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Scott Melker
Bitcoin is breaking out with a move to 100k looking imminent. All this is happening while we're getting.
Mike Alfred
A delay from the Senate on the.
Scott Melker
Clarity act markup and a lot of.
Mike Alfred
Pushback from the big banks, especially JP Morgan, about stable coin yield. We're going to talk about all of.
Scott Melker
That and much more more specifically where.
Mike Alfred
We think the market's headed as it ramps up.
Scott Melker
Here with one of my favorite guests.
Mike Alfred
And people, Mr. Mike Alfred. Let's go. Let's do.
Scott Melker
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to scenic Las Vegas.
Mike Alfred
I decided to, you know, fly over from Tampa to join Mike in his hometown. You, you noticed it right away, my fake Vegas background. I threw that up there for you. It seemed to seem to work out.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. My hometown is actually San Diego and I did fly in from Texas this morning to, to be here with you, so it's great to see you, Scott.
Mike Alfred
Yeah. Well, have you ever seen the Mel Brooks movie History of the World where he says it's good to be the king over and over again? That's how I feel when I'm talking to you. It must be good to be the king. You had probably the best year of anyone I know in 2025 was a.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Rough year for most people in crypto. People are going to forget this real quickly because, because that's human nature to forget pain. But MSTR was down like 48, 49%. Marathon Digital was down like 48, 49%. Solana was down 30%.
Mike Alfred
Right.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Ethereum was down more than 10%. Bitcoin was down. It was actually a really hard year to post returns. The one area that we, we saw some nice follow through was the AI data center conversion opportunity, something we've talked about a lot on your show over the years. I mean, we, we literally were talking about iron at $2.80 and it went to $75.
Mike Alfred
I'm old enough to remember when we called them bitcoin miners.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yep. Yeah, they're, it's hard to call them that anymore. They're basically large scale energy capacity builders. Right. Who happen to built an expertise in these large scale AI data centers as well. Again, people will say, hey, you couldn't have seen that coming. But in fact we did. And we did talk about AI well before the market was focused on it. And I think when you look at the bitcoin market now, I think with the benefit of hindsight, you can say we never had a, a bull market at all this cycle. So I don't believe with the benefit of hindsight that there's been any bull market in crypto over the last four years. I think effectively we've been in a prolonged bear market that started with the Fed raising rates for 500 basis points in quick succession, basically killing the market in 2022. And while there was some signs of recovery in various assets like Salana and XRP for periods of time, like, there's been no sustainable recovery because there's actually been no business cycle at all. There's been no ISM, PMI, over 50 rates have been too restrictive. I don't necessarily agree with the approach that Trump's taking, but I think he's not wrong that, that the Fed has been. Been wrong about the impact of tariffs and has been too slow to reduce sort of the drag on the economy from, from higher rates. And then I think for crypto in particular, we've never had something like AI that's so big and so powerful that it sucks the oxygen out of the room. So AI has effectively dampened the ability for crypto to pick up any liquidity from the broader economy the way it would have in previous cycles. And so I just, I think it's just a totally different world. I think we're maybe in the first, second, third, fourth inning of a business cycle and a liquidity cycle. And for, for Bitcoin, that means we might only be in the fourth or fifth inning of the move. And I think what we're looking for now is gold and silver to cool off over the next quarter or so. I, I do expect silver will cool off sooner than, than anything else because supply, it's pretty easy to meet the supply there. So I've been just like shooting fish in a barrel. I've been taking shorts on, on the SLV ETF every single morning for like a week now. And so like, I'll do it again. I think it's at 83 something right now. I'll take it again today and I'll short it between 83 and 85 and by the end of the day it'll be 81. Right.
Mike Alfred
It's just at 92. But I'm not looking at the ETF.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Sorry, sorry. 9. No, no, no, the ETF. Look at the ETF. The ETF said 83. I think it went as high as 8,330 or 83.50 in the pre market. Yeah, already today, but I think at some point today it'll be 81 again. And it's been doing the same thing every day for a week. And so the shorts get the longs and Silver gets so, so mad because they're like, how can you be making money in an uptrend? I'm like, well, you obviously don't know anything about trading because there is a nice downturn intraday and Silver every single day.
Mike Alfred
Silver people who I did not know actually existed in this world are worse than crypto community members from dying altcoins.
Scott Melker
They're so angry and aggressive. I posted a tweet saying Silver looked.
Mike Alfred
Cooked with a chart at some point in the, you know, mid-80s. So it went a little higher, but.
Scott Melker
Like they freaked out.
Mike Alfred
I did not know that there were.
Scott Melker
Angry, emotional Silver people.
Mike Alfred
And I don't want to know angry emotional Silver people.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
I mean, it makes sense that they would be a little annoyed. I mean, they have not made any money for decades relative to anything else in the market. And then finally it looks like going to have a sustainable break and then people like me are, are making money shorting the one time like the one month or two in the history of silver where they're actually feeling good. So I, I understand. And a little bit of it is me poking the bear for fun, right? Because I guess you. No, no, you trolling people.
