a market drawdown is the fact that so much of the spending because coming out of the top 10% of this K shaped economy, you know and so there it structurally what Dave said is really important. We need to structurally change how healthcare and the, all the insurance companies that are, that have been emboldened with both sides of the aisle to you know to have the ability to, to just relentlessly raise rates on everything. And that's. And that is taking a much larger percentage of the lower demographics income than, than any of the, the top 10%. The top 10% barely feel it whereas the lower 50% are being absolutely destroyed by it.
- [60:56]
A
Yeah, there's gonna be a lot much longer conversation than we can have throughout 2026 I think but. Yeah, where's Bitcoin now? 90ish.
- [61:05]
B
Yeah, I'm gonna live it live here for a while. It's worth summing up since we probably won't do the show next week that there's a major option expiration coming up and whatever the trend that's going to start is going to start after. It'll probably be starting next week but next week. This is the one time of year when most of the world has synchronized holidays. Who knows in a low liquidity environment what could happen. You could see $10,000 moves in either direction. In fact it wouldn't surprise me to see bucks both. It wouldn't.
- [61:37]
C
David is talking about here is that you know as you get, as you get to 90000 which is where we're pinned right now. You've got. There's so many calls that have been, that have been written that the, the, the buyers, those calls and the market makers are selling bitcoin into it as a delta hedge against the, the calls that they're long because they're the ones who are buying the calls from the investors. And then I think it's 85, 000 somewhere. If you go down a little bit lower, I think it's 85, 000. That the. It's the other side of the trade. So it's just kind of pinned between 85, 000 and 90, 000. We'll see if it breaks through. I mean, it could break through. It doesn't have to be pinned here. Yeah, that is a, a large headwind for, for bitcoin. It's a big. It's a. That's a. That's a great insight in that post.
- [62:26]
A
Yeah. If you look at the bitcoin daily chart in last week, I think every single day last week except for one. But, but basically it hit mid 85s and tested just under 90 or just above every single day liquidated, but every day price was hitting both that low and that high. So whether it's anecdotal or coincidence, I don't think so, but there's a lot of evidence of that. All right, guys, 10:06am we did it once again, another great macro Monday. Mike, we missed the morning meeting, but we'll run it back when we come back next time. Everybody, thanks for listening. Dave and I presumably will be on crypto town hall. Dave, you're going to be there today. I know you had.
- [63:05]
B
I'll be a few minutes late. Yeah, I have.
- [63:07]
A
I got to get somewhere else before I do it, which is why we got to run. Thank you everybody. It's been another great one. We will see you next time. Bye. Everyone's looking for smarter ways to build their bitcoin stack. Well, here's one most people overlook. You can earn bitcoin every single time you spend without ever buying it directly. That's where today's video sponsor Gemini comes in. The Gemini credit card gives you instant crypto rewards on every purchase, and there's no annual fee. It's a MasterCard World Elite, so you can use it anywhere. MasterCard is accepted. Gas, groceries, travel, all of it. Now, here's the breakdown. 4% back on gas rides and transit, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% on everything else. The best part, you're earning Bitcoin or one of 50 plus other cryptocurrencies automatically deposited to your Gemini account. For me, it's been a really effortless way to build exposure to bitcoin just by spending like normal and doing the things that I do every day. I've literally earned bitcoin just from filling up my car with gas. And historically, bitcoin Rewards held for one year have appreciated 279% on average. You're not just spending, you're building a portfolio. This is the Gemini credit card. Sleek, straightforward, and one of the easiest ways to turn everyday purchases into long term value. To get started, look at the link in the Description and get $200 in Bitcoin. When you spend $3,000 in your first 90 days, click the link in the description to apply and start earning instantly. See rates and fees in the description for more info.