Mike Alfred
That, that would never happen. That could never happen. So listen, you just kind of gave the summation of 2025. I agree with it. I think it's effectively no bull market bit of grinding upward. I think we basically got a repricing of bitcoin after Trump was elected. Right. So you kind of pin it back to a year ago November he got elected. We jumped up into the, you know, high 70s and have sort of had a slight uptrend since then. A flat year depending on when you look at it. What does that mean then, if we actually do see a business cycle and liquidity and is that guaranteed? Because I've seen a lot the Tom Lees, Raoul pals of the world saying, listen, you know, the ism is going to, going to rage now, business cycles coming back, but it's been flat for years. There's nothing that says markets can't remain irrational and it remains flat.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, but I think it's partially flat because the, the Fed's been behind the curve because I think the Fed is actually a lot more political than people think it is. Right. Or at least tradfi. People who want to believe the stories that are told, the narratives that are told by, by the mainstream establishment, the Keynesian establishment. So they're all saying Trump's messing with the Fed's independence. And I'm like thinking about it I'm like, I don't think the Fed's ever been independent. I think it's basically been a lobbyist arm for the US Banking cartel the whole time. So I, I personally don't have a, have a problem with the end result of what he's probably going to do, which is going to shake things up and he's going to bring rates to a level that make the economy juice the economy a bit. He can run the economy hot if he wants to.
Mike Alfred
I think they have to. There's an election coming.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, I, I don't think it's just that. I think it's also that a lot of mainstream people are struggling and if things aren't working for those people today, then you've got to try something. And he's trying everything. He's like, let's go stop corporations from buying homes and let's try to, let's try to bring down rates by buying up mortgage bonds and let's try to capture credit card interest rates. And I mean, he's just on a rampage right now. And some of those things are maybe not great long term ideas, but it sort of doesn't matter. They will have the net effect of increasing animal spirits, much like the Fed's job owning often without actually doing anything. The Fed's able to sort of restrict liquidity. Trump is trying to reverse that by jawboning the other direction to try to increase liquidity, increase animal spirits and get people spending. Now remember, we also had all these sort of asinine and dumb policies like, like tariffs, for example. Tariffs, net, net mean nothing. And all they did was basically confuse everyone and stop economic activity. Right.
Scott Melker
Immigration policies.
Mike Alfred
Find out literally today, likely if those are constitutional or not. The Supreme Court tariff ruling is coming in about 50 minutes.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. And it'll take a while to, no matter what the ruling is, it'll take a while to, to make adjustments around that. But my point is that, that nothing good has really come out of those. Like forget about the mainstream narrative or his narrative that hey, look at all this money we raise, like net tax on the economy. When you consider all of the negative externalities of corporations and CEOs being afraid to invest, like it's actually curtailed growth pretty significantly. And then immigration as well. Like, I'm a fan of keeping criminals outside of the United States. Right. I'm a fan of respecting the rule of law, but I also am not a fan of putting guns into junior ICE agents and having them rampaging around cities like, including, like shaking down actual citizens and Scaring the crap out of ethnic minorities such that they stop spending. Some of it feels quite targeted, like, from a political standpoint, where, like, if you were really concerned about immigration, you would do something a bit more comprehensive that would capture illegal immigration from every ethnic group, not just people that look a certain shade of brown or speak a certain language. Right. And so, again, I'm not a fan of any of that. But at the same time, maybe the net benefit of Trump's presidency will still be positive for the average American. But I think he's got to stop doing things that cause the economy to sort of shrink up and shrivel, and he's got to start doing more things that get people excited and get people pumped up again. And I think his advisors have finally gotten him off the cliff on some of this stuff. And I think that's what will. What will cause an actual business cycle.
Mike Alfred
There's some interesting things that are aligning, which is very much in line, actually, with all the things you just said, which is that. So we have clarity, Right? And the big fight is stable coins and yield, and the banks are against that. But JP Morgan seemingly also against basically everything that Trump is proposing right now. You can see this one right here. JP Morgan says 10% cap on credit cards, which you mentioned would be very bad for consumers. And then you have them obviously pushing back against the stable coin yield. And then you have Jamie Dimon criticizing tariffs, criticizing Trump going after Powell. I mean, I'll show you exactly what Trump said. This is pretty entertaining. This is after Jamie Dimon said that he's putting too much pressure on Powell is a good, good one. Diamond said today that it's not a great idea to be chipping away at the Fed's independence. Do you think Jamie Dimon's wrong about that?
Jamie Dimon (quoted)
Yeah, I think it's fine. What I'm doing. And we have it at Bed Fed first, and he was extended by Biden. And yeah, I think he's wrong. I think it's wrong. He's. He's done a bad job. We should have lower rates. Jamie Dimon probably wants higher rates. Maybe he makes more money that way.
Mike Alfred
I mean, that's a pretty funny comment, because if you take a look, when talking about clarity and stablecoins, JP Morgan made 25 billion last quarter in net interest income. So you wonder why the banks don't want stable coins to have yield, because, you know, then the customers might actually make some money and the banks might not be able to keep it.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
All right, Yeah. I mean, the Fed and the treasury need the commercial banking sector in the US to sort of create money and get it out into the economy. And to the extent at which the government cozies up too much with crypto and stable coins, it actually disintermediates the traditional commercial banking business. So I think there's a huge rift that's formed with Trump and a lot of these establishment banking economic people and they're all connected from via the Fed. Right. And so it makes sense that there's kind of a battle playing out right there. I'm actually supportive of some of the stuff Trump is doing in that area. I don't think it's just Trump and just stablecoins. Like there's a whole kind of neo banking movement that's starting to play out too where consumers will get better deposit rates, they will be able to transfer money more cheaply, they will be able to access more products and services. And you know, I'm seeing that playing out at Bakkt for example, right now where we just announced the acquisition of our CEO's company, bringing it fully into the fold. But that's really just to lay the foundation for what we're about to launch in the coming months. So I, I see a lot of things that are coming for the banking sector. I would not. I see a lot of hedge funds that are like long JP Morgan and Wells Fargo and Bank of America and that's been a popular trade over the last couple years and people have made money doing that. I still think in the long run those companies are going to face a lot of challenges.
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I don't think they're structural. Very hard to short right now, but a very clear direction.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, and also the yields are decent too. So you're paying quite a bit to borrow and then pay those dividend yields to the holders of the stock while you're short. So I'm not recommending a short on those names. I'm just saying I wouldn't be excited about getting long as a long term structural long, I'd rather be long. Something that I think has better longer term tailwinds than the banking industry.
Mike Alfred
I mean, in your mind, how much then does clarity matter Right now? There's been a battle between the crypto industry, the banks and then obviously whichever side is donating more to any given politician between the politicians on whether to sort of reopen this yield argument from genius by putting in legislation into clarity. Yesterday we had a story that the new proposal out of the Senate Banking Committee sort of assuage some of the concerns from Coinbase but didn't go all the way. So we sort of met halfway on what would be allowed as far as rewards which they won't call yield. But now we have had the markup pushed back. Senate crypto bill markup moved to January 27th. It was supposed to be tomorrow. 137amendments now to this thing. It does not seem like this is going to pass easily or that yield is a foregone conclusion.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, I mean, look, the problem is the, the bill is probably so long that no one's actually read it. I mean chat GPTs probably read it and Cloud's probably read it thousands of times and maybe, maybe there's a good summary that someone's done. I've seen a couple of those, but I'm not sure. Again, for. Since I focus primarily on Bitcoin and then more recently. Right. In the last two, three years focused on the AI data center component, I'm not so focused on clarity in the very short term. Like I know there are some people who think it's super important. I'm just not sure that it's going to matter. Again, I think the factors that are going to drive Bitcoin are related to the business cycle and liquidity. Less so regulation, I don't think bitcoin didn't need because we didn't have regulation the last couple times. Bitcoin went completely parabolic. So clearly, if you look at history, Bitcoin at least doesn't need anything in particular. And I think if you, if you think about what's happened this cycle, you've gone from 16 to 126 to 70, back to, you know, 80. You went down to 74 in April 80 and in like November and now we're sitting right around 94, 95. Like look, seem to be basing for another run at all time highs and maybe clarity, maybe clarity happens around the same time. But I don't, I think it would be coincidental. Right. And sort of like something that's just happening at the same time. Less so of a driver.
Mike Alfred
I said the, the appro. The, the best, the best possible news with an approval I think is priced in because there's an expectation that's going to happen. To your point, if you're focused on bitcoin and miners or data centers, however we're reskinning them these days, I don't think it matters at all. I think for the people who want to build in crypto in the United States or who still have some hope that their altcoins may eventually make a move. They probably care deeply whether Clarity happens or not. But I would even go as far as to say that Atkins at the SEC has made so many statements and has made it exceptionally clear that he doesn't view these things as securities anyways, which was likely the largest threat to a lot of them. And it hasn't really moved price. So what else is clarity going to really offer? The crypto market as a whole, and the SEC has Project Crypto coming, their whole push to give clarity on all this. I think it's important. But I agree with you, it's not the singular catalyst that many view it to be.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, I think we're. Look, I've been wrong in 2025, right, because I thought any moment, any quarter of last year, we could have seen the beginning of kind of a broader crypto rally. There are signs now, right? Like if you look at Ethereum just over the last few days, if you look at the way Bitcoin's behaving so far, year to date, it was almost like the Algos flipped over on January 1st. I mean, they were sitting, the Algos were sitting on all the small cap stocks and all of crypto for most of from mid November, maybe the first to second week of November through the end of the year. And by the end of the year it was so obvious. It was like they weren't even hiding the behavior anymore. They were trading exactly the same. And then all of a sudden the, the calendar flipped over and you had a January 2nd on a Friday and boom. It was like, it was like they flipped the light switch and everything went the other way. And so I think sometimes this stuff, it's not pre programmed necessarily, but there are technical factors that are driving some of this stuff and flows where it doesn't matter what the news flow is like. Unsophisticated market participants will sit around and talk about stuff like this as if this is going to be the driver. Because unsophisticated market participants need narratives to understand price action, whereas more sophisticated market participants who've been around for a long time understand that you don't necessarily need anything if an asset is sort of primed and positioned to move in a certain direction.
Mike Alfred
Yeah, go ahead.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Bitcoin over the next three, five, seven years is headed towards a million. And the question is only when. And so at any moment when you're trading at 90 and you know it's going to a million within, say eight or nine years, at any moment it will begin to rise and you'll come up with reasons afterwards to explain it. But, but if you were looking for reasons before, they won't exist. So that's how people miss it. They're, they're drawing chart squiggles showing it's going down. Right, because it's the end of the four year cycle and there's a having, you know, that just happened, you know, a year and a half ago, two years ago, and so now the market has to go down because we topped out at 126 and so we're going to 30. Right. And it totally ignores all of the other factors that we've had in these previous so called bitcoin having cycles that are different. I think this is, it's not even.
Mike Alfred
Remotely like entirely different. The only thing that's similar is it had a local top in October. Everything else is different. The crypto market broadly was completely different. You never got the altcoin run. The bitcoin all time high was way too early because of the etf. I keep throwing up quotes, but you can't just say, hey, there was a Reddit post that said we'd get an all time high in October and we did. So therefore the cycle. Listen, I know you're not a fan of chart swiggles, but if you were, Bitcoin looks like it's going to 112 to me. It's a classic ascending triangle. It just finally broke out on volume above the levels it's been trading. So it's definitely out of the range at the moment. And to your point, you take a look at an XRP chart, Ethereum chart, Solana chart, I've been pointing this out. Everything got back above the daily 50 ma as this did, and for the first time in ages they're keeping up.
Scott Melker
With bitcoin coin or outperforming, which means.
Mike Alfred
That it's not just rotation. There actually is a bit of new money in this market and you want to look at January 1st, that could be because of tax loss harvesting. If you need narratives, maybe all those whales finally got sick of selling or ran out of coins they wanted to sell because we were at 90 for so long.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Right.
Scott Melker
I mean there's a lot of reasons.
Mike Alfred
It could be, but bottom line, most things look extremely good to me from a fundamental and technical perspective at this moment and it looks ready to ramp up.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
I mean, think about how gold and silver has led the crypto cycle the last few times. Like it's actually rhyming, it's just, it's so elongated that that basically anybody who has a short Attention span hasn't been able to follow the thread all the way across, right? So they, they've already lost interest. They didn't make any money last year and they didn't make any money the year before and so they gave up. When actually we're right at the phase of like the second, third inning of the cycle where gold and silver rip, pull back, liquidity starts to broaden. You get a full business cycle, you get liquidity flowing in, you eventually get retail FOMO we have not seen, and you know this guy, we have not seen anything like 2017, 2013, 2021, nothing like it. So anyone who thinks that like, because, because Mag 7 went up, right, like Mag 7 went up good, like AI obviously is a, is a macro super trend that we've never seen before. And, and so it makes sense that that would happen. And Bitcoin went up because of the ETF and, and treasury companies and forces that haven't existed in the institutional market in previous cycles. But everything else is sort of totally hostage to the lack of a business cycle. So basically 2020, in retrospect, 2022 was the steep part of the first leg of the bear market. 23, 4 and 5 were like, like bounce back periods where the rubber band had stretched too far away from fundamental value. And so the last three years was a rebasing the rubber band coming back to the mean. So now we're just sitting at like fair value in a world where nothing is changing, right? Where the consensus is just that crypto's crypto and like it doesn't matter that much and nothing's going to happen. And so all it takes is to start to get the sense that say Bitcoin or Ethereum or something in that category is looking unstoppable, impulsive, like it's just going to run and we don't know why, but it just starts to move up sort of the way zcash did a month or two ago where people are looking at it in crypto and they're like, how, when everything else is down, how is this happening? That's going to start happening elsewhere over the next six months and later we'll go back and say, oh well, that was the beginning of the actual real bull market. But we were so confused because it took so long from 2022 that we, that we didn't realize that we were actually in a prolonged bear market and then eventually came into a bull market and so, so overlaying with the AI Capex cycle real quick because I think this is an Important concept that most crypto people just won't get because they're not focused on it. The AI Capex cycle is the biggest capex cycle in absolute terms in all of human history. It is in the first or second inning. It is mostly powered by cash and cash flow from the largest companies in the world. And as of right now, it looks like it's going to accelerate at least into 2028 or 29 and possibly into the2030s. And so you're not going to get any sort of prolonged downturn in an environment where every large company in the world is competing in an existential battle to preserve their core business. Whether you're Microsoft or Apple or Amazon or Meta or Tesla, there's a reason why they're spending billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars in capex. And that as long as that continues, you have the right backdrop for eventually some of that liquidity and some of the economic growth that comes out of that to filter into crypto. So I, I could see a scenario where we actually run up for basically the next two or three years, as it's not my baseline scenario right now, but it is a plausible scenario that I think most people have discounted to zero and therefore makes it more likely that it could surprise. I do think 2026 could be. I mean we're already seeing, we're halfway through 26 and people like me are up almost 30% for the year already on large dollars. Right? And, and we had something similar last year in the AI data center space, but immediately sold off into February, March and then we had the low in April. If we don't just sell off from here for the rest of January or into February, like this year is setting up to be bigger, much bigger than 2025 across the board. Because remember last year was actually not that great of a year for most people. And if you go back to 2024, it wasn't actually that great of a year for the bitcoin mining AI data center space. It was a good year for MSTR and a couple treasury companies, right? And then the year before that, 2023 was really good year for the miners, but wasn't such a good year for mstr. And in aggregate, like Ethereum hasn't had a new all time high, right? Solana has not made a new all time high as far as I know. And bitcoin's one of the only ones because it's on its own S curve. So I think this cycle could be like turning over into the bull market. Now for the first time in four years.
Mike Alfred
Yeah. I have a couple of swiggles for you that I think are interesting. So you obviously talked about the Mag 7. That's where the focus has been. I with you agree that there's still a lot more money coming into AI and that those are likely to go. But for the first time, once again, this is the iwm, the Russell, which is small capsule. This rhymes to me of. If you look at bitcoin as the mag7.
Scott Melker
Right.
Mike Alfred
Kind of the big one. And if you thought that money was leaving the market, there was going to be a bear market, you would expect that as people sell that cash would go out of the market. Well, it's going actually into riskier things like small caps. I think that aligns with seeing XRP and Ethereum and Salana performing well even when bitcoin is going up right now. I mean take a look at iron. This thing looks like it's going to rip through all time highs in a few days. When you take a look at this chart, this is one of my longest positions from the bottom. And MicroStrategy, I'm. This is my largest position right now from the 150s.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. That's smart. Yeah.
Mike Alfred
People. And I posted it and I got the predictable response I wanted which was that I'm retarded and there's something wrong with my brain and I was dropped on my head as a kid and it's going to zero. Which is exactly what I want. Everyone telling me when I post that this is a generational buy for MicroStrategy. Right. But all of this stuff aligns with the market ramping up. I mean that. Yeah. So what is that? MicroStrategy is at 178 pre market. It closed at 172. You could have bought this in the 150s two days ago.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. And it did bounce from 155 to 180 once before. Right. And I actually tweeted at the first time it went into the 150 saying hey, we're getting to the levels now where even though I was selling in the 500s.
Mike Alfred
Yeah.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
And I was, I was one of the only large scale commentators on this space who was correctly bearish in the weeks leading up to the November 24th mania. But now I'm, I'm quite positive. I, I still own my MSDR and my ira. But my bigger sizing now is going into to. To strive because I think strive has the potential to surprise people more than mstr, I think. And I made this argument on Twitter last week, like, MSDR is going to be the largest corporate holder of bitcoin forever. People don't understand the, the scarcity of bitcoin. Like there's no way you could catch them right now because anybody who's big enough to try to catch them is going to move the market. And moving the market basically enables Saylor to accelerate the strategy. So you move the market to 120 or 150, Sailor's going to buy a shit ton more bitcoin. But the Russell 2000 is something that I've been talking about for a couple years now. I've been looking for that rotation. I've also been looking, and I started talking about this two, three years ago and I think a lot of people in my spaces are like, what the fuck is Mike talking about? But I was like, hey, the equal weighted S P is what you want to watch because the market cap weighted S P is not really telling you the full story of what's happened in the economy. And only very recently have we started to see international outperforming us, the equal weighted outperforming the market cap weighted and small caps year to date outperforming the S P. Those are exactly the conditions you'd want to see if, if you're going to start to see money flowing into crypto money going out on the risk curve. And as it relates to the treasury company thing. Yeah, I agree you were a little early when you were buying NACA over one. I said hey, it could go to 60 cents or 50 cents or whatever. And, and you know, I didn't, I.
Scott Melker
Wasn'T, I was more right about being.
Mike Alfred
Bearish on treasury companies from April until that point though.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
You were.
Mike Alfred
But I actually only very YouTube but I was a very vocal in the hype cycle when everybody also told me I was stupid and that this was.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
You were, you were correct about treasury companies being a problem, but I was also correct in sort of poo, pooing it a little bit and saying, Scott, this, this isn't big enough.
Mike Alfred
Like, wrong.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
I just said, look, you're right, the treasury companies are overvalued, but I, I don't think they're going to cause like a cataclysmic decline in bitcoin. And that's, that's exactly what's happened. We went from 126 to 80 and now we're at 95. And the treasury company mania has, has been wiped out. Now there are still good treasury company opportunities. MSTR is going to be the Biggest digital capital issuer. Over the next couple decades, it's going to be one of the biggest financial institutions in the world of any type. I think that's pretty clear. Because if bitcoin goes to a million or $2 million, they're going to be the largest holder of that asset, which is great. It's not a monopoly position, but it is a number one position in a market that probably matters substantially.
Mike Alfred
And as you said, the higher price goes, the harder it is for anyone to catch up. So it's impossible.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
I don't think he could be caught unless he dies or something.
Mike Alfred
5 billion this week. That's more than most treasury companies bought, period.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. No, and, and anybody who tries to do it quietly there, you can't go big enough to catch without the market impact. So we'll know, right? People will say, well, why is it going up? Well, the real answer is that a couple of governments decided to get into the MSTR game and they didn't tell you. Right. They're not going to come out and be like, hey, we're running a neutral reserve, you know, asset treasury strategy over the next five years that we just started today. But you're just going to see it in the price action and people are going to make up reasons, well, the whales are doing this and it must be the legislation or it must be Trump. No, it's just like a bunch of big players came to the same conclusion as strategy. And the price of bitcoin will move up before we know the whole story of what happened. There'll be an expose years later saying, oh, here's, here's how the central bank of XYZ country decided to get into the bitcoin game. And here's where they started. You show the chart and the chart will be like this. It's going to be.
Mike Alfred
They don't have to file quarterly like an American corporation to tell us exactly what they're buying and selling or what they did. Right. I mean, you can have a central bank in a Middle Eastern country either buying or mining for years before they announce that they're holding a massive position.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Strategy and strive. And companies like that have to broadcast their intentions because they're trying to manage their cost of capital. Their whole game is that as long as bitcoin outperforms the cost of capital over any period of time, then their business model works. So they have to manage their cost of capital as low as possible. Government just collects taxes. So there's no. The cost of capital is you have to live in the borders and pay taxes. Right. And so like they don't have to. I mean, maybe they provide reasonable defense and they provide, you know, reasonable services to the citizens of that country, but it's not the same sensitivity that you're going to have as a corporate bitcoin owner. So they don't have to play the same game. Anybody who's, who's a corporate holder bitcoin has to do what Saylor and Strive are doing and try to convince people to buy their preferred securities and to provide their convertibles to the extent they do that and buy their ultimate equity. Right as sitting on underneath all that stuff. Governments don't have to do that. They just keep collecting taxes. And if they're smart, they convert fiat that they can just print into an asset that can't be printed. And I think one comment that I think a lot of silver and gold people still don't get is that bitcoin's the only asset, large scale asset in the economy where the demand for that asset can't change the supply curve. Silver is a perfect example of an asset whose supply curve changes directly because of the demand as the price goes up. The best cure for high silver prices is high silver prices because you just mine and convert more silver. You can't mine bitcoin faster because you have more demand for bitcoin. You can only make 450 a day. In a couple years it'll be 225. A couple years after that it'll be 112.5. Right. So it just keeps shrinking asymptotically irrespective of the demand. So all it takes is demand spikes every few years to send Bitcoin to price discovery. But because the number of coins on an absolute basis that's being emitted by the protocol is getting so small, a small increase in demand as you go further out that curve can cause bigger price action. Contrary to what everyone's saying with, oh, there's all these institutions and futures and options out will never do what it used to do. Scarcity is still scarcity. And at certain points along that curve, with the right demand environment, Bitcoin will still do things that surprise people. And it hasn't done anything to surprise people in so long that I suspect the next time it does something could be quite dramatic.
Mike Alfred
Bitcoin never remains boring forever. We know that there's going to be something huge and we all know that one big green candle to the upside is going to change the entire narrative and sentiment. It'll take five minutes. Yep, it always does. And it will. I want to talk about what you said about the cost of capital for these companies. Clearly Saylor thinks it's worth borrowing it over 10% to buy Bitcoin. Right. What do you think moving forward is an accurate assessment of the worthy cost of capital? What interest rate you would pay on capital to buy, buy Bitcoin?
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Well, I think they're targeting, you know, sub 10% in the long run. Right.
Mike Alfred
I think STRC is paying 10%. It was just sort of the, the, my base case at the top. Yeah, yeah.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
And I think, look, if those products become more successful, the yields will come down. They, they're pricing them now to try to attract capital and, and probably you're getting a decent, if you understand Bitcoin and you believe Bitcoin's going to go up over 10 years and you look at MSTR's balance sheet right now and you realize like there's no way for them to get liquidated and they've got the cash to pay the yield for a couple years now. Like it's, it's probably a lot safer than most people think it is. And so you're probably getting a decent yield. I mean if you go into the dividend yield market for, for traditional corporations like to get a safe ield, you're talking 3 to 5% and a slightly riskier yield. I mean there's some good MLPs that are at 6, 7%. So 10% is a really good yield. You're taking bitcoin risk. But if you are comfortable with Bitcoin and you're confident it's going to grow at even 20 or 25% CAGR over the next 10 years, it should be able to outrun the cost of capital for those companies. The more I look at it, the more I go, okay, maybe there is something long term sustainable here. The issue is just that as you know, for periods of time the sequence of returns can throw you off because bitcoin can be up 200% in a year. It could also be down 50 or 80% in a year. And so not every company is going to have like a fortress balance sheet that allows them to ride out that volatility. And so some of these smaller companies that are getting in, trying to emulate Sailor, they're going to have more issues than the, the large player who can basically ignore volatility most of the time. And that's why I like against drive because they don't have any convertibles, they don't have any exploding or liquidation type of things on the balance sheet that could cause them to, you know, have the equity go to zero or to have to sell Bitcoin in order to survive. And so it's. It's basically like a call option without an expiration. Right? Because if you don't have to liquidate and there's no. There's no source of. Of liquidation pressure, then you can just wait until Bitcoin goes into more, you know, significant price discovery. And when Bitcoin goes into significant price discovery, these companies will work again. I think the. The mistake that everyone makes is they get too bullish when they're working really well, like November of 24 or Q1 of 25, when even Nakamoto was, like, flying at that time. Right. And then they get too bearish over the last month or two when, like, now is actually. If you really understood this model, now is when you actually pick through the rubble and find stuff. This is what I was doing with the bitcoin miners in December of 22, Q1 of 23. I was picking out Iron and Cipher from the rubble because I said, these companies are not like Marathon. This company's not like Riot. These companies are better. There's something different. And it may take the market two to three years to figure that out, but that's how you make money as a value investor. You don't make money by chasing the thing that everybody's in a mania about and then selling it after it's already gone down 95%. Like, these companies all went down 95%. If you're selling them there, I can't help you. You're probably never going to make money in markets. You should keep your day job.
Mike Alfred
How do you think the treasury market then shakes out, considering what we've seen? You know, there is it a merger and acquisition situation where people with bigger balance sheets buy the companies that are trading at a discount because they get their Bitcoin effectively at discount. I mean, Nakamoto is trading at a massive discount even to the Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Right. Even when you account for the debt. So is somebody going to sweep in and say, these are just a great deal. I want this Bitcoin, or, you know. Yeah, let me. Let me frame that better. You were great at picking through the rubble and finding Iron and Cipher. You've already mentioned strive. But how do you pick through the rubble and the ones that you don't pick where they headed?
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah, look, the. The reason why I got Iron and Cipher, right is because I focus on management quality and balance sheet first and Other people are focused on brand and marketing. So they like Marathon's a great bitcoin miner. And it's like, well, actually look back on the last three years. It's been one of the worst performing equities in this entire space. It was down almost 50% last year. It's only up 2 or 3x off the bottom. Iron went from a dollar to it's, whatever it is, 53. It's up 53x and it was up as much as 75x. And Marathon's up 2 or 3x. Right. And Riot's up a little bit more than that. And so I had a view back then, as I still do now, that the best management teams with real operational chops would deliver more shareholder value than teams that were pivoting into the space to try to take advantage of excited capital. Right? Basically dumb capital who wants exposure to bitcoin, which is what bitcoin miners were four or five years ago. And so they never had to be great at anything because they were still better than being a pharmaceutical company or a patent troll or whatever. Contrast that with Iron, where Iron literally was only founded because they wanted to be the best infrastructure developers in the world. They wanted to be the best at infrastructure development, running, building and running data centers. Bitcoin was just a component of off taking the energy into revenue as you were growing. Right. And so if you understand from first principles like what these companies are trying to do and who the teams are and what their backgrounds are, it can help you cut through the rubble. So right now there are a bunch of like, pretenders, in my opinion. There are a bunch of like, event planners and social media influencers who somebody gave $100 million and who don't have a track record of being business builders, don't have a track record doing anything other than tweeting. And so, yeah, they're going to struggle even if bitcoin turns around relative to people who have the operational chops or the financial acumen in order to really figure this market out again. I think Saylor is the godfather. His balance sheet is so big that you'll never catch him. The, the challenge there is just consensus expectations are that he's going to be number one. So if @ any point it looks like he's not going to be number one, then you have the chance of underperformance. I think it'll do well. I think it'll perform like bitcoin. So if bitcoin's a 30% kegr, I think MSTR will be a 30 or 40 or 50% ker. I think the where you get the surprises is when you have companies that everybody discounts because they think Strive and Nakamoto and Anthony Pompano's company, etc. Are all the same. And I would argue that one of those three is not like the others in terms of quality. And that'll prove out if I'm right over two or three years. And you'll see substantial differences in quality over that period based on the starting characteristics. Just like Iron and Cipher was not visible to very many people because most people hadn't spent the time with those teams, didn't understand their culture, their ethos, what the management was focused on, how it was different than what everyone else was focused on. And so look, people keep asking me well why do you like Strive? And it's like, well I like teams where I can look in the CEO's eyes and I know that they really care about creating shareholder value, that they care about protecting my capital. And I look at some of these guys and I don't. I think they're just into it for self enrichment. It's the same problem we had in the mining space. And the companies that were easily sort of found out early in my opinion to be sort of focused on management enrichment over shareholder value. Those companies have just dramatically underperformed over the last three years. And I don't think the treasury company space will be that.
Mike Alfred
Different. Yeah, I'm gonna let you go in a minute but I just want to show you to the point you made about the markets and it feeling different. We got bitcoin sitting now at 95 787. If this was December we would have had a thousand dollar sell off by 9:45am Every single.
Scott Melker
Day.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Yeah. And we still have 18 minutes before Jane street will, they'll sell it back down to 95 probably one more time today. In fact, I got a text this morning saying watch for a redux of the, of the 10:00am Eastern Time Slam. So look for one more bounce at 95, but I think, I think we're headed to 110. You said 112. Yeah, I've been saying space is the last 48 hours. I think the next stop is, is 110 and then we'll see how bitcoin responds at all time highs. But I think at this point there's so many more reasons for it to be higher than to be lower. And so that's probably the path of least.
Mike Alfred
Resistance. There's so many people that I talk to that are Planning to sell at 100, 101 when we get there, it feels like that's just going to get squeezed right.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Through. That's what's going to cause the run to 140 is the people once they, they already should be nervous because they didn't think it'd go above 94, then they should be really nervous. When we're near all time highs and then we push through all time highs, there's going to be a bunch of people who are out of position because of dumb analysis and chart squiggles that have nothing to do with making money in the long run and they'll be forced to chase back in. And it won't be dumb to chase. If you chase at 130 or 140 and it goes to 200 or 300, it'll still be a good idea to chase back in, but it would have been better to do nothing this whole time and just keep stacking. But again, most people are not long term fundamental investors. They're closet traders that periodically when they get into bad trade, they start to convince themselves they're long term.
Mike Alfred
Investors. I call them passionate community members. Well, just be glad you own bitcoin and not one of the over 11 million crypto tokens that failed in.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
2025. That's called survivorship bias right.
Mike Alfred
There. Just absolutely insane. So, so good job not chasing one of the 6 million tokens launched in a day on pump fund or a month. Yeah, good job. Anything I might have missed before.
Scott Melker
I let you go.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Man? No, I just, I would say there's two, two vortexes right now in the market. One of them is the gold silver complex, with a particular focus on silver because I think that's an absolute mania already. The other one is AI, which is much more sustainable and much bigger. But both of those things, to the extent at which they are drawing mindshare and capital away from crypto as they diminish a little bit, that should boost crypto up. So crypto is going to have its day again over the next year or two and I suspect it will surprise a lot of people because there's been so much negativity over the last few months and over the last year or so. So I think we're set up really well. It's a highly asymmetric environment. It's exactly the kind of environment I like to invest in. This is where you can actually get some of the most significant returns. You need the doubt and the fear to be pervasive in order to get pricing that allows you to enter at say these prices here, to ride to wherever we, we head to. And I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin goes to 300 to 500k before the next major drawdown and that may take two years. And again, most people think the cycle's already over. So they're going to be like what is, what the is Mike talking about? But as it goes higher, it'll build its own momentum. We still haven't even had the wealth space participate. I'm seeing signs, I think Eagle Brook, where I'm on the board, they had their best quarter of flows in years. In, in an environment where bitcoin went from 126 to 80, they had their best inbound flow year. And this is all like top tier RAAs allocating directly to bitcoin and Ethereum. So there are signs under the surface that, that this market wants to get more exuberant, but it needed that foundational layer of like a bunch of sticky capital building these positions. And these wealth managers want lower. They don't want to buy 150, they want to buy 80. So they got their 80 and now we're positioned for 150. So anyway, I'm quite bullish. I'm not going to make any predictions on timing anymore because people get so angry. But I think, I think it's going, we're going higher and the question is only how high and how.
Mike Alfred
Fast. So we're at 96 right now. 96.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
038. That's the fourth or fifth time we've tapped it in the last 20, less than 24 hours. So one of these times it'll break through and we'll be at 97, then 98 and then 1. 105, 110. Right. So that's where we're.
Mike Alfred
Headed. Well, I might have just cost you a lot of money because we kept you 15 minutes past your inevitable silver short. So I'm gonna let you.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Go. What's silver? What's the SLV at? Let me just check real.
Mike Alfred
Quick. I see it at.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Night. It already came down. I actually had some, I had some limits at 83.30.8340 8350 and now it's at 82. So it's going to do exactly the same thing as it's done the last few days where I'll be able to, to cover some over the next few hours and, and turn a green day again and an up silver day. And the, the best part about it is not that I've been Making money every day for like seven or eight trading days. It's that people get so angry that I could actually figure out a way to be green shorting silver when it's up. That's it's even more fun than making the money. So I'm gonna. Well, I got to get, get to it right now though, because it looks like I got a little opportunity to cover.
Scott Melker
Here. Silver.
Mike Alfred
Community coming for you guys. XRP is coming for you guys. Digital silver. I've heard that narrative. All right, guys, that's all we.
Scott Melker
Got. You have to give Mike Alfred a follow. He wakes up early here in.
Mike Alfred
Vegas to do these shows with us and has the most incredible alpha and insight. Got to keep doing this more often, man. Mike, thank you so much. I appreciate your time. Have a wonderful.
Guest Expert (Crypto/AI Analyst)
Day. All right, you too, buddy. Talk to you.
Mike Alfred
Later. Bye.
Scott Melker
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The Wolf Of All Streets with Scott Melker – January 14, 2026
In this engaging episode, Scott Melker is joined by Mike Alfred and a guest Crypto/AI analyst to deconstruct the current state of the crypto market as Bitcoin surges toward $100,000. The episode dives deep into the macro forces shaping the crypto landscape, the delayed Clarity Act in the Senate, the ongoing tussle between banks and stablecoin yield, and a strategic analysis of both traditional finance and digital asset businesses, including bitcoin miners and treasury companies. The hosts contextualize today's market action with macroeconomic trends, regulatory shifts, and powerful movements in AI and precious metals.
On Behavioral Patterns and Market Cycles:
On the Clarity Act and Regulation:
On Bitcoin Supply and Scaling:
On Tactical Trading and Sentiment:
On Unpredictability and Market Narratives:
Recommended Action:
For full details, refer to the podcast at key markers above for specific discussions.